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1、浙江万里学院商学院毕业论文外文文献译文学生姓名 杨慧慧学生学号2010010896专业班级会计学专业，2010级4班指导教师彭海颖系 别会计系浙江万里学院商学院外文文献原文外文文献译文标题：财务困境和无法预期的现金流量资 料来源：/viewdoc/download?、doi=98.7963&rep=rep1 &type=pdf作者：J.道格拉斯汉纳本文探讨了金融危机的影响中包含的信息现金流和盈利的权责发生制组 合，而不是单纯的盈利。协会的测试（例如，鲍文，Burgstahler戴利1987, 雷伯恩1986

2、）提供现金流与权责发生制组件盈利是否混合证据是非常重要 的公司的证券估值。威尔逊1987和伯纳德和施特贝尔的1989采用短窗口事 件研究方法来研究这个关系。他们结果之间的关系是否有意想不到统计学上显 著的控制信息后的现金流和混合异常的股票回报率，包含在公布财报中。没有 发现任何重大的关联后，伯纳德和施特贝尔的假设可能是坚定宏观经济的特点。 目前研究探讨分区公司季度观测的人口之间的关系，以确定是否坚定的实施具 体措施，是否有受到意想不到的现金流量和异常回报财务困境。会计核算办法 采用独立变量。把无法预期的现金流确定作为实际的现金流和市场预期的现金 流之间的差异。使用标准的最小值乘市场的模型计算异

3、常报酬。威尔逊在他的 样本中发现现金流量预测的误差呈正相关，回归的方法解释报表，R2为2.9 %。 意想不到的现金流，这些结果是一致或超出盈利的则要公布所载的信息。意想不到的现金流量异常之间的关联提供的证据回报是对公司的财务困境 有影响的。奥尔森1980 年内使用违约概率模型计量财务困境。意想不到的 现金流量和异常之间的关系有利于增强企业的危机意识，表现出高识别金融危 机的水平。威尔逊1987提供股票价格反应释放意想不到的现金流是与公司的 财务报表变卖的证据有统计学意义。因为投资者的收益（现金流及应计费用总 和）盈利通过平时的财务报表公告发布，这发表表明不同价值，现金流和权责 发生制之间的盈利

4、.在一个虚拟的一般现金流超过应计费用的情况，伯纳德和对比施托贝尔 1989提供了两种选择表明现金流量和异常回报之间的意想不到的关系。首先,关系可能会受到公司具体的财务状况的影响。第二，宏观经济因素与不同的时 间段相关联的意义。威尔逊1987还建议，意外的现金流量和异常之间的关系 回报可能会有所不同，“在不同的企业”（第320页）。目前研究探讨现金流量和 异常关系来宣布公司的财务困境水平的效果是意想不到。与财务困境有关，通过现金流的违约风险一家公司将无法履行合约责任， 要求现金支付。该整个现金流和财务困境之间的关系已经在会计文献（例如， 海狸1966，海狸1968，海狸，凯特勒和斯科尔斯埃斯丘1

5、970 , 1979） 中建议。检查样本的企业，提供了一个有趣的测试意想不到的现金流量和异常 的机会，表现出高水平和金融窘迫之间的关系。会计研究人员发现，金融市场的反应释放的形式或季度财务报表信息的分 类盈利很少有证据一致的说法。然而，有相当多的证据支持的不同论点，即金 融市场的反应可以预见，以公开发布的财报公布。直观地看，这似乎不大可能， 在财报公布日期（通常只有当前和过去几个季度的盈利和收入）提供的信息， 可以有足够的统计数据，在每年（或每季度）的财务报告所包含的信息较为全 面。区和彭曼1989发现的证据表明，会计盈利以外的措施是用于预测未来的 回报。雷伯恩1986用现金流代理，纳入营运资

6、金变动帐目和年度数据，研究意 想不到的现金流量的信息内容。对现金流变量的异常报酬产生横截面回归结果 与异常报酬率之间的关联，都存在着意想不到的现金流量和意想不到的应计费 用。雷伯恩1986没有解决的问题是现金流增量中所包含的信息内容收益。然 而，现金流及应计费用的系数是相似的大小和显着性水平。使用替代现金流代理协会测试结果，这是与市场上的信息所使用的一致的 股价。结果是不确定投资者是否具有与现金价值不同的流量及应计费用。事件的研究可以提供公司的财务报表是否被用作证据体现现金流量信息。 布朗和华纳1985总结在事件研究中的方法论问题。我们的目标是研究反应金 融市场的信息释放。金融市场的反应是通过

