全球危机的影响成因Thecausesoftheglobalcrisis0001

1、全球危机的影响成因（ThecausesoftheglobalcrisisTheconceptoftheglobalfinancialcrisis:therapiddeteriorationofallormostofthefinancialindicatorsinthefinancialsector,soastoaffectthestabilityanddevelopmentoftherelevantcountries,regionsandeventheworldeconomy.Includingtheglobalcurrencycrisis,theglobaldebtcrisis,theglo

2、balbankingcrisis.CausesoftheglobalfinancialcrisisUnderthebackgroundofeconomicglobalization,theimbalanceofinternationaleconomywillleadtothereallocationofinternationalcapitalintheglobalscope.Inasense,theimbalanceofinternationaleconomyandthedefectsoftheinternationalmonetarysystemarethepreconditionsfort

3、heoutbreakofthefinancialcrisis,andtheattackoftheinternationalhotmoneyistherealizationconditionoftheoutbreakofthefinancialcrisis.Thecommoncausesofthetwointernationalfinancialcrisesin1997and2008:Oneistheintegrationoftheglobaleconomy;Twoistheinherentinstabilityofinternationalfinancialmarkets;Threeisthe

4、excessliquidityandhighlevelofcapitalflow.Thatis,underthemodernmonetarycreditmechanism,theasymmetryofinformationleadstothecrisis.Aslongasthemodernmarketeconomyexists,themonetarycreditmechanisminherentinthemarketeconomymayleadtothefinancialcrisis.Thefinancialcrisisiscausedbyexternalfactorsorinternalfa

5、ctors,andtherearetwoopposingviewsintheacademiccircle:conspiracytheoryandlawtheory.Conspiracytheoryholdsthatthefinancialcrisisiscausedbypremeditatedandplannedattacksontheeconomy,andiscausedbyexternalcauses,especiallyafterthefinancialcrisisinSoutheastasia.Thetheoryoflawholdsthatthefinancialcrisisisthe

6、lawoftheeconomyitself,andiscausedbyinternalcauses.Thethreegenerationoffinancialcrisistheorybasicallyacknowledgesthelawtheory.Withtheimprovementoffinancialsupervision,acountryforsupervisionorcontrolproblemscauseddecreasestheprobabilityoffinancialcrisis;andwiththegrowingtrendofeconomicglobalization,mo

7、dernfinancialcrisisbasicallyshowedanimbalanceininternationaleconomicconditions,theuseofnationalcapitalinternationalmonetarysystemdistortedintheinterestsofthedrivetoregionalfinancetheoutbreakofthecrisis,whichinessence,natureandcausesofthefinancialcrisishaschanged.First,theimbalanceofinternationalecon

8、omyHuangXiaolong(2007)1believesthattheimbalanceofinternationalpaymentsleadstotheimbalanceoftheinternationalmonetarysystem,thevirtualeconomyleadstoexcessliquidity,whichleadstotheglobaleconomicimbalancesandfinancialcrisis.HuangXiaolongishometocompletefromtheexternalfactorofthefinancialcrisis,butfundam

9、entallytherootcausesofglobaleconomicimbalancesshouldbetheimbalanceoftherealeconomy,theimbalanceofinternationalpaymentsisunbalancedrealeconomyphenomenon,unbalancedrealeconomyleadstocurrencyofinternationalcapitalflows,internationalcapitalflowsleadtoexpansionofthevirtualeconomyandthedepression.Theforma

10、tionofashortageofliquidity,caneventuallyleadtofinancialcrisis.Therefore,theimbalanceoftheglobalrealeconomyisthenecessaryconditionforthefinancialcrisis,andtheliquidityshortagecausedbythevirtualeconomyisthesufficientconditionofthefinancialcrisis.Throughoutthehistoryofthefinancialcrisis,thefinancialcri

11、sisisalwaysaccompaniedbyregionalorglobaleconomicimbalances.TheEuropeanfinancialcrisisin1992,fromtheunificationofGermanyandtherapideconomicdevelopmentofGermany,broketheeconomicbalancebetweenGermanyandtheUnitedStates,andbetweenGermanyandotherEuropeancountries.Japanin1990wasalsobecauseoftheeconomicbala

12、ncebetweentheUnitedStatesandJapanwasbroken,intheroleofthefinancialcrisis,toachieveaneweconomicequilibrium.Regionalorglobaleconomicimbalanceswillleadtothereallocationofinternationalcapitalwithinacertainrange.Underthebackgroundofregionaleconomicintegrationandeconomicglobalization,theinfluenceofacountr

