关于跨国公司销售与贸易的临近-集中模型的实证检验(共60页)

1、An Empirical Assessment of theProximity-Concentration Trade-off Between Multinational Sales and Trade （关于跨国公司销售与贸易(moy)的临近-集中模型的实证(shzhng)检验） This paper examines the extent to which multinational location decisions reflect a trade-off between achieving proximity to customers and concentrating produc

2、tion to achieve scale economies.(这篇文章检验了跨国公司(ku u n s)的区位选择反映跨国公司在获取临近消费者的优势和集中生产以获取规模经济之间权衡的程度) It finds that overseas production by multinationals increases relative to exports the higher are transport costs and trade barriers and the lower are investment barriers and scale economies at the plant

3、level relative to the corporate level. However, it is not possible to reject a model with only country and industry effects（本文发现如果运输成本和贸易壁垒越高，同时投资壁垒以及工厂层面的规模经济相对于企业层面的规模经济越低的话，跨国公司在国外生产的产品相对于出口到国外的产品会增加）. The evidence also suggests that multinational activity is more likely the more similar are the

4、home and foreign markets contrary to conventional wisdom（检验还发现跨国公司更倾向于在与国内市场更相似的国外市场上活动，这与传统观点相悖。）. (JEL F12, F21, F23) Multinational enterprises play a key role in international competition（跨国公司在国际竞争中扮演关键角色）. Alan Rugman(1988) estimates that the largest 500 multinationals control over one-half of g

5、lobal trade flows, and one-fifth of global GDP（克鲁格曼估算全球规模最大的500家跨国公司控制着超过一半全球贸易流量和十五分之一的全球CDP）. For countries that have an extensive network of overseas affiliates, such as the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, the sales of these affiliates tend to swamp export flo

6、ws（由于一些国家有着广泛的海外分支机构网，例如美国、英国，荷兰、瑞士，这些分支机构的销售量将使出口流量减少）. In manufacturing and primary goods alone, local sales by U.S.-owned affiliates abroad are over four times greater than U.S. exports to the United Kingdom, Germany, Norway, Brazil, and Spain（单单就制造业和初级产品，美国的海外分支机构在英国、德国、挪威、巴西、西班牙这些国家本土的销售量是美国出口到

7、这些国家的出口额的四倍）. It is also striking that, contrary to conventional wisdom, a large and growing share of multinational activity occurs between industrialized countries as both the source and destination markets, rather than flowing from North to South（同样令人震惊的是，与传统的观点相反，很大一部分的跨国公司活动发生在工业化国家之间，这些工业化国家即是发

8、出地也是目的地，而不是发生在在南北国家之间，而且比例还在增长。）. Between 1961 and 1988, over half of all direct investment outflows from the five largest industrialized countries was absorbed by other countries within the same group; by 1988, this share had risen to nearly 70 percent (De Anne Julius, 1990)（1961年到1988年，全球最大的五个工业化国

9、家的对外直接投资额中有超过一半的金额被同样是工业化国家的其他国家所吸收，截止1988年，该比例已经上升到接近70%）. This paper explores the extent to which multinational production location decisions can be explained by a trade-off between maximizing proximity to customers and concentrating production to achieve scale economies (Paul Krugman, 1983; Ignat

10、ius Horstman and James Markusen, 1992; Brainard, 1993a)(本文探索了跨国公司生产的区位选择(xunz)在多大程度上可以被跨国公司在最大化临近消费者的优势和最大化集中生产的规模经济优势之间的权衡所解释). The proximity-concentration hypothesis predicts that firms are more likely to expand production horizontally across borders the higher are transport costs and trade barrie

11、rs and the lower are investment barriers and the size of scale economies at the plant level relative to the corporate level（临近集中假说认为运输成本和贸易壁垒越高，同时投资壁垒越低，工厂层面的规模经济相对于企业(qy)层面的规模经济越低，则企业就会越倾向于水平(shupng)扩张） These predictions differ substantially from the dominant explanation of multinational activity w

12、ithin traditional trade theory (Elhanan Helpman, 1984; James Markusen, 1984; Helpman and Krugman, 1985; Wilfred Ethierand Henrik Horn, 1990)（这些预测同基于传统贸易理论对跨国公司(ku u n s)活动进行解释的主流观点有着更本性的区别）. The tradition explanation, which can be termed the factor proportions hypothesis, holds that firms integrate

13、production vertically across borders to take advantage of factor price differences associated with different relative factor supplies (传统的解释被称为要素禀赋假说，该假说认为企业跨越国界垂直整合生产(shngchn)是为了和不同的要素价格相联系的不同要素的相对禀赋). This paper uses data on multinationals to examine whether the share of total sales to foreign mar

14、kets accounted for by overseas affiliate production, as opposed to exports, can be explained by the proximity-concentration hypothesis（本文利用跨国公司的相关数据检验海外(hiwi)分支机构的销售量占海外市场销售总额的份额，和出口额所占的份额是否可以被临近集中假说解释）. It finds that affiliate production rises as a share of total foreign sales the greater are trans

15、port costs and foreign trade barriers and the lower are foreign investment barriers and scale economies at the plant level relative to the corporate level（检验发现如果运输成本和贸易壁垒越高，同时投资壁垒越低，工厂层面的规模经济相对于企业层面的规模经济越低，那么海外分支机构的销售额占整个海外市场销售额的比例将会增加）. Further, it finds that the effects of trade and investment bar

16、riers on the levels of trade and affiliate sales are similar to their effects on the relative shares, even though the hypothesis applies directly only to the shares（另外，本文还发现贸易和投资壁垒对贸易量和海外分支机构的销售量的影响与他们对相对份额的影响类似，尽管假说仅仅是应用于份额）. Similarly, the level of trade is decreasing in transport costs, as predic

17、ted（同样的，正如预测的那样，贸易水平由于运输成本的原因正在下降）. However, an increase in transport costs does not raise either the level of affiliate sales or the probability of observing any affiliate sales in a market（然而，运输成本的增加并没有使海外分支机构的销售水平增加或也没有在任何一个市场上的观测到分支机构的销售存在这种可能性）. In addition, it is not possible to reject a model

18、 with only industry and country fixed effects（另外，仅仅因为国家和产业上的固定效应就拒绝这个模型是不合适的）. These findings contrast with past research, which has found that distance is insignificant in explaining multinational activities(Robert Lipsey and Merle Yahr Weiss, 1981; Magnus Blomstrom et al., 1988)（这些发现(fxin)和以前的一些研究

19、相左，以前的一些研究认为距离在解释跨国公司行为上是无关紧要的）. The difference is attributable in part to a more accurate measure of transport costs and in part to a different estimation approach（这些差别，一部分可以归于对运输成本的测量(cling)更加精确了，另一部分可以归于估计方法的不同）. The estimates avoid the simultaneity problems （联立性偏误）between affiliate production an

20、d exports encountered in earlier work by using the share of affiliate production in total foreign sales as the dependent variable and by using an instrumental-variables specification for estimating the levels（该估计(gj)通过将海外分支机构销售额占国外销售总额的比重作为因变量并用一个工具变量来估计这个数值，以避免在早期工作中遇到的联立性偏误问题）. In addition, the te

21、sts presented below are the first to measure the role of scale economies（另外下文将提供的检验，是首次对规模经济影响的测量）. Most recent imperfect-competition models of multinationals presume that multinational firms possess proprietary advantages, which are most profitably exploited internally for reasons such as a symmetr

22、ic information and control over quality or technology diffusion (Ethier, 1986; Horstmann and Markusen,1987; John Dunning, 1988; Horst Raff, 1992; Ethier and Markusen, 1993)（最近的大多数跨国公司不完全竞争模型假设跨国公司有专有的优势，由于一些原因这些优势在国内被以有利的方式利用着，例如信息的对称性和质量控制以及技术的扩散）. In tests that are loosely related to theory, the p

23、aper finds support for the internalization hypothesis and sheds some light on circumstances in which exploiting proprietary advantages requires firms to establish a local presence in the foreign market（检验结果与理论只有很松散的关联，文章为内部化假说找到了支撑，在都认为利用专有优势需要在国外市场建立机构的环境下散发了些光芒）.I. Conceptual FrameworkThis section

24、 reviews the proximity concentration hypothesis in order to motivate the empirical tests and then briefly contrasts the factor-proportions hypothesis.（该部分(b fen)回顾了临近集中(jzhng)假说以便引出实证检验，并且对要素禀赋理论经行一个(y )简短的比较。）A. Proximity-Concentration Trade-offThe proximity-concentration hypothesis predicts that f

