罗宾斯管理学决策ppt课件

1、规划与决策Planning & Decision MakingChapter3-2Definition-决策Decision -Making a choice from two or more alternatives. 在两个或多个选项中作出选择Low level to high level managers make decisions. All organizational members make decisions that affect their jobs and organization they work for.2Universality of decision makin

2、gManagers at all levels make decisions，but particularly important to managersDecision making is part of all four managerial functions-Planning, Organizing, Leading, and ControllingMaking decisions is the essence of the management.Managers are called decision makers3How do you make decisions?入学考试面试题：

3、为何考上海大学？考进了大学他预备做什么？未来的职业想象是什么？他们的回答：上海大学很美丽、很有名我要仔细学习，考证书？4决策常见的问题片面短见感性即刻满足前后矛盾短期决策与长期目的不一致等等5How do managers make decisions?管理者如何作出贤明的决议？6Contents Eight Steps in the Decision-Making ProcessThree Ways Managers Make DecisionsDecisions and Decision-Making ConditionsDecision-Making Styles and how bia

4、ses affect decision making Challenges for decision makers (add.) Effective Decision Making TechniquesSituations of decision makingChapter37What are the general factors affecting managers decision making?影响决策的要素ProcessApproachesTypes of decisionsConditionsManagersObjectivesErrors and Biases81. The De

5、cision-Making Process决策过程9Exhibit 71The Decision-Making ProcessP179The Decision-Making Process includes Eight steps from identifying a problem to evaluating the decision effectiveness出处：罗宾斯 13e10决策过程Source:RobertN.LussierConcepts, Applications, Skill Development4e112. The Ways Managers Making Decisi

6、ons 管理者的决策方法122.1 Rational Decision Making approach 理性决策D Assumptions of RationalityManagers make consistent, value-maximizing choices with specified constraints.Assumptions to decision makers: TheyAre perfectly rational, fully objective, and logical.明确目的，彻底逻辑，完全理性Have carefully defined the problem

7、and identified all viable alternatives. 明晰界定问题和全部选项Have a clear and specific goal 明确详细目的Will select the alternative that maximizes outcomes in the organizations interests rather than in their personal interests. 满足组织最大利益132.2 Bounded Rationality DM Approach 有限理性决策 D Bounded Rationality有限理性Decision m

8、aking thats rational, but are limited (bounded) by an individuals ability to process information.Assumptions are that decision makers:Will not seek out or have knowledge of all alternativesWill satisfiedchoose the first alternative encountered that satisfactorily solves the problemrather than maximi

9、ze the outcome of their decision by considering all alternatives and choosing the best.Ex: To find a job14 Most decisions that managers make dont fit the assumptions of perfect rationality, so they satisfice15后期决策受前期决策影响Bounded Rationality有限理性Bounded rational decision making influenced byOrganizatio

10、ns culture, internal politics, power considerations, and Escalation of commitment承诺晋级: an increased commitment to a previous decision despite evidence that it may have been wrong. Ex: Challenger space shuttle disaster162.3 Intuitive Decision-making approach 直觉决策The Role of IntuitionIntuitive decisio

11、n making 直觉决策Is making decisions on the basis of experience, feelings, and accumulated judgment. 17Exhibit 76What is Intuition? Five Different Aspects of IntuitionSource: Based on L. A. Burke and M. K. Miller, “Taking the Mystery Out of Intuitive Decision Making, Academy of Management Executive, Oct

12、ober 1999, pp. 9199.P184潜认识决策情感决策认知决策阅历决策价值品德决策直觉183 Types of Decisions and Decision-Making Conditions 决策类型与决策条件193.1 Types of Problems & Decisions问题类型与决策类型Structured ProblemsProgrammed DecisionUnstructured Problems Nonprogrammed Decision203.1 Types of DecisionsStructured Problems and Programmed Dec

13、isionsStructured Problems 构造性问题Definition: Straightforward, familiar, and easily defined problems 直接、熟习并容易界定的问题Involve goals that clear.Are familiar (have occurred before).Are easily and completely definedinformation about the problem is available and complete.Example: a server in a restaurant spill

14、s a drink on a customers coatProgrammed Decisions 程序化决策Definition: A repetitive decision that can be handled by a routine approach.Example: The manager offers to have the coat cleaned at restaurants expense21(1) Programmed decision 程序化决策Policy政策A general guideline for making a decision about a struc

