2020年保险产业链分析报告

2020年保险产业链分析报告2020年4月

摘要从负债端看，负债端整体处于恢复周期，结构优化或已至边界，NBV增长将更依赖规模提速。2019年保障型产品增速略有放缓但增长仍较为稳健，储蓄型业务略有回暖，于开门红准备较早+转型效果初显，代理人量质提升下新单增速优于同业；平安代理人产能提升新单降幅收窄；太保转型+竞争加剧下代理人量质下滑；新华代理人高速增加+渠道+险企个险+期缴+将成为NBV增长主基调。而新单规模增长方面，我们看好储蓄年金类业务的弱复苏。从资产端看，2019+长投策略更受青睐。（投资净收益+公允价值变动损益）增速较快，净/总投资收益率分别为4.6%-5.3%/4.9%-6.9%，相比去年同期，净投资收益率整体企稳，总投资收益率增加0.3-3.2pct2019配资产负债久期。展望20201影响，恢复正常增长节奏尚需要一定时间。2）持续关注低利率下行带来的影响：目前险贴现率-50BP情况下，EV降幅3%-6%，目前的估值已有充分反映。3）重视股基资产弹性及市场β机会：上市险企配置股基资产占比虽然并不高，但利润对权益市场波动的敏感性较强，需要重视保险公司的市场β弹性机会。目前板块估值处于历史估值底部EV15%-20%于负债端增速反弹的估值修复和β行情，持续推荐。5/35核心数据解读2019年上市险企年报已经披露完毕，主要的核心数据概括为：权益市场向好下投资收益增速较好，叠加税收政策调整返还2018年税费，准备金略有增提下仍实现利润高增行业处于恢复周期，总保费收入、EV增长平稳。2019年权益市场向好，5家上市险企合计实现投资收益5,556.7亿元，同比+51.6%。从数据来看，国寿、平安、太保、新华、人保分别实现投资收益1,769.0、2,215.8685.6、383.8、502.5亿元，同比分别增长71.3%、64.3%、33.6%、14.8%、14.9%，其中，各家联营及合营企业投资收2018年度汇算清缴分别为51.54104.53、48.0017.8547.055家上市险企合计提取责任准备金8,392.3亿元，同比+67.0%，准备金增提下利润较半年报略有放缓，但仍实现高增长，国寿、平安、太保、新华、人保净利润分别大增411.5%、39.1%、54.0%、83.8%、66.6%。2019NBV增速持续分化。国寿、平安、太保、新华、人保NBV同比分别变动+18.6%+5.1%-9.3%-19.9%+7.9%4.63.60.9pct值率大幅下行，导致NBV增速下滑。各公司负债端分化主要原因为业务节奏及战略规划不同。保费收入5,670.9、7,950.6、3,475.21,381.3、5,552.7亿元，同比分别增长5.8%、10.5%8.0%13.0%18.5%23.5%18.2%、18.4%26.1%。表：公司经营情况概览（单位：亿元，%）中国人寿2018中国平安2018中国太保单位：亿元新单保费保费收入投资收益责任准备金计提资产减值归属净利润基本EPS净资产20191,812.95,670.91,769.03,351.280.6同比5.9%20191,762.47,950.62,215.82,870.377.4同比-1.3%10.5%64.3%50.3%30.2%39.1%39.7%21.0%19.8%23.5%5.1%2019475.93,475.2685.61,227.824.52018537.03,219.0513.11,050.8同比8.0%5,358.31,032.51,917.282.11,785.17,195.61,348.51,909.959.45.8%71.3%74.8%-1.8%425.6%26.8%18.5%18.5%18.6%+4.6pct33.6%16.8%122.7%54.0%53.8%19.3%17.8%18.2%-9.3%-0.3pct582.91,494.18.41,074.06.0277.43.1180.22.02.10.44,037.69,420.99,420.9587.03,183.77,950.57,950.5495.16,731.612,005.37,574.9759.55,565.110,024.66,132.2722.91,784.33,959.93,055.2246.043.3%1,495.83,361.42,584.3271.243.7%EV寿险NBV新业务价值率32.9%28.3%47.3%43.7%+3.6pct6/35新华保险2018中国人保2018合计单位：亿元新单保费保费收入投资收益责任准备金计提资产减值归属净利润基本EPS净资产2019323.11,381.3383.8537.320.4同比22.3%13.0%14.8%100.9%13.3%83.8%83.9%28.8%18.4%18.4%-19.9%-17.6pct2019542.15,552.7502.5405.720.7同比-0.2%14.9%-20194,916.424,030.75,556.78,392.3223.620184,841.121,981.73,665.65,024.6190.6同比1.6%9.3%51.6%67.0%17.3%72.2%-264.31,222.9334.2267.518.0543.34,986.1437.3(120.8)20.13.0%66.6%59.4%20.1%-145.64.779.2224.00.5134.50.32,724.0-1,581.9-2.5844.52,050.42,050.497.8655.91,731.51,731.5122.147.9%1,831.3-1,524.7-15,229.427,436.522,992.31,752.1-12,425.123,068.019,104.91,668.7-22.6%18.9%20.3%5.0%-EV寿险890.961.9706.357.426.1%7.9%+0.9pctNBV新业务价值率30.3%10.6%Wind：除太保采用首年年化保费口径外，新业务价值率均采用首年2EV4：投资收益为投资净收益+公允价值变动+56EVEV为相比年初增速，以下同；：平安资产减值损失为信用减值损失+其他资产减值损失，并剔除银行数值。总结20192019年行业整体+渠道+期限”结构调整优化或已达到一个高点，预计价值率承压下后续规模增长将成为NBV增长主基调。资产端权益弹性显著，2019年股基资产高收益率推动利润高增长，新会计准则的匹配资产负债久期。负债端：新单仍有承压，负债端持续分化2019+车险保费增长较慢但综合成本率可控，同时非车业务开始发力，增长迅速且盈利较好，结构持续优化。行业保费增速逐步回暖，人身险集中度略有下行2019年，以储蓄年金为代表的寿险增速逐步回暖，以重疾为代表的健康险增速稳定。2017年以前，寿险增速保持在20%以上，2018年受到号文和外部理财环境变化的影响下降至个位数，2019年增速逐步回暖至10%左右的增长；在寿险增速放缓的同时，健康险保持了30%左右的稳定增长。7/352018年初的56%降低至2019年底的48%，集中度下降约8个百分点；从增速来看2019年非上市公司增速在20%7%品IRR更高。