根据甜菜种植状况-2020年美国的制糖产量会略高

1、Beet Sugar Production Raised for Both 2018/19 and 2019/20 Based on Higher Forecast Yield of Current CropSugar production in the United States for 2019/20 is projected to total 9.138 million short tons, raw value (STRV). This is a 24,000-STRV increase from Mays initial projection and would be a 2.1-p

2、ercent increase from 2018/19 estimates, if realized.Table 1: U.S. sugar: supply and use, by fiscal year (Oct./Sept.), June 2019Items2017/182018/19(estimate)2019/20(forecast)2017/182018/19(estimate)2019/20(forecast) HYPERLINK / US1,000 Short tons, raw value1,000 Metric tons, raw valueBeginning stocks

3、1,8762,0081,5261,7021,8221,384Total production9,2938,9489,1388,4308,1178,290Beet sugar5,2794,9205,1544,7894,4634,675Cane sugar4,0144,0283,9853,6413,6543,615Florida1,9832,00520511,7991,8191,861Louisiana1,8621,8751,8001,6891,7011,633Texas169148134153134121Hawaii000000Total imports3,2772,8753,2192,9732

4、,6082,920Tariff-rate quota imports1,6631,5381,3811,5091,3951,253Other program imports326350350296318318Non-program imports1,2879871,4881,1688951,350Mexico1,2238971,4181,1108131,286High-duty649070588264Total supply14,44513,83113,88313,10512,54712,594Total exports17035351543232Miscellaneous82007500Del

5、iveries for domestic use12,18512,27012,32011,05411,13111,177Transfer to sugar-containing productsfor exports under re-export program110120120100109109Transfer to polyhydric alcohol, feed, other alcohol282525252323Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC) sale for ethanol, other000000Deliveries for domestic

6、 food and beverage use12,04812,12512,17510,93011,00011,045Total use12,43812,30512,35511,28311,16311,208Ending stocks2,0081,5261,5281,8221,3841,386Private2,0081,5261,5281,8221,3841,386Commodity Credit Corporation (CCC)000000Stocks-to-use ratio16.1412.4012.3716.1412.4012.37Source: USDA, Economic Resea

7、rch Service, Sugar and Sweetener Outlook.Beet sugar production is projected to total 5.154 million STRV for 2019/20a 40,000 STRV increase from the previous month due to a higher sugarbeet yield than previously expected. Beet sugar production for 2018/19 is also raised from the May estimate, totaling

8、 4.920 million STRVor 10,000 STRV higher. HYPERLINK / USTable 2: Beet sugar production projection calculation, 2018/19 and 2019/202014/152015/162016/172017/182018/192018/192019/202019/20MayJuneMayJuneSugarbeet production (1,000 short tons) 1/31,28535,37136,88135,32533,14533,14533,55633,916Sugarbeet

9、shrink 2/5.4%6.5%8.3%7.3%5.0%5.0%6.5%6.5%Sugarbeet sliced (1,000 short tons)29,59533,06633,83432,74231,48831,48831,37531,712Sugar extraction rate from slice14.6%14.6%13.7%15.2%14.8%14.8%14.6%14.6%Sugar from beets slice (1,000 STRV)4,3254,8204,6434,9704,6634,6634,5754,624Sugar from molasses (1,000 ST

10、RV) 2/341380352368368368368368Crop-year sugar production (1,000 STRV) 3/4,6675,2014,9955,3385,0315,0314,9434,992August-September sugar production (1,000 STRV)461688606715655655502511August-September sugar production forecast (1,000 STRV)688606715655502511633633Sugar from imported beets (1,000 STRV)

11、4/-33334040Fiscal year sugar production (1,000 STRV)4,8935,1195,1035,2794,9104,9205,1145,154Notes: 1/ USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service. 2/ Projections based on processor forecasts published by USDA, Farm Service Agency. 3/ August-July basis. 4/ Sugar from imported beets split out for p

12、rojections only, included in total once full crop-year slice is recorded. They are incorporated into total production in historical data.Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board.Challenging planting conditions have been persistent throughout the Eastern sugarbeet-

