机经库-ppgmat2018全年寂静起awa-cd原始版

作文寂豪华车口碑（FernandoAutoMarketCo04SpicyPitaSandwich药店竞争（HolnerVS豪华车（auto美食书店（foodfor摩托车生产CEO给董事会的建议生产两种摩托：奢华型和 奢华型费时费力简单易产建议吧奢华型的生产线停产拿去生产 的可以增加利润（byAlexSu7）整理菌注：可能存在两个版本，主要区别在于luxuryline是converttostandardORceasetheluxuryline。V1：跟构筑二战考的几乎一样，就是变了说法。一个CheifExecutiveOfficer在memo上提议说，因为luxurymotorcycles需要morecostandtimetoproduce,建议把luxuryproductionlineconverttostandardproductionline。因为相信此举会improveefficiencyandincreaseprofits.（by安易仁）V2：motorcycle生产公司想要提高生产效率，从而提高利润。这个公司有两条生产线，一个是luxury，一个是standard。生产luxurymotorcycle需要昂贵的parts,和longertimetoproduce，因为是手工的；生产standardmotorcycle的流水线全部用机器，所以需要的时间更短，而且部件更便宜。所以，作者说应该取消luxury的那条生产线，而把它改造成第二条standardmotorcycle的生产线，这样可以提高生产效率，从而提高利润。（bycunzhang2016）V3：某motorcyclecompany想提高他的profits。然后他家有两条生产线，一条是luxurymotorcycles生产线，一条是standardmotorcycles生产线。theauthor说luxurymotorcycles生产线的零件都cost很多，比standardmotorcycles生产线上的多，而且luxurymotorcycles都是用手工组装的，相比起来standardmotorcycles生产线就是自动组装的。所以theauthor觉得应该把luxurymotorcycles生产线拿掉，换成standardmotorcycles生产线。（byL_sEllA）V4：某厂经理决定streaming他家的生产线来提高利润。该摩托车生产公司有twoproductionlines，手工线生产luxurymotorcycles,buttheproductionrequiresmoreexpensivematerialandlongertime;机器人线（robot）生产standardmotorcycles,.公司将cease豪华车生产线inordertoproduceagreatnumberofmotorcyclesmoreefficientlyandgetmoreprofits.V5：AWA考的是MotorcyclesCompany本来有两条productionline,一种luxurymotorcycles一种standardmotorcycles。现在manager想要increaseprofits，决定cut掉luxuryproductionline，因为都要workermadebyhand，相比较来说，standardmotorcycles机械化生产，成本低更efficient，所以要把原来luxury的productionline换城secondstandardproductionline来increaseprofits。（bymxm625）V6：一个生产摩托车的厂家，他的助攻给提建议说：Ourcompanyhastwolinesrightthemoment,oneisluxurymotorcycleline,whichneedsexpensivepartsandisproducedbyhandsAnotheroneisroboticxxxx(这个词忘了lineforstandardmodelsWeshouldreplacetheluxurymotorcyclelinewithasecondroboticlineinordertoincreaseproductivityandtherebyincreaseourprofit.（by新一啊）V7：Aprestigemotorcycleproducerwantstoimproveprofits,soitdecidedtoreplacetheluxurymotorcyclewiththestandardmotorcycleassemblybecausetheluxurypartsareexpensiveandnotefficient.TheCEOthinksbyngso,theprofitwillincrease.（by活泼奋V8：一个摩托车公司的什么manager建议CEO说，公司有两个工厂分别生产motorcycles和standardmotorcycles。luxury那个产品都要手工组装很耗时而且摩托车的原件也贵。而standard的是roboticassemblyline生产的又便宜又快。所以我们应该放弃luxurymotorcycles并把那个工厂也改成用robotic生产的那种，全都生产standardmotorcycles这样我们的profit会increase。（by新年要当学霸）多；不能保证都换成standardline以后销售的摩托车数量会激增。来的利润；2）供求情况，市场是否需要大量普通摩托等。efficiency和profitallthingsequal.标准车市场和豪车市场不同，consumerbase不同，如果改变了生产消新设备的花费构筑提供的思路：（by新一啊weakogy:奢侈品线和标准线不好对比CEO没说两种model的销售是多少，如果luxury更受欢迎且accountforahigherpercentageofsales，取消luxury，消费者会直接去竞争对手那里买，所以revenue会降计划的可实施性。比如会不会两种models对劳动力的skillsets要求不一样。所以这种计划需要moretraining。同理，machine是不是可以直接换去生产standardmodels还是需要additionalcosts？构筑提供的思路：（by新年要当学霸之前生产luxury的工人可能不会robotic的machine，要培训工人费时又费力。而且培训员工的时间，competitor可能就抢占了市场没有市场说客户喜欢他们的luxury产品。如果很喜欢，你停产这个产品，客户会很伤心连standard又不买了增加profit还有别的方法blablabla豪华车口碑（FernandoAuto豪华车口碑(FernandoAutoService)（byV1：说Fernand’sLuxuryAutoService，以往都通过traditionaladvertising的（像TV，Radio，杂志之类）来吸引顾客，花费很高。最近它的owner给marketingmanager留言听来的建议（wordofmouth/mouth-to-mouth 头，对一些感到满意的顾客 。