中国可再生能源：以更接近电网平价的价格重振可再生能源

1、The Credit Suisse Connections Series leverages our exceptional breadth of macro and micro research to deliver incisive cross-sector and cross-border thematic insights for our clients.Research Analysts Dave Dai,CFA852 21017358 HYPERLINK mailto:dave.dai 11 March 2019 Asia Pacific/China Equity Research

2、UtilitiesChina Renewable Energy SectorCONNECTIONS SERIESCONNECTIONS SERIESResurging renewables on closer grid-parityFigure 1: Revise upsolarnewFigure 2: and higher wind new adds in ChinainFY19-20EaddsGary Zhou, CFA(GW)(Rmb/W)(GW)(Rmb/W)852 21016648 HYPERLINK mailto:gary.zhou MathewHampshire-Waugh44

3、20 78880194 HYPERLINK mailto:mathew.waugh 1005350341704410.040755.0200.003523232520218.07.06.0MarkFreshney44 20 78880887 HYPERLINK mailto:mark.freshney mark.freshneyMichael Weinstein,ERP2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Post grid-paritySolar (old)Solar (new)Unit investment cost Source: NEA, Credit Sui

4、sse estimates2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E Post grid-parityWind (old)Wind (new)Unit investment cost (wind)Source: NEA, Credit Suisse estimates212 3250897 HYPERLINK mailto:w.weinstein Maheep Mandloi212 3252345 HYPERLINK mailto:maheep.mandloi VincentGilles44 20 78881926 HYPERLINK mailto:vincent.gill

5、es GloriaYan852 21017369 HYPERLINK mailto:gloria.yan Solar parity a reality. Following our grid-parity predictions in HYPERLINK /s/V7ckDA4AD-WEsKUc June 2018, solar panel costs have become 20% cheaper, making conditions ripe for a long-awaited parity in 2019. We revise up China demand by 11-13% to 4

6、5/50GW in 2019/20 as (1) more competitive tenders under a target subsidy scheme could create higher installations in 2019 (37GW); (2) subsidy-free projects could add 8/40GW of extra demand in 2019/20. Our post-parity forecast remains 75GW/year after 2020. Demand momentum should support manufacturing

7、 margins to bottomout.Wind up next. Costs of wind are also with lower and and we expect in 2020 as the and may not be for parity yet with fewer cost cuts. Thus, we expect to capex in the next two years, to the larger in those before new grants are fully removed 2020. to a few years ago, the should n

8、ow be more to build with lower and project Our new are revised up 9-12% to inKey and risks. For solar, we expect global demand to improve with in most China. The demand also a price and margin rebound for the makers. For wind, the two are (1) subsidy fromtheforand(2)largercapexthisyear.a of a 5 of D

9、ISCLOSURE APPENDIX AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT CONTAINS IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS, LEGAL ENTITY DISCLOSURE AND THE STATUS OF NON-US ANALYSTS. US Disclosure: Creditto do in its As a be the a of of as a in Focus charts and tableFigure 3: More subsidy-free solarprojectscomingFigure 4

10、: Solar manufacturing margins likely torise(GW)8070(GW)807060504030201008755340 60354437 133131115102010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020E2021E2022E1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19100%80%60%40%20%0% Poly(low-cost) Poly(medium-cost) Multi-wafer Mono-wafer Solarglass-10%Subsidi

11、zeddemandGrid-paritydemand%contributionfromgrid-paritydemand-20%Source: National Energy Administration (NEA), CreditSuisseestimatesSource: Company data, Credit SuisseestimatesFigure 5: Large unfinished wind backlog supports accelerating capex before parity happens (Jun-2018 data)(GW)10471047 33 8710

12、5100Figure 6: Most central and coastal locations require much lower capital costs for wind-parity, not fit for parity by2020806040200Capacity approved2018 Dstributed wind Large windpowerTotal7,0006,0005,0004,0003,000Qinghai Hainan Guizhou Tianjin Beijing Henan Shaanxi Shanxi Jiangxi Chongqing Shando

