SCM供应链管理与响应能力中英文

GOM7SupplyChainMgmt1GOM7供应链管理1ACanofCokeSmeltingRollingCanMakingLabelFillingDistributionRetailingTherearemoreopportunitiesinbettermanagementofglobalsupplychainsthanyouthink一罐可乐澳大利亚矾土矿冶炼辊压制罐贴标签填装分销零售一个英国家庭的冰箱改进全球供应链管理的机会之多超乎想象ACanofCokeSmeltingRollingCanMakingLabelFillingDistributionRetailingABritishHouseholdRefrigeratorTimeinthePipeline319Days3Hoursof“ActualWork”一罐可乐澳大利亚矾土矿冶炼辊压制罐贴标签填装分销零售一个英国家庭的冰箱流程时间319天“实际工作”3小时ACanofCokeWhy319daystodo3hoursofwork?ProductionisbatchedateverystageTransportisbatchedateverystageProductgoesthroughanaverageof14storagelotsandwarehousesEverystep(plants,transports,warehouses,sales….)IsmaximizingitsownoperationalefficiencyIsthistoomuchlocaloptimizationandnotenough globaloptimization?一罐可乐为什么319天做3个小时的工作？每个阶段批量生产每个阶段批量运输每件产品平均经过14次存储和入库每一步骤（工厂、运输、仓储、销售……）都在最大限度地提高其运转效率是不是局部最优化过多而全球最优化不足？SCResponsivenessConsumersMakingthesupplychainsmoreresponsiveIsnoteasyMultiplepartiesLagged&distortedinformationflowsVariabilityandunpredictabilityImbalanceSpeciallyforsupplychainsacrossnationalboundaries供应链的响应能力客户提高供应链的响应能力不容易多方面信息流滞后、扭曲可变性和不可预测性失衡特别是跨国供应链SCResponsivenessConsumersWhatcanwedo?CoordinatetheSupplyChainRedesigntheSupplyChainManagetheDemandAvoidthe“Bullwhip”Effect供应链的响应应能力客户怎么办？协调供应链重新设计供应应链需求管理避免“皮鞭鞭”效应SCResponsivenessThe“Bullwhip”EffectOrdervariabilitytendstoincreaseaswemoveupthesupplychainlikethe“bullwhip”CONSUMERSThe“BeerGame”example供应链的响应应能力“皮鞭”效应应沿类似于皮鞭鞭的供应链上上移时，定单单的可变性呈呈上升趋势客户“啤酒游戏”示例SCResponsivenessCoordinatethesupplychain1.ShareMoreInformationPOSDataForecasts(shareanddojointly)Schedules(shareanddocollaboratively)供应链的响应应能力协调供应链1.增加共享信息息供应产品（POS）数据预测（共同分分享与共同进进行）供应链计划（（共同分享与与协作进行））SCResponsivenessCoordinatethesupplychain2.ChangeControlsintheChannelVendorManagedInventoryConsignmentStocks“Sell-through”SupplierSupplierSupplier供应链的响应应能力协调供应链2.改变渠道控制制卖方管理的存货代销存货“零售量”供应商供应商供应商ConsumersIntra-OperationInitiative3.CreateMoreOperationalFlexibilityInvestinpostponementIncreasemodularityShareplatforms/CommoncomponentsReducechangeovercosts(andbatchsizes)ReduceweightofcapacityutilizationasKPI供应链的响应应能力客户运营内部举措措3.创造更多的运运营灵活性延期方面的投投资增加模化程度度共享平台/共用元件减少转换成本本（和批量大大小）降低作为关键键绩效指标（（KPI）设备利用率率的重要要性ConsumersWhatcanwedo?RedesigntheSupplyChainManagetheDemandFitthesupplychaintoProduct’s““clockspeed”供应链的响应应能力客户怎么办？协调供应链减少供应链需求管理使供应链与产产品的“时时钟速率”相相适应TherootcauseoftheproblemsplaguingmanysupplychainsisamismatchbetweenthetypeofproductandthetypeofsupplychainSCResponsiveness供应链的响应应能力造成问题困扰扰许多供应链链的根本原因因在于产品类型型和供应链类类型不相匹配配SCResponsiveness“Functional””vs.