大一上-管理学原理第7章决策

决策第7章陈亮博士华东理工大学商学院6–2学习纲要制定决策的假设和类型理性有限理性直觉制定决策的步骤6–3学习纲要(续)

问题和决策的类型6–4决策制定决策在两个或多个方案中做出选择6–5制定决策理性管理者所制定的决策是前后一致的，是追求特定条件下价值的最大化完美理性决策者隐含的假设是：是完全合理的，客观的，合乎逻辑的已经仔细审视问题、查明所有可行的选择有清晰具体的目标将会选择那些使组织利益最大化的方案而不是个人利益在先6–6图表6–6理性假设6–7制定决策(续)有限理性管理者理性的做出决策，但同时也受到自身信息处理能力的限制有限理性决策者隐含的假设：没有搜索出并了解所有的备择方案将满足于—能解决问题的第一种解决方案—而不是考虑所有的方案，选择最优方案进而使产出最大化对制定决策的影响承诺升级：在过去决策的基础上不断增加承诺的现象，尽管有证据证明已经做出的决策是错误的6–8根据直觉决策大家介绍一下自己类似的经历什么是直觉？6–9我们决策的特点

潜意识表意识情绪和行为本能与心智模式信息感觉过滤、加工、组织和解释认知1295%的决策是经过途径1实现的。自我6–10自我的特点自尊自信VS自卑自我肯定，自我价值的认同自傲自私自我意识：自我保护意识，当别人对你的意见、方案提出质疑和建议时，反应是对质疑反驳，对建议表面接受，但实质上是不接受的。6–11自我、情绪对决策的影响屁股决定脑袋一期货公司，陈总、钱总、张总对铜期货的投资安排；钱总对分析员提交的报告，非常不满。6–12情绪对决策的影响见课件《情绪及其对决策的影响》6–13自我、情绪对决策的影响自我决策情绪6–14决策制定决策制定过程识别决策问题和确定决策标准，以及为每个决策标准分配权重开发、分析和选择解决问题的备选方案实施备择方案评价决策结果6–15决策制定你们是怎么决定选购电脑的？是理性的？有限理性？还是凭直觉？6–16图表6–1

决策制定过程6–17步骤1：识别决策问题问题现在状态和希望状态之间的差异问题特征管理者意识到问题存在是“问题”就变成了“问题”迫于压力去解决问题管理者必须拥有职权、预算、信息或其他采取必要行动的资源6–18步骤2：确定决策标准决策标准是解决问题很重要的因素花费——投资所需要的风险——失败的概率顾客的期望——企业成长步骤3：为决策标准分配权重决策标准不是同等重要的：为每一项标准分配权重，以便正确地规定他们的优先次序6–19图表6–2电脑采购决策的指标和权重指标 权重存储量 10电池寿命 8携带重量 6保修 4显示质量 36–20步骤4：开发备择方案确定可行的备择方案列出可以解决问题的备择方案，无需进行评估步骤5：分析备择方案评价备择方案的优缺点基于步骤2和步骤3评价备择方案解决问题的能力。6–21图表6–3 根据决策标准对不同笔记本电脑的价值评估6–22步骤6：选择备择方案选择最优方案选择得分最高的方案步骤7：实时备择方案把备择方案付诸行动把决策传达给有关人员并获得他们对决策的承诺，将决策付诸行动6–23图表6–4根据标准和权重对不同笔记本电脑的评价6–24步骤8：评价决策结果通过方案产生的结果判断其合理性选择方案的实施对问题解决的有效性如何?如果问题没有解决，问题出在哪里?6–25直觉作用直觉决策一种潜意识的决策过程，基于决策者的经验以及积累的判断6–26直觉作用我们应该百分百相信自己的直觉吗？6–27直觉作用Thetotalnumberofpossibledifferentmovesinasinglefameofchessismorethanthenumberofsecondsthathaveelapsedsincethebigbangcreatedtheuniverse.Intuitionisthedefiningqualityofagreatchessplayer.---GarryKasparov6–28直觉作用"Ibelievethemostimportantthingisthatyoushouldtrustyourownfeelingandyourownintuition,andthenactaccordingly".whenfacedwithmorethanonepathofresearch,healwayschoosethemoreradicalone:"intuitionguidesme,givesmeafeelingaboutwhichdirectionIshouldcontinuein."apioneerinthenewfieldofquantuminformationandisrenownedforhisrealizationofquantumteleportationwithphotons.6–29直觉作用1992-1994,CEO,turnedthiscompanyfrombankruptcy;1994,tookKTM,aleaderinthemanufactureofoff-roadmotorcyclesintotheworldofstreetmotorcycles,acompletelydifferentbusiness;helpediteEurope'ssecond-largestsport-motorcyclemanufacturer,with15yearsof25percentrevenuegrowth.by2006,29percentofthecompany'srevenuesderivedfromitsstreetmotorcycles.StefanPierer,CEOofKTMSportmotorcyclesAG6–30直觉作用

