美股-投资策略-微移动：为“智慧城市”提供快速、廉价和良好的解决方案

1、SIgnaTURE #disruptivemobility #energyrevolution #transatlanticEquityResearch20 March2019Sustainable & Thematic InvestingMicromobility:Fast,Cheapand GoodSolutionforSmartCity planners need to develop smarter cities that can transport an additional 2.7bn urban commuters by 2050. Bythemid-2020s,1.1tnpas

2、sengermiles(4%ofglobaltotal) could switch to micro, electric vehicles for urban trips below five miles, representing an $800bn revenue opportunity for micromobilityoperators.Sustainable & Thematic InvestingKristina ChurchInvestment SciencesRyan PreclawBen McSkelly+44 (0)20 3134 2199+1 212 412 2249+4

3、4 (0)20 3555 3606 HYPERLINK mailto:kristina.church kristina.church HYPERLINK mailto:ryan.preclaw ryan.preclaw HYPERLINK mailto:ben.mcskelly ben.mcskellyBarclays, UKBCI, USBarclays, UKBarclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its ailiates does and seeks to do business with companies coveredinitsresearchrep

4、orts.asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhavea conflictofinterestthatcouldaecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthis reportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.This research report has been prepared in whole or in part by equity research analysts based outside

5、 the US who are not registered/qualified as research analysts with FInRa.Please see analyst certifications and important disclosures beginning on page 84.CONTENTS HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 MICROMOBILITY: FAST, CHEAP AND GOOD SOLUTION FOR HYPERLINK l _bookmark0 SMARTCITIES3 HYPERLINK l _bookmark1 EXECUT

6、IVESUMMARY4 HYPERLINK l _bookmark2 THETHESISFORMICROMOBLITY:FASTER,CHEAPER,GOOD8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark3 Micromobilityisfaster8 HYPERLINK l _bookmark4 Micromobilityischeaper11 HYPERLINK l _bookmark5 Micromobilityisgood12 HYPERLINK l _bookmark6 Micromobilityisalreadybooming16 HYPERLINK l _bookmark7 Th

7、eopportunityislarge18 HYPERLINK l _bookmark13 Risksremainthatmicromobilitywillbeonlyaniche32 HYPERLINK l _bookmark14 HOWTOINVESTINMICROMOBILITY39 HYPERLINK l _bookmark15 Infrastructure40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark16 EuropeanProperty40 HYPERLINK l _bookmark17 Leisure44 HYPERLINK l _bookmark18 USandEuropea

8、nAutos45 HYPERLINK l _bookmark19 EuropeanandUSSemis47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark20 Payments47 HYPERLINK l _bookmark21 Internet&E-Commerce48 HYPERLINK l _bookmark22 FoodRetail49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark23 Media49 HYPERLINK l _bookmark24 Oil50 HYPERLINK l _bookmark25 BusinessServicestheAA52 HYPERLINK l _bookm

9、ark26 Sustainable&ThematicGenZ53 HYPERLINK l _bookmark27 Otherinvestmentopportunityinmicromobilitytoday54 HYPERLINK l _bookmark29 DEEPDIVE:MICROMOBILITY10159 HYPERLINK l _bookmark30 Whatismicromobility?59 HYPERLINK l _bookmark33 Formfactorsareevolving60 HYPERLINK l _bookmark34 Legalconsiderationsfor

10、micromobility61 HYPERLINK l _bookmark36 Chinaisleadingthewayonsharedmobilityandpersonallyownedmicro-vehicles66 HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 SEAsiaalreadyhasstrongpenetrationof2-wheelersandride-hailcouldthisbodewellfor HYPERLINK l _bookmark37 electricmicromobility? HYPERLINK l _bookmark38 USdocklessmicrom

11、obilityhasarrivedanditsnotjustaWestCoastphenomenon75 HYPERLINK l _bookmark40 MMisalsopopularinLatAmdespitelowbankedrates78 HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 MiddleEastandAfricapotentiallyripeformicromobilityadoption,albeitwithlowelectric HYPERLINK l _bookmark41 infrastructureasyet HYPERLINK l _bookmark42 Euro

12、pebikeshareschemeshavebeeninoperationformanyyears79 HYPERLINK l _bookmark43 APPENDIX1NATIONALHOUSEHOLDTRANSPORTSURVEY82 HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 APPENDIX2ADDITIONALDETAILSONBARCLAYSPROPRIETARY HYPERLINK l _bookmark44 MODELMicromobility: Fast, Cheap and Good Solution for Smart CitiesMicromobility(tran