13、growing States, in particular Minnesota, North Dakota, and Michigan. Total planting in the United States lagged behind the previous years pace and the 5-year average pace for nearly the entire planting seasonparticularly during critical planting period from the 3rd Sunday in April (week ending April

14、 21, 2019) through the 3rd Sunday in May (week ending May 19, 2019).Western growing regions that predominantly use irrigated water management systems largely went through the planting season at a normal pacemost notably in Idaho, the second-largest sugarbeet-producing State in the country. The Easte

15、rn regions of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes were forced to delay planting longer than usual and planted much of their crop in a tight window later in the season. Planting in Minnesota and North Dakota was delayed, including in the important Red River Valley growing region, but was able to make s

16、trong progress by Week20. Michigans planting pace remained well behind the average pace through the duration of the season, however.Figure 1United States total sugarbeet planting progress, 2000 to 20191009080Percent Planted706050403020100MarchMarchMarchApril 7,April 14, April 21, April 28,May 5,May

17、12, May 19, May 26,June 217,24,31,201920192019201920192019201920192019201920192019Range201820195-Year AverageSource: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.Figure 2Minnesota sugarbeet planting progress, 2000 to 20191009080Percent Planted706050403020100MarchMarchMarchApril 7,April 14, April 2

18、1, April 28,May 5,May 12, May 19, May 26,June 217,201924,201931,2019201920192019201920192019201920192019 HYPERLINK / USRangeRange201820195-Year AverageSource: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.Figure 3North Dakota sugarbeet planting progress, 2000 to 20191009080Percent Planted7060504030

19、20100MarchMarchMarchApril 7,April 14, April 21, April 28,May 5,May 12, May 19, May 26,June 217,201924,201931,2019201920192019201920192019201920192019RangeRange201820195-Year AverageSource: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.Figure 3Idaho sugarbeet planting progress, 2000 to 20191009080Pe

20、rcent Planted70605040302010017,24,31,201920192019201920192019201920192019201920192019RangeRange201820195-Year AverageMarchMarchMarchApril 7,April 14, April 21, April 28,May 5,May 12, May 19, May 26,June 2 HYPERLINK / USSource: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service.Figure 3Michigan sugarbeet

21、 planting progress, 2000 to 20191009080Percent Planted706050403020100MarchMarchMarchApril 7,April 14, April 21, April 28,May 5,May 12, May 19, May 26,June 217,201924,201931,2019201920192019201920192019201920192019 HYPERLINK / USRangeRange201820195-Year AverageSource: USDA, National Agricultural Stat

22、istics Service.Cold, wet conditions have led to a slow pace of planting, planting delays, and replanting in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes regions. While some of these impacts may be mitigated by increased acreage and good moisture levels for established sugarbeets, relationships between data on

23、sugarbeet planting and production are factored into the current forecasts.The June WASDE forecasts reflect that sugarbeet growers were expected to plant 1.120 million acres of sugarbeetsa slight 0.6-percent increase from the previous years plantings. These levels were established by the National Agr

24、icultural Statistics Services (NASS) March Prospective Plantings report. The data are based on intentions before poor weather conditions could have been considered or accounted for. Reports from sugarbeet processors, particularly in the affected Eastern regions, are that some acres have been very la

25、te to be planted, may not be planted with sugarbeets, or may be prevented from planting at all. This is offset, however, with reports of replanted acres, acres coming into sugarbeets from other delayed crops, and sugarbeet cooperatives adjusting members planting allotments to account for affected ac

26、res and the potential for lower yields. The next significant update for this report is the NASS Acreage report on June 30, which will provide a survey-based update on planted acres of sugarbeets and the first forecast for harvested area. Prior to the Acreage report, it is assumed that the ratio betw

27、een planted and harvested area remains consistent with the past 5 years. HYPERLINK / USYield forecasts for the current crop are estimated at 30.8 short tons per acre for the June projection. This is slightly higher than the previous months projection of 30.5 percent and accounts for the changes in t

28、he outlook for beet sugar production in this months WASDE. The previous months yield forecast was based on the planting progress through the 1st Sunday of May, which was the latest available data at the time of the May WASDE publication.The first NASS forecasts for the sugarbeet crops yield are not

