迪拜房价连续下跌概要

1、迪拜房价连续下跌Property in Dubai has fallen in price for seven consecutive quarters. Prime prices in July were 10 per cent below levels from two years ago. In the second quarter of this year, home sales slumped almost a third on the previous year. The Gulf city-states recent travails would have most high-e

2、nd estate agents crying into their champagne cocktails.迪拜的房产价格已经连续七个季度下跌了。今年7月份的高端住宅价格与两年前相比下降了10%。今年第二季度的住宅销量则较上年同期猛跌了约三分之一。这座海湾城邦型国家近期经历的阵痛应该会让绝大多数高端地产经纪人哭晕在他们的香槟鸡尾酒里。David Godchaux, who runs local agent Core, source of the sales figures, is having none of it. “Over the past 18 months, the market

3、has lost between 6 per cent and 15 per cent, depending where you look,” he says. “But this is Dubais first really healthy correction.”但大卫.戈德肖(David Godchaux)并不感到悲观。他经营着迪拜本地经纪公司Core，该公司主要提供房产销售数据。“在过去的十八个月中，迪拜房地产市场的跌幅在6%至15%之间，这取决于你所关注的方面。但这是迪拜房市首次真正意义上的健康调整。”His point is that Dubai has seen much wor

4、se. In the wake of the financial crisis, following a furious speculative boom, property prices slumped, losing 40 per cent in the first three months of 2009 alone, according to the agency Knight Frank. By November that year, helped by huge losses at Nakheel, its property division, the government-own

5、ed investment vehicle Dubai World announced it would delay repayment on $59bn of debts, raising the spectre of the largest sovereign default since that of Argentina in 2001.在他看来，迪拜经历过远比这更糟的情况。在金融危机爆发初期，迪拜房产价格大幅下挫，来自房地产经纪公司莱坊(Knight Frank)的数据显示，仅2009年头三个月内的跌幅就达到了40%，而在此之前迪拜刚经历了一轮汹涌的地产投机热潮。到了2009年11月，

6、迪拜国有投资公司迪拜世界(Dubai World)宣布将延期偿还590亿美元的债务，受旗下房地产分支Nakheel的大规模损失影响，这是自2001年阿根廷事件以来规模最大的主权债违约。Indebted property owners, who had bought multiple properties with wafer-thin deposits, fled the country, fearing jail for missed mortgage repayments. Newspaper articles carried pictures of abandoned supercars

7、 at Dubai airport.负债累累的房产所有者他们靠着像威化饼干一样薄弱的储蓄基础购买了多套房产纷纷逃离迪拜，因为担心无法按期偿还抵押贷款会导致他们被投入监狱。新闻报道中常有超级跑车被遗弃在迪拜机场的图片。By contrast, the recent price falls feel benign. To Godchaux, they demonstrate an economy that is more diversified, a mortgage industry that has learnt its lesson a 25 per cent minimum deposit

8、, increasing for second and more expensive homes, has been introduced and a banking industry that is better regulated. “Buyers havent all left at the same time. Fewer of them are speculators, and those that are have deeper pockets,” he says.与之形成对比的是，近期房价下跌给人的感觉较为良性。在戈德肖看来，这些现象表明，迪拜作为一个经济体已变得更加多元化，抵押

9、贷款行业也已吸取了经验教训引入了25%的首付比例要求，该比例在个人购买下一套或者更加昂贵的住宅时还会进一步上浮对银行业的监管也有所加强。“买家们并未全部同时离场。买家中的投机者变少了，而且如今的投机者也拥有更强的资金实力。”他表示。Dubai may have weathered this price fall better than the last, and it may be one of the worlds top five cities for individuals with a net worth of more than $30m, according to Knight F

10、ranks 2016 survey of the super-rich. Yet the lesson of the parlous performance of Dubai property since 2014 is that this is very much an emerging market, at the whim of outside influences that drive global capital flows.迪拜或许能比上一次更好地应对此轮房价下跌，据莱坊2016年的超级富豪调查显示，迪拜或许是净资产超过3000万美元的个人在全球范围内最青睐的五座城市之一。迪拜房地

11、产市场自2014年以来的危险走势所带来的启示是，这在很大程度上仍是一个新兴市场，受制于驱使全球资本流动的外部影响。“The real estate sector, in particular, depends on a number of global and regional fundamentals,” says Maria Morris, who runs Knight Franks Dubai prime business.负责管理莱坊在迪拜高端住宅业务的玛利亚.莫里斯(Maria Morris)表示：“房地产行业尤其取决于全球和地区范围内的一系列基本面因素。”A sudden sel

12、l-off by Russian investors, following sanctions imposed early in 2014 by the EU and the US, was one factor behind the price falls this time, say agents. The recent strengthening of the dollar, to which the UAE dirham is pegged, was another. To foreign buyers, property looked pricey. To foreign owner

13、s, it looked like time to cut losses.地产经纪们表示，在2014年初欧盟和美国对俄罗斯实施制裁之后，俄罗斯投资者突如其来的抛售潮是导致此次房价下跌的因素之一。近期美元汇率走强则是另一个原因阿联酋货币迪拉姆实行相对于美元的盯住汇率制度。对于外国买家来说，迪拜房产的价格看起来很贵，而对外国的住宅所有者而言，这似乎是止损的好时机。Dubais sensitivity to countries beyond its shores extends to the workers its economy relies on. Fewer than 12 per cent

14、of those who live in the UAE are citizens, according to the UN. The majority of non-citizens work in low-paid jobs, and are a group the government is increasingly keen to cater for in order to combat the risk of their sudden departure. Half of UAE expats polled by YouGov last year said they would co

15、nsider leaving because of the high cost of living. Efforts to provide affordable housing which include a proposal for new residential projects to contain a mandatory quota of low-cost homes may struggle, say agents.迪拜对其他国家的敏感性还进一步表现在它的经济对外来劳工的依赖上。来自联合国(UN)的数据显示，在阿联酋的常住人口中，只有不到12%的人为本国公民，而非公民中的绝大部分人都

16、在从事低薪工作。阿联酋政府正在越来越重视迎合这一群体的需要，以防范他们突然离去的风险。去年YouGov调查了阿联酋外籍人士，半数受访者表示他们会考虑离开，因为阿联酋的生活成本高昂。地产经纪人表示，政府正努力提供经济适用住房，比如，政府推出了一个要求新建住宅项目必须包含某一强制比率的低成本住宅的提案，但这个提案或许会遇到很大阻力。With a 25 per cent deposit required and buying costs of 6.5 per cent, according to Savills, buyers must raise almost a third of the val

17、ue of a new home. Even the cheapest of these under the proposed quota system will cost about Dh500,000 ($136,000), says Godchaux. “Most will struggle to save what they need for these homes, even if they save for 10 years,” he says. In addition, most local mortgage lenders require incomes of at least

18、 Dh15,000 to Dh20,000 a month before granting mortgages, he adds. Lower-paid workers might get Dh10,000 per month, perhaps less.第一太平戴维斯(Savills)表示，因有25%的首付要求，以及6.5%的购房费用，买家们在购房时必须预先筹得约占新房价三分之一的资金。戈德肖表示，按照目前提出的比例要求，即便购买最便宜的房产也要花费约50万迪拉姆（合13.6万美元）。“绝大多数人为了支付购买这些住宅所需的金额将会拼命存钱，即便他们需要存上十年。”除此之外，绝大多数迪拜本地的

19、抵押贷款商要求贷款人的月收入至少达到1.5万至2万迪拉姆才会批准贷款，戈德肖补充说。而低收入工人的月收入或许只有1万迪拉姆，甚至可能更少。For affluent buyers from abroad, who dominate Dubais prime market, there is no problem of affordability. Average prime prices are 60 per cent lower than average prime New York homes; 75 per cent cheaper per sq ft than prime London;

20、 and 85 per cent less than top-end prices in Hong Kong, according to Core.对于来自国外的富有买家来说这一群体主宰了迪拜的高端住房市场偿付能力不成问题。来自经纪公司Core的数据显示，迪拜高端住宅的平均价格比纽约高端住宅的平均价格低了60%；与伦敦高端住宅每平方英尺的价格相比便宜了75%；与香港顶级住宅的价格相比则便宜了85%。Savills is selling a five-bedroom house with a pool in Arabian Ranches, south of Downtown, for Dh6.

21、2m ($1.68m), roughly what you would pay for a two-bedroom flat in a good spot in New York, London or Hong Kong. For buyers who want something a little plusher, the same agent has a large house with lake views and parking for six cars in Emirates Hills, for just under Dh22m ($6m).第一太平戴维斯正在出售一栋带有游泳池的五

22、卧室住宅，该住宅位于迪拜市中心以南的阿拉伯牧场(Arabian Ranches)，售价620万迪拉姆（合168万美元），这差不多是在纽约、伦敦或香港的优质地段购买一套两卧室公寓的价钱。对于品味更加奢华的买家来说，第一太平戴维斯还有一套位于酋长山庄(Emirates Hills)住宅区的豪宅可供选购，该豪宅可观湖景，拥有六个停车位，售价不到2200万迪拉姆（合600万美元）。Recent price drops have meant bargains for even the best stock. At Palm Jumeirah the distinctive, palm-shaped ar

23、tificial archipelago completed in 2009 prices of apartments dropped 7 per cent year on year in June. Downtown, prices have fallen off 12 per cent, according to Core. In the downtown Burj Khalifa building, the tallest in the world, Knight Frank has a four-bedroom apartment for sale for Dh70m ($19m).近

24、期的房价跌势意味着即便是最优质的存量住宅现在也在降价出售。在朱美拉棕榈岛(Palm Jumeirah)这座独一无二、棕榈叶形状的人工群岛于2009年完工今年6月的公寓价格较上年同期下跌了7%。而来自Core的数据显示，迪拜市中心的房价已经下跌了12%。在市中心的哈利法塔(BurjKhalifa)这是目前全球第一高建筑莱坊正在以7000万迪拉姆（合1900万美元）的价格出售一套四卧室公寓。However, strong underlying rental demand has kept prices from dropping further in the flagship developmen

25、ts, say agents, and the growing rental yields occasioned by falling capital values could yet provide the silver lining to Dubais current property cloud. Research by Savills puts the average 2016 yields for Dubai homes a shade under 4.5 per cent. At the best units this can reach 6 per cent, with occu

26、pancy levels close to 90 per cent, says Core.但地产经纪们表示，强劲的潜在租房需求使得旗舰房地产开发项目的房价免于进一步下跌，而由固定资本价值下降引起的租赁收益率上升或许会给目前乌云笼罩的迪拜地产市场带来一线曙光。据第一太平戴维斯的研究估算，2016年迪拜住宅的平均租金收益率或略低于4.5%。Core则表示，对于最好的房源来说，租金收益率可以达到6%，而且入住率接近于90%。Buying guide购房指南 All buyers pay a 4 per cent transfer fee; those from abroad are restrict

27、ed to freehold purchases 所有买家须支付4%的转让费；来自海外的买家仅限于购买可终身保有的不动产 An average prime home costs $2.1m 高端住宅的平均价格为210万美元 The city-state of Dubai is the most populous of the seven emirates that comprise the United Arab Emirates 迪拜作为一个城邦型国家，是组成阿联酋的七个酋长国中人口最多的那一个What you can buy for.你能买到什么样的房子.$1m A three-bedro

28、om apartment in City Walk, a new-build development in the Jumeirah area with pool, gym and porter 花100万美元可以在City Walk买一套带三个卧室的公寓，这是朱美拉(Jumeirah)地区新建的一个带游泳池、健身房以及门童服务的房地产开发项目。$2m A four-bedroom house with a pool close to the beach on Palm Jumeirah 花200万美元可以在靠近朱美拉棕榈岛沙滩的地方买一栋带有四个卧室的住宅$3.5m A seven-bedr

29、oom house in Emirates Hills, with staff quarters 花350万美元可以在酋长山庄住宅区买一栋带佣人房的七卧室住宅。韩国总统朴槿惠因闺蜜门曝出而压力剧增Over the past week pressure has been mounting on South Korean President Park Geun-hye, who has been suspected of letting her longtime friend to intervene in state affairs.在过去一个礼拜里，韩国总统朴槿惠的压力剧增，她被怀疑让自己的闺

30、蜜插手国事。Park's approval rating has fallen to 17 percent, the lowest since her inauguration in 2013, from 25 percent a week ago, according to a pollster survey by Gallup Korea.据韩国盖洛普的一项民意调查显示，朴槿惠的支持率从上周的25%下降到了17%，为2013年上任以来最低。The scandal involves Park's longtime confidante Choi Soon-sil, who i

31、s without any official title in public office.本次丑闻涉及到了朴槿惠的闺蜜崔顺实，她没有任何公职。韩国总统朴槿惠因闺蜜门曝出而压力剧增Hankyoreh newspaper reported that Choi meddled in government affairs, including Seoul's decision to shut down the Kaesong industrial complex in the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.据韩民族日报报道，崔顺实涉嫌干涉

32、政府事务，其中就包括首尔方面关闭朝鲜民主主义人民共和国开城工业园的决议。According to local media reports, Choi also meddled in the appointment of ministers and the editing of presidential speeches.据当地媒体报道，崔顺实还干涉部长提拔以及总统演讲的编辑。Supporters of Park were outraged even though the country's first female president made a public apology las

33、t Tuesday to admit Choi's involvement in the editing of her speeches only during an initial period of her presidency.即使韩国的这位首任女总统于上周二承认崔顺实参与了她上任之初时的演讲编辑，并做出了公开道歉，但是支持朴槿惠的人士仍旧十分生气。According to the Gallup Korea survey, 80 percent of respondents believed the scandal was true while only 6 percent ha

34、d doubts.据韩国盖洛普调查显示，80%的受访者相信这一丑闻是真的，而只有6%的人对此持怀疑态度。小熊维尼仍是中国家长及儿童的最爱It is hard to track when Winnie-the-Pooh was introduced to China. But one thing for sure is that the cute yellow teddy bear is widely loved by Chinese, from children to adults.动画片小熊维尼在中国播出已经是很久之前的事情了，但可以确定的是，这只憨态可掬的泰迪熊在中国一直拥有超高人气，从孩

35、子到成人，老少皆宜。Many find the stories of Winnie and his friends to be educational and inspiring.很多人发现小熊维尼和他的朋友们的故事不仅具有教育意义，还能启发灵感。Huang Fangfang, mother of a 5-year-old girl nicknamed Hu Lu, knows Winnie well and read stories of the famed bear to her daughter when she was very young.作为5岁女儿小葫芦的妈妈，黄芳芳女士也非常喜

36、欢小熊维尼的故事，在女儿小的时候还经常讲给女儿听。"I love Piglet most," Hu Lu said after counting all the characters. "Piglet, Piglet," she said, chanting the name of the small pink pig who is Winnie's friend.葫芦一边喊着动画片中小熊维尼的朋友、一只小粉猪的名字，一边说道：“我最喜欢里面的那只小猪皮杰，皮杰！皮杰！”Although still at preschool, Hu Lu has

37、 watched Winnie-the-Pooh cartoons and read many of the books in both Chinese and English.虽然葫芦才上幼儿园，但她已经看过这部动画片很多次，还阅读了很多中英双语版本的书。长盛不衰!动画片小熊维尼仍是中国家长及儿童的最爱Back in the 1920s, when A.A. Milne saw a teddy bear among his son's toys, he came up with an idea to portray a series of cartoon characters liv

38、ing in a forest.时间追溯至20世纪20年代，艾伦·亚历山大·米恩不经意间在儿子的一堆玩具中看到了一只泰迪熊，后来便由此创造了一系列和其相关的生活在森林中的卡通人物形象。Winnie-the-Pooh, named after a Canadian black bear in London Zoo, made his debut on Dec 24, 1925, in a Christmas story commissioned and published by the London newspaper The Evening News.小熊维尼的名字来源于伦

39、敦动物园的一只加拿大黑熊。1925年12月24日，小熊维尼的故事第一次登上伦敦晚报，在当时大受欢迎。In October 1926, the first collection of this bear as well as his friends became available to the public.1926年10月，系列故事小熊维尼和他的朋友们便正式出版，出现在大众视野中。In the series, Winnie-the-Pooh and his friends Piglet, Eeyore, Kanga, Roo, Tigger, Owl and Rabbit, live in

40、Ashdown Forest in Sussex, England. The stories are mostly about their daily lives and adventures.在这个故事中，小熊维尼和他的朋友们-皮杰、屹耳、袋鼠妈妈、袋鼠宝宝、跳跳虎、猫头鹰和兔子瑞比住在英格兰苏塞克斯的亚士顿森林里，每天他们生活的地方都会发生新鲜有趣的事情。The Winnie-the-Pooh series has won the hearts of Chinese parents, who have found it to be ideal reading material for th

41、eir children.小熊维尼的故事深受中国的家长喜欢，他们都将其当做孩子最佳的启蒙读物。"The contents are suitable for children. The stories are warm and touching, as well as educational," Huang said.黄女士表示：“这个故事特别适合孩子看，有些情节既温暖又感动人心，还特别有教育意义。”"The language is plain, but the stories are more than just simple. Winnie and his bu

42、ddies often show kids how to make friends, encourage them to think and act, and even relate some philosophies that will benefit them for a lifetime."“里面的语言特别好懂，但是故事本身没有那么浅显。比如说维尼和他的伙伴们会教给孩子如何交朋友，鼓励他们如何去思考、去做人，这些道理会让他们受益终生。”从肯尼迪到特朗普 美国全球战略的危险转变It is symbolic and poignant that the election of Don

43、ald Trump was confirmed on the morning of November 9, 27 years to the day after the fall of the Berlin Wall.唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)在11月9日早上被确认当选美国总统，这具有令人伤感的象征意义27年前的这一天，柏林墙倒塌。That was a moment of triumph for US leadership and ushered in a period of optimism and expansion for liberal and democratic id

44、eas around the world.那是一个美国领导力胜利的时刻，还开启了一段令人乐观、自由和民主思想在世界各地传播的时期。That era has been definitively ended by Mr Trumps victory.那个时期无疑随着特朗普的胜选而终结。The electoral triumph of a race-baiting demagogue represents a profound blow to the prestige of US democracy and thus to the cause of democracy around the worl

45、d, which America has championed, on and off, since 1945.一个打种族牌的煽动者赢得大选，代表着对美国民主体制威望的沉重打击，也是对世界各地民主事业的沉重打击美国自1945年以来断断续续地捍卫着民主事业。The most eloquent and moving statement of that American commitment was made by John F Kennedy in 1961 Let every nation know, whether it wishes us well or ill, that we shall

46、 pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, to assure the survival and the success of liberty.美国作出的最精辟也最令人感动的承诺是约翰.肯尼迪(John F Kennedy)在1961年所说的：让每个国家都知道不论它希望我们繁荣还是希望我们衰落为确保自由的存在和自由的胜利，我们将付出任何代价，承受任何负担，应付任何艰难，支持任何朋友，反抗任何敌人。The generosity, breadth and eloque

47、nce of Kennedys vision makes a sad contrast with the pinched nationalism of Mr Trumps proclamation that Our plan will put America first.肯尼迪愿景的大气、广度和雄辩与特朗普那种小家子气的民族主义宣告构成了令人悲哀的对比我们的计划将首先考虑美国。Americanism not globalism will be our credo.美国主义而非全球主义将是我们的信条。The difference between these two visions is prof

48、ound and ominous.这两种愿景之间的差异是深远和不祥的。It was not just idealism that led Americas postwar generation to commit to the protection of liberty around the world.促使美国战后一代人承诺保护世界各地自由民主的，并不只是理想主义。As Kennedy observed, his generation was tempered by war, disciplined by a hard and bitter peace.正如肯尼迪所指出的，他们这代人在战争中

49、受过锻炼，在艰难困苦的和平时期受过陶冶。They make a stark contrast with the generation who have voted for Mr Trump fattened by fast food and infantilised by reality television.他们与当今这一代把特朗普选上台的美国人（因吃多了快餐食品而变得肥胖，因看多了真人秀节目而变得幼稚）不可同日而语。The Kennedy generation had learnt bitter lessons from the Great Depression and the secon

50、d world war.肯尼迪那代人从大萧条(Great Depression)和二战汲取了惨痛的教训。They knew that America First policies those that sought to isolate the US from the problems of the wider world had ultimately led to economic and political catastrophe.他们知道，美国优先政策那些寻求让美国对外部世界的问题不理不问的政策最终导致经济和政治灾难。So after 1945, a new generation of

51、US leaders, both Republicans and Democrats, built an economic and security architecture for the world based around US leadership and international institutions and alliances, such as Nato, the UN and the World Bank.因此在1945年之后，美国新一代领导人（无论是共和党还是民主党人）为世界打造了一套经济和安全架构，其基础是美国的领导力以及国际机构和联盟，如北约(Nato)、联合国和世界

52、银行(World Bank)。Mr Trump has forgotten these lessons drawn from the experience of the 1930s, if he ever knew them.特朗普忘记了从上世纪30年代汲取的这些教训如果他曾经明白过这些教训的话。He appears to have even more contempt for international bodies than for the institutions of America itself.在他眼里，国际机构似乎比美国自己的机构更值得蔑视。His proposed polici

53、es threaten to take an axe to the liberal world order that the US has supported and sustained for many decades.他拟议的政策可能砍掉美国几十年来支持和捍卫的自由主义世界秩序。In particular, he has challenged two of the main bipartisan principles that underpin Americas approach to the world.尤其是，他挑战了支撑美国对外政策的两大跨党派原则：The first is supp

54、ort for an open, international trading system.一是支持一个开放的国际贸易体系；The second is the commitment to the US-led alliances that underpin global security.二是承诺维护以美国为首的联盟以支撑全球安全。Mr Trump is the first avowed protectionist to be elected US president since before the second world war.特朗普是自二战之前以来首个当选美国总统的公开的保护主义者。

55、He has promised to renegotiate Americas terrible trade deals, such as the North American Free Trade Agreement, and threatened to pull the US out of the World Trade Organisation.他承诺重新谈判美国糟糕的贸易协定，比如北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)，并威胁让美国退出世贸组织(WTO)。He has also mooted tariffs as high as 45 per cent on Chinese goods.他还提

56、议对中国输美商品征收高达45%的关税。If Mr Trump were to follow through on these threats, he would spark a global trade war and could well plunge the world into recession similar to the depression of the 1930s, which was greatly deepened by Americas embrace of protectionism.如果特朗普真的兑现这些威胁，他将引发全球贸易战，很可能让世界陷入衰退，类似于上世纪30

57、年代的大萧条，那场萧条因美国采取保护主义而严重加剧。特朗普开启政治即兴秀时代As the election count was under way on Tuesday night, I visited the two places in New York where Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump planned to hold their victory parties.周二晚上美国大选还在计票时，我在纽约市走访了两个地方，就是希拉里.克林顿(Hillary Clinton)和唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)各自计划举行庆功聚会的所在，前者是在拥

58、有巨幅玻璃的贾维茨会议中心(Javits Center)，后者在希尔顿酒店(Hilton Hotel)。The locations at the cavernous glass Javits Center for Clinton and Hilton Hotel for Trump are barely a mile apart, but they were a revealing study in cultural contrasts.两个活动地点相隔不过一英里，但完全可以把它们当作一项具有启发意义的文化比较研究的对象。The Clinton event was organised with a slick hyper-efficiency.希拉里那边的活动组织得老练高效，