25、irms should expand horizontally across borders whenever the advantages of access to the destination market outweigh the advantages from production scale economies（临近集中假说认为当靠近目标市场的优势比生产的规模经济的优势更重要使，企业应该跨越国界进行水平扩张。）. Consider a model with two factors, two countries, and two sectors（考虑一个两种要素、两个国家、两个部门的

26、模型）. One sector produces a homogeneous good using constant-returns-to-scale technology, and the other produces differentiated goods using increasing-returns-to-scale technology（一个部门生产同质化产品，使用规模报酬不变技术；另一个部门生产异质化产品使用规模报酬递增的技术。）. By making several simplifying assumptions, such as symmetry in factor end

27、owments and consumer preferences, homothetic preferences across the two aggregate goods, and demand characterized by constant elasticity of substitution (below 1) among different varieties of the differentiated product, the equilibrium location decisions of firms can be represented very simply（通过几个简

28、单的假设，例如要素禀赋和消费的偏好是对称的、在两类商品的总量上具有类似的偏好、需求函数在差异化产品的不同种类上具有不变的替代弹性等，则企业的均衡选择就可以很简单的表示了）. Assume that technology in the differentiated sector is characterized by increasing return sat the firm level due to some corporate activity unique to the firm, such as R&D, which can be spread among any number of

29、production facilities with undiminished value（假设差异化部门在企业层面上具有规模收益递增的特点是由于公司的一些独特的企业行为，例如研发(yn f)可以在不减少其价值(jizh)的的基础(jch)上扩散任意数量的生产设备）. The invention of each variety could require a fixed cost, R( ), which is a function of the local wage, wi, in market i（每一种产品的发明都需要一种固定成本R,它是市场i的工资wi的函数）. Assume furt

30、her there are scale economies at the plant level, such that concentrating production lowers unit costs: production operations are characterized by a fixed cost, F(w,), associated with each manufacturing plant, and a constant marginal cost, V ( wi ) both of which are functions of the local wage.（进一步的

31、假设差异化部门在工厂层面也具有规模经济：集中生产会降低单位固定成本，产品生产具有固定成本F(w)，该成本和每个制造工厂有关；以及一个有不变的边际成本V（w）,两者都是本地工资的函数）Further, assume that production activities and corporate activities are geographically separable at no cost（更进一步的，假设生产活动和公司经营活动在地理上是分离的并且没有成本）. Then production costs for a plant located in market i producing q

32、uantity qi are继而在市场i上的工厂生产数量为qi单位的产品的生产成本是regardless of the location of the firms head-quarters（不考虑企业(qy)的总部所在地）. Finally, exporting is assumed to incur per-unit costs associated with trade barriers and transport costs that are increasing in distance（最后出口的单位成本被假设为与贸易壁垒(mo y b li)和运输成本相关，其中运输成本随着距离的增

33、加而增加）. For some amount q. produced in market a = A, B, the amount that survives shipment to the foreign market is decreasing in the distance between the two markets, D, and the transport cost, T: qae-(T+D) 在市场(shchng)a(a=A或B)上生产的一定数量产品，幸运的被装运到外国市场的数量随着两个市场的距离D的增加和运输成本T: qae-(T+D)的增加而减少）Assume furthe

34、r that the market structure in the differentiated-products sector is characterized by Chamberlinian monopolistic competition(假设差异化产品部门的市场结构具有张伯伦垄断竞争(jngzhng)特点). Firms in both markets simultaneously choose their plant configurations and their prices, taking as given their competitors configurations

35、and pricing（企业在两个市场上同时决定各自(gz)的工厂布局和产品价格，竞争对手的布局和价格视为给定的）. Market equilibrium is determined by three conditions: firms choose prices to equate marginal revenues and marginal costs, free entry drives profits to zero, and no firm has an incentive to change its plant configuration given the configurati

36、ons of other firms（则市场均衡有以下三个条件决定：企业选择使边际成本等于边际产出的价格、零进入(jnr)成本使利润为零、在给定竞争对手的工厂布局不变的条件下企业并没有动力去改变自己的工厂布局。）Assuming that equilibrium in the constant-returns-to-scale, homogeneous sector ties down the equilibrium wage, the wage will be equal across countries wi, i = A, B, for equal factor endowments（假

