降低石化压力的每股收益估计值

1、 cGlobal Research15 February 2019EquitiesChina EnergyAmily GuoAnalyst S1460518050002 HYPERLINK mailto:amily.guo amily.guo+86-10-5832 8845Alex Xu Analyst S1460517090001 HYPERLINK mailto:alex-a.xu alex-a.xu+86-213-866 8841China Refining and Polyester SectorLowering EPS estimates on petrochemical press

2、urePressure on spreads; cutting earnings estimates for mega private refineriesWe lower our regional and China petrochemical spread forecasts due to the expected slowdown in Chinas economic growth and chemical demand growth and pressure from new capacity launches in 2019-21. Based on our new spread f

3、orecasts, we lower our 2018-20E EPS estimates for Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Group by 16-20% and 11-18%, respectively. However, we maintain our Buy ratings on both stocks, as we believe the market is pricing in overly bearish expectations.Trade war clouding polyester outlook; sub-sector growth

4、 may polarize in 2019 In part because of trade friction, we expect polyester demand growth to slow to 6% in 2019/20. Polyester filament yarn (PFY): New capacity will be close to 3mt, but demand growth will slow in 2019, making supply/demand less favourable. PTA: Our estimate that Henglis PTA project

5、 will only begin operation by end-2019 means new capacity will be limited in 2019. Thus, PTA price spreads will improve this year, although meaningful capacity increases will be seen in 2020. PX: Supply will remain tight and profitability will stay strong before the launch of Henglis PX project. How

6、ever, after the launch, the Asia-Pacific PX market could come under pressure. Chinas new PTA capacity could come to the rescue if it launches on schedule in 2020, in our view.Lowering estimates for Asia-Pacific and China petrochemical spreadsLarge-scale supply is concentrated in ethylene derivatives

7、 such as PE and MEG, and we see the market supply expanding. We lower our 2019 spread expectations for these chemicals by 20-56%. After the countercyclical strength in the polyester chain and PX in 2018, we see increased supply risks in 2019-20 due to a wave of Chinese capacity expansion. Refinery m

8、argins remain generally stable, although there are long-term risks.Cutting earnings estimates for refineries; maintain Buy on Tongkun and Hengli We lower our 2020E earnings for Zhejiang Petrochemical (Phase 1) and Hengli Petrochemical to Rmb7.9bn/6.9bn (both have an operating rate of 80%). Tongkun:

9、We estimate 2019/20 net profit of Rmb3.3/4.5bn. We lower our PT by 9% to Rmb18.50. We see the share price slump in Q418 and overly bearish market expectations as an opportunity despite the stocks 27% rebound YTD. Hengli: We estimate 2019/20 net profit of Rmb6.1/10.3bn and lower our PT by 9% to Rmb17

10、.70.Figure 1: Oil refineries earnings estimatesStockTickerRatingPrice targetPriceUp-EPS (revised)EPS % (change)P/EEV/EBITDADividend YieldNewPrevRmb/sside18E19E20E18E19E20E18E19E20E18E19E20E18E19E20EHengli600346.SSBuy17.719.414.3823%0.761.212.05-16% -20% -16%18.911.97.012.79.56.41.7% 2.5% 4.3%Tongkun

11、601233.SSBuy18.520.412.252%1.521.802.44-12% -18% -11%8.06.85.04.44.13.60.8% 1.9% 2.2%SPC600688.SSSell4.14.15.26-22%0.470.370.430%0%0%11.114.112.45.86.75.54.9% 3.9% 4.4%Source: Wind, UBS-S estimates. Note: Stock prices as of 14 February 2019. HYPERLINK / This report has been prepared by UBS Securitie

12、s Co. Limited. This is a translation of a Chinese research note published by UBS Securities Co Ltd on 15 February 2019. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES BEGIN ON PAGE 24. UBSdoes and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be a

13、ware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.China Refining and Polyester SectorUBS-S Research THESIS MAPMOST FAVOREDLEAST FAVOREDTongkun Group, H

14、engli PetrochemicalShanghai PetrochemicalPIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: Do private mega refiners have competitive advantages over large SOE and local refiners? Yes. We believe these advantages include greater economies of scale, a higher Nelson complexity and petrochemical yield, better refining-petrochemical

15、integration, and a focus on cost control. Key risks include a lack of distribution channels, higher oil prices, PX overcapacity, construction execution and a sluggish polyester industry. HYPERLINK /shared/d2efwArf2MHM9y China Refining Sector: Can the boom continue? 12 July 2018Q: Can record refining

16、 profitability be sustained despite high oil prices and overcapacity? Most likely. We believe oil prices around US$60-80/bbl could underpin a comfortable operating environment for refiners. We expect a further extended petrochemical upcycle, which is likely to enhance returns. Finally, we believe th

17、e Government is likely to allow product export quotas to rise, which could prevent domestic product inventory from overbuilding. HYPERLINK /shared/d2efwArf2MHM9y China Refining Sector: Can the boom continue? 12 July 2018Q: Will a demand slowdown and new capacity signal a petrochemical downcycle?Yes.