表：行业寿险保费增速改善，健康险增速稳健（单位：亿元，）行业寿险保费5,079行业健康险保费532行业寿险保费增速-26.0%-24.7%-18.3%-16.1%-14.5%-12.2%-9.3%行业健康险保费增速-17.0%-18.2%-2.4%行业调整后寿险保费5,064行业调整后健康险保费532行业调整后寿险保费增速-15.7%-9.2%-3.4%-2.2%-1.8%-0.6%-0.6%0.6%行业调整后健康险保费增速15.3%17.1%25.0%30.5%30.1%33.8%34.1%33.8%34.5%35.3%35.0%35.1%49.9%44.4%39.1%34.6%33.4%31.7%31.1%31.5%30.9%30.3%29.8%29.7%17.9%指标名称2018-012018-022018-032018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-122019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-122020-016,9028756,8478759,5011,5622,0292,4493,0193,3903,7964,3374,7145,0595,4487989,4281,5612,0282,4483,0183,3883,7954,3355,0565,44479810,56713,36114,38015,83317,49118,60019,66420,7236,2726.0%10,46913,23814,23915,66617,31418,41619,47020,5276,2729.3%15.4%17.4%18.8%21.0%22.7%23.2%24.1%49.9%44.3%39.1%34.6%33.3%31.7%31.1%31.5%30.9%30.3%29.8%29.7%17.9%-7.7%1.6%-6.1%2.8%-4.7%3.8%-3.4%4.9%23.5%19.7%14.3%13.6%12.9%12.5%12.2%10.7%10.1%9.5%23.9%20.6%15.2%14.6%14.0%13.5%13.3%10.4%9.9%8,2611,2632,1722,7323,2653,9764,4444,9915,6776,1416,5647,0669418,2601,2632,1712,7313,2643,9754,4434,9895,6756,1396,5627,06494110,86312,00513,25215,02716,13617,52819,25420,36021,43422,7546,68710,86112,00113,24815,02116,12817,51819,23820,33421,39222,7036,6639.0%9.8%10.6%6.2%6.6%Wind，银保监会，XXX市场部；调整后寿险保费为剔除安邦人寿保费收入、调整后健康险保费为剔除和谐健康保费收入表：2018-2019年上市险企市场份额大幅下行（单位：）四家险企增速-0.8%其他险企增速-43.2%四家险企集中度55.5%调整后其他险企增速-24.4%调整后四家险企集中度2018-012018-022018-0354.6%49.8%49.3%0.7%-39.6%50.5%-12.5%8.8%-33.0%50.4%-6.9%8/352018-042018-052018-062018-072018-082018-092018-102018-122019-012019-022019-032019-042019-052019-062019-072019-082019-092019-102019-122020-0112.2%12.8%12.1%9.0%-29.6%-26.9%-23.0%-21.3%-18.1%-15.1%-12.7%-10.4%-8.3%50.6%50.6%50.9%50.9%50.6%50.5%50.3%50.0%49.8%50.2%46.6%47.0%46.7%46.7%47.2%47.4%47.6%47.8%18.4%17.1%17.5%6.1%-4.8%-3.8%-1.3%-0.7%1.3%49.4%49.3%49.6%49.5%49.2%49.1%48.9%48.5%48.3%48.7%45.2%45.2%44.8%44.8%45.3%45.4%45.6%45.8%2019-102019-122020-013.4%5.3%7.1%8.9%39.8%31.1%25.2%25.3%24.9%23.9%23.3%20.8%19.5%47.8%47.8%47.7%50.7%42.8%34.6%28.3%28.6%28.1%26.8%26.3%24.0%22.5%52.2%52.2%52.3%49.3%7.1%6.5%6.8%7.0%7.1%7.2%7.1%7.3%8.1%8.6%Wind，银保监会，XXX市场部；此处四家险企包括国寿、平安、太保、新华，调整主要是剔除安邦人寿、和谐健康和安邦养老保费产险：车险受新车销量影响增速放缓，非车险高速增长。2019年，汽车销量、乘用车销量增速持续放缓背景下，上市险企车险增速在2%-7%区间内，而非车险仍保持着17%-33%的高增速，推动产险增速较为稳健。图：行业财险单月保费及同比增速（单位：亿元，）图：2019年上市险企车险、非车险增速（单位：）33.3%31.1%16.6%6.9%6.0%1.6%0Wind，银保监会，XXX市场部Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部9/35报行合一监管加强下财险行业集中度稳中有升。2019年初以来，随着针对报行合一的服务保费增速较快。2019年财险行业保费上市险企/前五公司的市占率分别为64.1%、73.8%，相比去年同期增加0.1、0.3pct，集中度稳中有升。图：前五公司累计单月财险保费市占率（单位：）图：上市险企累计单月财险保费市占率（单位：）Wind，银保监会，XXX市场部Wind，银保监会，XXX市场部；主要为人保、平安、太保人身险：负债端整体承压，静待储蓄年金弱复苏2019负债端整体仍有承压。上市险企“险种+渠道+期限”结构调整优化或已达到一个高点：12险期缴保费占个险新单比例均超过70%325%及战略规划不同下新单增速分化：国寿受益于开门红准备较早+转型效果初显，代理人量质提升下新单增速优于同业；平安代理人产能提升新单降幅收窄；太保转型+竞争加剧下代理人量质下滑；新华代理人高速增加下产能明显下滑。结构优化或已至边界，关注规模增长方向12019保费收入分别实现999、1,246、396、197、202亿元，较去年同期分别变动+9.4%、-4.7%、-15.2%、+1.6%、+58.9%，增速表现持续分化；从个险新单占新单比例来看，平安、太保因已完成“个险+期缴”的转型，行业承压下处于高位的个险新单占比略有1.813.9pct；新华因销售银保趸交产品，个险新单占比大幅下滑12.4pct。表：新单保费和续期保费规模及占比情况（单位：亿元，）中国人寿2018中国平安2018中国太保201820195,6711,81332.0%999同比增长变化5.8%2019同比增长变化7.2%20192,125476同比增长变化5.0%总保费5,35831.9%9131,76228.8%1,24670.7%5,7051,78531.3%1,30773.2%2,024537新单保费5.9%-1.3%新单保费/总保费个险新单22.4%39626.5%4679.4%-4.7%-15.2%-3.8pct个险新单/总新单55.1%53.4%1.8pct-2.5pct83.2%87.0%10/35个险期缴8397925.8%5.8%1,14792.0%4,35471.2%1,24495.2%3,92068.7%-7.8%330425-22.4%10.9%个险期缴/个险新单续期保费83.9%3,85868.0%86.7%3,64768.1%83.3%1,64977.6%91.0%1,48773.5%续期保费/总保费新华保险中国人保20191,38132320181,223264同比增长变化13.0%20199812018937同比增长变化4.7%总保费新单保费22.3%542543-0.2%新单保费/总保费个险新单23.4%19721.6%19455.2%20258.0%1271.6%-12.4pct-5.3%58.9%13.9pct16.3%个险新单/总新单个险期缴60.9%15273.3%16037.3%12223.4%105个险期缴/个险新单续期保费77.1%1,05876.6%82.8%95960.2%43982.2%39410.4%续期保费/总保费78.4%44.8%42.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；平安为规模保费口径2、个险期缴保费占比、十年期及以上期缴保费占比均较高，续期保费增速发力。除人570%为55.5%、54.1%；受过往期缴保费增长的推动，续期保费表现良好。