37、定同质产品部门在规模报酬不变处均衡,均衡时有着不变的均衡工资，并且两个国家的工资是相同的wi, i = A, B，因为这两个国家有着相同的要素禀赋）. In the absence of factor price differences, firms choose between producing overseas and exporting by comparing the additional variable cost of exporting against the additional fixed cost of opening a plant abroad（由于不存在要素价格上的

38、差别，所以企业通过比较出口的额外可变成本和在海外设立工厂的额外固定成本来选择是要在海外生产还是要出口）.There are three possible equilibria: one in which all firms operate as multinationals with plants in both markets, a second in which all firms have a single plant and export to the foreign market, and a third in which multinationals and single-plan

39、t firms coexist（有三个可能的均衡点：一个是所有的公司都成为跨国公司，在两个市场上都建有工厂；第二个是所有的企业都只有(zhyu)一个工厂，并且出口到国外市场；第三个是跨国公司和单一工厂企业并存）. The conditions for the three equilibria are三种均衡的条件(tiojin)分别是：A pure multinational equilibrium, where all firms have plants in both markets, is more likely the higher are transport costs and tr

40、ade barriers, and the smaller is the fixed cost at the plant level relative to the corporate level当运输成本和贸易壁垒成本较高以及工厂层面的固定成本相对于企业层面的固定成本较小时，一个所有的企业都在两个(lin )市场上设有工厂的纯理论性均衡是有可能. In this equilibrium, multinational production completely supplants trade in final goods, there is trade only in invisible co

41、rporate services, and there is two-way双向的 multinational activity in the same industry在这个均衡中，跨国生产完全代替了最终产品的贸易，仅在看不见的企业服务上有贸易，而且在同一产业内存在着双向跨国活动. A pure trade equilibrium, where all firms have a single plant located in the same market as their headquarters, arises under reverse conditions所有的企业都仅仅在母公司所在

42、地有一个工厂的一个纯理论均衡发生在相反的情况下. It is characterized by two-way trade in differentiated final goods, and-if factor proportions are equalall trade is intraindustry, as predicted by a differentiated-products model of trade (Helpman and Krugman, 1985)这种均衡的特点是差异化的最终产品上的双向贸易，以及如果要素比例相等所有的贸易都是产业内贸易，正如差异化产品贸易模型所预测

43、的那样In the intermediate range of parameter values, there is a third equilibrium, in which multinational firms coexist with single-plant, single-country firms在中间范围的参数值中有第三种均衡(jnhng)，即跨国公司和一国家一工厂模式共存. In the mixed equilibrium, some fraction, , of firms in each market has a single production facility an

44、d exports, and the remaining fraction has production facilities in both markets，在这种混合(hnh)均衡的情况下，一部分公司在各自(gz)的市场上有单一的工厂并且进行贸易，剩下的公司在两个市场上都有生产设施. For a given number of firms, the proportion that export, (F, T, D), is greater the greater is the fixed plant cost, and the smaller are transport costs, tr

45、ade barriers, and the size of each market给定企业的数量，则工厂的固定成本越高，运输成本、贸易壁垒、市场规模越小出口企业的比重(F, T, D),就越高，. In this mixed equilibrium, there is both two-way trade in final goods and two-way multinational production在这种混合均衡情况下，双向的最终产品贸易和双向的跨国公司生产都存在. Given the share of single-plant exporters, (-), the share of

46、 total sales into the foreign market accounted for by exports, X, as opposed to multinational sales, S, is greater the lower are transport costs and trade barriers, and the higher is the fixed cost of production给定单一工厂出口企业的比重(-)，出口占国外销售总额的比重X, 与跨国公司的销售比重S截然相反，运输成本越低贸易壁垒越小以及生产的固定成本越高，和X的值就越大: (since i

47、s increasing in plant fixed costs and decreasing in transport costs and trade barriers)（随着工厂固定成本的增加而增加，随着运输成本和贸易壁垒(mo y b li)的减少而增加）.The model can be elaborated in a variety of ways（该模型可以(ky)通过多种方式细化）. It can be extended to allow for multiple production stages, each of which is characterized by a di

48、fferent trade-off between proximity and concentration advantages可以(ky)通过允许多个生产阶段来扩展模型，每一个生产阶段都是临近和集中优势的一个不同的均衡. The addition of one or more production stages downstream generates intraindustry trade in intermediate goods增加一个或更多的下游生产阶段会产生产业内的中间品贸易. This complicates the interpretation of the results b

49、elow这就使本文下面的解释复杂化了, since the data for many of the industry categories do not distinguish between intermediate and final goods因为包含很多行业类别的数据并对中间品和最终产品进行区分. Second, when market sizes differ (all else equal), a greater number of varieties of the differentiated good will be produced in the larger market

50、 and exported to the smaller market, thereby minimizing transport costs for the greater concentration of customers第二，当市场的规模不同（其他都一样）规模更大的市场将会生产种类更多的差异化产品，并出口到规模较小的市场上，从而为消费者密度更大的国家最小化了运输成本. Third, corporate income taxes affect location decisions第三，企业所得税会影响公司的区位选择. Corporate headquarters will migrate

51、 to the location with the lower income tax, all else equal, and it will be more profitable to concentrate production in the low-tax location企业总部将会迁移到所得税更少的地方，其他条件都一样的情况下，在税负较低的地方集中进行生产将使企业获得更高的利润.B. Factor Proportions要素(yo s)比例The factor-proportions hypothesis similarly focuses on plant-location dec

52、isions across markets but explains multinational activity in terms of vertical integration motivated by access to factor supplies要素禀赋假说同样致力于解释工厂在不同市场上的区位选择，但是它根据由接近要素供给(gngj)地推动的垂直一体化来对跨国公司行为进行(jnxng)解释. The Helpman model uses the same differentiated-products framework (with multiplant economies of

53、scale) to examine the effect of differences in relative factor supplies on production-location decisions（Helpman的理论同样运用产品异质化框架（有着多工厂的规模经济），来检验要素供给的相对差别对生产的区位选择的决定的影响）. The model predicts that multinational firms with corporate headquarters located in one market and a single production plant located

54、in the other market will arise to exploit potential factor cost differentials, as long as corporate and production activities have different factor intensities模型预测只要企业行为和生产行为有着不同的要素密集度，总部位于一个市场并且有工厂位于另一个市场的跨国公司将出现，以利用潜在的生产要素成本差异. To illustrate, assume that corporate activities are relatively more ca

55、pital intensive than production activities为了说明(shumng)，假设企业活动相对于生产活动有更高的资本密集度. When relative factor endowments are sufficiently similar across countries that factor prices are equalized through trade, there is no incentive for cross-border investment, and there is two-way trade in differentiated pro

56、ducts and one-way trade in homogeneous products reflecting factor-proportion differences当两国的相对要素禀赋充分相似时，贸易会使得要素价格均等化，这时并没有跨国直接投资的动机，在差异化部门存在双向贸易，同质化产品(chnpn)部门存在单项贸易反映了要素比例的差异. When relative factor supplies differ sufficiently that factor prices are not equalized through trade, some of the firms in

57、the differentiated sector locate their corporate headquarters in the relatively capital-abundant economy and their production in the relatively labor-abundant economy, and export back to the headquarters market如果(rgu)要素禀赋供给充分的不同，要输价格就不会因为贸易而趋同，差异化品部门的一些公司将总部设在资本要素相对密集的经济体中，将生产产品的分支机构设在劳动力相对丰富的经济体中，同

58、时向总部所在市场出口. Thus, with cross-border investment motivated solely by factor-proportions differences, multinational activities only arise in a single direction within an industry, in single-plant firms, and between economies with large factor-proportions differences因此，跨国投资单独的被要素比例的不同驱动，跨国公司行为仅在单一行业，单一工

59、厂公司，存在巨大要素禀赋差异的经济体之间单向发生. With two stages in the production process (e.g., corporate activities and production), multinationals generate interindustry trade of final goods在两阶段生产过程中（如企业和工厂）跨国公司会产生关于最终产品的产业内贸易的. With additional stages (such as assembly), multinationals may generate interindustry trade

60、 of both final goods and intermediates, but again flowing across borders in only one direction at each vertical stage.若增加生产阶段（如组装），跨国公司就会产生最终产品和中间产品的产业内贸易，不过在每个垂直化阶段都是单向的Of course, these two models are compatible. When both factor-proportion differences and a proximity-concentration trade-off are co