““Innovative”productsDifferent““ClockSpeeds”“Functional”” “Innovative””GasolinePrintersPencilsDigitalcamerasCerealsFashionapparelFittheSupplyChaintoProduct’s“Clockspeed””MatchMismatchMismatchMatchFunctionalProductsInnovativeProductsPhysicallyEfficientSupplyChainMarketResponsiveSupplyChain供应链的响应应能力“功能”产产品对“创创新”产品品的不同“时钟钟速率”“功能”产品““创新”产产品汽油打印机铅笔数码照相机谷物时装服饰使供应链与产产品的““时钟速率”相适应匹配不匹配不匹配匹配功能产品创创新产品物理效率高的的供应链市场响应型的的供应链SCResponsivenessFunctional(PredictableDemand)Innovative(UnpredictableDemand)AspectsofDemandProductlifecycleMorethan2years3monthsto1yearContributionmargin*5%to20%20%to60%ProductvarietyLow(10to20variantspercategory)High(oftenmillionsofvariantspercategory)Averagemarginoferrorintheforecastatthetimeproductioniscommitted10%40%to100%Averagestockoutrate1%to2%10%to40%Averageforcedendofseasonmarkdownaspercentageoffullprice0%10%to25%Leadtimerequiredformade-to-orderproducts6monthsto1year1dayto2weeks*Thecontributionmarginequalspriceminusvariablecostdividedbypriceandisexpressedasapercentage供应链的反应应能力功能型(可预测需求)创新型(需求不可预测)各需求方面产品寿命周期2年以上3个月到1年边际收益*5%至20%20%至60%产品多样性低(每一类别10至20种)高(往往每一类别数百万种)委托产品时预报误差平均幅度10%40%至100%平均脱销率1%至2%10%至40%被迫终止季节性降价平均占全价百分比0%10%至25%按单产品所需的前导时间6个月至1年1日至2周*边际收益等于价格减去各项成本，再除以价格，用百分率表示。SCResponsivenessPhysicallyEfficientProcessMarket-ResponsiveProcessPrimarypurposeSupplypredictabledemandefficientlyatthelowestpossiblecostRespondquicklytounpredictabledemandinordertominimizestockouts,forcedmarkdowns,andobsoleteinventoryManufacturingfocusMaintainhighaverageutilizationrateDeployexcessbuffercapacityInventorystrategyGeneratehighturnsandminimizeinventorythroughoutthechaindeploysignificantbufferstocksofpartsorfinishedgoodsLeadtimefocusShortenleadtimeaslongasitdoesn’tincreasecostInvestaggressivelyinwaystoreduceleadtimeApproachtochoosingsuppliersSelectprimarilyforcostandqualitySelectprimarilyforspeed,flexibility,andqualityProduct-designstrategyMaximizeperformanceandminimizecostUsemodulardesigninordertopostponeproductdifferentiationforaslongaspossible供应链的响应应能力物理效率过程市场响应过程基本目的以最低成本有效供应可预测需求对不可预测的需求快速响应，以便最大限度地减少库存匮乏、被迫降价和过时存货制造重心保持高度的平均利用率配置超额缓冲能力库存战略生成高周转率，实现整个供应链库存最小化配置大量部件及成品缓冲库存前导时间焦点在不增加成本的前提下尽量缩短前导时间在缩短前导时间的途径上进取性投资选择供应商的方法以成本和质量为首选以速度、灵活性和质量为首选产品设计战略绩效最大化，成本最小化采用模块设计，尽可能推迟产品异质化SCResponsivenessGetoutoftheupperrighthandcellToothpasteisaproductcategoryinwhichamovetotheleft——frominnovativetofunctional——makessense.Yetbecausetheindustryhaslargelyretaineditsemphasisonaphysicallyefficientsupplychain,mostcomputercompaniesfindthemselvesfirmlypositionedintheupperright-handcell.Alean,efficientdistributionchannelisexactlyrightforfunctionalcarsbuttotallyinappropriateforinnovativecars,whichrequireinventorybufferstoabsorbuncertaintyindemand.供应链的响应应能力脱离右侧单元元上游牙膏是一个产产品类别，在在这个类别中中向左侧移动动——即从创新型移移向功能型——是合理的。但是，由于该该产业大都保保持以物理效效率供应链为为重点，多数数计算机公司司发现自己牢牢牢地处于右右侧单元上游游的位置。精益、高效的的分销渠道对对功能型轿车车来说完全正正确，但是对对创新型轿车车来说则根本本不适用，因因其需要库存存缓冲来吸收收需求中的不不确定性。SCResponsivenessResponsivesupplyofinnovativeproductsThefirststepissimplytoacceptthatuncertaintyisinherentininnovativeproductsOnceacompanyhasacceptedtheuncertaintyofdemand,itcanemploythreecoordinatedstrategiestomanagethatuncertainty:Itcancontinuetostrivetoreduceuncertainty—forexample,byfindingsourcesofnewdatathatcanserveasleadingindicatorsorbyhavingdifferentproductssharecommoncomponentsasmuchaspossiblesothatthedemandforcomponentsbecomesmorepredictable.