7、一些股价变化测量在一个小的的事 件。该协会使用的事件窗口测试，威尔逊1987和伯纳德和施特贝尔1989检 查信息现金流量的内容。此前的研究一再表明，仍有部分应计费用（NA有小的增量信息含量（雷 伯恩1986，威尔逊1987，伯纳德和施托贝尔1989）。非流动性应计项目未 必令市场感到意外，因为他们可以准确地预测，或者是因为他们早日被释放到 市场上。不管是什么原因，但事实上，很少有非流动性应计项目的增量信息内 容意味着由方程（3）定义的盈利，信息内容如果非应计费用，NA事先知道。此外，如果盈利被称为非流动性应计项目，可以准确地预测，盈利分区的描述 方程（4）是等价的等式（2）分区。由于这些原因，

8、目前的研究探讨只有分区 由公式（2）给出的盈利。威尔逊1987相关股票异常收益的日期集中在为期九天的美国证券交易 委员会的年度报告中，体现现金流量预测误差。观察两个年终季度（1981年和1982年）。威尔逊仿照市场预期公司的横截面的方式，是使用目前的盈利和现 金流。会计核算办法作为独立变量，是无法预期现金流的，所以确定作为实际的现金流和市场预期的现金流之间的差异。使用标准的普通最小二乘市场的模型 计算异常报酬。伯纳德和施特贝尔1989研究早期威尔逊1987 结果的鲁棒性。作者试图 在可能的情况下，使用威尔逊的方法，并应用到一个新的更大的样本。为了便 于使用更大的样本，使用了不同的现金流代理。威

9、尔逊的数据的基础上，从每 个企业的现金流代理财务状况变动表（SCFP ）手动收集资料。伯纳德和施特 贝尔选择不使用数据SCFP而是创造了现金流措施 COMPUSTAT带上为他们的 资产负债表和利润表变量采样周期。使用新的和更大的样本在伯纳德和施特贝尔的1989 包括企业季度1977年至1984年的报告体现。在这段时间内，他们发现有170家公司所需的会计数 据的所有32 quarters.5 他们的研究结果表明，威尔逊的结果不能推广他们的 新样本。他们发现了由威尔逊发现的权责发生制的预测误差系数相同，但它没 有统计学意义（传统的a = 0.05水平）。金融市场是现金流量公布信息的一个重要来源，但

10、是有仍然没有得到解决 的问题，根据威尔逊1987和伯纳德和施特贝尔1989的研究，协会的测试表 明，这些测试不能确定市场是否得到其从现金流量信息释放的所载资料股票价 格和被扣押的现金流的报表。由于现金流的重要性，新的和不同的现金流量的 信息内容测试是适当的。一家公司的现金流和财务困境之间的关系有大部分的建议在现代会计文献 中有体现。现金流被认为是捕捉到的违约风险的概念，公司将无法履行合约责 任，因为他们看来，比弗1966坚定故障预测研究，第一组检查财务比率比现 金流动比率更有效。海狸研究其他比率，包括杠杆率和流动性比率，是受一家 公司的现金流影响。杠杆是反映债务的数额的标尺，由企业进行。大的债

11、务负 担是重要的，因为他们每个时期需要大量的，固定现金付款。流动性是重要的， 因为“库存”可用现金在现金净流出期间覆盖赤字。现金流也一直建议作为海 狸财务困境的措施1968，海狸，凯特勒斯科尔斯1970，和埃斯丘1979。最近的研究探讨了金融危机或金融风险的问题反直觉的结果。郎和麦克尼 科尔斯1990发现没有证据表明现金流处于财政困境中的企业更多的信息。弗 兰克尔1992债券评级，再次使用代理企业财政，发现现金流量之间的关系只 有微弱的证据和异常回报（股票和债券的异常报酬）企业的样本低于投资级的 债券评级。由于申请破产通常由于没有足够的现金来满足当前的现金义务，公司股东 用高违约概率来反应想不

12、到的现金流。具有高的公司违约概率的样本应加强观 察并且检查与意想不到的现金流量之间的关系和异常回报。4浙江万里学院商学院外文文献原文外文文献原文Title: Finan cial Distress and Un expected Cash-FlowsMaterialSource:/viewdoc/dow nl oad?doi=98.7963&rep=rep1 &type=pdfAuthor: J. Douglas Ha nna*This paper examines the effect of financi

