罗德里克 再论重商主义

RoadstoProsperity——通向繁荣之路再论重商主义DaniRodrik剑桥——当一位商人走进政府部长的办公室并表示他需要得到帮助时，部长该作何反应？是请他坐下喝杯咖啡，问问政府如何才能帮得上忙？还是根据政府不应向商界施以恩惠的原则，将他赶出门外？这一问题正是对决策者和经济学家们的一次罗沙哈测验。自由市场的狂热追随者与新古典经济学家是其中一派的代表，他们坚信国家与商业之间界限分明。在这一派看来，政府的职责在于确立明晰的规则与规制措施，之后便应对商业自身的沉浮听之任之。公职官员应该与私人利益保持一定距离，绝不应献媚于后者。起主宰作用的应当是消费者，而非生产者。这一观点反映了一种历史久远而又令人尊敬的传统，它可以追溯至亚当·斯密，并在今日的经济学教科书中继续占据着傲人的位置。它也是美英以及其他以盎格鲁—美利坚思想脉络为组织原则的社会中，关于治理的主导观点——尽管实际做法时常会背离理想化的原则。另一派的代表则是可被我们称为社团主义者或新重商主义者的派别，在他们看来，政府与商业之间的联盟关系对于良好的经济表现与社会和谐而言是至关重要的。在这一模式中，经济运行需要一个能急切地倾听商界要求，并在必要的情况下通过提供刺激、补贴与其他非界定权益为商业运作助力的政权机关。鉴于投资与工作岗位的创造保证了经济的繁荣，因此政府政策的目标应当旨在取悦生产者，而严格死板的规则与不近人情的决策者只会扼杀商业阶层的勃勃生机。这一观点所反映出的是一种更为古老的传统，可一直追溯到十七世纪的重商主义实践。重商主义者相信国家扮演着积极的经济角色：促进出口、阻碍制成品进口、确立能使商界与国王共同获益的贸易垄断局面。这一理念在今日亚洲出口超级大国（其中以中国最为显著）的实践中延续着生命。在这两种资本主义模式的较量中，亚当·斯密与他的信徒们在知识层面取得了决定性的胜利；但在实践中，情况却更为暧昧。过去几十年的经济增长获胜者（上世纪五六十年代的日本、六十到八十年代的韩国以及自八十年代初开始的中国）有一个共同点，它们都拥有与大企业合作密切，而且主动配合的政府。这些政府都非常积极地促进投资与出口，与此同时阻碍进口（或对此不表明态度）。中国近年来对于高储蓄、高贸易顺差式经济的追求正体现着重商主义的教义。早期的重商主义也需要得到重新认识。如果没有政府提供的刺激措施，如垄断许可证，那么十六、十七世纪洲际贸易是否还有可能经历巨大的扩展便值得怀疑。正如许多经济史学家指出的那样，重商主义为英国提供的贸易网络与利润，或许对于启动十八世纪中叶该国的工业革命具有关键性的作用。以上这些观点并不是想将重商主义行为理想化，这一行为的负面效果显而易见。政府将会非常轻易地被商界收入彀中，最终的结果将是任人唯亲与权力寻租，而非经济获得增长。即便这一做法在初期能有所斩获，那些有利于商界的政府干预措施也会在其失效后继续存在并日渐僵化。对贸易顺差的追求将不可避免地引发与贸易伙伴国的冲突，重商主义政策的有效性也在一定程度上仰仗其他国家没有采取相似的措施。此外，单边的重商主义也并不能确保胜券在握。中美贸易关系看上去仿佛是天造之和，一方是重商主义的奉行者，另一方则是自由主义的典范；但事后回首，人们会清楚地发现这一关系只会走向崩溃。其结果是，中国将不得不对其经济战略进行重大变革，而目前它还尚未做好准备。尽管存有诸多弊端，但重商主义思想还是为决策者们提供了一些重要优势：更容易获得关于私人经济活动所面对的限制与机遇的反馈；有能力创造出一种以经济为中心的国策。自由主义者可以从中受益良多。的确，没有注意到紧密的国家—商业关系所具备的优势，正是当代经济自由主义的盲点；只要看看在美国对于本次金融危机起因的追查情况，我们便能明白。目前的常规观点是将责任直接归咎于近几十年来、在决策者与金融业界之间发展出的密切关系上。对于学究型自由主义者来说，国家应与业界保持距离，纯粹扮演一个消费者权益的理想化守护者。但问题并不是政府过多地听信了华尔街自由派的观点；相反，问题出在政府没有足够倾听来自那些银行从业者和创新者的声音。这便能解释这一事实：为何那些未经验证的、关于有效市场与自我监管的经济理论能取代常识，使得金融大亨们对金钱过度索取，而包括政府在内的其它所有人却要为其清理烂摊子。丹尼·罗德瑞克系哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院政治经济学教授，社会科学研究委员会艾伯特·赫希曼奖第一届得主。其最新著作为《相同的经济学，不同的政策处方：全球化、制度建设和经济增长》。TheGlobalizationParadox:DemocracyandtheFutureoftheWorldEconomy.网友的评论：tvselvakumaran08:2226Jul09ATwistintheTaleTheproposaltoreconsidermercantilism,inProfessorDaniRodrik'slatestarticleonProjectSyndicate,providesamuchneededcreativeoutletforfearsofreverse-colonizationamongWesternintellectuals.Thehistoryofthe20thcenturyisoneofAmericantriumphalism.Thedevelopmentofeconomictheoryduringthistimehasproceededwithscrupulousadherencetomathematicalprinciples.Consequently,publicdiscussionsamongWesternintellectualsaboutthecurrentglobaleconomiccrisisdwellsalmostexclusivelyontheGreatDepressionandthestagflationofthe1970s.Moreover,theonlyperspectivesonthesetwolandmarkeventsthateconomistsdiscussinpublicorwriteaboutarethemonetaristandtheKeynesian.Inparticular,theinternationalistviewontheGreatDepressionthatwaspursuedbyProfessorRobertMundellamongothershasbeenoverlooked.Whileconsiderationsofeconomichistoryhasbeenrestrictedtotheeventsofthe20thcenturyforthereasonsmentionedabove,theapplicationofbehavioralpsychologytoeconomicshaslargelyreliedontechniquesfromwithineconomics(i.e.,fromeconometrics,Keynesiantheory,gametheory,informationeconomics,etc.).Asaresultofsuchintellectualisolationforaprolongedperiodoftime,thevastmajorityofeconomistsarefindingthemselvesill-equippedtothinkeffectivelyaboutthecurrenteconomiccrisis.Withoutanadequateintellectualframeworkforunderstandingtheprofessionalissuesthathavebeenbotheringthem,theseeconomistsareunabletofindareleaseforthepent-upfearsofreverse-colonizationthathavebeenbuildingupsteadilyintheirmindsduringthelastfewyears,asadirectresultoftheworseningprospectsforAmericatoberecognizedasthesoleglobaleconomicsuperpower.ThesituationisfurthercomplicatedbythefactthatmoderneconomistshavegrownupbeingtaughtthateconomicliberalismbeganwithAdamSmith.OtherthanstudyingAdamSmith'svenerableworksineconomics,astudentofthehistoryoffreemarketprincipleshasveryfewintellectualavenuestoexplore.AdamSmith'sassociationswithDavidHumeandotherlumniariesoftheScottishEnlightenmentarewidelyacknowledged.HisreligioussentimentsaresaidtobestronglyinfluencedbytheCalvinists.Apartfromthesefacts,thereissimplynonaturalintellectualanchorthatonecoulduse,ifoneweretostudytheoriginsofeconomicliberalism,withtheaimofgettingabetterunderstandingofthecurrenteconomiccrisis.Ofcourse,inthe20thcentury,allinterpretationsofAdamSmith'steachings,likeeverythingelseineconomics,havebeensubjectedtomathematicalformulations.Forexample,thefirstwelfaretheoremofeconomicsisgenerallytakentobeaconfirmationoftheroleofthe"InvisibleHand".Ontheflipside,considerationsofimperfectinformation,incompletemarketsorexternalitieslikeenvironmentalpollution,R&D,etc.,havedemonstratedthatthewelfaretheorem'sassumptionofperfectcompetitionisalmostalwaysunrealistic(Greenwald-Stiglitz).AfterreadingProfessorAnthonyPagden's,"WorldsatWar:The2,500-yearStrugglebetweenEastandWest"attheendoflastyear,Ihadarrivedatthepossibilityofre-interpretingAdamSmith'sworkbyplacingitonabackgroundofRomanlawandjurisprudence.Afterall,whatwouldAdamSmithhavereferredto,inhisfamouswords,"Littleelseisrequiredtocarryastatetothehighestdegreeofopulencefromthelowestbarbarism,butpeace,easytaxes,andatolerableadministrationofjustice",and"Itisthegreatmultiplicationoftheproductionsofallthedifferentarts,inconsequenceofthedivisionoflabor,whichoccasions,inawell-governedsociety,thatuniversalopulencewhichextendsitselftothelowestranksofthepeople"?AdamSmith'svisionfortheuniversalopulenceofmankindwasfoundedontheprinciplesofliberty.EdwardGibbons,writinginthatsameageofRennaisanceEnlightenment,lookedtowardstheuniversalcivilizationofancientRomeastheintellectualguidinglightfortheWesternliberaltradition.So,perhapsthereisindeedsomethingtobegainedinre-examiningAdamSmith'spromisethatanInvisibleHandwouldguidethemarket-basedeconomytouniversalopulence,underthenewassumptionthatthiswasthesameopulencethatfirstshonesobrightlyastheuniversalcivilizationofRome.AtthesametimethatIreadProfessorPagden'sbook,IcameacrossthefollowingcommentmadebyJudgeRichardPosnerontheBecker-Posnerblog(November2,2008entry):"Differentcultures,andwithincultures,differentoccupationsbothselectfordifferentcharactertraitsandshapecharactertraits.Letmestartwithculture.Onecandistinguishbetweenaculturebuiltonnotionsofhonor,militaryprowess,andstatuswithinahierarchyoftenbasedonbirth,ontheonehand,andacommercialcultureontheother.Englishhistoryisacasestudyofthetransitionfromthefirsttothesecond,thesecondhavingbeenrealizedintheUnitedStatesearlierandmorefullythaninthemothercountry."JudgePosner'scommentgavemetheencouragementthateventhougheconomistsconsidertheperiodbeforeAdamSmithtobelargelyirrelevanttomoderneconomictheory,thereis,infact,alongheldtraditioninlawandjurisprudencethattracesitswaybacktothelegalsystemoftheRomancivilization.Moroever,thislegaltraditionhasbeenundergoingacontinuousadaptationtothechangingneedsofWesternsociety,bytransformingitsmostvaluedcharactertraitsfromthoseofanhonor-basedsocietytothoseofacommercialsociety.Asanaside,InoteherethatIfinditcuriousthatJudgePosnerhimselfdidnotexaminetheongoingfinancialcrisisfromtheperspectiveoflawinhislatestbook,"FailureofCapitalism".Instead,hehaschosentofocusonthetwomaineconomicperspectives--Keynesianandmonetarist--bothofwhichrelyheavilyonthe20thcentury'smathematizationofeconomics.PursuingthesearchforalegalfoundationforAdamSmith'steachings,Ibegantoenvisionaframeworkinwhichmuchofthemodernworldfunctions,asifguidedbyan"InvisibleHand",accordingtocertainnaturallaws.Eachofthesenaturallawswasfirstestablishedwhentheancientcivilization,thatwasassociatedwiththatlaw,flourishedpoliticallyandeconomically.Inthisframework,eventhoughthereisnoexplicitenforcementoftheselawsinmoderntimes,violationoftheselawsresultinenormousnegativeimplications.CallittheWisdomoftheAncients,ifyouwill.ThisseemedtoexplaintomewhytherewassomuchresentmentintherestoftheworldagainstthepoliciesofthepreviousGeorgeW.Bushadministration.Bythesametoken,theworldwideresurgenceofhopesforaneconomicrecoveryupontheswearing-inofPresidentObamaprovidedfurtherevidenceinsupportofthisnewframework.Itwasafterthinkingaboutthisframeworkforseveralmonths,thatIcitedthemainpolicyfailureofthepreviousGeorgeW.Bushadministrationasbeing"theindiscriminateabuseoftherulesandconventionsofinternationalsystemsoflaw,whichhavebeenineffectimplicitlyforsomanycenturies",inmyarticle,"ANewPerspectiveontheGlobalEconomicCrisis",thatIwroteinmid-June.Inasimilarvein,IfeltthattheteachingofConfuciuscouldprovideabackgroundforstudyingChinafromaperspectiveoflawandjurisprudence.Moreover,Icouldviewthecurrentglobaleconomiccrisis,withitstenseeconomic,politicalandculturalinteractionsbetweenAmericaandChina,asaconfluenceoftwolongheldtraditionsinlaw.However,althoughthisconfluenceoftwoancienttraditionsoflawprovidesabroadpanoplyforthecurrenteconomiccrisis,ImustadmitthatIwasstrugglingyet,