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1、1創新、擴散、與工業管理創新、擴散、與工業管理陳慶文高雄第一科技大學資訊管理系(所)暨電子化企業研究所中華民國97年12月24日2one of the greatest pains to human nature is the pain of a new idea. it.makes you think that after all, your favorite notions may be wrong, your firmest beliefs ill-founded. naturally, therefore, common men hate a new idea, and are dis

2、posed more or less to ill-treat the original man who brings it.-walter bagehot physics and politics 3the snowmobile revolution in the arcticthe skolt lappstext taken from rogers, e.m., 1995, diffusion of innovations (new york: free press), p. 406-8.45in the united states the snowmobile is a means of

3、 winter recreation. since the invention of the ski-doo, a one-person snow vehicle, in 1958, the adoption of snowmobiles spread dramatically, and within a dozen years over a million were in use in north america. 6but among the skolt lapps, a reindeer-herding people of northern finland who live above

4、the arctic circle, the rapid introduction of snowmobiles caused far-reaching consequences that were termed disastrous” 7prior to the introduction of snowmobiles, the skolt lapps herded semi-domesticated reindeer for their livelihood. reindeer meat was the main food. reindeer sleds were the principal

5、 means of transportation, reindeer hides were used for making clothing and shoes. surplus meat was sold at trading stores for cash to buy flour, sugar, tea, and other staples. 8the lapps saw themselves mainly as reindeer-herders, and prestige was accorded to men who had a good string of draught rein

6、deer. lapp society was an egalitarian system in which each family had approximately equal number of animals. 9skolt children received a first-tooth reindeer, a name-day reindeer, and gifts on various other occasions, including wedding gifts of reindeer, so that a new household began with a small her

7、d of the beloved animals. the lapps felt a special relationship with their reindeer, and treated them with much care. the reindeer was the central object in lapp culture.10in 1961 a bombardier ski-doo from canada was displayed in rovaniemi, the capital city of finnish lapland. a schoolteacher purcha

8、sed this snowmobile for recreational travel, but soon found that it was useful for hauling wood and storebought supplies. the lapps began using snowmobiles for reindeer herding. within the following year, two ski-doos were purchased for herding reindeer in an area where the land was forested and roc

9、ky. ski-doo k6111dr. pertti pelto of the university of connecticut had lived among the skolt lapps in the sevettijrvi region of northern finland for several years, beginning in 1958, prior to the introduction of snowmobiles in 1962-1963. pelto returned to this community repeatedly over the next deca

10、de to assess the impact of the snowmobile revolution 12snowmobile numbers010203040506070801960196219641966196819701972yearnumber the rate of adoption of snowmobiles was very rapid among the lapps. three snowmobiles were adopted in the second year of diffusion, five more the next year, then eight mor

11、e, and sixteen in 1966 and 1967. by 1971, almost every one of the seventy-two households in sevettijrvi (the village studied by pelto) had at least one snowmobile.13an improved model, the motoski, was introduced from sweden. it had a more powerful motor and was better suited to driving in rough terr

12、ain.14the main advantage of the snowmobile was much faster travel. the round trip from sevettijrvi to buy staple supplies in norwegian stores was reduced from three days by reindeer sled, to five hours by snowmobile. within a few years of their initial introduction, snowmobiles completely replaced s

13、kis and reindeer sleds as a means of herding reindeer. 15unfortunately, the noise and the smell of the machines drove the reindeer into a near-wild state. the friendly relationships between the lapps and their animals was disrupted by the high-speed machines. frightened running by the reindeer decre

14、ased the number of reindeer calves born each year. 16the average number of reindeer per household in sevettigrvi dropped from fifty-two in pre-snowmobile days, to only twelve in 1971, a decade later. this average is misleading because about two-thirds of the lapp households completely dropped out of

15、 reindeer-raising as a result of the snowmobile. most could not find other work and were unemployed. on the other hand, one family in sevettigrvi, who were relatively early in purchasing a snowmobile, built up a large herd, and by 1971 owned one-third of all reindeer in the community.17not only did

