邮轮航线范围转移：现在我是掌舵人

1、24January2019UnitedStatesEQUITIESTicker RatingClose Old TPNew TP2019e EPSCCLOP$54.27$58.00 $66.00$4.73RCLN$108.31 $104.00 $112.00$9.35NCLHN$46.72$55.00 $57.00$4.97Source: FactSet, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019; priced as of 1/23 closeCapacity growth across operatorsCruiseline2019202020212022

2、CCL14.6%5.5%7.2%5.2%RCL29.0%4.2%8.6%8.0%NCLH23.0%8.0%0.0%2.5%net of ship dispositionsgross capacity growthSource: Company data, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019Inside HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 ExecutiveSummary2 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 Running downthemanifest3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 Fuel is cheap, b

3、ut watch out forIMO202012 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Berths are on the rise, butdemandsatisfies15 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Historical valuation and performance vs. the S&P HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 500 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Export credit financingchangesthings25AnalystsMacquarie Capital (USA) Inc. HYPERLINK

4、 /directory/people/details?analystId=4944 Paul Golding +1 212 231 8003 HYPERLINK mailto:paul.golding paul.goldingCruise LinesTransfer of coverage: Im the captain nowKey pointsKey points Cheap fuel should benefit CCL near term, while RCL is most ready for IMO2020. Advance booking and deposit growth r

5、emains strong, outpacing capacitygrowth. Upgrading CCL from N to OP; await RCL and NCLH results in coming weeks.In this note, we transfer coverage from Matthew Brooks to Paul Golding.Fuel is cheap, but watch out for IMO 2020Cruise lines should see some near-term benefits from cheap fuel. Brent has f

6、allen from a 2014 high of $115/bbl and a 2018 high of $85/bbl to a current price of $62/bbl, a 46% and 27% drop vs. the 2014 and 2018 highs respectively. Our Macquarie oil analysts expects crude prices to be range bound here, but a macro shock looms.Carnival is most exposed to cheaper fuel ahead of

7、IMO 2020, and Royal Caribbean is the best positioned for 9-12 months from now in light of coming fuel dynamics in our view. RCLs hedging program is sufficiently weighted towards MGO which should see demand and pricing rise in the medium term, and the fleet has sufficient scrubbers.Berths are on the

8、rise, but demand satisfiesCapacity will continue to grow substantially, with Carnival expecting 4.6% and 5.5%in 2019 and 2020 respectively, Royal Caribbean at 9% and 4.2%, and Norwegian at 3% and 8%. But demand as measured by deposit growth is well ahead of capacityjumps.Carnivals deposit levels hav

9、e seen stable growth since 2014, whilesmallercapacity lines Royal Caribbean and Norwegian have seen deposits step up fairly sharply since early 2018, which coincides with the beginning of the capacity wave.Except for 2015-16 at RCL, both revenue and earnings growth haveoutpacedcapacity growth from 2

10、015-2018e for all three cruise lines.Shares pricing in macro uncertainty, but still cheap vs. recessions Cruise lines in aggregate have traded within a consistent band of average forward PE multiples over the past 5, 10, and 20 years the multiple has ranged from 14.0 x to 14.4x over these periods, i

11、mplying some degree of reversion as a group in our view.The forward PE multiples for CCL and RCL during the 2000 Dot-com crash averaged 14x as well 17x for CCL and 11x for RCL, and cheap exportcredit financing for ships wasnt used then this is a structurally beneficialchange.Over the past 5 years, t

12、he average S&P forward PE multiple has been 16.2x vs. the aggregate cruise line average forward PE multiple of 14.4x an 11%discount outside recessionaryperiods.Upgrading CCL to OP, awaiting results for RCL and NCLHCCL. Upgrade from Neutral to Outperform, and raising TP from $58 to $66 on 14x 2019e P

13、E this is a 22% premium to CCLs current multiple of 11.5x and a 10% discount to the S&P multiple of 15.6x. Of the 3 major domestic cruise lines, Carnival is the most exposed to the favorable move in oil prices.RCL. Maintain Neutral rating on RCL shares, raising TP slightly from $104 to $112 on 12x 2

14、019e PE. While RCL is in a good defensive position heading into IMO 2020, its substantial 2019 hedging program will cost it some savings. Results coming Jan.30. NCLH. Maintain Neutral rating on NCLH shares, raising TP slightly from $55 to $57 on 11.4x 2019e PE. Given NCLHs exposure to rising MGO fue

15、l prices ahead of IMO 2020, we think the end of the year could reveal a significant fuel headwind.Please refer to page HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 28 for important disclosures and analyst certification, or on our website HYPERLINK /research/disclosures /research/disclosures.Executive SummaryIn this note,

