欧洲光伏协会-太阳能产业发展

1、欧洲光伏协会-“太阳能光伏产业的发展前景及其对中国市场的影响” 简报会召开(发布日期：2011-2-25 10:13:00 浏览人数：348 2011年2月23 日，上海 Shanghai, 23 February 2011光伏能源中国重要能源 Photovoltaic Energy: A key source of energy for China欧洲光伏产业协会（EPIA）将于今天在“SNEC第五届(2011国际太阳能产业及光伏工程（上海）展览会暨论坛”上发布其近期出版的调研报告释放阳光地带国家光伏潜力。该发布活动获得了中国可再生能源学会 (“CRES”、上海新能源行业协会（SNEIA）和

2、科尔尼管理咨询公司的共同支持。 The European Photovoltaic (PV Industry Association (EPIA will today present its recent publication Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of Photovoltaics at SNEC 5th (2011 International Solar PV Power Generation Conference & Exhibition (Shanghai with the support of Chinese Renewable Energy

3、 Society (“CRES” and Shanghai New Energy Industry Association (SNEIA and the management consultancy firm A.T. Kearney.当今世界位于“阳光地带”的国家占世界总人口的75%, 拥有全球40%的电力需求。此外，预计未来20年，约80%的电力需求将源自于此地区快速发展的经济体。由于阳光地带国家拥有丰富的太阳辐射资源以及通常较高的发电成本，这些地区的光伏能源具有得天独厚的竞争潜力，为光伏能源在2020年前成为主流能源，并在2030年前成为主要电力来源带来巨大机会。Countries of

4、 the worlds Sunbelt represent today about 75% of the worlds population and 40% of the global electricity demand. Furthermore, about 80% of the forecasted growth of the world electricity demand in the coming 20 years will originate from fast developing economies in that region. Characterized by an in

5、tense solar irradiation and often, high electricity generation costs, countries of the Sunbelt, where PV has a unique competitive potential, constitute an immense opportunity for PV to become mainstream by 2020 and to become a major electricity source by 2030.这是今天欧洲光伏产业协会（EPIA）所作报告释放阳光地带国家光伏潜力的主要研究结

6、论。在战略咨询公司科尔尼的支持下，此报告对处于“阳光地带”的66个国家进行了详细的调研，这些国家共拥有50亿人口，占世界总人口的95%。尽管此地区太阳辐射资源特别丰富，但目前仅占全球光伏装机容量的9%， 这明确表明“阳光地带”国家丰富的太阳能资源尚有巨大的开发潜力。 That is the main conclusion of the study presented today by the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA, “Unlocking the Sunbelt potential of photovoltaics”.

7、Carried out with the support of the Strategy Consulting Firm A.T. Kearney, this report looks in detail at 66 countries which compose the Sunbelt, representing 5 billion people and 95% of the areas population. Despite the exceptional solar irradiation registered in these countries, at present they re

8、present only 9% of the global installed PV capacity, which clearly shows that the high solar potential of Sunbelt countries remains largely untapped.除中国以外，目前全球前10大光伏市场位于“阳光地带”以外地区，EPIA报告强调，应鼓励光伏行业和“阳光地带”地区国家政府确保对潜在重要光伏市场的产能供应，并加强其充分利用光伏能源创造更多国内经济价值的承诺。人金融机构进行协作以加快光伏技术的使用，不但将其作为农村电气化来源，还将其作为主流能源来源来使用

9、。” Apart from China, all the top 10 major PV markets in the world are currently located outside the Sunbelt region. EPIAs report highlights the need to encourage the PV industry and Sunbelt governments alike to ensure the capacity to serve these soon-to-be very important markets and increase their c

10、ommitment to significantly contribute to domestic economic value creation. 中国是世界上重要的阳光地带国家，拥有巨大的光伏发电能力。中国已经拥有了世界上最大规模的光伏发电能力，并且面临促进经济所需的日益增长的电力需求，该报告强调了中国在推动光伏发电在阳光地带发展中扮演的关键角色。中国可再生能源学会光伏专委会秘书长吴达成说：“大家都知道，十二五计划已确立了可再生能源行业的重要战略地位，在此计划中，光伏能源比起其他可替代能源具有更加独特的优势，因此，它将在本世纪替代传统能源资源上扮演重要角色。” 中国国务院参赞、上海新能源行

11、业协会会长石定寰进一步指出：“各级政府需要进一步努力为太阳能行业的发展创造更加有利可图的运营环境。” China, in particular, features in the top echelon of Sunbelt countries with a tremendous PV potential. Already commanding the worlds largest PV manufacturing capacity, and faced with steeply increasing electricity demand to power its economy, the re

12、port also highlights Chinas crucial role going forward for PV in the Sunbelt. It is well known that China has earmarked the renewable energy sector as one of huge strategic importance in its 12th Five Year Plan. Within this, PV has distinct advantages over other alternative energies, and as such, wi

13、ll play a major role in replacing traditional energy sources this century remarked Mr. Wu Dacheng, PV Professional Committee of CRES. Mr. Shi Dinghuan, counselor of Chinas State Council and also President of CRES added that governments at different levels need to further efforts to provide a more pr

14、ofitable operating environment for the solar energy sector 此调研分别根据投资吸引力、光伏竞争潜力等标准评估各个国家，识别出3大典型部署场景。根据各场景的不同，“阳光地带”国家的光伏潜能将在2020年前达到60-250兆瓦，在2030年前达到260-1100兆瓦，届时将占全球光伏总装机容量的27-58%。由于光伏发电系统价格有望在2030年降低66%, 已在一些国家的尖端发电技术中脱颖而出的光伏发电成本将随之迅速降低。 The study, which looks for each country at criteria such as

15、 investment attractiveness, and the competitive potential of PV, identifies 3 typical deployment scenarios. It shows that the PV potential of the Sunbelt countries could range, depending on the scenario, from 60 to 250 GW by 2020, and from 260 to 1,100 GW in 2030, representing 27-58% of the forecast

16、ed global installed PV capacity by then. With system prices expected to decrease by up to 66% in 2030, PV electricity, already competitive today with some peak generation technologies in a number of countries, would see its generation costs dropping fast. 按EPIA董事会主席Murray Cameron的话说：“中国目前已将平准化能源成本控制

17、在1.4-1.5元/千瓦时（即15.0 - 16.5 cts/kWh）之间，已显示出比柴油动力峰值装机容量更大的竞争力。除此之外，通过范式转移，中国将在2020年将平准化能源成本降低至RMB0.65元/千瓦时(即0.07 cts/kWh，并于2030年将此成本降低至0.45元/千瓦时（即0.05 cts/kW）。”他进一步补充道：“到2020年，整个阳光地带光伏发电的竞争力将高于所有其他峰荷发电，而到2030年，光伏发电成本将低于所有其他常规发电技术成本。” “China can already reach an LCOE between RMB1.4 and RMB1.5 /kWh (15.

18、0 - 16.5 cts/kWh now, making it already more competitive than diesel powered peak power capacity. In addition, under the paradigm shift, China could reach RMB0.65/kWh (0.07 cts/kWh in 2020 and as low RMB0.45 /kWh (0.05 cts/kW by 2030”, explained Murray Cameron, Board Director of EPIA. “Across the Su

19、nbelt, already in 2020, PV will be more competitive than all peak load electricity generation while in 2030 all conventional power generation technologies will be more expensive compared to PV”, he further added 除了提供详细的经济分析以支持各种部署场景，此调研还就在“阳光地带”全面开发光伏产能提出一系列的建议。战略管理咨询公司科尔尼大中国区总裁Bernhard Hartmann评论说：

20、“建议亚洲地区政府和政策制定者认真考虑将光伏能源作为其能源战略和计划的一个明确部分。这还需要与各发展银行以及私人金融机构进行协作以加快光伏技术的使用，不但将其作为农村电气化来源，还将其作为主流能源来源来使用。” In addition to providing a detailed economic analysis supporting the various deployment scenarios, the study also highlights a series of recommendations to enable the full realisation of the pot

21、ential of PV in the Sunbelt. As commented by Bernhard Hartmann, Managing Director, Greater China of Strategic Management Consultancy firm, A.T. Kearney “governments and policy makers in Asia are advised to seriously consider PV as an explicit part of their energy strategy and planning. They should a

22、lso collaborate with development banks and private financial institutions to facilitate technology adoption of PV not only as a source for rural electrification, but as a mainstream source of energy. 请请点击此处here下载该调研。 Please click here to download the full study 编者按：我们联合战略咨询机构科尔尼公司（A. T. Kearney）完成了本

23、调研，其中还获得了农村电气化联盟（ARE）以及西班牙光伏产业协会（ASIF）的大力支持。 Editors note: This study was done in collaboration with the strategic management consultancy A.T. Kearney, and with the support of the Alliance for Rural Electrification (ARE and the Asociacin de la Industria Fotovoltaica (ASIF 关于 EPIA: 拥有整个太阳能光伏行业中超过 240

24、 名会员，EPIA 是世界上最大的光伏行业协会。 EPIA 的会员遍布业内价值链的每个环节：从硅、电池和模块生产到系统开发和光伏发电以及营销 与销售。EPIA 旨在通过整合光伏产业，推动提供独特而有价值的服务。 About EPIA: With over 240 Members drawn from across the entire solar photovoltaic (PV sector, the European Photovoltaic Industry Association is the worlds largest photovoltaic industry associati

25、on. EPIA Members are present throughout the whole value-chain: from silicon, cells and module production to systems development and PV electricity generation as well as marketing and sales. EPIAs mission is to deliver a distinct and valuable service driven from the strength of a single photovoltaic

26、voice. EPIA:中国等阳光地带国 光伏发展潜力巨大发布人：editor 来源：点击：139次发布时间：2011-02-25 10:32:53欧洲光伏产业协会（EPIA）董事会主席Murray Cameron博士，在本届SNEC国际太阳能产业及光伏工程展览会暨论坛上，发布调研报告释放阳光地带国家光伏潜力，该报告以中国和印度为例证，分析认为位于阳光地带（赤道南北纬35度之间）的多个国家光伏产业发展潜力巨大。这些地区虽然拥有丰富的太阳能辐射资源，但目前光伏发电装机量仅占全球的9%，因此拥有极大提升空间。一，阳光地带的电力需求增长却远大于非阳光地带国家成本与价格的剧减和一些关键市场的政策支持促

27、成了近年来光伏产业的迅猛增长，然而值得注意的是，增长最为迅速的却是意大利、西班牙等太阳能辐射相对较弱的地区。与此同时，阳光地带的电力需求增长却远大于非阳光地带国家。根据国际能源署发布的世界能源展望，在未来20年内，全球近80%的电力需求都将来自于阳光地带国家。 二，中国、印度、澳大利亚和墨西哥等国光伏能源吸引力和国家投资吸引力较高涉及到燃油价格补贴、服务于市场的能力有限、及能源公司的知识有限等多方面因素，目前在很多阳光地带国家全面实现地区光伏资源优势仍面临着许多障碍。图中显示了对66个国家基于国家整体投资吸引力和指定国家光伏能源吸引力2个变量的调查结果： 资料来源：美国宇航局(NASA，国际能

28、源署(IEA-技术发展分析，欧洲光伏产业协会(EPIA-2014年全球光伏市场展望，科尼尔咨询分析 分析结果显示多数阳光地带国家的光伏吸引力都很高。潜力最大的一组包含了几个全球主要经济体，即中国、印度、澳大利亚和墨西哥。第二和第三组主要由经济发展迅速的中型经济体组成，包括土耳其、阿根廷、南非、沙特阿拉伯、埃及和泰国。 三，三种模式下阳光地带光伏发展机遇比较资料来源：绿色和平组织太阳能报告，国际能源署(IEA-太阳能光伏技术发展分析，科尼尔咨询分析 （基础/加速发展情景分别基于其稳健/先进模式。非阳光地带国家范式转型中所用数据与加速发展情景相同。）在加速情景中，至2030年，阳光地带这些国家的光伏装机容量将达405 GW，届时能为近3亿人口提供稳定的电力供应，约占阳光地带总发电量的2.5% - 6%。在大胆的范式转型情景中，这些国家的光伏装机容量甚至可达1100 GW，也就是该地域发电总量的12%。 四，光伏系统的装机价格不断降低资料来源：可再生能源研究所(NREL，美国电子工业协会(EIA-2010年太阳能光伏技术发展分析，绿色和平组织太阳能报告，欧洲光伏产业协会(EPIA-2020展望，国际能源署(I