浅析金融时报选文

114/115金融时报选文SURGEINBIOFUELSPUSHESUPFOODPRICES 1生物燃料与人类争食 2ASIANPRAGMATISMPROVESITSVALUE 3香港退休基金是如何样运作的 4Q&AONASADLYPREDICTABLEDEBTCRISIS 6全球次贷危机七大问题 8GLOBALISATION'SEXILESKEEPTHEHOMEFIRESBURNING 9移民汇款养活进展中国家？ 11SURGEINBIOFUELSPUSHESUPFOODPRICESByJavierBlasandJennyWigginsinLondonTuesday,July17,2007Asurgeintheproductionofbiofuelsderivedfromcorn,wheatandsoyabeansishelpingtopushupfoodpricessosharplythattheWorldFoodProgramme,theUnitedNation'sagencyinchargeoffightingfamine,isfindingitdifficulttofeedasmanyhungrypeopleasithasinthepast.JosetteSheeran,WFP'sexecutivedirector,saidinaninterviewwiththeFinancialTimesthatrisingfoodpriceswere“alreadyhavinganimpactonWFPoperations”andadded:“Thereisarealisationwearefacinganewlevelofchallenge.”FoodcommoditypricesaresurgingbecauseofanumberoffactorsincludingrisingdemandfromChinaandbadweather,butthepotentialconsequencesoftherisingdemandforbiofuelshascaughttheattentionofthoseinthebusinessoffeedingtheworld.MarkSpelman,headoftheAccenture'sglobalenergypractice,saidthebiofuelindustrywasatriskofcreatingapublicbacklashsimilartowindpowergenerationasfoodinflationcontinues.“Windpowerwasaverypopularrenewablesourceofenergyuntilawind-farmwasplannedinsomeone'sbackyard,”hesaid.Still,PaulO'Brien,overseasdirectorforthehumanitarianorganisationConcernWorldwide,saidhigherfoodpricescouldbenefitfarmersinemergingmarketsiffoodaidprogrammesfinditcheapertospendcashdonationsinthecountriestheydistributefoodin,ratherthanintheUSandEurope.“Whatwewouldencourageis[foodaidagencies]tolookmorelocally...andfordonorstogivemoneytotheWFP,”MrO'Briensaid.Some77percentoftheWFP'sfoodpurchasesaremadeindevelopingcountries.Lastyearitspent$460m(�34m,£226m)insuchcountries,makingthelargestcashpurchasesinUganda,EthiopiaandPakistan.TheUnitedNationsorganisationfeedssome90mpeopleannually.MsSheeranalsosaidthatherorganisationandothersweretryingtomakeiteasierforpoorerfarmerstobenefitfromrisingdemandforfood,eitherbyhelpingAfricanfarmersbecomemoreefficientandtappingnewmarketsorbyhelpingsmallfarmersinLatinAmericabenefitfromtherisingdemandforbiofuels.“Inaworldofgrowingpopulation,theAfricanfarmerwillbeneeded,”shesaid.TheriseinfoodpriceshasalsounderlinedthedifficultiestheWFPandotherfoodaidprogrammesfacewhendeterminingwhichtypeofdonationstheyreceivearemoreeffective–cashorcommodities.AbouthalfofthedonationstheWFPreceivesarenowmadeincash,therestincommodities.Whentheorganisationstarted,itbenefitedmainlyfromsurplusfooddonatedbywealthynationsincludingtheUS.Itnowreceivescashfrommanycountries,andoften,asisthecasewithUS,mustspendthatmoneyonproductsgrowninthedonorcountry.MarcCohen,researchfellowattheUS'sInternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute,saidthattheriseinfoodpriceshadreawakenedquestionsoverthebestwaytodistributefoodaid.Oneideathathasbeendiscussedinthepast,MrCohensaid,isfordonorstocontributetoaglobalreserveorco-ordinatednationalreservesoffoodsothatfoodcanbestockpiled.