巴基斯坦经济展望

1、PRESENTATION ONThe Present Economic Outlook for PakistanByMinistry of FinanceGovernment of PakistanApril, 2006Outline of PresentationKey Macroeconomic Challenges of the 1990sHow did we address those challengesWhere Are We Now?Where do we want to see Pakistan in the next five yearsKey Macroeconomic t

2、argets for the next five yearsNew ChallengesHow to address new challengesConcluding remarksOvercoming macroeconomic challenges 1990s Macroeconomic ScenarioMacroeconomic imbalances leading to buildup of public debt, deceleration of growth and investment, and stagnation in exportsChallenges of the 90s

3、Improve macroeconomic environmentBring debt situation under controlRestore investor confidenceRevive economic growthRestore financial sovereignty2000-onwards: Two-pronged Strategy followedPolicies pursued to strengthen macroeconomic environmentIntroducing wide-ranging structural reforms6Policies pur

4、sued to strengthen macroeconomic environmentReducing “Twin Deficits”Keeping inflation lowBuilding foreign exchange reservesMaintaining stability in exchange rateMaintaining consistency and continuity in policies7Strong commitment to reform agendaMajor economic reformsTax ReformsGovernance ReformsCap

5、ital Market ReformsIndustry & Investment ReformsFiscal TransparencyAgriculture Sector ReformsFinancial Sector ReformsDeregulation & PrivatizationFiscal Responsibility & Debt Limitation Act8Improved external balance of payments Increased foreign exchange reservesExports growing at double-digit ratesP

6、akistans economy has made significant progress during the last six years A vibrant economy spurred by FDI and domestic investment in infrastructureTransparent and predictable economic policiesReform policies institutionalized, ensuring continuityConfidence of the private sector restored Inflows of r

7、emittances surgedFiscal and current account deficits loweredDeclining domestic and external debt burdenA vibrant economy spurred by FDI and domestic investment9Where Are We Now ?Robust Economic GrowthReal GDP growth (% yoy change)Source: Federal Bureau of Statistics6.57.0Per Capita Income ($)Per Cap

8、ita Income Continues to RiseSource: Federal Bureau of StatisticsNew Jobs CreatedLabour Force SurveyEmployment (in millions)Number of New Employment (in millions)FY 0036.82-FY 0239.052.23FY 0442.012.96FY 06 (Q1)47.555.54Source: Labour Force Survey, FBS Reduction in PovertyArea2000-012004-05Changes (%

9、 Points)Overall32.125.4-6.7Rural39.031.8-7.2Urban22.717.2-5.5Source: Center for Research on Poverty Reduction and Income Distribution (CRPRID)Foreign investmentForeign Investment (US$ million) including Privatization ProceedsSource: SBPNet Credit Flows to the Private SectorBanksFuel & EnergyNon Ener

10、gy Non BanksRising Profitability Driving GrowthSource: KSECurrency stabilization and buoyant stock market reflects optimism in the Pakistan economySource: BloombergExchange rate (PKR/USD)Pakistans Karachi Stock Exchange Index - 10025Improving budgetary positionOverall fiscal deficit (% of GDP)Source

11、: Ministry of Finance Growing Revenue Collection helps boost up the economyIncrease Revenue Collection (Rs. Billion)Source: Ministry of Finance & CBR CBR RevenueOverall interest payment ratios have improvedInterest Payments (As % of Total Revenue)Source: Ministry of FinanceLow inflation has provided

12、 monetary flexibilitySource: FBSInflation (%) (Base year 2001 = 100)Month-wise Trend in InflationSupply Side ActionsProjectedRegional Price Comparison of Essential CommoditiesSource: FBS & Ministry of CommerceMoney Supply, Inflation & GrowthM2Nominal GDPInflationReal GDPLow interest rates encouraged

13、 private investment and fuelled growthWeighted Average Lending Rate (% per annum)Source: SBPExceptionally strong external liquiditySource: SBPImports and Exports (US$ million)As confidence in the economy builds, remittances from abroad have risen sharplySource: SBPRemittances (US$ million)Current ac

14、count (% of GDP)Current account deficit remains under controlSource: SBPFinancial Flows (Million $)2005-062004-05Privatization Proceeds1645 363Grants 637 231Capital Markets1500 600Project & Program Aid2893 2044Foreign Investment1850 1676Total 8525 4914Current Account Deficit -5353-1753Amortization-1

15、042-1434Other Payments - 416-1500Total-6811-4687Addition to Reserves 1714 227 Source: Ministry of Finance .aided by a phenomenal buildup in FX reservesSource: SBPForeign exchange reserves (US$ billion)Debt Pro PakistanPUBLIC DEBT (As % of GDP)( End June )Source: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance EXTE

16、RNAL DEBT AND LIABILITIES (% of Foreign Exchange Earnings)Significantly reducing vulnerability to external shocksSource: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance INDICATORS OF DEBT BURDENExternal Debt (As % of GDP)Source: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance INDICATORS OF DEBT BURDENExternal Debt As Multiples o

17、f FX ReservesSource: Debt Office, Ministry of Finance Pakistans EconomyIn the Next Five YearsPakistans Economy in the Next Five YearsStrong Economic Growth Ranging between 6 8% p.a.Stable Macroeconomic EnvironmentDebt Burden Reaching Sustainable LevelLives of the Common Man ImprovingSocial Indicator

18、s ImprovingKey Macroeconomic TargetsFor The Next Five YearsKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSustainable Budget Deficit Ensuing Macroeconomic StabilityContinue to Maintain Macroeconomic StabilitySource: Ministry of Finance Public Debt Attaining SustainabilityContinue to Maintain Macro

19、economic StabilityKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance Country No Longer Vulnerable to External Shocks: External Debt As % of GDPContinue to Maintain Macroeconomic StabilityKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance Investment

20、 as % of GDP RisingRising InvestmentKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance Pakistan on a higher Growth TrajectorySustaining Growth MomentumKey Macroeconomic Targets for the Next Five YearsSource: Ministry of Finance New ChallengesSecond generation reformsSecond

21、generation reformsImproving competitiveness of industryFacilitate expansion and increased role of private sectorFurther strengthening of tax administrationPromoting transparency in economic policy makingJudicial reform, Police Reform and Civil Service ReformStrengthening institutions32Building robus

22、t financial systemFurther strengthening of tax administrationContinuing Economic Agendai. Curtailing High Energy CostsPower Sector ReformsHydel PowerGas PipelinesReforms of Oil and Gas industry ii. Removing Water ShortagesWater ReservoirsManagement of Water ResourcesEfficient Usage at the Farm Level

23、Continuing Economic Agendaiii. Improving Logistics & Removing Supply Chain ConstraintsNational Trade CorridorRetail & Wholesale Markets DevelopmentPorts ModernizationModernizing Transport Fleetiv. Unlocking the Land BankNIPs (National Industrial Parks)Release of Government Land ( Defence, Railways, Provincial Governments etc.)Computerization of Land TransactionsContinuing Economic Agendav. Removing Skills Gap & Enhancing ProductivityNTEVTA5 New Engineering Universities & HEC InitiativesEducation