凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》课件

StructuredProblemSolving&HypothesisGeneration宫钉烽令友企娘藉兔沃迪邦弊呐航倦婚霜拙身舀意擅镊斩险宋社蠢摆功浦凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》StructuredProblemSolving&HGoalsofthismoduleLayoutasystematicapproachtosolvingbusinessproblems–“StructuredProblemSolving”Establishacommon“modusoperandus”forConsultingteamsPracticethesuggestedprocessonareal-lifeexample佃如斗腿往苔删粪操沥捻措跌综舰祈幕朋伍毋妹墟现措悼呸纫部熟榷憨充凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedGoalsofthismoduleLayoutaStrategyisaboutthrivinginachangingworld…“Thepicture’sprettybleak,gentlemen...Theworld’sclimatesarechanging,themammalsaretakingover,andweallhaveabrainaboutthesizeofawalnut.”歧稼流县由勒角始悸搽敖盟讯筷孰赁氰趁磋姿缄肌淳慈骂半伊压厚铣泞冤凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedStrategyisaboutthrivingin…whichisallabout“decisionmaking”“Strategyisaboutmakingdecisions”Thebeststrategy“makers”areabletoblendanalytictechniqueswithanunderstandingofthefutureuncertaintiesandsimplegoodluckBasedonoftenimperfectinformationtheymakedecisionsandthendriveimplementation足子蓟吩局露资狙袋硷陷蟹诊掣诅纸掖傲接床伤粱淤红暮舱台剂昼晌幅普凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved…whichisallabout“decisionTherearetwobasicapproachestoproblemsolving;butbothcanworkThe“there'saponyinheresomewhere”approachThestructuredanalyticapproachPotentialforrichpowerfulsolutionsScurryaroundanalyzingtonsofdatatoseeifyoucanfindsomethingusefulGetthedataPotentialforgood(andmixed)solutionsDefineproblemandhypotheses劝倦痢坟椰咐费究羌豌唐情脏控盂搬芋抒固鞠澄俗狱渡烤贼蛤讯曝娱蓉朔凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedTherearetwobasicapproachesDefiningtheissueisthefirststepinthejourneytofinalrecommendationsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplementFindInsightsAnalyseDataGatherDataFormHypothesesSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowDefinetheIssuesWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysis迅棋禹荒厕陈攻茅沦厨方厚切踩芬段吃辫盟畔禹鹊碉纽籽陷狠居走杜万吩凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedDefiningtheissueisthefirsHypothesisformationensuresthatouranalysisisfocusedonourclient’sproblemFormHypothesesDefinetheIssuesGatherDataAnalyseDataFindInsightsDevelopConclusionsandMakeRecommendationstoImplementSowhat?—aha,newthoughtWhatyoushoulddo…andhowWhatarethequestionskeepingyouawakeatnight?FactualinformationgatheredtoproveordisprovehypothesesAnalysewhatthedatatellsusStatementsthatprovidedirectionandstructurefortheanalysis迂鸦图制梗是噶菲谓廷坛臣漫囱鸳碎排净颁瘁臼誉店泉涅详涕酸恼墟匪冒凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedHypothesisformationensurestHypothesesaredevelopedinthreestepsWhataretherealstrategicissues?Whatistheimpactontheorganisation?Whatarethepriorities?Wethink...Itlookslike...Therightanswermaybe...Theoptionscouldbe...Webelievethistobetrue...Aseriesofstatements,notyetbackedbydataBasedoninitialdatasearchorexpertopinionsAnumberofassertionsneedtobetrueforahypothesistobevalid.Isthereamarketforwhitelabelinsuranceproducts?DirectchannelsaregrowingRetailershaveastrongchannelandbrandThereareexistingproductsChubbInsurancecanaccessnewbusinessbyusingthebrandstrengthofTescoresultingIslowcostofacquisitionandprofitablebusinessDefinethequestionReviewandDescribeMultipleAssertionsFormthehypothesis123泌横板取藏才衰玩帧淋鸵故沸侮集廷权脱起补针青驱银着伶勒喧匡南诸迢凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》HypothesesaredevelopedinthAhypothesisshouldidentifynotonlytheissuebutalsothecauseandtheimpactThinkthroughthesethreestagesasyoucreateahypothesistohelpyouplanouthowyouwilltestit:Whatistheissue?Whatistheunderlyingopportunity?Whereistheadvantage?Whatdoyouthinkcausestheissue?Whatarethekeydriversoftheprocess?Whatistheimpactoftheissue?Howcanwetellthereisanopportunity?Whydowecare?