银行行业：盈利及资产质量前景稳健维持“跑赢大市”-评级

1、 HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Banking SectorMainland Chinese banks (mainland banks) listed in Hong Kong outperformed the Hong Kong Hang Seng index so far in2019.Asat10June2019,theYTDweightedreturnofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongoutperformedtheHangSengindex. IntermsoftheYTD weightedret

2、urn trendofmainlandbankslistedinHongKong,thehighestYTD weightedreturn sofarin2019was 33.6% on 8 April 2019. As at 10 June 2019, the YTD weighted return of mainland banks listed in Hong Kong was 23.6%.Exhibit 1: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and H-Share Index trend of mainland banks40.0%35.0%30.0%25.

3、0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19-5.0%HIS indexIndex of mainland Chinese banks in Hong Kong HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Banking SectorMainland Chinese banks (mainland banks) listed in Hong Kong outperformed the Hong Kong Hang Seng index so far in2019.Asat

4、10June2019,theYTDweightedreturnofmainlandbankslistedinHongKongoutperformedtheHangSengindex. IntermsoftheYTD weightedreturn trendofmainlandbankslistedinHongKong,thehighestYTD weightedreturn sofarin2019was 33.6% on 8 April 2019. As at 10 June 2019, the YTD weighted return of mainland banks listed in H

5、ong Kong was 23.6%.Exhibit 1: The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index and H-Share Index trend of mainland banks40.0%35.0%30.0%25.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%5.0%0.0%Jan-19Feb-19Mar-19Apr-19May-19Jun-19-5.0%HIS indexIndex of mainland Chinese banks in Hong KongSource: Guotai Junan International.Note: index of mainland ban

6、ks listed in Hong Kong are composited by the weighted average market capitalization of the mainland banks listed in Hong Kong, as at 5 June 2019.Chinas economy grew steadily in 1-4M19. In 1Q19, Chinese GDP recorded growth of 6.4%, down 0.4 pts The Chinese economy got off to a steady start and econom

7、ic structure continued to improve. The Industrial and service industries grew rapidly, investment growth picked up steadily, and consumption remained stable overall. In 1-4M19, industrial production roseby5.4%Fixedassetinvestmentgrewby6.1%in1-4M19.Nominalgrowthofretailsalesofconsumergoodsin April wa

8、s 7.2%. Exports and imports continued to grow but growth of exports and imports dropped as a result of Sino-US tradefriction. In 1-4M19, exports and imports increased by 5.7% YoY and 2.9% YoY, respectively.Exhibit 2: growth of Chinese industrial productionExhibit 3: growth of Chinese fixed asset inv

9、estment (Accumulated)20.018.016.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.018.016.014.012.010.08.06.04.02.00.0-2.0-4.0%Source: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Source: the National Bureau of Statistics of China. Page 2 of 41Apr-14Jul-14Oct-14Jan-15Apr-15Jul-15Oct-15Jan-16Apr-16Jul-16Oct-16Jan-17Apr-17Jul

10、-17Oct-17Jan-18Apr-18Jul-18Oct-18Jan-19Apr-19Apr-14Aug-14Dec-14Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19Banking Sector 银行行业10 June 2019 HYPERLINK / Sector Reportaddition, the Peoples Bank of China decided to imple HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Bank

11、ing SectorExhibit 5: growth of Chinese exports and growth of Chinese importsExhibit 4: growth of Chinese retail sales of consumer goods60.0%14.0%50.012.040.010.030.020.010.08.06.04.00.02.0-10.00.0-20.0-30.0ExportsImportsSource: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Source: the National Bureau o

12、f Statistics of China. Exhibit 6: growth of ChineseGDP8.5%8.07.57.06.56.05.55.0Source: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.YoY growth of Chinese GDP is expected to be 6.3% in 2019. Looking forward to the future, there are many favorable factors for Chinas steady economic development. Downside

13、 risks to global growth have increased, but overall growth remains stable. Chinas development is still in an important period of strategic opportunity, and will remain so for a long time to come. The three critical battles are making good progress; supply-side structural reform is deepening, and agg

14、regate supply and demand are basically balanced. Economic growth remains resilient and the reform and opening up policy has been vigorously promoted. The proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy are gradually strengthening. Financial support for the real economy is consolidating and credi

15、t contraction easing. Large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions are gradually becoming effective. The transformation of old drivers into new ones is accelerating. At the same time, structural deleveraging continues to be promoted and the prevention and control of financial risks has been effective. Th