16、 we transfer coverage from Matthew Brooks to Paul Golding.Running down the manifestCarnival. We are upgrading Carnival shares from Neutral to Outperform and shifting from EV/EBITDA to forward PE. Our target price rises from $58 to $66 on 14x 2019e PE this is a 22% premium to CCLs current multiple of

17、 11.5x and a 10% discount to the S&P multiple of 15.6x. Of the three major domestic cruise lines, Carnival is the most exposed to favorable moves in oil prices.Royal Caribbean. We maintain our Neutral rating on RCL shares, but are shifting from EV/EBITDA to forward PE. Our target price rises slightl

18、y from $104 to $112 on 12x 2019e PE this is almost in line with the current multiple of 11.6x and a 23% discount to the S&P multiple of 15.6x. While RCL is in a good defensive position heading into IMO 2020 with hedges and scrubbers in place, its substantial hedging program for 2019 will cost it som

19、e savings.Norwegian. We reiterate our neutral rating on NCLH shares, but are shifting from EV/EBITDA to forward PE. Our target price rises from $55 to $57 on 11.4x 2019e PE a 21% premium to thecurrent multiple of 9.4x and a 27% discount to the S&P multiple of 15.6x, the average discount over the pas

20、t 4 years. But given NCLHs anticipated disproportionate exposure to rising MGO fuel prices ahead of IMO 2020, we think the tail-end of the year could reveal a significant fuelheadwind.Fuel is cheap, but watch out for IMO 2020Brent has fallen from a 2014 high of $115/bbl and a 2018 high of $85/bbl to

21、 a current price of $62/bbl, a 46% and 27% drop vs. the 2014 and 2018 highs respectively. Our Macquarie oil analysts expects crude prices to be range bound from here, but a macro shock looms on the fuel horizon. IMO 2020 the UN rule which calls for sulfur content in emissions for commercial ships to

22、 not exceed 0.5% vs. the current high-sulfur Bunker fuel (HFO/ IFO) emissions which sit at 3.5% - will have a material impact on how cruise lines view fuel costs.Carnival is most exposed to cheaper fuel ahead of IMO 2020, and given the lower fuel prices, we think Carnival could see the most near-ter

23、m benefit, but we think the positive impact of this will wane as 2020approaches.Royal Caribbean is the best positioned for 9-12 months from now in light of coming fuel dynamics,in our view. Its hedging program is sufficiently weighted towards MGO which should see demand and pricing rise in the near

24、to medium term, and a substantial portion of its fleet has scrubbersinstalled.Berths are on the rise, but demand satisfiesCapacity will continue to grow substantially, with Carnival expecting 4.6% and 5.5% in 2019 and 2020 respectively, Royal Caribbean at 9% and 4.2%, and Norwegian at 3% and 8%. And

25、 China demand growth isnt necessarily absorbing this new capacity, in light of our cruise lines divesting from JVs and redeploying ships out of China, at least in the case of RCL and NCLH. But demand as measured by deposits would suggest other markets are more than making up the difference.Carnivals

26、 deposit growth was flat from mid-2012 to late 2014, and has seen stable growth since then, while smaller competitors Royal Caribbean and Norwegian have seen deposits step upfairly sharply since the beginning of 2018, which coincides with the beginning of the capacitywave.Except for 2015-2016 at RCL

27、, both revenue and earnings growth have outpaced cap growthfrom 2015-2018e for all 3 cruiselines.Shares are well below hist. multiples despite lower risk from export credit financingCruise lines in aggregate have traded within a consistent band of average forward PE multiples over the last 5, 10, an

28、d 20 years the multiple has ranged from 14.0 x to 14.4x over these periods demonstrating some degree of mean reversion as a group, in our view.The forward PE multiples for CCL and RCL during the 2000 Dot-com crash averaged 14x as well 17x for CCL and 11x for RCL, and cheap export credit financing fo

29、r ships wasnt widely usedthen.Over the past five years, the average S&P forward PE multiple has been 16.2x vs. the aggregate cruise line average forward PE multiple of 14.4x an 11% discount outside recessionaryperiods.Running down the manifestCarnivalWe are upgrading Carnival shares from Neutral to

30、Outperform and shifting from EV/EBITDA to forward PE. Our target price rises from $58 to $66 on 14x 2019e PE this is a 22% premium to CCLs current multiple of 11.5x and a 10% discount to the S&P multiple of 15.6x. Of the three major domestic cruise lines, Carnival is the most exposed to favorable mo

31、ves in oil prices, and its continued weighting towards high-sulfur bunker consumption in 2019 and 2020 should prove to be a tailwind without fuel hedges in place, we expect material fuel savings to flow through results.Carnival for the most part has traded in line with the S&P multiple for the past