29、due until August. In the meantime, an adjusted trend-yield is used to project 2019/20 beet sugar production. The trend is adjusted for planting progress, as strong statistical evidence shows that yields are related to planting. In order to determine the best forecast yield, regression models for sev

30、eral weeks of planting were done. The regression models looked at sugarbeet crop years starting in 2000 through 2018. Yield is estimated based on a time trend to capture technological and management advancements; an adjustment beginning in 2008 to take into account the introduction of new management

31、 tools, including varieties of seed that utilize biotechnology; and the weighted planting progress for Minnesota, North Dakota, Idaho, and Michigan at various weeks as reported by NASS. The exception is that one model does not control for planting progress and simply forecasts based on time trends.T

32、able 3: Sugarbeet yield regression parameters, controlling planting progressObservations:19ModelNot controlled1st Sunday of May2nd Sunday of May3rd Sunday of MayR-square0.8080.8700.8850.855ParameterCoefficient 1/Intercept20.4*17.8*16.2*14.3*Time trend0.596*0.514*0.505*0.529*4-State planting progress

33、-0.036*0.052*0.066*Post-2008-0.0771.2691.2750.981Notes: Modeled data estimates from 2000 to 2018 sugarbeet crops. Planting progress from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Services weekly Crop Progress report.1/ * = Significant at the 90% level, * = Significant at the 95% level, *= Significant at

34、 the 99% level. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service and Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee.The first model, which does not control for planting progress, has an R-square parameter of 0.808. This can be interpreted to mean that about 81 percent of the variation seen in yields can be accoun

35、ted for by time trend variables. While not a poor result, the models controlling for planting progress account for an additional 6 to 8 percent of the variation in a crops yield. The remaining unaccounted for variations are attributed to other factors, including growing conditions during the summer

36、and harvest conditions in the autumn that cannot be accurately anticipated at this time. HYPERLINK / USThe regressions indicate that the planting progress for the 2nd Sunday of May seems to have the strongest explanatory power of final yield results. By 3rd Sunday of May, the R-squared begins to dec

37、line, likely due in part to the fact that there is less variation in historical planting progress. In other words, both good and poorly performing crops have been mostly planted by late May. The forecast of 30.8 tons per acre is based on the 4-State weighted average planting progress of 63 percent f

38、or May 12, 2019.Figure 6Yields and planting progress, sugarbeets, 2000 to 201935100339031802970Short tons per acrePercent276025502340213019201710200020012002200320042005200620072008200920102011201220132014201520162017201820191504-State planting progress (Week 19)National yieldSource: USDA, National

39、Agricultural Statistics Service.Early-season beet sugar production is production that predominantly comes from the 2019/20 sugarbeet crop that is harvested and produced before the beginning of the October 1 fiscal yearand is therefore accounted for in 2018/19 production. The amount of production tha

40、t comes from this portion of the harvest is typically dictated by the overall performance and size of the sugarbeet crop, as well as planting progress, which can determine how long the sugarbeet crop has to develop and mature by the time early harvest in late-August and September occurs. Additionall

41、y, in recent years, early-season production has become a management tool for utilizing existing processing capacities as sugarbeet production has become larger. HYPERLINK / USThe forecast for early-season planting at this time of the year is typically done through statistical modeling, using nationa

42、l yields as a measure of overall production and planting progress in North Dakota and Minnesota (which account for the majority of early-season production) as a metric of the overall availability of mature sugarbeets. As with yields, several models were run with various planting progress weeks to de

43、termine the best indicator.Table 4: Early-season production regression parameters, controlling planting progressObservations:Model191st Sunday of May2nd Sunday of May3rd Sunday of MayR-square0.6390.5960.551ParameterCoefficient 1/Intercept-357.6*-365.7*-432.9*National yield27.4*27.6*29.4*2-State plan

44、ting progress1.709*1.5141.518Notes: Modeled data estimates from 2000 to 2018 sugarbeet crops. Planting progress from USDA National Agricultural Statistics Services weekly Crop Progress report.1/ * = Significant at the 90% level, * = Significant at the 95% level, *= Significant at the 99% level. Sour

