影响财政收入的因素分析

1、影响财政收入的因素分析 金融081 604 康嘉鹏 刘志强 李璐超 张闻东 凌峰 理论背景本篇报告我们主要是要来研究影响财政收入的主要因素有哪些，之所以研究这一问题，是因为，财政收入对于国民 HYPERLINK / 经济的运行及社会发展具有重要影响。我们从财政收入的部门构成来分析财政收入的影响因素。从国民经济部门结构看，财政收入又表现为来自各经济部门的收入。财政收入的部门构成就是在财政收入中，由来自国民经济各部门的收入所占的不同比例来表现财政收入来源的结构，它体现国民经济各部门与财政收入的关系。我国财政收入主要来自于工业、农业、商业、交通运输和服务业等部门。其中工业和农业对财政收入的影响最大。

2、 模型的选择与建立本模型是研究二十多年以来我国财政收入与主要影响要素之间的定量关系。1.确定模型所包含的变量。被解释变量为粮食产量，解释变量为工业总产值、农业总产值、建筑业总产值、社会商品零售总额、受灾面积、年底人口数目。选择依据主要是财政收入的部门结构。2.确定模型的数学形式。我们将解释变量的数学形式确定为：Y=0+1X1+2X2+3X3+4X4+5X5+6X6+解释变量有6个， 0为常数项，为随机误差项，描述变量外的因素对模型的干扰。 数据的来源与分析 1. 样本数据的来源:1980、1985、19892002出自中国统计年鉴（2003年）；2003年出自中国统计年鉴（2004年）；其余年

3、份数据出自中国统计年鉴（1998年）。2. 数据的调整：由于年鉴中的货币形式数据均以当年价格计算。因此，统计模型中的财政收入、建筑业总产值、社会商品零售总额均运用商品零售价格指数加以调整；而工业总产值及农业总产值分别运用工业品出厂价格指数及农产品收购价格指数加以调整。样本数据如下表：年份财政收入(亿元)工业总产值(亿元)农业总产值(亿元)建筑业总产值(亿元)社会消费品零售总额(亿元)受灾面积(十万公顷)人口数目 (百万人)obsYX1X2X3X4X5X619801159.9351541922.6286.931794445.26987.0519811175.7954002180.6282.320

4、02.5397.91000.7219821212.3358112483.3345.332181.5331.31015.919831366.9564602750419.512426.1347.11030.0819841642.8676173214.1517.152899.2318.91043.5719852004.8297163619.5675.13801.4443.651058.5119862122.01111944013808.074374471.41075.0719872199.35138134675.7954.655115420.9109319882357.24182255865.311

5、31.656534.6508.71110.2619892664.9220176534.71282.987074.2469.911127.0419902937.1239247662.11345.017250.3384.741143.3319913149.482662581571564.338245.7554.721158.2319923483.37345999084.72174.449704.8513.331171.7119934348.954840210995.53253.512462.1488.291185.171994521854653.3216264.7550.

6、431198.519956242.29189420340.95793.7520620546.881267.4319967407.999959522353.78282.2524774.1458.211211.2119978651.1411373323788.49126.4827298.9469.891223.8919989875.9511904824541.910061.9929152.5521.551276.27199911444.0812611124519.111152.8631134.7534.291236.26200013395.2385673.6624915.812497.634152

7、.6471.191284.53200116386.0495448.9826179.615361.5637595.2501.451247.61200218903.64110776.527390.818527.1842027.1499.811257.86200321715.25142271.229691.823083.8745842545.061292.27为了与以往数据可比,我们对以货币量 HYPERLINK / 计量的数据做了调整,调整结果如下:年份财政收入(亿元)工业总产值(亿元)农业总产值(亿元)建筑业总产值(亿元)社会消费品零售总额(亿元)商品零售价格指数(%)工业品出厂价格指数(%)农

8、产品收购价格指数(%)obsYX1X2X3X41980=1001980=1001980=10019801159.9351541922.6286.93179410010010019811148.2325389.2222059.112275.68361955.566102.4100.2105.919821162.34958112295.102331.0932091.563104.3100108.219831290.7936466.4662435.784396.13792290.935105.999.9112.919841508.5957519.252737.734474.88522662.2591

