中国手机市场特征分析

1、1-6月中国手机市场特征分析月中国手机市场特征分析 市场容量的特征市场容量的特征2002-2003年年总体总体市场容量趋势市场容量趋势v 2003年1-6月全部手机市场容量为25222522万台，同比增长1.7%.销量同比略涨销量同比略涨1.7%2003年1-6月新增用户数为3050万，其中：中国移动新增用户数为1674万，中国联通新增用户数为1376万；GSM新增用户数为2700万，CDMA新增用户数为350万。新增用户数：约50%的新增用户是新卡旧机使用者。换机群体：至少50%被换掉的手机正在被另外的人使用，只有10%的手机彻底退出市场，另外有30-40%的手机没有退出市场（闲置、回收、卖

2、掉等）。市场容量的特征市场容量的特征2002-2003年年GSM市场容量趋势市场容量趋势销量同比下降销量同比下降-6.8%v 2003年1-6月GSM手机市场容量为2259万台，同比下降-6.8%（-160万）。PROVINCE20022003growthQinghai2542916022-37.0%Tianjin7168650363-29.7%Ningxia2485017459-29.7%Shanxi7811556196-28.1%Jilin8113963717-21.5%Beijing201700168526-16.4%Inner Mongolia7032561293-12.8%Guang

3、dong647234608892-5.9%Fujian1346421389653.2%Shandong2068982210806.9%Zhejiang24410126921010.3%Hubei11294012885014.1%Jiangsu23886127662615.8%Yunnan8957710554517.8%Sichuan16364620738426.7%vGSM市场变动的原因：1.受CDMA市场容量扩大的影响，由去年同期的57万台增加到263万台。2.SARS疫情对手机市场的影响，尤其是SARS的重灾区。3.受小灵通市场的冲击。2002年末小灵通累计用户数约为1210万，今年1-6

4、月小灵通新增用户约为800万。小灵通用户中，至少有20-30%的用户原来准备手机，但是最后被小灵通吸引。2002-2003年年CDMA市场容量趋势市场容量趋势销量同比增长销量同比增长360%2003年1-6月CDMA手机市场容量为263万台，同比增长360%，市场容量的特征市场容量的特征vCDMA市场上升的原因：1. 运营商(虚拟运营商的出现;集团采购;资费套餐;网络比去年好转)2. IS95机型价格的下降，6月有66%CDMA95网络的手机3. 新的厂商之间的竞争(Nokia). 市场容量的预测市场容量的预测手机销量趋势预测2003年年2004年年首次购机25002300替换机2800320

5、0总计53005500单位：万单位：万 手机销量预测是在用手机销量预测是在用户数预测的基础上，通过户数预测的基础上，通过新卡新机、旧卡新机两个新卡新机、旧卡新机两个比例系数和净替换率进行比例系数和净替换率进行的推算。的推算。用户数预测结果方 法新增用户数预测结果 预测结果评估2003 2003 年年20042004年年瑞利分布多因素模型56004600 新增用户数是下降的。说明这种预测新增用户数是下降的。说明这种预测的结论与支付能力阈值预测法相似。的结论与支付能力阈值预测法相似。支付能力阈值预测法60005800 比较准确比较准确关联指标结构关系法47004400 关联指标结构法预测的结果不涉

6、及统关联指标结构法预测的结果不涉及统计虚报和水分计虚报和水分时间序列预测法65007000 根据模型的不同，可以有很多的结果，根据模型的不同，可以有很多的结果，但都是新增用户数越来越大。但都是新增用户数越来越大。曲线拟合法62006000 基本上与时间序列方法相似基本上与时间序列方法相似市场份额的特征市场份额的特征20032003年年6 6月不同制式的手机市场份额月不同制式的手机市场份额排序品牌总计总计排序品牌GSM排序品牌CDMA1Motorola19.27%1Motorola20.48%1Samsung20.69%2Nokia16.65%2Nokia19.49%2Hisense14.23%

7、3Samsung9.05%3Bird8.82%3Motorola12.21%4Bird8.14%4TCL8.37%4LG10.55%5TCL7.74%5Samsung7.06%5Soutec7.77%6Amoisonic4.39%6Amoisonic5.13%6Eastcom6.36%7Konka3.03%7Siemens3.51%7Putian4.25%8Siemens3.00%8Konka2.87%8Bird4.16%9Eastcom2.80%9Panda2.29%9TCL4.06%10Soutec2.19%10Philips2.27%10Konka3.93%11Hisense2.07%1