16、erefore, although unfavorable factors such as increasing pressure on the deceleration of world economic growth, trade conflict, and geopolitical risks still disturb Chinas economy, we expect that Chinas economy will still grow steadily and economic growth quality will continue to improve in the rest

17、 of 2019.Overall, we expect YoY growth of Chinese GDP for 2019 to slow down to 6.3%.Monetary and financial environment was neutral and slightly loose on the whole in the past few months of 2019. In the pastfewmonthsof2019,inordertomaintainreasonablyabundantliquidityandresolveproblemsoffinancingdiffi

18、cultiesandhigh financing prices of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, the PBOCs monetary policies have been prudent. The PBOC adjusted liquidity conditions primarily through open market operations, new monetary instruments and the cut in RRRs. Monetary and financial environment was

19、 neutral and slightly loose on the whole. in 1-5M19, the PBOC injected a net amount of RMB81.5 bn. Secondly, in 1-5M19, the PBOC extended SLF of RMB114.9 bn. in 1-5M19, the PBOC carried outMLFofRMB0.4tn.Asattheendofaddition, the Peoples Bank of China decided to imple HYPERLINK / See the last page fo

20、r disclaimer Banking SectorExhibit 5: growth of Chinese exports and growth of Chinese importsExhibit 4: growth of Chinese retail sales of consumer goods60.0%14.0%50.012.040.010.030.020.010.08.06.04.00.02.0-10.00.0-20.0-30.0ExportsImportsSource: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.Source: the

21、National Bureau of Statistics of China. Exhibit 6: growth of ChineseGDP8.5%8.07.57.06.56.05.55.0Source: the National Bureau of Statistics of China.YoY growth of Chinese GDP is expected to be 6.3% in 2019. Looking forward to the future, there are many favorable factors for Chinas steady economic deve

22、lopment. Downside risks to global growth have increased, but overall growth remains stable. Chinas development is still in an important period of strategic opportunity, and will remain so for a long time to come. The three critical battles are making good progress; supply-side structural reform is d

23、eepening, and aggregate supply and demand are basically balanced. Economic growth remains resilient and the reform and opening up policy has been vigorously promoted. The proactive fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy are gradually strengthening. Financial support for the real economy is consol

24、idating and credit contraction easing. Large-scale tax cuts and fee reductions are gradually becoming effective. The transformation of old drivers into new ones is accelerating. At the same time, structural deleveraging continues to be promoted and the prevention and control of financial risks has b

25、een effective. Therefore, although unfavorable factors such as increasing pressure on the deceleration of world economic growth, trade conflict, and geopolitical risks still disturb Chinas economy, we expect that Chinas economy will still grow steadily and economic growth quality will continue to im

26、prove in the rest of 2019.Overall, we expect YoY growth of Chinese GDP for 2019 to slow down to 6.3%.Monetary and financial environment was neutral and slightly loose on the whole in the past few months of 2019. In the pastfewmonthsof2019,inordertomaintainreasonablyabundantliquidityandresolveproblem

27、soffinancingdifficultiesandhigh financing prices of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, the PBOCs monetary policies have been prudent. The PBOC adjusted liquidity conditions primarily through open market operations, new monetary instruments and the cut in RRRs. Monetary and financia

28、l environment was neutral and slightly loose on the whole. in 1-5M19, the PBOC injected a net amount of RMB81.5 bn. Secondly, in 1-5M19, the PBOC extended SLF of RMB114.9 bn. in 1-5M19, the PBOC carried outMLFofRMB0.4tn.AsattheendofMay2019,thebalanceofMLFreachedRMB3.6tn,down26.9%YTD.Fourthly,in1-5M1

29、9, the PBOC carried out PSL of RMB161.5 bn. As at the end of May 2019, the balance of PSL achieved RMB3.5 tn, up 4.5% YTD. Fifthly, the PBOC carried out TMLF of RMB524.9 bn in 1-4M19. the Peoples Bank of China decided to cut the required reserve ratio for financial institutions by 1 pt in January 20

30、19, which released a net long-term fund of about RMB800 bn. Inment a lower reserve ratio for small and medium-sized banks that focuson Page 3 of 41Apr-14Aug-14Dec-14Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Mar-12Jun-12Sep-12Dec-12Mar-13Jun-13Sep-13Dec-13Mar-14Jun-14Sep-14Dec-14Mar-15Jun-15Sep

31、-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19Dec-17Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19Apr-14Aug-14Dec-14Apr-15Aug-15Dec-15Apr-16Aug-16Dec-16Apr-17Aug-17Dec-17Apr-18Aug-18Dec-18Apr-19Banking Sector 银行行业10 June 2019 HYPERLINK / Sector Report HYPERLINK / International. HY