WhenitcomestoreallyseriousbusinessdecisionsIultimatelyrelyonmyintuition.it'ssometimesthecasethatrationalargumentsspeakfororagainstsomething,butthensomehowthedecisonstillwon'tleavemeinpeace.IwakeupinthenightandhavethefeelingthatIshoulddoitdifferentlyafterall.KTMRC8视频6–31直觉作用6–32直觉作用executivesroutinelyrelyontheirintuitionstosolvecomplexproblemswhenlogicalmethods(suchasacost-benefitanalysis)simplywon'tdo.thehigheruponthecorporateladderpeopleclimb,themorethey'llneedwell-honedbusinessinstincts.--Hayashi,20016–33直觉作用RalphS.Larsen,chairandCEOofJohnson&Johnson,explainsthedistinction:"Veryoften,peoplewilldoabrilliantjobupthroughthemiddlemanagementlevels,whereit'sveryheavilyquantitativeintermsofthedecision-making.Butthentheyreachseniormanagement,wheretheproblemsgetmorecomplexandambiguous,andwediscoverthattheirjudgmentorintuitionisnotwhatitshouldbe.Andwhenthathappens,it'saproblem;it'sabigproblem.""Oftenthereisabsolutelynowaythatyoucouldhavethetimetothoroughlyanalyzeeveryoneoftheoptionsoralternativesavailabletoyou,"saysLarsen."Soyouhavetorelyonyourbusinessjudgment."--Hayashi,20016–34直觉作用RichardAbdoo,chairandCEOofWisconsinEnergyCorporation,agrees."Aswemovetoaderegulatedmarketplace,wedon'thavethisslowprocessofhearingsandreviewandtwoyearstomakeadecision.Wenowhavetomakedecisionsinatimelymanner.Andthatmeansthatweprocessthebestinformationthat'savailableandinferfromitanduseourintuitiontomakeadecision"--Hayashi,20016–35直觉作用Butthetopjobsatanyorganizationallrequiresoundbusinessinstincts.J&J'sLarsenusesanexampletoexplainwhy:"Whensomeonepresentsanacquisitionproposaltome,thenumbersalwayslookterrific:thehurdlerateshavebeenmet;thereturnoninvestmentiswonderful;thegrowthrateisjustterrific.AndIgetallthereasonswhythiswouldbeagoodacquisition.Butit'satthatpoint--whenIhaveatremendousamountofquantitativeinformationthat'salreadybeenanalyzedbyverysmartpeople--thatIearnwhatIgetpaid.BecauseIwilllookatthatinformationandIwillknow,intuitively,whetherit'sagoodorbaddeal."--Hayashi,20016–36直觉作用After11yearsatthehelmofJ&J,Larsensaysthatonethinghisexperiencehastaughthimistolistentohisinstincts."Ignoringthemhasledtosomebaddecisions,"henotes.AddsAbdoo,"YouendupconsumingmoreRolaids,butyouhavetolearntotrustyourintuition.Otherwise,atthepointwhenyou'vegatheredenoughdatatobe99.99%certainthatthedecisionyou'reabouttomakeisthecorrectone,thatdecisionhaseobsolete."--Hayashi,20016–37直觉过程intuitivedecisionmakingisreallyone'sabilitytorecognizepatternsatlightingspeed--aprocessthatoftenhappensunconsciously.6–38直觉过程Initspurest