8、1Eastcom2.20%11Kyocera3.33%12Panda1.96%12Kejian1.99%12ZTE2.51%13Philips1.94%13Dbtel1.92%13Sanyo2.23%14Kejian1.74%14Panasonic1.89%14Lenovo1.45%15Dbtel1.64%15Capitel1.78%15CECT0.71%16Capitel1.62%16Lenovo1.41%16Capitel0.68%17Panasonic1.61%17Alcatel1.37%17Haier0.44%18LG1.54%18SonyEricsson1.37%18Kejian0.

9、26%19Lenovo1.42%19Soutec1.24%19Daxian0.12%20Alcatel1.17%20Haier1.18%20Datang0.06%市场份额的特征市场份额的特征BRANDDec-02Jun-03CHANGEBird5.2%8.1%3.0 Panda0.7%2.0%1.2 TCL6.8%7.7%1.0 Hisense1.1%2.1%1.0 Amoisonic3.5%4.4%0.9 BRANDDec-02Jun-03CHANGEMotorola26.0%19.3%-6.7 Nokia18.2%16.7%-1.5 Samsung10.3%9.0%-1.2 Alcatel

10、1.7%1.2%-0.5 LG2.0%1.5%-0.5 增长最快的品增长最快的品牌牌下降最快的品牌下降最快的品牌BRANDDec-02Jun-03CHANGEBird5.8%8.8%3.0 Samsung5.5%7.1%1.6 Panda0.9%2.3%1.3 Konka1.9%2.9%1.0 Amoisonic4.4%5.1%0.7 BRANDDec-02Jun-03CHANGEMotorola25.0%20.5%-4.5 Nokia23.0%19.5%-3.5 Alcatel2.1%1.4%-0.7 Siemens4.1%3.5%-0.6 Kejian2.6%2.0%-0.6 增长最快的品

11、牌增长最快的品牌下降最快的品牌下降最快的品牌整体市场GSM 市场CDMA 市场BRANDDec-02Jun-03CHANGEHisense5.3%14.2%8.9 TCL0.2%4.1%3.8 Putian0.5%4.3%3.7 Soutec4.3%7.8%3.5 Eastcom4.2%6.4%2.2 BRANDDec-02Jun-03CHANGEMotorola29.8%12.2%-17.5 Samsung28.7%20.7%-8.0 Kyocera4.2%3.3%-0.8 ZTE3.1%2.5%-0.6 Haier0.8%0.4%-0.4 增长最快的品牌增长最快的品牌下降最快的品牌下降最快

12、的品牌 国产品牌国产品牌 国外品牌国外品牌上半年国产品牌市场份额继续上升，但是幅度已经明显降低，预计下半年国产品牌之间的竞争可能会成为市场的焦点。GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征手机型号的变化特征： v手机从1998年6月的78个型号，到目前已经上升到520多个型号，所以手机的竞争比以前激烈了许多。v在型号的多样性上，国产手机略胜一筹。国产手机从最初没有型号，到2000年6月已经发展到35个型号。到今年6月份国产手机型号已经达到335个，而国外手机型号仅有194个。GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征国外主要品牌国外主要品牌1-6月市场份额走势月市场份额走势国产主要品牌国产主要品牌1-6月市场

13、份额走势月市场份额走势GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征两大巨头差距缩小；波导4月份超过TCL；v摩托罗拉摩托罗拉GSM份额走势份额走势MOTO GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征1.和去年年底比MOTOROLA市场份额下降了4.5个百分点。2.由于库存压力，4款新型号(C350，C359，T720I，M388C)没有竞争力，到6月份份额达到3.9%，去年也上市了4款新机型(C289，M388，T190，V70)，但到2002年6月份4个新机型已占10.6%。3.低端机市场下降最为剧烈（-2.4%）,而全部低端市场占整体市场的比例不断增加，从去年年底的44%增加到6月份的59%。在低端市场中T