图：十年期及以上期缴保费占期缴保费比例（单位：）70%60.8%60%50%40%30%20%10%55.5%54.1%39.9%34.7%26.6%新华保险中国人寿2018中国人保2019Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部3、保障型产品新单增速平稳，占比仍处较高位置。国寿、新华健康险保费增速回暖，同比分别+30.6%+3.3%，而平安长期保障型产品新单同比-7.8%市险企健康险/长期保障型新单保费占总新单保费的比重超过29%，占比较高。/35图：健康险长期保障型新单保费增速（单位：）图：健康险长期保障型新单保费占总新单比（单位：）30.6%3.3%-7.8%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；其中平安为长期保障型产品Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；其中平安为长期保障型产品分别为1.9%、1.4%、1.1%、1.8%，相比年中略有提升，主要原因为权益市场向好下经营。图：上市险企退保率较低（单位：）18%16%14%12%10%20142015中国平安20162017中国太保20182019H2019中国人寿新华保险中国人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部渠道弱复苏。分红险收益率相对平稳，当前分红储蓄类业务定价利率预期在2.5%-3.0%，分红率在1.2%-1.4%4.0%-4.4%3.5%-4.5%2019保费同比分别增加2.5%24.4%10.8%增长和银保渠道的持续复苏。12/35图：2011-2019年银行理财收益率对比（单位：）图：分红险分红率概况（单位：）1Wind,B万能险的收益率Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：银保渠道保费情况（单位：百万元，）中国人寿中国平安201970,06025,4371,617201876,84133,0569,81723,239新华保险2018同比-8.8%-23.0%-83.5%2.5%201918,3686,4981,2085,290201815,5015,500同比银保渠道保费银保新单18.5%18.1%-3.2%24.4%银保趸交1,248银保期缴23,8204,252中国人保2018201927,28610,2506,0844,166同比31.2%201939,44427,10420,2856,819同比银保渠道保费银保新单20,7934,7503647,20334,61828,4666,152-16.4%-21.7%-28.7%10.8%16800.0%银保趸交银保期缴4,714Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；国寿、人保趸交保费中包括短期险业务业务节奏及战略规划不同下负债端增速分化-17.7%-6.7%+12.1%、+37.0%+59.3%-1.7pct月均营销员比重分别-4.3-1.1pct，新华月均合格率-5.7pct；保单件数方面，平安件均新单数量+13.1%-7.9%平安、太保、新华、人保同比分别+8.2%、+3.4%、-9.0%、-22.5%、+2.4%。可见，收入略有提升，预计后续代理人稳定性将提升；太保转型+竞争加剧下，代理人量质略2.013/35产能情况。表：上市险企代理人主要数据中国人寿2016201720182019161.305,457.934.9%43.8%103.6057.702019年同比增速变动个险渠道代理人（万人）代理人产能（元／人均每月）月均有效销售人力同比增速（%）月均销售特定保障型产品人力同比增速（%）收展队伍（万人）149.505,545.0157.805,428.0143.905,046.312.1%8.2%--0.3%103.3040.60营销队伍（万人）42.1%中国平安20167,821.02017138.608,373.0126.0048,243.065.5%1.22201820192019年同比增速变动-17.7%个人寿险销售代理人数量（万人）代理人首年规模保费（元／人均每月）月均代理人数量（万人）代理人人均新业务价值（元人均每年）代理人活动率（%）141.747,771.30132.0048,789.062.6%1.228,037.71120.0056,791.060.9%1.383.4%-9.1%16.4%-1.7pct代理人件均新单数量（件／人均每月）月均收入（元／人均每月）中国太保1.206,016201613.1%6,2506,2946,3090.2%2017201820192019年同比增速变动-6.7%月均保险营销员（万人）保险营销员每月人均首年保险业务收入（元）保险营销员每月人均首年佣金收入（元）人）月均健康人力（万人）65.305,084.0987.01.7287.4084.7079.004,631.01,058.01.644,212.0941.0-9.0%1,012.01.681.51-7.9%24.8013.1028.4%15.0%201731.2025.70-17.6%月均绩优人力（万人）14.9013.00-12.8%月均健康人力占比（%）月均绩优人力占比（%）新华保险36.8%17.6%201832.5%16.5%2019-4.3pct-1.1pct201632.802019年同比增速变动37.0%个险渠道规模人力（万人）月均人均综合产能（元／人均每月）月均合格人力（万人）34.805,801.037.0050.705,798.04,372.012.853,387.013.30-22.5%3.5%月均合格率（%）38.8%201833.1%2019-5.7pct人保寿险201618.93201725.592019年同比增速变动59.3%个险代理人数量（万人）代理人产能（元／人均每月）24.565,323.04,728.02,679.02,742.02.4%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；代理人产能标灰数据为新单保费和代理人计算值，其余为公司财产险：成本率企稳，非车发展延续良好势头14/35车商渠道、代理渠道占比较高，交叉销售渠道占比略有下滑。2019年上市险企财险渠道结构中，平安车商渠道占比达到24.2%，占比整体企稳；商车费改下渠道竞争激烈，对产品服务要求提高，代理人渠道占比较高；交叉销售占比较2018年略有下滑，但占比仍较高，公司协同能力助力财险保费增长。表：上市财险渠道结构（单位：）人保财险保费渠道结构代理渠道201457.5%30.7%20.6%6.2%201557.9%30.5%18.8%8.6%201666.6%35.1%18.3%13.3%28.3%5.0%201770.6%35.7%18.4%16.5%23.7%5.7%2018H64.8%31.9%12.4%20.4%27.6%7.6%201871.4%33.6%13.9%24.0%20.6%7.9%2019H61.7%28.9%10.6%22.3%30.2%8.1%201969.0%32.3%25.2%22.8%8.2%个人代理兼业代理专业代理直销渠道37.0%5.5%36.9%5.2%保险经纪渠道平安财险保费渠道结构电话及网络交叉销售201620172018H19.1%22.5%21.7%16.1%9.4%20182019H7.3%201935.5%16.7%23.3%9.6%27.3%18.1%23.4%14.8%10.6%5.8%10.9%19.8%24.0%23.2%15.0%7.1%17.7%16.8%24.2%23.4%10.4%7.6%21.2%23.3%22.3%16.1%9.9%车商渠道代理渠道直销渠道9.6%其他5.3%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部20192019年累计保费增速为9.5%12.7%为98.9%、96.4%、98.3%，同比分别变动+0.4、+0.4、-0.1pct，财险综合成本率的抬升主要为非车险带来，台风等自然灾害、猪瘟及社会信用风险提升是影响的主要因素。