宏观经济学曼昆12章

1、5THE REAL ECONOMY IN THE LONG RUN长期长期中的实际经济中的实际经济Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.长期长期(LR)：所有的经济变量都有充足的时间：所有的经济变量都有充足的时间作出调整。例如，超越一个合同时期。作出调整。例如，超越一个合同时期。 实际（实际（real）：没有货币，或不考虑货币的影）：没有货币，或不考虑货币的影响。响。 属于古典理论。属于古典理论。 考虑的是一个趋势考虑的是一个趋势Chapter 12Harcourt, Inc. items

2、and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.A countrys standard of living depends on its ability to produce goods and services.一国的生活水平决定于它生产物品一国的生活水平决定于它生产物品与劳务的能力。与劳务的能力。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uEconomic Growth: represents the expansion of a coun

3、trys potential GDP or national output.uPotential GDP :the level of GDP attained when all firms are producing at capacity.uProduction Possibility Frontier (PPF) shifts outward. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.In the United States over the past century, average i

4、ncome as measured by real GDP per person has grown by about 2 percent per year.在美国过去一个世纪里，按人均实际在美国过去一个世纪里，按人均实际GDP衡量衡量的平均收入每年增长的平均收入每年增长2左右。左右。1978-2006:我国我国GDP年均实际增长率为年均实际增长率为9.6%2012:我国实际我国实际GDP增长增长7.8%Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Copyright2004 South-Weste

5、rn 国别国别 时期时期 期初人均期初人均GDP 期末人均期末人均GDP 增长率（每年）增长率（每年） 日本日本 18902008 1540美元美元 35200美元美元 2.71 巴西巴西 19002008 779 10070 2.40 墨西哥墨西哥 19002008 1159 14270 2.35 德国德国 18702008 2184 35940 2.05 加拿大加拿大 18702008 2375 36220 1.99 中国中国 19002008 716 6020 1.99 美国美国 18702008 4007 46970 1.80 阿根廷阿根廷 19002008 2293 14020 1.

6、69 英国英国 18702008 4080 36130 1.47 印度印度 19002008 675 2960 1.38 印度尼西亚印度尼西亚 19002008 891 3830 1.36巴基斯坦巴基斯坦 19002008 737 2700 1.21 孟加拉国孟加拉国 19002008 623 1440 0.78Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe Growth Rate of GDP during a particular year.uFor longer periods of

7、time, we can use average annual growth rate.uFor longer periods of time, we get approximately the same answer by averaging growth rate for each year.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.According to the rule of 70, if some variable grows at a rate of x percent per y

8、ear, then that variable doubles in approximately 70/x years.根据根据70规则，规则，如果某个变量每年按如果某个变量每年按x%增长，增长，那么在将近那么在将近70/x年以后该变量翻一番。年以后该变量翻一番。Number of years to double=70/Growth RateHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u$5,000 invested at 7 percent interest per year, will dou

9、ble in size in 10 years 70/ 7 = 10Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u每年利率为每年利率为7的的5000美元投资在美元投资在10年后年后的价值翻一番。的价值翻一番。70/ 7 = 10Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u20世纪90年代之前，印度的收入每50年翻一番，而韩国每10年翻一番。平均来说，一个印度人的收入将是他祖父的两倍，而一个韩国人的收

10、入将是他祖父的32倍我无法想象一个人看到这些数字时不会认为其代表了巨大的可能性。印度政府是否能采取某些行动使印度的经济像印度尼西亚和埃及的经济那样增长？如果能，那么应该采取哪些政策呢？如果不能，那么到底是哪些印度的特性使其无法这么做呢？这些问题中间所包含的人类福利含义本身就是非常重要的：一旦我们开始思考这些问题，我们就发现很难再去思考其他问题u_罗伯特卢卡斯（Lucas, R.）在剑桥大学所作的“马歇尔讲座”上的讲话Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uAnnual growth rate

11、s that seem small become large when compounded for many years. uCompounding refers to the accumulation of a growth rate over a period of time.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u看起来很小的增长率在许多年的看起来很小的增长率在许多年的复利计算之后变得很大。复利计算之后变得很大。u复利计算复利计算 是指在一个时期内的增是指在一个时期内的增长率的累积。

12、长率的累积。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTips:uSmall difference in growth rate are important.uWhy do growth rate matter?uThe benefit of an earlier start Example: Standard of living in China and Japan.uThe rich get richer Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items cop

13、yright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc. 可以用柯布道格拉斯生产函数说明从生产率和要素投入增长两个角度分析经济增长的研究线路。 Q=A.L K，其中Q为产量，L、K分别代表劳动和资本投入量，A为技术状况， 、 分别代表劳动和资本在生产过程中的产出弹性。(+ =1) 进行代数变换可得到： Y/Y= （L/L）+ （K/K）+A/A 它表明国民收入增长率可被分解为三个部分： 1、劳动要素投入量的增长率； 2、资本要素投入量的增长率； 3、全

14、要素生产率（total factor productivity，简称TFP）Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe Factors of Production 生产要素生产要素Physical capital 物质资本物质资本Human capital 人力资本人力资本Natural resources 自然资源自然资源Technological knowledge 技术知识技术知识Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 20

15、01 by Harcourt, Inc.uPhysical Capitalis a produced factor of production. It is an input into the production process that in the past was an output from the production process.is the stock of equipment and structures that are used to produce goods and services. Tools used to build or repair automobil

16、es. Tools used to build furniture. Office buildings, schools, etc.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u物质资本物质资本是生产出来的生产要素。是生产出来的生产要素。 它是生产过程的投入，也是过去生产过程的它是生产过程的投入，也是过去生产过程的产出。产出。是用于生产物品与劳务的设备与建筑物的是用于生产物品与劳务的设备与建筑物的存量。存量。 用于生产或修理汽车的工具。用于生产或修理汽车的工具。 用于生产家具的工具。用于生产家具的

17、工具。 办公楼，学校等等办公楼，学校等等Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uHuman Capitalthe economists term for the knowledge and skills that workers acquire through education, training, and experience Like physical capital, human capital raises a nations ability to produce goods an

18、d services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u人力资本人力资本经济学家用来指工人通过教育、培训和经经济学家用来指工人通过教育、培训和经验而获得的知识和技能的一个术语验而获得的知识和技能的一个术语。 和物质资本一样，人力资本提高一个国家生和物质资本一样，人力资本提高一个国家生产物品与劳务的能力。产物品与劳务的能力。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uNatural Res

19、ourcesinputs used in production that are provided by nature, such as land, rivers, and mineral deposits. Renewable resources include trees and forests. Nonrenewable resources include petroleum and coal.can be important but are not necessary for an economy to be highly productive in producing goods a

20、nd services.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u自然资源自然资源由自然界提供的用于生产物品与劳务的投由自然界提供的用于生产物品与劳务的投入，如土地、河流和矿藏。入，如土地、河流和矿藏。 可再生资源包括树木和森林。可再生资源包括树木和森林。 不可再生资源包括石油和煤炭。不可再生资源包括石油和煤炭。可能是重要的，但它们并不是一个经济体可能是重要的，但它们并不是一个经济体生产物品与劳务中生产率高的必要条件。生产物品与劳务中生产率高的必要条件。Harcourt, Inc. items

21、 and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTechnological Knowledgesocietys understanding of the best ways to produce goods and services. Human capital refers to the resources expended transmitting this understanding to the labor force.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by

22、 Harcourt, Inc.u技术知识技术知识社会对生产物品与劳务的最好方法的社会对生产物品与劳务的最好方法的理解。理解。 人力资本是指把这些理解传递给劳动人力资本是指把这些理解传递给劳动力的资源消耗。力的资源消耗。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Economists often use a production function to describe the relationship between the quantity of inputs used in productio

23、n and the quantity of output from production.经济学家经常用生产函数来描述用于生产经济学家经常用生产函数来描述用于生产的投入量和生产的产出量之间的关系。的投入量和生产的产出量之间的关系。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y = quantity of outputA = available production technologyL = quantity of laborK = quantity of

24、physical capitalH = quantity of human capitalN = quantity of natural resourcesF( ) is a function that shows how the inputs are combined. Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Y = A F(L, K, H, N)Y = A F(L, K, H, N) Y Y = = 产出量产出量A A = = 可得到的生产技术可得到的生产技术L L = = 劳动量劳动量K

25、 K = = 物质资本量物质资本量H H = = 人力资本量人力资本量N N = = 自然资源量自然资源量F( )F( ) 是一个表示投入如何结合起来以生产是一个表示投入如何结合起来以生产 产出的函数。产出的函数。 Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uA production function has constant returns to scale if, for any positive number x, 如果给定任何一个正数如果给定任何一个正数x，下式成立，则该生下式成立，则该

26、生产函数的规模收益不变。产函数的规模收益不变。xY = A F(xL, xK, xH, xN)uThat is, a doubling of all inputs causes the amount of output to double as well. 这就是说，投入翻番就会使产出翻番。这就是说，投入翻番就会使产出翻番。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uProduction functions with constant returns to scale have an inter

27、esting implication.uSetting x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)Where:Y/L = output per workerK/L = physical capital per workerH/L = human capital per workerN/L = natural resources per workerHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u规模收益不变的生产函数有一个令人感规模收益不变的生产函数有一个令人感兴

28、趣的含义。兴趣的含义。u设设 x = 1/L,Y/ L = A F(1, K/ L, H/ L, N/ L)这里这里:Y/L = 每个工人的产量每个工人的产量K/L = 每个工人的物质资本每个工人的物质资本H/L = 每个工人的人力资本每个工人的人力资本N/L = 每个工人的自然资源每个工人的自然资源Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The preceding equation says that productivity (Y/L) depends on physical capita

29、l per worker (K/L), human capital per worker (H/L), and natural resources per worker (N/L), as well as the state of technology, (A).Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.这个公式说明，生产率这个公式说明，生产率(Y/L)取决于每个取决于每个工人的物质资本工人的物质资本 (K/L)，每个工人的人力每个工人的人力资本资本 (H/L)，每个工人的自然资源，每个工人的自

30、然资源， (N/L)，以及技术状况以及技术状况 (A).Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uAs the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.uBecause of diminishing returns, an increase in the savin

31、g rate leads to higher growth only for a while.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u随着资本存量的增加，从增加的一个单随着资本存量的增加，从增加的一个单位资本中生产额外产量减少。这种特性位资本中生产额外产量减少。这种特性被称为被称为收益递减。收益递减。u因为收益递减，储蓄率增加所引起的更因为收益递减，储蓄率增加所引起的更高的增长只是暂时的。高的增长只是暂时的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items cop

32、yright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.K/LQ/LVSteady state at V in the long runHarcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.K/LQ/LVVTechnological change moves the steady state from V to V Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uWhich is more important

33、for economic growth: more capital or technological change?uTechnological change: The key to sustaining economic growth.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTry to find the reasons for the rapid economic growth of China over past three decades.Harcourt, Inc. items a

34、nd derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTwo factors: 1.The massive movement of workers from agriculture to manufacturing jobs. 2. The transformation of its economy into a market system.uWhich factor is more important? Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.a

35、.中国经济学家的估计劳动力24%人力资本24%劳动力转移21%未解释3%物质资本28%b.世界银行的估计劳动力17%劳动力转移16%物质资本37%未解释30% Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Governments can do many things to raise productivity and living standards.政府可以做很多事情来提高生产政府可以做很多事情来提高生产率和生活水平。率和生活水平。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived

36、items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uGovernment Policies That Raise Productivity and Living StandardsEncourage saving and investment.Encourage investment from abroadEncourage education and training.Establish secure property rights and maintain political stability.Promote free trade.Promote researc

37、h and development.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u提高生产率和生活水平的政府政策提高生产率和生活水平的政府政策鼓励储蓄和投资鼓励储蓄和投资鼓励来自国外的投资鼓励来自国外的投资鼓励教育和培训鼓励教育和培训建立完善的产权保护机制和政治稳定建立完善的产权保护机制和政治稳定促进自由贸易促进自由贸易促进研究与开发促进研究与开发Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.One w

38、ay to raise future productivity is to invest more current resources in the production of capital.提高未来生产率的一种方法就是把更提高未来生产率的一种方法就是把更多现期资源投资于资本的生产。多现期资源投资于资本的生产。(a) Growth Rate 19601991(b) Investment 19601991South KoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWest GermanyMexicoUnited KingdomNigeriaUnited StatesI

39、ndiaBangladeshChileRwandaSouth KoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWest GermanyMexicoUnited KingdomNigeriaUnited StatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwandaInvestment (percent of GDP)Growth Rate (percent)01234567010203040Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.(a) 1960-1991增长率增长

40、率(b) 1960-1991投资投资 韩国韩国 新加坡新加坡 日本日本以色列以色列 加拿大加拿大 巴西巴西 西德西德 墨西哥墨西哥 英国英国尼日利亚尼日利亚 美国美国 印度印度 孟加拉国孟加拉国智利智利卢旺达卢旺达增长率增长率 (百分比百分比)01234567South KoreaSingaporeJapanIsraelCanadaBrazilWest GermanyMexicoUnited KingdomNigeriaUnited StatesIndiaBangladeshChileRwanda投资投资 (GDP的的)010203040图图1. 增长与投资增长与投资Harcourt, Inc

41、. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uAs the stock of capital rises, the extra output produced from an additional unit of capital falls; this property is called diminishing returns.uBecause of diminishing returns, an increase in the saving rate leads to higher growth only for a

42、while.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u随着资本存量的增加，从增加的一个单随着资本存量的增加，从增加的一个单位资本中生产额外产量减少。这种特性位资本中生产额外产量减少。这种特性被称为被称为收益递减。收益递减。u因为收益递减，储蓄率增加所引起的更因为收益递减，储蓄率增加所引起的更高的增长只是暂时的。高的增长只是暂时的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.In the long

43、run, the higher saving rate leads to a higher level of productivity and income, but not to higher growth in these areas.在长期中，高储蓄率引起高水平的生产率在长期中，高储蓄率引起高水平的生产率和收入，但在这些变量中并没有高增长。和收入，但在这些变量中并没有高增长。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.The catch-up effect refers to the con

44、dition that, other things being equal, it is easier for a country to grow fast if it starts out relatively poor.追赶效应追赶效应是指在其他条件相同的情况下，如果是指在其他条件相同的情况下，如果一国开始时较穷，它要迅速增长是容易的。一国开始时较穷，它要迅速增长是容易的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Governments can increase capital accumu

45、lation and long-term economic growth by encouraging investment from foreign sources.政府可以通过鼓励来自国外的投资来政府可以通过鼓励来自国外的投资来增加资本积累和长期的经济增长。增加资本积累和长期的经济增长。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.Investment from abroad takes several forms:uForeign Direct InvestmentuCapital inves

46、tment owned and operated by a foreign entity.uForeign Portfolio InvestmentuInvestments financed with foreign money but operated by domestic residents.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.来自国外的投资采取几种形式：来自国外的投资采取几种形式：u外国直接投资外国直接投资u由外国实体拥有并经营的资本投资。由外国实体拥有并经营的资本投资。u外国有价

47、证券投资外国有价证券投资u用外国货币筹资，但由国内居民经营的用外国货币筹资，但由国内居民经营的投资。投资。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uFor a countrys long-run growth, education is at least as important as investment in physical capital.uIn the United States, each year of schooling raises a persons wage on ave

48、rage by about 10 percent.uThus, one way the government can enhance the standard of living is to provide schools and encourage the population to take advantage of them.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u教育对一个国家的长期经济成功至少教育对一个国家的长期经济成功至少与物质资本投资同样重要。与物质资本投资同样重要。u在美国，

49、每一年正规教育使人的平均收入在美国，每一年正规教育使人的平均收入增加增加10左右。左右。u因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一种方法因此，政府可以提高生活水平的一种方法是提供良好的学校，并鼓励人们利用这些是提供良好的学校，并鼓励人们利用这些学校。学校。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.An educated person might generate new ideas about how best to produce goods and services, which in turn, m

50、ight enter societys pool of knowledge and provide an external benefit to others.一个受过教育的人会产生一些有关如何最好一个受过教育的人会产生一些有关如何最好地生产物品与劳务的新思想，这些新思想进地生产物品与劳务的新思想，这些新思想进入社会知识宝库，并给他人带来入社会知识宝库，并给他人带来外部效益。外部效益。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.One problem facing some poor countr

51、ies is the brain drain-the emigration of many of the most highly educated workers to rich countries.一些贫穷国家面临的一个问题是一些贫穷国家面临的一个问题是人才人才外流外流许多受过最高教育的工人移许多受过最高教育的工人移民到富国。民到富国。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uProperty rights refer to the ability of people to exercise

52、 authority over the resources they own.uAn economy-wide respect for property rights is an important prerequisite for the price system to work.uIt is necessary for investors to feel that their investments are secure.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u产权是指人们对其拥有的资源

53、行使权产权是指人们对其拥有的资源行使权力的能力。力的能力。u价格制度发生作用的一个重要前提是经济价格制度发生作用的一个重要前提是经济中广泛尊重产权。中广泛尊重产权。u让投资者感到他们的投资安全是必要的。让投资者感到他们的投资安全是必要的。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uWhat explain rapid economic growth in Bostwana?uThe most important reason is the pro- growth policy of its go

54、vernment.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uTrade is, in some ways, a type of technology.uA country that eliminates trade restrictions will experience the same kind of economic growth that would occur after a major technological advance.Harcourt, Inc. items and d

55、erived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u在某些方面，贸易是一种技术。在某些方面，贸易是一种技术。u取消了贸易限制的国家将有重大技取消了贸易限制的国家将有重大技术进步以后出现的同类经济增长。术进步以后出现的同类经济增长。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uSome countries engage in . . . . . inward-orientated trade policies, avoiding interaction wit

56、h other countries. . . . outward-orientated trade policies, encouraging interaction with other countries.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u一些国家实施一些国家实施 . . . . . 内向型内向型 贸易政策贸易政策, 避免与世界其避免与世界其他国家相互交易。他国家相互交易。 . . . 外向型外向型 贸易政策，鼓励与其他国贸易政策，鼓励与其他国家相互交易。家相互交易。Harcour

57、t, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe advance of technological knowledge has led to higher standards of living.uMost technological advance comes from private research by firms and individual inventors.uGovernment can encourage the development of new technologies throug

58、h research grants, tax breaks, and the patent system.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u技术知识的进步带来更高的生活水平。技术知识的进步带来更高的生活水平。u大多数技术进步来自企业和个人所进行的大多数技术进步来自企业和个人所进行的私人研究。私人研究。u政府通过补贴、减税和专利制度来鼓励新政府通过补贴、减税和专利制度来鼓励新技术的开发。技术的开发。Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyri

59、ght 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.uThe causes of the changes in productivity growth are elusive.uThe slowdown cannot be traced to the factors of production that are most easily measured.uMany economists attribute the slowdown and speedup in economic growth to changes in technology and the creation of new id

60、eas.Harcourt, Inc. items and derived items copyright 2001 by Harcourt, Inc.u生产率增长变化的原因是捉摸不定的。生产率增长变化的原因是捉摸不定的。u这种生产率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易这种生产率放慢不能追溯到那些最容易衡量的生产要素。衡量的生产要素。u许多经济学家把经济增长快慢归因于技许多经济学家把经济增长快慢归因于技术变革和新思想的创造。术变革和新思想的创造。Growth Rate(percentper year)1.01.52.02.53.03.54.0187018901890191019101930193019501