13、ng Anhui GuangdongQinghai Hainan Guizhou Tianjin Beijing Henan Shaanxi Shanxi Jiangxi Chongqing Shandong Anhui Guangdong Liaoning Guangxi Hubei Jiangsu Zhejiang Hunan Sichuan Fujian Shanghaiconstructed by 1H18for 2018-2020Eplan in 2018Source: GoldwindsresultspresentationSource: Company data, Credit

14、SuisseestimatesFigure 7: Deleveraging and improved profitability motivates wind farms to buildmoreFigure 8: Valuation with ample room to re-rate given the longer-term growthopportunitiesROE (%)12%10%8%6%4%2%0%Net gearing (%)270%250%230%210%190%170%150%201320142015201620172018EROENet gearing ratio (R

15、HS)(Wind, P/B)1.4x fwd P/B24x fwd P/E1.4x fwd P/B24x fwd P/EMean: 0.9xCurrent: 0.6x0.5x fwd P/BCurrent: 11xMean: 10 x6x fwd P/E0.20.0WindSolar(Solar, P/E)302520151050Source: Company data, CreditSuisseestimatesSource: The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service, Credit SuisseestimatesFigure 9: Key stock cal

16、lsCompanyTickerRatingTPU/DP/E (x)P/B (x)ROE (%)EPS CAGR (%)18E19E20E18E19E20E18E19E20E18-20EWindLongyuan Power0916.HKO8.844%8.67.00.710.111.311.918.5Huaneng Renewables0958.HKO3.854%14.015.515.519.4Goldwind2208.HKO16.063%13.614.317.126.4VestasVWS.COU460.0-14%20.319.43.422.021.319.64.3SolarXinyi Solar

17、0968.HKO4.725%18.123.926.538.0DaqoDQO61.074%11.213.920.962.7LONGi601012.SSU18.0-31%29.824.03.315.917.016.718.9Note: Priced as of 7 March 2019. O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U = Underperform. Source: The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service, Credit Suisse estimatesHigher solar demand is driven by more com

18、petitive pricing creating higher project capacities.Manufacturing margins improve in the shorttermHigher wind demand is driven by likely highercapex amid improved profitability and rush installations in locations not fit forparity.This also needs to be backed by improving operator cash flows and mor

19、e gridsBetter demand supports global solar expansion. High-cost poly makers, like Wacker Chemie, stand a victim. We also do not see Vestas as a wind turbine beneficiary in China with falling prices. Gamesa stands a chance with differentiated productsSolar: top buys are Xinyi, followed by DQ. Top sel

20、l is LONGi. Wind: we like both Goldwind (equipment) and operators (Longyuan and Huaneng Renewables)Resurging renewables on closer grid-paritySolar: Closing in parityWe reiterate our conviction that a solar grid-parity will occur in 2019. First, we expect subsidy-free projects to emerge this year wit

21、h 8GW, followed by 40GW next year. For those still requiring subsidies, we expect cheaper costs to result in lower tender tariffs, suggesting upside on subsidy capacities (37GW this year) in a fixed subsidy quota scheme. These two forces result in larger demand forecasts than before, thanks to rapid

22、ly declining solar costs (down 20% in 2H18 alone). We forecast 45/50GW annual china demand in 2019-20 vs our previous 40/45GW. Higher demand from China should support global demand growth or even margin upside on the manufacturing side such as poly, wafers and glass.Wind: Last call before take-offTh

23、e case for wind could be a little more complex than solar. First, the parity may happen a year later, more likely a partial parity, as most of the central and coastal locations are unlikely to reduce costs significantly to reach parity (given already higher utilisation and lower curtailment). Also,

24、unlike solar, unfinished wind project reserves are very large (80- 90GW), meaning the unfinished projects after 2020 (especially for central and coastal) face risk of full removal of subsidy. Therefore, we expect the operators to accelerate their capex plans and our new connection forecasts are 25/2