供应链的响应应能力创新产品的反反应性供应第一步只不过过是接受这一事实：不不确定性是创创新产品所固固有的。一旦一个公司司承认了需求求的不确定性性，它就可以以运用三种相相互协调的策策略对这种不不确定性予以以管理：它可以继续致致力于降低不确定性——譬如通过找到到可以充当前前导指标的新新数据来源；；或者通过让让不同产品共共享尽可能多多的共用元件件，以提高元元件需求的可可预测性。SCResponsivenessItcanavoiduncertaintybycuttingleadtimesandincreasingthesupplychain’’sflexibilitysothatitcanproducetoorderoratleastmanufacturetheproductatatimeclosertowhendemandmaterializesandcanbeaccuratelyforecast.Onceuncertaintyhasbeenreducedoravoidedasmuchaspossible,itcanhedgeagainsttheremainingresidualuncertaintywithbuffersofinventoryorexcesscapacityNewmovement:masscustomization(buildingtheabilitytocustomizealargevolumeofproductsanddeliverthematclosetomass-productionpricesSportObermeyer’’sapproach,whichhasbeencalledaccurateresponse,hascutthecostofbothoverproductionandunderproductioninhalf—enoughtoincreaseprofitsby60%.供应链的响应应能力它可以通过缩缩短前导时间间和增加供应应链的灵活性性来避免不确确定性，这样样，它就可以以按订单生产产，或者至少少可以在临近近需求实现并并可进行准确确预报的时间间点上制造产产品。一旦不确定定性得到尽尽可能的减减少或避免免，它就可可以通过利利用库存缓缓冲力或超超剩余产能能来防范残残余的不确确定性。新发展：大大量定制化化（培养大大量产品的的定制化能能力，并以以接近批量量生产的价价格发货））奥伯迈耶体体育用品公公司采用的的方法，即即所谓精确确响应，将将生产过剩剩和生产不不足的成本本都降低了了一半——足以将利润润提高60%。Theintangiblecostsofcoordinationincludethecostofinventorymeanttoensurethatproductsareavailable.Reason1:managerstypicallyplaceorderswiththeirownsuppliersbeforetheyreceivetheir““customers”orders,sotheymustforecast—orguess—howmuchdemandtherewillbeforwhichoftheirlargevarietyofitems.SportObermeyerplacesitsordersinNovember,butonlyreceivesitsfirstordersfromretailersinMarch,allforasellingseasonthatbeginsinSeptemberReason2:Theorganizationsinsupplychainoftendonotshareinformationaboutsalesforecasts;instead,eachlevelofthesupplychainusesfinishedgoodsinventorytotrytohaveonhandwhatisneededfortheircustomers:eachsuppliermakesextraorders““just-in-case,”swellingrawmaterialsandfinishedgoodsinventories.Becausetheypassordersupanddownthesupplychainwithlotsofguessing,they(inaddition)tendtoexaggeratesmallchangesseenattheconsumerlevel-justasinalargegameoftelephoneinwhicheachpersonwhispersthemessagetheyheartothenextperson,butthemessagebecomehighlygarbledafterafairlyshortseriesoftransmissionsSketchofSportObermeyerTimingofOperationsandOrdersThroughouttheYear协调方面的的无形成本本包括为确确保产品供供应而付出出的库存成成本理由1:经理人一般般在他们收收到“客户户”订单之之前向自己己的供应商商提出订单单，因此，，他们必须须预测———或者猜测测——其种种类繁多的的货品当中中到底哪一一种商品有有需求、需需求量有多多大。奥伯伯迈耶体育育用品公司司在11月份提出订订单，但直直到次年3月才收到首首批零售商商的订单，，全部是为为9月份开始的的销售季节节订的货。。理由2:供应链上的的各个单位位一般不共共享销售预预测信息；；而供应链链的每一层层都尽量利利用成品库库存保证现现货以应客客户所需：：每个供应应商都超额额订购只为为“以防万万一”，使使得原材料料和成品存存货猛增。。由于在供供应链中向向上和向下下传递订单单时带有大大量的猜测测因素，他他们（还））倾向于夸夸大发生在在客户层的的微小变化化———就象象一一场场大大型型的的电电话话游游戏戏，，每每个个人人都都把把自自己己听听到到的的信信息息悄悄声声传传给给下下一一个个人人，，但但是是经经过过短短短短的的一一段段传传递递之之后后，，原原来来的的信信息息已已经经面面目目全全非非了了。。奥伯伯迈迈耶耶体体育育用用品品公公司司全全年年运运作作和和订订单单时时间间选选择择略略图图November(previousyear)NovemberMarchAugustSeptemberFebruary