9、08.9101.3117.419851691.8318824.7052838.824569.70463207.932118.5110.1127.519861689.4989793.5262957.259643.36783482.484125.6114.3135.719871630.35611202.763076.118707.67233791.698134.9123.315219881475.11912843.553138.202708.16654089.237159.8141.9186.919891415.99413089.773039.395681.71093758.874188.2168

10、.221519901528.94313663.053659.074700.16143774.232192.1175.1209.419911593.0614314.523975.146791.26454170.814197.7186205.219921672.28517421.454281.1971043.8984659.049208.3198.6212.219931844.33819651.644570.0331379.7715285.03235.8246.3240.619941818.15323845.064679.2931621.3665667.143287294.3336.6199518

11、95.02127179.535039.8661758.886259.866329.4338.1403.619962119.59728627.485314.7172369.7427088.441349.5347.9420.619972455.61732794.985923.4062590.5427748.765352.3346.8401.619982878.44735793.146641.9222932.678496.794343.1332.6369.519993438.72638851.27558.2923351.229355.379332.8324.6324.420004086.403256

12、73.866246.1273812.56910418.73327.8333.7398.920015037.20928976.626305.2994722.27511557.09325.3329.4415.220025888.98434381.286347.815771.70713092.55321322.2431.520036771.20443177.916630.5947197.96414294.36320.7329.5447.83.样本数据的折线图及散点图：（1） 样本数据的折线图： （2） 样本数据的散点图： 模型的估 HYPERLINK / 计与分析1.模型的回归分析(1) 六元回归t

13、0.025 (17) =2.1098 F0.05 (6,17) =2.70 CX1X2X3X4X5X6回归系数2590.592-0.057110.142310.8177850.1423910.051111-1.82716t检验值1.565033-3.678591.1291593.5106750.9221660.072356-0.99124F检验值376.1917多重可决系数0.992525校正可决系数0.989886DW检验值1.291718(2) 五元回归t0.025 (18) =2.1009 F0.05 (5,18) =2.77 DW(24,6) =(0.93,1.90)CX1X2X3X4

14、X5X6回归系数972.3473-0.063540.1508770.9660460.040345-0.10355t检验值3.557087-4.508491.2006215.4122260.348406-0.15038F检验值451.6712多重可决系数0.992093校正可决系数0.989896DW检验值1.404287回归系数2580.945-0.056950.1402820.8145780.145676-1.7977t检验值1.609391-3.811161.1743893.6646870.975326-1.02879F检验值477.8365多重可决系数0.992522校正可决系数0.99

15、0445DW检验值1.284714回归系数2580.945-0.056950.1402820.8145780.145676-1.7977t检验值1.609391-3.811161.1743893.6646870.975326-1.02879F检验值477.8365多重可决系数0.992522校正可决系数0.990445DW检验值1.284714回归系数1528.182-0.065620.2142591.0300240.161095-0.68948t检验值1.291103-5.279152.17415628.773820.232345-0.50553F检验值455.0421多重可决系数0.992

16、151校正可决系数0.98997DW检验值1.278424回归系数6476.955-0.0224-0.133540.684645-0.42076-5.9823t检验值4.123357-1.46629-1.0618222.29192-0.47536-3.3167F检验值275.5811多重可决系数0.987105校正可决系数0.983523DW检验值1.167265回归系数2847.201-0.043170.6537950.252808-0.12552-1.97004t检验值1.723384-4.550933.5626852.049123-0.18084-1.06319F检验值444.3858多

17、重可决系数0.991964校正可决系数0.989732DW检验值1.325958回归系数5526.695-0.226320.2721210.484846-0.30921-4.66331t检验值2.926238-2.273881.1633082.969389-0.33938-2.13852F检验值264.5425多重可决系数0.986574校正可决系数0.982845DW检验值0.76304(3) 四元回归t0.025 (19) =2.0930 F0.05 (4,19) =2.90 DW(24,5) =(1.01,1.78)CX1X2X3X4X5X6回归系数937.3219-0.06410.15

