系统动力学：第1章 系统动力学的历史与未来

1、系统动力学 System Dynamics教材：系统动力学-(第二版) 钟永光、贾晓菁、钱颖，科学出版社 2013.8.1参考书：系统动力学/王其藩著，上海财经大学出版社,2009课程安排：32课时：24课堂+8上机考核方式：作业占10%,闭卷考试占60%,课堂表现占10%实验占20%。 课程章节第一篇 系统动力学理论篇第1章 系统动力学的历史与未来第2章 系统的模型化第3章 系统动力学建模过程第4章 动态系统的行为模式与结构第5章 因果回路图第6章 存量流量图第7章 简单系统的动态:一阶系统和二阶系统第8章 典型结构的动态1:延迟第9章 典型结构的动态2:路径依赖与正反馈第10章 典型结构的

2、动态3:老化链与协流第11章 典型结构的动态4:系统基模第12章 流率基本入树建模法和反馈环计算法第13章 模型测试第二篇 系统动力学应用篇第14章 新产品的销售过程建模第15章 管理可再生能源游戏第1章 系统动力学的历史与未来System dynamics was created during the mid-1950s by Professor Jay W. Forrester of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.系统动力学出现于1956年，创始人为美国麻省理工学院的福瑞斯特教授。Prof. Jay W. ForresterUniver

3、sity of Nebraska, BS 39, Electrical Engineering MIT, SM 45, Electrical EngineeringInvented random-access magnetic-core memory during the first wave of modern digital computersPioneered the field of system dynamics - analysis of the behavior of systems. Prof. Jay W. ForresterIndustrial Dynamics, 1961

4、Principles of Systems, 1968Urban Dynamics, 1969World Dynamics, 1971The Bullwhip EffectProf. Jay W. ForresterThe System Dynamics National Model remains unfinished long wave K-12 EducationThe club of RomeA global think tank and centre of innovation and initiativeThe Club of Romes mission is to act as

5、a global catalyst of change that is free of any political, ideological or business interest. The club of RomeThe limits to growth, Dennis Meadows, 1972Beyond the limits, Dennis Meadows, et al, 1992Prof. Dennis MeadowsProfessor of Systems Policy and Social Science ResearchDirector of the Institute fo

6、r Policy and Social Science Research, University of New Hampshire Past President of the International System Dynamics Society and the International Simulation and Games Association Dr. Peter Senge（彼得圣吉）The Fifth Discipline: the Art and Practice of the Learning Organization, 1990经典商业教育誉为影响最深远的管理书籍之一、

7、世界企业学会(World Business Academy)最高荣誉的开拓者奖、哈佛商业评论评为近百年最具影响力的管理类图书 。The five disciplines第一项修炼：自我超越（Personal Mastery）：发展自身，而不是除掉什么。第二项修炼：改善心智模式（Improving Mental Models）：发掘内心世界的图象（假设、成见等），使这些图象浮上表面，并严加审视。有效的表达自己的想法，并以开放的心灵容纳别人的想法。第三项修炼：建立共同愿景（Building Shared Vision）：整合个人愿景，转化为能够鼓舞组织的共同愿景。注意是“整合”，是帮助组织培养成员

8、主动而真诚的奉献和投入，而非被动的遵从，否则会产生反效果。第四项修炼：团体学习（Teaml Learning）第五项修炼：系统思考（Systems Thinking）Systems Archetypes 反应迟缓的调节环路(Balancing Loop with Time Delay)(反应迟缓)成长上限(Limits to Growth)舍本逐末(Shifting the Burden)目标侵蚀(Eroding Goals)恶性竞争(Escalation)富者愈富(Success to the Successful)共同悲剧(Tragedy of the Commons)引鸩止渴(Fixes

9、 and Fail)成长与投资不足(Growth and Underinvestment)系统思考的工具十大基模Prof. John StermanBusiness Dynamics: System Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World, 2000The Beer GameSterman, J., 1989. Modelling managerial behaviour: Misperceptions of feedback in a dynamic decision making experiment. Management Science 35

10、 (3), 321-339. 44444RetailerWholesalerDistributorFactoryCustomerSupplierSystem Dynamics in China国内系统动力学发展状况 20世纪70年代末系统动力学引入我国,其中杨通谊, 王其藩,许庆瑞,陶在朴,胡玉奎贾仁安等专家学者是先驱和积极倡导者。1986年国内成立系统动力学学会筹委会，1990年正式成立国际系统动力学学会中国分会，1993 年正式成立中国系统工程学会系统动力学专业委员会。至今，国内系统动力学应用领域几乎涉及人类社会与自然科学的所有领域。其中，水土资源、农林、生态领域，宏观、区域经济、可持续发

11、展、城市规划领域，能源、矿藏及其安全领域，物流、供应链、库存领域，企业、战略、创新管理领域，金融、财务、保险、信用领域，交通、运输、调度领域，服务、营销、客户关系领域，军事、武器、战略领域，公共安全、行政管理领域，教育、教学领域等，是系统动力学应用研究最热门的领域。Development of computer modeling language for SDSIMPLE (Simulation of Industrial Management Problems with Lots of Equations) , Richard Bennett , 1958 DYNAMO (DYNAmic M

12、Odels), Phyllis Fox and Alexander Pugh, 1959Industrial applicationsGeneral Electric, the mid-1950s, Forrester, hand simulationTo show how the instability in GE employment was due to the internal structure of the firm and not to an external force such as the business cycle Industrial applicationsInga

13、lls Shipbuilding of Pascagoula vs US Navy, 1978, Pugh-Roberts Associates of CambridgeIngalls received $447 million out of courtIndustrial applicationsBP GAS, 2002, BP & Ventana, VensimLiquefied Natural Gas plant designLNGPaper.pdfIndustrial applicationsFord Motor Company, PowersimWith Powersims soft

14、ware and consulting expertise, users have the ability to reduce a complex subject to its essence, put it in a learning environment, critique assumptions and create various scenarios. This helps managers focus on what adds the most value. -Vic Leo, Ford Motor CompanySystem DynamicsA powerful methodol

15、ogy for framing, understanding, and discussing complex policy issues and problems. System dynamicsSystem dynamics is a methodology for studying and managing complex feedback systems, such as one finds in business and other social systems. FeedbackThe span of applicationscorporate planning and policy

16、 design public management and policybiological and medical modelingenergy and the environment dynamic decision making complex nonlinear dynamicstheory development in the natural and social sciences Modeling ProcessProblem ArticulationCausal Loop DiagramStock and Flow DiagramTranslate into modeling softwareVerify the ModelValidate the ModelRun the simulationAnalyze your r