“Nowthatpricesarehigh,theideamaygetonthetableagain,”hesaid.生物燃料与人类争食作者：英国《金融时报》哈维尔•布拉斯(JavierBlas)、珍妮•威金斯(JennyWiggins)伦敦报道2007年7月17日星期二从玉米、小麦和大豆中提取生物燃料的生产活动大幅增长，大幅推升了食品价格，导致世界粮食打算署(WorldFoodProgramme)发觉自己难以向与过去同样多的饥饿人口提供粮食。世界粮食打算署是联合国(UN)抗击饥饿的主管机构。世界粮食打算署执行干事约塞特•施林(JosetteSheeran)在同意英国《金融时报》采访时表示，不断上涨的粮食价格“差不多对世界粮食打算署的运作造成了阻碍”，并补充称：“我们认识到，我们正在面临新层次的挑战。”粮食类大宗商品价格的飙升，是由许多因素造成的，其中包括中国需求的不断上升和恶劣的气候等，但生物燃料需求上升的潜在后果，已引起了世界粮食界相关人士的关注。埃森哲(Accenture)全球能源业务负责人马克•斯佩尔曼(MarkSpelman)表示，随着粮食价格的接着攀升，生物燃料行业有可能像风力发电一样，激起公众的强烈反对。他表示：“风力曾是一种特不受欢迎的可再生能源，然而，到有人打算在自己的后院建设风力发电场时，情况就改变了。”尽管如此，人道主义组织关爱世界(ConcernWorldwide)海外事务负责人保罗•欧布莱恩(PaulO'Brien)表示，假如各粮食援助机构发觉，将捐赠的现金花在它们援助粮食的国家，比花在欧美更廉价，那么粮价的上涨可能会使新兴市场的农民受益。欧布莱恩表示：“我们将鼓舞（粮食援助机构）更多地着眼于本地……并鼓舞捐赠者把钞票交给世界粮食打算署。”在世界粮食打算署购买的粮食中，大约有77%产自进展中国家。去年，该机构在这些国家花费了4.6亿美元，最大金额的现金购买发生在乌干达、埃塞俄比亚和巴基斯坦。那个联合国机构每年为大约9000万人提供粮食。施林还表示，她所在的机构和其它组织正努力让较为贫穷的农民更容易从粮食需求增长中获益，方法是以下两种方法中的一种：一是关心非洲农民提高效率，开发新市场；二是关心拉美小农从生物燃料需求的增长中获益。她表示：“一个人口不断增长的世界，将会需要非洲农民。”粮食价格的上涨，还突显出世界粮食打算署和其它粮食援助机构在要推断哪类捐赠更有效时面临的难题：是同意现金，依旧大宗商品。目前，在世界粮食打算署收到的捐赠中，大约有一半是现金，另一半是大宗商品。在创立之初，该组织要紧受益于包括美国在内的富国所捐赠的剩余粮食。现在，该组织从许多国家收到的是现金，而且往往就像在美国一样，必须把这些资金用于购买捐赠国生产的产品。美国国际粮食政策研究所(InternationalFoodPolicyResearchInstitute)研究员马克•科恩(MarcCohen)表示，粮食价格高企再度提出了有关粮食援助最佳分配方式的问题。科恩表示，过去曾讨论过一种方法，即捐赠者向一个全球性储备机构，或协调一致的国家粮食储备机构进行捐赠，如此粮食就能够被储存起来。他表示：“既然目前价格高企，那个方法可能再度提上议程。”译者/何黎ASIANPRAGMATISMPROVESITSVALUEByMarkKonynTuesday,September11,2007InrecentmonthsthefocusofattentioninHongKonghasbeenontheaccessibilityofHongKong-registeredmutualfundstomainlandChinainvestorsundertheQualifiedDomesticInstitutionalInvestor(QDII)system.Sofar,twolargemainlandbankshaveannouncedarrangementswithkeyfundmanagementgroupsthatintendtolaunchproductstotakeadvantageofthisliberalisationofChina'sdomesticsavings.ThisdevelopmentpromisestoreigniteinterestinHongKong'smutualfundindustrythatwouldotherwisefallbehindintheprioritylistwhencomparedwithdevelopmentselsewhereintheregion-Taiwan,Korea,ChinaandevenJapanareattractingmoreattention.AttemptsinHongKongtomakeiteasierforinternationalandestablishedhedgefundgroupstosetupofficesisaclearindicationthatHongKongisconsciousoftheneedtostaycompetitiveandattracttalent.AllofthisindustryexcitementhasovershadoweddevelopmentsinHongKong'sretirementfundmarketplace.BeforetheMandatoryProvidentFund(MPF)schemewasintroducedattheendof2000,itwasestimatedthatonlyathirdofthecity'sworkforcewasenrolledinsomeformofretirementsavingsplan.Arguably,thebiggestsinglesuccessoftheMPFhasbeenthecompliancelevel.Enrolmentratesforemployersareat99percent,and75percentfortheself-employed,bringingthenumberofworkersenrolledtoover2m.ThegrowthinassetsheldinMPFschemeshasalsobeenimpressive,withmorethan$27bn(�9.7bn,£13bn)nowheldinMPFaccounts.Atthetimeofintroductiontherewasmuchdebateonthelevelofchoicetobeofferedtomembers.MPFisadefinedcontributionsystemwherememberschoosetheirinvestmentstrategyfromarangeoffundsavailableundertheircurrentplan.Theoverridingconcernattheoutsetofensuringthatmostoftheworkingpopulationenrolledintheschemeresultedinthekeyresponsibilityforcomplianceresidingwiththeemployer,andthisapproachhasbeensuccessful.Atthesametimethisstructurehaslimitedfundchoicetothosemadeavailablebytheemployers'chosenserviceprovider.Sevenyearssincethelaunchandmembersarebecomingincreasinglyawarethatotherfundsexistoutsideoftheirownschemethatmayofferabetterperformanceprofile.ThemaininvestmentformostMPFmembershasbeenmulti-assetfundsthatdiversifygloballyinbothequitiesandbonds,andaccountformorethanhalfofthescheme'stotalassets.Bondfundshavebeenremarkablyunpopular,withlessthan2percentofthetotalassets,withequityfundsrepresentingmorethan20percent.Membershavebecomemoreawareofperformanceacrossserviceprovidersasaresultofincreasedjobmobilitysincetheeconomyrecoveredfromitslowpointinmid2003.Memberschangingjobscantransfertheassetstotheschemeofthenewemployer,remainintheschemeoftheexistingemployerorset-upapreservedaccountwiththeprovideroftheirchoice.Preservedaccountshavebecomethehuntinggroundfornewbusinessformanyserviceproviders.Uptoanestimated20percentofschemeassetsarenowheldinpreservedaccountsforsomeserviceproviders.MovementsintheseassetsasaresultofmembersexercisingtheirchoicewillslowlytransformtheMPFfrombeinganemployer-basedschemetoanindividuallyadministeredsystemwhereemployeesareabletochoosefromawiderrangeoffundsavailableinthemarket.However,thisdevelopmentmayprovetooslowformemberswhodonotchangejobsthatoften,oritmaysimplyprovetooclumsyandinconvenienttooperate.Hencethereisgrowingdebateonwhetherallmembersshouldhavegreaterchoiceandbeabletoperiodicallymoveassetstoanyfundavailableinthemarketplace.Thefocusonperformancecomparisonsisparticularlypertinentwhenconsideredalongsidethedebateonserviceproviders'feesthataretypicallyintherangeof1.5-2percenteachyear.Thoseschemesthatlaginrespectofperformancewillincreasinglyfinditdifficulttojustifythetotalfees.ThechoicedebateinHongKongcontrastsgreatlywithdevelopmentsintheUS.DuringtheconsultationperiodaheadoftheMPFlaunchtherewasmuchreferencetothesuccessesofthe401Ksystemandthefactthatchoicewasprolificandwide.However,experiencesuggeststhattheMPF,withitslimitedchoiceattheoutset,settherighttoneandisnowreadytoembracegreaterchoice.Morerecently,therehasbeenaspateofclassactionsagainstfiduciariesintheUS,resultinginmanyschemesadoptingdefaultoptionsthatplacecontributionsinmulti-assetfundsandeffectivelytakethestrategyandfundchoicedecisionsawayfromtheemployee.PerhapsthisisanexampleofhowAsianpragmatismproducesamoreeffectiveandprogressiveoutcome.MarkKonynischiefexecutiveofRCMAsiaPacificinHongKong香港退休基金是如何样运作的作者：康礼贤(MarkKonyn)为英国《金融时报》撰稿2007年9月11日星期二在香港，人们近几个月来的关注焦点是在港注册的共同基金能否在合格境内机构投资者(QDII)机制下，招徕中国内地投资者。到目前为止，两家大型内地银行差不多宣布与要紧基金治理集团签署了业务安排，这些基金治理集团希望利用中国放宽国内储蓄投资渠道的机会推出相应产品。这一新进展有望重新燃起外界对香港共同基金行业的兴趣，否则与该地区其它地点相比，进展共同基金在香港的优先程度将降低——台湾、韩国、中国甚至日本在这方面的表现都吸引了人们更多的注意。香港试图降低跨国知名对冲基金集团在其境内设立办事处的难度。