32、PERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Banking Sectorlocalareasandservecountiesinthreephaseson 1517Juneand15About1,000county-levelruralcommercialbanks can enjoy the preferential policy and about RMB280 bn in long-term capital will be released, all of which will be used to grant loans to private

33、enterprises and small and micro businesses. In 1-4M19, new RMB loans and new TSF achieved RMB6.8 tn and RMB9.5 tn, up 13.0% and 25.0% respectively. Chinas M1 YoY growth in April 2019 was 2.9%, down 1.7 pts MoM and down 4.3 pts YoY. YoY growth of M2 recorded 8.5%, down 0.1 pts MoM and up 0.2 pts YoY.

34、 Given the reasonably abundant liquidityenvironment,theinterestrateinthemarketdecreasedoverall.AsattheendofMay2019,theaverageShibor(overnight) was 2.19%, down 64 bps As at the end of 1Q19, RMB loans weighted average interest rate of financial institutions was5.69%, up 5 bps YTD and down 22 bps YoY.E

35、xhibit 8: China new RMB loans of financial institutionsExhibit 7: China YoY growth of M1 and M2 and comparison35,000 RMB 00 mn25.0%30,00020.015.025,00010.020,0005.015,0000.010,000-5.05,000-10.00-15.0M1(YoY)M2(YoY)M2-M1(YoY)Source: the Peoples Bank of China, Guotai Junan International.Source: the Peo

36、ples Bank of China. Exhibit 9: growth of total social financinginChinaExhibit 10: MoM growth of total social financing inChina250.0%350.0%300.0%200.0%250.0%200.0%150.0%150.0%100.0%100.0%50.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%0.0%-100.0%-50.0%-150.0%MoM growth of TSF-100.0%Source: the Peoples Bank of ChinaSource: the P

37、eoples Bank of China.Exhibit 11: Major Shibor measures in ChinaExhibit 12: RMB loans weighted average interest rate of financial institutions inChina6.00%6.806.606.406.206.005.805.605.405.205.00%5.004.003.002.001.000.00Shibor(overnight)Shibor(one-week)Shibor(one-month)Source: China Securities Deposi

38、tory and Clearing, Guotai JunanSource: the Peoples Bank of China, Guotai Junan International. HYPERLINK / International. HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Banking Sectorlocalareasandservecountiesinthreephaseson 1517Juneand15About1,000county-levelruralcommercialbanks can enjoy the preferen

39、tial policy and about RMB280 bn in long-term capital will be released, all of which will be used to grant loans to private enterprises and small and micro businesses. In 1-4M19, new RMB loans and new TSF achieved RMB6.8 tn and RMB9.5 tn, up 13.0% and 25.0% respectively. Chinas M1 YoY growth in April

40、 2019 was 2.9%, down 1.7 pts MoM and down 4.3 pts YoY. YoY growth of M2 recorded 8.5%, down 0.1 pts MoM and up 0.2 pts YoY. Given the reasonably abundant liquidityenvironment,theinterestrateinthemarketdecreasedoverall.AsattheendofMay2019,theaverageShibor(overnight) was 2.19%, down 64 bps As at the e

41、nd of 1Q19, RMB loans weighted average interest rate of financial institutions was5.69%, up 5 bps YTD and down 22 bps YoY.Exhibit 8: China new RMB loans of financial institutionsExhibit 7: China YoY growth of M1 and M2 and comparison35,000 RMB 00 mn25.0%30,00020.015.025,00010.020,0005.015,0000.010,0

42、00-5.05,000-10.00-15.0M1(YoY)M2(YoY)M2-M1(YoY)Source: the Peoples Bank of China, Guotai Junan International.Source: the Peoples Bank of China. Exhibit 9: growth of total social financinginChinaExhibit 10: MoM growth of total social financing inChina250.0%350.0%300.0%200.0%250.0%200.0%150.0%150.0%100

43、.0%100.0%50.0%50.0%0.0%-50.0%0.0%-100.0%-50.0%-150.0%MoM growth of TSF-100.0%Source: the Peoples Bank of ChinaSource: the Peoples Bank of China.Exhibit 11: Major Shibor measures in ChinaExhibit 12: RMB loans weighted average interest rate of financial institutions inChina6.00%6.806.606.406.206.005.8

44、05.605.405.205.00%5.004.003.002.001.000.00Shibor(overnight)Shibor(one-week)Shibor(one-month)Source: China Securities Depository and Clearing, Guotai JunanSource: the Peoples Bank of China, Guotai Junan International. Page 4 of 41Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-16Feb-17Apr-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-1