13、sportusingelectric-poweredpersonal-sizedvehicleslikee-scooters ande-bikes)couldbeaniPhonemomentforpersonalmobility.30tnpassengermiles aretravelledperyearglobally.60%ofcurrenttripsarebelow5miles.Weexpect1.1tnof thosemilestoswitchtomicromobility(MM),whichimplies$800bnglobalrevenue,with thechangehappen

14、ingbecausecomparedtofull-sizeautos,MMis:Faster. Inhigh-trafficcities,micromobilitycanmovepeoplefasterthanthecurrent averagespeedof10mph.Cheaper.Inthedensestcities,thecostpermileofane-scooterisaslittleasathirdthe costofconventionalautooptions(ride-hailing,drivingapersonalvehicle).Good.Itsbetterforthe

15、environment,withacarbonfootprintpermileof28gvs292g forafull-sizevehicle.Itsbetterforcityplanning,takesuplessspacethanforroadsand parking,andcomplementsmasstransit.Theformfactorscanbemorevaried,andwe expectaproliferationofchoices.Itisafunwaytogetaround.Micromobilityisalreadybooming,withagrowthcurveev

16、enfasterthanride-hailing (Figure1).Atthisrate,weexpecttheretobeinvestmentimplicationsformanysectors, withthemostacuteimpactonInfrastructure,Property,LeisureandAutos.FIGURE 1Micromobility has grown even faster than ride-hailingSource: Barclays Research, company dataEXECUTIVE SUMMARYFIGURE 2What is mi

17、cromobility?Source: Barclays ResearchFIGURE 3Sector implicationsSource: Barclays Research, *ICE = Internal Combustion Car, APM = Alternative Payment MethodsFIGURE 4Barclays covered stocks potentially impacted by higher global micromobility uptakeimpacted Integrated manufacturers could see boosted in

18、frastructure spend initially, but InfrastructureLafargeHolcim, Buzzi Unicem, potentially lower material intensity. Contractors beneficiaries from Vicat, Vinci, Eiffageinfrastructuredesign&building,especiallythosegearedtosmartcities.PropertyGecina,IcadeGecina couldseeanincreaseinrentalvalues givenits

19、 largeofficecatchment area. Icadelooks set to benefit from improved mobility infrastructure in Greater ParisMerlin, GVC,PaddyPower,Potentially increased footfall at Lego Discovery Centres/Sealife and at retail gaming LeisureWilliam Hill,SSP, Compass,companies. Concessions at stations could from comm

20、uters earlier arrival.Sodexo, Elior, Telepizza,Catering &restaurantscouldloseouttofaster,cheaperfooddeliveryappsVapianoEU &USAutosFord,GM,VW,BMW,DAI,e-scootersharing:Ford,DAI-BMW Conti,ValeoMMhardware:GM,VW,ContiInfineon, ON Semi, Renesas,EU &USTechToshiba, STMicro,Cypress,hardware-SemisDialog Semi,

21、 Silicon Increased chip and silicon contentLabs, Texas Instruments,Microchip, NXPStripe, Wirecard, Klarna,PaymentsWorldpayGlobalShift from to technology should alternative payment method PayPal, Square, Alipay, providersPagSeguroFood delivery: increased utilisation and profitabilityInternet&E-Delive

22、ryHero, JustEat,Online pureplays could see advantages if bricks-and-motor retailers start to commerceT, ASOS,providesame-daydeliverybut may fromanacceleratedchannelshift online.Boohoo, ZalandoZalandohas a visiontothetechbackboneandtopoftheconsumer inthisworld.MediaJCDecauxIncumbent bikeshare operato

23、r. Existing relationship with city regulators. toflexible to protect against new entrantscar mileagecouldseebreak-downutilisationfor theAA. Alonger-term Business ServicestheAAshifttoTaaScoulddecreaseAAmembership,unless AApivots moretoand(TaaS increased vehicle utilisation)Source: Barclays Research1

24、trillion (PMT) reasons were so excited about micromobility (MM) electric, connected and sharedWeseemicromobility(e-bikes,e-scooters,e-velomobilesandanyotherlow-speedelectricvehicles,LSEV)asthetriggerforan iPhonemomentinurbanpersonalandcommercialtransportation.Itisalow-enddisruption,somanyoftheincumb