图：上市险企产险累计保费增速（单位：）图：上市险企综合成本率（单位：%）中国平安中国太保中国财险中国太平Wind，银保监会，XXX市场部Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部分拆业务看，车险增速略有承压，综合成本率可控。受商车费改影响，2019年上市险企车险增速略有放缓，人保、平安、太保车险增速分别为1.6%、6.9%、6.0%，同时，96.7%97.2%97.9%15/35面存有利影响，但预计车险增速下滑影响更显著。表：上市险企车险保费及同比增速（单位：亿元，）保费收入人保财险平安财险太保财险同比增速人保财险平安财险太保财险20162,258.81,486.5761.820172,492.31,706.6818.12018H1,224.4847.9438.62018H3.9%20182,589.01,819.2879.820182019H1,274.9924.2461.32019H4.1%20192,629.31,944.9932.220192016201710.6%13.4%1.6%10.3%14.8%7.4%3.9%1.6%5.5%6.6%9.0%6.9%10.1%7.5%5.2%6.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；其中平安为毛保费收入表：上市险企车险综合成本率（单位：%）车险综合成本率人保财险2017H96.0%97.1%98.6%2017H59.1%59.0%61.1%2017H36.9%38.1%37.5%201796.4%97.5%98.7%20172018H96.7%97.2%98.0%2018H58.8%57.1%59.4%2018H37.9%40.1%38.6%20182019H201996.7%97.2%97.9%201998.4%97.4%98.3%201898.1%97.7%98.4%2019H56.1%58.9%59.9%2019H42.0%38.8%38.5%平安财险太保财险车险赔付率人保财险58.9%56.3%61.4%201756.8%53.9%56.8%201857.1%57.2%60.8%2019平安财险太保财险车险费用率人保财险37.5%41.2%37.3%41.6%43.5%41.5%39.6%40.0%37.1%平安财险太保财险Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；其中人保车险赔付率以赔款支出/保费收入估算，车险费用率以车险成本率、车险赔付率差值进行计算，平安、太保为披露值15%格局和专业性等原因或具有更低的综合成本率。2019年受“利奇马”等自然灾害影响成本率略有上行，但整体盈利来看，非车险表现仍优于车险。表：上市险企非车险保费增速（单位：）2016-3.1%19.3%20170.5%2018H10.5%33.4%20186.3%2019H2019人保财险企业财产险责任险31.4%13.1%25.4%22.7%27.9%16/3530.8%7.8%13.1%201737.0%21.4%32.7%2018H69.8%43.9%8.6%32.0%19.6%21.0%201841.0%2.6%42.5%意外伤害及健康险货运险26.2%-7.2%3.1%20162.8%15.2%201917.9%2019H-5.6%48.4%8.5%农险平安财险保证保险责任保险企业财产保险意外伤害保险太保财险企财险-39.9%25.8%-0.7%21.7%2016144.3%21.3%7.8%35.5%201766.1%34.6%8.9%5.1%41.6%39.5%201952.4%2018H32.0%63.6%219.8%49.5%201844.6%2019H23.0%48.3%--6.1%1.5%65.2%--5.1%8.7%43.6%-8.1%17.1%15.3%40.8%60.0%27.3%54.9%122.8%责任险农险保证险Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：上市险企非车险综合成本率（单位：）人保财险企业财产险责任险2017H82.0%92.7%100.9%83.0%93.1%2017H91.5%89.3%91.9%69.7%2017H99.0%94.9%95.3%-2017102.8%95.0%105.0%87.8%92.4%20172018H86.1%93.3%101.5%82.9%88.9%2018H87.5%89.6%98.2%76.2%2018H101.5%94.6%96.4%93.9%2018109.6%94.0%99.5%90.6%95.2%20182019H83.4%95.7%101.5%80.7%94.8%2019H93.2%94.6%90.1%82.9%2019H97.4%92.2%99.8%-2019105.8%99.7%101.8%87.5%97.9%2019意外伤害及健康险货运险农险平安财险88.6%91.2%82.8%78.2%201788.6%89.9%94.4%82.3%201893.6%97.6%83.6%84.3%2019保证保险责任保险企业财产保险意外伤害保险太保财险109.2%90.7%96.6%-98.7%94.9%95.0%84.2%96.0%90.7%99.8%95.5%企财险责任险农险保证险Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部资产端：投资收益亮眼，增配股基类资产从资产端来看，2019年权益市场向好叠加债券利率略有震荡的背景下，上市险企投资产，稳定投资收益，更好的匹配资产负债久期。17/35权益向好改善投资收益，累计浮盈较好投资收益率提升明显2019涨跌幅一季度、二季度、三季度、四季度分别为+28.62%、-1.21%、-0.29%、+6.33%（去年同期分别为-3.28%、-9.94%、-2.05%、-12.45%收益+5家上市险企合计实现投资收益5,556.7比大增51.6%，净/总投资收益率分别为4.6%-5.3%/4.9%-6.9%，相比去年同期，净投资收益率整体企稳，总投资收益率增加0.3-3.2pct。上市险企投资收益的提升主要是公允价值变动损益、价差收入明显提升，同时对联营企业和合营企业的收益增速平稳。表：投资收益率及资产价差收益率（单位：，）总投资收益率净投资收益率总投资收益率净投资收益率价差收益（）价差收益（）20183.28%3.70%4.60%4.60%4.90%20184.64%5.20%4.90%5.00%5.50%20195.23%6.90%5.40%4.90%5.40%20194.61%5.20%4.90%4.80%5.30%中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险中国人保-1.36-1.50-0.30-0.40-0.60中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险中国人保0.621.700.500.100.10Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：上市险企投资收益结构（单位：百万元，，）中国人寿2018133,017106,42217,7761052019同比增速2018年占比2019年占比占比变化-41.1pct-34.7pct-3.8pct净投资收益149,10922,8043112.1%9.2%28.3%-70.5%18.3%-129.3%103.4%17.3%0.1%88.2%68.8%13.5%0.0%固定到期类净投资收益权益类净投资收益投资性房地产净投资收益现金及其他投资收益对联营企业和合营企业的收益净额投资资产买卖价差收益公允价值变动损益投资资产资产减值损失总投资收益-0.1pct9698610.9%0.5%-0.4pct7,745-21516-8,148-8,205102,89320189,1591340214,4197,887169,04320197.5%5.4%-2.1pct28.8pct16.4pct12