18、54720.9779690.032735t检验值6.725782-4.836811.3096076.2790390.322697F检验值595.2013多重可决系数0.992083校正可决系数0.990416DW检验值1.417553回归系数688.2781-0.069760.185521.0356390.67348t检验值2.57198-5.673492.49455530.193191.106635F检验值630.3901多重可决系数0.992521校正可决系数0.990947DW检验值1.419696回归系数1210.067-0.01874-0.397710.648275-1.1789t检

19、验值2.600067-0.91902-2.9694216.91295-1.12901F检验值203.4406多重可决系数0.977184校正可决系数0.972381DW检验值1.423736回归系数899.1915-0.050860.8440920.124830.34495t检验值3.452357-6.402957.4526661.7762090.512521F检验值553.1371多重可决系数0.991486校正可决系数0.989693DW检验值1.448802回归系数1496.565-0.31780.5724620.260508-0.744t检验值4.399906-3.3072.74466

20、91.853168-0.81854F检验值273.6112多重可决系数0.982936校正可决系数0.979343DW检验值0.887151回归系数1447.161-0.064620.2072661.025259-0.53719t检验值1.569935-5.275752.39925129.86484-0.55091F检验值601.4622多重可决系数0.992164校正可决系数0.990515DW检验值1.258379回归系数5334.934-0.01667-0.202430.660507-4.8794t检验值4.328455-1.06831-1.7240422.18093-3.75733F检

21、验值335.3177多重可决系数0.986032校正可决系数0.983092DW检验值1.363083回归系数2532.203-0.042840.6795680.228222-1.67024t检验值2.145843-4.777344.4368170.334766-1.2935F检验值593.987多重可决系数0.992067校正可决系数0.990396DW检验值1.364332回归系数4650.636-0.232130.3361910.426478-3.81462t检验值3.56536-2.560911.6342483.044223-2.61825F检验值361.1414多重可决系数0.987

22、018校正可决系数0.984285DW检验值0.981754回归系数2352.6970.0957580.198542-3.24354-1.03214t检验值0.3688051.2392640.328402-0.71085-0.1413F检验值8.230836多重可决系数0.634076校正可决系数0.557039DW检验值0.296035回归系数730.6185-0.045371.0345110.5870570.280255t检验值0.75147-4.5093626.229690.7837240.271246F检验值475.5452多重可决系数0.99011校正可决系数0.988028DW检验

23、值1.153898回归系数2769.406-0.105750.9508660.91494-1.52475t检验值1.935643-1.0720919.241370.087875-0.91049F检验值241.2857多重可决系数0.980694校正可决系数0.976629DW检验值0.665176回归系数6112.882-0.035270.6539060.453284-6.14493t检验值20.470580.476829-4.55651F检验值多重可决系数0.984038校正可决系数0.980678DW检验值1.381155回归系数5624.947-0.296150.650889-0.031

24、94-5.03857t检验值4.429572-3.1669122.10288-0.03505-3.40297F检验值316.0687多重可决系数0.985194校正可决系数0.982077DW检验值1.205711回归系数5967.6910.5284870.2632880.191794-5.38491t检验值4.2055982.3793351.8221790.194349-3.21103F检验值267.7944多重可决系数0.982572校正可决系数0.978903DW检验值0.920439(4)三元回归t0.025 (20) =2.0860 F0.05 (3,20) =3.10 DW(24,

25、4) =(1.10,1.66)CX1X2X3X4X5X6回归系数944.9477-0.065830.1847631.02699t检验值7.039605-5.560982.47064130.57856F检验值830.7805多重可决系数0.992039校正可决系数0.990845DW检验值1.359583回归系数754.1368-0.02437-0.401670.653995t检验值3.237768-1.22452-2.9796617.0962F检验值267.1602多重可决系数0.975654校正可决系数0.972002DW检验值1.331127回归系数688.50070.0820830.19

26、2075-1.59466t检验值0.402211.1011030.367925-0.3945F检验值11.00707多重可决系数0.622792校正可决系数0.566211DW检验值0.262355回归系数-2984.930.077246-0.001843.346741t检验值-0.40331.030484-0.002880.422033F检验值11.02678多重可决系数0.623213校正可决系数0.566695DW检验值0.186415回归系数1014.589-0.04960.8255160.134308t检验值7.895961-6.692377.8390562.018427F检验值76