25、entsmay notseeitcoming,andeveniftheydo,maynotfeelthreatenedbyit.Buttheyshould.Therewere3.3trillionpassengermiles travelled(PMT)intheUSin2017,30trillionglobally.60%ofthesetripswerelessthan5milesinlengthandyetin developedcountriesmorethan70%ofthoseshort-distancetripsweretakenbycarandonly2%bymicro-vehi

26、cle(mainly bicycle).Butwhyusea1,500kgvehicletotransportapassengerloadof100kg?Urbanareasarebecomingdenserand morecongested,withaveragespeedinmanycitiesbelow10mph.WiththeUNforecasting7bnpeoplewillliveinurban areasby2050(70%growth),howwillcitiesdealwiththisadditionaldemandforroadspaceandadditionalpress

27、ureonclean air?Weseethepotentialfor1.1tnofthe18tn20mph)shouldappealtomanycommuters.Onaspeedto averagecost/milebasis,wethinkconsumerswillembracemicromobilityasanenablerof fastercommutetimesincongestedurbanareas.Arecentstudy2analysingNewYorksopensourceddatafortaxiandride-hailtrips,aswell asdockedbikes

28、haring,foundthat,inNYC,abikewasfasterthanataxiformorethan50% ofpeaktimejourneys.ThesameislikelytobetrueinmanyEuropeancitiestoo.For instance,inLondontheaveragespeedinthecentreoftownisonly6milesperhour,bute- scooterande-bikescanreachspeedsof15mphandabove.FIGURE 5Wethinkspeedisoneofthegreatestbenefitso

29、fmicromobility,especiallyifurbaninfrastructureisadaptedtoimprovesafetycost/mile($)AffordabilitySpeed$7.0Taxi/TNC*$6.0Ridehail/taxi NYCTransit*Walking*$5.0$4.0$3.0$2.0dockedbikeshare$1.0Buse-scooterpersonalcarWalk$0.00mph2mph4mph6mph8mph10mph12mph14mph16mphSource: Barclays Research, Uber, Lyft, Yello

30、w taxi, Citi Bike, JUMP, Bird, NY Transit, AAAThismatters,becauseincitiesthathavethehighestusageofbicycles(thetraditionalmode oftransportationthathasthemostincommonwithmicromobility),higherspeedisoften citedasacriticaladvantageforcycling.InpollsofCopenhagen,forexample,speedisthe mostcitedreasontopre

31、ferbicycling,givenalmostthreetimesmoreoftenthanthenext mostpopularanswer(Figure6)2 When are Citi Bikes Faster than Taxis in New York, Todd W Schneider, 26 Sept 2017FIGURE 656%ofinhabitantsinCopenhagenstatedspeedasthemainreasonforusingabicycle (withcostcitedbyonly6%)costenvironmentconvenience6%1%18%e

32、xercise 19%speed56%Source: HYPERLINK http:/www.cycling-embassy.dk/ www.cycling-embassy.dkUrbanizationislikelytocontinueincreasingaveragepopulationdensity AccordingtotheUNPopulationdivision,by20502.7bnadditionalpeoplewilldwellinurban areas (Figure7).FIGURE 7Urbanisationisaglobaltrendby2050closeto70%o

33、ftheglobalpopulationare expectedtoliveinurbanareasUrban%Rural%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%20002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Source: United Nations Population Division, Barclays ResearchTherearealreadysubstantialdemandsonresourcesincities.Weexpecttheprocessof globalurbanisationtoputevengreaterstra

34、insonurbanmobilitydemands.Areport publishedinFebruaryentitled HYPERLINK /news/2019/01/release-new-research-shows-challenges-upward-and-outward-urban-expansion-unprecedented UpwardandOutwardGrowth:ManagingUrbanExpansion HYPERLINK /news/2019/01/release-new-research-shows-challenges-upward-and-outward-

35、urban-expansion-unprecedented forMoreEquitableCitiesintheGlobalSouth,bytheWorldResourceInstitute,arguesthat citiesthattrytotacklethegrowthinaregulatedfashiontoavoidtheeffectsofsprawl,will farebetterthanthosethatallowprivate,developer-ledgrowth.Thereportfoundthatcity dwellersaccesstobasicservices,suc