.6pct-20.9%-7.9%7.9%-8.5%--8.0%4.7%64.3%同比增速-100.0%2018年占比-1.7%100.0%2019年占比7.4%中国太保占比变化9.0pct1.6pct出售股票投资净收益出售基金投资净收益出售债券投资净收益买入返售金融资产利息收入债权型投资利息收入其他固定息投资利息收入-8485,055923-120--0.2%1.3%139282102.9%5.2%13.0%22.5%0.3%0.4%0.1pct3293460.6%0.5%-0.1pct-1.4pct39,1048,81044,20010,79676.2%17.2%64.5%15.7%18/35基金股息收入1,7181,4982,5123351,2132,2882,167494-29.4%52.7%-13.7%47.5%26.7%-3.3%2.9%1.8%3.3%-1.6pct0.4pct-1.7pct0.1pct-5.4pct5.4pct股票股息收入其他股权型投资收益联营及合营企业投资收益投资净收益合计公允价值变动损益投资收益合计4.9%3.2%0.7%0.7%53,477-2,16851,309201867,762801104.2%-4.2%98.8%1.2%68,56320199833.6%同比增速-29.0%20.8%4.4%-10.2%13.5%3.3%-100.0%2018年占比0.4%100.0%2019年占比0.3%新华保险占比变化-0.2pct0.4pct现金及现金等价物利息收入定期存款利息收入债权型投资利息收入股权型投资分红收入其他投资资产利息收入净投资收益1382,61323,8566,2351,48634,328-9323,1575,6021,68635,454-2278.3%8.7%75.5%19.7%4.7%68.5%15.4%4.6%-7.0pct-4.3pct-0.1pct2.3pct8.5pct0.2pct108.7%-3.0%97.6%-0.6%7.3%投资资产买卖价差收益公允价值变动损失投资资产减值损失联营企业权益法确认损益总投资收益-3792,647-2,032502--1.2%-1,835404--5.8%-5.6%1.4%24.3%15.1%同比增速-0.7%4.0%4.0%-0.4%32.3%-1.3%0.1pct31,586201836,3442019907100.0%2018年占比2.2%100.0%2019年占比1.8%中国人保占比变化3.0pct现金及现金等价物固定收益投资91329,60328,97756430,78630,14256270.4%68.9%1.3%62.6%61.3%1.1%-7.8pct-7.6pct-0.2pct0.0pct利息收入处置金融工具损益公允价值变动损益公允价值计量的各类基金及股票投资股息和分红收入处置金融工具损益公允价值变动损益减值62820.1%0.2%-2,0003,626-2,447-7554,4703,6672,099564-4.8%9.1%13.8pct-1.2pct10.1pct2.9pct2.0pct1.1%-8.6%7.5%-5.8%4.3%--1.8%1.1%-2,42413,55112,54042,0672018-1,86013,03712,566471--5.8%-3.8%26.5%25.5%1.0%其他投资-3.8%0.2%-53.4%17.0%同比增速32.2%29.8%2.4%-5.7pct-4.3pct-1.4pct对联营及合营企业的投资收入其他损益总投资收益49,2002019100.0%2018年占比100.0%2019年占比中国平安占比变化非银行业务利息：以摊余成本计量的金融资产其他债权投资80,4188,12889,92410,06723.9%49.3%5.0%50.7%5.7%1.4pct0.7pct净投资收益以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融资产38,60935,822-7.2%23.7%20.2%-3.5pct19/35其他权益工具投资已实现收益╱（损失）以公允价值计量且其变动计入当期损益的金融资产10,2913,06812,8082,24324.5%6.3%1.9%7.2%1.3%0.9pct-26.9%-0.6pct其他债权投资-1995617245--0.1%0.0%0.6%0.1%0.0%0.5%0.2pct0.0pct-0.1pct以摊余成本计量的金融资产衍生金融工具-19.6%-2.0%958939以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益发放贷款及垫款价差收益贵金属买卖收益8351,18241.6%0.5%0.7%0.2pct57370136122.3%-84.5%28.5%8.8%0.4%1.4%0.4%0.2%0.0pct-1.2pct2.0pct长期股权投资2,324占联营企业和合营企业的净收益投资收益合计18,074163,13523,224177,488100.0%13.1%100.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部累计浮盈大幅增加2019年累计浮盈大幅提升，利润储备较好。2019其他综合收益，2019年，利率震荡背景下，国寿、太保、新华的债券型可供出售金融资产转入其他综合收益的金额分别为-5.05、+14.30、+12.47亿元，同时因权益市场向654.70223.35175.002019291.6134.6、129.539.67.22%2.00%7.26%4.69%6.43%，待释放利润储备较好。表：利润表其他综合收益规模（单位：亿元，）利润表其他综合收益中国人寿2016-257.76-75.67-46.74-27.41-42.7920162017-79.26218.81-24.966.762018H-22.491.302018-20.2521.3712.82-43.88-19.0120182019H202.17-8.142019349.1292.32103.4667.512019中国平安中国太保3.6659.4828.8599.572019H3,6846,2531,625766新华保险-21.04-5.47中国人保-43.082017归属净资产中国人寿2018H3,2305,1611,3896583,0363,8341,3185913,2094,7341,3756373,1845,5651,4966564,0386,7321,784845中国平安中国太保新华保险中国人保1,25520161,36920171,4452018H-0.70%0.03%1,52520181,7192019H5.49%-0.13%1,8312019占归属净资产比重中国人寿-8.49%-1.97%-2.47%4.62%-0.64%0.38%8.65%1.37%中国平安20/35中国太保新华保险中国人保-3.55%-4.64%-3.41%-1.82%1.06%-3.15%0.26%-3.20%-0.38%0.86%-6.69%-1.25%3.66%3.77%5.79%5.80%7.99%8.58%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：可供出售资产中累计计入其他综合损益（单位：百万元）可供出售资产中累计计入其他综合损益相比年初变化中国人寿201613,1771512017-9,8778,16020172018H785201817314-24,07320182019H1400816,7372019H3,492201916,80941,39720192019H2019-505债权型投资股权型投资中国太保-3,30640,8102019H-1,64514,1872019H-129-4,8492018H-4,4538,5852018H47965,47020192016-102债权型投资股权型投资新华保险-12,14413,39520175,1371,37220186,56723,70720191,43022,33520197,41520161,5811,51915,5592