27、5.6553多重可决系数0.991368校正可决系数0.990073DW检验值1.458427回归系数1140.382-0.040821.0272580.239972t检验值4.253105-6.0223526.754280.362488F检验值639.1708多重可决系数0.989677校正可决系数0.988129DW检验值1.124506回归系数211.3363-0.047281.0229971.108682t检验值0.201991-4.85627.204070.979563F检验值665.7386多重可决系数0.990085校正可决系数0.988598DW检验值1.259854回归系数9

28、96.742-0.06590.6303-2.19617t检验值2.202211-5.0557615.42635-1.96983F检验值219.7672多重可决系数0.970558校正可决系数0.966142DW检验值1.308779回归系数7396.781-0.032780.68514-7.27563t检验值5.661471-2.9242922.95044-5.56857F检验值477.0035多重可决系数0.986217校正可决系数0.984149DW检验值1.064481回归系数-3913.280.071705-2.858415.393859t检验值-0.601421.350437-0.6

29、47680.761986F检验值11.39788多重可决系数0.630953校正可决系数0.575596DW检验值0.231366回归系数1260.133-0.324280.6182990.231776t检验值7.074553-3.414213.103141.716939F检验值370.7082多重可决系数0.982334校正可决系数0.979684DW检验值0.811403回归系数1479.375-0.179190.950467-0.23326t检验值4.048169-2.9570419.39004-0.24897F检验值323.2501多重可决系数0.979793校正可决系数0.97676

30、2DW检验值0.640313回归系数2275.621-0.137320.955014-0.94843t检验值1.335044-1.2655919.40988-0.51695F检验值326.6254多重可决系数0.979998校正可决系数0.976997DW检验值0.628514回归系数1584.468-0.492230.640832-1.79978t检验值4.100375-6.3093118.35083-1.82692F检验值290.5721多重可决系数0.977571校正可决系数0.974207DW检验值1.146217回归系数6932.931-0.247720.673435-6.44355

31、t检验值4.585283-2.6298522.86422-3.97493F检验值449.2997多重可决系数0.985379校正可决系数0.983186DW检验值0.927928回归系数534.87370.781679-2.30936-0.39076t检验值0.0850232.032244-0.50643-0.05293F检验值10.18956多重可决系数0.604498校正可决系数0.545173DW检验值0.252626回归系数1470.441.048871-0.11907-0.77056t检验值3.447685.385918-1.10492-0.65736F检验值236.9005多重可决

32、系数0.972629校正可决系数0.968523DW检验值0.494783回归系数5920.3440.5275950.262953-5.2632t检验值4.3408222.4351261.865417-3.46766F检验值375.0928多重可决系数0.982537校正可决系数0.979918DW检验值0.896638回归系数4097.9120.9390410.1955-3.09461t检验值3.88831518.799180.181878-2.63239F检验值302.4228多重可决系数0.978431校正可决系数0.975196DW检验值0.539237回归系数9791.4940.64

33、7426-0.07251-9.68627t检验值7.82995819.73352-0.07082-6.94176F检验值332.2238多重可决系数0.980328校正可决系数0.977377DW检验值0.456285(5)二元回归 HYPERLINK / t0.025 (21) =2.0796 F0.05 (2,21) =3.47 DW(24,3) =(1.19,1.55)CX1X2X3X4X5X6回归系数155.27790.0809390.15777t检验值0.1300291.1091050.312858F检验值17.1212多重可决系数0.619857校正可决系数0.583653DW检验

34、值0.227797回归系数1233.675-0.039751.026011t检验值16.7548-6.654627.4024F检验值1000.055多重可决系数0.98961校正可决系数0.98862DW检验值1.054957回归系数134.7056-0.072990.626326t检验值1.093536-5.4638914.39251F检验值288.1851多重可决系数0.964846校正可决系数0.961498DW检验值1.141334回归系数892.11180.108128-1.34692t检验值0.5624294.724436-0.34511F检验值17.14898多重可决系数0.62

