美股餐饮行业北美餐饮业2019年下半年展望

1、North America Equity Research28 June 20192H19 Outlook - where to add, what to avoidWe continue to use Dec-2019 price targets and focus on our expected remainder of year price performance.Tactical trading ideas for July/2H19:Add now/Trading ideas: DPZ, EAT, MCD, USFD > SYY, WEN Buy lower: BLMN, SB

2、UXOverextended/Neutral: CMG, CAKE, DRI, PLNT, TXRH, DFRGSource of Funds: DNKN, SHAK, YUMRestaurants John Ivankoe AC (1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeBloomberg JPMA IVANKOE <GO>Brandon Sonnemaker(1-212) 622-4944brandon.sonnemakerAndrew Halvorson(1-212) 622-1793andrew.halvorsonJ.P. Morgan Securities

3、LLCSummary:Bloomin Brands: lower 2Q comp and EPS should provide better entry point post-2Q earnings.Brinker International: Increased FCF focus at August 15 analyst day to bring more attention to 8.6% F19 FCF yield.Chipotle Mexican Grill: Narrative intact. F20 consensus still too low. Darden Restaura

4、nts: post earnings believe stock is fully valued.Del Friscos Restaurant Group: L Catterton $8.00 offering slightly less for Company than our $8.50 sum-of-parts.Dominos Pizza: Low cost delivery m be weathered. Still own here.allowing competitive storm toEquity Ratings and Price TargetsMkt Cap ($ mn)

5、Rating Price TargetCompanyTickerPrice ($)CurPrevCurEnd Date Dec-19PrevEnd Date n/cBloomin' Brands Brinker InternationalChipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. Darden RestaurantsDel Friscos Restaurant Group Domino's Pizza IncDunkin' Brands McDonald's Planet Fitness Shake Shack StarbucksSysco Cor

6、poration Texas Roadhouse Inc.The Cheesecake Factory, Inc. The Wendy's CompanyUS Foods Yum BrandsBLMN US EAT US CMG US DRI US DFRG US DPZ US DNKN US MCD US PLNT US SHAK US SBUX US SYY US TXRH US CAKE US WEN US USFD US YUM US1,743.881,487.4220,360.8115,226.63264.8611,729.746,648.70159,157.906,849.

7、652,653.65104,508.5036,616.213,928.421,975.704,597.577,811.2534,615.9618.8239.04724.12121.547.94277.9479.69206.2773.1369.9683.5670.4454.4243.9219.4935.65110.56OW N N N N OW N OW NUW OW OW UW N OW OW Nn/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c22.0044.00650.00122.008.00290.007

8、3.00215.0066.0058.0081.0075.0055.0045.0021.0040.00102.0023.0048.00600.00n/c 8.50n/c 74.00195.00n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c 52.0020.00n/c 97.00Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19 Dec-19n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c n/c

9、 n/c n/cSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 27 Jun 19.See page 85 for analyst certification and important disclosures.J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware

10、 thatthe firm may have aof interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a singlefactor in making their investment decision.获取报告1、2、3、每周群内7+报告；当日华尔街日报、4、行研报告均为公开利归原作者所有，起点财经仅分发做内部学习。扫一扫关注 回复：加入“起点财经”群。John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoe

11、North America Equity Research28 June 2019Dunkin Brands: Use as source of funds. US growth rate has slowed and 3.4% F19 FCF yield not enough to own.McDonalds: F19 lapping the difficult F18 in US, developed market strength should continue. Not too expensive.Planet Fitness: Good for what it is, and for

12、 what its not. Scarcity value thesis intact.Shake Shack: Potential for higher pricing may help margins, but we continue to look at lower new unit AUVs y/y for UW.Starbucks: High exposure to China growth may cause increased worry. Peaking US comps may offer better entry point.Sysco Corporation: Cutti

13、ng costs to hit targets, yet trends still need to improve to hit low-end.Texas Roadhouse: stock at lows and possible labor cost containment could get us more interested.The Cheesecake Factory: No longer valuing “ex-growth,” margin expansion continues to be difficult.The Wendys Company: Ticket driven

14、 comps and high FCF yield should support shares higher.US Foods: Major acquisition still not closed, but believe core business in good shape. We like here.Yum Brands: “bond proxy” alive and well but higher capex compresses FCF yield. Use as source of funds.Industry Trends:“Yield stocks” such as MCD,