019H1836债权型投资股权型投资-87519653,2126,6151,24717,5005,830-2,534-10,885-1,8099,076Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：权益表其他综合收益规模（单位：亿元，）资产负债表其他综合收益中国人寿201643.72017H39.920172018H20182019H2019-35.4401.515.1-58.031.4-56.149.4145.837.3291.6134.6129.539.6中国平安185.639.6282.935.5中国太保18.727.986.2新华保险9.217.516.0-5.1-27.90.9中国人保47.841.215.510.3-0.474.82019占归属净资产比重中国人寿20161.44%4.84%3.01%1.56%3.81%2017H1.29%6.64%2.70%2.83%3.12%20172018H-1.79%0.61%1.35%-0.77%0.71%20182019H3.96%0.60%5.30%0.12%4.35%-1.10%8.48%1.09%2.51%1.13%-1.76%0.89%1.87%-4.26%-0.03%7.22%2.00%7.26%4.69%6.43%中国平安中国太保新华保险中国人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部大类资产配置稳健，增配股基资产从大类资产配置来看，201912.07%9.53%12.17%，较2018年底分别增加1.24、0.63、2.70、1.52、0.48pct，定存占比在7%-15%左右，债券类资产配置占比在32%-47%左右，资产配置较为稳健。21/35表：2017-2019大类资产配置情况（单位：亿元，）中国人寿定存20174,494.02,747.06,805.625,932.5201720185,593.413,098.22,849.97,499.829,041.3201820195,352.614,105.53,950.712,340.535,749.32019较年初-0.50%3.29%2017占比17.33%45.83%10.59%26.24%100.00%2017占比6.66%2018占比19.26%45.10%9.81%2019占比14.97%39.46%34.52%100.00%2019占比6.57%债券股基25.41%38.54%13.83%较年初5.32%其他25.82%100.00%2018占比7.50%合计中国平安定存1,630.710,716.93,176.78,970.424,494.720172,012.512,707.73,196.28,917.726,834.020182,109.315,040.63,871.532,088.42019债券3.73%43.75%12.97%36.62%100.00%2017占比9.62%47.36%33.23%100.00%2018占比10.41%46.28%6.82%46.87%12.07%34.49%100.00%2019占比10.41%42.64%9.53%股基16.93%18.07%10.19%较年初16.21%4.07%其他合计中国太保定存1,039.95,210.6959.91,284.05,707.9841.31,477.66,051.51,351.914,192.62019债券48.19%8.88%股基35.97%10.84%9.98%其他3,602.410,812.820174,499.112,332.2201833.32%100.00%2017占比6.12%36.48%100.00%2018占比9.24%37.43%100.00%2019占比7.63%合计新华保险定存较年初1.55%418.1646.9640.4债券2,637.8899.32,752.1745.43,580.61,021.93,151.58,394.5201922.90%3.44%38.60%13.16%42.13%100.00%2017占比8.29%39.33%10.65%40.78%100.00%2018占比32.36%10.84%45.78%100.00%42.65%12.17%37.54%100.00%2019占比8.89%股基其他2,879.06,834.220172,853.86,998.320182.39%合计10.49%较年初-19.21%10.81%0.48%中国人保定存707.1986.5870.1债券2,743.6928.72,897.4971.13,174.51,108.04,629.59,782.132.15%10.88%48.68%100.00%32.45%47.33%100.00%股基其他4,154.68,534.04,099.78,954.65.14%合计3.79%Wind,XXX市场部非标资产配置增速较好。2019年，国寿、平安、太保、新华、人保非标固收资产投资相比年初分别变动+18.15%-2.73%+23.16%+4.22%+4.84%资产的名义投资收益率达到5.75%上市险企非标资产的安全性较好，AAA占比超过90%。表：上市险企非标资产配置结构（单位：亿元，）非标固收国寿20172018H3,172.13,624.820182019H3,776.84,458.120192019年同比增速3,017.63,359.33,512.84,421.64,150.24,300.918.15%-2.73%平安22/35太保1,825.11,996.92,086.120172,221.41,903.22,028.92018H375.3858.1415.4-2,377.31,846.92,065.020182,844.21,831.92,015.42019H376.8360.44.32,927.81,924.82,164.92019326.4381.97.323.16%4.22%4.84%新华人保非标权益国寿2019年同比增速-0.65%403.3868.9205.8414.4-328.5321.871.8平安18.66%-89.85%31.91%-太保新华415.2-451.2-547.6-人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：平安非标资产相关数据（单位：，年）2019投资占比名义投资收益率期限（年）剩余到期期限（年）基建33.512.52.95.755.855.345.855.655.745.98.699.877.938.167.855.464.698.136.566.565.195.743.915.9高速公路电力基建设施及园区开发8.7其他（水务、环保、铁路投资等）9.44.212.712.053.073.68非银金融36.318.31.5不动产煤炭开采5.9其他10.41005.485.75合计Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部表：上市险企非标资产评级情况（单位：）2017年AAA95.0%91.0%95.4%AAAAA中国平安中国太保新华保险2018年5.0%2.0%8.7%3.0%1.6%AA中国平安中国太保新华保险2019年98.0%95.1%95.2%AAA3.2%4.7%1.7%AA中国平安中国太保新华保险99.0%94.4%94.8%1.0%5.5%5.2%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部23/35高分红高股息长投策略高分红高股息策略有利于降低利润波动同时抬升投资收益，长投策略有利于拉长久期。波动将大幅提升。考虑资产价格波动直接影响利润的FVTPL、仅允许股息分红进入利润表的等权益资产更低。