32、several years we calculate an average discount over four years of only 6% on forward PE. And as shown on the chart below, periods of trading at a substantial discount to the S&P have lasted 1 year or less. CCL shares have been sitting at a discount for over a year now, and we think as in prior cycle

33、s, they may revert back towards the market multiple. But should broader economic weakness put pressure on shares, we think the likelihood leans more in the direction of compression between multiples rather than proportional decline for both.Fig 1 Carnival on average has traded in line with the S&P m

34、ultiplecons. forward35.030.025.020.015.010.05.00.0Prem/DisctoS&PCarnival(CCL)S&P5000.40.20-0.2-0.4-0.6-0.8Source: FactSet, Macquarie Capital (USA), January 2019Carnivalexpects 80/20 split forHFOvs. marine gas oil (MGO)most of the progressingtowards 70/30 for 2020, and reverting back to80/20.Recently

35、, Carnival saw a drop-off in share price on last quarters report after commentary around pricing in Europe made investors nervous management was adamant that the region is very strong, and later explained that they are pushing out the booking curve and baseloading on occupancy for better pricing sup

36、port on the back end of the curve down the line. Shares have since come back 18% on the hopes that pricing at the tail will support the overall yield, but proving this out could be 12-15 months away.On the fuel front, management decided to let all hedges roll off for 2019. Given currently low fuel p

37、rices and heavier reliance on what we expect will be cheaper high-sulfur fuel oil (HFO), CCL is best exposed to near-term fuel benefits. IMO 2020 regulation will start affecting supply and demand of marine fuels toward the end of 2019, and Carnival expects an 80/20 split for HFO vs. marine gas oil (

38、MGO) for most of the year, progressing towards 70/30 for 2020, and then reverting back to 80/20. As MGO demand rises and HFO demand falls, our expectation is that the favorable consumption weighting should allow fuel savings to flow through results.The quarter and year aheadQ1 F2019 will see half th

39、e companys capacity deployed in the Caribbean which so far is ahead of last year at higher prices, although on an easy weather comp. The quarter should also see a nice fuel tailwind and strong bookings across regions and brands management has said overall occupancy is well ahead of last year, and th

40、is is in the context of capacity growth from 2018 newbuild deliveries.Offsetting these benefits is an estimated $0.04 hit to earnings from the AIDA Nova delay which was supposed to deploy for customer itineraries on December 2nd but was instead put in service December 19th for paying guests, losing

41、almost three weeks of itineraries in Q1. Recall, the damages payment for delayed itineraries is refunded to the balance sheet and not the P&L, so earnings will still see a net impact.We forecast Q1 EPS of $0.44 in the quarter vs. consensus $0.43 and guidance of $0.40 to $0.44. We model (1.2%) report

42、ed net revenue yield declines for the quarter vs. guidance of (3.0%), and (0.3%) declines in reported net cruise costs ex fuel vs. guidance of (0.5%).F2019 overall has occupancy well ahead of last year with bookings coming in at similar pricing levels. Management disclosed less remaining inventory d

43、espite the capacity increase and provided a 5.5% constant currency net cruise revenue increase forecast. The net benefit from fuel and FX should equate to a $0.14 positive EPS impact full year, on top of a 1% constant currency increase in net revenue yield and a 0.5% increase in net cruise costs/ AL

44、BD excluding fuel.We expect F2019 revenue of $19.9bn and EPS of $4.73 vs. consensus $4.77 and a guidance range of$4.50-$4.80. We also model reported net revenue yield growth of 0.3%, and (0.5%) net cruise costs declines ex fuel vs. guidance of (1.0%) for both.Weve updated fuel pricing for the next f

45、ew years and incorporated our expectation of a gradual progression toward 70/30 HFO/MGO split for 2020 in the face of lower crude prices for the foreseeable future and increasing spreads between HFO and marine grade oil (MGO) our F2019e fuel costs sit at$1.5bn.Structural updatesYODA to make sense of

46、 capacity and priceCarnival expects new capacity growth of 5% through 2022, and to manage pricing despite this capacity growth, the company has rolled out a revenue management system called YODA across its six smaller brands that dont benefit from the same scale Carnival, Princess, and AIDA manage;

47、the new system should start driving yield growth in the 2nd half of FY19. Carnival has also been leveraging the tool to make pricing and bundling determinations, including beneficial options for airfare purchase that reduce booking friction for those who need to travel to ports of call. Increasing t

48、he efficiency of this process should also be meaningful given the volume of airfare purchased Carnival is the 5th largest buyer of air travel in the US. This will become increasingly important as Carnivals net capacity growth expectations call for 4.6% growth in 2019, 5.5% in 2020, 7.2% in 2021, and