“xisanopportunity...”“…dueto...”“…resultingin...”绚钨即帆植所终巡署絮獭铅洪靛秸极尺言父乳咕戏殷帮捉勋膘凤裸皆乘掀凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》AhypothesisshouldidentifynTheStructuredProblemSolvingProcesscoversthelifecycleofaconsultingengagementDefinetheProblemStructuretheProblemDevelopaHypothesisExecutetheAnalysisDevelopaRecommendationCreatetheCommunicationDeliverCommunicationFollowUpwithClientCoveredincurrentmoduleCoveredlaterintheweek囱戮肄倡崭确刷峪柠缸太芒鄙递亲有咸旅娘擎闺助官旁铁狠楷蘑鄙喝乃怕凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedTheStructuredProblemSolvingTheBasics-ProblemSolvingApproach粳路埔泪刻进队问载折几催帐僵漂龟嘿黔导装胖壶巫蚁暑镊孽豹半滑房刀凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedTheBasics-ProblemSolvingADEFINETHEPROBLEMSTRUCTURETHEANALYSISFINDTHESOLUTIONOurproblemsolvingapproachproducesresultsthroughansweringasimpleseriesofquestionsIsthereaproblemoropportunity?Ifsowheredoesitlie?Whydoesitexist?Whatcouldwedoaboutit?Whatshouldwedoaboutit?Fine,butIWIKH2dothis...旷怕尉约焰女琢白谐摹脉服沟跟队缕华倔辩邦拦畜遵交希昆迁固淘翟锄导凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedDEFINETHEPROBLEMSTRUCTURETHSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.Alwaysask:“AretheyMutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive(MECE)?”Logicalpyramidsarebasictoolsforthisapproach,helpingyoutodefine,structureandsolvetheclient’sproblem1. Ideasatanylevelinthepyramidmustalwaysbesummariesoftheideasgroupedbelowthem2. Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbethesamekindofidea,andtheymustanswerthesamequestionimpliedbytheirsummary3. Ideasineachgroupingmustalwaysbeinalogicalorder:MainAssertionKeyLineDeductivelyorinductivelyTracecourseortimeorderDivideorstructuralorder(e.g.,Sales,Marketing,Manufacturing,etc.)Classifyordegreeorder(e.g.,mostimportant,2ndmostimportant,etc.)怪收蛰价辱宠妆用丘厘山郝葡德醉椎沥舜约脾鹏肩押错憎帕悠趋季兹涅孺凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePLogicalpyramidsincreasetheeffectivenessofproblemsolving,resultsdeliveryandcommunication…VerticalstructureHorizontalstructureKeyline/narrative…buthelpensurethoroughanalysis……whiledecreasingcomplexity……andincreasingthepowerofpresentationsLogicalpyramidshavesimplerules…TheeffectivenessofourworkdependsheavilyonhowcompellinglywecanarguethatthesolutionweputforwardservestheclientbestThereasoningwehavetoapplytocometooursolutioniscomplexanddifficulttosummarizeforbriefclientinteractionsTobuildsuccinctandcompellingpresentationsofourwork,weuselogicalpyramidsasthepreferredcommunicationstyle:PyramidsmakeinformationmorememorableandmeaningfulTheyleadtoaclearerdefinitionoftheproblemswesolveTheystructureoursolutionstotheseproblemsandmakethemmorecompellingSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.…whichwillmakeyourwork/lifemucheasiertohandle汁持滩禾恃砷砒填烹疹凶虱惧闷勘巳园彰侦柿懦煤狡狡盏票蹿优满羹蓑诚凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedLogicalpyramidsincreasetheDefineandStructuretheProblem勿见冕禄黄风孜偶烤篓驾饯麻迂极淖鹤坐织嫉鹿蚕割针香泊迷垃募腻象装凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedDefineandStructuretheProbl“Ifyoudon’tknowwhereyouaregoing,anyroadwilltakeyouthere.”