35、0239校正可决系数0.584071DW检验值0.270564回归系数-2974.280.0770933.333221t检验值-0.475511.4908220.534566F检验值17.36717多重可决系数0.623213校正可决系数0.587328DW检验值0.186489回归系数1398.81-0.18610.95127t检验值8.42873-3.530519.8974F检验值507.513多重可决系数0.97973校正可决系数0.9778DW检验值0.65951回归系数946.2852-0.537020.639497t检验值5.433341-6.8780817.37507F检验值39

36、0.6987多重可决系数0.973828校正可决系数0.971336DW检验值1.099068回归系数-141.0990.737904-1.42151t检验值-0.091344.485613-0.35061F检验值15.74511多重可决系数0.599926校正可决系数0.561823DW检验值0.2442回归系数-45820.4635614.300705t检验值-0.632181.0255370.545262F检验值15.96218多重可决系数0.603207校正可决系数0.565417DW检验值0.169843回归系数1230.8341.109348-0.15882t检验值5.634959

37、6.552363-1.80509F检验值365.0053多重可决系数0.972038校正可决系数0.969375DW检验值0.505378回归系数1507.6260.837334-1.49733t检验值3.52742623.35537-1.53515F检验值351.0485多重可决系数0.970958校正可决系数0.968192DW检验值0.442225回归系数4044.860.937248-2.96669t检验值4.08925119.59613-3.22448F检验值475.512多重可决系数0.978396校正可决系数0.976338DW检验值0.524999回归系数1481.4810.4

38、51519-3.75313t检验值2.27382314.9762-2.37796F检验值146.053多重可决系数0.93293校正可决系数0.926542DW检验值1.662665回归系数9814.2110.647854-9.73745t检验值9.31932420.5835-8.35786F检验值523.1187多重可决系数0.980323校正可决系数0.978449DW检验值0.461444回归系数-12002.9-3.7922113.99948t检验值-4.6347-0.852424.455649F检验值15.57412多重可决系数0.597302校正可决系数0.55895DW检验值0.

39、203354(6)一元回归t0.025 (22) =2.739 F0.05 (1,22) =4.30 DW(24,2) =(1.27,1.45)CX1X2X3X4X5X6回归系数362.53450.103093t检验值0.921555.96695F检验值35.60449多重可决系数0.618085校正可决系数0.600726DW检验值0.24122回归系数-642.5320.700486t检验值-1.131495.715816F检验值32.67055多重可决系数0.59759校正可决系数0.579298DW检验值0.213181回归系数863.26720.808572t检验值10.396852

40、5.67285F检验值659.0951多重可决系数0.967699校正可决系数0.966231DW检验值0.297529回归系数-16.85740.408569t检验值-0.0923815.37623F检验值236.4285多重可决系数0.91487校正可决系数0.911001DW检验值0.171483回归系数-2471.0810.40715t检验值-1.242342.466333F检验值6.0828多重可决系数0.216602校正可决系数0.180993DW检验值0.325585回归系数-11552.512.07638t检验值-4.584795.549794F检验值30.80021多重可决系

41、数0.583335校正可决系数0.564396DW检验值0.127662注:图表中加粗的部分为t检验、F检验均通过的模型。2. 选取的模型。我们选取解释变量为社会商品零售总额、受灾面积这两个解释变量为要分析模型的解释变量。变量模型为: Y=1481.481+0.451519X4-3.75313X5+ei（2.273823）（14.9762） （2.37796）DW=1.662665 F=146.053 R2=0.93293 R2=0.926542 HYPERLINK / 这样，我们可以认为社会商品零售总额和受灾面积这两个因素对财政收入的影响比较显著。模型可以理解为：在受灾面积不变的情况下，社会商品零售总额每增加1亿元，财政收入会增加0.451519亿元；在社会商品零售总额不变的情况下，受灾面积每增加1万公顷，财政收入会随之减少3.75313亿元。多重可决系数值为0.93293，其统计意义为：在Y的总变差中，有93.293%是可由X4、X5共同做出解释的，剩下的不可解释的6.707%是受误差项所