25、8GW vs 23/25GW before. This is supported by improved profitability (curtailment has come off from 17% in 2016 to 7% in 2018) and stronger balance sheet (net gearing now 200% vs. 240% a few years back). Larger capex creates shipment upside for equipment companies to offset the pricing pressure. Meanw

26、hile, such capex should also be supported by improved subsidy payments to the operators and continuing buildout of ultra-high voltagegrids.Implications for China mix and global peersCheaper generation costs of renewables should help boost capacity growth potential to 75GW and 35GW a year for solar a

27、nd wind after 2020. By 2025, we estimate renewables to contribute 20% of Chinas power output (8% in 2018) and further cost innovations could boost renewables competitiveness against fossil fuel. Also, from a global perspective, Chinas solar demand helps us revise our global demand forecasts but high

28、- cost players such as Wacker Chemie (Neutral) should remain challenged by Chinas growing low-cost supplies over the long run. Chinas wind parity may help global players such as Vestas (Underperform) and Siemens Gamesa (Outperform) in that it increases demand. In the longer term, we see markets for

29、wind going from onshore to offshore (as in the UK) hence benefitting Siemens Gamesa more as it has a bigger offshorebusiness.Valuations far from richto to vsWea to of(Ato11 March 20194China Renewable Energy Sector11 March 20194China Renewable Energy SectorFigure 10: ValuationcomparisonCompanyTickerR

30、atingPriceTPU/DMcapbn 18EP/E19E20E18EP/B19E20E18EYield19E20E18EROE19E20ECAGR18-20ECS analystChina w ind operatorsLongyuan Pow er0916.HKO6.18.844%3.310.111.311.918.5Dave DaiHuaneng Renew ables0958.HKO2.53.854%4.714.015.515.519.4Dave DaiChina Resources Pow er0836.HKO14.420.039%8.88.810.511.419.8Dave D

31、aiChina Datang Renew ables1798.HKO1.11.982%1.09.911.713.729.5Dave DaiHuadian Fuxin Energy0816.HKO1.82.645%0.44.06.07.79.311.813.632.3Dave DaiConcord New Energy0182.HKO0.40.519%4.79.410.911.520.1Gloria YanSimple average10.211.912.923.3China w ind equipmentGoldw ind - H2208.HKO9.816.063%4.013.614.317.

32、126.4Gary ZhouGoldw ind - A002202.SZN14.913.7-8%7.316.313.92.313.614.317.126.4Gary ZhouChina solar sectorXinyi Solar0968.HKO3.84.725%3.718.123.926.538.0Gary ZhouDaqo New EnergyDQO35.161.074%3.00.00.00.011.213.920.962.7Gary ZhouGCL Poly3800.HKO0.660.9036%1.5n.m.0.00.0-n.m.Gary ZhouLONGi601012.SSU26.0

33、18.0-31%10.829.824.00.515.917.016.718.9Gary ZhouGCL New Energy0451.HKO0.360.5041%0.70.00.00.014.414.813.311.2Gary ZhouLinyang Energy601222.SSO5.97.018%1.612.811.510.21.01.01.011.8Gary ZhouSimple average4.914.116.028.5Global w indSiemens Gamesa Renew ableSGREN.MCO13.415.717%10.318.315.57.122.2Mark Fr

34、eshneyVestasVWS.COU533.4460.0-14%16.620.319.41.622.021.319.64.3Mark FreshneyWeighted average19.317.415.43.013.113.413.3Global solarWacker ChemieWCHG.DEN89.183.0-7%5.318.040.75.0-21.7Mathew Hampshire-WaughJinko SolarJKS.NN16.713.0-22%0.7n.a.-8.6-0.60.00.00.04.3-6.9-2.1n.m.Maheep MandloiFirst SolarFSL