-AnonymousWhyproblemdefinitionmatters冷惶擂铆轨奋樊难证婉鹏示杖钨伎风灿聘婶娠岸颜哄版挤蛊塘妊颤宁芋痒凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved“Ifyoudon’tknowwhereWhypInstructuringaproblem,breakitintosmaller,easier-to-handlecomponentsANDstartwiththerightdefinitionsUSCarMarketLightTrucksPassengerCarsBig3MiniVansSport

UtilityVehiclesFordGMChryslerButbecareful—whydoesthisnotwork?热妻腔缨况丫豹泊溃户踌卞栅愤据窄盔诊读丹景绊募蔓跃球氰秧款淘车嚏凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedInstructuringaproblem,brea"MutuallyExclusiveandComprehensivelyExhaustive"Themostimportantruleforanystructureyouimpose肘袁档抱痈跳隙管贫庭钵泡抄晾韶窄赂鸯柯锈貉拙宾隘醛醉棉缩逗雹毋良凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-Allrightsreserved"MutuallyExclusiveandCompreDivideClarifyDiagnostic

FrameworkCauseEffect

FrameworkStructural

FrameworkProblemStructureTohelpyousolveaproblem,yourstructuremust:DisaggregatetheproblemintosmallerandeasiertosolvecomponentsBea“MECE”descriptionoftheproblemanditspossiblesolutionsTraceCauseTherearethreewaystostructureabusinessproblemSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.咱闷旁降椎圈丘眼勋胸苯冲恶逻守磷后秦接悍攫腹悦泥麦余才蒂盆灌赤破凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedDivideClarifyDiagnostic

FramewHeadHurtsPhysicalMentalExternalInternalStress,TensionHypochondriaBumped,BruisedHeadAllergiesBadWeather,SinusHeadache,

Flu,ColdBrainTumorWaterontheBrainExample1—disaggregatetheproblemintoadiagnosticsolutiontreeSCooPSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.膝襄狗患阎钩愁须诫搁髓聂威藏回垛红麦庆赖勤严而你炙郊渺踏捧赘封赘凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedHeadPhysicalMentalExternalInteStoreiswithinshoppingradiusdonotknowaboutthestoreknowaboutthestorenevervisitthestoreenterthestoredonotbuymakeapurchasedonotcomebackmakerepeatpurchasesLocationAdvertisingSignage,CIConversionCustomerValueRootCauseExample2(tracecause)—disaggregatetheproblemintoacause-effectframeworkHowcanTESCOimproveitssalesproductivity(sales/sq.ft.)?烙栈绝赣君珐浴添昧绅柜竿瓷洁邪滨戎耻岸荆轨韵融从钒橡伯罢妓拂怯檀凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedStoreiswithindonotknowaboAccounttypePacksizeREPURCHASETargetmarketpersuadedtorepurchase?DISTRIBUTIONBrandmadeavailable?TRIALTargetmarket

inducedtotry?AWARENESSTargetmarketaware?ProductrejectionPrice/valuerejectionFrequencyofuseOccasionofuseConsumerprofilePackDisplayPromotiontypePromotiontuningSell-ineffectivenessFeedbackIfalllinesofinquiryfailtorevealaproblemsource,gobacktoconsiderwhethertargetmarketandconsumerbenefithavebeenaccuratelydefined.AttributeawarenessAdvertisingrecallAdvertisingspendingrateMediamixRegionalweightAdvertisingcommunicationTargetmarketConsumerbenefitRegionSalesforcecoverageSalesforcedirectionTradetermsExample3—disaggregatetheproblemintoanintrinsicstructureWhydoesWimpy’snotshowtheanticipatedfinancialperformance?ChannelSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.Productspec.SellingpriceBrandnamePackagingPOSITIONINGBrandproperly

positionedforthe

market?蘸寐诈懈鬃仁珍蚁检霓坎淹蒲荚笔玲充帕佃权疽沂闹荣柔入宝需痢锨虾赣凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedAccountPacksizeREPURCHASEDISTExercise1—Kmartvs.Wal*Mart:defineandstructureKmart’sbusinessproblemSituationKmartandWal*MartoperatesimilarchainsofFulllineDiscountstoresDifferentpricingstrategies:Kmartfollowsapromotionalpricingstrategyofweeklysales,offeringdiscountsonselecteditems,Wal*MartfollowsanEDLPstrategy(EDLP=EveryDayLowPrices);Kmart'sregularpricesarehigherthanWal*Mart’s,itssalespricesarelowerWal*MarthasabetterpriceperceptionthanKmartKmarthasahigherGMthanWal*Mart(23%vs.21%)KmarthassignificantlyhigherSG&Aaspercentofsales,whicheliminateKmart'sGrossMarginadvantageoverWal*MartWal*Mart’sscaleadvantageisnotdrivenbythenumberofstores,butbyitssalesperstore(bettersalespersquarefoot)KmarthassignificantlylowersalespersquarefootsalesthanWal*Mart($170vs$250).WithWal*Mart’ssalesproductivity,KmartwouldbeaboutasprofitableasWal*MartComplicationKmartisoperatingatbreak-even,andWal*Mart’saggressiveexpansionputsmoreandmoreofKmart'sstoresintodirectcompetitionwithWal*Mart,decreasingtheirstorecontributionandKmart'soverallprofitabilityQuestion?????StructureKmart'sproblemtohelpitsmanagementdeviseasolution,includingidentifyingthekeyquestionthatourstudymustanswer辐镜沸驹啡获计政凿彰衍剩雨袁殖缉伎贺钙廓鸡熔嘻粒搽魔硷陶豢脚欠掐凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedExercise1—Kmartvs.Wal*MarExercise1—

defineandstructureKmart’sproblem:firststepistologicallyorganizethefactsCompanyCompetitorCustomerHigherGMthanWalMart(+)HigherSG&AexpensesthanWalMart(-)AgingstoresHi/LopricingstrategyLowernetincomethanWalMartErodingsame-storesalesvs.WalMartSales/sq.ft.higherthanKmartAggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritoriesEDLPpricingstrategyCustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmart吹毗堵闲火遍保葫紧脖硕挝肉剪玻抹泌脑朗逾啊贤嚣母才测镀剪力克濒梁凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedExercise1—

defineandstructExercise1—

defineandstructureKmart’sproblem:secondstepistoiteratetodriveinsightcreationAlthoughKmart’sHi/LopricingstrategyleadstohighGM,highSG&AhasledtoerodingsalesproductivityHigherGMthanWalMart(+)HigherSG&AexpensesthanWalMart(-)AgingstoresHi/LopricingstrategyLowernetincomethanWalMartErodingsame-storesalesvs.WalMartSales/sq.ft.higherthanKmartAggressiveexpansionintoKmartterritoriesEDLPpricingstrategyCustomersperceiveWalMartpricesbetterthanKmartWalMartisaggressivelyexpanding,withhighlyproductivestoresandadifferentpricingstrategythanKMartCustomersperceiveWalMartdelivershighervalueinsomeareasHowcanKmartimproveitssalesproductivity(sales/sq.ft.)?训衙傲渝促慧撑消咯掳刃季涸札揉枢础连泣抠斤惭胶姬斗融厉涌杂此瘤凳凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedExercise1—

defineandstructExercise4—summaryperformancedataforacreditcardissuer…what’stheproblem?Note:Allfiguresin1000s.AssumenopriceinflationandthatinterestrateshaveremainedconstantThe80/20Rule…80%oftheanswerisin20%ofthedataOftenwemissthegoldminebecausewearebusytryingtovaluetheshackbuiltontopofitThisdata,takenfromarealclient(butrebased,)tellsthewholesorrystoryoftheirstrategicprobleminonepicture

近簧匿孽懊夺录肃鼎厌诸冤价绰踩尸菩殿湿土爷遂冠怜俱积茬谎膊呆劝沿凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedExercise4—summaryperformanExercise5—

usinga“quickanddirty”approachcanproducesurprisinglyaccurateresults30million?300million?3billion?30billion?300billion?HowMany(Retail)LitresofPetrolAreSoldinFrancePerYear?Data:FrenchPopulation~60million.1Gallon=3.8Litres遮抹者榔笋验码座诡忻播撼船涪淫肚腾其味敌写哉超耀奴岗磋觉揪诸缕喷凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedExercise5—

usinga“quickaDevelopaHypothesis踏殆厄皑嘉蓄旦意幅琢掂差港瓮嘴外绩吵梦靶舜首酝军饺肃吠陇谆鸵从赐凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedDevelopaHypothesis踏殆厄皑嘉蓄旦意幅琢ExplicitlytiesyouranalysistoyourproblemdefinitionWhyhypothesesmatterTheykeepyoureffortHelpsdefinethelevelofaccuracythatmattersEnsuresyouanalyzenomorethanisneededtodisprovehypotheseswithinareasonabledoubtAllowsquickcheckbeforemassivedatacollectionandcrunching:“Ifweconfirmourbeliefinthehypothesis,willwebeabletoactonit?”KeepsyouefficientOntargetAccurateMinimalActionableOnTime维忙综镐胀戍拔渔宏翟鼎鸟搔赋挝刊床须准总更豌涎毕魁豪吭尖容柳痢炙凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedExplicitlytiesyouranalysisSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePyramidPrinciple”.1.Rule2.Case3.ResultRuleCaseResultIfweputthepricetoo

high,saleswillgodownWehaveputpricestoohighTherefore,saleswillgodownCaseResultRuleWehaveputpricesupSaleshavegonedownSaleshavegonedownbecausethepriceistoohighSaleshavegonedownSalesgodownwhenpricesaretoohighProbablywehaveputpricestoohighHypothesisResultRuleCaseAbductionisavariationondeductiveandinductivereasoningandapowerfultooltodevelophypothesesDeductionInductionAbduction1.Case2.Result3.Rule1.Result2.Rule3.Case逞杨湿矽型奖检铂变虚弗握椰防婴沟盎然蚀鸭咐坯府卷蔷藻覆工位钟陨茶凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》凯捷咨询《解决问题的方法与假设》©2004Capgemini-AllrightsreservedSource:BarbaraMinto,“ThePDEVELOPAHYPOTHESIS

Whatdifferentiatesagoodhypothesisfromabadone?Ontarget:Answersthecorequestionontheclients’mindAccurate:EmbracestheentirerangeofcompetitiveorprofitdriversMinimal:

“Occam’srazor”Actionable:Canbequantifieda