14、系列的下降是整个低端市场份额下降的主要原因。V系列有998C替代V998+和V8088,C系列有C350替代C289。4.产品定位：缺乏高端产品。5.下半年至少将有10多款新机上市。MOTO GSM型号变化特征型号变化特征Type200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306份额变动份额变动200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306降价降价388C0.0%0.3%0.4%0.7%0.7%4252416638403900-352T7201.7%1.7%1.8%1.8%1.5%1.5%-0.2%27332634249623

15、1422392186-547V600.7%0.6%0.6%1.0%0.9%0.9%0.2%219620902047165715791568-628V700.5%0.4%0.4%0.6%0.9%0.8%0.4%302728682759218118661804 -1223T720i0.0%0.3%0.6%0.6%0.8%0.8%0.8%34243312284026342588-836V60i0.5%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.8%0.8%0.3%258224552381184317191705-877C3590.0%0.5%0.5%156615737M3880.9%0.7%0.7%0.6%0.5%

16、0.4%-0.5%283528232729268526352610-225V998+4.7%5.8%4.9%3.5%2.5%2.6%-2.1%10401000998986978913-127C3500.2%1.8%2.5%2.5%2.0%2.0%17321699151514791468-264T1902.6%2.3%2.1%1.9%2.0%1.4%-1.2%762755740725696674-88V80882.1%1.5%1.5%1.4%1.3%1.3%-0.8%130413041214114410791011-293C3001.1%1.2%1.1%1.0%1.3%1.2%0.1%12451

17、23511921023903892-353T1912.8%2.6%2.4%1.8%1.3%1.2%-1.6%856849843827799783-73V998C0.3%0.5%0.7%0.9%1.1%1.1%0.8%159615381448126012361166-430V661.7%1.3%1.1%1.3%1.2%1.0%-0.7%157215661477132512661250-322C2892.4%2.1%2.0%1.5%1.3%1.0%-1.4%927897885844811801-126C3300.6%0.7%0.8%0.7%0.6%0.6%0.0%13581348123211599

18、97951-407E3601.2%1.2%1.2%1.0%0.8%0.6%-0.6%161715771437138713481318-299NOKIA GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征v诺基亚诺基亚GSMGSM份额走势份额走势1.1-6月份诺基亚品牌份额下降3.5个百分点。2.诺基亚高端市场份额下降。3.低端市场发展较快，销售额的份额降低。4.上半年上市了6个型号,到6月份这6个型号的份额合计为3.9%,而2002年上半年上市了8个型号,2002年6月份8个新型号的份额合计为2.3%.所以今年上半年两个巨头的差距缩小了.5.产品线长。NOKIA GSM型号变化特征型号变化特征Type2003

19、01 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306份额变动份额变动200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306降价降价8910I0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%6532642764476280-25292100.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%595660736010599358005681-27589100.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%554153424964477643134105 -143676500.6%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%-0.4%498548294

20、647438742234094-89172500.1%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%4194411839973883-31136500.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%41154004395738663725-39072100.5%0.4%0.4%0.3%0.3%0.2%-0.2%344534163360332032613167-27861000.4%0.5%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.9%0.5%390038933614307729492824 -107688550.6%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.4%0.4%-0.3%284528572684261325482488-3576

21、6100.9%1.0%1.1%1.2%1.3%1.5%0.6%290928762747261024642375-53465100.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%217420571921189418571749-42583103.0%3.2%3.2%3.3%3.4%3.5%0.6%201019721885179116911657-35335300.0%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%186918211785154815051428-44182505.1%4.7%4.3%3.8%3.6%3.7%-1.5%153315081466142413621301-23

22、282100.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%146613931323125712391300-16652100.3%0.2%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.3%122311661161114611311107-11621000.5%2.3%2.6%2.4%2.6%2.7%2.2%12661252121811321038991-27555100.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.2%9759459659551010922-5333500.8%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%-0.6%973961958948941911-6236102.3%2

23、.0%2.2%2.4%2.1%2.1%-0.2%118411871040995955909-27533150.6%0.4%0.4%0.2%0.2%0.1%-0.4%918913905897884890-2833300.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%873829788749824868-535100.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%1253117811091094894802-45133104.0%3.3%2.9%2.9%3.1%2.4%-1.6%767767766743706689-78第一集团型号间的竞争第一集团型号间的竞争v波导波导GSMGSM