35、RN51.453.03%5.437.920.721.01.11.01.00.00.00.02.85.04.734.3Michael WeinsteinSunPow erSPWRN6.37.011%0.9n.a.n.a.n.a.-4.2-3.0-2.30.00.00.0307.3-3.2-13.8n.m.Michael WeinsteinSunrunRUNO15.224.058%1.765.730.73.80.00.00.02.97.010.146.1Michael WeinsteinAzure Pow er Global LimitedAZREO11.022.0101%0.4n.a.n.a.n

36、.a.0.00.00.0-9.63.05.5n.m.Maheep MandloiNextEra Energy Inc.NEEO187.6190.01%89.724.322.42.910.910.410.68.1Michael WeinsteinWeighted average36.51.02.816.7Note: Priced as of 7 March 2019. O = Outperform, N = Neutral, U = Underperform. Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesTable of contents HYPER

37、LINK l _bookmark0 Focus chartsandtable2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Resurging renewables onclosergrid-parity3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Solar: Closinginparity3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Wind: Last callbefore take-off3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Implications for China mix andglobalpeers3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Valu

38、ations farfrom rich3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Solar: Closingin parity7 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 What happenedin20187 HYPERLINK l _bookmark8 Revising up 2019/20 Chinademandforecasts8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark9 Ground-mounted demand needs afinalpush10 HYPERLINK l _bookmark10 Distributed solar already closeto

39、inflection11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark11 State-owned groups likely toexpandsolar12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark12 Polysilicon: low-cost producers tostandout13 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Wafer ASP already startedto rebound14 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 Solar glass: still one of themostprofitable15 HYPERLINK l _bookmar

40、k15 Near-term price rebound unlikely to affectgrid-parityoutlook16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 Wind: Last callbefore take-off17 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Wind: Parity to be possiblein202018 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 Challenging economics in Zone IVfor parity19 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 Larger capex requires b

41、ettercash flows20 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 and betterinfrastructure too21 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Implications for windturbine suppliers22 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 Rising offshore anddecentralisedwind23 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Implications for China mix andglobalpeers24 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Post-pa

42、rity wind/solar forecastsareunchanged26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 Implications forglobalsolar26 HYPERLINK l _bookmark26 Implications forglobalwind28 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Valuations farfrom rich31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark28 Viewson wind31 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 Viewson solar32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30

43、Valuationvs cycles32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark31 HOLT view on China RenewableEnergysector34 HYPERLINK l _bookmark32 Appendix37 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Longyuan Power (0916.HK /916HK)39Remains on thesweetspot39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Huaneng Renewables Corporation (0958.HK /958HK)41Higher capex to suppo

44、rtstronggrowth41 HYPERLINK l _bookmark35 China Datang Renewables Power (1798.HK /1798HK)43Earnings expansionto continue43 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Huadian Fuxin Energy Corporation Limited (0816.HK /816HK)45Mixed growth outlook but valuationremainsattractive45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 Xinjiang Goldwind

45、 Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (2208.HK /2208HK)47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology Co.,Ltd. (002202.SZ)49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark39 Xinyi Solar Holdings (0968.HK /968HK)51 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 Daqo NewEnergy (DQ.N)53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 GCL-Poly Energy Holdings L

46、td (3800.HK /3800 HK)55 HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 LONGi Green Energy Technology (601012.SS /601012CH)57 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 GCL New Energy Holdings (0451.HK /451HK)59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 Jiangsu Linyang Energy (601222.SS /601222CH)61We revise up solar and wind demand forecasts in China: 45/50G

47、W (13/11% higher) for solar and 25/28GW (9/12% higher) for windSolar: Closing in parityIf grid-parity was still a good guess back in June 2018 when we published our first HYPERLINK /s/V7ckDA4AD-WEsKUc renewable parity report, today our predictions are coming true, albeit partially. On 9 January 2019

48、, Chinas National Energy Administration (NEA) announced the supportive measures for solar and wind power, which for the first time, made grid-parity an official target, after years of policy expectations.In this report, we keep our parity timing unchanged for solar in 2019 and wind in 2020. But we r

