凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件

Howdoesthestockmarketaffectbusinessinvestment?Therearethreedirecteffects.股票市場如何影響商業投資?主要有三方面。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Oneisthatthemarkethastraditionallyservedasageneralbarometeroftheexpectationsofthebusiness-mindedcommunityasawhole.首先，股市一向為重要指標，能大略觀察出投資人的投資型態。barometer氣壓計,晴雨表;指標OneisthatthemarkethastraWesay“business-minded”ratherthan“business”becausethedemandfor,andsupplyfor,securitiesmainlycomesfromsecuritiesdealers,stockbrokers,andtheinvestingpublic,ratherthanfromnon-financialbusinessenterprisesthemselves.我們用「投資人」而不是「商業界」，因為證券交易的供需並非來自企業本身，而是證券商、股票交易員與投資大眾。securitiesdealer證券交易商stockbroker股票交易員Wesay“business-minded”ratheWhenthemarketisbuoyant,ithasbeenasignaltobusinessthatthe“businessclimate”isfavorable,andtheeffectonwhatKeynescalledthe“animalspirits”ofexecutiveshasbeentoencouragethemtogoaheadwithexpansionplans.當市場走向樂觀，代表景氣看好，而那些被凱恩斯形容為「野心勃勃」的主管、經理們，也將更勇於放手一搏、拓展企業。buoyant上漲的;能浮起的Whenthemarketisbuoyant,itWhenthemarketisfalling,ontheotherhand,spiritstendtobedampened,andexecutivesmaythinktwicebeforeembarkingonanexpansionprograminthefaceofgeneralpessimism.但另一方面，假如市場趨弱、投資人信心受打擊，主管們也不得不屈就現實、再三評估。dampen使消沉;抑制Whenthemarketisfalling,onThistraditionalrelationshipis,however,greatlylessenedbythegrowingpowerofgovernmenttoinfluencethetrendofeconomicevents.然而，隨著政府對經濟走向的影響力日益增大，前述的傳統關係影響也日趨衰弱。

lessen削弱,減弱ThistraditionalrelationshipBusinessoncelookedtothemarketasthekeysignalforthefuture.TodayitlookstoWashington.商界曾經將股市視為未來走向的一大指標，但今天這個地位被政府取代了。BusinessoncelookedtothemaHence,duringthepastdecadewhenthestockmarkethasshownwideswings,businessinvestmentinplantandequipmenthasremainedbasicallysteady.因此，不管過去幾十年來股市是如何的大起大落，商界在工廠及設備的投資上還是保持穩定。Hence,duringthepastdecadeThisreflectsthefeelingsofcorporatemanagersthatgovernmentpolicywillkeeptheeconomygrowing,whatever“themarket”maythinkofevents.這也反映出企業管理者對政府的看法，他們認為無論股市的表現如何，政策都足以讓經濟穩定成長。ThisreflectsthefeelingsofAseconddirecteffectofthestockmarketoninvestmenthastodowiththeeaseofissuingnewsecurities.股市對投資的另一直接影響是，使債券發行輕而易舉。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Oneofthewaysinwhichinvestmentisfinancedisthroughtheissuanceofnewstocksorbondswhoseproceedswillpurchaseplantandequipment.在投資購買新工廠和設備時，可以發行新股票或債券來籌措資金。

issuance發行,發佈OneofthewaysinwhichinvesWhenthemarketisrising,itismucheasiertofloatanewissuethanwhenpricesarefalling.當市場景氣好時，上市新的股票會比在景氣差時來的容易。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Thisisparticularlytrueforcertainbusiness—publicutilities,forexample—thatdependheavilyonstockissuesfornewcapitalratherthanonretainedearnings.這對部分的產業而言，為了新資金的挹入，它倚重股票收益的程度大於保留盈餘，公用事業尤是如此。retainedearnings(會計)保留盈餘ThisisparticularlytrueforFinally,whenthemarketisverylow,companieswith

large

retainedearningsmaybetemptedtobuyupothercompanies,ratherthanusetheirfundsforcapitalexpenditure.最後，當市況低迷時，擁有大筆利潤的公司可能會收購其他家公司，而非當資本支出使用。capitalexpenditure【會計】資本支出;基本建設費用Finally,whenthemarketisveFinancialinvestment,inotherwords,maytaketheplaceofrealinvestment.換句話說，金融投資可能會取代實質投資。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Thishelpssuccessfulcompaniesgrow,butdoesnotdirectlyprovidegrowthfortheeconomyasawhole.這會促進大企業的發展，但並不直接帶動整體經濟的提升。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件BackgroundInformation凱恩斯的”animalspirits”理論BackgroundInformation凱恩斯的”ani"Evenapartfromtheinstabilityduetospeculation,thereistheinstabilityduetothecharacteristicofhumannaturethatalargeproportionofourpositiveactivitiesdependonspontaneousoptimismratherthanmathematicalexpectations,whethermoralorhedonisticoreconomic.Most,probably,ofourdecisionstodosomethingpositive,thefullconsequencesofwhichwillbedrawnoutovermanydaystocome,canonlybetakenastheresultof

animalspirits-aspontaneousurgetoactionratherthaninaction,andnotastheoutcomeofaweightedaverageofquantitativebenefitsmultipliedbyquantitativeprobabilities.""Evenapartfromtheinstabili「股市極易為大量無知的群眾心理所影響，而產生劇烈波動，而一些投資大戶的神經、鬱悶，甚至他們的消化情形和對天氣的反應都會造成股市的震盪，而這樣劇烈的波動是無法以數學模型加以評估的，投資股市儘可依過去經驗加以計算，但股市裡還是憑幻念、運氣行事者居多。」

