宏观经济学及财务知识分析规划综合

1、chapter 2measuring the macroeconomy1copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.questions what key data do macroeconomists look at? how are key macroeconomic data estimated and calculated? what is the difference between “nominal” and “real” values? how are stock market valu

2、es related to interest rates?2copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.questions how are interest rates related to the price level and the inflation rate? how is unemployment related to total production? what is right-and what is wrong-with the key measure of economic ac

3、tivity, real gdp?3copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the importance of data economists use quantitative data to examine and understand behaviorpricesquantitiesvalues data can be used in two waysmake quantitative forecaststest economic theories4copyright 2002 by the

4、 mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.most important macroeconomic data real gdp the unemployment rate the inflation rate the interest rate the level of the stock market the exchange rate5copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.table 2.1 - the six key economi

5、c variables6copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate the nominal exchange rate is the relative price of two different currenciesdetermined in the foreign exchange market example1.00 equals $1.20$1.00 equals 0.837copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill compani

6、es, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate domestic exporters earn foreign currency when they export productsneed to trade the foreign currency for dollars foreign producers earn dollars when u.s. residents import their productsneed to trade the dollars for foreign currency8copyright 2002 by the

7、 mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.1 - the market for foreign exchange9copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate the real exchange rate is the nominal exchange rate adjusted for changes in the value of the currencydepends on the no

8、minal exchange rate and the price level10copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate example 1nominal exchange rate changes from $1.20 = 1.00 to $2.40 = 1.00price level doublesreal exchange rate is unchanged example 2nominal exchange rate remains at the sa

9、me level ($1.20 = 1.00)price level doublesreal exchange rate falls by half11copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate example 3nominal exchange rate increases from $1.20 = 1.00 to $2.30 = 1.00price level remains the samereal exchange rate doubles12copyri

10、ght 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate to calculate the real exchange rate (), you need three pieces of informationprice level in the home country (p)price level abroad (p*)nominal exchange rate (e)*ppe 13copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. al

11、l rights reserved.the exchange rate there are many different currencies in the worldmany different exchange rates economists construct an exchange rate index to represent “the” exchange rateeach country receives a weight equal to its share of total u.s. trade14copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill compa

12、nies, inc. all rights reserved.the exchange rate the exchange rate index is by averaging each countrys current exchange rate relative to its exchange rate in the base year (1992)countries all trade) of share (1992 rate) exchange (1992rate) exchange (current 100 index15copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hi

13、ll companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.2 - the exchange rate index,1992-199816copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock market the most representative index of the u.s. stock market is the standard and poors composite index (s&p 500) the most common

14、ly discussed index of the u.s. stock market is the dow-jones industrial average17copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock market stock market averages are in nominal termsmust divide by some measure of the price level to get the real value of the stock market t

15、he real value of the stock market is a sensitive indicator of the relative optimism or pessimism of investorscan forecast future investment spending18copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock market investors face a choice between holding stocks and holding bond

16、sstocks are shares of ownership of a corporation entitles you to a portion of the companys profitsbonds are debts that the corporation owes you pays periodic interest payments and returns principal to you at maturity19copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock ma

17、rket rates of returnfor bonds, the rate of return is the interest rate (r)for stocks, the rate of return is the ratio of earnings per share (es) to the price paid (ps) stocks are riskyinvestors may require a risk premium (s)20copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the

18、stock market investors will hold only stocks ifsssrpesssrpe investors will hold only bonds if21copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock market investors will hold both stocks and bonds ifsssrpe this means that the value of a stock is equal tosssrep22copyright 2

19、002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock market how can we measure es?newspaper reports what the firms accountants have calculated (ea)investors are interested in some long-run average of expected future earnings (es)need an estimate of the relationship between ea and es2

20、3copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.3 - calculating the value of abasket of stocks24copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the stock market provides information onthe current level of profits (earnings)whether investors are o

21、ptimistic or pessimisticthe current cost of capitalattitudes toward risk25copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the interest rate is the price at which purchasing power can be shifted from the future into the present is not a single lump sum, but an ongoing stream of

22、payments made over timeis a flow variable26copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the interest rate there is a large number of different interest rates that vary byriskdurationtax treatment published interest rates are nominal interest ratesrate inflation-rate interest

23、 nominalrate interest real27copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.4 - the real versus the nominalinterest rate28copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the price level is most frequently measured by the consumer price index (cpi)

24、 whichis calculated monthly by the bureau of labor statisticsis an expenditure-weighted index29copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.table 2.5 - calculating a price index for fruit: an example30copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the

25、consumer price index price index formulaweight) index banana(bananas of priceyear -basetoday bananas of priceweight) indexpear (pears of priceyear -basetoday pears of priceweight) index apple(apples of priceyear -basetoday apples of priceweight) index orange(oranges of priceyear -basetoday oranges o

26、f priceindex31copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the consumer price index in the base year, the price index will equal 100100 4)($0.40$0.40 9)($0.90$0.9042)($1.20$1.20 45)($0.75$0.75index32copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the co

27、nsumer price index in the subsequent year, the price index will equal 138138 4)($0.40$0.40 9)($0.90$0.9042)($1.20$1.00 45)($0.75$1.50index33copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.kinds of index numbers laspeyres indexuses relative expenditure levels in a fixed base yea

28、r as weightsexample: consumer price index paasche indexuses current, variable expenditure levels as weightsexample: gdp deflator34copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.kinds of index numbers all price indices are imperfectthe laspeyres index overstates the effects of

29、price increases based on a fixed market basket does not take into account that consumers substitute relatively cheaper goods for relatively more expensive goods when prices rise (substitution bias)35copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.kinds of index numbers all pric

30、e indices are imperfectthe paasche index understates the effects of price increases does take account of substitution does not take into account the fact that substituted items are less-valued than the items they replace36copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the infl

31、ation rate is a measure of the rate of change in the price level over timeis a flow variable can be measured using different price indicesconsumer price index (cpi)gdp deflator37copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.5 - different measures of u.s. inflation, 1

32、960-200038copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the unemployment rate is the fraction of people who want a jobare looking for a jobcannot find a job is calculated using the current population surveymonthly survey by the bureau of labor statistics39copyright 2002 by th

33、e mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the unemployment rate individuals are classified into one of four categoriesthose who are employedthose who are out of the labor force and do not want a job currentlythose who do want a job currently, but have given up looking for onethose who do wan

34、t a job and are currently looking for one40copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the unemployment ratework)for (looking(employed)forcelabor work)for (looking(employed)workfor lookingforcelabor workfor lookingrate ntunemployme41copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill compani

35、es, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.6 - the u.s. unemployment rate since 195042copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.the unemployment rate is a stock variable may underestimate the real experience of unemploymentdiscouraged workersworkers who are part-time for econo

36、mic reasons vary by demographic group43copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.7 - u.s. unemployment rates by demographic group, 1960-200044copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.okuns law describes the relationship between unempl

37、oyment and output in the u.s. implies that a 1 percentage-point fall in unemployment is associated with an extra 2.5 percentage points of growth in real gdpnt)unemployme in change point-e(percentag2.5-output) potential in growth (%gdp real in change %45copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, in

38、c. all rights reserved.figure 2.8 - okuns law46copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.real gdp is calculated by adding up the value of all final goods and services produced in the economyis a flow variable includes final goods and services purchased byconsumersfirmsthe

39、 government47copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.nominal versus real gdp nominal gdp measures current output using current-year priceschanges in nominal gdp can occur from changes in either output or prices real gdp measures current output using prices from a base y

40、earchanges in real gdp can only occur if output changes48copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.nominal versus real gdp exampleproductbase-yearoutputbase-yearprice($/lb.)currentoutputcurrentprice($/lb.)oranges6 lbs.$0.758 lbs.$1.00apples3.5 lbs.$1.203.5 lbs.$1.20pears1

41、 lb.$0.901 lb.$0.50bananas1 lb.$0.401 lb.$0.4049copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved. base yearnominal gdp = $10.00real gdp = $10.00 current yearnominal gdp = $13.10real gdp = $11.50nominal versus real gdp50copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights

42、 reserved.more on gdp intermediate goodsare goods sold to a firm for use in further productionare excluded from gdp changes in inventoriesare counted as part of investment imputationsare made for goods and services not sold through markets51copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all right

43、s reserved.components of real gdp (y) consumption (c) investment (i)residential structuresnon-residential structuresproducers durable equipmentchanges in business inventories government purchases (g) net exports (nx)nxgicy52copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.table

44、2.8 - components of gdp, third quarter of 200053copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.what is and is not in gdp included in gdp (but should not be)replacement of worn-out or obsolete capitalgovernment purchases which could be counted as intermediate goods not included in gdp (but should be)household productiondepletion of scarce natural resources“bads”54copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved.figure 2.9 - labor force participation ratesby gender, 1948-199655copyright 2002 by the mcgraw-hill companies, inc. all rights reserved