FarEastTakeorders

MakefabricAssembleclothesDelivertoColorado

ColoradoDesignclothesMakeforecastsofsalesandhotstylesOrdertextilesandstylesLasVegasshowWarehouseDistributiontoretailers

AmericanretailersMakeorderstoSportORetailseason11月（上一年）11月3月8月9月2月远东

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制衣

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设计服装

销量和热门款式预测

订购纺织品和款式

拉斯维加斯展销会

仓库

分销给零售商美国零售商

向奥伯麦耶公司提出订单

零售季节SCResponsivenessConsumersWhatcanwedo?RedesigntheSupplyChainManagetheDemand供应应链链的的响响应应能能力力客户户怎么么办办？？协调调供供应应链链重新新设设计计供供应应链链需求求管管理理运用用动动态态定定价价和和高高度度协协调调的的市场场推推广广手手段段SCResponsivenessConsumersSummaryCoordinatetheSupplyChainRedesigntheSupplyChainManagetheDemandAvoidthe“Bullwhip””EffectWatchthe“Clockspeed””Managethe“Yield””供应应链链的的响响应应能能力力客户户小结结协调调供供应应链链重新新设设计计供供应应链链需求求管管理理避免免““皮皮鞭鞭””效效应应观察察““时时钟钟速速率率””管理理“产出出””SCResponsivenessASimpleRuleRegardInventoryVelocityasaKeyPerformanceIndicator(KPI)Foreveryoneinthechain供应应链链的的响响应应能能力力客户户一条条简简单单规规则则：：将存存货货速速度度视视为为供供应应链链上上每每个个人人的的一一项项关键键绩绩效效指指标标(KPI)GlobalIssuesDutiesanddrawbackTaxesExchangeratesTransferpricingLocalcontentandoffsettradeMultipletransportmodes全球球性性的的问问题题关税税和和进进口口退退税税税收汇率转让价价当地含含量和和补偿偿贸易易联运方方式TypicalTypesofAnalysesManufacturing/ServicesStrategyHowmanyplantsdoIneed?Whereshouldeachplantbelocated?Whatproductsshouldeachmake?Whatprocesstechnologiesshouldeachhaveandhowmuchofeachprocessisneeded?Whatpartoftheworldshouldeachplantserve?典型的的分析析类型型制造/服务策策略我需要要多少少工厂厂？每个工工厂设设在哪哪儿？？每个厂厂应该该制造造什么么产品品？每个厂厂应该该有什什么样样的工工艺技技术，，每个个工艺艺需要要多长长时间间？每个工工厂应应该面面向世世界哪哪个地地区服服务？？TypicalTypesofAnalysesSupplyBaseDesign/VendorConsolidationHowdoIsimultaneouslyperformsupplierselectionforallthepartsinthesamecommoditygroup?Howmanysuppliersisbestandwhichsuppliersshouldsendwhichpartstowhichplants?OutsourcingWhatpartsofmysupplychainshouldIkeep““in-house”andwhatpartstooutsource?Whatifathirdpartyhasahighervariablecostbutalowerfixedcostthanin-houseproduction?典型的的分析析类型型供应基基地设设计/卖方合合并我如何何从同同一商商品组组中同同时选选择所所有零零部件件的供供应商商？有多少少最佳佳供应应商，，哪些些供应应商应应把哪哪些零零部件件发给给哪些些工厂厂？外购我应该该把我我的供供应链链上的的哪些些部分分留在在“内内部””，哪哪些部部分进进行外外购？？如果有有第三三方的的可变变成本本比内内部生生产高高而固固定成成本较较低，，那该该怎么么办？？