tofindeffectivetechniquesfordrawinginferencesabouttheday-to-dayinteractionsofvariouseconomicforcesthatshapecurrentevents.ItisinthissituationthatProfessorDaniRodrik'sproposalforre-consideringmercantilismintroducesaninteresting"twistinthetale".Iam,ofcourse,notunawarethatmercantilistpracticesruntheriskofpromotingvarioussocietalillsthatincludepolitician-businessmannexus,bureaucraticcorruption,militaryadventurism,tradeprotectionism,stiflingofinnovation,xenophobia,racismandreligiousbigotry.Nevertheless,thisproposalforreconsideringmercantilismpromisesthatinexchangeforgoingalittlebitbeforeAdamSmith'stimeinhistory,onecouldobtainarichsetofguidelineswithwhichtoanticipateforthcomingdevelopmentsintheglobaleconomy.CompendiumoftheoriesandtechniquesinEconomicsthatcouldbeusedtostudythecurrentglobaleconomiccrisisInthefollowing,Ihavemadeacompendiumoftheoriesandtechniquesthatcouldbeemployedtostudythecurrentglobaleconomiccrisis.ItisnotablethatProfessorDaniRodrik'sproposaltore-examinemercantilismistheonlyonethatmakesanyallowanceforstudyingreverse-colonization.Also,pleasenotethatIhavenotincludedbehavioraleconomicsandfinancetheoryinthiscompendium.Therearetworeasonsforthis.Thefirstisthatwhileboththesesubjectshavealottoteachabouthowthecrisisoccurred,unfortunately,theydon'tprovidemuchinformationabouthowtogetoutofthecrisis.Thisisparticularlyclearwhenitcomestodealingwithsystem-widerisk.Thesecondreasonisthatboththesesubjectsfunctionasnicheareasofeconomictheory,withinthebroadframeworkprovidedbythe20thcentury'smathematizationofeconomics.Asaresult,theyarenotinapositiontoenablefundamentalre-examinationsofthecoreconceptsofmoderneconomictheory.Thevastmajorityofeconomistsare,ofcourse,pre-occupiedwiththeframeworkofglobalimbalancesintrade,savingsandcurrentaccounts.Thisistheframeworkwithwhicheconomistsviewthecurrentglobaleconomiccrisis.However,Ihadconsideredthisissueinmyearlierarticle,"ANewPerspectiveontheGlobalEconomicCrisis".Ihadindicatedhowthispre-occupationwithglobalimbalancespreventedeconomistsfromarrivingatmyperspectiveonthecrisis.Ihadanalyedthetwomaintheoriesthateconomistsusetoexplainglobalimbalances--thesavingsgluttheoryandthede-couplingtheory.Ihadexplainedwhythesetheoriesdonotprovidesufficientbackgroundtodealwiththeglobaleconomiccrisis.Inmysubsequentarticle,"ANewPerspectiveontheGlobalEconomicCrisisII:FearofReverse-colonizationDidIt",Ihadexplainedthatitismoreimportanttoassuagethefearsofreverse-colonizationamongWesternintellectuals.ThusIassumeherethatthefocusonreverse-colonizationwouldsubsumeallthetheoriesonglobalimbalances,includingthesavingsgluttheoryandthede-couplingtheory.So,theydon'tappearbelow.MonetaristTheory（货币学派的历史）Fed'sbadmanagementleadstoliquiditycrunch.Panicattackswhoseeffectsshouldpassawayinafewmonths,instead,dragtheeconomydownforyearsandyears.E.g.,Stockmarketcrashof1929shouldhavebeenanisolatedincident--apanickedmarketsell-offthatcouldhavebeencontainedquickly