49、 5.2% in 2022. Also note, these capacity figures could fall further in the out years as the fleet ages and more ships aresold.Capital expenditures are also expected to jump starting with 2019 at $6.8bn, dropping from there to$5.7bn for 2020, $5.9bn for 2021, and $5.3bn for 2022. The jump is coming f

50、rom capital improvements as well as newbuild timing which for 2019 includes the delay of the AIDA Nova which was pushed just long enough to fall into the next fiscal year when delivery was originally expected in FY18.Leverage. Management is targeting a 2-2.5x gross debt to EBITDA leverage ratio and

51、is currently within the range.47% of total capacity will be deployed to the Caribbean in Q1.Risks besides capacity growthManagement also called out a series of macro factors that affected demand in certain key regions in Q4 we think some of these are worth keeping an eye on:In the Caribbean, the tai

52、l of the hurricane season last year drove the Q4 impact which could potentially lead to some weakness in the region in Q1, especially seeing as 47% of thetotal capacity will be deployedthere.European economic uncertainty ranging from budget approvals to Brexit could still weigh onP&O and Holland Ame

53、ricaitineraries.Dollar strength. Recent and continued dollar strength could weigh on advance bookingsabroad, especially from European tourists intending on a US itinerary. According to HYPERLINK /passenger-origins/ Cruise Market Watch, while 54.5% of cruisers come from North America, 26% come from E

54、urope a meaningfulslice6%18.66%18.6%17.5%18.2%13.6%12.8%16.2%13.1%(581)(568)(569)(573)(275)(280)(295)(274)Income Statement(Values in US$m)Feb-18AMay-18AAug-18ANov-18AFeb-19EMay-19EAug-19ENov-19E2016A2017A2018A2019E2020E2021EPassenger tickets3,1483,1934,3533,2363,2463,3734,6

55、333,37712,09012,94513,93014,62915,76116,929Growth %YoY12.3%11.2%5.2%3.4%3.1%5.6%6.4%4.4%4.2%7.1%7.6%5.0%7.7%7.4%Onboard and other1,0711,1221,3161,1701,1211,1911,4221,2334,0684,3304,6794,9675,3175,704Growth %YoY9.5%8.3%7.6%7.0%4.7%6.2%8.1%5.4% 4.7%6.4%8.1%6.2%7.0%7.3%Cruise Revenue4,2194,3155,6694,40

56、64,3684,5646,0554,61016,15817,27518,60919,59721,07822,633Growth %YoY11.6%10.4%5.7%4.3%3.5%5.8%6.8%4.6%4.3%6.9%7.7%5.3%7.6%7.4%Tour and other134216750230235272298304310Growth %YoY44.4%13.5%8.4%2.0%2.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%0.9%2.2%15.7%9.6%2.0%2.0%Total revenues4,2324,3575,8364,4564,3814,6106,2394,66516,388

57、17,51018,88119,89521,38222,943%YoY11.6%10.4%5.8%4.6%3.5%5.8%6.9%4.7%4.3%6.8%7.8%5.4%7.5%7.3%Commissions, transportation and other costs(663)(577)(760)(590)(700)(626)(809)(616)(2,240)(2,359)(2,590)(2,751)(2,923)(3,135)% ticket revenue21.1%18.1%17.5%18.2%18.5%18.2%18.6%18.8%18.5%18.5%Onboard and other

58、 costs(140)(138)(207)(153)(152)(152)(231)(161)(552)(587)(638)(697)(744)(800)% onboard revenue13.1%12.3%15.7%13.1%13.6%13.6%13.6%14.0%14.0%14.0%Payroll and related costs(558)(543)(537)(552)(1,993)(2,107)(2,190)(2,291)(2,419)(2,592)% cruise revenue13.2%12.6%9.5%12.5%13.3%12.4%9.4%12.4%12.3%12.2%11.8%1

59、1.7%11.5%11.5%Fuel costs(359)(373)(434)(453)(384)(390)(377)(361)(915)(1,244)(1,619)(1,513)(1,718)(1,841)% cruise revenue8.5%8.6%7.7%10.3%8.8%8.5%6.2%7.8%5.7%7.2%8.7%7.7%8.2%8.1%Food costs(264)(265)(275)(261)(1,005)(1,031)(1,065)(1,124)(1,196)(1,283)% cruise revenue6.3%6.1%4.9%5.9%6.3%6.1%4.9%5.9%6.2

60、%6.0%5.7%5.7%5.7%5.7%Other ship operating costs(711)(749)(655)(693)(712)(747)(700)(725)(2,525)(3,011)(2,808)(2,883)(3,107)(3,330)Net cruise cost adjustments41303Other ship costs ex-adjustments(711)(749)(655)(693)(712)(747)(700)(725)(2,484)(2,708)(2,808)(2,883)(3,107)(3,330)Adjusted other costs %crui