24、市场份额走势市场份额走势BIRD GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征v6月份波导份额比去年年底上升了3.0个百分点，这使其成为上半年最大的赢家，并稳居排名第三位，同时它在4月份超过TCL位居国产品牌的老大。v波导的成功很明显受益于其低端产品。其1500元以下的低端机半年上升了2.7个百分点。黑白屏清库。v波导成功的第二个原因是8个新产品上市带来了2.7%的份额。v波导成功的第三个原因是新产品的快速降价，波导在新机型上市仅1-2个月，就大幅降价，使消费者用较低的价格买到相对新的产品。在8款新产品中有6款中端机，但其中有3款仅在1-2个月就降为低端机。v7月将有诸多新产品上市BIRD GSM型号变

25、化特征型号变化特征Type200301200302200303200304200305200306份额变动份额变动200301200302200303200304200305200306降价降价V090.2%0.5%0.8%0.9%1.0%0.8%0.6%197019491823163415791568-402SC020.5%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.0%210621252085189017961779-327V080.7%1.1%1.0%0.8%0.6%0.5%-0.2%187918231798178317931767-112GC6000.3%0.2%0.3%0.3%0.2

26、%0.2%-0.1%336634143015273626592661-705SC040.1%0.1%2859 -V180.0%0.1%0.1%24772497 20G2000.4%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.3%175517351707171015881622-133Q1680.0%0.0%2346 -S32000.1%0.3%0.9%1.6%1.8%1.0%0.9%160911941034866836844-765SC030.0%0.2%0.4%1.0%1.0%1855161314931404 451S18200.7%1.0%1.4%1.0%0.7%0.8%0.1%1479

27、13361271124212331094-385S32200.0%0.2%0.7%1.1%1.5%0.8%0.7%156813841357111610611054-514S82890.0%0.1%0.3%0.6%0.8%0.8%17801552127710411010 770S20000.6%0.6%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.6%0.0%156515021465133212781285-280S48200.0%0.2%0.4%0.6%0.6%0.6%15801268114611231115 465S15001.1%1.0%0.6%0.4%0.3%0.3%-0.8%12741269125512

28、531148995-279S11200.1%0.2%0.2%11311121 10S11000.2%0.1%0.3%0.3%0.2%0.2%-0.1%11161116990984912901-215S12200.8%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.7%12991317128412251055945-354S18000.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.3%123112091212115410361003-228S12000.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.1%1226116210511017985954-272S1000A0.1%0.1%0.1%

29、0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%111110551002952878820-291MC8288+0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%759721685651716745-14G1000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%186019821732151912451298-562S10000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%11041050921940839837-267S1200D0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%1027976927881747780-247S2880.0%0.0%1056 -v三星三星GSMG

30、SM市场份额走势市场份额走势SAMSUNG GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征1.和2002年12月比三星6月份市场份额上升了1.6个百分点。2.其中高端机上升了1.4个百分点。这主要是因为三星上半年上市了8款新机型，全部都是高端机。这些新机型共获得2.6%的份额。2002年上半年三星仅有3款新机型上市。3.6月份三星低端机份额增长主要是因为N628降价，降到1500元以下。4.零售店促销力度加大。SAMSUNG GSM型号变化特征型号变化特征Type200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306份额变动份额变动 200301 200302 200303 2

31、00304 200305 200306降价降价SGH-S3080.0%0.5%0.7%0.9%0.9%4780390837793664 -1116SGH-T4080.0%0.3%0.6%0.7%0.9%0.9%46803983341533203224 -1456SGH-T2080.4%0.4%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.6%0.2%495946144282367634403332 -1627SGH-T5080.0%0.2%0.4%0.5%0.5%0.5%66515277440044114253 -2398SGH-S1080.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.1%510348784

32、435355133913275 -1828SGH-V2080.1%0.1%3746- SGH-T3080.0%0.0%3759- SGH-P4080.0%0.0%5836- T108+0.3%1.1%1.1%1.0%1.1%1.2%0.9%432041043899370429802834 -1486A2881.5%1.3%1.5%1.1%0.9%0.8%-0.7%192118881770172716921636-285A3080.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.0%226520461798170516741560-705A4080.4%0.4%0.3%0.2%0.2%0.1%-

33、0.2%208920321946184618271725-364SGH-Q2080.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%380135442928318526242500 -1301N6281.4%1.5%1.3%1.3%1.1%1.4%0.0%171016741653163015411371-339N2880.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%179516511532137312621150-645N1880.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%-0.2%126813171164113911011083-185R2080.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%

34、0.0%0.0%-0.1%1120109010301006948909-211A1880.6%0.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%-0.5%13541306138013531143987-367A3880.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%140615591496135814941380-26N5080.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%111410581005955950980-134A1000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%159915191443137111001120-479vTCLTCL的的GSMGSM市场份额走势市场份额

35、走势 TCL GSM市场份额的特征市场份额的特征1.6月份TCL品牌份额与去年年底相比基本稳定。2.TCL的价格策略在向低端机倾斜，它的主力型号3188， 2188也都降到了低价位，而且其新上市的产品价格明显低于以前上市的新产品。没有3000元以上的高端机型。3.TCL机型比较多，同质性强，有明显的机海战术倾向，仅上半年就上市了12款新机型。但其杂乱的产品，无法形成鲜明特色的机型，其产品生命周期都比较短。我们认为，重新整合产品线，在不周的价格层推出各具特色的机型，是保住品牌份额的当务之急。4.渠道让利在减少（目前地区代理商的利润在30元左右，原来80元左右），渠道的推动力在减弱。 原来只有单个

36、省级包销商，现在多元化，包销商的精力分散。TCL GSM型号变化特征型号变化特征Type200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306份额变动份额变动200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306降价降价L6180.0%0.2%0.3%0.5%0.5%0.5%29802679252622552222-758TCLS3200.0%0.1%0.2%0.3%0.4%0.4%36473064250721261780-186729880.0%0.3%0.3%15141503-11TCLS5000.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%2380

37、20411665-715L6680.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%293423992251-683U20.0%0.1%0.1%1848186921U30.0%0.1%0.1%188419153131882.0%2.3%1.7%1.5%1.4%1.5%-0.5%159915701548155114561448-15121880.7%0.5%0.8%1.0%1.2%0.9%0.2%174417581489137313061294-45032881.1%1.1%1.0%0.9%0.7%0.7%-0.4%159915611542153514411432-16733880.8%0.9%0.8%0.7%0.

38、6%0.6%-0.2%163615841574155514481437-19936881.2%1.3%1.0%0.8%0.7%0.6%-0.6%160815721550153914311407-20137880.8%1.0%1.2%1.1%0.7%0.5%-0.2%158915661553154014211409-18023880.1%0.2%0.5%0.6%0.8%0.5%0.4%175217511474137613051291-46122880.1%0.2%0.5%0.7%0.8%0.4%0.3%175817651474135113071290-46826880.0%0.2%0.2%148

39、51494939880.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%0.2%16491653163314321411-23868980.7%0.4%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.6%143513631295123013801250-18583880.2%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%13221281128512421091877-44591880.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%14801406955933-54789880.3%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.2%130112891275132613141050-25162980.5%0.3%0.2%0.

40、1%0.1%0.0%-0.4%137913641328131612281230-14982980.3%0.1%0.1%0.0%0.1%0.0%-0.3%135013391229125312081049-30128980.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%113911361115111510891049-9061980.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%-0.1%137013781359137313771281-89TCL51880.0%0.0%1103- TCL52880.0%0.0%1093- v厦新厦新GSMGSM市场份额走势市场份额走势AMOI GSM市场份

41、额的特征市场份额的特征v 1-6月份厦新份额基本保持稳定，厦新4月份上市两款3000元以上的高端机型F9和F99，目前份额极小。厦新的中端机是其份额的主要增长点。v 厦新之所以能维持份额不降，主要还是其主力型号表现稳定（4.4%）。厦新的策略是推出高品质的低价中端机，在中高端推出机型后，通过快速降价提高市场份额。上半年厦新虽然推出了7款新机型，但市场表现都不太理想。在近期还是需要通过价格手段来维持市场份额。AMOI GSM型号变化特征型号变化特征Type200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306份额变动份额变动200301 200302 200303 2