45、7Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Dec-17Feb-18Apr-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Mar-15Jun-15Sep-15Dec-15Mar-16Jun-16Sep-16Dec-16Mar-17Jun-17Sep-17Dec-17Mar-18Jun-18Sep-18Dec-18Mar-19Dec-16Dec-16Feb-17Feb-17Apr-17Apr-17Jun-17Jun-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Aug-17Oct-17Dec-17Feb-1

46、8Feb-18Apr-18Apr-18Jun-18Jun-18Aug-18Oct-18 Dec-18 Feb-19Apr-19Aug-18Oct-18Dec-18Feb-19Apr-19Banking Sector 银行行业10 June 2019 HYPERLINK / Sector Reportassets before the reorganization, they are requiredno HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Banking Sector assets before the reorganization, th

47、ey are requiredno HYPERLINK / See the last page for disclaimer Banking Sector Page 5 of 41We expect that the PBOC will maintain prudent monetary policies and Chinas liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly loose in the rest of 2019. In the China Monetary Policy Report, the First Quarter 201

48、9, the PBOC put forward prudent monetarypolicieswhichaimnotbetoolooseortootight,buttostayadequate,makinganticipatoryandfine-tuningadjustmentsin time in response to changes in economic growth and price dynamics, and keeping liquidity reasonably abundant and market interest rates reasonably stable. Gi

49、ven that the US Federal Reserve interest rate hike has currently ceased, in order to stabilize economic growth, support the financing of small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, and control economic exposure, we expect that the PBOC will maintain prudent monetary policies and that Chinas

50、 liquidity conditions will be neutral and slightly loose in the rest of2019.TheestablishmentofCBSisexpectedtopositivelyaffectthebusinessdevelopmentofrelevantbanksandimprovetheir profitability. On 24 January 2019, in order to improve the liquidity of perpetual bonds of banks (including the non-fixed

51、term capital bonds) and support banks to issue perpetual bonds to supplement their capital, the PBOC decided to establish a central bank bills swap (CBS). Primary dealers in open market operations can use their holdings of perpetual bonds issued by qualified banks to swap them from the PBOC into cen

52、tral bank bills. At the same time, the banks perpetual bonds whose main ratings are not lower than AA are included in the scope of qualified collateral for SLF and re-lending by the PBOC. On 20 February2019,thePBOClaunchedthefirstCBSoperation,withafeerateof0.25%,avolumeofRMB1.5bnandone-yearterm. Wee

53、xpectthefollowinginfluencesfromtheestablishmentofCBS: 1)CBScanimprovemarketliquidityoftheperpetualbondsof banks and enhance the willingness of the market to subscribe for the perpetual bonds of banks, so as to support banks to issue perpetual bonds to replenish their capital, which is expected to po

54、sitively affect the business development of relevant banks and improvetheirprofitability. CBSonlyacceptsperpetualbondsissuedbybankswithatleast RMB200bninassetsattheendofthe latest quarter, which means all mainland listed banks under our coverage will benefit; and 2) the influence on liquidity in the

55、 bankingsystemisexpectedtobeneutralasCBSisofvoucherforvoucheranddoesnotinvolveanymonetarybasetransaction.Transfer of credit assets can be included in the two increases assessment, which is expected to relieve the pressure of achieving the target growth rate of no less than 30% of small and micro loa

56、ns for large banks. On 13 March 2019, the CBIRC announced the Notice on Further Improving the Quality and Efficiency of Financial Services for Small and Micro Enterprises (hereinafter referred to as the Notice). The Notice defined the overall goal of two increases and two controls for banking financ

57、ial institutions in 2019 and implemented differentiated assessments for different types of banking financial institutions. At the same time, the Notice also emphasized the importance of keeping the rate pricing of loans to small and micro enterprises at a reasonable level, and encouraged commercial

58、banks to issue special financial bonds for small and micro enterprises. According to the Notice, the growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans for the five large banks in 2019 should be not less than 30%, but inclusive small and micro loans shifted from the transfer of credit assets can be incl

59、uded in the two increases assessment. As at the end of 2018, the growth rate of inclusive small and micro loans for the banking industry was 21.8%. As large banks can achieve the target growth rate of small and micro loans through transferring credit assets from other banks, we think that pressure f

60、rom the Notice on large banks will not be big. Meanwhile, as small banks usually have a relatively high proportion of small and micro loans and a relatively fast growth rate, small banks can transfer credit assets to other banks and activate credit resources, which can also increase profitability of