49、evise up solar and wind demand forecasts in China: 45/50GW (13/11% higher) for solar and 25/28GW (9/12% higher) for wind. This leads to earnings upside for most of the upstream manufacturing companies. Most of the operators should see mild earnings upside in FY20E as the higher capex in FY19E will t

50、ranslate into output largely in the following year (except Huadian Fuxin with lower-than-expected hydro earnings). For Goldwind, as price tenders during FY18 were larger than expected, we revise down our ASP estimates to 10% and 3% declines in FY19E and FY20E; however, most of the pressure should be

51、 offset by larger shipment forecasts, resulting in 2-13% EPS cuts.Figure 11: Key assumption changesCompanyTickerRatingTarget priceEPS changeEPS growth (YoY)NewOldNewOldChangeFY18FY19FY20FY18FY19FY20WindLongyuan Power0916.HKOO8.808.800%0%0%0%32%22%15%Huaneng Renewables0958.HKOO3.803.800%0%-2%3%16%25%

52、14%Datang Renewables1798.HKOO1.931.902%0%2%3%61%29%30%Huadian Fuxin0816.HKOO2.602.85-9%-18%-9%-6%6%37%27%Concord New Energy0182.HKOO0.500.500%0%0%0%152%25%16%Goldwind2208.HKOO16.0016.60-4%-7%-13%-2%25%17%36%SolarXinyi Solar0968.HKOO4.704.504%0%0%3%-24%43%33%Daqo New EnergyDQOO61.0058.005%-26%1%14%-5

53、0%47%80%GCL Poly3800.HKOO0.900.8013%0%2%5%lossn.m.63%LONGi601012.SSUN18.0013.0038%0%25%9%-33%24%14%GCLNE0451.HKOO0.500.500%1%1%0%3%19%4%Linyang601222.SSOO7.005.7023%4%11%18%18%11%12%Source: Company data, Credit Suisse estimatesWhat happened in 2018We first start our analysis with solar. Subdued dema

54、nd in China (especially in 2H18) was the key reason for a substantial negative global demand in 2018 (flattish YoY per industry data, vs 20% CAGR over the past five years). Coupled with large manufacturing supply expansion (across poly and wafers), solar equipment prices ended the year with large de

55、clines, one of the most challenging years for manufacturing. Across product segments, multi-wafers led the contraction (-56%), followed by mono-wafers (-46%), polysilicon (-46%) and modules (-30%). Solar glass, with much better supply-demand balance, saw a mere 16% drop in 2018 (after a price hike i

56、n Dec-2018).Figure 12: Key solar component price trend(Rebased to 100)130120110100908070605040Feb-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19PolyWafer (mono-Si) Wafer (Multi-Si) Ce

57、llModule Solar glassCurrent solar investment cost (Rmb4.4/W) is very close to our parity point of Rmb4/WSource: The BLOOMBERG PROFESSIONALTM service.The benefit of the price challenge is a big leap towards the grid-parity inflection. Based on our calculation, the current capital cost to build a sola

58、r farm in China averages around Rmb4.4/W (sharply cheaper than Rmb5.6 in 2017), very close to our parity point of Rmb4/W (likely in 2H19E). In some of the locations where benchmark tariffs are higher, we think parity is already ripe today. Roof-top or so-called distributed projects would be even mor

59、e profitable benchmarking higher end-user tariffs. During 2018, we estimated that average solar farm investment cost dropped by 14-15%, quicker than our previous expectation of 12% decline, partly due to margin squeeze across the manufacturing value chain. As a result, we expect the overall unit inv

60、estment cost decline to slow down to 9-12% YoY over the next two years, leaving room for margin recovery for manufacturers on improving solar demand. However, this does not affect our grid-parity timeline projection, because we now only need 10% cost decline to reach solar grid-parity as mentionedea