42、00304 200305 200306降价降价F990.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%422038504084-136F90.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%322034803450230A61.5%1.3%1.1%1.2%1.1%1.1%-0.3%195019101843170116671559-391A6+0.9%0.8%0.7%0.9%0.9%0.9%-0.1%202320081905173616951602-421A6C0.4%0.5%0.6%0.7%0.8%0.8%0.4%189418541816167615721524-370A80.9%0.9%0.8%0.9%0.8%0.7%-0.2%

43、255523612316204720002000-555A8+0.6%0.6%0.6%0.6%0.5%0.5%-0.1%290526832606228922612237-668A800.3%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.4%0.1%245621392024182318181654-802A680.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%25302117233419841940-590A900.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%3280296829532644-636A8e0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%265023612341-309A600.0%0.1%0.1%17491699-

44、50A6000.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%198017571704-276A8398F0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.0%1020969921875735705-315A83980.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%915875827829746691-224A86980.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%124011851190111111181159-81A82980.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%807815836782624664-143v熊猫熊猫GSMGSM市场份额走势市场份额走势PANDA GSM市场份

45、额的特征市场份额的特征v 1-6月份熊猫份额上升了1.4个百分点，是上半年的大赢家之一。v 上半年共上市了10款机型，但目前只有低端市场的GM3550达到0.3%，其他新型号表现都一般。v 中端GM958市场份额达到0.7%，是因为上半年该机型降价约850元。v 广告投入较大。PANDA GSM型号变化特征型号变化特征Type200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306份份额额变变动动 200301 200302 200303 200304 200305 200306降降价价GM8000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%49804810

46、39183474-1506GM9580.3%0.3%0.3%0.5%0.7%0.7%0.4%269726922546211119711960-737GM1000.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.2%0.2%337233282947263324162267-1105GM9680.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%271226572518200419581929-783GM6000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%290029752831-69EMOL980.0%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%357835093003289528152

47、771-807GM9880.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%2494206319581952-542EMOL880.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%19801957-23GM35500.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.3%0.3%14941425132011111158-336GM8180.1%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.2%0.0%141313661331134711661127-286EMOL990.3%0.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%185918551713165215921420-439EMOL660.0%0.0

48、%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%180014801463-337EMOL99+0.0%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%190018051715162915721436-46419200.2%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%0.1%-0.1%849812738760773725-124GM55100.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.1%0.1%14001330969922-478GM8280.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%168015961516144011491080-600GPM35510.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0

49、.0%14201349128213391300-120第二集团型号间的竞争第二集团型号间的竞争不同品牌销售额市场份额的变动情况不同品牌销售额市场份额的变动情况Brand200212200301200302200303200304200305200306增减变动增减变动Nokia25.3%21.4%21.3%20.7%21.0%20.4%19.6%-5.8%Motorola20.8%20.2%19.8%20.5%19.7%18.8%17.8%-3.0%Samsung8.3%9.0%8.6%9.1%10.5%10.8%11.7%3.4%TCL8.1%8.8%8.5%8.2%8.1%8.0%7.8%

50、-0.3%Bird5.1%6.2%6.5%7.2%7.5%7.8%7.2%2.1%Amoisonic5.8%6.4%5.7%5.6%5.6%5.7%5.7%0.0%Panasonic3.5%3.0%3.0%3.1%3.1%3.2%3.2%-0.3%Siemens2.9%2.7%2.9%2.9%2.8%2.9%2.6%-0.2%Panda1.0%1.3%1.8%1.6%1.8%2.3%2.6%1.6%Konka1.4%1.9%1.8%2.0%2.2%2.7%2.4%1.0%Philips1.5%1.7%1.7%1.4%1.3%1.7%2.3%0.8%Eastcom2.8%2.8%2.8%2.7%

51、2.3%2.1%2.2%-0.6%Kejian2.3%2.6%2.6%2.3%2.5%2.2%2.1%-0.2%SonyEricsson1.7%1.1%1.5%1.3%1.2%1.2%1.6%-0.1%Capitel1.5%1.6%1.5%1.3%1.1%1.4%1.5%0.0%Others8.0%9.4%10.2%10.1%9.4%8.9%9.7%1.6%GSM & CDMA 平均价格变动平均价格变动 ( 市场份额加权价格市场份额加权价格)从从02年年12月至月至03年年6月月CDMA 的平均的平均价格下降了价格下降了43%。2003年上半年年上半年GSM市场上平均零售价市场上平均零