.But,theFed'sincompetenceledtofrequentpanicsamongbankdepositors,whichinturn,ledtotheclosingofthousandsofbanksduringtheearly30s.Inparticular,thehoardingofgoldintheFed'svaultsledtodrainingofmoneysupplyinthefinancialsystem,whichresultedindeflationandthebankpanics.Deflationwasparticularlypainfulfordebtors,whohadgottenintodebtrecklesslyduringtheRoaringTwentieswhencreditwaseasilyavailable.PrescriptionforavoidingtheGreatDepression:ampleliquidity,rule-basedmonetarypolicy,andminimalgovernment.(MiltonFriedman.IrvingFisher).KeynesianTheory（凯恩斯主义理论）Liquiditytrap.TheFedprovidesampleliquidity.(Atpresent,theFedkeepsitstargetforovernightrateatarangeof0-1/4%,andmakesavailable$800billionofreservestothebanks).Butthebankswouldnotdrawonthisfloodofliquidity,simplybecausetherearenogrowthopportunitiesintheeconomy.Toputitanotherway,businessmendonotseegrowthopportunitiesthatarepromisingenoughtostimulatetheir"animalspirits"--thedrivingforcethatmakethemtakerisksinnewventures.Meanwhile,risingunemploymentcausesshortfallsindemandwhichleadstoincreasedrisksofpricedeflation,andcontractioninGDP,whichinturn,leadstofurtherunemployment.Governmentneedstostep-inwithmassivefiscaldeficitstobreakthisdestructivecycle.(JohnMaynardKeynes.JamesTobin).TradeTheory（贸易理论）RisingunemploymentduringtheearlyphaseoftheGreatDepressionledtoshort-sightedpoliticiansenactingprotectionisttariffs.Itseffectwastoincreasetariffsandnon-tarifftradebarriersonworldwidetradeduring1929--32.ThiskilledanychancesofgettingoutoftheGreatDepression.TheGreatDepressionhappenedbetweenthetwoWorldWars,wheninternationalrelationsbetweencountrieswasathistoricallowpoints.Thankfully,thisisnotthecasenow.Attheendofthecoldwar,therewasaworldwideconsensusthatAmericanstylefreemarketpoliciesarethewayforward.However,themarketfundamentalistapproach("WashingtonConsensus")hasresultedinwidespreaddiscontentsonglobalization.NewKeynesianpoliciesareneededtoensurefreetradeforall.(JosephStiglitz).Inpractice,ajusttradesystemisdifficulttoachievebecauseoftheurgetoaccumulatemassivesurplusesamongtheemergingmarketeconomiesandfearsofreverse-colonizationamongtheWesterneconomies.Hence,Westerneconomistsshouldre-examinetheprinciplesofmercantilism.(DaniRodrik).GrowthTheory（增长理论）ThepoliticalandculturalhistoryoftheGreatPowersduringthelast500yearshasbeendeterminedbytheirrelativeratesofeconomicgrowth.(PaulKennedy).Gainsinproductivity(outputperman-hour)duetotechnologicalprogresspromisedtodelivereconomicgrowththroughoutthe20thcentury.(JohnMaynardKeynes).Economicgrowthdependsonthe(i)relativeproportionsofsavingandconsumption,(ii)relativeproportionsofinvestmentsinthefactorsofproduction--land,laborandcapital.(RobetSolow).AlthoughAdamSmithexplainedthatwealthcreationwouldhappenprimarilythroughdivisionoflabor,thisdivisionoflaborinthemodernworkplacedoesnotrequireprolongedspecializationofskills.Inthemoderncompanyenvironment,anemployeewithabasiceducationcanperformthevastmajorityoftasksthroughon-the-joblearning.Thustotaloutputoftheeconomydependsdirectlyontheaverageworkerwhocansteadilyincreaseherproductivitythrough"learning-by-doing".