此举显然表明，香港明白需要保持竞争力，并吸引人才。与共同基金业的活跃相比，香港退休基金市场的进展不那么引人瞩目。在2000年底推出强制性公积金打算(MPF)之前，香港约仅有三分之一的劳动人口参加了某种形式的退休储蓄打算。能够讲，MPF最成功的一点，便是该打算的普及水平。到目前为止，99%的雇主加入了该打算，而个体经营者的参与比例为75%，从而使加入该打算的工人数量超过200万人。MPF打算所持资产的增速也十分惊人，目前其账户中的资产超过了270亿美元。在推出该打算时，关于它能够向参加者提供多少投资选择，人们存在专门多争论。MPF是一个固定缴款打算，参加者从其打算提供的基金品种中选择其投资策略。最初，人们最关注的问题是确保多数劳动者加入该打算，这使得参加该打算的要紧责任落在了雇主身上。这种做法比较成功。与此同时，该结构将参与者能够选择的基金品种，限制在雇主选择的基金治理公司所提供的基金品种内。该打算推出7年来，参加者越来越意识到，在其参加的打算外，还存在或许能提供更高回报的基金。关于多数MPF参加者而言，要紧的投资品种是多资产基金，此种基金将其资产分散投资于全球范围内的股票和债券，占该MPF全部资产的半数以上。债券基金相当不受欢迎，在全部资产中仅占不足2％，股票基金所占比例则超过20％。自香港经济从2003年中的低谷中复苏以来，职员流淌率的增加，使MPF打算参加者对服务提供商的业绩有了更多了解。换工作的参加者能够将其资产转移至新雇主的打算中、接着参加现有雇主的打算，或建立一个自己选择服务提供者的保留账户。关于许多服务提供商而言，保留账户已成为它们猎取新业务的狩猎场。在MPF打算的资产中，目前约有多达20％由一些服务提供商的保留账户持有。由于参加者选择投资品种而导致的资产转移，将慢慢地使MPF从一个基于雇主的打算，转变为一个由个人治理的机制。在这种机制下，雇员将能够从市场上更广泛的基金品种中进行选择。然而，关于不经常变动工作的参加者而言，这种演变或许过于缓慢，或者可能过于笨拙和不便。因此，关因此否所有参加者都应拥有更多的选择，以及能够定期将资产转移到市场上的任何一只基金，人们的争论越来越多。关于服务提供商通常每年收取1.5％至2％的费用，人们争论较大。在这种情况下，将重点放在比较基金的业绩上就显得特不重要了。那些在业绩方面落后的养老储蓄打算，将日益发觉难以证明其全部收费的合理性。在香港，有关可选投资品种的争论，与美国养老储蓄打算的进展历程形成了鲜亮对比。在发起MPF前的咨询时期，相关人士多次提及美国401K制度的成功之处，以及其投资选择多样而广泛的优点。但实践经验表明，最初选择有限的MPF打算设定了正确的基调，而且现在差不多预备好同意更多投资选择了。最近，美国接连发生了针对受托人的集体诉讼，导致许多打算都设定了默认选择——立即参加者缴款投入多资产基金，实际上将投资策略和选择基金的决策权从雇员手中拿走。或许那个例子表明，亚洲的有用主义如何产生了更有效和进步的成果。本文作者为香港RCMAsiaPacific行政总裁译者/何黎Q&AONASADLYPREDICTABLEDEBTCRISISByMartinWolfTuesday,September11,2007Wearelivingthroughthefirstcrisisofourbravenewworldofsecuritisedfinancialmarkets.Itistooearlytotellhoweconomicallyimportantthisupheavalwillprove.Butnobodycandoubtitssignificanceforthefinancialsystem.ItsoriginsliewithcreditexpansionandfinancialinnovationintheUSitself.Itcannotbeblamedon“cronycapitalism”inperipheraleconomies,butratheronirresponsibilityinthecoreoftheworldeconomy.Whathashappenedraisesimportantquestions.Hereareseven.First,whydidthiscrisisstartintheUS?Theansweris:“Theborrowing,stupid”.Defaultondebt–actualandfeared–alwaysdrivesbigfinancialcrisesbecausecreditorsthinkthattheyoughttoberepaid.UShouseholdsweretheworldeconomy'smostimportantnetborrowersinthemid-2000s,replacingtheemergingmarketsofthe1990s.Second,whatcreatedtheconditionsforthecrisis?Ittookfoolishborrowers,foolishinvestorsandcleverintermediaries,whopersuadedtheformertoborrowwhattheycouldnotaffordandthelattertoinvestinwhattheydidnotunderstand.Infact,eventheborrowersmightnothavebeenfoolish:ifoneownsnothing,itmaybequitesensibletospeculateonever-risinghousepricesintheknowledgethatpersonalbankruptcyisalwaysawayout.Third,whydidthiscrisisescalate?“Contagion”is,asalways,theanswer.BenBernanke,chairmanoftheFederalReserve,describedtheprocessinhisspeechattheJacksonHoleconferencelastweekend.“Althoughthisepisodeappearstohavebeentriggeredlargelybyheightenedconcernsaboutsubprimemortgages,globalfinanciallosseshavefarexceededeventhemostpessimisticprojectionsofcreditlossesonthoseloans.Inpart,thesewiderlosseslikelyreflectconcernsthatweaknessinUShousingwillrestrainoveralleconomicgrowth.Butotherfactorsarealsoatwork.