13、al distress on the information contained in the cash-flow and accrual comp onents of earnin gs, as opposed to that of earnings alone. Association tests (e.g., Bowen, Burgstahler and Daley 1987, Rayburn 1986) provide mixed evidenee bout whether knowledge of the the cash-flow and accrual-components of

14、 arnings is important for valuing firms ' securities. Wils on 1987 and Bernard and Stober 1989 used short-wi ndow eve nt-study methodologies to exam ine this relatio nship. Their results are mixed with respect to whether the relati on ship betwee n un expected cash-flow and abno rmal stock retur

15、ns is statistically sig ni fica nt after con troll ing for the in formatio n contained in the earnings announcement. After not finding any significant associati on, Bernard and Stober hypothesize that the relati on ship may be con textual with respect to firm- specific or macroeconomic characteristi

16、cs. The current study examines partitions of the population of firm-quarter observations to determine whether the relati on ship betwee n un expected cash-flows and abno rmal retur ns is affected by a firm-specific measure of finan cial distress.Evide nee is provided that the associatio n betwee n u

17、n expected cash-flows and abnormal returns is affected by the firm ' level of financial distress. Financial distress is measured using the Ohls on 1980 model of probability of default within one year. The relati on ship betwee n un expected cash-flow and abno rmal return is stron ger for firms t

18、hat exhibit high levels of finan cial distress.Wils on 1987 provides evide nee of a statistically sig ni fica nt stock-price reaction to the release of firms 'financial statements that is associated with unexpected cash-flow realizations. Because earnings (the sum of cash-flows and accruals) are

19、 known to in vestors through the usual earnings announ ceme nt prior to the release of finan cial stateme nts, this finding suggests that cash-flow and accrual comp onents of earnings are valued differe ntly.In con trast to a hypothesized gen eral prefere nee for cash-flows over accruals, Bernard an

20、d Stober 1989 provide two alter native characterizati ons of the relati on ship betwee n un expected cash-flows and abno rmal retur ns. First, the relati on ship could be affected by highly con textual firm-specific finan cial situati ons. Second, macroec ono mic factors associated with differe nt t

21、ime periods could affect the sig nifica nee of the relati on ship. Wils on 1987 also suggested that the relati on ship betwee n un expected cash-flows and abno rmal returns could vary,“ across differe nt firms and years” (p. 320). The curre nt study exam ines the effect ofthe level of an announcing

22、firm ' financial distress upon the relationship between un expected cash-flows and abno rmal retur ns.Financial distress is related to cash-flow through the concept of default risk - the risk that a firm will not be able to meet contractual obligations requiring cash payme nts. The relati on shi

23、p betwee n cash-flows and finan cial distress has bee n suggested throughout the accounting literature (e.g., Beaver 1966, Beaver 1968, Beaver, Kettler and Scholes 1970, and Eskew 1979). Examining a sample of firms that exhibit high levels of financial distress provides an interesting and pote ntial

24、ly more powerful test of the relati on ship betwee n un expected cash-flows and abno rmal retur ns.Acco un ti ng researchers have found little evide nee con siste nt with the claim that the financial market reacts to the releaseof disaggregatedearnings information in the form ofannual or quarterly f

25、inan cial stateme nts. There is, however, con siderable evidence to support the contention that the financial market reacts predictably to publicly-released earningsannouncements. Intuitively, it seems unlikely that the information provided at the earnings announcement date (typically only earnings

26、and revenuesfor the current and past quarters) can be a sufficient statistic for the vast body of information contained in the annual (or quarterly) financial reports. Ou and Penman 1989 find evide nce that acco un ti ng measures other tha n earnings are useful for predict ing future retur ns.A simp

27、le decomposition of earnings has two components: cash-flows and accruals. If earnings are already known to the market whe n finan cial stateme nts are released,then disclosures in financial statementsthat identify either cash-flows or accruals are ide ntical in their in formatio n content. Once earn

28、ings and cash-flows are known, accruals can be determ in ed. Conv ersely, cash-flows can be determ ined from kno wledge of earnings and accruals. For this reas on, the terms in formati on conof accruals and 'in formationc on te ntof cash-flows 'are equivale nt. The curre nt study exam ines t

29、he in formatio n content, in creme ntal to that contained in the earnings announ ceme nt, of the announ ceme nt of the porti on of earnings that is made up of either cash-flows or accruals.Raybur n 1986 used a cash-flow proxy that in corporated cha nges in worki ng capital acco unts and annual data