15、 YUM, DNKN, and WEN have seen their yields compress along with the 10-year, which peaked at 3.24% in 4Q18 to its recent low of 1.99%. Using FCF as a primary valuation driver creates very sensitive equity values, but we continue to believe that the continued run in these “body proxy” stocks has been

16、largely supported by the rapid decline in the 10-year yield. Of the four, MCD and WEN are the two to own for the remainder of 2019. We are still sensitive to absolutes and do not expect to lower our FCF yield expectations any further.The restaurant industry according to government CPI-FAFH data (upd

17、ated as of May) is now taking pricing at a near cycle-high 2.9% and also on top of the 1990-2018 secular 2-3% average annual price increases. Independently, Knapp shows average ticket gains of 2.7% and BlackBox shows 3.2% in May. Basic economic indicators such as 1.6% y/y employment growth and 3.1%

18、growth in average hourly earnings would suggest better than the negative SSS traffic seen across most public2John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeNorth America Equity Research28 June 2019restaurant companies.Grocery pricing has been below restaurants since1Q15 with accumulated pricing driving som

19、e consumers to grocerypurchases. While some data is contradictory, we see net effective independent restaurant growth drive total industry supply growth beyond demand. We see industry pricing at a near-term peak despite what are continued cost pressures. Partially due to an uptick in pricing as well

20、 as growth in independents that need value-added services to reduce labor costs, we like the two Foodservice distributors under our coverage. While both OW rated, we prefer USFD over SYY.Some companies have suggested a “leveling out” of y/y wage rate increases and government data concurs with this s

21、tatement (many states have already enacted their largest wage increases, see slides 83-87). The US economy has experienced 104 months of consecutive job growth, the longest employment recovery in US history. Overall workforce participation is not at cycle highs and suggests a few more points of empl

22、oyment growth could come from participation rates increasing (slide 23). Still, the effectiveness and efficiency of store labor especially in labor intensive roles does present “real world” execution problems that a well thought out brand/strategic campaign may not foresee. In our experience, end of

23、 cycle execution goes down while costs increase.African swine flu (ASF) is a constant topic with much mork ofuncertainty/“wait and see” vs outright worry. Pork exposure across ourcomplex is generally under 5% of COGS. We look at lean hog futures, which have moderated from their >40% pop and in fa

24、ct 4Q20 prices are back equal to mid-2017 prices. Live and feeder cattle both sit near cycle lows through F20, with a record number of well-fed animals currently on their way to market. Higher-graded whole muscle steak costs are much more expensive than pork, and we believe this segment should be pr

25、otected in a global protein reallocation. Chicken is more complicated, as Asia generally prefers dark/on the bone products, while Americans prefer boneless skinless breast. For example, chicken leg quarters are up 12% y/y while boneless skinless breasts are up 2.5% in 2Q19 (see slides 66-82 for comm

26、odity details). Tariffs/global trade politics throw a wrench in any analysis, especially relevant as China loses 20-30% of their 710m home grown hog supply. C20 commodity guidance is completely unavailable, but both ASF and currently high corn (feed) prices should break the years- long trend of near

27、-zero inflation. Our only OW rating in casual dining is BLMN, and even for them we believe 2Q19 results may give an opportu to buy shares lower.“Scarcity value of growth” continues for at least three of our names CMG, PLNT, and SHAK. PLNT is in a rare position of being “amazon proof” and recession r

28、esistant given its $10/month entry price point, very“labor light” business m, and of course has no interest in the letters“ASF.” The comp waterfall (new unit volumes maturing) drives high visibility into MSD-HSD SSS and strong unit returns matched with siteavailability drive unit expansion. Still, a

29、t 35.0x F20 EPS even previously3John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeNorth America Equity Research28 June 2019accretive recaps are now dilutive. We maintain 9.9% SSS at PLNT for 2Q19 and 9.7% for F19. CMG continues to “own a narrative” around digital initiatives driving the most profitable pick-u

30、p business as well as delivery and loyalty programs that suggest incrementality from a sales and margin perspective. Efficient marketing spending and upcoming new products allow increase of 2Q19 comps from 8% to 9.0% and F19 from 8.1% to 8.3%. While momentum remains in the stock, we believe the valu

31、e of the business is lower. SHAKs small comp base 51% of domestic Company units and 17.6% short interest continues to drive volatility in shares and 2Q19 sales seems to be performing well despite higher costs. We value SHAK on a “growth-normalized” income statement and still cannot justify shares wh

32、ere they are. We recommend using SHAK as a source of funds.We are also publishing our J.P. Morgan Restaurant Handbook. Among the 91 slides, we are pulling forward a few of the most interesting/relevant slides at the front of the deck for easy viewing. These include:··Slide 2: Restaurant in

33、dustry supply & demandSlide 3: CPI Food Away From Home inflation vs CPI Food Away From Home InflationSlides 4: Miller Pulse QSR comp, traffic, and check Slide 5: White meat vs dark meat chicken prices Slide 6: US lean hog current and futures prices Slide 7: Live/feeder cattle pricesSlide 8: Food

34、 Distributor Gross Margin correlation to CPI FAFH less PPI Final demand-Finished consumer foodsSlide 9: Quality of job growth relative to the national average earnings·······Slide 10: Restaurant wage inflation vs total wage inflation4John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487joh

35、n.ivankoeNorth America Equity Research28 June 2019Bloomin' BrandsOverweightBLMN,BLMN USPrice: $18.82 Price Target: $22.00Previous: $23.00We dont believe immediate share price performance of +9.0% post-4Q18 and+7.0% post-1Q19 will repeat itself when 2Q19 eps is reported. If anything, results may

36、give a modestly better entry point in what is still an undervalued stock.Bloomin Brands remains our sole OW-rated stock within our casual dining universe. We expect the domestic Outback brand to continue its 9-quarter run of comp outperformance relative to the industry but believe a softer April Kna

37、pp (down 0.9%) and an even more disappointing Florida Knapp result in May (down 2.4%) impacted the predominantly Florida-based company (21% domestic CO unit exposure). We are tweaking our 2Q domestic Outback comp down from +3.0% to +2.5%. Brazil commodity markets are already increasing and we are tw

38、eaking down international store margins (11% of revenue, 20% of segment operating income) as a result. New F19 eps goes from $1.56 to $1.54 and F20 from $1.77 to $1.73. We value BLMN at a 7.0% F20 FCF yield, which equates to a $22 Dec-2019 price target down from$23 previously. This represents a 12.7

39、x P/E and 7.1x EV/EBITDA multiple. Please see Table 1 for an overview of our estimates and our numbers vs consensus.United States Restaurants John Ivankoe AC(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeBloomberg JPMA IVANKOE <GO>J.P. Morgan Securities LLCPrice Performance21$ 191715Jun-18Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19BLM

40、N share price ($ RTY (rebased)Jun-19 YTD1m3m12mAbs Rel5.2%-9.5%2.4%0.3%-6.4%-8.0%-8.8%-3.1%OverweightBloomin' Brands, Inc. (BLMN;BLMN US)Company DataYear-end Dec ($)FY17AFY18AFY19E(Prev)FY19E(Curr)FY20E(Prev)FY20E(Curr)FY21EShares O/S (mn) 52-week range ($) Market cap ($ mn) Exchange rate Free f

41、loat(%)3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 3M - Avg daily val ($ mn)Volatility (90 Day) Index9322.22-17.081,743.881.0097.6%1.7534.2Revenue ($ mn) Gross margin Adj. EBIT ($ mn)Adj. EBITDA ($ mn) Adj. EPS ($)BBG EPS ($)Reported EPS ($) Dividend yield Adj. P/E EV/EBITDA4,223- 2073931.321.341.32- 14.34.14,126- 1883

42、841.501.461.50- 12.64.34,154- 2044011.56- 1.56- 12.14.74,144- 2033991.541.571.54- 12.34.24,306- 2244281.77- 1.77- 10.64.44,285- 2214241.731.721.73- 10.94.0- 1.94-34RUSSELL20007|3|2BBG BUY|HOLD|SELLSource: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.Table5John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeNo

43、rth America Equity Research28 June 20191: BLMN - JPM vs ConsensusSource: Company reports, J P. Morgan estimates, and Consensus Metrix.62Q19JPMEStreetFY-2019JPMEStreetGuidanceFY-2020JPMEStreetOutback Steakhouse US Company Owned SSS2.5%3.0%BLMN Blended Company Owned SSS1.9%2.2%Systemwide Unit Count1,4

44、831,486Company-Owned Sales1,0181,019Other Revenue1717Total Revenue1,0351,036Restaurant Level Profit150153G&A7373EBITDA93.996.9D&A4950Operating Income44.946.6Interest Expense1112Taxes33Shares O/S9291EPS$0.33$0.352.5%3.0%2.0%2.1%2.0-2.5%1,5051,49620 gross4,0764,10869674,1444,176605615273274399

45、.5406.2196200203.2205.8454612139291$1.54$1.57$1.53-1.612.0%2.2%1.6%1.7%1,5211,5144,2134,20572714,2854,276628627275275423.9422.2203206221.1215.8454719158888$1.73$1.72Growth Rates / MarginsSystemwide Unit Growth(0.1%)0.1%Total Revenue Growth0.3%0.4%Restaurant-Level Margin (% of CO Sales)14.7%15.0%y/y

46、change (bps)(15)14G&A (% of Revenue)7.1%7.0%y/y change (bps)(17)(20)EBITDA $ Growth2.4%5.6%Operating Income (% of Revenue)4.3%4.5%y/y change (bps)2339EPS Growth(13.2%)(7.8%)1.5%0.9%0.4%1.2%14.915.0%16276.6%6.6%(10)(12)4.0%5.7%4.9%4.9%4.8-5.0%3537implied 24-44bp2.6%4.8%1.1%1.2%3.4%3.2%14.9%14.9%4

47、(6)6.4%6.4%(17)(15)6.1%5.7%5.2%5.0%261412.4%12.0%John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeNorth America Equity Research28 June 2019Table 2: BLMN Dec-19 Price Target152,585202,772F20 Adj. Net IncomeF20 D&AF20 CapexF20 JPM Adj. FCF for Valuation(215,000)140,357FCF Target FCF YieldF20 Beginning Equi

48、ty Value F20 Beginning Shares7.0%2,005,10389,710F20 Adj. EPSImplied PE Multiple$1.7312.7xF20 Beginning Equity ValueF20 Beginning Net Debt2,005,103993,4322,998,535423,9207.1xF20 Beginning EV F20 EBITDAImplied Beg F20 EV / F20 EBITDACurrent PriceDec-19 Price Target Upside / (Downside)Upside / (Downsid

49、e) Annualized C19 Current Dividend YieldTotal Shareholder Return Annualized$18.82$22.00 16.9%35.2%2.1%37.3%Source: Company reports and J.P. Morgan estimates.7Dec-19 Price Target$22.00John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeNorth America Equity Research28 June 2019Investment Thesis, Valuation and Ris

50、ks Bloomin' Brands, Inc. (Overweight; Price Target: $22.00) Investment ThesisRemain Overweight. As initially detailed in our note following our Santa Barbaraconference in September 2018, BLMNs elevated G&A relative to peers (on a % ofsales basis) and multi-year store-level reinvestment creat

51、es an opportufor moderateEBIT margin expansion of 30bp annually throughout F19/20 (vs. long-term target of50bp annually). Continued domestic Outback comp momentum driven by $50m of store-level reinvestment over the past three years coupled with an increasing mix of higher margin international busine

52、ss and leverage across G&A and marketing should propel this stock higher.ValuationLowering our December 2019 price target to $22 from previous $23. Our Dec 2019 price target is based on a 7.0% F20 FCF Yield, which would imply a 12.7x P/E and 7.1x EV/EBITDA multiple relative to the closest peer E

53、AT (a company with few levers left to pull in order to drive EBIT margin expansion) trading at 7.0x C20 EBITDA.Risks to Rating and Price TargetDownside risks to our Overweight rating and price target include a softer than expected macro environment and lower comps. Additionally, the company is aggre

54、ssively expanding off-premise, which could add additional complexity at the store level and result in comp and margin degradation. Potential upside catalysts such as restructuring and G&A cost reductions might not be realized.8John Ivankoe(1-212) 622-6487john.ivankoeNorth America Equity Research28 June 2019Bloomin' Brands: Summary of FinancialsIncome Statement - AnnualFY18AFY19EFY20EFY21E