表：上市险企长期股权投资规模及占投资资产比重（单位：百万元，）长期股权投资规模中国人寿201334,775.018,138.0201444,390.012,898.0264.0201547,175.026,858.0324.0201648,955.0151.02017161,472.086,207.05,271.04,896.097,740.020172018201,661.0154,895.017,472.04,792.0107,492.020182019222,983.0204,135.020,442.04,917.02019中国平安中国太保新华保险9,404.0-10,150.036,128.020143,626.053,308.020154,575.085,834.02016中国人保占投资资产比重中国人寿20131.9%1.5%0.0%1.7%-2.1%2.1%4.9%6.2%6.5%6.2%中国平安0.9%1.6%2.5%3.5%5.5%6.4%中国太保0.0%0.0%0.0%0.5%1.4%1.4%新华保险1.6%0.6%0.7%0.7%0.7%0.6%中国人保5.2%7.2%10.6%12.0%12.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部盈利表现：驱动因子分化，评估利率下行NBV=新单规模*2019年上市险企NBVNBV增长将更依赖新单规模提升。EV除投资等短期波动的ROEV增速稳健，剩余边际储备较好，上市险企业绩安全边际较性承压。价值增长分化，价值率下行压力增加新业务价值表现分化。国寿、平安、太保、新华、人保分别实现新业务价值586.98、759.45245.9797.7961.88+18.6%+5.1%-9.3%-19.9%、+7.9%NBV改善动力主要来源于新业务价值率的提升，同比分别增加4.6、3.6、；太保价值率企稳而新单下滑明显，新华新单增速较好但价值率大幅下行，导致NBV增速下滑。24/35合价值率预期略有下行，NBV增长将更依赖新单规模提升。图：上市险企增速（单位：）图：上市险企新业务价值率（单位：）Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；人保NBVM为计算值，其余为披表：上市险企业务价值率对比（单位：）中国人寿个险渠道团险渠道银保渠道合计201842.2%0.8%201945.3%0.6%中国太保传统寿险分红寿险2018201977.9%24.2%中国平安个人业务201853.9%57.1%94.7%16.9%55.4%41.1%18.7%1.3%201959.7%64.9%104.9%22.1%56.2%39.3%20.4%1.3%78.4%38.1%代理人渠道18.7%28.3%201823.8%32.9%2019长期保障型合计43.7%201843.3%2019短交储蓄型新华保险个险渠道银保渠道团险渠道合计中国人保银行保险个人保险团体保险总计长交储蓄型60.6%12.2%-4.1%46.2%49.3%2.8%1.2%0.7%电销、互联网及其他渠道银保渠道38.6%5.6%27.4%6.8%-8.6%30.3%团险业务10.6%43.7%47.3%寿险及健康险业务合计Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；平安、太保、国寿均为披露值，新华、人保为计算值NBV和投资敏感性略有上升。在保障业务占比企稳而储蓄型业务略有复苏的背景下，NBV和VIF对投资收益率的敏感性略有提升。假设投资收益率增加50BP，国寿、1.21.00.62.5pct价值敏感性同比分别增加0.30、0.24、0.40、0.82pct。预计保费结构变化和负债久期拉长是主要原因，随着储蓄业务逐步回暖，分红险的增加或降低投资敏感性。25/35图：投资收益率下新业务价值敏感性（单位：）图：投资收益率下有效业务价值敏感性（单位：）Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部利润储备较优，关注准备金变化剩余边际储备较好，营运利润平稳增长上市险企剩余边际储量高，释放稳健，营运利润增速平稳。2019年，国寿、平安、太保、新华的剩余边际余额分别为7,683、9,1843,296、2,145亿元，相比年初分别增长12.3%16.8%15.5%9.7%来看，每年的剩余边际摊销占税前营运利润比重在60%-70%，占比较高，对营运利润增长有较好贡献，为上市险企业绩提供了较强的安全边际。2019年，平安、太保集团归母营运利润分别为1,329.55、278.78亿元，同比分别增长18.1%、13.1%，增速平稳。图：上市险企剩余边际余额及相比年初增速（单位：亿元，）10,0009,0008,0007,0006,0005,0004,0003,0002,0001,000040%35%30%25%20%15%10%20162017中国人寿国寿增速2018H2018中国太保太保增速2019H2019新华保险新华增速中国平安平安增速Wind,公司公告，XXX市场部表：平安寿险及健康险业务的营运利润分析（单位：百万元，）201638,2025,6482017H23,9893,24520177,3572018H20182019H35,8405,2162019剩余边际摊销29,5594,31062,2878,95974,454净资产投资收益26/35息差收入3,7156,3172,4728,9735,63710,10872,91268.3%2,80047,83861.8%5,04821,74998,04363.5%1,62812,21954,90365.3%3,94710,406100,54574.1%营运偏差及其他税前营运利润合计剩余边际摊销营运利润53,88270.9%38,67962.0%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部股基资产高收益率推动利润增长2019年股基资产综合收益率达到25%-37%，推动利润高增长。2019年权益市场向好下，上市险企股息投资收益率亮眼，公允/总/综合股基投资收益率分别达到19%-28%、5%-17%25%-37%，高投资收益率推动利润实现高增长。表：上市险企测算下的公允总综合股基收投资益率（单位：）公允股基投资收益率2015A-1.04%-0.25%-5.39%2015A25.64%24.13%2015A41.0%30.9%23.7%2016A-3.91%-4.01%-5.48%2016A6.82%6.17%10.82%2016A-1.3%2017A12.55%1.85%9.45%2017A10.62%8.48%16.95%2017A17.7%14.0%19.9%2018H-23.36%-7.13%-16.05%2018H3.24%5.74%1.82%2018H-6.2%20182019H2019太保-26.18%-6.43%-17.28%201847.30%17.19%38.74%2019H10.62%6.15%21.02%2019H38.2%31.2%47.0%28.49%19.40%22.99%2019新华国寿总股基投资收益率太保0.06%3.75%-1.75%20189.25%5.27%16.91%2019新华国寿综合股基投资收益率太保新华国寿-13.3%-17.8%-14.2%28.9%24.9%36.8%-7.0%-13.3%-8.1%-3.6%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部评估利率下行，对利润存一定压制从基准评估利率的表现来看，1-10年期国债收益率日移动平均变动在2017年四季度达到拐点，20182019年呈上行趋势后将再次迎来拐点，2020年起将逐步下行。2019年提升幅度为9.7-12.6BP（去年同期为8.8-16.1BP2020年4月3日的水平延续，预计全年下降幅度在31.7-53.1BP数较高的背景下利润增长将周期性承压。