北大光华组织与管理Week决策

Chapter6DECISIONMAKING:THEESSENCEOFTHEMANAGER’SJOB©JianjunZhang6-1LearningObjectivesYoushouldlearnto:Outlinethestepsinthedecision-makingprocessExplainwhydecisionmakingissopervasiveinorganizationsDescribetherationaldecisionmakerContrasttheperfectlyrationalandboundedlyrationalapproachestodecisionmakingExplaintherolethatintuitionplaysinthedecision-makingprocess©JianjunZhang6-2LearningObjectives(cont.)Youshouldlearnto:IdentifythetwotypesofdecisionproblemsandthetwotypesofdecisionsthatareusedtosolvethemDifferentiatethedecisionconditionsofcertainty,risk,anduncertaintyDescribethedifferentdecision-makingstyles©JianjunZhang6-3Importanceofdecision-makingDecisionschoicesfromtwoormorealternativesallorganizationalmembersmakedecisionsEverybodyhastomakelotofdecisionsinhis/herlifetimeDecisionsintheManagementFunctions©JianjunZhangTheDecision-MakingProcessProblemIdentificationIdentificationofDecisionCriteriaAllocationofWeightstoCriteriaDevelopmentofAlternativesImplementationofanAlternativeEvaluationofDecisionEffectivenessAnalysisofAlternativesSelectionofanAlternative©JianjunZhangDecision-MakingProcessacomprehensive,8-stepprocessStep1-IdentifyingaProblemproblem-discrepancybetweenanexistingandadesiredstateofaffairsmustbesuchthatitexertspressuretoactmanagerisunlikelytocharacterizeasituationasaproblemunlesss/hehasresourcesnecessarytoactDecisionMaking©Jianjun

ZhangDecision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step2-IdentifyingDecisionCriteriadecisioncriteria-what’srelevantinmakingadecisionStep3-AllocatingWeightstotheCriteriamustweightthecriteriatogivethemappropriatepriorityinthedecisionStep4-DevelopingAlternativeslisttheviablealternativesthatcouldresolvetheproblemwithoutevaluatingthemStep5-AnalyzingAlternativeseachalternativeisevaluatedagainstthecriteriaDecisionMaking(cont.)©JianjunZhang

AssessedValuesofNotebookComputerAlternativesAgainstDecisionCriteria

©JianjunZhangEvaluationofLaptopComputerAlternativesAgainstCriteriaandWeights©JianjunZhangDecisionMaking(cont.)Decision-MakingProcess(cont.)Step6-SelectinganAlternativechoosingthebestalternativefromamongthoseconsideredStep7-ImplementingtheAlternativeimplementation-conveyingthedecisiontothoseaffectedbyitandgettingtheircommitmenttoitparticipationindecision-makingprocessinclinespeopletosupportthedecisiondecisionmayfailifitisnotimplementedproperlyStep8-EvaluatingDecisionEffectivenessdeterminewhethertheproblemisresolved©JianjunZhangDecisionasaProcess:IncrementalDecisionProcessModelEmpiricalresearch:25decisionprocessesDecisionsequenceStimulus:opportunity,problem,crisisSolutions:given(ready-made),customizedIdentification:recognition,diagnosisDevelopment:search,screen,designSelection:judgmentevaluation-choice,analysisevaluation,bargainingevaluation-choiceAuthorizationContinuedDynamicfactors:--interrupts:suddeneventscausechangeinpaceordirection--schedulingdelays--feedbackdelays--timingdelaysandspeedups--comprehensivecycles--failurerecyclescontinuedModelsofstrategicdecisionprocess--simpleimpassedecisionprocesses--politicaldesigndecisionprocess--basicsearchdecisionprocesses--modifiedsearchdecisionprocesses--basicdesigndecisionprocesses--blockeddesigndecisionprocesses--dynamicdesigndecisionprocessesTheManagerAsDecisionMakerRationalDecisionMakingdecisionsareconsistent,value-maximizingchoiceswithinspecifiedconstraintsmanagersassumedtomakerationaldecisionsAssumptionsofRationality-decisionmakerwould:beobjectiveandlogicalcarefullydefineaproblemhaveaclearandspecificgoalselectthealternativethatmaximizesthelikelihoodofachievingthegoalmakedecisioninthefirm’’sbesteconomicinterestsmanagerialdecisionmakingseldommeetsallthetests©JianjunZhangAssumptionsOfRationalityRationalDecisionMakingProblemisclearandunambiguousSingle,well-definedgoalistobeachievedAllalternativesandconsequencesareknownPreferencesareclearPreferencesareconstantandstableNotimeorcostconstraintsexistFinalchoicewillmaximizepayoff©JianjunZhang有限限理理性性环境境复复杂杂，，模模糊糊、、不不一一致致信信息息；；不不完完备备、、不不对对称称信信息息人们们解解释释不不同同(经经历历经经验验、、身身份份角角色色、、利利益益，，等等））私有有利利益益（（组组织织作作为为政政治治联联合合体体））时间间压压力力注意意力力分分配配TheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TypesofProblemsandDecisionsWell-StructuredProblems-straightforward,familiar,andeasilydefinedProgrammedDecisions-usedtoaddressstructuredproblemsminimizetheneedformanagerstousediscretionfacilitateorganizationalefficiencyprocedure-seriesofinterrelatedsequentialstepsusedtorespondtoastructuredproblemrule-explicitstatementofwhattodoornottodopolicy-guidelinesorparametersfordecisionmaking©JianjunZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)TypesofProblemsandDecisions(cont.)Poorly-StructuredProblems-new,unusualproblemsforwhichinformationisambiguousorincompleteNonprogrammedDecisions-usedtoaddresspoorly-structuredproblemsproduceacustom-maderesponsemorefrequentamonghigher-levelmanagersfewdecisionsintherealworldareeitherfullyprogrammedornonprogrammed©JianjunZhangProgrammedversusnonprogrammeddecisionVariableTypeofDecision

ProgrammedNonprogrammedTypeoftaskSimple,routineComplex,creativeRelianceonorganizationalpoliciesConsiderableguidancefrompastdecisionsNoguidancefrompastdecisionsTypicaldecisionmakerLower-levelworkersUpper-levelsupervisorsTypesOfProblems,TypesOfDecisions,AndLevelInTheOrganizationProgrammedDecisionsNonprogrammedDecisionsLevelinOrganizationTopLowerWell-structuredIll-structuredTypeofProblem©JianjunZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingConditionsCertainty-outcomeofeveryalternativeisknownidealisticratherthanrealisticRisk-abletoestimatetheprobabilityofoutcomesstemmingfromeachalternativeexpectedvalue-theconditionalreturnfromeachpossibleoutcomemultiplyexpectedrevenuefromeachoutcomebytheprobabilityofeachoutcome©JianjunZhangExpectedValueforRevenuesfromtheAdditionofOneSkiLiftJianjunZhangTheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingConditions(cont.)Uncertainty-notcertainaboutoutcomesandunabletoestimateprobabilitiespsychologicalorientationofdecisionmakermaximaxchoice-optimisticmaximizingthemaximumpossiblepayoff（大中取大））maximinchoice-pessimisticmaximizingtheminimumpossiblepayoff（小中取大））minimax-minimizethemaximum““regret”（大中取小））©JianjunZhangPayoffMatrix©JianjunZhangRegretMatrix©JianjunZhangTheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)BoundedRationalitybehaverationallywithintheparametersofasimplifieddecision-makingprocessthatislimitedbyanindividual’sabilitytoprocessinformationsatisfice-acceptsolutionsthatare“goodenough””escalationofcommitment-increasedcommitmenttoapreviousdecisiondespiteevidencethatitmayhavebeenwrongrefusaltoadmitthattheinitialdecisionmayhavebeenflawed©JianjunZhangEscalationofCommitmentDecisiontoBeginaprojectactionNegativeresultsThreattoegoDecisiontopersistNegativeresultsThreattoegoSunkcostPressurefromOutsidepartiesDecisiontopersistSource:Staw,1976and1997TheManagerAsADecisionMaker(cont.)Decision-MakingStylestwodimensionsdefinetheapproachtodecisionmakingwayofthinking-differsfromrationaltointuitivetoleranceforambiguity-differsfromaneedforconsistencyandordertotheabilitytoprocessmanythoughtssimultaneouslydefinefourdecision-makingstylesDirective-fast,efficient,andlogicalAnalytic-carefulandabletoadaptorcopewithnewsituationsConceptual-abletofindcreativesolutionsBehavioral-seekacceptanceofdecisions©JianjunZhangDecision-MakingStylesAnalyticDirectiveBehavioralRationalIntuitiveWayofThinkingConceptualHighLowToleranceforAmbiguity©JianjunZhang常见的认知知陷阱锚定陷阱现状陷阱沉默成本陷陷阱可靠证据陷陷阱表述陷阱估计与预测测陷阱：过过于自信和和过于谨慎慎的陷阱，，易回顾性性事件陷阱阱锚定（定准准，支架））陷阱人口多少？？现状陷阱四轮马车第一辆汽车车现状陷阱舒服的现状状赖床与温水水青蛙——积重难返我们心灵深深处保护自自己的想法法张居正：：“一条鞭法”——拿鞭子鞭打打自己商鞅变法与与五马分尸尸沉没成本陷陷阱主要现象：：问题债权发发生时，大大多数以追追加贷款的的形式解决决问题不太采取撤撤收资金的的方法受到沉淀成成本的影响响，银行家家的判断经经常出现失失败解决方法：：在任何问题题出现前，，选出新的的银行家来来承担工作作必须选出对对这个决策策没有利害害关系的银银行家沉淀成本倾倾向对银行行业的影响响~可靠证据陷陷阱从两方面影影响从哪里怎么收集信息解释信息你看到了什什么？表述陷阱情境：你公司的三三艘货运船船昨天沉船船，每艘船船上有价值值20万的货物，，如若不能能在72小时内打捞捞，货物将将全部报废废。一家专专业从事海海上货物打打捞的公司司给你两种种不同描述述的选择方方案：从得与失表表述问题这套方案将会挽救你三艘货船中的一艘，即挽救你20万的货物.方案二

这套方案有三分之一的概率挽救你的三艘总计60万的货物；当然有三分之二的概率什么都挽救不了.方案一如果你是风风险规避型型，会选择择方案一。。实验中71%的人选择一一五、框架陷陷阱这套方案将会损失你三艘货船中的两艘，即损失你40万的货物这套方案有三分之二的概率损失你的三艘总计60万的货物；当然有三分之一的概率一点损失都没有.方案三.方案四如果你是风风险追求型型，会选择择方案四。。实验中80%的人选择四四从不同的参参考点构思思问题情境：你在银行有有2000元的存款，，有人问你你以下的问问题：：表述陷阱如果有这样一个机会，你有50%的概率损失300元，50%的概率赚得500元，你愿意吗？.方案二你是愿意自己银行户头里一直留有2000元钱呢，还是愿意尝试这样的机会，各有50的%的概率使你的银行存款变成1700元或2500元。.方案一实验中大部部分人选择择方案二卡内基模型型下的决策策过程不确定性信息有限管理者之间间持有不同的目目标、看法、价值值观及经验建立联盟联合讨论，，分享各种种看法，确定问问题的优先先顺序，获得对对该问题以以及解决方案的的社会性支支持搜寻简单搜寻，，采用已有有的程序解决问问题，必要要时创造解决决问题的方方案满意化决策策行为冲突比较群体和和个人决策策:三个臭皮匠匠顶的了诸诸葛亮吗？？复杂问题简单问题1.成员异质性性高2.成员互补性性高3.充分沟通4.好的意见能能够被采纳群体比个体好群体中的成成员都有正确的的答案吗？群体成员会会接受正确答答案吗？