而且这个AutoService有自己的 于产品的信息和其他顾客的真实评价等信息。这些做法，最终提升customerbase。这种方式会更effective，所以减少（还是取消？）traditionalad.（byPapaDoc01）V2：一个叫做FernandoLuxuryautoserviceXXX的Automobile公司的市场部门建议大意：Sincelastfewyearswehavealreadyspentalotofmoneyontraditionaladvertisingsuchastvandradiobutcustomerspreferword-of-mouth mendationsfromfriendsandacquaintances.Soweshouldsetupdigitalcamerasinourshops,interviewingthosesatisfiedcustomers.Wecanthenupdatethesonthewebsitefrequently.Sincethecompanyhasawebsitealready,updatingthesonlineisaninexpensivewayofadvertising...Asaresult,everytimewhenpeopleseeking mendationsonline,theywillseepeopleinthestalkingaboutoftheexcellentautomobilesofourserviceshop.Sotheproposalwillincreaseourcustomerbaseandbringmoresalesthantraditionaladvertisingmethods.（byvincy613）V3：Fernandoautoservice公司，原来主要通过TV、radio（tranditionaladvertising）radio，会带来销量？大概是这样。。（by奥迪girl）V4：amemothattheownerofaluxuryautomobiletoldthemarketingmanagertheof-mouthstrategythatpeopleprefer mendationsfromtheirfriendsandacquaintancestoadvertisements.inordertohavemorecustomers,theycaninterviewsomein-storecustomerstomakesandputthesonthirownwebsite.（byhahouhei）V5：一个luxurycarcompany在上的花费一直很多，觉得traditionaladvertisingbasedonTV,radio,etc.不是那么effective，因为现在的customerpreferword-to-mouthmendationsandfriendsacquiesce.所以决定interviewsatisfiedcustomersandputtheonthewebsite.这样顾客就可以询浏览网上其他顾客的interview，从而增加customerbase。（byHazel2023）构筑提供的点：（by quality,brandname,aftersale构筑的观点：（by淇水汤汤的汤还有一个想提高销量不一定从入手，因为可能顾客看到了，因为产品本身research针对的mechanicpiece是不是包含luxurycar。因为car本身就比较特殊，luxuryluxurycar不仅是汽车，更是一种的象征。所以人们买它的时候不是为了followpopulartrends，而是为了showextinction。所以他们才不会听朋友的意见都买一样的东西只有能人们产生了一定，做targetsearch的时候才有可能对消费者有用，否则人家谁辣么闲要来看你啊。 Settingupdigitalcamerasandhiringpeopletoupdatethesonlinecanbringextracosttothecompany.所以inexpensive不成立Theassumptionthatthewebsiteiseasilyaccessibletoeveryoneisdubious.有可能对手花钱把自己的放在搜索引擎toplist，或者这个不是很有名很难被搜索到。( 本来就已经对你感了，没必要再用 MarketCoMarketCo（by咕咕贝V1：AssistantMKTdirector给MKTdirector的一个proposal：MarketCo是一家大型连锁超市。内部公司表明，在一些suburban小城市，尽管Marketco的产品有betterpriceandmoreselection，当地prefergotolocalgroceryshops，研究认为是因为人们对localgrocerystoresdevelopedloyalty。为了帮smallercityfranchise赢得的customerloyalty，提高marketshare和becompetitiveintheindustry，assistantdirectorproposestoshifthalfofthenationaladvertisingbudgetintosponsoringlocalcommunityprojects（列了三个project的例子：opencommunityartcenter，buildyouthsoccerfields，sponsorafter-schoolprogram）。这样可以让MarketCobeseenaspartoflocalcommunitybylocalshoppers，persuadelocalgroceryshopperstotryMarketCo，而大型超市价廉物美的优势increasemarketshareandkeepcompetitiveinindustry.（by壮儿壮）V2：MemofromadirectioninasupermarketcompanycalledMarketCo:"Localgrocerystoreshaveveryhighcustomerloyaltieswithinthelocalcommunities.PeoplekeepshopinthestoresevenlargeSupermarketssuchasMarketCooffersbetterprice.Therefore,MarketCoshouldallocatemorefundstodevelopcommunityprojectssuchasschoolsoccerteam thiswillhelpthecompanygainmoremarketshareandremaincompetitiveintheindustry."（byV3：ThisarticleisfromaletterwrittenbytheassistantmarketingdirectorofMarketCo:PeopleinsmallercitieswhereMarketCooperatestendtochooselocallyownedgrocerystoresoverourchainstores.Oursurveyshowsthisisbecausethesepeopledevelopedloyaltieswiththelocalstores.Weshouldallocatemorenationalfundingtocommunityprojectsinthesecities,suchasyouthsoccerevents,artscentre,after-schoolactivitiessothatpeoplewilldeveloployaltieswithMarketCoandpurchasemoreatourstores.（by的点包括：（byFalseCasualrelationship:Loyalty和消费选择的关系没有详细论据，忽略了其他因素，比如交通，服务态度.；做也许效果比developconsumerloyalty项目的效果更好，建操场之类顾客不一定买账；调整宣传的预算搞基建就能让localpeople在MarketCo买东西?培养客户忠诚度是一个漫长的过程。AllthingsareequalseenasalocalseenasalocalThestatisticallyreliabilityofsurvey/research(whoconducted,whoresponderorhowthesurveywereconducted)构筑提供槽点：（by因果关系communityprojects没准可以增强brandname但不一定带动sales还有其他实地全等现在人们preferlocalstore没准过两年自己又都回来了呢瞎闹什opportunitycost那一半budget无关假设:movesomeoftheinternationaladvertisingbudgettofundingoflocalcommunity就可以increasethelocalmarketshare，更不能说就能develoployalty.构筑槽点：（by此季未繁华cut一半的budget风险太大，这里花了一半说明别的generalpromotion必然会少用,那么salesfrom其他非local的顾客势必会减少，从而使收益降低，入不敷出largesupermarketchain和grocerystores不是一种类型的商店，建议chain可以发挥它national或者broader的特点，而不是拘泥于模仿grocerystoresargument没说consumersloyaltoL的原因。文中说L是localowned，maybeconsumers构筑提供的思路：（by顾钺声 大超市和store2除了因为对local的loyalties,当地居民不去连锁超市可能还有其他原因，比如交通构筑提供的思路：（by进击的铭铭1)1错误类比杂货摊和超2)2没有具体样本容量也没有样本特征更没有时间时过境迁啊3loyalty【本月寂静】考sandwichshop要不要被一個連鎖漢堡店併購，被併購的話有降低成本跟廣告費用降低的好處（bybradpitbull）V1：是说GeorgePolous这个人两年前在Sallon这个小镇开了一个餐馆。这个小镇是个大的经营和管理，公司的销售蒸蒸日上，一种spicysandwiches卖得很好，应该是说salesdramaticallyincreased。然后他就想在threenearbytownsandcities再开三家分店，让入？）willbeabletotriplehiscurrentprofits.（byFigoLee）V2：AWA：George这个人，在townSallon开了一个spicysandwich的餐厅，然后Sallon是employee去当新的餐厅的manager。George认为这样的话，他的currentprofit会triple。（byV3：George是一家餐厅的创始人，他的餐厅卖Spicypitasandwiches功，这家原始餐厅开在smalltown，这家town有一所大学。George准备开三家连锁店，在附近的town或者city,他觉得自己能成功；这三家连锁店的店长他会启用创业期就跟着他的三个员工，所以他认为自己的profit会triple。（byky_yang）V4：Theargumentwasaboutaparagraphfromarestaurantbusinessnewsletteraboutsmallfranchiserestaurants:Asmallrestaurantowner,George,openedapitaEmporiuminacollegetownSallon.Hisrestauranthasbeenquitesuccessfulforthelast2years.Sohedecidedtoopenanother3restaurantsinnearbycitiesandtowns.Healsoplanstopromotehis3employeeswhohavebeentrainedunderhimtobethemanagersofthenewrestaurants.Heexpectshisprofitswilltripleafterallrestaurantsareopened.（byV5：作文：考了pita店扩张，我遇见的题是说他们发现spicypitasandwichsalesrisedramaticallyoverthepastfewyears,sohedecidestoopenanother3restaurants。所以我觉得另一个可以的点是只有spicypitasandwich的salesincrease了，也许对整个是什么increase了。（bypupu77）V6：是一个GeorgePoulos的人，两年前开了家Pita什么的店，开在大学城附近有thousandsofstudents，卖spicypitasandwiches，然后他发现这家店的利润在两持为三家新店的manager，然后他觉得他能获得三倍利润。（by小小西P）V7：Theargumentwasaboutaparagraphfromarestaurantbusinessnewslettersmallfranchiserestaurants.Asmallrestaurantowner,George,openedapitarestaurantinacollegetownSallon.Hisrestauranthasbeenquitesuccessfulforthelast2years.Sohedecidedtoopenanother3restaurantsinnearbycitiesandtowns.Healsoplanstopromotehis3employeeswhohavebeentrainedunderhimtobethemanagersofthenewrestaurants.Heexpectshisprofitswilltripleafterallrestaurantsareopened（byAAlias）手，快餐店的食品、服务和卫生也必要考虑的因素。利润涨三倍，明显缺乏数据和分析，盲目乐观oversimplify。或者富人居住区，就会少有顾客来吃pita。全没有管理经验，很可能管理，犯下大错，然后赔本关门，甚至把老店也赔进构筑提供的思路：（by小小西构筑的点：（by 航空公司削减航线（airlineeliminate涨的其他航空公司利润没降，所以一定是新航路原因（bygongqifeng）V1：ThebusinessystwriteantohisCEO:TheprofitofProvinciaAirlinehasdecreasedlastyear.Atthesametime,itexpandeditsoperation.Alsooilpriceincreaseddrasticallyinthebeginningoftheyear.Assomeotherairlinesalsofacedtheroaringoilpriceandtheywereabletoincreasetheirprofitability,theoilpricesalonenotthereasonforthelossinprofits.Thenewlyadded5flights(expandedoperation)shouldberesponsibletolossinprofits.Inordertoreturntoprofitability,weshouldeliminatenewflightsaddedearlierthisyear.（bynevsaynev222） beginningoftheyear油价还蹭蹭的涨，咱们fuelexpenditure也蹭蹭的涨！但这并不是重点！其他competitor在这种情况下还increaseprofit了呢！所以问题一定出在这新加的几个newflights里面！so我们要斩草除根！eliminate这些新航线以后咱profit肯定蹭蹭的涨！（Byangelacheung）公司燃油成本上升。也是在去年，公司增加了一些flightsto5cities.因为其他航空公司eliminate那些flights。（by励志型yy） 也是导致profits下降的原因，所以下一年要取消它们，为了increaseprofits。（byV5：TheprofitofProvinciaAirlinehasdecreasedlastyear.Atthesametime,ititsoperationAlsooilpriceincreaseddrasticallyinthebeginningoftheyear.Assomeotherairlinesalsofacedtheroaringoilpriceandtheywereabletoincreasetheirprofitability,theoilpricesalonenotthereasonforthelossinprofits.Thenewlyadded5flights(expandedoperation)shouldberesponsibletolossinprofits.Inordertoreturntoprofitability,weshouldeliminatenewflightsaddedearlierthisyear.（by我也在这里）构筑提供的思路：（byTheCEOfailstoestablishthecasualrelationshipbetweenthedeclineinprofitandaddingflight.Thesequenceofthesetwoevents,byitself,doesnotwarranttheformercausedthelatter.Therearemanypotentialfactorsthatmaycausethedecline.For UnlesstheCEOwouldruleoutallthesepossibilities,itisgratuitoustoattributethedeclineinprofittotheaddingflightsinsomecities.Anyattemptaimingtosolvetheproblemofdeclineinprofitmustbaseonathoroughinvestigationtogatherdatainordertonarrowdownandlocatetheactualcauseofthedecline.TheCEOcommitsfalse ogybyequatingProvinciaAirlineandotherairlines.Thedissimilaritiesbetweentheairlinesmayoutweighthesimilarities,thusmakingthecomparisonlessvalid.Itispossiblethatsomeotherairlineswereenjoyingtheoilcompensationfromthe ernments,whichwerepromotingtheirownnationalbrandinairlineindustry,tooffsidetheeffectofhighoilprice,whileProvinciaAirlinewasnotenrolledtosuchcompensationatall.TheCEOunfairlyassumesthateliminationofflightssufficestostopthedeclineinprofit.Ifthedeclinewascausedbyacombinationoffactors,suchas,someofwhichwillstillremaininthefuture.Amereeliminationofflightsmayhaveinsignificantimpactonthedeclineinprofit.Furthermore,theCEOalsomakestheassumptionthateliminationofflightsisnecessarytostopthedeclineinprofit.Commonsenselsustherearemanysuchpossiblefactorsas TheCEOmustexplainwhynoneofthemwasavailableorwhytheyallfailedtoachievethesame充分必要条件：flightexpansion是profit错误类比：其他公司increasetheirprofitability，也许是他们的服务更好，航线更无根据假设：Decreaseflightexpansion一定会使profit上升？虽然减少航班数量，可以减少overallcost，但是revenuefromtheseflights也是同样减少。构筑提供的思路：（by露牙牙Falseogy:P航空公司和其他航空公司情况不会完全一样，那些profits有增长的构筑提供的点：（byfalseogy：procia公司跟其他公司情况不一样，不能类比，有可能其他公司的管构筑提供的思路：（by励志型false构筑提供的思路：（by菜菜菜菜即便现在关闭cost是sunkcost(飞机，招聘新人ect)于事无错误类比：其他航空公司没准有marketingn,renovate机舱，提升服务促使要看longtermbenefits，新航线可以拓宽market，增加customer的构筑提供的思路：（by宋痂 无理假设：认为引进thenewflights和oilprice上升在同时发生，都是导致cost上涨无因果联系：认为thenewflights导致cost上升，不一定，没有做cost-benefits分构筑思路：（by并且做balance构筑提供的思路：（by饼饼eitherorchoice，可能有其它原因导致利润下降，比如经济大环境啊，服务质量啊，员，可能会带来的社会评价，进一步profit咖啡店feedback反馈（HotCup讲一个cafe的report说他们会在receipt上印feedbackwebsite，顾客可以容易找到这个网站。这个feedbackwe service很好，thereisnoneedtoimprovetheprocedure.（bypeninsula0204）V1：一家名叫HotCupCafes的customersservicedivision写了篇report给CEO，说：6个月以前，咖啡店在在他们的website上弄了一个customerfeedbackpage，希望可以接受 plaint。websiteaddressclearlyprintedoneachreceipt，所以customers肯定很容易找到。自从feedbackpagewentonline的六个月以来，我们只收到了178封complaint和50封suggestion，然而我们serve了超过300,000杯咖啡。Clearly,mostcustomersaresatisfiedwithourcurrentproductsandservices,我们不需要再继续evaluateorimprove现有的productsandservices了。（byangelacheung）V2：AreportwrittenbyanemployeeoftheHotCupCafe:"Inthepastsixmonths,ourhavebegunusinganonlinefeedbackpageforourcustomers.Weprintthewebsiteaddressonthereceiptsofallthecustomers,soitiseasyforthemtofindtheaddress.Sincethefeedbackpagewentonline,wehaveonlygot68complaintsand131suggestions,whileourcafeshaveservedmorethan600,000coffeedrinksintheperiod.Therefore,wecanassumethatalmostallcustomersaresatisfiedwithourproductsandcustomerservices,andthuswedonotneedtoevaluateorimproveproceduresanymore"（byV3：HotCupCafe：Thecompanyopenedanonlineservicecentercollectsfadebackcustomers.Thewebsiteaddressisclearlyprintedonthereceipt,socustomerscaneasilyfindthefadebackwebsite.Theservicecenterreceive152complaintsand75suggestions.Becausethecompanysoldmorethan300,000cupsofcoffeedrinksafteritopenedtheonlineservicecenter,thecompanydoesnotneedtoimproveitsproductsandservicecenter.（by嗯哼哼哼）卖出的咖啡数≠实际的顾客数。诚然很多人来coffeeshop是给自己买咖啡，但有可即便websiteaddress很清楚，customer也不一定会专门上去。其一，如果customer对产品或者服务不满意，在店内可以直接与managerargue而不需要再跑到网上说一通；其二，如果website很不user-friendly或者feedbackpage比较难找，customer一个successfulbusiness是需要长期evaluate和improve自己的productandservices，在 petitiveadvantage才能在行业中领先。respondentsbias:绝大多数人可能只有一点不满意，他们不bother上网去反应而是以。所以这些情况都不ruleout怎么能推出大多数顾客都满意这样的结论呢？叁考思路2：（by receipt，也可能付钱的是一个人，有意见的是另一个，但是并没有看到上的信-构筑提供的思路：（by我有一朵小黄花TheargumentassumesthatcustomerswouldactuallyseethewebsiteinfoontheTheargumentassumesthateveryonehasaccesstointernetandknowhowtouseTheargumentassumesthatthereisnoneedforimprovementwithoutyzingthesurveyresult.1.印在receiptreceipt啊他们可能需要incentive啊或者没有时间很匆忙啊2.不能只靠survey的结果来作为唯一依据，可能有任何不满的experience直接跟店员3.这只是过去6个月的情况，未来有很多未知啊，比如可能会有competitor开在附近1你说印的clear就真的clear啊.可能很小顾客ignore，甚至还有许多顾客是不要的，并且也有可能顾客觉得输入或者过程太complex，所以没理由说顾客have2.这是一个servicedivision对CEO写的report可能有夸大自己performance而虚报数量的嫌疑，所以熟悉来源不可靠。（随后改进可以说从这个网上download数据具体信息4.即使上面说的问题都properlysolved一家公司（还是）想要持续更好的经营，一定要不断的improve他们的procedure去适应现在的环境去适应客户的需求。Inthisargument,theauthorconcludesthat.Theydon'tneedtomakeanyimprovement.Tosupportthisconclusion,theauthorreasonsthat.Only179complaintsandsuggestionsarerespondedbytheircustomersoutof30000cupsofcoffee.Whichmeansthatalmostallthecustomersaresatisfiedwiththeircurrentproductsandcustomerservicedepartment,asthefollowingdiscussionshows,thisargumentiscriticallyflawedinseveralrespects.Tobeginwith,theconclusionisbasedontheassumptionthatallthecustomerswhoarenotsatisfiedwiththecafesubmitcommentsonthewebsites,thisassumption,however,isproblematic,theauthorfailstoconsiderthattheremaybealargenumberofcustomerswhowerenothappywiththeservicebutdidn'ttrytocomplainonthewebsite.Itisentirelypossiblethatsomecustomersaretoobusytorespondtheircomplaints,orthattheyarejustchosenotgotothecafeanymoreinsteadofexpressingtheirunpleasant.Inaddition,theauthorassumingthatcustomersarenotdifficulttoaccessthefeedbackpageonthegroundthatthewebsiteaddressisclearlyprintedoneachreceipt,thisassumptionisalsoquestionable,sinceitispossiblethatmanycustomersarenotusedtokeepreceiptorthewebsiteaddressistoosmalltodrawtheirattentions.Unlesstheauthorcanruleoutthesepossibilities,canthisassumptionbeSecondly,evenifcustomerswhodidn'tsubmittheircomplaintsandsuggestionareallsatisfiedwiththecafe’sserviceandproducts,theauthor'spredictionthatalmostallthecustomersaresatisfiedwiththeircurrentproductsandservicedepartmentisstillopentodoubt,since300000cupsofcoffeedon'tmeanthereare300000customers,itishighlypossiblethatsomecustomersbuythecoffeeeveryday,orsomecustomersbuymorethanonecupofcoffeeeverytimetheygotothecafe,thus,itishighlypossibleplaintsand21suggestionaccountsforalargepartofthecustomersboughtthecoffee.Withouttheinformationabouthowmanycustomersindeedboughtcoffeeinthelast6months,Ihavegoodreasontodoubtthatwhetheralmostallthecustomersaresatisfiedwiththecoffeeandservice.Finally,evenifthecustomerswhoareunsatisfiedwiththecafedoaccountsforasmallpartofallcustomers,itisunfairlyfortheauthortoclaimthatthelast6month'sserviceandproductwillremainsatisfiescustomersinthefuture,itisverylikelyothercoffeecafesnearthehotcupcafearekeepdevelotheirproductsandservices,ifhotcafedoesn'thaveimprovement,theirwilllosetheircustomersinthelongrun.Tosumup,thisargumentislogicallyflawedandthereforeunwarrantedasitstands,tostrengthentheargument,theauthorwouldhavetoprovideevidencethatallthecustomerswhonotsubmittothewebsiteareallsatisfiedwiththecafe,.tobetterassesstheargument,Iwouldalsoneedtoknowmoreinformationaboutothercafesandwhethertheyareimproving.HR一个电子消费品制造厂的CEO写给HRdirector的信：这个工厂在过去8年里一直都招新员工，同时profitmargin也一直在涨。他们认为是新员工有足够的skillsandmotivation努了。制造车间甩锅给HR部门，说是因为他们招的newemployee不像以前一样有skillsandmotivation，导致公司利润下降。（byzkx123）ThefollowingappearedinamemorandumfromtheCEOofaconsumermanufacturingfirmtotheheadofthecompany'shumanresourcesdepartment,whoisresponsibleforhiringnewemployees:"Eightyearsago,ourfirm'sprofitswereincreasingwitheachnewemployeeweadded.Wediscoveredthateachemployeehadtheskillsandmotivationtogeneratemorerevenueforthefirmthanhisorhersalarycostus.However,forthepasttwoyears,ourprofitmarginhasbeenfalling,eventhoughwehavecontinuedtoaddemployees.Thus,ourneweremployeesarenotgeneratingenoughrevenuetojustifytheirsalaries.Wemustnotbehiringnewemployeeswiththesamelevelofskillsandmotivationasthoseweusedtoattract.Clearly,then,failuresinthehumanresourcesdepartmentaccountforourfallingprofits."构筑提供的思路：（by刀刀制造部的“feel”怎么可以当一个有效的呢？在没有soildevidence的情况下构筑提供的思路：（by飞行少年除了员工以外，还有许多公司内部及外部的因素导致fallingprofit，内部比如管理疏忽、生产的产品质量下降（导致顾客量减少);外部比如顾客taste变化、替代品的出这个时间来不及我就乱写了，因为题目里说是thedirectorfeel…，我就说取得的gratuitousassmption:director“felt”这词，没有经过严谨的，就不能光凭felt就不能全怪newemployees,时过境迁了，oldemployees未必像从前那样高产。可能真正原因是oldemployees跟不上时代，拖累了整个employees群体的productivity,resultinginfallingprofits.causalsimplification（不是人力的错，可能是公司管理差，导致员工不能发挥最大潜 构筑提供的思路：（by杀CEO只是听manufacturedepartment的head一面之词，只是那个head如此feel，没有实际数据证明是因为humanresourcedepartment雇佣的人不够好才导致公司利益下客。而Kirby一开始是在A地方的city开了一家店，而后又在A地方的其他地方开了3家店。我们只要在Kirby开店的附近开店，且我们在nationalbrands上因为大宗药价领头羊。（by强悍小妮）V1：Holner'sdrugstorechain memotoCEO:Holner'sdrugstorewithKirby'sandotherdrugstoresincityAllesberg.Kirbyhasmanyloyalcustomers.Kirbystarteditsfirststoreindowntown,thenexpandedtoseverallocations(3chainstores).IfHolneropensstoresincloseproximitytoKirby'sstores,canconvincecustomerstoHolen's.ThiswillallowthecustomerstoseethatHolenofferslowerpricesbecauseHolenhaseconomyofscale.Holenwill eAllesberg'smarketleader.（byVakarian）V2：一个大药店连锁公司Holner’s的vice给CEO：Holner’sdrugstorechain希望进入快速发展的Allesberg市localmarket。在Allesberg市，KirbyDrug（localdrugstore）拥有最大的marketshare，并且顾客都是长期忠实的顾客。多年前KD第一间店 petitor也在A市开了几家新drugstore，但是这些新开的药店都没有什么，thelargestshareofcustomerloyaltoKirby公司，因为K公司的地理位置好，Holner's的Vice认为Holner's应该效仿KD的这个模式把H打算开的分店都开在有KD分店（closeproximitydistance）的地方（潜在信息:有KD分店的地方就拥有大量客源）,用价格优势打击对手并gain他们的loyalcustomer，KD的long-term客户们就会放弃KD而H的药品，理由是H的售价比KD的低很多，因为thepriceofnationaldrugsfromrscanbelowersincethehighvolumeofpurchase。Holner's认为这个策略可以让Holner's很快成为A市的leadingdrugstore。（byXua）V3：drugstoreAisplanningtodevelopitsmarketincityW.AhasaninformationthatdrugstoreBisquitesuccessfulinthecityWandhasestablisedthreeadditionalstoresindifferentlocationsinrecentyears.Inaddition,thecustomersofdrugstoreBareveryloyalandaredifficulttobeattractedbyotherstores.SotheauthorsuggeststhatAestablishthreeadditionaldrugstoresjustnexttothelocationsofB.AcanattractthecustomersfromBbyprovidinglowpricesofcertainmarksforwhichAcannegotiatewithhighV4：VPofpharmaceuticalcompanysuggeststhatthefirmopenupstoresnettothethreeoperatedbyalocaldrugstore,whoistheleadplayerinthecity 过去十年都没能竞争过localstore,buttheirstrategywillhelpthecompanysucceed.（byV5：一个药店（Holners’）的vice给CEO写了个memorandum，说准备在一个家的药店（叫Kxxx）成功。Kxxx这家药店在Allexx开了3家店都很成功。vice说loyal客户，价格优势源于Holners'有能力从r手中购得大量药品。并通过上述成功夺取客户的途径，Holners'可以成为Allexx地区的leading药店。（bysparklestar）V6：如果这样做的话，H药店成为leadingdrugstore指日可待。（by逗逗逗逗你玩V6：大概意思是，一个nationaldrugstorechain想要在A城开3家店。之前有两个rival试图和localdrugstoreKirbyDrug抢市场，但是失败了。我们公司的策略是进攻Kirbybyopenning3locationsneartheircurrentlocations.因为我们公司可以拿到很好的pricingonnationalbranddrugs,我们可以抢走KirbyDrug'scurrentcustomersand etheleadingdrugstoreinA城。（byBerrilicious）构筑提供的思路：这篇是reasoning，狗主觉得还是挺好答的：（byXua较低，人口特别是化人口多（老年人通常需要买的药）等等，但几年前的情况不等于现在的情况。现在的那些地方可能上涨，而A市里可能还有其他地方的长期忠实于D的客户肯定是看重D产品的质量、药效，还有D的服务等其他因D介意价高且续的只为的比D高信把asa的。构筑提供的思路：（by老猫吃面thefactcanbeexplainedbyavarietyofignorethecostandthe构筑提供的思路：（by漩鸣飞很多人来这里只是为了买K店的药，所以H店损失了很多潜在客户（potentialcustomer)构筑提供的思路：（byCharlest）无端假设（vice认为价格优势即可帮助Holners'夺取Kxxx药店的忠诚客简单的把leadingdrugstore与客户多划等号，但也许评判一家药店是否为leading还有H的nationalbranddrugs价格便宜不一定可以吸引到a市的客户，可能a市的人不喜欢用Nationalbrand的药，他们更喜欢Localbrand的药，而k家卖Localbrand更便宜。忽略了重要失败案例。文章提到两个drugchainstore都尝试在a市开药店最后失呢，importantissuesnotaddressed.不知到客源多少用nationalbranddrugs,是否足够 ethedrugstore-dubiouswhydidtheothertwocompetitorsfail?Asnationalchains,theyprobablyhadthesamelowpricingsonnationalbranddrugs.作文写到的是要把一个warehousedistrict转变成creativeindustries然后把manufacturingeconomy变成creativeeconomy的是一个citymayor的计划总之（byV1：AletterfromCityPlannertotheMayorofSteelville,atraditionalmanufactureandmid-sizedindustrialtown:Creativeindustries,suchaspublishing,fashion,softwaredesign,architectureetc.arethemostvibrant,growingeconomyofthecontemporaryworldSteelvilleCityamiddle-sizedtownwantstotransformitstraditionaleconomytothenewcreativeeconomy,soitneedstofindwaystoattractthesecreativeindustries.Scholarshavefoundthatpeoplewhoworkinthesesectorsareattractedtourbanlivingenvironmentsthatfeaturepedestrian-friendlyspaces.Toconvertthetraditionalmanufacturingindustrytotheneweconomyandcreatenewjobsector，heproposestorenovateawarehousedistricttobuilda10-blockpedestrian-onlyarea，然后建一些设施比如说performingartscenter,cafeteria,fashionshops,chairsonthestreet之类的。最后说这样的话就一定能吸引那些创意型企业过来（attractpeoplewhoworkincreativeeconomy）以及energizetheentireeconomyandguaranteetheeconomyrenewalbyprovidingnewsectorofjobs。Pleaseevaluatetheargumentandtheplan.（bysiennasong）构筑提供的参考点：（bysiennasong）Casualoversimplificationurbanlivingenvironment不一定是创意型企业考虑选址的那个10-blockpedestrianarea因为是给行人走的，不许用车，所以对于很多企业比如说Publishing,fashion已经要materialsample的，可能很不方便。构筑提供的点：（by假设错误，你不能保证通过oldwarehouse的改造就一定能吸引creative时地全等，你花个几年建完了，到时候还流行creativeindustry吗？creative入不敷出，花了这么多钱，creativeindustry不来怎么办，authorfailstooutweighcostagainstrevenue.构筑提供的点：（byScholarsrecentlyarguethatthecreativesectorsarethemostrapidlygrowingincontemporaryeconomy没有有力支持可信度；而且发展最快也不代表最能带来经Cityplannerassumesthenewcreativeindustry和traditionalmanufacturingindustry相比可以带来收益，并不能证明这点，需要research和profitforecastofeach.没有考虑ifthecostofdemolishingtheoldmanufacturingplantsandrenovationbegreaterthanthebenefitbroughtinbythenewperformingartsevents和restaurantsand构筑提供的思路：（by大雨栗子错误认为MIDSIZEDINDUSTRIALTOWN可以变为URBANLIKECREATIVEINDUSTRIES可能并不是因为环境的改变而进入TOWN的，也可能是因为本来就有这些CREATIVEINDUSTRY才逐渐把社区改造成有生气的样子的【因果倒置】SCHOLARARGUES并不能完全体现充分，人家学者只是觉得这些企业有发展前途，未必就是一定啊【缺少SAMPLE,SURVEY等SUPPORT】构筑提供的思路：（by钛合金娘子Causaloversimplificatioin:Otherfactor,suchasmunicipalservices,transportation,andinveatmentpolicies,maybevirtuallycrucialinthedevelopmentoftheSteelville'seconomy.Gratuitousassumption:Theargumentrestsonthepoorassumptionthattherenovationfromanoldwarehousetoapedestrain-onlyspacewillboostthemunicipaleconomy.Either-orchoice:Theargumentunfairlyassumesthattheoldwarehouseandanewpedestrain-onlyspacearemutuallyexclusiveandthemayormustmakeaneither-orchoice,buttheauthorfailstoruleoutthepossibilitythatthecoexistenceoftheoldwarehouseandanewpedestrain-onlyspacemayproducebetterresults.Gainsvsexpenses:Theauthorfailstotakeintoaccounttheincreaseincostofthetransitionformthewarehousetoapedestrain-onlyspace,andtheinefficiencythatmayarisefromsuchasuddentransition.Allconditionsarethesame:Itispossiblethatthetrend(identifiedbytheautho