射频半导体：5G能否推动亚洲RF供应链出现更重大的升级周期

1、Global Research1 June 2020UBS Global I/ORF semiconductorCan 5G spur a more significant upgrade cycle for Asias RF supply chain?A closer look at how 5G can change the cellular PA designThe upgrade to 5G is a key theme within the global tech sector in 2020, in our view. Radio frequency (RF) related co

2、mponents could be a major beneficiary of the 5G upgrade, as 5G adds new frequency bands and the module design is becoming more advanced for features such as MIMO. This report provides analyses into: 1) the technological evolution of 5G power amplifiers (PA); and 2) the RF front-end (RFFE) modules fo

3、r 5G. We forecast global PA units to grow 3%/27% in 2020/2021. We have a non-consensus view about Asias relatively faster 5G rollout, and we estimate Asias PA to grow 45%/84% YoY in the same period.What are the opportunities for Asian suppliers in the 5G rollout?The global PA industry has been domin

4、ated by US companies, but we identify better opportunities for Asian companies linked to 5G, including Chinese companies as well as Murata and Samsung. We believe this will likely be spurred by: 1) lower entry barriers to 5G RFFE modules for the new sub 6GHz bands, given fewer filter and interferenc

5、e issues; we think the market is likely unaware of this change; 2) Chinas bifurcation from the US; and 3) faster penetration of 5G smartphones in the volume segment. We expect Asias PA companies to grow market shares in Chinas 5G smartphone segment from 25% in 2019 to 55% in 2021, with potentially m

6、ore 5G design wins from H220E.WiFi 6 is another potential driver for 2020EFollowing over five years at WiFi 5, WiFi is upgrading to WiFi 6. We consider WiFi 6 a more significant improvement than its predecessor as it would provide faster throughput, more flexible bandwidth allocation, less latency a

7、nd better support to mission critical devices. We believe WiFi 6 could bolster WiFi PAs volume, given the requirement for higher multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO). We estimate gallium arsenide (GaAs) WiFi PA demand to grow 30% YoY in 2021.Our most and least preferred stocksWe believe the opp

8、ortunities for Asian PA suppliers to gain market shares in the 5G landscape could benefit the domestic supply chain, and our top picks are WIN Semiconductors (WIN Semi; we initiate coverage at Buy), Murata (Key-Call Buy), and Samsung Electro-Mechanics (SEMCO, Buy). On the US side, Broadcom (Buy) is

9、our preferred stock given its close relationship with Apple on its proprietary RFFE solution. Our least preferred stocks are Skyworks Solutions and Qorvo, considering their potential share losses in an expanding 5G content pie.Figure 1: Most and least favoured stocksTechnologyGlobalEquitiesSunny Lin

10、Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:sunny.lin sunny.lin+886-2-8722 7346Bill Lu Analyst HYPERLINK mailto:bill.lu bill.l HYPERLINK mailto:u u+852-2971 8360Timothy ArcuriAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:timothy.arcuri timothy.arcuri+1-415-352 5676Nicolas GaudoisAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:nicolas.gaudois nicolas.gaudoi HYPE

11、RLINK mailto:s s+852-2971 5681Shingo Hirata, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:shingo.hirata shingo.hirata+81-3-5208 6224Taewoo LeeAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:taewoo.lee taewoo.lee+852-2971 6873Ken Tay, CFAAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:ken.tay ke HYPERLINK mailto:n.tay n.tay+603-2781 1121Jimmy YuAnalyst S14605170

12、80002 HYPERLINK mailto:jimmy.yu jimmy.yu+86-21-3866 8880Pradeep RamaniAnalyst HYPERLINK mailto:pradeep.ramani pradeep.ramani+1-415-352 5517Market cap EPS growth ROE (%) PE (x) P/BV (x)CompanyTickerRating(US$ m)2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021E2020E2021EMost favouredWIN Semi3105.TWOBuy3,62310%39%17.621.