TypicalTypesofAnalysesNewProductPipelineDesignHowshouldIfitthenewproductintomycurrentsupplychain?ShouldIsingleormultiplesourcethisproduct?Howmuchdomyfixedcostsaffectthisdecision?Whatisthecross-overpointtoopenupasecondandthirdsourceofsupply?MergersandAcquisitionsConstantlyredesigningtheglobalflow典型的的分析析类型型新产品品的传传输渠渠道设设计我该如如何把把这个个新产产品安安放到到现有有的供供应链链上？？这个产产品需需要单单渠道道供应应源还还是多多渠道道供应应源？？我的固固定成成本对对这一一决定定的影影响有有多大大？开辟第第二和和第三三供应应源的的交叉叉点是是什么么？并购不断地地重新新设计计全球球性的的流动动。SupplyChainDisruptionsAnalyzetheeffectsofstrategicdisruptionsUnexpectedloss/changeofasupplychainpartnerWaystomitigatethethreatWhatarethekeyquestionsandissues供应链链中断断分析战战略性性中断断的影影响供应链链伙伴伴的意意外损损失/变更减少威威胁的的办法法主要疑疑问和和议题题LISTOFMAJORCOSTCATEGORIESFORAGLOBALSUPPLYCHAINManufacturingCosts:PurchasedMaterials;Labor;EquipmentCharge(fixed),Supplier’sMarginMovementCosts:Transportationcost;InventoryinPipelineandSafetyStockCost;DutyIncentiveCosts/Subsidies:TaxesandSubsidiesIntangibleCosts:(Conformance)QualityCosts;ProductAdaptationorPerformanceCosts;CoordinationCostsOverheadCostsTotalCurrentLandedCostsSensitivitytoLong-termChanges:ProductivityandWageChanges;ExchangeRateChanges;ProductDesign;CoreCompetence全球供应链的主要成本类别清单制造成本：采购原料；劳动力；设备费用（固定）；供应商的毛利移动成本：运输成本；经济订货批量和安全储备成本；关税奖励成本/补贴：税金和补贴无形成本：(一致性)质量成本；产品适应性或性能成本；协调成本运营（间接）成本现行离岸总成本对长期变化的灵敏度：生产率和工资变化；汇率变化；产品设计；核心竞争力ComparisonofInternationalandDomesticSupplyChainsforOneShoeCompanyThePW.Minorcompanymadeprescription-readycomfortshoesforsickfeetinsixty-sixsize-widthvariations.Thecostswerecomputedin1985,whenthe““AllInNewYork””shoesweresoldatretailfor$80apair.Theforeignoptionshoes(slightlyinferiormaterialsandlesshand-fitting)weretoretailfor$50,tobesoldtodealersfor$21,andtobecoveredbyMedicare.Usingthetabletoguideevaluationoftheoptionsisenlightening*ForallNYoption,the$1.33ininventorycostpershoeisincludedinmanufacturingoverhead**Theinventoryfiguresfortheseoptionsarecalculatedfromasimplemodelassuminga98%fillrateisrequiredinNewYork.一家鞋鞋业公公司的的国际际和国国内供供应链链比较较PW.Minor公司为为脚病病患者者制造造休闲闲处方方鞋，，计有有66种宽度度尺寸寸。成成本计计算于于1985年，当当时““全全部在在纽约约”的的零零售鞋鞋价为为80美元/双。供供国外外选用用的鞋鞋（材材质和和手感感稍差差）的的零售售价为为50美元/双，卖卖给经经销商商的价价格是是21美元/双，且且属于于““老年年保健健医疗疗”（（Medicare）范围围。以以下下表为为指导导对各各种选选择项项进行行评估估很有有启发发性。。*在““全部部在纽纽约””一项中中，每每双鞋鞋的制制造费费用含含1.33美元的的库存存成本本。**根据一一个假假定在在纽约约需要要98%的供货货率的的简单单模型型对这这些选选项的的存货货量进进行计计算。。Order-to-deliveryLeadtimeManufacturingcost:DutyplustransportInventoryperpairofshoes:Overhead:Deliveredcost: