罗宾斯管理学计划章节课件

“Amanwhodoesnotplanlongaheadwillfindtroubleathisdoor”Confucius6–1人无远虑必有近忧-孔子“AmanwhodoesnotplanlongPartII计划与决策

Planning&DecisionmakingFoundationsofplanning规划基础Planningtoolsandtechniques规划的方法Managers

asdecisionmakers决策Strategicmanagement战略7–2PartII计划与决策

Planning&DFoundationsofPlanning

规划/决策/计划工作Chapter

3FoundationsofPlanning

规划/决策/8–4Contents-

FoundationsofPlanningTheWhatandWhyofPlanningGoalsandPlansSettingGoalsandDevelopingPlansPlanningtoolsandtechniques8–4Contents-

FoundationsofPTheWhat

andWhyofPlanning

什么是规划为何需要规划8–5TheWhat

andWhyofPlanning1.1WhatIsPlanning?D

Planning

（计划工作，规划）Aprimarymanagerialactivitythatinvolves:Definingtheorganization’sgoalsEstablishinganoverallstrategiesforachievingthosegoalsDevelopingplansfororganizationalworkactivities.计划工作是确定目标、制定实现这些目标的总体战略，以及制定组织的工作计划等活动。Concernedwithbothendsandmeans8–61.1WhatIsPlanning?DPlannTypesofplanningInformal:

notwrittendown,short-termfocus;specifictoanorganizationalunit.Formal:

Informalplanning,specificgoalscoveringaperiodofyearsaredefined.Thesegoalsarewritten,specific,sharedwithorganizationalmemberstoreduceambiguityandcreateacommonunderstandingaboutwhatneedstobedone.Specificactionplans(howthegoalswillbereached.)Thetermplanninginthisbook,wedomeanformalplanning8–7Typesofplanning8–7Essentialsofplanning

规划的基本要素RobertKreitner:

Planningistheprocessofcopingwithuncertaintybyformulatingfuturecoursesofactiontoachievespecifiedresults.规划是为了应对未来不确定性取得特定目标而采取行动的过程。Theessentialsofplanninginclude:Organizationmission,组织使命Typesofplanning,规划类型Objectives(goals),目标Priorities,优先重点Planning/controlcycles规划周期Strategy战略8–8Essentialsofplanning

规划的基本要9、我们的市场行为主要的导向因素，第一个是市场需求的导向，第二个是技术进步的导向，第三大导向是竞争对手的行为导向。12月-2212月-22Monday,December19,202210、市场销售中最重要的字就是“问”。05:47:2305:47:2305:4712/19/20225:47:23AM11、现今，每个人都在谈论着创意，坦白讲，我害怕我们会假创意之名犯下一切过失。12月-2205:47:2305:47Dec-2219-Dec-2212、在购买时，你可以用任何语言；但在销售时，你必须使用购买者的语言。05:47:2305:47:2305:47Monday,December19,202213、Hewhoseizetherightmoment,istherightman.谁把握机遇，谁就心想事成。12月-2212月-2205:47:2305:47:23December19,202214、市场营销观念：目标市场，顾客需求，协调市场营销，通过满足消费者需求来创造利润。19十二月20225:47:23上午05:47:2312月-2215、我就像一个厨师，喜欢品尝食物。如果不好吃，我就不要它。十二月225:47上午12月-2205:47December19,202216、我总是站在顾客的角度看待即将推出的产品或服务，因为我就是顾客。2022/12/195:47:2305:47:2319December202217、利人为利已的根基，市场营销上老是为自己着想，而不顾及到他人，他人也不会顾及你。5:47:23上午5:47上午05:47:2312月-229、我们的市场行为主要的导向因素，第一个是市场需求的导向，第Mission–thestartpointofsettinggoalsMission（使命）:

astatementofthepurposeofanorganizationthefirm’sreasonforbeing公司存在的意义Albaba8–10Mission–thestartpointofsWell-writtenmissionstatementthatdoesthefollowingthings:DefinesyourorganizationforkeystakeholdersCreatesaninspiringvisionofwhattheorganizationcanbeandcandoOutlineshowthevisionistobeaccomplished(path)EstablisheskeyprioritiesStatesacommongoalandfostersasenseoftogethernessCreatesphilosophicalanchorforallorganizationaactivitiesGeneratesenthusiasmanda“cando”attidudeEmpowerspresentandfutureorganizationmemberstobelievethateveryindividualisthekeytosuccess8–11WellwrittenmissionstatmentWell-writtenmissionstatementStrategyStrategiesThedecisionsandactionsthatdeterminethelong-runperformanceofanorganization.

（Robbins,9e)战略是决定一个组织的长期绩效的决策和行动。Theplansforhowtheorganizationwilldowhateverit’sinbusinesstodo,howitwillcompetesuccessfully,andhowitwillattractandsatisfyitscustomersinordertoachieveitsgoals.（Bobbins.10-11e）战略是组织为了实现其目标的一些计划，包括从事何种业务，如何与其他组织竞争中获胜，如何吸引和满足顾客从而实现公司的目标。8–12StrategyStrategies8–12Goals(alsoObjectives，目标)Desiredoutcomesortargets.(forindividuals,groups,orentireorganizations)希望的结果Providedirectionandevaluationperformancecriteria8–13Goals(alsoObjectives，目标)8–13制定规划的基本内容之二5W1H8–14What-做什么？目标、内容Why(or/andForWhom)为何做？Who-谁去做？Where-何地做？When-何时做？How–如何做？制定规划的基本内容之二5W1H8–14What-做什么1.2WhyDoManagersPlanPurposesofPlanning:Providesdirection提供目标方向Reducesuncertainty减少不确定性Minimizeswasteandredundancy减少浪费Setsthegoalsorstandardsusedforcontrolling制定控制标准P2058–151.2WhyDoManagersPlanPurpo1.3PlanningandPerformanceTheRelationshipBetweenPlanningandPerformanceFormalplanningisassociatedwith:Higherprofitsandreturnsonassets.Positivefinancialresults.Thequalityofplanningandimplementationaffectsperformancemorethantheextentofplanning.Theexternalenvironmentcanreducetheimpactofplanningonperformance.Formalplanningmustbeusedforseveralyears(4yearsinthetextbook)beforeplanningbeginstoaffectperformance.高质量规划提升绩效，环境会降低规划的绩效，规划长期才能见效。8–161.3PlanningandPerformanceTh2.GoalsandPlans目标和计划8–172.GoalsandPlans目标和计划8–172.1TypesofGoalsD

Goals(alsoObjectives，目标)Desiredoutcomesortargets.(forindividuals,groups,orentireorganizations)Providedirectionandevaluationperformancecriteria8–182.1TypesofGoals8–18CriteriaforObjectives(goals)目标的标准Singularresult单个结果Specific具体Measurable可测量Targetdate截止日期Difficultbutachievable可现实性Attainable，AchievableAcceptanceandcommitment接受与承诺8–19CriteriaforObjectives(goals目标管理的SMART原则

Specific

Measurable

Attainable\Achievable

Relevant\Realistic\Result相关性（目标努力承诺）

Time-based8–20目标管理的SMART原则Specific8–20讨论：两个目标足协副主席：中国足球2050年将达世界最高水平上海大学：建设成为世界一流特色鲜明的综合性研究型大学。8–21讨论：两个目标足协副主席：中国足球2050年将达世界最高水平

CharacteristicsofWell-designedGoalsWrittenintermsofoutcomes,notactionsFocusesontheends,notthemeans.MeasurableandquantifiableSpecificallydefineshowtheoutcomeistobemeasuredandhowmuchisexpected.ClearastotimeframeHowlongbeforemeasuringaccomplishment.ChallengingyetattainableLowgoalsdonotmotivate.Highgoalsmotivateiftheycanbeachieved.WrittendownFocuses,defines,andmakesgoalsvisible.CommunicatedtoallnecessaryorganizationalmembersPutseverybody“onthesamepage.”Exhibit8–4 CharacteristicsofWell-DesignedGoalsp2108–22

CharacteristicsofWell-desig2.1TypesofGoalsOrganizationshavemanytypesofgoalsFinancialgoals<>Strategicgoals;

(2)Statedgoals<>Realgoals8–232.1TypesofGoalsOrganization2.1TypesofGoalsFinancialgoals<>Strategicgoals;FinancialGoals（财务目标）-绝对数值Arerelatedtotheexpectedinternalfinancialperformanceoftheorganization.Ex:McDonald’sfinancialgoalof3-5%averageannualsalesandrevenuegrowthStrategicGoals（战略目标）-相对数值Arerelatedtotheperformanceofthefirmrelativetofactorsinitsexternalenvironment(e.g.,competitors).Ex:Matchorbeattheperformanceofthecompetitiverivals8–242.1TypesofGoals8–24TypesofGoalsStatedGoalsversusRealGoalsStatedGoals（陈述目标）:

Officialstatementsofwhatanorganizationsays-andwhatitwantsitsvariousstakeholderstobelieve-itsgoalsare.Ex.UniversitiesareplacesofhigheducationRealGoals（实际目标）:

Goalsthatanorganizationactuallypursues,asdefinedbytheactionsofitsmembersEx.TheUniversitiesareresearchinstitutions,businesscompanies8–25TypesofGoalsStatedGoalsverD:

Plans

areDocumentsthatoutlinehowgoalsaregoingtobemet.

Includingresourcesallocation,schedules,andothernecessaryactionstoaccomplishthegoals.p2078–262.2TypesofPlans

D:PlansareDocumentsthatoExhibit8–1 FourTypesofPlans2.2TypesofPlansp2078–27Exhibit8–1 FourTypesofPlan8–283.SettingGoalsandDevelopingPlans制定目标与计划8–283.SettingGoalsandDevelWritingobjectivesmodel

制定目标的模型8–29Infinitive不定式Actionverb动词Singular,

specific，andmeasurableresulttobeachieved单一、具体、可测量、可取得的targetdate目标日期ExamplefromCoca-Cola:（1）To（2）increasesalesto(3)50%ofcarbonatedsoftdrinksintheU.S.(4)by2020(1)To(2)produce(3)10movies(4)by2117Writingobjectivesmodel

制定目制定目标的模型（中文）8–30助动词+【我们】要时间+在**期间内动词+**行动可测量可实现单一具体的+实现**目标我们要在2020年前确保公司销售收入年增长率超过10%。制定目标的模型（中文）8–30助动词8–313.1ApproachestoSettingGoals

传统的制定目标方法3.1.2TraditionalGoalSettingBroadgoalsaresetatthetopoftheorganization.Goalsarethenbrokenintosub-goalsforeachorganizationallevel.Assumesthattopmanagementknowsbestbecausetheycanseethe“bigpicture.”Goalsareintendedtodirect,guide,andconstrainfromabove.由上至下、总目标分解、上层把握全局、目标是上对下的指导限制8–313.1ApproachestoSettingEstablishingGoals(cont’d)MaintainingtheHierarchyofGoals维护目标的等级Means–EndsChain（手段-目的链）Theintegratednetworkofgoalsthatresultsfromestablishingaclearly-definedhierarchyoforganizationalgoals.Achievementoflower-levelgoalsisthemeansbywhichtoreachhigher-levelgoals(ends).8–32EstablishingGoals(cont’d)Ma8–333.1ApproachestoSettingGoalsAmbiguousgoalsleadtomissinterpretationsandwrongdirection模糊的目标会导致偏差Goalsloseclarityandfocusaslower-levelmanagersattempttointerpretanddefinethegoalsfortheirareasofresponsibility.8–333.1ApproachestoSettingExhibit8–2 TheDownsideofTraditionalGoalSettingp2098–34Exhibit8–2 TheDownsideofTr3.1.1StepsinGoalSettingReviewtheorganization’smissionstatement.Dogoalsreflectthemission?Evaluateavailableresources.Areresourcessufficienttoaccomplishthemission?Determinegoalsindividuallyorwithothers.Aregoalsspecific,measurable,andtimely?Writedownthegoalsandcommunicatethemtoallwhoneedtoknow.Iseverybodyonthesamepage?Reviewresultsandwhethergoalsarebeingmet.Whatchangesareneededinmission,resources,orgoals?8–353.1ApproachestoSettingGoals

制定目标的方法3.1.1StepsinGoalSettingR制定目标的方法图示8–36制定目标的方法图示8–36EstablishingGoals(cont’d)3.1.3ManagementByObjectives(MBO)

目标管理Specificperformancegoalsarejointlydeterminedbyemployeesandmanagers.Progresstowardaccomplishinggoalsisperiodicallyreviewed.Rewardsareallocatedonthebasisofprogresstowardsthegoals.4KeyelementsofMBO:Goalspecificity,participativedecisionmaking,anexplicitperformance/evaluationperiod,feedback8–37EstablishingGoals(cont’d)3.1Exhibit8–3 StepsinaTypicalMBOProgramTheorganization’soverallobjectivesandstrategiesareformulated.Majorobjectivesareallocatedamongdivisionalanddepartmentalunits.Unitmanagerscollaborativelysetspecificobjectivesfortheirunitswiththeirmanagers.Specificobjectivesarecollaborativelysetwithalldepartmentmembers.Actionplans,defininghowobjectivesaretobeachieved,arespecifiedandagreeduponbymanagersandemployees.Theactionplansareimplemented.Progresstowardobjectivesisperiodicallyreviewed,andfeedbackisprovided.Successfulachievementofobjectivesisreinforcedbyperformance-basedrewards.p2108–38Exhibit8–3 StepsinDoesMBOWork?Yes!Increaseemployeeperformanceandorganizationalproductivity.ReasonsforMBOSuccessTopmanagementcommitmentandinvolvement.EffectivewayofmotivatingemployeesPotentialProblemswithMBOProgramsNotaseffectiveindynamicenvironmentsthatrequireconstantresettingofgoals.Overemphasisonindividualaccomplishmentmaycreateproblemswithteamwork.AllowingtheMBOprogramtobecomeanannualpaperworkshuffle.8–39DoesMBOWork?Yes!8–393.2DevelopingPlansThreeContingencyFactorsinPlanning计划工作的权变因素1(1)Manager’slevelintheorganizationStrategicplansathigherlevelsOperationalplansatlowerlevels8–403.2DevelopingPlansThreeConExhibit8–5 PlanningintheHierarchyofOrganizations8–41Exhibit8–5 PlanningintheHi3.2DevelopingPlansContingencyFactorsinPlanning计划工作的权变因素2(2)DegreeofenvironmentaluncertaintyStableenvironment:specificplansDynamicenvironment:specificbutflexibleplansEx:continentalairlines,ontimeserviceplans(destinationnotaflightplan)8–423.2DevelopingPlansContingen3.2DevelopingPlansContingencyFactorsinPlanning计划工作的权变因素3(3)Time-LengthoffuturecommitmentsCommitmentConcept承诺概念:plansshouldextendfarenoughtomeetthosecommitmentsmadewhentheplansweredeveloped.Planningfortoolongortooshortperiodisinefficientandineffective.8–433.2DevelopingPlansContingen3.3ApproachestoPlanning(1)ThetraditionalapproachtoplanningEstablishingaformalplanningdepartmentAgroupofplanningspecialistswhohelpmanagerswriteorganizationalplans.AdvantagesThorough,systematic,coordinated,Disadvantagesfocusondeveloping“theplan”8–443.3ApproachestoPlanning(1)3.3ApproachestoPlanning(2)TheinvolvedapproachofplanningInvolvingorganizationalmembersintheprocessPlansaredevelopedbymembersoforganizationalunitsatvariouslevelsandthencoordinatedwithotherunitsacrosstheorganization.Plansaremorethanwrittenthingsonpapers,theycanbeusedindirectingandcoordinatingworkExample:Dell,workteamsettheirownplans,and“recovery”plans8–453.3ApproachestoPlanning(2)3.4PrioritiesDefinedasarankingofgoals,objectives,oractivitiesinorderofimportance,prioritiesplayaspecialroleinplanning计划中的优先排序8–463.4PrioritiesDefinedasaran(1)TheA-B-CprioritysystemA:“Mustdo”objectivescriticaltosuccessfulperformance.B:“Shoulddo”-objectivenecessaryforimprovedperformance.C:“Nicedo”-Objectivedesirableforimprovedperformance,butnotcriticaltosurvivalorimprovedperformance8–47(1)TheA-B-Cprioritysystem8(2)The80/20principle(Pareto帕累托）

The80/20principleassertsthataminorityofcauses,inputs,oreffortusuallyleadstoamajorityoftheresults,outputs,orrewards少数的因素投入或者努力能够带来多数的结果产出和报酬Example:Top20%ofthecustomersatatypicalcommercialbankgenerateuptosixtimesasmuchrevenueastheycost,whilethebottom20%costthreetofourtimesmorethantheymakeforthecompany.Practice:Managerscanleveragetheirtimebyfocusingonthefewpeople,problems,oropportunitieswiththegreatestimpact8–48(2)The80/20principle(Paret8–498–49目标管理循环Step1设定目标Step2制定行动规划Step3定期审查Step4绩效评估8–50目标管理循环Step1设定目标Step2制定行动规划StB–51Contents4.1TechniquesforAssessingtheEnvironment4.2TechniquesforAllocatingResources4.3ContemporaryPlanningTechniques4.PlanningToolsandTechniquesB–51Contents4.1TechniquesforB–524.1Techniquesfor

AssessingtheEnvironment

EnvironmentscanningForecastingBenchmarkingB–524.1Techniquesfor

AssessB–534.1.1EnvironmentalScanning

EnvironmentalScanning环境扫描D

Thescreeningoflargeamountsofinformationtoanticipateandinterpretchangeintheenvironment.B–534.1.1EnvironmentalScanniB–544.1.1EnvironmentalScanningCompetitorIntelligence竞争对手调查

Theprocessofgatheringinformationaboutcompetitors—whotheyare;whattheyaredoing;Howwillwhatthey’redoingaffectus?Isnotspyingbutrathercarefulattentiontoreadilyaccessibleinformationfromemployees,customers,suppliers,theInternet,andcompetitorsthemselves.Mayinvolvereverseengineering

ofcompetingproductstodiscovertechnicalinnovations.B–544.1.1EnvironmentalScanniB–55GlobalScanningGlobalScanning全球扫描Screeningabroadscopeofinformationonglobalforcesthatmightaffecttheorganization.Hasvaluetofirmswithsignificantglobalinterests.Drawsinformationfromsourcesthatprovideglobalperspectivesonworld-wideissuesandopportunities.B–55GlobalScanningWorldBankIMFOECDCIAfactbook……8–56WorldBank8–56B–574.1.2ForecastingD-Forecasting预测Thepartoforganizationalplanningthatinvolvescreatingpredictionsofoutcomesbasedoninformationgatheredbyenvironmentalscanning.Facilitatesmanagerial

decisionmaking.Ismostaccuratein

stableenvironments.B–574.1.2ForecastingD-ForecB–58AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)

ForecastingTechniquesQuantitativeforecasting定量预测Qualitativeforecasting定性预测B–58AssessingtheEnvironmentB–59AssessingtheEnvironment(cont’d)

