氢气专题报告

1、第40页 共40页氢气专题报告P olic yC on tr ibution I ss uen08/21|A pr il2022N a vi g at in gt hr ou ghhydr ogenE_ ec ut i vesumm aryBENM c w ILLIAMS( b en.mc w illi amsbr ue g el.or g) isa R es e ar c hAn al y s ta t Br ue gelG EOR gZ a CHMANN( g e o rg .zac hm annbr ue g el.or g)isa S eniorF ello wa tBr ue gel

2、H Y DR OGENISSEENasa me ans t ode c ar b onise s e ct or sw ithgr e enho use gasemis s ions th a t ar e h ar dt or e duce ,asa me diumforenerg ys t or a g e ,andasa fallb ac kinc as e h alt e dfos s il-fuel im p or tsle adt oenerg yshor ta g es .H y dr o g enislik el yt opla ya tleas ts omer ole int

3、heE ur op e an U nions ac hie v emen tb y2050ofa - z er ogr e enho use gasemis s ions tar g et . Ho w E V ER ,P R OD UCTIONofHY DR OGENintheE Uisc ur r en tl yemis s ions in t ens iv e .H y - dr o g ens uppl yco uldb e de c ar b onise difpr o duce dvi a ele ctr ol y s isb as e donele ctr icit yfr om

4、 r enew able s o ur ces ,orpr o duce dfr omn a t ur al gasw ithc ar b on,c a pt ur e ,ands t or a g e .Thethe - or etic al pr oductionp ot en ti al oflow-c ar b onh y dr o g enisvir t uall yunlimite dandpr oduction v olumes w illth us dep endonl yondemandands uppl ycos t . E STIMA TESofFINALHY DR OG

5、ENdemandin2050r an g e fr omle v elss imil art ot od a ysin a low-dem ands cen ar io ,t ot entimest od a ysle v elina hi gh-dem ands cen ar io .H y dr o g enisuse daseithera c hemic al fe e ds t o c koranenerg ys o ur ce .A b as e le v elof2050demandc anb e der iv e dfr omlo ok in ga ts e ct or sth

6、a talr e ad ycons umeh y dr o g enandother sth a tar e lik el yt o adopt h y dr o g en.Theuse ofh y dr o g eninm an ys e ct or sh asb e endemons tr a t e d.W hetheruse w illincre as e depends onthe ple_in t erpl a yb et w e en p etingenerg ys upplies ,public polic y, t e c hnolo gical ands y s t ems

7、 inno v a tion,andcons umer prefer ences . P OLICYMAKERSMUSTADDR ESSTHEne e dt odis pl acec ar b on-in t ens iv e h y dr o g enw ith low-c ar b onh y dr o g en,andincen tivis e theuptak e ofh y dr o g enasa me ans t ode c ar b onise s e ct or sw ithh ar d-to-re duceemis s ions .C er tain k e ypr inc

8、iples c anb e follo w e dw itho utr e gr et : dr ivingdo w ns uppl ycos tsoflow-c ar b onh y dr o g enpr o duction; accelera tinginiti al deplo y - men tw ithpublics upp or tt ot es tthee conomicvi a bilit yanden able le arnin g;andcon tin ued s tr en gthenin gofc lim a t e p olicies s uchastheE Uem

9、is s ions tr adin gs y s t emt os tim ul a t e the gr o w thofh y dr o g en-b as e ds olutions inthear e asforwhic hh y dr o g enismos ts uita ble .R e men dedcit a tionM cW illi ams ,B .andG .Z ac hm ann(2022) N a vi g a tingthr oughh y dr o g en,P ol ic yC on tr ib ution08/2022,Br ue gel1In t r od

10、uc t ionI ntheE ur op e anU nionrsquo; sde c ar b onisation dr iv e ,h y dr o g eniss e enasa s olution fors e ct or s w ithgr e enho use gasemis s ions th a tar e h ar dt or e duce ,asa me ans ofenerg ys t or a g e ,andas a fallb ac kinc as e h alt e dfos s il-fuel im p or tsle adt oenerg yshor ta

11、g es .Thea t tr activ enes sofh y dr o g enesfr omthefactth a tnoc ar b ondio _ ide isemit t e dwhen itisb urne doruse dina fuel cell t opr o duceele ctr icit y.I ns e ct or swher e itco uldb e applie d,h y dr o g enco ulddis pl ace fos s il-fuel cons um ption andtheas s o ci a t e dc ar b onemis s

12、ions .H y dr o g enisnot a newfuel.I tsa bilit yt opr o videuseful energ yh asb e enunder s t oodfor w ello v er100y e ar s .Asr e cen tl yasthee ar l y00s ,a w a v e ofpublicin t er es tfo c use donits p ot en ti al forpo w er in ga ut omobiles (L iz za ,20_3).I n t er es tinh y dr o g enisno wr es