13、y'smacropolicymayberegionalorglobal.Whenacountryofastrongereconomywillattractinternationalcapitalinflowstothecountry,theresultisalsosomeofthecountry'scapitaloutflows,whencapitaloutflowswilloccurtoacertainextent,theshortageofliquidity,thefinancialcrisisischangingfrompossibilitytonecessity.The

14、signalforthischangeisthehighinterestratepolicyofbigcountries,orthestrongmonetarypolicyofbigpowers.Butforasmallcountryintermsofeconomy,astrongereconomy,willattractinternationalcapitalinflows,whenthenumberofinternationalcapitalinflows,thecountry'srealeconomytoabsorbtheinternationalcapitalissaturat

15、ed,theinternationalcapitalwillbetheintegrationofvirtualeconomyandthecountry'seconomicbubble,whenthevirtualeconomyandrealeconomyseriousdivergence,Therapidretreatofinternationalcapitalledtothesmallcountryfromtheexcessliquiditytotheliquiditycrunch,resultingintheoutbreakofthefinancialcrisis.Fromthei

16、nternationaleconomicimbalanceleadstotheformationofthepathcanbeseeninthefinancialcrisis,internationaleconomicimbalancesthroughthebalanceofpayments,internationalpaymentsimbalancesandadjustmentthroughtheinternationalmonetarysystem,ifyouhaveaperfectandeffectiveinternationalmonetarysystem,socanavoidthema

17、ndatoryinternationaleconomicanddisruptiveadjustment,thatistosaycanbeavoidedthefinancialcrisis,buttherealityoftheinternationalmonetarysystemiscontrolledbygreatpowers,andinternationaleconomicimbalanceswillbefurtherenlargedanddistorted.Two.DistortionoftheinternationalmonetarysystemXuMingqiisascholarwho

18、hasearlierattributedthefinancialcrisisofdevelopingcountriestotheinherentdefectsoftheinternationalmonetarysystem.XuMingqi(1999)2thatoneiswanderinginordertomaintainthestatusquoandweakeningofreformtheinternationalmonetarysystem;ontheotherhandisdevelopingintheinternationaltrade,investmentanddebtinaweakp

19、osition;dualconstraintsofdevelopingcountrieshavetoswallowabitterfinancialcrisis,andthusescapetheinherentdefectsoftheexistinginternationalthemonetarysystemoftheblame.ItissaidthattheinternationalmonetarysystemfollowsthebasicprinciplesandconceptsoftheBrettonWoodssysteminthemediationofinternationalbalan

20、ceofpayments,andcountriesintheformulationofmonetarypolicycoordinationininternationaleconomicimbalanceshaslosttheoriginalorderanddiscipline,andnowtheinternationaleconomicimbalanceisnowtheinternationalmonetarysystemenlarged,exacerbated.ThecollapseoftheBrettonWoodssystem,theexistinginternationalmonetar

21、ysystemisalooseinternationalmonetarysystem,althoughtheroleoftheeuroandtheyenintheinternationalmonetarysystemhasgraduallyincreased,however,reservecurrencydiversificationcannoteffectivelysolvethe"TriffinDilemma",onlycontradictionthatreservecurrencydiversification,isanationalcurrencyintheinte

22、rnationaltheidentityofthesamecurrency.Inthecaseofthedollar,thedollar'svalueadjustmentisachievedthroughtheadjustmentofthedollarinterestrate.ThefedintheformulationofU.S.interestrates,cannottakeintoaccountthedollarpegtothedollarasareserveorcountry(region)macroeconomicsituation,sowhenthedollarintere

23、strateadjustment,ofteninothereconomies,especiallytheUnitedStatesandrelativelycloseeconomictiesorcurrencypeggedcountriesandregionscausedbytheimpactof2.Canbeseenfromtheaboveanalysis,nowtheinternationalmonetarysystemretainstheoriginalideasandprinciplesoftheinternationalmonetarysystem,butlosttheoriginal

24、orderanddiscipline,strongeconomiescanusethissystemonthefinancialcrisisandobtainmoreprofits,andshouldnotassumetoomuchresponsibility.Three,internationalhotmoneyattacksTheimbalanceofinternationaleconomyisthepreconditionofthefinancialcrisis,andtheimperfectinternationalmonetarysystemwillaggravatetheimbal

25、anceofinternationaleconomy.However,thefinancialcrisisiscausedbytheinternationalfloatingcapital.AfterthecollapseofBrettonWoodssystem,thefinancialcrisiscannotbeseparatedfromtheattackofinternationalhotmoney.Asweallknow,thescaleofinternationalhotmoneyislarge,andithastheabilitytoinfluenceandshortenthefin

26、ancialcycleofthecountriesunderattack.Whentheinternationalhotmoneyenterstheattackedcountry,itwillaffecttheinterestrateandexchangeratechangeofacountry,thusspeedingupthetransformationofthefinancialmarketfromrationaldevelopmenttoirrationalprosperity3.Accordingtothepsychologicalexpectationselfactualizati

27、onprincipleofthefinancialmarket,theinternationalhotmoneyhaspremeditatedentryandretreat,whichwillleadtothecollapseofthefinancialmarket.Internationalcapitalskillfullyusefinancialderivativestoearnhighprofitsintheperiodoffinancialprosperity,canalsousethefinancialcrisistoearnhighprofitsorcapitalacquisiti

28、onqualitycrisisofthecountry,andthencontroltheeconomiclifelineofthecountrywasattacked.In1992theEuropeanfinancialcrisis,Sorosthroughthewayofobtaining1:20marginlending,injustonemonth'stime,bysellingtheequivalentof$7billion,equivalentto$6billiontobuyMark,forcingthesubstantialdepreciationofthepound,t

29、herepaymentofloansaftermorethan$1billion500million4.Hedgefundinvestmentstrategyisalsoconstantlyenriched,fromtheinitial"shortselling+leverage"strategy(marketneutralfund),fundsalsoIthasdevelopedintoasinglestrategy(includingarbitrage,direction,eventdriven,etc.),MultiStrategy(includingemerging

30、markets,mergersandacquisitions,etc.),fundandotherinvestmentstrategies.Itsriskcharacteristicsshowavarietyoftrends,bothhighrisk,highincomemacrohedgefunds,butalsolow-risk,butrelativelystablemarketneutralfund.Typicalfeaturesbeforethefinancialcrisis:First,theeconomyhasmaintainedhighgrowthformanyyears;Two

31、isalargeinflowofexternalfunds;Threeistherapidgrowthofdomesticcredit;Fouristhegeneraloverinvestment;Fiveistherapidriseinassetpricessuchasstocksandrealestate;Six,thetradedeficitcontinuestodeteriorate;Seven,thecurrencyisgenerallyovervalued.Thefinancialcrisisismainlymanifestedinthefollowingaspects:1.1,

32、thestockmarketplummeted.Itisoneofthemainsignsoftheinternationalfinancialcrisis.2. capitalflight.Itisoneofthemajorsignsoftheinternationalfinancialcrisis.3. normalbankcreditrelationshipisdestroyed,andwithabankrun,monetaryshortageandalargenumberoffinancialinstitutionsbankruptcyandotherphenomena.4.,theo

33、fficialreserveshavebeengreatlyreduced,andthecurrencyhasdepreciatedsubstantiallyandinflation.5.debtdifficulties.ImpactoffinancialcrisisIntheglobalfinancialcrisis,theimportandexportindustryinthecuspoftheimpactisthemostdirectandmostserious.First,thecrisisshiftsfromthefinancialleveltotheeconomiclevel,di

34、rectlyaffectingexports.Specifictotheindustry,textileindustryandothertraditionallabor-intensiveenterprisesareseriouslyaffected.Theexportcountries,ChineseexportstotheUnitedStatestheamountofgrowthdecreasedobviously,theEUandOceania'sexportshavenotbeensignificantlyaffected,whileshowingastronggrowthin

35、theamountofregionssuchasLatinAmericaandAfricainthedevelopmentofexport.Withthefurtherdevelopmentanddiffusionofthefinancialcrisis,China'sexportstoEuropeancountriesandevensomedevelopingcountrieswillbeaffected,thusposingaseverechallengetoChina'soverallexportgrowth.Theimpactofthefinancialcrisisontheworldeconomyisfar-reaching.ThedataprovidedbytheInstituteoffinance,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences,showsthatthemarketsizeofsubordinatedbondderivativeshasbeenenlargedtonearly400trillionUSdollars,equivalentto7timeshigherthanthegl