(KennethArrow).Itmightseemthat,forthisreason,policymakersshouldsimplyplanforfullemploymenttomaximizeeconomicoutput.Unfortunately,whenemploymentismaximized,inflationwouldsetin,becausepeoplehavealotofmoneytospend.Theanalysisofthissituationfundamentallyinvolvesinter-temporalconsiderations.Individualagentshaveincompleteinformationabouttheactionofothers.Duetofactorslikeinformationasymmetry,moneyillusion,andstickinessofwagesandprices,theindividualagentsmustbasetheirdecisionson(adaptive)expectations.TheresultofthisanalysisisthatunemploymentrateshouldbeabovetheNon-AcceleratingInflationRateofUnemployment(NAIRU).(EdmundPhelps).But,inflationiscurrentlyverylow,andunemploymentisveryhigh.So,consumers'purchasingpowerisnotgoingtoincrease.Moreover,commoditypricesdonotaffectthepricesofendproductsasmuchastheyusedto.Asaresult,inflationaryexpectationswouldbelowforalongtime.Ontheinternationalfront,inrecenttimesthedollarisbeingsteadilyreplaced,asaglobalreservecurrency,byabasketofcurrencies.So,adepreciationindollarvaluedoesnotaffecttheaveragevalueofthebasketofcurrenciessomuch.Inthefinalanalysis,keepinterestrateslowforanextendedperiodoftime.Watchtheunemploymentrate,productivitygrowthandoutputgaptoknowwhentheeconomyisabouttoshowrobusteconomicgrowth.Onlythenshouldratesberaised.(BenBernanke).Myview:PresidentBarackObamaenjoysunprecendentedworldwidepopularity.ThroughthegoodofficesofthePresident,manynewpartsoftheworldcanbemadesaferforAmericanstoworkin.TreatiesandagreementscanbesignedwithfriendlycountriestoensurethesafetyofAmericansthere.Moreover,infast-growningemergingmarketslikeChina,thereisahugeappetitefor'Americangoods'--Americanfood,fashionclothes,hollywoodmovies,etc.Usingsuchstrategies,thegovernmentcouldgeneratejobsabroadfor10-12millionAmericansoverthenextdecade.ThiswouldbringdowntheunemploymentratemoreeffectivelythantheFed'sstrategyofkeepinginterestrateslowforanextendedperiodoftimetillgrowthopportunitiesinthedomesticeconomyappear.ThistimeitisdifferentbecauserobustgrowthintherestoftheworldwouldbeabletodragtheWesterneconomies(AmericaandEU)outofanytendencytosinktowardsaGreatDepression.BusinessCycleTheory（经济周期理论）Equilibriumtheoryofbusinesscyclesbasedontherationalexpectationshypothesis.Therewouldbeshort-termfluctuationsinthebusinesscycle,butinthelong-term,factorslikepopulationgrowthandproductivitygrowthwouldkeeptheeconomyonanequilibriumgrowthpath.(RobertLucas).Accordingtothistheory,recessionswouldbeshortandshallow,ifatalltheyoccur.However,thecurrenteconomiccrisisdoesnotseemlikeashort-termfluctuation.Ratheritseemslikewholeportionsoftheeconomyhascollapsedwithmassivedestructionofwealthinthestockmarketsandthehousingmarkets.(PaulKrugman).ThecurrentcrisisisnottheGreatDepressionbecausemarginalproductofcapitalhasremainedhigh.