资产管理报告etf将引领下一步增长中英2019.7

1、2019中国资产管理ETF将引领下一波增长作者周之行, 董事叶琮, 副董事获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、学人4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群目录背景: 2018年成为转折点25914ETF需求上升给ETF管理公司的建议结语Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1执行摘要中国的资产管理市场正进入一个全新的阶段：市场进一步向企业开放；同时，基金管理公司开始着手取替基于“资产”的管理。我们观察到一个有趣的趋势：投资在中国日益受追捧。如今，越来越多的基金管理公司正在关注的型开放式指数

2、基金（“ETF”），将它们视作下一个增长引擎。旨在探讨中国ETF市场的发展轨迹与增长动力，帮助资产管理公司了解未来的机遇，把握不断增长的需求，从而驾驭中国这个独特又充满的市场。在第一节里，我们指出2018年是ETF市场的拐点。2018年，ETF市场的资产管理规模迅在第二节里，我们评估在第三节里，我们指出基金管理公司需要摆脱“以为中心”的思维模式，认真地研究不同投资者的需求，制定周全而明智的策略，以赢得投资者。具体而言，投资者可能会有不同的目标，有些需要进行战术型建仓，另一些则需要建立长期投资组合，这将转化为不同的买入标准。对前者来说，指数的独特 性更为重要；而后者则看重成 本效率。了ETF增长

3、的驱动所在。首先，个人投资者日渐成 熟，并认识到ETF作为低成本投资工具的长处；同时，机构投资者也在不断地深化与拓宽投资领域。其次，随着分析能力的提 升，基金管理公司能够开发更广速增长至560亿3,810亿元（约合），并在年内推出了近40支新基金。然而，与其他市场相比，中国的ETF市场仍处于起步阶段。泛的“聪明，包括窄基指数基金及”（smart-beta）指数基金。此外，随着基金管公司者开始降低管理与托管费用，中国的ETF为“低成本工具”，这将有望提升投资者的接纳度。除了这些驱动因素外，监管机构与所也在积极地倡导发展ETF市场。2018年无疑是中国ETF市场的转折点。我们预计市场将会持续增长，

4、但只有做好充分的准备，资产管理公司才能趁势在竞争中脱颖而出成为赢家。因此，资产管理公司应密切关注市场动态，把握每一个令人振奋的机会。Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1 1 背景: 2018年成为转折点直到2004年，才出现了第一支ETF。中国ETF市场的历史较短，与其他市场相比，它仍处于初始阶段。就资产管理规模而言，ETF目前仅国公募基金市场总额的7.5%左右，这个比例明显低于美国。与其他投资工具（如股票和期货）相比，上海（上交所）的ETF投资者数量有限（见图1）。交图 1: 中国ETF市场规模ETF市场规模1, 中国 vs 美国占公募基金资产管理规模的%1

5、ETFs 数量20182 ,：10亿元3817.5%22.8%1731,97724,783上交所ETF和其他2018年上半年,的投资者数量：千股票期货100,000+800300ETF6001. 不包括基金； 2. 中国数据截至2018年年底，美国数据截至2018年11月数据来源: Wind, ICI, 上交所,咨询分析Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman2在过去十年中，ETF市场持续缓慢增长。虽然ETF基金的数量已从2012年的45支稳步攀升至2017年的135支，然而相应的资产管理规模仅从1,630亿元），增幅为40%。（约合240亿（见图2）增加至2,32

6、0亿元（约合340亿图 2: 中国新及现有ETF基金的数量与资产管理规模5047新ETF：10亿元资产管理规模, 2004-2018403022202015121099677106000050新20ETF数量403020100208400现3002001004024790现有ETF2004-2018数量1031127187453620102004 2005200620072008200920102011 2012201320142015 20162017 2018数据来源: Wind,咨询分析Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman3有趣的是，我们看到在2018年E

7、TF市场的资产管理规模突然激增，达到3,810亿元（约合560亿），并在年内推出了近40支新基金。研究表明，机构投资者正在加大对ETF的建仓力度。他们看中的是主要股票指数处于较低位且估值深具潜力。此前，中国大幅下挫，为三年以来的表现。同时，中国主要股票指数的市盈率也接近历史低位，低于全球市场的主要指数。对投资者来说，这样的估值极具吸引力（见图3）。得益于市场环境，中国ETF的发展开始进入快车道。图 3: 中国主要股指的表现主要股指的市盈率 (上证50指数、沪深300指数、中证500指数) vs. 市场额 (上海，)倍数 (市盈率), 10亿元(额), 2016 2018主要股指的市盈率市场额5

8、014,0004512,0004010,00035308,000256,00020154,000102,000500Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42017Q12018Q2Q320182018Q42018上证50 沪深300 中证500上海数据来源: Wind,咨询分析Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman4 2 ETF需求上升鉴于中国ETF市场的历史较短，市场欠发达，投资者、基及其他相关市场参与者受到各种牵制，包括（见图4）。知识缺乏、范围狭窄和分销有限等图 4: 各类消费者及价值链参与者的掣肘个人投资者机

9、构投资者销售做市商 缺乏对管理型 ETF的性 投资者偏好绝对回报， 缺乏提升ETF投资的了解相对较低不了解资产配置的概念市场性的动力 不了解ETF 风险和回报的 缺乏有效的对冲策略与工具 选择有限，指数表现不佳，很难被用于实现长期回报及分散风险 投资ETF 过完成 ETF 销售有限，例如必须通所账户 ETF的性相对较低佣金较低缺乏培训基金管理公司/ ETF管理公司所指数提供商技术提供商 由于市场需求有限， 所与OTC 之间存在隔阂 市场需求集中于股票指数，而非债券/ 大宗商品指数 缺乏市场规模缺乏 的动力ETF所的ETF 性较低，缺乏优化ETF 动性的机制 指数品质不佳所流尽管众多，我们观察到

10、市场正在经历快速演变，投资者行为不断变化，市场进入良性发展阶段1。这些都为ETF市场的持续增长与蓬勃发展奠定了坚实的基础。2.1 日益成个人投资者与规模不断扩大的机构客户群中国ETF市场的一大是投资者类型有限。在其他成熟市场中，ETF作为投资工具，长期以来一直为机构投资者所主导，被用于进行资产配置。然而，则以个人投资者为主，而这些投资者通常追求短期。尽管如此，我们看到自2018年以来投资者行为一直在变化。个人投资者的投资行为日趋成熟，这为公募基金市场的发展铺平了道路。尤为值得一提的是，投资者开始逐渐认识到ETF作为低成本投资工具的优势。为了推动ETF并提没有开高渗透率，上交所已计划建立一个的“

11、场外。”（OTC）平台，立股票1. 摘自上海账户的用户参与ETF所创新中心总经理刘逖于2018年4月19日的Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman52019CHINA ASSET MANAGEMENTETF AS NEXT WAVE OF GROWTHAUTHORSRay Chou, Partner Jasper Yip, Principal获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群。ContentsExecutive SummaryBackdrop: 2

12、018 as an inflection point Rising demand for ETF products Propositions for ETF providers125914Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1Executive SummaryChinas asset management market is now entering a new stage as the market opens up for foreign players and as fund management begins to substitute shadow b

13、anking asset based wealth management products.One interesting trend we have observed is the growing popularity of passive investment in China. More players are now eyeing the emergence of exchange traded fund (ETF) productsas the next engine of growth. This report aims to discuss how the ETF market

14、hasevolved and gained momentum, and to help asset managers to understand theopportunities that lie ahead in order to capitalize on the growing demand for such products while smoothly navigating through Chinas unique yet challenging market.Section 1identifies the year of 2018 as the inflection point

15、for the ETF market, where assets under management(AUM) rapidly grew to RMB 381 BN (or USD 56 BN) with close to 40 new funds launched during the year. However, Chinas ETF market is still at a nascent stage compared to other markets.Section 3 argues that fund management companies (FMCs) need to move a

16、way from a product-centric mindset.Instead, they should carefully examine the needs of different investors and develop a thoughtful and informed strategy to win the hearts of investors. Specifically, investors could have different objectives ranging from tactical position taking to long-term portfol

17、io construction this would translate into different key purchasing criteria, where uniqueness of the indices would be more important for the former and cost efficiency would be more important for the latter.Section 2 evaluates the driving forces for future growth in the ETF market. First and foremos

18、t, retail investors aregradually maturing and recognizing the benefits of ETF products as low-cost investment vehicles, while institutionalwallets are also deepening and broadening. Secondly, the advancement of analytical capabilities is now equipping fund managers with the ability to develop a broa

19、der rangeof products, including narrow-based and smart-beta index funds. In addition, players are showing initial signs of bringing down management and custody fees, whichmay drive more product adoption, as ETF2018 is undoubtedly an inflection point forthe ETF market. Continued growthis expected, bu

20、t the readiness of different asset managers to ride on the trend will differentiate the winners. Asset managers should therefore keep a close watch as the market evolves and stay prepared for any exciting ductse genuine low costtools. These drivers are coupled with active market dev

21、elopment advocacy by both the regulators and exchanges.Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman1 1 BACKDROP: 2018 AS AN INFLECTION POINTWother markets.ith the first ETF product only introducedin 2004, the ETF market inChina has a relatively short history and is still at a nascent stage compared toETF prod

22、ucts make up only 7.5% of Chinas mutual fund market today in terms of AUM, which is still notably smaller than that of the US. Currently, there are only limited investors trading ETF products on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) compared to other investment instruments, such as equities and futures

23、(See Exhibit 1).Exhibit 1: Size of the ETF marketSize of the ETF market1, China vs US220182 , BN RMB% of MF AUM1# of ETFs3817.5%22.8%1731,97724,783Number of investors trading ETFs and others on the SSE2018 H1, thousandsEquities100,000+Futures800Options300ETFs6001. Excluding Money Market Funds; 2. Ch

24、ina data is by 2018YE, US data is by 2018 NovSource: Wind, ICI, Shanghai Stock Exchange, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman2Over the past decade, the ETF markethas been experiencing slow growth. Whilethe number of ETFs steadily increased from 45 funds in 2012 to 135 funds in 201

25、7, AUM only grew 40% over the course of those 5 years from RMB 163 BN (or, USD 24 BN) to RMB 232 BN (or, USD 34 BN) (See Exhibit 2).Interestingly, we observed a sudden surge in AUM in the ETF market in 2018, reaching RMB 381 BN (or, USD 56 BN) with close to 40 new funds launched during the year.Exhi

26、bit 2: Number and AUM of newly issued ETFs and outstanding ETFs5047AUM of newly issued ETFsBN RMB, 2004-2018403022202015121099677106000050ber of newly issued ETFs403020100208400AB3002001004024790Number of outstanding ETFs2004-20181031127187453620102004 20052006 2007 2008 200920102011 201220132014201

27、5 20162017 2018Source: Wind, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman3Num20Research suggests that institutional investors are beginning to take positions in ETFs in order to take advantage of the low-and-attractive valuation of Chinas major indices.Thestock market slumped in 2018, hav

28、ing its weakest performance over the pastthr years; the P/E of Chinas major indices were also close to their historical low and below those of the major indices of the global market, thus making the valuation appealing to investors (See Exhibit 3).Benefitting from the market environment, ETFs have s

29、tarted to take off.Exhibit 3: Performance of major indicesPE of major indices (SSE 50, CSI 300, CSI 500) vs. Market Transaction Value (SH, SZ)Multiples (for PE), BN RMB (for transaction value), 2016 2018PE of major indicesMarket Transaction Value5014,0004512,0004010,00035308,000256,00020154,000102,0

30、00500Q12016Q22016Q32016Q42016Q12017Q22017Q32017Q42017Q12018Q22018Q32018Q42018SSE 50CSI 300CSI 500Shanghai A Shares Shenzhen A SharesSource: Wind, Oliver Wyman analysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman4 2 RISING DEMAND FOR ETF PRODUCTSGiven the short history of the ETF market, investors, fund manage

31、rs and otherassociated market participants have, so far, suffered from the various pain points of an underdeveloped market, including insufficient product knowledge, a narrow product range and limited distribution channels (See Exhibit 4).Exhibit 4: Pain points for segmented consumer base and value

32、chain playersRetail investorsInstitutional investorsSales channelsMarket makers Lack of understanding Relatively low liquidity of passive investmentfor ETFs Investors favor absolute returns and dont understand conceptof asslocation Limited investment channels, e.g. ETF transaction must be done throu

33、gh stock exchange accounts Low ETF commissions Lack of sales training Lack of incentives to improve ETF market liquidity Lack of e ective hedging strategies and toolsproducts Lack of understanding of ETF risks versus returns Relatively low liquidity for ETFs Limited product choices, poor index perfo

34、rmance, di cult to be used for long-term return and risk diversificationFMC/ETF issuersTechnology supplierExchangeIndex supplier Lack of incentives to Barriers between Market demand focuses on equity index, but not Lack of market scaleissue ETFs due toexchanges andlimited market demandOTC transactio

35、nson indexmodity Poor index quality Low liquidity for ETFs transacted on the exchange, exchange lacks mechanism to optimize ETF liquidityDespite the myriad challenges, we have observed that the market has been undergoing a rapid evolution, with both shifting investor behavior and favorable market de

36、velopments1 , which have laid a solid foundation for ETFs to grow and flourish continuously.2.1 Maturing retail investors and the broadening of the institutional client groupOne impediment to the ETF markethas been the limited investor mix. As a toolfor passive investment, ETFs have long been invest

37、ed by institutional investors for assetallocation in other mature markets. However, the retail investors who typically look for short-term gains.market is predominated by1 For example, the speech by Di Liu, Director of SSE Product Innovation Center, 19 April 2018Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman5Ne

38、vertheless, we have observed changing investor behavior since 2018. The gradually maturing investment behavior of retail investors has paved the way for mutual fund market growth. In particular, investors have begun to learn more about the advantages of ETF investment as a low-cost investment vehicl

39、e. To facilitate the ease of ETF trading and improve penetration, the SSE has proposed setting up an online “Over-The-Counter (OTC)” trading platform to allow users without stock trading accounts to participate in ETF transactions.In addition, we have observed increasing investment in ETFs by a broa

40、d range of institutional investors, including insurers, pension funds and trusts (See Exhibit 5).In order to further improve the appeal of ETFs for institutional clients, the SSE has called for better incentives and policies for ETF market makers to improve market liquidity.As a result, ETFs are gai

41、ning popularity among both retail and institutional investors with increasing adoption. As an example, the E Fund ChiNext ETF, the biggest ETF that tracks thestart-up board, has seen jumps in its number of holding shares by both institutionaland retail investors, with more than 480% and 340% growth

42、from 2017 to 2018, respectively.Exhibit 5: Investor structure of the Top 10 ETFsTop 10 investors of Top 10 ETFs, as of 2018 Q4. % of shares by top 10 shareholders China AMC China 50 ETF 81.6% 7.1% . 61% China Southern CSI 500 Index ETF 75.2% 21.6% . 74% Huatai-PineBridge CSI 300 ETF 66.2% 19.9% . 58

43、% Bosera SOE Struct Reform ETF 16.4% 4.5% 79.1% . 87% China AMC CSI 300 Index ETF 39.5% 57.9% . 98% Harvest CSI 300 Index ETF 94.6% . 91% E Fund ChiNext Price Index ETF 31.8% 60.8% . 30% Huaan Shanghai SSE180 Index Fund ETF 97.1% . 95% ChinaAMC SOE Struct Reform ETF 100% . 95% ICBC Credit Suisse SSE

44、 50 ETF 99.8% . 98% Investment companyRetailInsuranceQFIITrustFMCsSecurities companyOthers Source: Wind, Oliver Wyman analysis1. Includes banks ETF Feeder Funds, corporate pension plans, SOEs(oil & gas, energy, manufacturing, etc.)Copyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman62.2 Gradual proliferation of p

45、roduct developmentThere are limited product offerings for ETFs, with over 90% of products being equityETFs and dominated by broad-based indices, which make up about 70% of total equity ETF AUM. On the contrary, the development of bond ETFs and commodity ETFs has been rather limited. Narrow-based pro

46、ducts are also at an infancy stage, where the development of sector / thematic ETFs, cross-border ETFs and smart-beta ETFs began just a few years ago and with a limited variety (See Exhibit 6).Exhibit 6: ETF product development and product range in the US and ChinaETF product development in the US a

47、nd ChinaDate of issueDate of issueBy category, ETF first issued in the USETF first issuedfor each category1993Broad-based ETF1996Cross-border ETF1988Industry/Thematic ETF2000Smart Beta ETF2002Bond ETF2004Commodity ETF2006Leveraged ETF2008Active ETF2017AI ETFPing An Fund2019 May51293071. China AMC SS

48、E 50 ETF (华夏上证50ETF); 2. China AMC Hang Seng ETF (华夏恒生ETF) / E-Fund Hang SengH-Share ETF (恒生H股ETF); 3. CMF SSE Consumer 80 ETF (招商上证消费80ETF); 4. Bosera SZSE Fundamenta200 ETF (博时深证基本面200ETF); 5. Harvest CSI Mid-term Treasury Bond ETF (嘉实中证中期国债ETF); 6. GuotaiGold ETF (国泰黄金ETF) / Huaan Gold ETF (华安黄金E

49、TF); 7. Ping An AI ETF (平安人工智能ETF)ETF product development in the US and China, 2018Overall 94% China ETFs 81% US ETFsEquity ETF deep-dive 71% China Equity ETFs 61% US Equity ETFsEquity ETFs Bond ETFs Commodity ETFsBroad-based Industry/Thematic Cross-borderSource: SWS Research, Wind, Oliver Wyman ana

50、lysisCopyright © 2019 Oliver Wyman7China Asset Management51005012004 DecemberChina Asset Management; E Fund Management159920/51009022012 AugustChina Merchants Fund51015032010 DecemberBosera Asset ManagemenJuneHarvest Fund ManagemenMayGuotai Asset Management; HuaAn Fund

51、s518800/51888062013 JulyHowever, this trend is expected to shift as asset managers start to build more capabilities around alternative data and analytics, which present new opportunities for fund managers and index providers to issue more and different types of ETFs. In 2018, we observed an increasi

52、ng number of FMCs competing in the ETF space. For instance, 20 FMCs have together issued 38 ETFs in 2018, compared to only 6 FMCs issued 9 ETF products in 2016. Different from the previous focus where most new issuances were equity ETFs, there was a greater variety of product offerings among the new

53、ly issued ETFs in 2018, including several bond ETFs, smart-beta ETFs and SOE reform themed ETFs.To support continuous innovation, the SSE has highlighted a few areas for potential expansion, including cross-market bond ETFs, green finance themed ETFs, SOE reform themed ETFs, fintech ETFs and active ETFs. The increasing number of players and the enablement of favorable policies are expected to stimulate product development ameliorating product quality, performance and variety.