ForecastingTechniquesQuantitativeforecasting定量预测Applyingasetofmathematicalrulestoaseriesofharddatatopredictoutcomes(e.g.,unitstobeproduced).QuantitativeTimeseriesanalysisRegressionmodelsEconometricmodelsEconomicindicatorsSubstitutioneffectB–59AssessingtheEnvironmentB–60ExhibitB–1 ForecastingTechniquesQualitativeforecasting定性预测Usingexpertjudgmentsandopinionstopredictlessthanpreciseoutcomes(e.g.,directionoftheeconomy).QualitativeJuryofopinion评审小组意见Salesforcecomposition销售构成Customerevaluation顾客评价P250B–60ExhibitB–1 ForecastingTeB–61

MakingForecastingMoreEffectiveUseforecastingtechniquesinstableenvironmentsUsesimpleforecastingmethods.Compareeachforecastwithitscorresponding“nochange”forecast.Don’trelyonasingleforecastingmethod.Don’tassumethattheturningpointsinatrendcanbeaccuratelyidentified.Shortenthetimeperiodcoveredbyaforecast.Rememberthatforecastingisadevelopedmanagerialskillthatsupportsdecisionmaking.p251B–61MakingForecastingMoreEB–624.1.3BenchmarkingThesearchforthebestpracticesamongcompetitorsandnoncompetitorsthatleadtotheirsuperiorperformance.Byanalyzingandcopyingthesepractices,firmscanimprovetheirperformance.Sales-69%upProductivity45%upB–624.1.3BenchmarkingThesearB–63ExhibitB–2 StepsinBenchmarking标杆比较的步骤Source:BasedonY.K.Shetty,“AimingHigh:CompetitiveBenchmarkingforSuperiorPerformance,”LongRangePlanning.February1993,p.42.P252B–63ExhibitB–2 StepsinBenchB–644.2.TechniquesforAllocatingResourcesBudgetingSchedulingBreakevenAnalysisLinearProgrammingB–644.2.TechniquesforB–65ResourcesDTheassetsoftheorganizationincludingfinancial,physical,human,andintangibleTypesofResourcesTheassetsoftheorganizationFinancial:debt,equity,andretainedearningsPhysical:buildings,equipment,andrawmaterialsHuman:experiences,skills,knowledge,andcompetenciesIntangible:brandnames,patents,reputation,trademarks,copyrights,anddatabasesB–65ResourcesDTheassetsoftB–66AllocatingResources:

4.2.1BudgetingDBudgetAplanforallocatingresources(e.g.,revenues,expenses,andcapitalexpenditures)tospecificactivities.Isusedtoimprovetime,space,anduseofmaterialresources.Isthemostcommonlyused

andmostwidelyapplicable

planningtechniquefor

organizations.p252B–66AllocatingResources:

4.2B–67ExhibitB–3 TypesofBudgetsSource:BasedonR.S.RussellandB.W.TaylorIII.ProductionandOperationsManagement(UpperSaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHall,1995),p.287.P252B–67ExhibitB–3 TypesofBudgeB–68ExhibitB–4 SuggestionsforImprovingBudgetingCollaborateandcommunicate.Beflexible.Goalsshoulddrivebudgets—budgetsshouldnotdeterminegoals.Coordinatebudgetingthroughouttheorganization.Usebudgeting/planningsoftwarewhenappropriate.Rememberthatbudgetsaretools.Rememberthatprofitsresultfromsmartmanagement,notbecauseyoubudgetedforthem.P253B–68ExhibitB–4 SuggestionsfoB–69AllocatingResources:

4.2.2SchedulingD

Schedules

（排程）Plansthatallocateresourcesbydetailingwhatactivitieshavetobedone,theorderinwhichtheyaretobecompleted,whoistodoeach,andwhentheyaretobecompleted.Representthecoordinationofvariousactivities.B–69AllocatingResources:

4.2B–70AllocatingResources:ChartingGanttChart（甘特图）Agraphical

schedulingtechniquedevelopedbyHenry.L.Ganttinthe1880s-90sforproductionoperationAbargraphwithtimeonthehorizontalaxisandactivitiestobeaccomplishedontheverticalaxis.Showstheexpectedandactualprogressofvarioustasks.B–70AllocatingResources:ChartB–71ExhibitB–5 AGanttChart甘特图P253B–71ExhibitB–5 AGanttChartB–72AllocatingResources:

LoadChart（负荷图）AmodifiedGanttchartthatlistsentiredepartmentsorspecificresourcesontheverticalaxis.Allowsmanagerstoplanandcontrolcapacityutilization.ChartingB–72AllocatingResources:LoB–73ExhibitB–6 ALoadChart负荷图P254B–73ExhibitB–6 ALoadChart负B–74AllocatingResources:AnalysisProgramEvaluationandReviewTechnique(PERT)orPERTnetworkanalysisPERT网络分析Aflowchartdiagramthatdepictsthesequenceofactivitiesneededtocompleteaprojectandthetimeorcostsassociatedwitheachactivity.PERT是一种流程图型，表述了项目活动的顺序和时间，有时加入了相应的成本数据。B–74AllocatingResources:AnalB–75ExhibitB–9 AVisualPERTNetworkforConstructinganOfficeBuildingP256B–75ExhibitB–9 AVisualPERTB–76AllocatingResources:AnalysisProgramEvaluationandReviewTechnique(PERT)PERT网络分析4概念Events事件:endpointsforcompletionofmajoractivitiesinaPERTnetwork.Activities活动:time/resourcesrequiredtoprogressfromoneeventtoanotherinaPERTnetwork.Criticalpath关键路径:themosttime-consumingchainofactivitiesandeventsinaPERTnetwork.(apathofactivitiesthatallowsalltaskstobecompletedwiththeleastslacktime.)Slacktime松弛时间:theamountoftimeanindividualactivitycanbedelayedwithoutdelayingthewholeproject.B–76AllocatingResources:AnalB–77ExhibitB–7 StepsinDevelopingaPERTNetworkIdentifyeverysignificantactivitythatmustbeachievedforaprojecttobecompleted.Determinetheorderinwhichtheseeventsmustbecompleted.Diagramtheflowofactivitiesfromstarttofinish,identifyingeachactivityanditsrelationshiptoallotheractivities.Computeatimeestimateforcompletingeachactivity.Usingthenetworkdiagramthatcontainstimeestimatesforeachactivity,determineascheduleforthestartandfinishdatesofeachactivityandfortheentireproject.P255B–77ExhibitB–7 StepsinDevelB–78ExhibitB–8 EventsandActivitiesinConstructinganOfficeBuildingP255B–78ExhibitB–8 EventsandActB–79ExhibitB–9 AVisualPERTNetworkforConstructinganOfficeBuildingCriticalPath:A-B-C-D-G-H-J-KP256Slacktime:

(CDG)-（CEG）=3days;DGHJ-DIJ=6daysB–79ExhibitB–9 AVisualPERTB–804.2.3BreakevenAnalysis

BreakevenAnalysis盈亏平衡分析Isusedtodeterminethepointatwhichallfixedcostshavebeenrecoveredandprofitabilitybegins.Fixedcost(FC)Variablecosts(VC)TotalFixedCosts(TFC)Price(P)TheBreak-evenFormula:B–804.2.3BreakevenAnalysisBB–81ExhibitB–10 BreakevenAnalysisPhotocopyingserviceshop$0.1perphotocopy$0.04percopyvariablecost$27,000fixedcost450Thousandcopiesor45thousandUSDP256B–81ExhibitB–10 BreakevenAnaB–824.2.4LinearProgramming

LinearProgrammingAtechniquethatseekstosolveresourceallocationproblemsusingtheproportionalrelationshipsbetweentwovariables.用两种变量之间的比例关系来解决资源分配问题的技术P257B–824.2.4LinearProgrammingLB–83ExhibitB–11 ProductionDataforCinnamon-ScentedProductsMaximumprofit=$10P+$18SP,isnumberofbagsofpotpourriproducedS,isthenumberofscentedcandlesproducedP2572P+4S≤12002P+2S≤900B–83ExhibitB–11 ProductionDaB–84ExhibitB–12

GraphicalSolutiontoLinearProgrammingProblemMax.AssemblyMax.ManufacturingMax.ManufacturingMax.AssemblyMax.Profits300*18=5400$450*10=4500$300*10+150*18=5700$P258略C：150scentedcandles300potpourribagsB–84ExhibitB–12

GraphicalSoB–854.3.ContemporaryPlanningTechniquesB–854.3.ContemporaryPlanningB–864.3.1ProjectManagement项目管理ProjectAone-time-onlysetofactivitiesthathasadefinitebeginningandendingpointtime.有明确的开始和结束时间的一次性一组活动。ProjectManagementThetaskofgettingaproject’sactivitiesdoneontime,withinbudget,andaccordingtospecifications.DefineprojectgoalsIdentifyallrequiredactivities,materials,andlaborDeterminethesequenceofcompletionB–864.3.1ProjectManagement项B–87ExhibitB–13 ProjectPlanningProcessSource:BasedonR.S.RussellandB.W.TaylorIII,ProductionandOperationsManagement(UpperSaddleRiver,NJ:PrenticeHall,1995),p.287.P259B–87ExhibitB–13 ProjectPlannB–884.3.2ScenarioPlanning脚本规划Scenario（脚本）Aconsistentviewofwhatthefutureislikelytobe.ScenarioPlanning（脚本计划）Anattemptnottrytopredictthefuturebuttoreduceuncertaintybyplayingoutpotentialsituationsunderdifferentspecifiedconditions.ContingencyPlanning(情形预案）Developingscenariosthatallowmanagersdetermineinadvancewhattheiractionsshouldbeshouldaconsideredeventactuallyoccur.B–884.3.2ScenarioPlanning脚B–89ExhibitB–14 PreparingforUnexpectedEventsIdentifypotentialunexpectedevents.Determineifanyoftheseeventswouldhaveearlyindicators.Setupaninformationgatheringsystemtoidentifyearlyindicators.Haveappropriateresponses(plans)inplaceiftheseunexpectedeventsoccur.Source:S.Caudron,“FrontviewMirror,”BusinessFinance,December1999,pp.24–30.PB–89ExhibitB–14 PreparingforTimeManagement时间管理8–90时间管理的三个要点1.诊断你的时间使用情况2.建立时间管理系统3.提高时间管理技巧TimeManagement时间管理8–90时间管理的三1.时间诊断8–91Excel表记录每天15分钟至30分钟的时间使用情况1.时间诊断8–91Excel表记录每天15分钟至30分钟2.时间管理系统8–92时间系统的内容Priorities重点优先事项Objectives目标Plans计划Schedules日程安排2.时间管理系统8–92时间系统的内容8–938–938–948–948–958–958–968–968–978–978–988–988–998–993.时间管理的技巧8–1003.时间管理的技巧8–1008–1018–101B–102LearningSummary

WhatTechniquesCanManagesUsetoAssesstheEnvironment?

Environmentalscanning:CompetitorintelligenceGlobalscanningForecastingQuantitativeandqualitativeforecastingMostaccuratewhenenvironmentisnotchangingrapidly,orepeopleareinvolvedintheprocess,rollingforecastsareused,morethanonetypeofforecastisused.Benchmarking:SearchingforthebestpracticesofothercompaniesthatleadtotheirsuperiorperformanceB–102LearningSummary

WhatTecB–103LearningSummaryWhatTechniquesCanManagersUsetoAllocateResources?BudgetSchedulingBreakevenanalysisLinearprogrammingB–103LearningSummaryWhatTechB–104Le