(CaseyMulligan.Source:NYTimesarticleinFall2008).Inthelatterhalfofthe1930s,productivityshowedarobustincrease.However,duetotheNewDealwhichgaveawayalotofgoodiestothelaborunions,profitabilityintheeconomywaschokedoff.ThisresultedintheunnecessaryprolongationoftheGreatDepression.(LeeOhanian.HaroldCole.EdwardPrescott).Myview:Icanprovidebetterestimatesforgrowthintheworldeconomybyseparatingitintotwoparts.Forthosepartsoftheworldeconomythatarebasedontraditionaleconomictheory(e.g.,emergingmarketeconomies,factory-basedmanufacturing,small&mediumbusinessesthatdealwithlow-techactivities),therationalexpectationseconomicmodelcouldbeusedtoforecastgrowthrates.Forthemoreadvancedpartsofthemoderneconomy,are-examinationofwhatconstituteseconomicwealthiscalledfor.Moreover,studyingtheproductionprocesscouldhelpdeterminehowmuchgovernmentspendingintheemergingmarketeconomieswouldtranslateintoeconomicgrowth.Withthisapproach,Ipredicted,waybackinJanuary,thatChinawouldbeabletoachieve8%annualgrowthinitsGDPforthenexttwoyears,evenwithoutcountingonitsexportstotheadvancedcountries.Thishasnowcometrue.HistoryofGlobalReserveCurrency（全球储备货币史）Thestudyofcurrencysystemsexplainsallofpoliticalandculturalhistory.Inparticular,theavailablityofproximateinformationmakesitfruitfultostudytheeventsofthe20thcenturyinthisway.(RobertMundell).InternationalistviewofthecausesoftheGreatDepression.ThepeculiarlengthanddepthoftheGreatDepressionisblamedonthehesitancyoftheUSintakingovertheleadershipoftheworldeconomywhenBritainwasnolongeruptotheroleafterWWI.)CharlesKindleberger.Source:Wikipedia)Economically,AmericahadalreadysurpassedtheEuropeanpowersbytheendofthe19thcentury.(JeffreyFrieden).NotethataninternationalistperspectiveontheglobalcurrencysystemsexplainswhyconservativeslikeAndrewMellonandHerbertHooverinsistedonpurgingtherotoutofthesystem,insteadofincreasinggovernmentspendingtoprovideemployment.(NewKeynesianssimplyportraytheseeventsastheactionsofpoliticalleadersignorantofeconomicmatters).Intheend,upholdingthegoldstandardinthe1920sprovedtoocostlyforthedomesticeconomy.(BarryEichengreen).Myview:Anupcominggreatpowermakesapre-matureandill-preparedattemptatbecomingthepredominantglobalpower.Whenthisnewpowercomesupshortagainsttheeconomicstandardsoftheexistinggreatpowers,chancesarethataprolongeddepressionwouldsetin.Againstthisinternationalbackground,theoccurrenceofthefollowingsequenceofeventsresultedintheGreatDepression--collapseofthegoldstandardduringWorldWarI,RoaringTwenties,1929crash,Protectionisttariffs,Bankpanics,DeclineofEuropeintoNazismandFascism.Inthe2000s,GeorgeW.Bushmakespre-matureandill-preparedattemptsatspreadingdemocracyallovertheworld,byoccupyingIraq.ButthisisamuchmilderversionofthetwoWorldWarsofthe20thcentury.Sothereishope.EconomicImplicationsofLaw&InternationalRelations（法律和国际关系的经济意义）ConsequencesoftheIraqwar,thatarisewhenthiswarisexaminedunderlong-establishedinternationalsystemsoflaw,arestillbeingworkedout.Moderneconomictheorydoesnotprovideeffectivemethodstoestimatetheseconsequences.TheonlystatementontheIraqwarthateconomistscanallagreeseemstobethatoccupyingIraqisgoingtocostmuchmorethanthegovernmentofGeorgeW.Bushclaimed.ThebestestimateavailableisthatthetotalcostoftheIraqwarcouldreachthreetrilliondollars.