18、 Chinas petrochemical sector fundamentals may weaken in 2019-21 due to slowing demand and new capacity. We think a turning point for ethylene fundamentals is coming, as ethylene producers face competition inside and outside of China, while the polyester value chain will polarize, as Hengli and Zheji

19、ang Petrochemicals PX projects will weigh on the APAC PX market when they come online. HYPERLINK /shared/d2gwTL6WS79 Shanghai Petrochemical - A: Overvalued, with falling petrochemical earnings 14 February 2019WHATS PRICED IN?Petrochemical shares overall fell significantly in Q418 due to overly beari

20、sh market sentiment as a result of the trade war and slump in oil prices. We believe the market has priced in the bearish expectations.UBS-S VIEWWe lower our estimates for Asia-Pacific and Chinese petrochemical spreads and earnings forecasts for mega private refineries due to the expected slowdown i

21、n Chinas economic growth and chemical demand growth in 2019-21 and pressure from new production capacity. We maintain our Buy ratings on Tongkun Group and Hengli Petrochemical.EVIDENCEPolyester filament yarn (PFY): New capacity will likely near 3mt but demand growth will fall in 2019. PTA: Shengda C

22、hemicals PTA project is less likely to launch. Henglis PTA facility will launch by end- 2019; thus, PTA output could be limited this year, although 2020 will see meaningful capacity launches. PX: Henglis and Rongshengs project launches will bring substantial PX capacity growth.Changes in polyester s

23、upply chain spreadsUS$/tPolyester-PTA&MEG spreadPTA-PX spreadPX-Naphtha spread1,4001,2001,00080060040020012/20123/20136/20139/201312/20133/20146/20149/201412/20143/20156/20159/201512/20153/20166/20169/201612/20163/20176/20179/201712/20173/20186/20189/201812/20180Source: Baiinfo, UBS-S estimatesLower

24、ing estimates for Asian petrochemical spreadsWe update our global petrochemical model to reflect the downward revision to UBSs global GDP growth forecast to 3.7% (down 10bps YoY). Large-scale supply is concentrated in ethylene derivatives such as PE and MEG, and we see the market supply expanding. W

25、e lower our 2019 spread expectations for these chemicals by 20-56%. After the countercyclical strength in the polyester chain and PX in 2018, we see increased supply risks in 2019-20 due to a wave of Chinese capacity expansion.Engineering plastics including PVS and ABS will likely see an increase in

26、 profit, as there is little supply growth. We believe profit from propylene and related derivatives will remain at mid-cycle levels, as the feedstock shift towards ethane has reduced supply growth from large-scale capacity.Figure 2: Asian petrochemical spread estimatesUS$/t201420152016201720182019E2

27、020E2021ENewOld%NewOld%NewOld%OlefinsEthylene-naphtha643671734749700550650-15%650700-7%650725-10%Propylene-naphtha563404410479529400450-11%5005000%450500-10%BD-naphtha5184498401,0678568001,100-27%7751,000-23%7501,000-25%PolyolefinsPE-naphtha756793790744646518650-20%642700-8%642725-11%PE-ethylene1201

28、2667(3)(47)(50)0-00-00-PP-naphtha672639597615640662789-16%8158150%764815-6%PP-propylene9222317412295250325-23%3003000%3003000%AromaticsPX-naphtha44140744341252145035029%35030017%35030017%Benzene-naphtha424246306378267225233-4%25020025%27520038%Polyester ChainMEG-ethylene731084124154100225-56%75100-2

29、5%755050%PTA-naphtha3803343693574844273958%335376-11%360401-10%PTA-PX84617282136125160-22%100175-43%125200-38%PET-PTA-MEG139130118130191125150-17%1201200%120125-4%Styrene ChainSM-(benzene+ethylene)163192171257270275375-27%250275-9%3003000%PS-SM211208228177251250325-23%275350-21%275375-27%Engineering

30、 plasticsABS474498427701655625675-7%625700-11%600650-8%PVC-Ethylene3282842923173053753750%4004000%4254250%Caustic soda306294321500464450-500-500-Source: IHS, PCI, DataStream, UBS estimatesUpdating our China petrochemical product spreads estimatesRefined oil: We estimate gross profit will decline for