45、ce: USDA, Economic Research Service and Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee.The R-squares of the models are lower than the yield regressions, indicating that there is more unexplained variation in these early-season production models than in the yield models. The estimating models do show enou

46、gh explanatory power to be useful tools in forecasting future harvesting and management conditions. The results of the model show that 1st Sunday of May is the best indicator. Models using the successive weeks capture less of the variability. Once again, the practical interpretation would be that th

47、e planting pace information provided after early May does not provide any more useful statistical informationand in fact provides less precision than indicators from earlier weeks.Using the 1st Sunday of May model, along with the updated national yield forecast, early- season production is expected

48、to be 511,000 STRV. This is a slight increase from the May estimate. This would be considerably lower than recent years. Since 2015/16, early-season production has exceeded 600,000 STRV every year. Given the lower planting progress and the current yield expectations, the current estimate is not an o

49、utlier. This component of beet sugar production will be dynamic throughout the summer, however. The forecast for early-season production will be updated as additional data and information regarding the current crops development, yield, and production become available over the next several months.Fig

50、ure 7:Early-season production versus national yield20122017201020152018201620002007200620192001200320142005201120092002200420082013800Production (1,000 STRV)70060050040030020010002022242628303234Yield (tons per acre)Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.Figure 8:Early-season production versus Minn

51、esota and North Dakota planting progress (1st Sunday of May)20172015201820162019200620032001201420072000201120092013200820022004800Production (1,000 STRV)7006005004003002001000201220102005 HYPERLINK / US020406080100Planting progress (percent)Source: USDA, Economic Research Service.Cane Sugar Product

52、ion Lowered Slightly for Both 2018/19 and 2019/20Cane sugar production in 2019/20 is projected at 3.985 million STRVa 16,000-STRV reduction from the previous months figure. If realized, this would be a 1.1-percent decline from the revised 2018/19 estimate. The 2019/20 reduction is due to less produc

53、tion expected from HYPERLINK / USTexas, which is projected to produce 134,000 STRV. The change is in response to processors reporting in the region, where growers had fewer plantings of new cane than previously expected due to weather. Cane sugar production in Florida and Louisiana are projected at2

54、.051 million and 1.800 million STRV, respectivelyboth unchanged from the May report.Cane sugar production in 2018/19 is estimated to be 4.028 million STRV, a slight, 9,000-STRV reduction from the previous month. The reduction is based on lower production in Florida, based on updated reports from pro

55、cessors as they wrapped up the harvest season in May.Florida cane sugar production for 2018/19 is estimated at 2.005 million STRV. Although a reduction from the previous estimate, it still represents a 1.1-percent increase from the previous year.High-Duty Imports Raised for 2018/19, Total Imports Un

56、changed for 2019/20Total imports in 2019/20 remain unchanged from the May report, totaling 3.219 million STRV. Quota under imports are projected to be 1.381 million STRV. This total only reflects minimum quota commitments for the WTO raw, refined, and specialty sugar TRQsincluding a 99,000 STRV expe

57、cted shortfall for the raw sugar TRQ and established volumes based on free-trade agreements (FTAs). There have been no announcements regarding additional volumes under the Specialty Sugar TRQ. As a result, the current projections do not reflect any imports from that component of trade.Projected impo

58、rts from Mexico in 2019/20 are unchanged at 1.418 million STRV. This is based on the calculated U.S. Needs from the May WASDE projections, assuming that the additional Specialty Sugar volumes for 2019/20 are comparable to 2018/19 levels. The U.S. Needs calculation is defined by the Suspension Agreem

59、ents that were signed in December 2014 and amended in June 2017. According to the agreements, the first official Department of Commerce (USDOC) calculation of U.S. Needs and the Export Limit for 2019/20 will take place subsequent to the July 2019 WASDE report. Updated expectations of Mexicos process

60、ors export actions will likely occur in the July WASDE.Estimated imports for 2018/19 are 2.874 million STRVa 20,000-STRV increase from the previous month. The only change in the import outlook is for imports under high-tier tariffs. Imports at the high-duty levels are estimated to total 90,000 STRV.