(LindaBlimes&JosephStiglitz).TransformationofthevaluesystemoftheWesternsocietyfromthatofanhonor-basedsocietytothatofacommercialsociety.(RichardPosner).Myview:interpretationofAdamSmith'sUniversalOpulenceintermsoftheUniversalCivilizationofRome.Econometrics(计量经济学)ThecurrenteconomicdeclineiseverybitasbadasthefirstyearoftheGreatDepression.Proof:tablesandgraphsofvariouseconomicindicators.(BarryEichengreen).IthappenedinJapan,ithappenedinArgentinaandMexico,ithappenedinBrazilandRussia,ithappenedinEastAsia.Sowhycouldn'tithappeninAmerica?(PaulKrugman).Closelymonitorshort-termeconomicdatatomakedoomsdaypredictionsoneconomicoutput,stockmarketperformanceandunemployment.(NourielRoubini).Createanindexforhousingpricesacross20majorcities.(RobertShiller).Examiningpastfinancialcrises--goingbacktothe12thcentury.(KennethRogoff&CarmenReinhardt).HowcometheTechbustof2000didn'tcausethecollapseofthefinancialsystembutthehousingbustof2007-09did?(VernonSmith&SteveGjerstad.SomeofitisalsodiscussedinPaulKrugman'sReturnofDepressionEconomics,2008edition).Fedkeptinterestratestoolowbetween2002--2005.TheFeddivergedsignificantlyfromtheTaylorrule.Thisledtothebubbleinthehousingmarkets.(JohnTaylor.VernonSmith).CurrentfinancialcrisiswascreatedbyBenBernankeandHankPaulsonwhowenttotheCongressandscaredeveryoneintobelievingthattherewouldbearepeatoftheGreatDepressionifCongressdidnotprovidethemwith$700-billionTARPfunding.Financialmarketscollapsedatthispoint.Marketsrecoveredbytheendof2008.(JohnTaylor).Myview:(i)Thefinancialcrisiswascausednotjustafailureofthemarketsortheincompetenceofthegovernmentauthorities.Marketsaregenuinelyfacingdifficulties,becausethemarketmechanismdoesn'thavepriorexpertiseindealingwithresidentialmatters.Historically,thedailytradingoftreasurysecuritiesandcompanysharesinvolvedonlyasmallportionofthetotaloutstandingsecurities.Whereaswithmortgagesecuritization,thewholevolumeofeconomicwealththatwasbeingsecuritizedandtradedhadtogothroughthemarketinashortperiodoftime.Asaresult,themarketmechanismwentthroughaten-foldincreaseinvolumewhenittookonmorgagesecuritizations.Themarketsareslowlyworkingtheirwaytobeabletodealwiththischallenge.Moreover,unlikecompanysharesandtreasurysecuritieswheremarginalutilitytheoryappliesverywell,evaluatingthepricesofhousesbasedonmarginalutilityposesinherentdifficulties.(ii)De-centralizingtheAmericanfinancialsystemwouldenablethelocalprocessingofpriceinformationaboutmortgagemarkets.ThiswouldmakethesystemmorestableandavoidtheunnecessaryaccumulationoftrillionsofdollarsinNewYork.中国的重商主义对贫穷国家是福音还是咒语？IsChineseMercantilismGoodorBadforPoorCountr