“Investoruncertaintyhasincreasedsignificantly,asthedifficultyofevaluatingtherisksofstructuredproductsthatcanbeopaqueorhavecomplexpay-offshasbecomemoreevident.Also,asinmanyepisodesoffinancialstress,uncertaintyaboutpossibleforcedsalesbyleveragedparticipantsandahighercostofriskcapitalseemtohavemadeinvestorshesitanttotakeadvantageofpossiblebuyingopportunities.”*Fourth,howbadmighttheimpactbecome?SinceAmericansborrowintheirowncurrency,theUSauthoritiescan,itseems,loosenmonetaryandfiscalpolicyatwill.Nevertheless,asignificantglobalslowdownisnotimpossible.OnereasonisthateventheUScannotrisklosingtheconfidenceofitscreditors.Anotheristhatriskpremiumsarelikelytoriseacrosstheboard,withadverseconsequencesforeconomicactivityinmanycountries.Yetanotheristhatbanksmaylackthecapitaltoreplaceatemporaryshrinkageinnon-bankcredit.Itisnotobvious,inaddition,whowouldactastheworld's“borroweroflastresort”,shouldUShouseholdsretrench.Finally,biglossesmayyetemergeelsewhere,notleastinothercountries'overvaluedhousingmarkets.Fifth,howshouldcentralbanksrespond?Theyhavetwoclassicfunctions:toensurestabilityintheeconomy,byavoidingbothinflationanddeflation;andtoprovideliquiditytoanilliquidfinancialsystem.Thechallengeonthefirstmandateisnottooverreactinanticipationofwhatmaybeonlyamodestbliptotheeconomy.Thefederalfundsratewillalmostcertainlybecutthismonth.Itisnotobviousthatitshouldbeslashed,however.Inflationremainsarisk,afterall.Thechallengeonthesecondmandateistodefinewhatkeepingthefinancialsystem“liquid”means.Theclassicdefinitionistoprovidemoney–theultimatestoreofvalueandmeansofpayment–tosoundbanksthreatenedbyarun.Apossibledefinitioninsecuritisedmarkets,however,istoactasbuyeroflastresort,therebyguaranteeingliquidityinmarketsatalltimes.ForthereasonsIexploredlastweek(thispage,August282007),thelatterwouldbeadangerousdeparture.Sixth,whatisthefutureofsecuritisedlending?Goodreasonscanstillbeadvancedforshiftingexposurefromthebalancesheetsofthinlycapitalisedbankstothoseofbettercapitalisedoutsideinvestors.Thetheorywasthatriskwouldthusbeshiftedontothosebestabletobearit.Thepracticeseemstohavebeenthatitwasshiftedontothoseleastabletounderstandit.Thesupplyofsuchfoolshas,ifonlytemporarily,driedup.Intheshortrun,securitiseddebtislikelytocontract,asexistingdebtispaiddownorwrittenoff.Inthelongerterm,intermediarieswillhavetofindawaytomaketheirproductsmoretransparenttothebuyers.Unfortunately,theratingsagencies,whichonceservedthispurpose,havelosttheircredibility.Seventh,whatdoesthiseventimplyforthefutureofregulation?Itisimportanttodistinguishtwoobjectives.Oneistoprotectinnocents.Theinvestorswhoboughttheproductsdonotfallinthiscategory.Theywere,ifnotfools,willingspeculators.Itisnotatallobviouswhythestateshouldtrytoprotectsuchinstitutionsfromtheirownfolly.Thosewhoborrowedthemoneytobuyhousesmay,however,bedeemedinnocents.Whetherthisappliestopeoplewhoexaggeratedtheirearningsinapplyingforloansisanopenquestion.Butpaternalistsmayrequireminimumdownpaymentsortheabolitionof“teaser”interestratesandotherdevicesthatencouragedordinarypeopletoborrowmorethantheycouldafford.Thesecondobjectiveofregulationistoinsulatefinancialmarketsagainstthesortofpanicseeninrecentweeks.Theonlywaytodothatmaybetore-regulatethemcomprehensively.Restrictionswouldhavetobeimposedonproductssoldorontheabilityofguaranteedfinancialinstitutionstoengageinoff-balance-sheettransactions.Icannotseehoweitherwouldnowbemadetowork.Regulationofthedetailofthefinancialsystemmayfallsomewherebetweenhardandimpossible.Itiswhyfinancialinstitutionsmustneverbetoobigtofail.Financialcrisesarealwaysdifferentindetailandthesameintheiressence.Thisoneisnoexception.Itshowedthenormalpatternofrisingpricesofassets,expandingcredit,speculation,excess,thenfallingprices,defaultandfinallypanic.Thenewsecuritisedfinancialmarketsaremeetingatest.Wewillsoonknowhowfartheymanagetopassit.全球次贷危机七大问题作者：英国《金融时报》首席经济评论员马丁•沃尔夫(MartinWolf)2007年9月11日星期二我们正在经历证券化金融市场那个新世界的首个危机。现在要出讲此次动荡在经济上会何等重要，未免为时过早。但没人能够质疑其对金融体系的意义。此次动荡的源头在于美国本身的信贷扩张和金融创新。我们不能将其归咎于周边经济体的“裙带资本主义”(cronycapitalism)，反倒应该归咎于那个全球经济核心的不负责任。目前发生的情况提出了一些重要问题。以下确实是其中的7个。首先，为何这场危机始于美国？答案是：“因为借贷，傻瓜”。债务违约（实际发生的和人们担心的）总是会引发重大金融危机，因为债权人认为他们应该得到还款。2005年前后，美国家庭取代上世纪90年代的新兴市场，成为全球经济中最为重要的净借款人。第二，什么为此次危机制造了条件？是愚蠢的借款人、愚蠢的投资者和聪慧的中介机构。中介机构讲服借款人借入他们无法负担的债务，投资者投资于他们并不了解的产品。事实上，即便是借款人可能也不愚蠢：假如一个人一无所有，那么他们投机日益上涨的房地产，可能是一种相当合理的行为，因为他们明白，个人破产总是一个解决方法。第三，为何此次危机会愈演愈烈？和以往一样，答案确实是“传染效应”。美联储(Fed)主席本•伯南克(BenBernanke)上周末在杰克逊霍尔会议的讲话中描述了这一过程。“尽管此次事件大概要紧是由次级抵押贷款领域担忧加剧的引发，但全球的金融损失差不多远远超出对这些贷款哪怕是最为悲观的预测。在一定程度上，这些更广泛的损失可能反映出如此一种担忧：美国房地产市场疲弱将抑制整体经济增长。但其它因素也发挥了作用。”“投资者的不确定性已明显增加，因为关于缺乏透明度或回报结构复杂的结构性产品，要评估其风险变得愈加困难。此外，正如在多次面临金融压力时一样，杠杆参与者可能被迫出售资产和风险资本成本上升方面的不确定性，大概已让投资者不愿利用潜在的买进机会。”*第四，此次危机的阻碍可能有多严峻？由于美国人是以本币举债，美国当局大概能够凭自己的意愿放松货币和财政政策。只是，全球经济增速显著放缓的可能性并非不存在。一个缘故是，即便是美国也不能冒失去债权人信心的风险。另一个缘故是，风险溢价可能全面上升，许多国家的经济活动将受到负面阻碍。只是，还有一个缘故是，银行可能缺乏取代临时性收紧的非银行信贷的资金。此外，假如美国家庭紧缩开支，看不出来谁会成为全球“最后的借款人”。最后，巨额损失还可能在其它地点出现，特不是其它国家估值过高的房地产市场。第五，各国央行应该如何应对？央行有两个典型的职能：一是通过幸免通胀和通缩，确保经济的稳定；二是向缺乏流淌性的金融体系提供流淌性。第一项任务的挑战是不要过度反应，期待着经济也许只是是出现适度的临时停顿。美国的联邦基金利率本月几乎确信会下调。只是，下调利率的缘故并不明显。怎么讲，通胀仍然是一个风险。第二项任务的挑战是给保持金融系统“流淌”下定义。传统的定义是向受到挤兑威胁的健康银行提供货币——最终的价值储藏和支付手段。然而，证券化市场上一个可能的定义是：充当最终购买人，以此始终保障市场上的流淌性。出于我上周探究过的理由，后一种定义是一种危险的背离。第六，证券化借贷的以后如何？关于将资产从资本较少的银行的资产负债表上剥离给资金更为充足的外部投资者，人们仍然能够提出专门好的理由。这种做法背后的理论是，风险因而能够转移给那些最有承担能力的人。实际上，风险大概转移给了那些最不了解它的人。这种傻瓜投资者的供给差不多（假如讲仅仅是临时的）枯竭。从短期看，随着现有债务被偿还或被注销，证券化债务有可能萎缩。从长期看，金融中介机构将不得不设法提高其产品对买家的透明度。不幸的是，曾经发挥这一作用的评级机构差不多失去了信誉。第七，这场动荡对以后的监管意味着什么？区分两个目标颇为重要。第一是爱护无辜的人。购买了债务产品的投资者不属于此类。假如讲不是傻瓜，他们确实是自愿的投机者。政府应当努力爱护这些金融机构免受自己蠢行的冲击，其中的理由并不充分。然而，那些借钞票买房子的人能够被视为无辜的人。这是否适用于那些申请贷款时夸大收入的人，目前还需要讨论。但家长主义者可能会要求设定最低首付或者废除“诱惑性”低利率(“teaser”interestrates)，以及其它鼓舞一般老百姓借入超过其承受能力的贷款的工具。第二个监管目标是爱护金融市场免受最近几周这种恐慌的冲击。实现这一目标的唯一方法或许是重新实行全面监管。监管机构应当对已出售产品或金融机构从事资产负债表表外交易的能力实行限制。我认为，两种方法都无法发挥作用。对金融体系进行细节监管，这或许专门困难，或是全然就不可能。