31、 gasoline and rise for dieselThe International Maritime Organizations (IMO) new regulations will be beneficial for diesel gross profit in China. As aviation kerosene prices become more market- oriented, the IMO regulations will increase APAC medium distillate spreads and support kerosene gross profi

32、t in China. We estimate gasoline gross profit will decline from 2018s US$501 per ton to US$480/460/450 per ton in 2019/20/21. We expect diesel gross profit to rise over the next three years to US$330/350/370 per ton, while kerosene gross profit will remain flat at US$175 per ton.Figure 3: China petr

33、ochemical spread estimatesUS$/t2010201120122013201420152016201720182019E2020E2021ERefined oil product SourceGasoline-crudeSPC 93# Gasoline-Brent418464560591595669623626501480460450Diesel-crudeSPC 0# Diesel-Brent278275306308303319279307337330350370Kerosene-crudeJet fuel factory price(including tax)-B

34、rent108157208211194132105128173175175180OlefinEthylene-crudeSE Asia CFR-Brent483353401555672710715667634458568568Propylene-crudeKorea FOB-Brent589594488543551396384477512357467417Butadiene-crudeSE Asia CFR-Brent1,3212,1291,5946675534977991,091875793778753Ethylene-naphthaSE Asia CFR-Singapore39929433

35、9494599656684612588438538538Propylene-naphthaKorea FOB-Singapore505535426482478342353421466337437387Butadiene-naphthaSE Asia CFR-Singapore1,2372,0701,5326054794427681,036829773748723PolyolefinPE-naphthaDomestic Yuyao market (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE avg.)-Singapore760669594793859941914864759651786786PE-eth

36、yleneDomestic Yuyao market (LDPE, LLDPE, HDPE avg.)-SE Asia CFR361374255299260285231252171193218218PP-naphthaDomestic Yuyao market-Singapore822780674779877822727747777803953903PP-propyleneDomestic Yuyao market-Korea FOB317245248298399481374326311466516516AromaticPX-naphthaSPC-SingaporeNANA8226944774

37、20449423527456356356Benzene-naphthaEast China-Singapore219180336466389261327394269227252277PolyesterMEG-ethyleneEast China-SE Asia CFR2765083132649916273265256202177177PTA-naphthaEast China-Singapore570737550530370337356359466409317342PTA-PXEast China-SPCNANA56765962628212111085110FDY-PTA-MEGEast Ch

38、ina 68D;24F-EastChina-East China686523367264245189227254241225215215POY-PTA-MEGEast China 150D;48F-EastChina-East China269287182161192142147182199180170170Note: Refined oil product prices are factory prices excluding VAT, but including consumption tax; PP, PE, PX, PTA and other domestic sourced pric

39、es are market prices excluding VATSource: Baiinfo, UBS-S estimatesPolyester value chain: End-user demand growth to slow, supply chain to polarizePFY: New capacity coupled with slower demand growth will lead to less favourable supply/demand. We estimate the FDY spread will fall by US$16/26/26 per ton

40、 to US$225/215/215 per ton in 2019/20/21. The POY spread will decline slightly from 2018s US$199 per ton to US$170-180 per ton.Our estimate that Henglis PTA project will only begin operation by end-2019 means new capacity will be limited in 2019. Thus, PTA price spreads will likely increase this yea

41、r, although there will be meaningful capacity increases in 2020.PX profitability will stay strong in short term. However, after the launch of private refinery projects in China, the Asia-Pacific PX market could come under pressure.Chinas new PTA capacity could come to the rescue if it launches on sc

42、hedule in 2020. We estimate that Chinas PX spread will fall from US$527 per ton to US$456 per ton in 2019 and remain stable at US$356 per ton in 2020-21.Olefins: Ethylene market will come under pressure from both supply and demandChinas demand for plastics grew rapidly in 2018 due to the ban on impo

43、rting plastic waste. The impact of this ban will likely fade in 2019, however, leading to a slowdown in domestic plastics demand growth. Meanwhile, Chinas ethylene sector will enter a new capacity upcycle in the next three years. We expect Chinas 2021 ethylene capacity to be 38.4mtpa, up 13.4mtpa fr

44、om 2018. Given the pressure from both factors, we estimate the ethylene-naphtha spread will fall from US$588 per ton in 2018 to US$438 per ton in 2019 and recover to US$538 in 2020/21.We lower our earnings estimates for private refineriesBased on our estimates for APAC and China petrochemical spread

45、s, we revise our earnings estimates for two private mega refinery projects, as well as for Hengli Petrochemical and Tongkun Group. Please see the company pages for details.Polyester chain coming under pressurePolyester supply chain spreads have fallen since Q418; supply chain is actively reducing in

