Lex专栏：亚洲食品企业的下一步？培训讲学

1、Good is good, but better carries it.精益求精，善益求善。Lex专栏：亚洲食品企业的下一步？-Lex_Noodlesandmilk:dealtime?Milkdrinksornoodles?BotharebiggerinAsia,notablyChina,thanotherpartsoftheworld.BetterearningsfromtheformerdroveWantWanthigheronWednesdaywhileTingyiandUni-PresidentChina,thenoodlekingsembroiledinapricewar,boths

2、lipped.Stepbackhoweverandallthreehavemoreincommonthantheirsnackspecialitiessuggest.Theyallenjoyhighvaluationsandfaceslowingorganicgrowth.牛奶饮料还是面条？相比世界其他地区，两者在亚洲（尤其中国）都是更大的生意。来自前者的更高盈利周三推高旺旺集团(WantWant)股价，而两家开打价格战的面条大王康师傅(Tingyi)和统一企业中国(Uni-PresidentChina)股价都有下滑。然而退一步说，三者之间的共同点多于它们在零食产品范围上的差异。它们都享有高估

3、值，且都面临有机增长的放缓。Growthinsweetsandchocolatesaleshasdroppedbelow10percentforthefirsttimeinadecade,accordingtoStandardChartered.Growthininstantnoodleconsumptionpercapitaisheadingthesameway,havingbeennearer20percentthreeyearsago.Juicedrinksalesarerisingatlessthanhalftheratethreeyearsago.Therearevariousexp

4、lanationsincludingChinasslowingeconomicgrowthandariseinhealthconsciousnessamongits1.3bnconsumers(bottledwatersalesarestillrising16percentayear).根据渣打(StandardChartered)的数据，糖果和巧克力的销售增长10年来首次降至10%以下。人均方便面消费增长也同样下滑，三年前的增速曾经更接近20%。果汁饮料的销售增长速度不到三年前的一半。对此有很多不同的解释，包括中国正在放缓的经济增长，以及其13亿消费者健康意识的提高（瓶装水销售仍以每年16%

5、的速度增长）。Yetallthreecompaniesaretradingonbetween26and28timesexpectedearningsapremiumtoEuropeanandAmericanrivalssuchasNestlandKraftFoodson19and17timesrespectively.NoneofthosesectorgrowthratesareadisasterfortheAsiansnackgroups.ButtheywillfacepressuretojustifyratingsmoreusuallyequatedwithHermesorMichaelK

6、orsthancompaniesbattlingoverbeefnoodles,chocolatemilkandricecrackers.尽管如此，这三家公司的股价都达到预期盈利的26倍至28倍相比欧洲和美国的竞争对手，这三家公司的股价存在溢价，例如，雀巢(Nestl)和卡夫食品(KraftFoods)的市盈率分别是19倍和17倍。这些行业增长数据对亚洲的零食生产集团来说并非灾难。但他们将会面临压力，要求他们证明自己的市盈率为何更接近奢侈品牌爱马仕(Hermes)和迈克尔高司(MichaelKors)，而不是生产牛肉面、巧克力牛奶和米果的同行业竞争者。Onepossibleresponsewo

7、uldbetousethosehighlyratedsharestobuyinbrandsormoveintonewmarkets.Thatwouldfitwithaconsolidating,maturingindustry.WantWantandTingyialsoholdnetcashof$802mand$99mrespectively.Uni-Presidenthasnetdebt,butitisfairlymodestasaproportionofearningsandinvestorswholovethestockasmuchastheyappeartoshouldallowitsomeleeway.Donewell,smallishdealswouldbeagooduseofsuchluxuryvaluations.一种可能的回应将是利用这些高昂的股价收购新品牌，或进入新市场。这样做符合一个走向整合、趋于