13、920.014.43.43.0BroadcomAVGO.OBuy115,5152%18%41.453.411.69.85.25.3Murata Mfg.6981.TBuy36,694-9%37%9.512.023.817.42.22.0SEMCO009150.KSBuy7,201-26%90%7.713.320.610.91.51.4Least favouredSkyworks SolutionsSWKS.ONeutral21,070-9%28%25.734.720.416.05.95.3QorvoQRVO.ONeutral11,699-13%25%15.017.818.114.62.72.5

14、Source: Company data, Thompson Reuters, UBS estimates (Note: WIN Semi priced as of 29 May 2020, others priced as of 28 May 2020.) HYPERLINK /investmentresearch /investmentresearchThis report has been prepared by UBS Securities Pte. Ltd., Taipei Branch. ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND REQUIRED DISCLOSURES

15、BEGIN ON PAGE 28. UBS does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.RF semiconductorUBS Research THESIS MAP a guide to our thinking an

16、d whats where in this reportOUR THESIS IN PICTURESMOST FAVOUREDLEAST FAVOUREDWIN Semi, Murata, SEMCO, BroadcomSkyworks, QorvoPIVOTAL QUESTIONSQ: Can 5G re-accelerate the compound semis foundries in Asia?Likely. For 5G, we expect GaAs to remain the mainstream solution for sub 6GHz (sub 6) smartphone

17、PAs, while mmWave uses complementary metal-oxide-semiconductors (CMOS) instead. We estimate the global number of GaAs smartphone PA units to grow 3%/27% YoY in 2020/2021 owing to the new bands of sub 6. Asian foundries could benefit from the market share gains of Chinese PA companies as well as Mura

18、ta and Qualcomm in high-end phones. Among the foundries, WIN Semi could have the most upside potential from the 5G rollout, in our view.moreQ: Can Asian fabless PA suppliers and compound semis foundries still gain market shares? Yes. We believe Chinas localisation is a structural driver, but we also

19、 expect other positives in the transition to 5G, including the technological changes and Chinese phone makers aggressive targetto sell low-cost 5G phones. We estimate Asian companies market shares of the China 5Gsmartphone segment to rise from 25% in 2019 to 55% in 2021. We believe the new US export

20、 control on Huawei could disrupt HiSilicons near-term shipments, but we expect part of the shortfall to be made up by Huawei using other Asian solutions. This new restriction does not change the long-term market share gain potential.moreQ: Could WiFi 6 be a key driver over the next few years?Yes. Th

21、e WiFi PA market has been flat over the past few years, but we expect another growth cycle from 2020 owing to the rollout of WiFi 6. WiFi 6 could drive increasing WiFi PA content in routers given the higher MIMO support. Our analysis indicates WiFi PAs global shipments could grow 30% YoY in 2021E, f

22、ollowing a flat 2020E, hampered by smartphones potentially weak sales.moreUBS VIEWWe expect 27% YoY growth for 2021 GaAs smartphone PAs overall volume driven by 5G, and we foresee Asian companies outperforming this with an 84% YoY volume increase. We believe the general perception is that 5G RFFE de

23、signs are becoming more complex, and the capability of the relatively new companies, such as Murata, HiSilicon and Vanchip, could take a few years to catch up with their US peers. We do not fully agree with this view. We are more positive as we believe the sub 6 RFFE module for the new bands could b

24、e easier to develop than the 4G RFFE module. Separately, the number of WiFi PAs could also grow meaningfully in 2020E/2021E owing to the WiFi 6 upgrade, which could improve the MIMO features of the average WiFi PA unit. We believe Asian foundries could benefit from this, and WIN Semi is our top pick

25、 among the leading 5G semiconductor companies.EVIDENCEWIN Semis addressable cellular PA market could expand 22% in 2020E and 55% in 2021E. Our proprietary industry analysis on 5G PAs market size and the market shares of major companies suggest a resilient growth outlook for WIN Semi.WHATS PRICED IN?

26、In terms of the 5G upside for Asian companies, we believe investors are generally reserved about the opportunities in 2020E/2021E given the new specifications (spec). The markets expectations have declined further after the fresh US export ban on Huawei/HiSilicon, among others.WIN Semis addressable

27、cellular PA market will likely expand significantly60%40%20%0%201820192020E2021EWIN Semis client market shareWIN Semis addressable cellular PA growth Source: Company data, UBS estimatesRF semiconductorUBS ResearchOUR THESIS IN PICTURESreturn 4,5004,0003,5003,0002,5002,0001,5001,000500070%60%50%40%30

28、%20%10%0%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%1,6001,4001,2001,0008006004002000201820192020E2021ESmartphone PA unit (mn)YoY (RHS)Market share of Asian PA companies in Chinese smartphones201820192020E2021E4G5GPAs for each smartphone (unit)201820192020E2021E4G5G20192020E2021ETotal WIFI PA unit (mn)WIFI 6 penetratio

29、n in consumer router / PON (RHS) WIFI PA unit growth (RHS)30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%35%30%25%20%15%10%5%0%-5%The 5G upgrade could kick-start a new growth cycle for the smartphone PA industryand Asian companies could gain market shares driven by the sub 6 RFFE modules simpler technology, Chinas in-sourci