13、 ur gin ginthe E U ,link e dt otheblo c rsquo; smuchmore am bitio us de c ar b onisation tar g ets .O nthedemands ide , h y dr o g enco uldb e a s olution forp ar tic ul ar l yh ar d-t o-a b a t e s e ct or s ,s uchass t e el,pr o vidin ga v alua ble ar g umen tth a tfull de c ar b onisation ist e c

14、 hnic all yfe as ible .O nthes uppl ys ide ,the p ot en ti al forl ar g e im p or tsoflow-c ar b onh y dr o g enisa t tr activ e when cons ider e da g ains tthear g umen tth a ttheE U rsquo; sc le anenerg yp ot en ti al mi gh tb e t oolimite d.M or e o v er ,h y dr o g en offer sones olution t othes

15、 e as on al s t or a g e is s ueth a twhiler enew able ele ctr icit ygener ation p e ak sins ummer ,demandp e ak sinw in t er .N ot w iths tandin gthist e c hnic al pr omise ,h y dr o g enr em ains pr ohibitivel ye_p ens iv e .I ts use t od a yintheE ur op e anU nionisth us farr emo v e dfr omther o

16、le optimis tss ee itpla yingin a - z er oE Uin2050.I tisc ur r en tl yuse dalmos te_ c lus iv el yasa c hemic al fe e ds t o c kforthe pr oductionofammoni a andmeth anolandforcr udeoil r efinin g .F urther more ,thedomi - n an tpr oductionr o ut e forh y dr o g enndash;in v olvin gs ep ar ation ofh

17、y dr o g enfr ommeth anendash;is hi ghl yc ar b on-in t ens iv e .B uth y dr o g enc anals ob e pr o duce dfr omele ctr icit yvi a ele ctr ol y s is .Ther apidl yfallin gcos tofele ctr icit yfr omr enew a blesiscr ea tinge_ cit emen ta bo utlow-cos t , low-c ar b onh y dr o g enpr o duction. F i gur

18、e1:Es t im at edv ari at ioninhydr ogendem andin2050R e s i d en t i a lhe a tA vi a t i o n S t eel m a k in g A mm o ni aH e a v y - d u t yvehicle s P a ss en g e rvehicle sS hi pp in g O ilr e fi nin gL i g h tm e r ci a lveh .M e t h a n o l100 20_300 400 500 600 700 A nnu a ld e m a n d( T W h

19、 )Source:Bruegel.Note:Horizontalbarsrepresenttherangeofannualhydrogendemandbetweenourhighestandlowestassumptions(see section3).TheEuropeanmission(20_) estimatedtotalfinal energydemandin2050 of10,000T Wh.Someoftheuses forhydrogen showninthefigureareasachemic al feedstock ,notenergyconsumption,butthe1

20、0,000T Whfigurestillprovidesasensibleorderof magnitude.Ourhigherestimate(2,080 T Wh)wouldseetotalhydrogendemandofappro_imately20 percentoffinal energydemandin 2050,withthelowerestimate(295 T Wh)at3 percent . Thefut ur e r ole h y dr o g enw illpla yinthes e ct or swher e itco uldb e deplo y e ddepen

21、ds up o thee_ t en tt owhic hthene ces s ar yt e c hnolo giesr e ac hw illb e dr iv en b ythe ple_in t erpl a yofc a pitalcos ts ,cons umer prefer ences ,polic ydecisions ,andtheR e s i d e n t i a l T r a n s p o r t I n d u s t r yr el a tiv e p er for m anceof p etingc le anenerg ys o ur ces .Be

22、c ause ofthes e uncertain ties ,w e es tima t e th a tin2050,h y dr o g enco uldme et20p er cen tofE Ufinal energ ydemandndash;b utitm a y me etonl y3p er cen t(Fi g ur e 1).Thisisinline w ithmore s ophis tic a t e dmo dellin gs t udies .ThisP olic yC on tr ibution e_amines theg a pb et w e en3p er

23、cen tand20p er cen t .O uran al y s is s upp or tstheidea th a tde c ar b onisation w illb e dr iv enm ainl yb yele ctr ifica tion,whileh y dr o - g enw illemerg e t ofillthenic hefora pplic a tionswher e ele ctr icit yiseithert ooe_p ens iv e or ple_ .W e fir s te_plor e thep ot en ti al forh y dr

24、o g ent oe v olv e fr omt od ayrsquo; shi ghl yp ollutin g c hemic al fe e ds t o c kt oa k e yc le anenerg ys o ur ceina de c ar b onise dE Uin2050.Thefir s tfun - d amen tals t ep isthea bilit yt opr o duces i g nific an tv olumes ofc le anh y dr o g en(s ection 2).W e then e_amine them ains e ct

25、or sinwhic hh y dr o g enisc ur r en tl yb ein gcons ume doriscons id - er e danim p or tan tp a th w a yforfut ur e de c ar b onisa tion.T oillus tr a t e theuncertain t yar o und fut ur e h y dr o g endemandw e as s es swh a t2050h y dr o g endemandmi gh tb e int ens i g nific an t s e ct or s(s ection 3).Thediffic ult yforpolic ym ak erst od a yliesinkno w in ge_ac