27/35图：中性假设下基准利率变动预期（单位：）日移动平均：年3.63.43.23.02.82.62.4日移动平均：年日移动平均：年Wind,XXX市场部表：国债750日均线变动幅度（单位：）1年期1.535年期2.7810年期2.472019Q12019Q22.713.543.092019Q33.653.633.122019Q41.812.602.232020Q1-5.94-14.43-15.51-17.2216.069.70-3.19-9.75-13.369.48-3.91-7.85-8.888.762020Q2E2020Q3E2020Q4E201820192020E12.55-37.5310.90-31.69-53.10Wind,XXX市场部从实际多提准备金规模来看，2019年上市险企均增提准备金，占归属净利润的比重为+4%到+47%（去年同期为-22%到+48%利率下行趋势将带动评估利率下行，预期基数较高的背景下利润增长将周期性承压。表：2017年以来多计提责任准备金情况及利润占比（单位：百万元，）多计提责任准备金计提责任准备金税前利润20179,02332,1939,0248,2822018-3,074-320192,40220,7748,0776,2492018-22.1%-1.8%-1.8%47.9%2019H5.5%20194.0%28.9%47.3%中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险2,133-2,0773,816-707-1.8%26.3%-7.1%5,03828/351,751142-81,9920.5%0.0%7.1%中国人保Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部EV增长中投资偏差贡献明显，ROEV平稳2019年上市险企寿险EV增速为18%-24%，投资偏差贡献明显。EV增长的贡献因素8%-9%EVEV的提升效应较为明显，2019EV增速约在6%-12%；投资偏差今年因权益市场波动影响较大，增加寿险EV增速2-5pct。表：上市险企主要项目对增速的贡献（单位：）预期回报中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险NBV20119.3%201210.3%10.4%10.6%9.9%2012201310.5%9.3%10.6%10.1%2013201411.0%9.4%10.7%12.1%201420159.9%9.3%10.4%10.1%20156.9%11.8%9.6%7.8%20150.6%0.3%-0.1%-2.4%20154.5%4.4%2.8%9.2%2015-0.8%-2.4%-4.0%-0.8%20169.3%8.4%9.3%10.7%201620178.0%8.8%9.7%9.7%20179.2%18.7%14.7%9.3%20170.1%2.5%1.0%2.4%2017-0.7%8.4%0.5%0.2%2017-1.1%-4.6%-7.0%-1.2%20188.2%9.1%9.7%9.2%20186.7%14.6%12.7%8.0%20180.0%2.8%-0.1%2.0%2018-6.1%-2.5%0.1%-3.8%2018-1.6%-6.3%-3.9%-1.1%20198.4%9.4%9.3%9.2%20197.4%12.4%9.5%5.6%20190.0%0.6%1.5%0.9%20194.0%5.2%2.0%4.8%2019-0.6%-7.9%-4.9%-1.4%10.1%10.3%13.7%2011中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险营运偏差中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险投资偏差中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险股息注资中国人寿中国平安中国太保新华保险6.8%7.1%11.3%9.7%9.1%20126.3%10.4%8.8%7.4%20136.8%11.0%9.0%7.6%20148.8%15.6%12.5%10.1%201614.3%9.5%16.7%2011-0.4%-0.8%-0.3%-3.0%2011-0.3%-0.7%-0.3%1.4%2012-0.7%-0.3%0.6%-0.9%20130.2%0.1%0.3%-2.5%2014-0.3%-0.1%0.3%1.9%2016-10.8%-1.4%-14.9%-42.4%20113.3%-4.9%0.6%-0.2%2012-6.8%0.8%-3.6%-0.4%201311.5%10.5%6.3%18.0%2014-5.5%-0.2%-0.6%-4.3%2016-3.8%6.6%-2.2%-4.1%-1.1%-2.5%-1.2%-3.4%-2.3%0.0%-2.5%-2.5%1.8%-0.7%-2.2%-5.3%-5.5%-0.8%-1.6%91.2%Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部上市险企寿险ROEV较为平稳。因投资回报差异变化幅度较大，同时市场价值调整、股东分红等与公司经营相关度并不高，在剔除这些短期波动后，我们计算ROEV来衡29/352019年的ROEV分别为15.8%、25.0%21.3%、13.9%、16.6%，较为平稳。表：上市险企寿险业务（单位：）内含价值营运回报率中国人寿20132014201517.4%21.4%19.9%14.2%9.3%201620172018201916.2%19.5%20.0%15.6%17.0%17.9%20.5%19.9%15.8%13.1%17.8%27.0%24.9%23.0%11.8%17.3%35.5%27.5%20.3%16.4%15.0%30.8%23.6%19.2%16.4%15.8%25.0%21.3%13.9%16.6%中国平安中国太保新华保险人保寿险Wind，公司公告，XXX市场部；因上市险企EV披露口径略有差异，只有平安16-17年、新华露是以暂不考虑；同时，2016年偿二代及假设调整对EV影响暂不考虑投资展望：负债端长期具潜力，投资端关注利率影响市场对于其中长期成长性的考量。展望2020年，分析的逻辑不变但各因素状态已发生较大变化。重点关注疫情对新单影响及代理人的复产复工目前各公司根据不同地区政府安排逐步恢复代理人职场间利率低位下长期储蓄型业务增速将持续回暖，代理人量质和新单增速将逐步提升，推动NBV稳健增长。表：公司保费收入变动情况（单位：亿元，）2020年月累计保费667.332020年月月度保费147.802020年月月度保费519.532020年月累计同比-0.09%2020年月月度同比-2.44%2020年月月度同比0.60%人身险太保人寿中国人寿新华保险平安寿险太平寿险人保寿险国华人寿2280.00345.001935.0020.51%10.03%22.59%395.601365.10418.29422.4788.55319.2363.4077.85307.051045.88354.89344.6244.22%-12.57%-8.70%-8.18%18.05%-8.52%-0.75%-13.90%54.07%-13.74%-9.99%-6.78%91.402020年月累计保费241.9035.302020年月月度保费65.262020年月月度保费176.64-37.53%2020年月累计同比6.56%-57.32%2020年月月度同比-10.82%-7.92%2020年月月度同比14.83%7.24%产险太保产险平安产险太平财险476.20127.18349.022.72%44.3215.1029.228.24%5.31%9.81%30/35人保财险天安财险众安在线750.2125.95225.147.48525.0718.46-4.40%0.21%-6.79%-14.84%46.34%-3.33%7.94%25.6510.8014.8555.17%2020年月累计同比1.59%62.30%2020年月月度同比3.86%2020年月累计保费909.232020年月月度保费213.062020年月月度保费696.172020年月月度同比-5.17%公司合计中国太保中国平安中国太平中国人保1893.32472.17465.7780.691427.56391.48918.57-8.56%-7.10%-5.13%-7.79%-0.88%-9.32%-8.81%-8.2