30、ng plan and the cost-saving pressure by Chinese handset makers.We estimate the 5G rollout could add three new PAs to high-end smartphones, and one to two PAs to lower- end smartphones.WiFi 6 could trigger growth to rebound for the WiFi PA market, as more PAs could be needed to support the improved M

31、IMO functions.Sources for exhibits above: Company data, Gartner, UBS estimatesFigure 2: Supply chain diagram for GaAs power amplifiersNote: EPI stands for epitaxial; IDM stand for integrated device manufacturer. Source: UBSRF semiconductorUBS ResearchPIVOTAL QUESTIONSreturn Q: Can 5G re-accelerate t

32、he compound semis foundries in Asia?UBS VIEWLikely. For 5G, we expect GaAs to remain the mainstream solution for sub 6GHz (sub 6) smartphone PAs, while mmWave uses complementary metal- oxide-semiconductors (CMOS) instead. We estimate the global number of GaAs smartphone PA units to grow 3%/27% YoY i

33、n 2020/2021 owing to the new bands of sub 6. Asian foundries could benefit from the market share gains of Chinese PA companies as well as Murata and Qualcomm in high-end phones. Among the foundries, WIN Semi could have the most upside potential in the 5G rollout, in our view.EVIDENCEOur industry ana

34、lysis indicates a high-end smartphone needs roughly six PAs to function with 5G compared with three PAs for 4G. For the midrange to lower- end smartphone segments that support only Chinese networks, a 5G-ready smartphone requires three to four PAs compared with two PAs for 4G.As the largest RF PA fo

35、undry in terms of 2019 revenue, WIN Semi has benefitted from the 5G upgrade since H219. According to WIN Semi, 5G PAs accounted for 20% of its smartphone PA revenue in Q419.WHATS PRICED IN?We believe investors are generally positive about the 5G development but are conservative about the 5G rollout

36、in 2020E because of the impact from the coronavirus outbreak.Quantifying power amplifiers demand related to 5G smartphonesPAs are found in most wireless devices, including mobile phones, cellular base stations as well as routers, and are used to amplify power/RF signals. Smartphones make up the most

37、 important end-market for PAs given the markets scale. Although the increase in smartphone units has slowed in the past few years, the ongoing cellular migration to 5G could create new growth momentum for the RF PA industry as new bands are introduced. We estimate the total GaAs smartphone PA shipme

38、nt to grow 3% YoY in 2020 and 27% YoY in 2021. We understand the number of units is not a precise way to quantify the market size of RF PA, as design varies among PA companies, smartphone makers and price segments. The die size is also a variable. However, we think it still serves as a baseline for

39、us to think about the potential direction of the industrys growth, and we try our best to forecast by segment.For the Asian supply chain, we expect 5G to be a more significant opportunity than 3G and 4G as: 1) Chinese smartphone makers are looking to reduce their reliance on supply from the US; 2) t

40、he sub 6 technology for 5G has fewer fundamental challenges than 4G; and 3) Qualcomm will likely take market share from traditional IDMs.In the following section, we start by exploring the technical changes for 5G RF PAs in terms of materials, RFFE modules, 5G PA design and the specific drivers for

41、Asian compounds semis foundries in 5G.Figure 3: Smartphone PA demand forecasts201820192020E2021EPA unit per phone4G- High-end3.03.03.03.0- Mid/low-end2.02.02.02.05G- High-end6.06.06.0- Mid/low-end5.04.0Smartphone mix (%)4G- High-end32%31%28%26%- Mid/low-end68%69%72%74%5G- High-end100%58%50%- Mid/low

42、-end0%42%50%Smartphone unit (m)1,4021,3711,1791,3214G1,4021,3529868685G019193453Smartphone PA unit (m)3,2483,2403,3244,225YoY0%3%27%4G- High-end1,3331,266827678- Mid/low-end1,9151,8601,4211,2845G- High-end01146671,354- Mid/low-end00410910Source: Company data, UBS estimatesAre there any technological

43、 changes related to 5G PAs?There are two standards of 5G technology sub 6 and millimetre wave (mmWave), with key differences in frequency bands, transmission speed and power. We have written about the 5G technology in detail last year (link), and thus this section aims to focus on how the smartphone

44、 power amplifiers are being designed for sub 6 and mmWave.First, in terms of materials, smartphone PAs have been mostly dominated by circuits made with GaAs in the 2G to 4G eras. Compared with CMOS, GaAs provides superior performance on signal transmission and is quieter. For 5G, we believe sub 6 co