15、tured problem.Procedure 程序A series of interrelated steps that a manager can use to respond (applying a policy) to a structured problem.Rule 规那么An explicit statement that limits what a manager or employee can or cannot do.22Example- Policy, Procedure, and RulePolicy政策Accept all customer-returned merc

16、handise.Procedure程序Follow all steps for completing merchandise return documentation.Rules 规那么Managers must approve all refunds over $50.00.No credit purchases are refunded for cash.23Problems and Decisions (contd)Unstructured Problems and Nonprogrammed Decisions Unstructured Problems 构造不良问题Definitio

17、n: Problems that are new or unusual and for which information is ambiguous or incomplete.Problems that will require custom-made solutions.Nonprogrammed Decisions 非程序化决策Definition: A unique and nonrecurring decision that requires a custom-made solution 独一的和不可反复的决策。Decisions that generate unique respo

18、nses.24Exhibit 77Programmed versus Nonprogrammed DecisionsP187253.2 Decision-Making Conditions 决策制定条件Certainty 确定性Definition: A situation in which a manager can make an accurate decision because the outcome of every alternative choice is known. Example: where to deposit moneyRisk 风险性Definition:A sit

19、uation in which the manager is able to estimate the likelihood (probability) of outcomes that result from the choice of particular alternatives. Example: next pageP18726Decision-Making ConditionsUncertainty 不确定性Definition: A situation in which a decision maker has neither certainty nor reasonable pr

20、obability estimates availableLimited information prevents estimation of outcome probabilities for alternatives associated with the problem and may force managers to rely on intuition.27Decision-Making ConditionsAn Example of Decision-Making in an Uncertainty ConditionMaximax: the optimistic managers

21、 choice to maximize the maximum payoffMaximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoffMinimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret.28Exhibit 79Payoff MatrixExample: Which Strategy Will U Choose?Suppose you are a sales manager of VISAP189罗宾斯 管理学29Exhibit 79Payoff Mat

22、rixMaxmax choiceMaxmin choiceP18930Exhibit 710Regret MatrixMinimax choiceP19024-13=24-9=24-24=24-18=21-14=21-15=21-21=21-14=28-11=28-18=28-15=28-28=31ReviewDecision-Making in an Uncertainty Condition利益能够性的最大化抉择 Maximax: the optimistic managers choice to maximize the maximum payoff (Think about the l

23、argest Possible gain)利益最低能够性的最大化决策 Maximin: the pessimistic managers choice to maximize the minimum payoff (Think about the lowest Possible gain)懊悔程度最小化决策 Minimax: the managers choice to minimize maximum regret. (Think about minimizing the Possible regret)324. Decision-Making Styles 决策者的风格线性有逻辑的非线性直

24、觉的集体参与的决策个人独断的决策当机立断式沉思熟虑式恰到益处式334.1 Linear-Non linear thinking style profile Linear thinking styleNonlinear thinking styleA decision style characterized by a persons preference for using external data and facts and processing this information through rational, logical thinkingA decision style chara

25、cterized by a persons preference for internal sources of information and processing this information with internal insights, feelings, and hunches直觉.34Exhibit 711Common Decision-Making Errors and Biases4.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsP191354.2 12 Decision-Making Biases and ErrorsHeuristics 启

26、示法Using “rules of thumb to simplify decision making.1Overconfidence Bias 自傲偏见Holding unrealistically positive views of ones self and ones performance.2Immediate Gratification Bias 即时满足偏见Choosing alternatives that offer immediate rewards and that to avoid immediate costs.36Decision-Making Biases and

27、Errors (contd)3Anchoring Effect 锚定效应Fixating on initial information and ignoring subsequent information.4Selective Perception Bias 选择认识偏见Selecting organizing and interpreting events based on the decision makers biased perceptions.5Confirmation Bias 证明偏见Seeking out information that reaffirms past cho

28、ices and discounting contradictory information.37Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)6Framing Bias 框架效应偏见Selecting and highlighting certain aspects of a situation while ignoring other aspects.7Availability Bias 有效性眼前偏向Losing decision-making objectivity by focusing on the most recent events.8Rep

29、resentation Bias 典型性偏见Drawing analogies and seeing identical situations when none exist.9Randomness Bias 随机性偏见Creating unfounded meaning out of random events.38Decision-Making Biases and Errors (contd)10Sunk Costs Errors 沉没本钱错误Forgetting that current actions cannot influence past events and relate only to future consequences.11Self-Serving Bias 自利性偏向Taking quick credit for successes and blaming outside factors for failures.12Hindsight Bias 后见偏向Mistakenly believing that an event could have been predicted once the actual outcome is known (