群体同最好的个人表现一样好好是群体不如最好的个人人否GroupVersusIndividualDecisionMakingCriteriaofEffectivenessGroupsIndividualsAccuracyxSpeedxCreativityxDegreeofacceptancexEfficiencyx群体决策的的优缺点优点：－－集思广广益－－互补－－开放－－有效性性－－稳妥性性和效率缺点－－反应慢慢－－团体偏偏移：妥协协结果可能能是保守或或冒险－－遵从压压力－－矛盾和和对抗民主与独裁裁各自的优势势开明专制的的要求：咨咨询式独裁裁东亚国家的的经验TherationalversusboundedrationalitymodelAssumptionsRationalModelBoundedRationalityModelRationalityofDecisionmakersPerfectrationalityBoundedrationalityInformationBasesofDecisionCompleteaccessNumbersandanalysisBoundedaccessIntuition,experienceSelectionofalternativesOptimalchoiceSatisfyingchoiceTypeofmodelNormativeDescriptive群体决策的的两种方式式Advocacy--辩护式本位主义不同利益方方的角力、、压制新的想想法、Inquiry--调查咨询式式产生多种选选择、鼓励意见交交换、得出多次检检验的结论论本质区别competingideasV.S.duelingdivisions见解本身力力量的竞争争还是不不同见解解持有人力力量的竞争争？两个决策例例子—猪湾入侵CIA从自己部门门利益出发发力主入侵侵决策过程程排除国国会拉美美专家参参与弱化风险险、有选选择的汇汇报信息息没有检验验可能的的变数两个决策策例子—古巴导弹弹危机自由讨论论两种方案案：封锁锁或者空空中打击击互相检验验对方方方案KENNEDY最终拍板板两个决策策例子—为何效果果不同？？相同的决决策参与与者，相相同的政政治环境境，相同同的重要要性，为为何结果果不同？？因为如如下五个个改变：：角色定位位：由不不同部门门代表者者变为好好怀疑的的通才（（skepticalgeneralists)组织者的的改变：：不仅组组织、拍拍板，更更要发现现问题（（intellectualwatchdog)平等化：：忘记现现有规则则、等级级差别分组：因因见解不不同分组组而不是是因利益益不同弱化领导导影响：：Kennedy缺席初期期讨论决策过程程从辩护护式变为为调查式式。如何何才能做做到呢？？有效制定定决策的的三个要要素—3CConstructiveconflict--建设性冲冲突Consideration--考虑/体谅Closure--终止一.建设性冲冲突两种类型型的冲突突►Cognitive:观念上的的、针对对工作有有不同看看法而产产生的冲冲突，健健康的、、有益的的，对Inquiry至关重要要►Affective:感情上的的，包括括个人摩摩擦、敌敌对，会会削减人人们的合合作热情情，让决决策过程程变得没没有效率率，是Advocacy的一种特特征一．建设设性冲突突►把辩论当当作常态态而不是是例外►形成两方方之间的的对话，，从而激激励辩论论一.建设性冲冲突：两两种方法法Point-CounterpointIntellectualWatchdog把团队分成两组;由A组提出一个计划,包括建议,关键假设,支持数据;由A组以书面和口头的形式提交给B组;把团队分成两组;由A组提出一个计划,包括建议,关键假设,支持数据;由A组以书面和口头的形式提交给B组由B组产生一个或多个备选的行动计划;两个组坐到一起来讨论这些计划,并寻求一致的一系列假设;在这些假设的基础上,两个组继续讨论各种可行性,并试图提出一致性的建议.由B组形成一个详细的批评建议,并用书面和口头的形式提交给A组;由A组针对这些反馈来修改其原来的计划;两个组周而复始的进行这种修改-批评-修改的环节,直至他们会聚于共同的焦点;两个组共同工作,提出一系列建议.二.考虑/体谅程序上的的公平—领导者做做最终决决策，但但必须要要让过程程中的参参与者认认为他们们的观点点已被考考虑到并并且影响响了最终终的决定定。如果参与与者相信信过程公公平，他他们会非非常乐意意执行这这个决定定，即使使他们的的观点并并没有被被真正的的采纳。。很多经理理人通过过“声音音”来体体现他们们的公平平：任何何人都有有机会表表达自己己的观点点。实际际上，这这种方式式并不如如Consideration来得重要要。二.考虑/体谅在整个决决策过程程中，领领导者都都要注重重“consideration”的重要性性。他们们决不能能让别人人认为已已经作出出了决定定，同时时在过程程初期也也不能随随意透露露自己对对决策的的个人喜喜好。在讨论过过程中，，决策者者必须作作出一副副积极倾倾听和关关注的姿姿态。在决策作作出之后后，决策策者还必必须设法法描述该该决策的的合理性性。而且且，还要要设法让让每一位位参与者者知道他他们的意意见如何何影响了了最终的的决策，，或者为为什么决决策有异异于他们们的建议议。三.终止知道何时时结束讨讨论非常常重要。。过早制定定决策和和过迟制制定决策策都非常常有害。。三.终止过早决策策正如“groupthink”,这种方式式随着strongadvocates的出现而而变得流流行。特特别是是在新团团队中，，成员仍仍在学习习组织的的规章，，从而不不想站出出来成为为一个反反对者。。►善于发发现潜在在不满：：可以暂暂时中断断讨论并并逐个鼓鼓励反对对者提出出他们的的观点，，然后重重新开始始。►鼓励少少数人的的观点：：虽然很很少被采采纳，但但这些观观点深化化和广化化了讨论论，拓宽宽了组织织的思路路。三.终止过迟决策策►两种表表现:敌对两方方都不肯肯屈服，，一遍遍遍的重申申他们的的观点。。由于缺缺乏制动动机制，，导致这这种讨论论无休无无止;人们静观观其变以以寻求公公平的参参与。团团队成员员坚持听听取每个个观点解解决每个个问题，，再得出出结论。。从而又又落入无无休止的的圈中。。►需要决决策者及及时找出出关键问问题。TheManagerAsDecisionMaker(cont.)RoleofIntuitionintuitivedecisionmaking-subconsciousprocessofmakingdecisionsonthebasisofexperienceandaccumulatedjudgmentdoesnotrelyonasystematicorthoroughanalysisoftheproblemgenerallycomplementsarationalanalysis©JianjunZhangWhatIsIntuition?DecisionsbasedonexperienceDecisionsbasedonfeelingsandemotions