45、uld continue to be made with GaAs, whereas mmWave is migrating to CMOS processes for two major reasons.Changing PA form factor: mmWave bands use frequencies between 24.25GHz and 40GHz compared with 4Gs frequencies below 3GHz and sub 6s 3.3-5.0GHz frequencies. Ultra-high frequency signals have much s

46、horter wavelengths than sub 6, which need to be achieved by using a smaller form factor for power amplifiers. However, the performance of a single amplifier could be constraint in this case, thus several small PAs are combined into a PA array for mmWave to enhance the transmission quality. This mean

47、s each small PA does not need to be as powerful as the standalone PA for 3G and 4G, and thus CMOS appears to be a sufficient solution for 5G technology.CMOS offers better integration: Since the mmWave signal has a short wavelength, the signal is easily attenuated during transmission. As a result, it

48、 needs a highly integrated RFFE module to avoid path loss. For the other key RF components, switch, LNA and filters can be made using the CMOS SOI process. By using CMOS, the PAs can be manufactured with the RF components within the same chip, which could materially improve the transmission quality.

49、Qualcomm is currently the dominant supplier for mmWave PAs. We understand its RF360 solutions mmWave PAs use the CMOS process (supplied by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company TSMC), while the sub 6 and 4G PAs use GaAs (supplied by WIN Semi).For sub 6 standard, the new bands use lower frequenc

50、ies in the 3.3-5.0GHz range. This needs to be transmitted through larger PAs as 3G and 4G, which still reinforces GaAs as the most suitable material in terms of signal quality and power consumption.In addition to CMOS, there is also increasing interest among global PA companies in using gallium nitr

51、ide in 5G technology, as GaN has a more promising performance for high-frequency signals than GaAs, owing to its higher breakdown voltage feature. However, GaN also costs more than GaAs. For example, a GaN epi-wafer could cost about US$5,000, which is more than twice as much as GaAs and even more ex

52、pensive than CMOS. Thus, we believe GaNs could have better success in infrastructure PAs than in mobile. For smartphones, the traditional PA companies such as Skyworks and Qorvo may be looking into GaN as a potential material for mmWave, but we believe Qualcomm is a leader when it comes to CMOS solu

53、tions.Figure 4: 5G New Radio bands overview4G and below6 GhzMillimetre wave LTE Re-farmingB5 - n5 B71 - n71 B2 - n2 B66 - n66 B41 - n413.33.3n783.8 4.4n795.0n774.2Frequency Range 1 (GHz)27.2524.254037n26127.528.3526.529.5n258n260n257Frequency Range 2 (GHz)FDD Paired SpectrumSub-6 GHz TDDTDD GHz Band

54、widthNote: FDD frequency division multiplex; TDD time division multiplex. Source: UBSComparison of major materials for PAsHere, we provide some of the key elements in analysing the features of GaAs, GaN and CMOS for PAs.Material cost: Silicon is cheap and easy to obtain, and thus using silicon lower

55、s the cost of the CMOS solution. For GaAs and GaN, gallium is a rare metal of limited availability and is therefore expensive. In addition, unlike CMOS, which is based on pure silicon wafers, GaAs and GaN use compound semiconductor wafers with epi-layers of multiple materials. This requires complex

56、processing steps. Lastly, the manufacturing of GaN tends to have higher rate of defects than CMOS, which creates challenges in terms of yield and manufacturability.Electron mobility: This represents how quickly an electron can move through the materials. The higher the number, the better a material

57、can perform within high-frequency applications with low power consumption.Band gap: This measures the electrical conductivity of a material. The wider bandgap materials such as GaAs, GaN and SiC can accommodate higher voltage, larger current and better power conversion. In other words, these materia

58、ls have a higher range of operating temperature tolerance and higher breakdown voltage. RF devices generally need to run at high power for signal transmission, and this is why GaAs is historically a more suitable material for these devices than CMOS.Figure 5: Material comparison for RF PAGaAsGaNCMOS

59、Material costMediumHighLowElectron mobilityMediumHighestLowPower consumptionMediumLowHighNoise generationLowLowHighBandgapMediumHighLowBreakdown voltageMediumHighLowSource: UBSIn terms of the design of RFFE, sub 6 and mmWave are also quite different. Before getting into 5G, let us take a step back o

60、n the latest development of 4G RFFE. The trend towards more integrated 4G modules became more evident for higher-end smartphones over the past few years because of: 1) the shrinking space for RFFE components as smartphone makers add new functionalities; and 2) the increasing complexity of RFFE desig