52、售价格走势平稳格走势平稳。国产品牌平均价格下降幅度超过国外品国产品牌平均价格下降幅度超过国外品牌。牌。GSM & CDMA价格档的变动价格档的变动17.8%19.7%17.7%20.8%22.3%23.1%24.5%26.4%29.8%30.7%35.8%31.5%37.0%34.5%27.1%29.8%33.7%25.0%27.3%21.5%21.1%11.4%7.7%6.5%6.7%6.1%7.3%7.5%8.3%7.5%5.8%4.8%5.3%5.1%5.2%9.0%5.4%5.6%6.9%7.6%6.0%7.2%0%20%40%60%80%100%Dec-02Jan-03Feb

53、-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Below 10001500-10002000-15002500-20003000-2500Above 3000GSMCDMA0%0%0%0%1%1%5%2%3%5%10%26%34%44%11%13%13%34%40%32%22%14%23%26%14%3%3%14%25%18%26%10%14%13%6%47%44%30%32%16%17%9%0%20%40%60%80%100%D ec-02Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Below 10001000-15001500-20002000-2500

54、2500-3000Above 3000GSM中价位在中价位在1500以下的手机已经覆盖了以下的手机已经覆盖了 60% 的市场的市场CDMA市场有明显向低端机市场过渡的趋势市场有明显向低端机市场过渡的趋势. 6月价格低于月价格低于1500元的手机占领了将近元的手机占领了将近50%的市的市场场,相反在相反在02年年12月这个价格段手机的市场占月这个价格段手机的市场占有率是有率是2%GSM / 分价格档累计市场份额分价格档累计市场份额 2003年上半年年上半年 GSMGSM产品特性产品特性200212200301200302200303200304200305200306Compare with D

55、ec-02和弦铃声23.7%26.8%30.3%34.5%37.9%39.8%42.4%18.7%彩屏12.4%11.3%12.9%17.1%20.3%23.1%26.4%14.0%双屏26.5%30.2%30.5%32.7%34.9%36.6%37.1%10.5%折叠47.8%51.2%50.2%50.8%53.3%54.7%56.1%8.3%彩信5.2%3.2%3.9%4.9%5.7%6.2%7.1%1.9%摄像5.5%3.4%4.1%4.8%5.7%6.2%7.0%1.5%Java7.8%6.0%6.6%7.6%8.3%8.5%9.1%1.3%内置FM10.0%8.9%8.4%8.6%1

56、0.4%10.9%11.2%1.3%WAP64.7%61.5%60.0%60.0%61.4%63.0%65.2%0.5%红外线20.9%17.6%17.5%18.4%20.5%21.5%21.0%0.1%PDA3.1%1.8%1.6%1.6%1.7%1.7%1.8%-1.3%GSM 产品特性产品特性不同外形的不同外形的GSM市场份额市场份额单屏和双屏机占单屏和双屏机占GSM折叠机的市场份额折叠机的市场份额折叠机已经占整个折叠机已经占整个GSM市场的市场的 56%。GSM折叠机中双屏机已经占据了折叠机中双屏机已经占据了37% 的的市场份额。市场份额。GSM: 彩屏手机发展彩屏手机发展 Jan-0

57、3Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Total0.2K2 1 3 4 10 4K5 8 4 5 5 63365K4 7 4 9 12 541 Total11 16 8 17 21 1184 份额份额价格价格不同色阶彩屏的份额走势不同色阶彩屏的份额走势&彩屏平均价格走势彩屏平均价格走势2003不同色阶彩屏上市情况不同色阶彩屏上市情况 Jan-03Feb-03Mar-03Apr-03May-03Jun-03Total1000元以下元以下01000-1499元元111500-1999元元1317122000-2499元元1172112500-2999元元25472203000-3499元元121413123500-3999元元222284000元以上元以上4372420Total1116817211184彩屏分价格档走势彩屏分价格档走势2003彩屏新品分价格档上市状况彩屏新品分价