36、haswater,sewageandpavedroads,dropssharply3 miles$12.0YellowcabRide-hailUS$10.0PersonalCar(urban)Dockedbike$8.0 Docklesse-bikeDocklesse-scooter$6.0$4.0$2.0$0.012345678910One-way urban commute MileageSource: Barclays Research, AAA, NY Transit, NY Taxi, Uber, Lyft, San Francisco yellow cab, Lime, Bird,

37、 Ford GoBike, JUMP, Taxify, Neuron, CitiMicromobility isgoodMicromobilityisgoodforcityplanning,takinguplessspaceforroadsandparking,and complementingmasstransit.Theformfactorscanbemorevaried,andweexpecta proliferationofvehicleofferingsfordifferentpurposes.Itisafunwaytogetaround.Its good for the envir

38、onmentMicromobility has a carbon footprint per mile of 28g vs 292g for a full-size vehicle.3Its good for urban planningWeexpectthaturbanplannerswillincreasinglyseemicromobilityasanimportantpartof thetransportationmixincities.Wehavealreadyseenalotofenthusiasmforbicyclesharing schemes,withaprogramnowo

39、peratinginmostlargecities(andmanymid-andsmall- sizedonestoo).Althoughtherearesomechallengesinadaptingrulesandinfrastructureto micromobility,thebigadvantageisthatithasahighspeedandrequireslesstotalspace (andlessspecializedinfrastructure)thanalmostanyothermodeoftransit.FIGURE 13Withminimalinfrastructu

40、reinvestment,citiescoulddecidetorepurposecarparkingspacestomicromobilityspaces,todeal withthesidewalkclutterissuesoffree-floating,docklessvehiclesandatthesametimedetercarusageSource: Barclays ResearchMicromobilitycanhelpcutcongestionTheEuropeanCommissionestimatesthat1%ofGDPinEuropeislosttocongestion

41、and theissueisbecomingjustasproblematicglobally.Citiesarealreadygrapplingwithhowto dealwithpeaktransportationdemand,evenbeforeurbanpopulationsrisefurther.Limited capacitycausescongestionbutincreasesincapacitywouldbetooexpensivetoprovideand leavetheadditionalcapacityidleatnon-peaktimes.Onesolutionmig

42、htbetoencourage fewer commutes and more flexible working styles, but another might be to allow micromobilitytosupportsomeofthesepeaks.3 “Electric scooters battle to prove green worth”, FT, 12 March 2019FIGURE 14Recurring congestion follows a similar theme in many cities on weekdays, due to fixed wor

43、king patternsCongestionUnusedCapacityMorningPeakAfternoonCongestionUnusedCapacity Source: Barclays Research, TrafficCapacityMarchettisConstantarguesthatonaveragecommutersarewillingtotravelforuptoone hour/day (for further detail see the Property section of the report on pages 39f). If commuterscouldg

44、ettotheirworkplacefaster,viamicromobility,theymightbeableto changetheirhomelocation.Anotheroptioncitiesareconsideringtoeasecongestioniswhethertorestrictaccessfor cars.FIGURE 15Many local jurisdictions have already started to discuss access restrictions for carsLocal20242025203020352040Athens Aucklan

45、dBalearicIslands BarcelonaCape Town Chinese TaipeiLondonLosAngeles MadridMexicoCityMilan ParisQuito Rome Seattle StockholmBrussels DieselrestrictionsICEsalesbanFossil-Fuel-FreeStreetsICEaccessrestrictionsSource: Company data, IEA, Barclays ResearchMicromobility could enable cities to reinvent inner

46、city spaceInmotorizedcitiesintheUS,30%ofthesurfaceisdevotedtoroadswhileanother20% isusedforoff-streetparking.InWesternEurope,roadsaccountfor15-20%ofurbanspace.Indevelopingcountriesthisfigureisabout10%(6%onaverageforChinesecitiesbut growingfastduetomotorization).Inmanyglobalcities,only10-20%ofurbansp

47、aceisreservedforpedestrians4andeven lessforgreenspaces.FIGURE 16Many global cities are looking to ban cars from the inner city areaCities starting to ban cars Brief summaryOsloPlanstobanallcars itscitycentreandreplace milesofroadspreviouslydominatedcarswithbikelanes.OsloMadridPlanstobancars acresof

48、itscitycentre withanaimtodailycarusage toHamburgPlanstobuildagreennetworkofconnectedspacescoveringofHamburgby Alsoplanstomakewalkingand bikingitsdominant oftransport.HamburgPlanstocarbon-neutralby Currentlyhasthanmilesofbikelaneswithoverhalfof thepopulationbikingtoworkday.ParisPlanstodoublebike lane

49、sandlimitselect toelectriccarsby Hadinstatedacar-freeSundaysrule inApriltheultralowemission(ULEZ)replacescongestionchargingandwillstopolddirtyvehicles theThewillbeexpandedinMost streets that surround Brussels city square, stock exchange and Rue Neuve (a shopping centre) are pedestrian-only.The roads

50、 make up the second-largest car-free zone in Europe behind Copenhagen and looking for more options.BerlinPlanstobuilda bikesuper-highwayswhichwilleachstretchatleast wideand cars. ThecitybeganconstructioninBerlinHelsinkiPlans to make cars not imposing bans developing and deploying mobility so effecti

51、ve that ownership will be as HelsinkiHasbannedcarscityOver ofcyclepathstrailsthroughthecitywiththe EuropeanCyclists Federationestimatingthathalfofallcityjourneys takeplaceon2wheels.SanSanof Market Street, one of the busiest boulevards. Construction of first phase started early 2018.New YorkStripsofl

52、andsinpopularareaslikeTimesSquare,HeraldSquareandMadisonSquareParkareNew YorkMexicoIn theprohibitedaportionofcarsdrivingintothecitycentretwodays workandtwo Saturdays Mexicohour.ChengduBogotaThecityhasovermilesofbike-onlylanesalongwithaprogramwithcertainbansdrivingduringpeaktraffic Planstodesignaresi

53、dentialareathat iteasiertowalkthandrive Onlyhalfoftheroadswillallowhour.Chengduvehicles. Zoning issues may delay the deadline.Source: Company statistics, press reports, Barclays ResearchWhy is so much space in cities given to the car?Publictransitconsumesonaverage10timeslessspacethanindividualtransp

54、ortationMostcitiesgloballydevotelessthan10%thespacetobicyclesthattheydotocarsCitizensinAmsterdamhave12xthebikelanesofthoseinLondonorLA(andinHelsinki 23x)butthecarstilltakesup2.5xand1.8xthespaceofthebike,respectively4 Transportation and the Urban Form, Dr Jean-Paul RodrigueMillions of m2Millions of m

55、2FIGURE 17Eveninthemostpro-bicyclecities,AmsterdamandHelsinki,thebikeisgivenonly40%and54%,respectively,ofthespaceof thecar.Insomecities,particularlyintheUS,thispercentagedropsto4%.InJakartaitislessthan1%.120.0Mobility space bycity60.0Bike Space40.0Rail Space20.0Car Space0.0Source: Moovel Labs What t

56、he street!?, McKinseyCouldmicromobilityencouragelowercarusageandthereforeenablecitiestodevote lessspacetothecarandmoretoparksandgreenspaces?Wethinkso.A switch in urban space requirements could have wide-reaching implicationsfor developers. Currently some sites are difficult/expensive to develop beca

57、use the developerwouldberequiredtofundnewroads.Butiftheroadsystemwereusedmore efficiently,byalargernumberofsmallervehicles,infrastructurespendingmightreduce.FIGURE 18Cities currently devote the majority of their space to the car, and little to the pedestrian or green spacesLos AngelesWashingtonHoust

58、on PhoenixMemphisBuiltupTorontoRoadsNewYorkParksBeunos Aires0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%Source: Micromobility can aid transit usage and provide first/last-mile solutionsInmanycitiesgloballytransitusageisfalling(asaresultofbothride-hailuptakeand increasedvehiclemilestravelledbypersonalcar).Given

59、heavyinvestmentsintransitinfrastructureandalsoitsperformance(whenfully utilized)onbothaspaceandspeedbasis,ifmicromobilityoperatorscanpersuadecities thatmicro-vehiclesareaviablefirst-andlast-milesolutiontoenablemoreseamlessly integratedmobility,wethinkmanycitiesarelikelytoembracethemode.FIGURE 19Onas

60、pace/personbasis,asingle-occupancycaristhe worst use of cityspace706050403020100FIGURE 20Performance index (speed/space) shows transit remains the most efficient option, although utilization rates are importantCarwith1person1/3fullbusCyclist FullyoccupiedFull1/3fullPedestrianFullrailSpace per person