30、to exam ine the in formatio n content of un expectedcash-flows.Cross-sectional regressions of abnormal returns against cash-flow variables yielded results consistent with the existence of an association between abno rmal retur ns and both un expected cash-flows and un expected accruals. Raybur n 198

31、6 did not address the questi on of whether or not cash-flows have in formatio n content in creme ntal to that contained in earnin gs. However, the coefficie nts on both cash-flows and accruals were similar in both magnitude and significance level.The results of associati on tests using alter native

32、cash-flow proxies in dicate that cash- flows are an acco un ti ng measure that is con siste nt with in formati on used by the market in the determ in atio n of share prices. The results are incon clusive as to whether inv estors value cash- flows and accruals differe ntly.Eve nt studies can provide

33、evide nce on whether firms' finan cial stateme nts areused as a source of cash-flow in formatio n to the market. Brow n and Warner 1985 summarize the methodological issues invo lved in eve nt studies. The objective is to exam ine the reacti on by the finan cial market to the release of in format

34、i on (the eve nt). The finan cial market reacti on is measured by some fun cti on of share-price cha nges duri ng a small wi ndow of time surro unding the eve nt (the eve nt wi ndow). Us ing eve nt-w in dows shorter tha n those used in the associati on tests, Wils on 1987 and Bernard and Stober 1989

35、 exam ine the in formati on content of cash-flows.Stober 1989). Noncurrent accruals may not be a surprise to the market either because they can be accurately forecasted or because they are released to the market at an early date. Whatever the reason,the fact that noncurrent accruals have little in c

36、reme ntal in formatio n content implies that the earnings defi ned by equati on (3) has no surprise information content if noncurrent accruals, NA, are known in advance. Also, if earnings are known and noncurrent accruals can be accurately forecasted, the earnings partiti on described by equatio n (

37、4) is equivale nt to the equation (2) partition. For these reasons, the current study examines only the partition of earnings given by equation (2).Wils on 1987 related abno rmal stock-returns in a nin e-day win dow cen tered on the date that the annual report arrived at the SEC to cash-flow forecas

38、t errors. Observati ons were take n from two year-e nd quarters (1981 and 1982). Wils on modeled the market expectation. of firms cash-flows in a cross-sectional manner using curre nt earnings and lagged acco un ti ng measuresas in depe ndent variables. Un expected cash-flows were the n determ ined

39、as the differe nce betwee n actual cash-flows and the market expectation of cash-flows. Abnormal returns were calculated using the sta ndard ordinary least squares market model.In his sample, Wils on found that cash-flow forecast errors were positively correlated with abnormal returns around financi

40、al statements release dates. The with unexpected cash-flows conveying information beyond that contained in the earnings announ ceme nt.regressi ons expla napower, R2, was 2.9 percent.4 These results are consistentBernard and Stober 1989 examined the robustness of the earlier Wilson 1987 result.The a

41、uthors attempted, where possible, to use Wils on ' methods and apply them to a new and larger sample. To facilitate using the larger sample, the authors used a differe nt cashflow proxy tha n did Wils on. Wils on ' csashrflow proxy was based on data taken from each firm ' Siatement of Ch

42、anges in Financial Position (SCFP) and was manually collected. Bernard and Stober chose not to use data from the SCFP an d, i nstead, created a cash-flow measure using Bala nce Sheet and In come Stateme nt variables available on the Compustat tape for their sample period.The new and larger sample us

43、ed in Bernard and Stober 1989 in cluded firms quarterly reports from 1977 to 1984. In this time frame, they found 170 firms which had the required accounting data for all 32 quarters.5 Their findings suggested that Wils on ' s result could not be gen eralized to their new sample. The coefficie n

44、t they found for accrual forecast errors was of the same sig n as that found by Wils on; however, it was not statistically sig nifica nt (at the traditi onala = .05 level)Whether or not cash-flow announcements are an important source of information to the financial market is a question that remains

45、unresolved after theWils on 1987 and Bernard and Stober 1989 studies. While association tests suggest that the information contained in cash-flows is impounded in stock prices, these tests cannot ascerta in whether the market gets its cash-flow in formatio n from the release of finan cial stateme nt

46、s.Give n the perceived importa nce of cash-flows, new and differe nt tests of the in formatio n content of cash-flows are appropriate.A relation betweena firm 'cashflows and financial distress is suggestedin much of the modern accounting literature. Cash-flow is thought to capture the concept of default risk -the risk that a firm will not be able to meet contractual obligations as they come due. In Beaver' 9966 study of firm -failure prediction, the first group of financial ratios examined was cash- flow ratios. Other ratios examine