sense,intuitionisakindofcompetencethatenablestheintuitor(Wild,1938)to

understandorportrayawholeframe;thatis,somethingthatneitherexistsnorwas

clearlyoutlinedearlier.Yet,whenthatinspirationalmomenttakesplaceitcommonly

sparkssomeideaorthoughtthatwilllikelyengenderaninnovativesolution,avery

specialhumancreation,theunderstandingofacertainsituationorjustaconclusionto

anintricateproblem.Perhaps,thereinliesthereasonwhyJungconceiveditasthe

“noblestofhumangifts”6–39直觉过程KhatriandNgfoundthattheuseofintuitionis

positivelyassociatedwithorganisationalperformancebutonlyinunstableenvironments6–40直觉过程patternrecognitionInference(联想)crossindexing（更抽象地联想）6–41直觉的影响因素ExperienceMentalIntegrationGuidingPrinciples6–42MentalIntegrationHumancognitionisbasedonmentalintegration:wecannotthinkorfunctionwithoutit.First,weintegratesimilarexistentsweperceive:differenttables,trees,people,firmstoformtheconceptsof‘‘table’’,‘‘tree’’,‘‘man’’,‘‘business’’.Forexample,whenweobservemorethanoneitemoffur-niturewithaflatsurfacethatissupportedbylegsandusedforholdingobjects,weintegratethemintoaconcept‘‘table’’.Theconceptoftable(itsdefinition)servesasamentalfileholdingallourknowledgeabouttables;theconceptofbusinessisamentalfileforourknowledgeaboutbusinesses.Wefileinformationaboutthingsbelongingtothesameclassforquickrecallwhenweencounteranewentityorphenomenonthatbelongstothatclass.Therecalledinformationguidesouraction,forexample,bytellingushowtouseanewtableweobserve,orwhatgoalstosetforanewbusinesswefounded.6–43MentalIntegrationMentalintegrationoccursatincreasinglevelsofabstraction.Afterintegratingexistentsintoconcepts,westartintegratingconceptsintobroaderconcepts,suchasfurnitureandmanmadeobjects.Eventu-ally,weintegrateconceptsintoprinciples,suchas:infurnituredesign,formshouldfollowfunction;orcompaniesshoulddifferentiatetheirproductsfromthoseofcompetitors.Thishigherlevelintegrationintomoreabstractconceptsandprinciplesservesthesamepurposeastheintegrationofperceptsintoconcepts:itcondensesinformationtosavementalspaceandallowsarapidrecallofsuchinformation.6–44MentalIntegrationHowweintegrateknowledgegovernsourmentalfilingsystem.Thereisnoonesystemthateveryonefollowsautomatically,particularlyatthehigherlevelsofabstraction.Tointegratebyessentials,onemustfirstidentifytheessenceofwhateveroneisobserving.Theessenceofathing,eventorissueisitsmostfundamentalcharacteristicthatgivesrisetoandmakesitsothercharacteristicspossible.13Forexample,man’sabilitytousereason,whichgovernstherestofhisqualities,suchastheabilitytospeakortodesignandbuildfurnitureortoformandrunabusiness,ishismostfundamentalchar-acteristicdthereforeAristotledefinedmanas‘‘arationalanimal’’.Ifessencesareidentifiedandknowledgeisintegratedintoconceptsandprinciplesbasedonthem,thesubconscious(intuitive)filingandretrievalofknowledgewillbefastandaccurate,facilitatingeffectivedecisionmaking.6–45MentalIntegrationForexample,theessenceofacompanyisitspurpose:productionofgoodsorservicesforaprofit.Ifageneralmanagerintegrateshisorherknowledgebasedonthis,heorshewillquicklyidentifythere-quirementsofprofitableproduction:securingcapitalandotherresources,tradingtheproducedgoodsandservicesatpricesthatexceedcosts,obtainingreturnsthatexceedtheinvestmentandbalancingriskwithreturn.Thismaysoundobvious,yettherearechiefexecutiveswhofailtoidentifyorapplytheessentialrequirementsofsustainedvaluecreation.TheleadershipofEnronisprobablyoneofthemoststrikingexamplesofafailuretoadheretooneofthemostfundamentalofsuchrequirements:focusonreality.Their‘‘WeMakeMarkets’’(WMM)licenceplateswereasignoftheirhubris,stem-mingfromthefailuretoobserverealitycorrectly,whichsignificantlycontributedtoEnron’scollapse.6–46GuidingPrinciplesIntegrationofknowledgebyessentialsnotonlymakesretrievingofinformationfasterandmoreac-curate,italsogivesdecisionmakersanindispensabletool:guidingprinciples.Principlesarethebroad-estintegrations:basedontheessencesofthings,theyidentifyunderlyingcause-effectrelationshipsthatapplytoawiderangeofspecificsituations.Principlesaregeneralisationsinducedfromobserva-tionsorpastexperienceaboutattainingagoal.Theyofferguidancetodecisionmakingineveryfield,suchasagriculture(‘‘cultivatethesoilbeforesowingtheseeds’’),nutrition(‘‘eatbalancedmealscon-sistingofthevariousfoodgroups’’)andcompetitivestrategy(‘‘differentiateyourproductsfromthoseofyourcompetitors’’).15ACEOintentoncreatingvalueforthecompany’sownersidentifiesaprin-ciple:‘‘Riskshouldbecommensuratewiththecompany’sresources.’’Whenencounteringaconcretechoice,heorsherecallsandappliestheprincipleandisabletoreachavalue-creatingdecisionquickly:‘‘DonotexploreforoilintheArcticwhenyoudonothaveresourcesandexpertisetomakeasignif-icantdiscoveryinashortenoughtimeframetoprovideareturncommensuratewiththerisk.’’6–47Howthe‘‘goodminds’’integratedbyessentialsTheoilandgasCEOswith‘‘goodminds’’demonstratedintegrationbyessentials(whereastheirlesseffectivecounterpartsdidnot).19Whendealingwiththescenario,theeffectiveexecutivesfocusedonwhatwasessential:thosefactorsthatmostfundamentallyaffectedprofitableproductionofoilandgasbythecompany.ThefollowingisatypicalassessmentoftheoptionofexploringforoilandgasintheArctic,basedonidentificationofessentials:‘‘It’stooriskyforapubliccompanyofthissizetogoexploringintheArctic.Itdoesnothavetheresourcestomakeasufficientinvestmenttogetareturnlargeenoughtojustifytherisk.ThepaybackintheArcticistoolong;youwouldnotseeanyproductionandrevenueforsevento10years.Theproductiondeclinesareabout20percentannuallyintheWesternCanadiansedimentarybasin;thecompanycannotwaitthatlongbutneedstoaddproductionsooner.Themarketexpectsfasterreturns.AndthecompanydoesnothaveanyexpertiseintheArcticdmakingtheriskevenhigher.’’6–48Howthe‘‘goodminds’’integratedbyessentialsSuchanevaluationshowshowtheeffectiveCEOsintuitivelyretrievedessentialsfromtheirsubconsciously-storedmemoryfiles:fundamentalrequirementsofprofitableproduction(e.g.,adequateresourcesandexpertise,balancedriskandreturn,apaybackperiodshortenough,replacingdecliningproduction,andmeetingmarketexpectations).ThisenabledthemtoanalysetheArcticoptionrationally,dismissitquicklyandtoconcentrateonothersthatwouldcreatevaluemoreeffectively.ThiscommentfromoneoftheeffectiveCEOsisrepresentative:‘‘Wehavecertainskillstoexecuteandcreatevaluebutwecan’tbringforwarddreams.Rightnow,makingmoneyoutoftheArcticisadream.Giventheproblem[theCEO]isfacingandthesizeofthecompany,investingintheArcticisnotgoingtogeneratereturnsthattheshareholderwouldfindacceptable.’’6–49Howthe‘‘goodminds’’integratedbyessentials

Incontrast,thelesseffectiveCEOsretrievednon-essentialknowledge,suchaspreviousaspirationsforinternationalexpansionorfearofcommittingtoanyoption.ThissuggeststhattheseCEOshadnotintegratedtheirknowledgebyessentials.Forexample,onelesseffectiveCEOwantedtoembracetheArcticoptionbecausehefoundit‘‘exciting’’:hehadalwayswantedtoexpandbeyondWesternCanadaanddidnotpayattentiontotheessentialproblemsofrisk,paybackandrequiredresources.AnotherlesseffectiveCEOwouldnotjudgeanyofthethreeoptionsandwantedtokeepthemall‘‘open’’,unwillingtocommittoadecision(despitethatbeingthetaskathand).ThethirdlesseffectiveCEOalsodidnotgettotheessentialsinthescenariobutinsteadproposedtosurveywhatotherswantedhimtodoandgavedetaileddescriptionsofstatisticalanalyseshewouldconductonprospectiveproperties.Whenintuitiondoesnotprovideknowledgeintegratedbyessentials,rationalevaluationisnotpossibleanddecisionmakingishampered.Insteadofessentialknowledge,thenot-so-effectiveCEOs’retrievalprocesswasbasedonvagueassociationsandemotions.Thisdidnothelpthemeffectivelyassessandmakeareasoneddecisionaboutthescenario.6–50GuidingPrinciples见论文