这确实是金融机构永久不能过分扩大规模，否则就可能倒闭的缘故。金融危机永久是细节不同，本质却相同。这次也不例外。它显示了一种常规模式，即资产价格上升、信贷扩张、投机、过剩，然后资产价格下降、违约、最终市场出现恐慌。新证券化金融市场正面临一场考验。我们专门快就会明白，它们能在多大程度上度过这场危机。译者/何黎GLOBALISATION'SEXILESKEEPTHEHOMEFIRESBURNINGByRichardLapperTuesday,September11,2007Thismonth,asacrisisinasmallsub-sectionoftheUShousingmarketcreatedhavocaroundtheglobe,mediaattentionhasfocusedonhighfinanceandthelinkagesbetweentheworld'sbigeconomies.Butthereisanothercompellingstoryofeconomicintegrationandglobalmobilityofmoneythatisarguablymoreimportanttomorepeoplethanderivativesandoff-balancesheetinvestmentfunds.Itisthestoryofremittances,thepoorman'scounterparttoarcanefinancialinnovations,andhowtheyhavewroughtvastandvisiblechangesinmanydevelopingcountries.Withbordersopeningandthewagegapbetweenrichandpoorcountrieswidening,morepeoplethaneverhavedecidedtoseektheirfortunesandworkabroad.Thegrowthofmoneytransferservicesmeansitiseasierthaneverforthemtosendtheirwageshometosupportfamilies.Inmanydevelopingcountriestoday,moremoneycomesfromremittancesthanfromforeignaid,foreigninvestmentoreventraditionalexports.InCentralAmerica,remittanceshavelongeclipsedtraditionalagriculturalmainstayssuchascoffeeandbananas.MigrantssendmoremoneytoMoroccothantouristsspendthere.Insomesmallcountries–Lebanon,Serbia,Haiti,Tonga,AlbaniaandJamaicaareallexamples–remittancesgeneratemorerevenuesthanallmerchandiseexportsputtogether.ThelatestWorldBankfigureslist14countrieswheremigrants'earningsaccountfor15percentormoreofeconomicoutput,rangingfromMoldovawith38percenttoJamaicawith16.4percent.Remittancesarealargerpartoftheglobaleconomythantheyhaveeverbeen.Migrantsfromdevelopingcountriessentback$206.3bn(£102.3bn,�51.1bn)in2006,accordingtotheWorldBank,nearlyseventimesthelevelof1990.Thatisaccordingtoofficialfigures–unofficially,theymaybedouble.Basedonextensivesurveys,ManuelOrozco,aremittancesspecialistattheWashington-basedInter-AmericanDialogueinstitute,estimatesbasedthatthetotalamountsenthometothedevelopingworldlastyearwas$298bn,muchhigherthantheWorldBank'sestimate.DilipRatha,whoheadsthemigrationandremittancesunitattheWorldBank,saysheexpectsremittancesworldwidetocontinuegrowingatabout10percentayearinthemediumterm.Otherssaythatthephenomenonislevellingoff,andthattheslowingrateofincreaseofremittancesfromtheUStoMexicocouldbeaharbingerofadownturn.AsurveybytheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBankthismonthfoundthatlegalrestrictionsfacedbyillegalimmigrantsinGeorgia,Louisianaandanumberofotherstateswereleadingmanymigrantstocuttheamounttheyweresendingback.Someeconomistsarescepticalaboutthevalueoftheseflows,arguingthattheydonotcompensatefortheeconomicdisruptioncausedtoacountrybyhighratesofmigration.Thatisespeciallythecaseforcountriesthatexportskilledworkerssuchasdoctorsorengineers.Inanarticlepublishedthisyear*,forexample,thelateeconomistRiccardoFaini,formerlyoftheCentreforEconomicPolicyResearch,demonstratedthatskilledmigrantsremitlessmoneytotheirhomecountriesthanunskilled,largelybecausetheformeraremorelikelytocomefromwealthierfamiliesandmoreabletobringdependantstothehostcountry.Thenegativeimpactofthebraindrain,therefore,isnotmitigatedbyanyincreaseinremittanceincome.Notonlydocountriesfindthemselvesshortofskilledpersonnel,theyalsoeffectivelywastemoneytrainingthem.JamaicahadtotrainfiveandGrenada22doctorstokeepjustone,accordingtoresearchcitedbytheWorldBank,forexample.InthePhilippinessomedoctorshavere-trainedasnursesinordertogoabroad.Thereissomeconcernaboutthemacroeconomicimpactofremittances.Incountriesthatareexceptionallydependentonremittancesforforeignexchange,theinflowscanartificiallyinflatethevalueofalocalcurrency,makingimportscheaperandexportslesscompetitive.Inaddition,remittancescancreateeconomicdependencyandreducethewillingnessofpoorcommunitiestodolow-paidmanualwork,especiallyamongyoungerpeople.Butmorerecently,policymakershavebeguntostressthepositives,arguing–astheWorldBankdidinanimportant2005report–thatremittancescanreducepovertyandhelpthelesswell-offrideoutdownturns.Aswellashelpingmeetbillsforfoodandmedicines,transfersareusedforschoolfeesandbooks.Themoneytendstobemorereliablethanothersourcesofforeigncapital:duringthe1990sremittanceswereoneoftheleastvolatilesourcesofforeignexchangefordevelopingcountries.Whilecapitalflowstendtoriseandfallwiththeeconomiccycle,flowsofremittancesweremorestable.“Theytendtobecounter-cyclical,”saysMrRatha.DevelopmenteconomistssuchasMrRathastresstheimportanceofchannellingremittancestowardsmaterialassetssuchashousesorsmallbusinesses.Therehavebeensomesignsthatthisishappening.A2006studybytheInter-AmericanDevelopmentBankindicatedthatuptoathirdofmigrantsareinvestingmoneycomparedtoonlyabout5percentinasimilarsurveyconductedtwoyearsago.EarlierpapersbythesamebankciteevidencefromTurkey,MexicoandEgyptshowingthatremittanceshelpmigrantsbuildupbusinessesandbuildhomes.Evenso,governmentswillalmostcertainlyneedtodomoreinordertoharnessthepotentialoftheseflows.Remittancescanbechannelledintotheformalfinancialsystemwheretheycan–intheoryatleast–beconvertedintosavingsandasourceoflong-terminvestment.Successfulinvestmentschemesusingremittances–somewithgovernmentbacking–areoneofthemainthemesofthisseries.移民汇款养活进展中国家？作者：英国《金融时报》理查德•拉帕(RichardLapper)2007年9月11日星期二上个月，随着美国住宅市场小小的次级抵押贷款领域发生的一场危机在全球造成一场浩劫，媒体注意力都集中在高度金融化和全球大型经济体之间的联系上。只是，还有另外一个引人入胜的、有关经济一体化和资金全球流淌性的故事。对更多的人来讲，那个故事能够讲比衍生品和资产负债表外投资基金更加重要。这是一个关于汇款的故事，是穷人之中奇妙的金融创新故事，讲述的是汇款如何在许多进展中国家引起了广泛而显著的变化。随着边界的开放和穷富国家间薪资差距的拉大，从未有过这么多人决定出国查找自己的财宝和工作。资金转账服务的增长意味着，关于他们来讲，把工资寄回国养家糊口从未如此简单。现在，在许多进展中国家，来自汇款的收入差不多超过了外国援助、外商投资乃至传统出口。在中美洲，海外汇款收入专门早之前就超过了咖啡、香蕉等传统的农业支柱产业。移民汇往摩洛哥的钞票比旅游者在那儿花的钞票更多。一些小国——如黎巴嫩、塞尔维亚、海地、汤加、阿尔巴尼亚和牙买加——来自汇款的收入超过了全部商品出口额总和。世界银行(WorldBank)最新数据列出了14个移民收入占经济产出的比例超过15%的国家，从摩尔多瓦的38%，到牙买加的16.4%。汇款在全球经济中所占比重越来越大。据世行称，进展中国家的移民2006年汇回了2063亿美元，几乎是1990年的7倍。这是依照官方数字得来的结果——若以非官方数字衡量，也许还要翻倍。依照广泛的调查，总部位于华盛顿的美洲国家对话组织(Inter-AmericanDialogue)的汇款