某汽车战略分析报告qinzh

1、Presentation to the Automotive News World Congress Stephen J. GirskyJanuary 2004DisclosuresAnalyst CertificationAnalyst CertificationThe following analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and that they have no

2、t received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or views in this report: Stephen J. Girsky.Important US Regulartory Disclosures on Subject CompaniesThe information and opinions in this report were prepared by Morgan Stanley & Co

3、. Incorporated (“Morgan Stanley”).As of November 28, 2003, Morgan Stanley beneficially owned 1% or more of a class of common equity securities of the following companies covered in this report: Delphi, General Motors, Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Johnson Controls, Magna Intl Inc., TBC and Tower Autom

4、otive.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of DaimlerChrysler AG, Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Standard Motor Products and Tenneco.Within the last 12 months, Morgan Stanley, Morgan Stanley or an affiliate has received compensation for inves

5、tment banking services from Aftermarket Technology, American Axle and Mfg., BorgWarner Inc., DaimlerChrysler AG, Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Standard Motor Products, Superior Industries, Tenneco, Tower Automotive and Visteon Corporation.In the next 3 months, Morgan Stanley expects to receive or in

6、tends to seek compensation for investment banking services from Aftermarket Technology, American Axle and Mfg., ArvinMeritor, AutoNation, Borg Warner Inc., DaimlerChrysler AG, Dana Corp., Delphi, Ford, General Motors, Genuine Parts Co., Goodyear Tire & Rubber, Johnson Controls, Lear Corp., Lithi

7、a Motors, Magna Intl Inc., Standard Motor Products, Superior Industries, Tenneco, Tower Automotive, United Auto Group and Visteon Corporation.The research analysts, strategist, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of the research report have received compensation based

8、upon various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues and investment banking revenues.Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated makes a market in the securities of Aftermarket Technology, Delphi, Dura Automotive, Ford, General Mo

9、tors, Magna Intl., TBC and Tower Automotive.Global Stock Ratings Distribution(as of December 31, 2003)(Continued) Coverage Universe Investment Banking Client (IBC)Stock Rating CategoryCount% of totalCount% of total IBC% of Rating CategoryOverweight592322413841Equal-Weight856462874634Underweight40222

10、9816Total1,850 626DisclosuresDisclosuresMorgan Stanley is involved in many businesses that may relate to companies mentioned in this report. These businesses include specialized trading, risk arbitrage and other proprietary trading, fund management, investment services and investment banking.Morgan

11、Stanley makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive information, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. We have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change apart from when we intend to discontinue research coverage of subject company.Rep

12、orts prepared by Morgan Stanley research personnel are based on public information. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed by, and may not reflect information known to, professionals in other Morgan Stanley business areas, including investment banking personnel.The value of

13、and income from your investments may vary because of changes in interest rates or foreign exchange rates, securities prices or market indexes, operational or financial conditions of companies or other factors. There may be time limitations on the exercise of options or other rights in your securitie

14、s transactions. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Estimates of future performance are based on assumptions that may not be realized.This publication is disseminated in Japan by Morgan Stanley Japan Limited and/or Morgan Stanley Nippon Securities Limited; in Singapore

15、 by organ Stanley Dean Witter Asia (Singapore) Pte., regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore; in Australia by Morgan Stanley Dean Witter Australia Limited A.B.N. 67 003 734 576, a licensed dealer, which accepts responsibility for its contents; in certain provinces of Canada by Morgan Stanle

16、y Canada Limited, which has approved of, and has agreed to take responsibility for, the contents of this publication in Canada; in Spain by Morgan Stanley, S.V.,S.A., a Morgan Stanley group company, which is supervised by the Spanish Securities Markets Commission (CNMV) and states that this document

17、 has been written and distributed in accordance with the rules of conduct applicable to financial research as established under Spanish regulations; in the United States by Morgan Stanley & Co. Incorporated and Morgan Stanley DW Inc., which accept responsibility for its contents; and in the Unit

18、ed Kingdom, this publication is approved by Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited, solely for the purposes of section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000. Private U.K. investors should obtain the advice of their Morgan Stanley & Co. International Limited representative abo

19、ut the investment concerned.The trademarks and service marks contained herein are the property of their respective owners. Third-party data providers make no warranties or representations of any kind relating to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the data they provide and shall not have li

20、ability for any damages of any kind relating to such data. The Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) was developed by and is the exclusive property of MSCI and S&P.This report or any portion hereof may not be reprinted, sold or redistributed without the written consent of Morgan Stanley

21、.Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.OverviewAuto Outlook: Same problems; Less of themGlobal Dilemma: Most participants spending for growth yet the industry does not grow.Demand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery.Competitive pressures are lik

22、ely to remain difficult.Weaker dollar could level provide some offset.Higher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earnings.Big Three opportunity: Actual quality is better than perceived quality.Global Light Vehicle Sales: Slow GrowthCAGR 1.2%Source: LMCJ.D. Power

23、& Morgan Stanley ResearchGlobal Sales Forecasts: 2003 - 2004Source: Global Insight & Morgan Stanley Research* Note forecasts are derived from Global Insight(in MM units)2003E2004E% ChngNorth America16.716.80.6%Western Europe%Japan%Korea *%South America%I

24、ndia *0.80.913.5%China1.92.425.0%Global Light Vehicle Sales ForecastU.S. Sales16.7mm UnitsFY03E16.8mm UnitsFY04ESource: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchJapanese SAAR5.6mm UnitsFY03E5.7mm UnitsFY04ESource: Morgan Stanley ResearchWestern European SAAR14.1mmFY03E14.2mmFY04ESource: Morgan Stanley

25、ResearchGlobal Excess Capacity at 25%-30%or 20mm unitsSource: Autofacts & Morgan Stanley ResearchCapEx / D&A FY2003E: OEMs Spending for GrowthSource: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research*Adjusted to fit scale0%50%100%150%200%250%KiaHyundaiNissanBMWMazdaHondaMitsubishiRenaultFordVWDCXPS

26、AFIATToyotaGMZero Sum GameGlobal Dilemma: Most participants are spending for growth, yet the industry does not grow.Slow growth & excess capacity suggest deflation / revenue pressures are likely to continue.Not everybody can be a winner.Winners will be low cost producers who deliver a good produ

27、ct that consumers are willing to pay for.Modest Demand GrowthDemand growth is likely to be modest despite economic recovery:Auto sales did not weaken materially in the most recent recession and thus, significant pent-up demand was never created.The number of off-lease vehicles is falling sharply few

28、er consumers are being forced back to a dealer to buy or lease a new vehicle.Extended financing terms are likely to prolong vehicle turnover.Economic conditions appear mixed.Light Vehicle Sales Trend Line DemandSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchVehicle Sales1986-2004Ey = 163.56x + 13712R2 = 0.405912,00

29、013,00014,00015,00016,00017,00018,0001986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004E(in 000 units)TroughPeak20022003Trendline Growth 1.0%2004ELight Vehicle Sales Cycle: Trough to TroughSource: R.L. Polk, Global Insight & Morgan Stanley ResearchDurationMagnitudeStandardStd. Dev.Cycle(yrs)(unit

30、s)HighLowMean Deviationas % of Mean1961-1966655,097 10,8856,8729,1831,54716.8%1967-1969331,767 11,35210,14710,5896646.3%1970-1974561,563 14,20110,52912,3131,42511.6%1975-1981790,150 14,96610,71012,8791,66012.9%1982-199110139,134 15,79610,32613,9131,96014.1%1992-2004E13203,398 18,08912,79415,6461,598

31、10.2%Weighted Median Age of a Vehicle vs. Sales1 Year Lead Correlation 77.6%Source: Polk & Morgan Stanley ResearchOff Lease Vehicles Begin to DeclineSource: Manheim & Morgan Stanley ResearchFewer Consumers Being Forced Back to the Dealerships2,8903,2753,4523,3032,7652,3832,0002,4002,8003,200

32、3,600200020012002200320042005385177(149)(538)(382)Average Maturity of Vehicle Loans (months)Source: Federal Reserve Board & Morgan Stanley Research30.0040.0050.0060.0070.00Jun-71Jun-74Jun-77Jun-80Jun-83Jun-86Jun-89Jun-92Jun-95Jun-98Jun-01Taking Longer to Establish Consumer EquitySource: FRB &

33、; Morgan Stanley Research($10,000)($5,000)$0$5,000$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000048121620242832364044485256Payment MonthsEquity Value1.9% 72 mnths - domestic0.0% 60 mnths - domestic0.0% 36 mnths- domesticPos. Equity in 44 mnthsPos. Equity in 33 mnthsPos. Equity in 16 mnthsEconomic Conditions Be

34、tter than they were, but still not robustSource: CPI & Morgan Stanley ResearchPeakTroughNowJan-02Oct-02Nov-03Interest RatesConsumer ConfidenceGasoline PricesUsed Car PricesEmploymentAffordability Near 25 Year BestNumber of Weeks of Income to Purchase a VehicleSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley Res

35、earchIntense CompetitionCompetitive pressures are likely to remain difficult:Capacity growth to continue in 2004.Pricing is likely to remain difficult although a weak dollar may provide a modest offset.Market share pressures to continue as well.NA Capacity Additions, Despite Flat Sls OutlookSource:

36、Company data & Morgan Stanley Research20052003FordNissan(122)2503082004FordGM(211)(98)80= 100,000 unitsGMFordHondaNissanToyota125(146)18020030Net Increase Of 853,000 Units or Roughly 5.1% of NA sales2006Toyota150389180ToyotaDCXHyundai 2356Excess Capacity & More Is On The WayEvery 1% Pt. of M

37、arket Share Translates into $1.0bn in Profits853,000 Units of Added Capacity is 5.1% of NA Capacity,or $5bn in Pretax ProfitsNA Pretax ProfitBig ThreeFY03E (in MM)$1,971Source: Morgan Stanley Research EstimatesRevenue Pressures Worst Since 1970sNew Car CPI vs. Domestic Light Vehicle SalesSource: CPI

38、 & Morgan Stanley ResearchY/Y Change in Monthly New Car CPISource: CPI & Morgan Stanley Research-2.5%-2.0%-1.5%-1.0%-0.5%0.0%0.5%Jan-01 Apr-01 Jul-01 Oct-01 Jan-02 Apr-02 Jul-02 Oct-02 Jan-03 Apr-03 Jul-03 Oct-03Price Reductions Pressure ManufacturersEvery 1% Decline in Prices is Worth-$1.0b

39、n at GM-$850mm at Ford-$550mm at DCXSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchBig Three Market Share Continues to Slide76.0%60.2%61.7%Every 1% Point of Share is Worth Roughly $1bn in ProfitSource: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchMarket Share Winners / Losers FY03Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Rese

40、archFY03Gainers% Pts of ShrLosers % Pts of ShrToyota0.8%Ford-0.7%Honda0.7%Mitsubishi-0.5%Nissan0.4%General Motors-0.4%Hyundai0.2%Chrysler-0.3%Volvo0.2%Volkswagen-0.2%Big Three Share of Sales by Segment: FY-03 vs. FY-02Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research-5.0%-4.5%-2.6%-1.9%-1.0%5.0%7.9%-8.

41、0%-4.0%0.0%4.0%8.0%MinivanSport W agonLuxury CarMiddle SUVSmall PickupSmall SUVLuxury SUVUS Dollar per Euro: Jan 03 - PresentSource: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research$1.00$1.05$1.10$1.15$1.20$1.25$1.301/1/20032/1/20033/1/20034/1/20035/1/20036/1/20037/1/20038/1/20039/1/200310/1/200311/1/200312/1/

42、20031/1/2004U.S. Dollar per EuroJapanese Yen vs. U.S. DollarSource: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research100110120130 Jan-99 Nov-99 Sep-00Jul-01May-02Mar-03 Strength at 102 per US$ Weakness at 134 per US$ Strength at 109 per US$Yen to US Dollar Price Sensitivity: YTD 03Source: Company Data & Mor

43、gan Stanley ResearchNote: * Includes Acura, Infiniti, Lexus YTD -03Imp %Dom % OEM*ImportDomesticOEM Totalof Totalof TotalToyota629,547 935,619 1,565,166 40%60%Honda271,004 880,637 1,151,641 24%76%Nissan235,201 428,380 663,581 35%65%YTD -03Import Domestic Weighted AvgBased on Every 1 OEM* Content Con

44、tent Content20000Move EqualsToyota100%24%55%$10,914$93Honda100%3%26%$5,165$44Nissan100%20%48%$9,671$82Weaker Dollar Could Help a LittleSource: Morgan Stanley ResearchCorrelations Yen / $ vs. CPI New CarTime FrameCorrelationJan-81 through May-95-91.1%Jun-95 through Oct-032.8%Global Operating Margins

45、FY02 Source: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research*Morgan Stanley EstimatesExcluding Pension & OPEB Expense for the Big ThreePorscheNissanBMWHondaToyotaHyundaiGMPeugeotKiaVWDCXRenaultFordFiat16.4%10.6% 8.9% 8.4% 8.1% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.0% 3.8% 1.7% 1.8% -6.2%Higher Rates Could be a Negat

46、iveHigher rates create risk of weaker demand, weaker mix and lower finance company earningsExtended terms suggest longer replacement rates.Every 1% increase in financing rates on 5-year loans is worth $730-750 per vehicle.Auto Finance Terms: Fall 2001 vs. NowSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley Research

47、MonthlyAvg AmtMonthlyLoan to Impl PriceAPRMaturity Financed PaymentValueof VehicleAug-016.41%57.68 22,591$ ($456)91.26%24,754$ Sep-015.42%57.20 23,049$ ($458)92.07%25,034$ Aug-022.17%59.44 26,208$ ($465)96.28%27,221$ Sep-022.29%58.40 26,396$ ($478)96.25%27,424$ Oct-022.62%57.24 26,232$ ($488)95.86%2

48、7,365$ Nov-023.41%57.16 26,266$ ($498)95.27%27,570$ Apr-032.51%60.06 27,540$ ($488)97.00%28,392$ May-032.40%60.74 27,920$ ($489)97.33%28,686$ Jun-032.93%62.43 26,945$ ($466)96.82%27,830$ Jul-033.28%62.68 26,129$ ($454)95.18%27,453$ Aug-033.56%63.00 25,407$ ($443)93.38%27,208$ Sep-033.81%63.24 25,663

49、$ ($449)93.79%27,362$ Oct-033.92%63.52 26,067$ ($455)93.57%27,858$ Nov-033.93%62.86 26,306$ ($464)93.72%28,069$ GMAC / FMCC Borrowing CostsSource: FRB & Morgan Stanley ResearchGMACFMCC5 Yr Treasury2.0%3.0%4.0%5.0%6.0%7.0%8.0%1Q963Q961Q973Q971Q983Q981Q993Q991Q004Q001Q013Q011Q023Q021Q033Q03Big 3 O

50、pportunity: Actual Quality is Better than Perceived Quality-80.0-60.0-40.0-20.00.020.040.0MercuryInfinitiBuickLincolnChryslerLexusPorscheOldsmobileSaabAcuraSubaruToyotaCadillacNissanJeepSuzukiHondaFordMazdaChevrolet / GeoJaguarPontiacSaturnDodgeIsuzuBMWAudiHyundaiMitsubishiMercedesVolvoVolkswagenKia

51、Range RoverActual - Perceived Quality GapActual quality perceived quality = share opportunitySource: JD Power, CNW & Morgan Stanley ResearchThe Big Three: Positives & NegativesEach Company Faces Unique Challenges:GM has operational momentum and has made significant strides relative to its fi

52、xed legacy costs.Fords share is likely to remain under pressure. While earnings and cost cutting have been strong, cash flow needs to catch up.DCX continues to struggle with its product line. Quality issues, both perceived (Chrysler) and actual (Mercedes) continue to linger.Big Three Relative Stock

53、Performance: 2003Source: FactSet & Morgan Stanley Research60.080.0100.0120.0140.0160.0180.01/2/20032/2/20033/2/20034/2/20035/2/20036/2/20037/2/20038/2/20039/2/200310/2/200311/2/200312/2/2003GMFDCXSPXGeneral MotorsGM still appears to have a variable cost advantage vs. F & DCX and a fixed cost

54、 disadvantage.GMs aggressive funding of pension and healthcare have helped to narrow the fixed cost disadvantage.Significant new product launches give GM its best chance of gaining share/reducing incentives in years.GM is going into 2004 with above average inventory.Finance company earnings are like

55、ly to decline due to higher interest rates and lower mortgage refinancing activity.GM Market Share35.5%28.0%28.4%Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchU.S. Healthcare & Pension Cost/Unit FY03Source: Company data & Morgan Stanley Research$1,134$601$1,159$814$889$740$1,899$902$1074$185

56、$88GM Pension Funded Status: 2003 UpdateSource: Company Data & Morgan Stanley ResearchComponents(in $ billions)YE 2002(17.8)Service & Interest Cost(6.0)Labor Contract(2.1)2003 YTD Contribution14.4Dec 2003 Contribution4.150 bps Lower Discount Rate(3.8)18% Asset Returns10.8YE 2003 Forecast(0.4

57、)GM Has Built Inventory in 2003Source: Autodata & Morgan Stanley ResearchInv BuildInv BuildDec 02 - Dec 03Dec 01 - Dec 02DiffGM175,89671,097104,799F(1,800)161,200(163,000)DCX3,70875,601(71,893)Big 3177,804307,898(130,094)Financial Service Earnings Unlikely to Match 2003Source: Company data &

58、 Morgan Stanley ResearchPretax Profit200120022003EGM (in USD mm)2,876 2,969 4,229 F (in USD mm)1,532 2,153 3,153 DCX (in EUR mm)578 964 1,328 GM New / Replacement / Redesigned ProductsSource: Company Data, Wards Automotive & Morgan Stanley ResearchBrandProductIntro DateCadillacSRXSep-03CadillacX

59、LRSep-03ChevroletMalibu2003ChevroletColoradoDec-03ChevroletEquinoxearly 2004ChevroletCorvette2004PontiacG62004CadillacSTS2004Hummer H-32004ChevroletCobaltJun-05Saab9-52005Ford Motor CompanyEarnings have exceeded expectations. Now cash flow needs to catch up.With the exception of the F-Series, new pr

60、oducts are limited until year-end, suggesting share pressure is likely to continue.International Operations / Premier Auto Group need to start pulling their weight.Stability in management ranks is important.F Market ShareSource: Autodata & Morgan Stanley Research19.6%19.5%20.2%25.7%F vs. GM Cash FlowSource: Company reports & Morgan Stanley ResearchGM vs Ford cash flow 9 mos 03OperatingGMFGM/b/(w) than FordNet IncomeD&A5.24.01.2Capx-4.5-5.61.1W/C-0.3-1.41.1Operating excluding timing differences1