46、ventoryIn 2017-H118, PFY demand grew 10% YoY, driven by re-stocking, robust demand and strong exports. However, in H218 (especially Q4), PFY demand growth slowed sharply, as textile and apparel exports came under pressure from the China-US trade war. With the import tax imposed by the US of 10%, and

47、 the possibility that it will rise to 25% in the future, uncertainty has arisen over end- market orders, making textile producers reluctant to place PFY orders and leading to sluggish PFY demand in its traditional peak season of September-October. PTA and PFY prices fell significantly in Q418.Figure

48、 4: China PX prices and spreadsFigure 5: China PTA prices and spreadsUS$/t 2,0001,8001,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000US$/t1,0009008007006005004003002001000US$/t 1,4001,2001,0008006004002000US$/t400350300250200150100500-50-1002012201320142015201620172018PX-Naphtha (RHS)PX2012201320142015201620172018

49、PTA-PX (RHS)PTASource: Bai Info, UBS-S. Prices exclude value-added taxSource: Bai Info, UBS-S. Prices exclude value-added taxIn the supply chain, only PX maintained relatively high earnings. The PTA price fell precipitously from US$1,191/t at end-August 2018 to US$767/t at the end of last year. The

50、PTA-PX spread fell from US$425/t to US$102/t. The PX spread remained high, accounting for most of the profit in the supply chain.Figure 6: China FDY prices and spreadsFigure 7: China POY prices and spreads US$/t 3,0002,5002,0001,5001,0005000US$/t1,4001,2001,0008006004002000US$/t 2,5002,0001,5001,000

51、5000US$/t70060050040030020010002010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019FDY spread (RHS)FDY20102012201420162018POY spread (RHS)POY Source: Bai Info, UBS-S. Prices exclude value-added taxSource: Bai Info, UBS-S. Prices exclude value-added taxThe polyester value chain started active de-stockin

52、g in Q418. PTA inventory fell 25% compared with early November, while FDY inventory fell 25% and PET inventory 45% in the same period. The period around Chinese New Year is usually the low season for the domestic polyester industry, as downstream weaving companies suspend production during this time

53、. We forecast supply chain spreads will improve after March due to stronger seasonal demand and lower inventory.Figure 8: China PTA inventoryFigure 9: China polyester inventory2,5002,0001,5001,0005000China PTA inventory (kt)China polyester: days of inventory302520151051/20164/20167/201610/20161/2017

54、4/20177/201710/20171/20184/20187/201810/20181/20191/20164/20167/201610/20161/20174/20177/201710/20171/20184/20187/201810/20181/20190 Source: SCI99, UBS-SSource: SCI99, UBS-SFigure 10: China PET inventoryChina PET chips: days of inventory in East China121086420-21/20163/20165/20167/20169/201611/20161

55、/20173/20175/20177/20179/201711/20171/20183/20185/20187/20189/201811/20181/2019-4Source: SCI99, UBS-SPolyester demand growth is slowing: China-US trade war is dampening downstream apparel and textile exportsDownstream apparel and textile exports have come under pressure from the China-US trade war.

56、China is among the worlds top exporters of apparel and textiles, exporting US$158.1bn in apparel and US$110.5bn in textile yarns and products in 2017. The US was the largest buyer that year, taking in US$30.1bn of China-supplied apparel and US$42.5bn of its textile products, or 19%/38% of Chinas tot

57、al apparel and textile exports. If the US raises tariffs, Chinas apparel firms would likely be left with fewer orders, falling prices, inventory pile-ups and higher risk of bad debt. Meanwhile, US orders may simply shift to nearby Vietnam, where supporting industries are well-developed, production c

58、osts are lower and labour is ample, posing downside risk to China export orders.In Q2 and Q318, Chinas exports surged as downstream firms rushed out orders ahead of a possible tariff hike. Chinas July/Aug/Sept exports to the US were up 11%/53%/58% YoY for apparel and 12%/42%/44% YoY for textile prod

59、ucts due to this effect, causing demand to move forward. Exports and demand from downstream firms are now under pressure due to the earlier front-loading, lack of resolution of the US-China trade dispute, and potential further tariff hikes.We expect new capacity of nearly 3mt in 2019, while demand g

60、rowth will slow to 6%. This could make supply/demand less favourable. For PFY demand, a key factor will be how the trade war pans out.Figure 11: Downstream apparel and textile exports to the US rose significantly in Q380%60%40%20%0%-20%-40%-60%ApparelTextile & textile productsSource: WindFigure 12: