美国化肥市场发展历程及生产、流通、消费现状

1、美国化肥市场发展历程及生产、流通、消费现状Today and Yesterday of US Fertilizer Market in Consumption, Distribution and Production2007中国化肥市场高峰论坛2007 China Fertilizer Market Summit7月26日-27日July 26 - 27中国，西安Xian, China詹姆士.麦克莱恩 教授 GdP合伙人JAMES MCCLAIN Professor and PartnerGlobal Development Partners (GdP)Table of Contents 演讲

2、大纲I.Introduction 化肥使用介绍II.Consumption and Trends化肥消费趋势III.Points of Interest关注焦点IV.Production生产V.Channels流通渠道VI.Profiles In A Mature Industry成熟期化肥工业的概貌VII.Summary总结Introduction化肥使用介绍Required Nutrients植物需要的养分植物所需的养分Required Plant Nutrientso16种植物所需的养分 There are 16 required plant nutrientso分为三类Divided

3、into 3 categories:n主要元素-三种Primary threen次要元素-三种Secondary threen微量元素-十种Micronutrients - ten主要的和次要的营养元素Primary and Secondary Nutrientso主要元素Primary:n氮Nitrogenn磷Phosphorusn钾Potassiumo次要元素Secondaryn钙Calciumn镁Magnesiumn硫磺Sulfur (sulfur)微量营养素Micronutrientsn硼Boronn氯Chlorinen铜Coppern铁Ironn锰Manganesen钼Molybde

4、numn锌Zincn碳Carbonn氢Hydrogenn氧Oxygen主要用法Majority Usageo在北美，这三种主要的植物营养成分(氮,磷,钾) 占化肥消耗量的95%. 这种趋势已持续50年。 The three primary plant nutrients (N, P, and K) comprise 95% of all fertilizers consumed in North America. This trend has been steady for 50 years.o然而,次要元素和微量元素,对农作物的质量和单位面积的产量具有很重要的意义. However, the

5、 secondary and micronutrients are important to healthy crops and yield per acre.Introduction化肥使用介绍Required Nutrients植物需要的养分全球氮、磷、钾的消费量分析Consumption of N + P2O5 + K2O百万吨/百分比Millions of Tones and Percentages (1)年 北美 全球 东亚 发达国家 发展中国家Yr. North/Am. World East-Asia Developed Developing61 7.44(24.8) 30.03

6、1.05(3.5) 26.15(87.1) 3.88(12.9)71 16.37(23.6) 69.13 4.51(6.5) 55.37(80.0) 13.57(20.0)81 23.43(20.0) 117.20 16.19(13.8) 78.17(66.7) 39.03(33.3)91 20.66(14.9) 138.24 26.33(19.0) 81.05(58.6) 62.34(41.3)01 21.34(15.7) 135.56 36.99(27.3) 51.27(37.8) 84.29(62.2)06 21.33(13.8) 154.07 47.34(30.7) 46.67(30.

7、3) 107.4(69.7)North. America and East-Asia Fertilizer ConsumptionPercent of WorldDeveloped and Developing NationsFertilizer ConsumptionPercent of WorldPoints of Interest消费关注焦点美国农作物和化肥价格指数US Crop and Fertilizer Price Indiceso从1975年到2005年农民的肥料成本倍增，农作物销售价格只上涨了29%。 From 1975 to 2005 farmer fertilizer co

8、sts doubled and crop prices received increased by 29%. o从1975年至2005年化肥生产商价格指数From 1975 to 2005 Fertilizer Producer Price Indices:n全部肥料增涨90% All fertilizer +90%n氮肥增涨100% Nitrogen +100%n磷肥增涨58% Phosphate +58%关注点Points of Interesto北美有两次使用量达到2300万吨,一次是1981年,另一次是2003年达到2389万吨 ,这是历史最高水平. North America has

9、 used 23 million tons twice, in 1981 and again in 2003 at 23.89, the highest level.o1961年发达国家(占世界用量87%)主要植物养分的用量是发展中国家的6.75倍. In 1961 the Developed Countries (87% of world usage) used 6.75 times the primary plant nutrients as the Developing World. o2006年发展中国家(占世界用量70%)主要植物养分的用量是发达国家的2.3倍. In 2006 th

10、e Developing Countries (70% of world usage) used 2.3 times the primary plant nutrients as the Developed World.北美及世界化肥发展趋势North American and World Fertilizer Trendso从1961年到1981年北美肥料的使用量增涨三倍. From 1961 to 1981 North American fertilizer usage tripled.o自1981年以来,北美肥料用量已经稳定，介于低点18.56万吨( 1983年) 和高点2389.0万吨

11、( 2004年) 之间. Since 1981, North American fertilizer usage has been stable, ranging between a high of 23.89 million tons (2004) to a low of 18.56 million tons (1983). Production生产氮肥趋势Nitrogen Trends2007年，由于美国天然气成本变化，美国有45%的氮肥来自进口。在美国大部分的氮肥生产主要靠天然气。 In 2007, due to the cost of US natural gas, the US is

12、 importing 45% of its Nitrogen needs. Most Nitrogen production in the US is sourced from natural gas.在中国75%的氮肥生产是使用煤，只有25%使用石油和天然气. In China 75% of Nitrogen production is from coal and only 25% from oil and natural gas.氮肥趋势Nitrogen Trendso在北美氨的产能自2003年下降了21%.在未来它将保持现在这个水平. Ammonia production capacit

13、y in the North America is down 21% from 2003. It is projected to remain at this level for the foreseeable future.o尿素下降18%. Urea is down 18%. o2002年美国有四个尿素工厂 In 2002, there were 4 Urea plants in USA.美国化肥生产趋势Trends In US Fertilizer Production o陶氏化学公司和杜邦公司已不再生产化肥Dow Chemical and DuPont are no longer in

14、 fertilizer production.o在过去的五年里，美国的化肥生产已经很少盈利. For the last five years, there has been little profitability in US fertilizer production.o中国正在大量出口氮肥到美国. China is exporting significant amounts of Nitrogen to the US.Channels分销渠道美国化肥的分销渠道US Fertilizer Channelso美国的化肥一散装运输为主，而中国的化肥大部分是袋装运输. US fertilizer

15、producers ship in bulk; in China most fertilizer is shipped in bags. o美国是机械化施肥，而中国是手工施肥. US applies fertilizer mechanically. China applies fertilizer manually (by hand).美国化肥的分销渠道US Fertilizer Channelso化肥运输很少是从生产厂家直接运输给农民Very little fertilizer is shipped direct to farmers from manufacturers.o生产厂家运给混合

16、站和大的批发商. Manufacturers ship to mixers and large wholesalers.o批发商转运给地区经销商. Wholesalers ship to local dealers. 美国化肥的分销渠道US Fertilizer Channelso经销商熟悉当地的农作物、土壤、气候和农场客户的具体需求. Dealers know the local crops, soil, climate and hence the needs of their farmer-customers.o大型的化肥生产企业对地方农民/种植者的需求不敏感. Large fertili

17、zer manufactures are not that sensitive to local farmer/grower needs. 美国化肥的分销渠道US Fertilizer Channelso化肥生产设施建立在有自然资源的地方,但是距离客户就会远一些. 因此,我们需要有一个敏感的分销渠道. Fertilizer manufacturing facilities are near natural resource deposits, which are at a distance from customers. Hence, the need for a sensitive dist

18、ribution channel.o一些生产厂商有自己的混合站或分销网络. Some manufacturers own mixing or distribution networks.Profiles In A Mature Industry成熟期化肥工业的概貌美国化肥工业企业数量变化表USA Companies in the Industry(2) 主生产商 混合站 其他农业化学和养分企业 Primary Mixing Ag. Chem. & NutrientsYr. Firms Loc. $Mil Firms Loc. $Mil Firms Loc. $Mil年 企业数 地点 产

19、值年 企业数 地点 产值年 企业数 地点 产值47 13 187 $312 203 518 $193 na54 32 260 $534 172 580 $329 na63 145 281 $869 534 733 $623 241 340 $47767 85 213 $1,196 496 721 $731 223 344 $81772 113 218 $1,978 444 627 $800 298 388 $1,15177 155 243 $5,285 457 673 $1,867 338 409 $2,78082 178 253 $7,313 372 544 $1,903 286 330 $

20、5,43687 172 241 $6,268 307 452 $1,701 233 277 $6,30092 157 226 $7,495 315 403 $2,204 222 261 $9,14297 159 204 $9,519 334 449 $3,327 222 259 $11,42002 147 187* $7,181 373 542 $3,090 204 237 $8,91907 na美国公司*氮、磷、钾生产商USA Companies* Primary Nutrients*2002年80%的产品是通过地方上的那些超过50人的经销商和混合站销售出去的，而这些产品是由主要的化肥生产企

21、业在20%的少数几个工厂生产的。In 2002, locations with 50 employees or more represent 80% of the shipments and 20% of the locations for Primary fertilizer producers (N,P, and K). *通常氮肥生产设施是很大的. Usually Nitrogen production facilities are larger.*磷肥产能主要是那些超过50人的企业在40%的地方工厂里创造的，这些工厂产出的产品价值超过这个产品总价值的90%。Phosphorus fer

22、tilizer production locations with 50 or more employees represent 40% of the locations and over 90% of the value shipped.美国复混肥企业USA Companies* Mixingo2002年27%超过20名雇员的的企业销售了80%的产品In 2002, Mixing facilities with 20 or more workers represent 27% of the locations and 80% of the shipments.o复混肥企业通常是小企业，分散在

23、不同的地区，主要根据当地种植者的要求生产复混肥Mixing facilities are smaller, decentralized and custom blend fertilizers for local growers.美国公司*农药和微量元素USA Companies* Pesticides and Micronutrientso200年在农药和微量元素生产领域，同样适合二八原则，即20%的雇员超过50人的企业山产了80%的产品。In 2002, The same 80/20 law holds true, plants with 50 or more workers repres

24、ent 20% of the locations and over 80% of the production.o美国政府的数据收集方法,不允许直接比较多家公司. US Government data collection methods does not allow for the direct comparison of the number of firms. 氮磷钾企业的成长和并购Growth and Consolidation of Primary Nutrient Companieso根据产品生命周期( PLC )的原理,在成长阶段会出现大量的竞争者. According to t

25、he principles of the Product Life Cycle (PLC), the greatest number of competitors appear during the growth phase.o然后在成熟期这些竞争者的数量将下降. Then the number declines during the mature phase.o大幅度增长发生在六十年代末期至八十年代初. Significant growth took place in the late 1960s to early 1980s.氮肥生产企业Companies with Nitrogen pl

26、antso从六十年代末期至八十年代初33家氮肥生产企业消失了. From the late 1960s to the early 1980s, 33 companies vanished from Nitrogen production.o10个石油/天然气气公司退出氮肥生产. Ten(10) oil/gas companies dropped out.o八十年代初,排名前5的公司的氮肥产量占总体的41%. By the early 1980s, 5 companies represented 41% of Nitrogen capacity in the USA.1980年五大氮肥生产企业1

27、980s Top Five Nitrogen ProducersoCF Industries2.2 mil. tonsoFarmland 2.2 mil. tonsoAgrico Chemical- Williams 1.7 mil. tonsoUnion Oil 1.3 mil. tonsoAllied Corporation1.1 mil. tonsoTotal Top 5 (41%)8.5 mil. Tonso54 companies/89 plants- 20.8 mil. tons退出的石油公司Oil Companies Dropping Outo阿科化学公司Arco chemica

28、lo大陆石油公司Continental Oilo海湾石油Gulf Oilo美孚化工Mobil ChemicaloReserve Oil and Gaso壳牌化学公司Shell ChemicaloSinclair Petrochemicalo太阳石油Sun OiloTenneco ChemicaloTexaco, Inc.除了被列出的十个石油公司In Addition To The Ten Oil Companies ListedoCities Services 和Hill Chemical 两个石油公司分别先进入然后又退出氮肥生产. Cities Services and Hill Chemi

29、cal, both oil companies, entered and dropped out of Nitrogen production.o石油工业在这个时候开始经历合并. The Petroleum Industry also started to go through consolidation at this time. 2006顶级化肥企业2006 Top Fertilozer CompaniesoTerra Industries oAgrium, Inc.*oPotash Corporation of Saskatchewan*oMosaic Company*oCF Indus

30、tries*除了氮肥还参与其他肥料的生产Involved in other fertilizer businesses besides Nitrogen production.Terra Industrieso成立于1964年,当时只有一个工厂Established in 1964 with one planto1965年已发展12个分销商Acquired 12 distributors in 1965o1974年上市Went public in 1974o1977年收购Riverside Chemicals In 1977 acquired Riverside Chemicalso1981年

31、被南非的Minorco 收购In 1981 Terra Industries acquired by Minorco (of South Africa)o2004年又被剥离出来Divested in 2004Terra IndustriesoAgrico Chemicals在1987年从Williams Industriesno剥离出来，现在成为Terra 主要部分是Terra Industries的一个子公司. Agrico Chemicals was divested by Williams Industries in 1987 and is now a general partner o

32、f Terra Nitrogen, a subsidiary of Terra IndustriesoTerra 公司有7个氮肥工厂Terra Nitrogen operates 7 plants.o氮肥业务占Terra业务的98%. Nitrogen is 98% of Terras business.Terra Industrieso占美国销售的70%. US represents 70% of sales.o2006年收入为18亿美元. Revenue is $1.8 billion in 2006.o2006年利润为420万美元占销售额的0.25% . Profit is $4.2 m

33、illion in 2006 or 0.25% of sales.Agrium, Inc. (AGU:nyse)o总部设在加拿大艾伯塔省Based In Alberta, Canada.o1992年由2个加拿大公司Consolidated Mining的化肥业务部和Alberta Energy合并成立。 Formed in 1992 from the fertilizers divisions of Consolidated Mining and Alberta Energy, both of Canada.o1993年和1996年收购了一些农也用品经销商. Acquired farm sup

34、ply dealers 1993 and 1996.Agrium, Inc.o收购Imperial Oil和Viridian的磷酸盐业务. Acquired the phosphate operations of Imperial Oil and Viridian.o在加拿大安大略省建设了磷酸盐工厂Opened phosphate operations in Ontario, Canadao2000年收购Unocal的氮肥业务. In 2000 acquired Unocals nitrogen fertilizer operationsAgrium, Inc.o2006年总销售42亿美元.

35、Total sales $4.2 billion (2006)o在美国销售占70%. Sales 70% in US.o分销占47%. Distribution 47% of sales.o矿业和制造业占销售51%. Mining and manufacturing 51% of sales.o利润为42 $ mil. 占1%销售额. Profit $42 mil. or 1% of sales.Potash Corp. of Saskatchewano收入为38亿美元Revenue of $3.8 billion.o利润为6.26亿美元，占销售额16.6%. Profit is $626 m

36、illion or 16.6% of saleso氮肥、磷肥、钾肥各占三分之一.One third of Revenues in each of Nitrogen, Phosphates, and Potassium.Potash Corp. of Saskatchewano碳酸钾的产能为1250万吨，占全球产量的20%. Production capacity of 12.5 million tons of Potash represents 20% of worlds capacity.o拥有中化香港集团20%的股份，是中国最大的化肥产品进口供应商. Owns 20% of Sinoche

37、m Hong Kong Holdings, Chinas largest importer of fertilizer products.Mosaic Company (MOS:nyse)o2004年由Cargill 、International Minerals and Chemicals合并而成. Formed in 2004 by the merger of Cargills crop nutritional unit and International Minerals and Chemicals.oCargill拥有三分之二的股份.Two-thirds owned by Cargil

38、l.o收入超过53亿美元，占美国的30%. Revenues equal $5.3 billion; 30% in US.Mosaic Company 销售比例Sales 利润比例Profit氮肥Nitrogen 2% 4%碳酸钾Potash 21% 96%磷酸盐Phosphates 53% -negative其它Other 24% -negativeCF Industries Holdings, Inc.o收入超过20亿Revenues equal $2 billion.o生产和分销网络Manufacturing and distribution network.o氮肥销售额占75%，磷酸盐

39、占25%. Nitrogen 75% of sales and phosphates 25% of sales.CF Industries Holdings, Inc.o利润占销售额1.7%. Profits are 1.7% of sales.o美国市场销售占81%.US represents 81% of sales.o加拿大市场销售占11%. Canada 11% of sales.o其它地区销售占8%. All other 8% of sales.Top 5 Company Profiles5大公司基本状况对比TerraIndustsAgriumPotashCorp SksMosaic

40、Corp.CFIndustsSales$1.8 Bil$4.2 Bil$3.8 Bil$5.3 Bil$2.0 BilProfit$4.2 Mil$42 Mil$626 Mil$106 Mil$84 MilProfit % Sales0.25%1.00%16.6%2.0%1.7%Sales %In USA 70%70%Potash = 96%Profit30%81%Comment98% sales N100% Mining/Mfg33% eaN,P,K76% Min/Mfg75% N25% PSummary总结及启示美国化肥工业的早期发展进程Early Stages US Fertilizer

41、 Industry o自然资源 矿物储备Natural Resources mineral depositso创新的思想Innovative Ideaso简单的采矿业和制造业Simple mining and manufacturingo企业联合定价Cartels could manipulate pricingo没有标准 以次充好Without standards adulterated productso较多的单一生产线Many single location operations20世纪初期Early 1900so方法过于复杂More sophisticated processeso扩张

42、数量Expanded number of locationso政府执行标准缓慢Slowly standards enforced by governmentso20世纪后期，化肥产品在很多情况下成为一些公司的副产品，例如主营业务是石油和天然气的公司. Later in 1900s, Fertilizer operations were, in many cases, by-products of companys major businesses oil and gas companies, for example.US Fertilizer Industry 1950-1980s1950-1

43、980年美国的化肥工业o重要成长Significant growtho很多新加入者： Many new entrants with:n自然资源Natural Resourcesn一个想法An idean副产品带来利润By-product as a profitn所有的都能赚钱All could make money美国成熟的化肥行业Maturing US Fertilizer Industryo那些不能给客户提供不同产品的企业已经离开这个行业. Those operators without a significant point of difference to offer customers have left the industry.o把化肥作为副产品的生产者(石油公司)不再具有重大的影响力Fertilizer as a by-product producer (oil companies) are no longer a significant influence.美国化肥企业在今天的成功Todays Successful US Fertilizer Companieso专注于化肥行业Devoted to fertilizer business.o大型石油和化学公司已经离开这个行业. Large oil and ch