「股市極易為大量無知的群眾心理所影響，而產生劇烈波動，而一些股市長期而言→須審慎評估短期而言→非理性居多例子：去年十月北韓試爆核彈，韓股重創，散戶狂拋，殊料隨後韓股大漲，使得出脫股票者扼腕不已；二千年秋政府停建核四，股價大跌，許多人認為撿便宜的時候到了，結果股市在兩個月內由七千一百點跌至四千八百點股市長期而言→須審慎評估Howdoesthestockmarketaffectbusinessinvestment?Therearethreedirecteffects.股票市場如何影響商業投資?主要有三方面。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Oneisthatthemarkethastraditionallyservedasageneralbarometeroftheexpectationsofthebusiness-mindedcommunityasawhole.首先，股市一向為重要指標，能大略觀察出投資人的投資型態。barometer氣壓計,晴雨表;指標OneisthatthemarkethastraWesay“business-minded”ratherthan“business”becausethedemandfor,andsupplyfor,securitiesmainlycomesfromsecuritiesdealers,stockbrokers,andtheinvestingpublic,ratherthanfromnon-financialbusinessenterprisesthemselves.我們用「投資人」而不是「商業界」，因為證券交易的供需並非來自企業本身，而是證券商、股票交易員與投資大眾。securitiesdealer證券交易商stockbroker股票交易員Wesay“business-minded”ratheWhenthemarketisbuoyant,ithasbeenasignaltobusinessthatthe“businessclimate”isfavorable,andtheeffectonwhatKeynescalledthe“animalspirits”ofexecutiveshasbeentoencouragethemtogoaheadwithexpansionplans.當市場走向樂觀，代表景氣看好，而那些被凱恩斯形容為「野心勃勃」的主管、經理們，也將更勇於放手一搏、拓展企業。buoyant上漲的;能浮起的Whenthemarketisbuoyant,itWhenthemarketisfalling,ontheotherhand,spiritstendtobedampened,andexecutivesmaythinktwicebeforeembarkingonanexpansionprograminthefaceofgeneralpessimism.但另一方面，假如市場趨弱、投資人信心受打擊，主管們也不得不屈就現實、再三評估。dampen使消沉;抑制Whenthemarketisfalling,onThistraditionalrelationshipis,however,greatlylessenedbythegrowingpowerofgovernmenttoinfluencethetrendofeconomicevents.然而，隨著政府對經濟走向的影響力日益增大，前述的傳統關係影響也日趨衰弱。

lessen削弱,減弱ThistraditionalrelationshipBusinessoncelookedtothemarketasthekeysignalforthefuture.TodayitlookstoWashington.商界曾經將股市視為未來走向的一大指標，但今天這個地位被政府取代了。BusinessoncelookedtothemaHence,duringthepastdecadewhenthestockmarkethasshownwideswings,businessinvestmentinplantandequipmenthasremainedbasicallysteady.因此，不管過去幾十年來股市是如何的大起大落，商界在工廠及設備的投資上還是保持穩定。Hence,duringthepastdecadeThisreflectsthefeelingsofcorporatemanagersthatgovernmentpolicywillkeeptheeconomygrowing,whatever“themarket”maythinkofevents.這也反映出企業管理者對政府的看法，他們認為無論股市的表現如何，政策都足以讓經濟穩定成長。ThisreflectsthefeelingsofAseconddirecteffectofthestockmarketoninvestmenthastodowiththeeaseofissuingnewsecurities.股市對投資的另一直接影響是，使債券發行輕而易舉。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Oneofthewaysinwhichinvestmentisfinancedisthroughtheissuanceofnewstocksorbondswhoseproceedswillpurchaseplantandequipment.在投資購買新工廠和設備時，可以發行新股票或債券來籌措資金。

issuance發行,發佈OneofthewaysinwhichinvesWhenthemarketisrising,itismucheasiertofloatanewissuethanwhenpricesarefalling.當市場景氣好時，上市新的股票會比在景氣差時來的容易。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Thisisparticularlytrueforcertainbusiness—publicutilities,forexample—thatdependheavilyonstockissuesfornewcapitalratherthanonretainedearnings.這對部分的產業而言，為了新資金的挹入，它倚重股票收益的程度大於保留盈餘，公用事業尤是如此。retainedearnings(會計)保留盈餘ThisisparticularlytrueforFinally,whenthemarketisverylow,companieswith

large

retainedearningsmaybetemptedtobuyupothercompanies,ratherthanusetheirfundsforcapitalexpenditure.最後，當市況低迷時，擁有大筆利潤的公司可能會收購其他家公司，而非當資本支出使用。capitalexpenditure【會計】資本支出;基本建設費用Finally,whenthemarketisveFinancialinvestment,inotherwords,maytaketheplaceofrealinvestment.換句話說，金融投資可能會取代實質投資。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件Thishelpssuccessfulcompaniesgrow,butdoesnotdirectlyprovidegrowthfortheeconomyasawhole.這會促進大企業的發展，但並不直接帶動整體經濟的提升。凯恩斯的animalspirits理论课件BackgroundInformation凱恩斯的”animalspirits”理論BackgroundInformation凱恩斯的”ani"Evenapartfromtheinstabilityd