Incontrast,thelesseffectiveCEOsretrievednon-essentialknowledge,suchaspreviousaspirationsforinternationalexpansionorfearofcommittingtoanyoption.ThissuggeststhattheseCEOshadnotintegratedtheirknowledgebyessentials.Forexample,onelesseffectiveCEOwantedtoembracetheArcticoptionbecausehefoundit‘‘exciting’’:hehadalwayswantedtoexpandbeyondWesternCanadaanddidnotpayattentiontotheessentialproblemsofrisk,paybackandrequiredresources.AnotherlesseffectiveCEOwouldnotjudgeanyofthethreeoptionsandwantedtokeepthemall‘‘open’’,unwillingtocommittoadecision(despitethatbeingthetaskathand).ThethirdlesseffectiveCEOalsodidnotgettotheessentialsinthescenariobutinsteadproposedtosurveywhatotherswantedhimtodoandgavedetaileddescriptionsofstatisticalanalyseshewouldconductonprospectiveproperties.Whenintuitiondoesnotprovideknowledgeintegratedbyessentials,rationalevaluationisnotpossibleanddecisionmakingishampered.Insteadofessentialknowledge,thenot-so-effectiveCEOs’retrievalprocesswasbasedonvagueassociationsandemotions.Thisdidnothelpthemeffectivelyassessandmakeareasoneddecisionaboutthescenario.6–51直觉过程Hplexdecisionsbringintoplayaprocessinwhichknowledge,experienceandemotionsarelinked.Researchhasfoundthatpeoplewhohaveacquireddeepwellsofknowledgeandexperience--throughtheircuriosity,opennessandpropensitytoseizeopportunities--areabletoreachgoodintuitivedecisionsmuchmorefrequentlythanpeoplewhopossessarelativelylimitedsphereofexperience.6–52直觉过程patternrecognitionKleinhasdescribedintuitivedecisionmakingasapattern-recognitionprocess:cuesaboutthedecisionsituationleadadecisionmakertorecogniseafamiliarpattern(basedonpriorexperience)whichthenactivatesanactionscript,aroutinewayofrespondingthatmakesdeliberateanalysisunnecessary.6–53直觉过程patternrecognitionthemoreextensiveadecisionmaker'sexperience,themorepatternsheorshewillbefamiliarwith;themorepatterns,thebettertheintuition.6–54直觉过程patternrecognitionX:\MyworksinECUST\research\自我、决策和有心\materials\神奇大脑造就天才6–55直觉过程InferenceIndeed,researchonexpertshasclearlyestablishedthelinkbetweenrepeatedexposuretospecifictypesofprob-lemsthroughpracticeandtrainingandtheabilitytomakedecisionsaccuratelyandfast(Ericsson&Charness,1994;Simon,1987).Throughexpertise,moviedirectorsareabletorecognizeandmatchpatternsinapresentsituationwithsimilarpatternsinprevioussituations.Thisallowsthemtomakeanintuitivedecisionthatresolvesanexternalproblemandachievestaskeffectiveness.6–56直觉过程crossindexingTrulyinspireddecisions,however,seemtorequireanevenmoresophisticatedmechanism:cross-indexing.Indeed,theabilitytoseesimilarpatternsindisparatefieldsiswhatelevatesaperson'sintuitiveskillsfromgoodtosublime.Theyalsoconcludethatintuitionisasyntheticreasoningprocessatplayinalldecisions(andnotonlywhenspecificallycalledon)thatintegratesisolatedpiecesofdataintoatotalpicturebyaccessingasubconsciouslystoredreservoirofcumulativeexperience.<LessonsfromGoodMindsHowCEOsUseIntuition,AnalysisandGuidingPrinciplestoMakeStrategicDecisions>6–57直觉过程crossindexingBobLutzFordCobra6–58直觉过程crossindexingBobLutzDodgeViper6–59直觉过程crossindexingRememberBobLutz'sdecisiontobuildtheViper?Today,hejustifiesthatgutsymovebyusingananalogy."Whenyou'regoingtooslowinanairplane,"heexplains,"youraerodynamicdragbuildsupbecausethenoseoftheairplaneispositionedtoohighandyoucanactuallygettothepointwhere,evenatfullpower,youcan'tgettheairplanetoclimbanymore.Soyouronlysolutionistodropthenoseandtradeoffsomealtitudetogainspeed."Similarly,Chryslerinthelate1980shadlostsomuchmomentumthatitwasindangerofstalling.Topreventthat,theconventionalwisdomcalledforcostcuttingtogainaltitude.ButLutzknewbetter."Peopleweresaying,'You'relowandslowandyou'restrugglingforaltitude.WhatanincrediblybadtimetodropthenoseanddivesomemorebyspendingcashonafrivolousvehicleliketheDodgeViper]'"heremembers."ButtheVipergaveustheforwardmomentumwedesperatelyneeded,bothinternallyandexternallywiththefinancialcommunity,theautomobilemagazines,andallofthoseconstituenciesthatcreatethepsychologicalclimateinwhichyourcompanyeitherprospersordoesn't."6–60直觉过程crossindexingInhisvariedcareer,Pittmanhasseenmanypatternsatwork.AcofounderofMTV,herightlyrealizedwhenhefirstarrivedatAmericaOnlinethatthecompany'ssinglemostimportantjobwastocontinuebuildingandestablishingitsbrand--justasithadbeenforMTVinitsearlydays.PittmanalsopushedhardforAOLtocontinuemovingawayfromabusinessmodelbasedonconsumersubscriptions.(Previously,AOLhadchargedcustomersbythehourbeforegoingtoaflatmonthlyfee.)Thebiggerbucks,Pittmanknew,wereinadvertisingandmercerevenues,notinsubscriptions."Mostpeoplehadbeenthinkingaboutadvertisingasmoneycomingoutofpeople'smediabudgets.Iwantedtotakeabroaderviewanddefineadvertisingaswhatitreallyis:rentingourconsumerrelationshiptounaffiliatedthirdpartiesformoney."Thatchangeinthinkingwasamasterstroke,enablingAOLtomovetoamultibillion-dollarrevenuestreaminjustafewyears.HowcouldPittmanhaveintuitedthat?PerhapshewasinfluencedbyhispreviousexperienceatSixFlagsEntertainment:theprofitsfromamusementparksderivemainlyfromsellingmerchandiseandrefreshments,notfromtheadmissiontickets.6–61直觉过程crossindexingHeremindsusthatNewtonhadconceivedtheuniversalattractionlawpreviouslytowhenthefallingappledemonstratedtohim,inasubtleway,howitworked.6–62直觉的影响因素Wedistinguishintuitivedecision-makingfromemotionsbynotingthattheformerisanon-consciousinformationprocessingsystemaimedatmakingjudgments(Dane&Pratt,2007),whilethelatterareinputstothisprocess.6–63直觉的影响因素Fearcanthusintuitivelyalertpeopl