16、the frightened reindeer have fewer calves, but the precipitous drop in the number of reindeer also occurred because many of the animals had to be slaughtered for their meat, so the lapps c o u l d p u r c h a s e t h e snowmobiles, gasoline for their operations, and spare parts and repairs. a new ma

17、chine cost about $1000, and gas and repairs typically cost about $425 per year. 18despite this relatively high cost (for the skolt lapps, who lived on a subsistence income), snowmobiles were considered a household necessity, and the motorized herding of reindeer was considered much more prestigious

18、than herding by skis or with reindeer sleds. the snowmobile revolution pushed the skolt lapps into a tailspin of cash dependency, debt, and unemployment.19further, lapp society is very individualistic, and given the technologys advantages for the first adopters (who were wealthier and younger than t

19、he average), initial adoption was impossible to prevent. thereafter, the diffusion process quickly ran its course. 20as a result, the reindeer-centred culture of the skolt lapps was severely disrupted. most families today are unemployed and depend upon the finnish government for subsistence payments

20、. the snowmobile revolution in the arctic led to disastrous consequences for the reindeer, and for the lapps who depended on the animals for their livelihood.21since the anthropological study of the snowmobile revolution by pertti pelto, further technological developments have occurred in lapland. d

21、uring the summer months, the lapps began using motorcycles to herd their reindeer. certain affluent lapps even began using helicopters. 22an increasing number of reindeer slaughtered for meat were found to have stomach ulcers. certainly technological innovation has not been kind to the skolt lapps.c

22、onsequences of innovations consequences, the changes that occur to an individual or to a social system as a result of the adoption or rejection of an innovation. chapter 11 everett rogers father of this field of study of the diffusion of innovationschairman of the department of communication and jou

23、rnalism at the university of new mexicofirst edition published in 1962now in its fifth edition - reviews more than 5,000 publications in this field of “diffusion research”covers about 20 different disciplines such as anthropology, communication, industrial engineering, psychologyfree press, 200325de

24、finition of diffusion of innovation the process by which an innovation is communicated through certain channels over time among the members of a social system. - everett rogers the reason why taiwan has become the leader in so many fields is because of its unyielding commitments to innovation.bill g

25、ates in the film - its very well made in taiwan innovation does not need to be new in terms of being recently developed, it only needs to be new to the person or organization that is adopting and implementing it.- rogers, 1995 -28management of technologythe key to competitiveness and wealth creation

26、technology: all the knowledge, products, processes, tools, methods, and systems employed in the creation of goods or in providing services. (the way we do things.)tarek khalil, 2000 (univ. of miami)29example:iomega (zip disk): a parallel port zip driver (suck product!)ultra-sound in india (misused p

27、roduct!)mcdonald: parallel production for competition (process innovation with latest cooking technologies)30making hamburgers at mcdonalds, burger king, and wendys31everett rogers (1962) defined innovation -“an idea, practice, or object perceived as new” carefully studied new innovations in:hybrid

28、corn, television, manufacturing and medicineconcluded that “new ideas tend to follow a pattern in entering society” i.e. how they “diffuse” into society32the innovation adoption decision-making processthere are five stages in the process to adopt an innovation.knowledge an individual understands wha

29、t it is, how it works, and why it works. (cognitive)persuasion an individual forms a favorable or an unfavorable attitude toward the innovation. (affective)decision an individual engages in activities that lead to a choice to adopt or reject an innovation.implementation an individual puts an innovat

30、ion to use.confirmation an individual seeks reinforcement for the innovation decision already made.diffusion of innovation, rogers. 198333diffusion of innovation(rogers,1995)stages of adoption:awareness - the individual is exposed to the innovation but lacks complete information about it interest -

31、the individual becomes interested in the new idea and seeks additional information about it evaluation - individual mentally applies the innovation to his present and anticipated future situation, and then decides whether or not to try it trial - the individual makes full use of the innovationadopti

32、on - the individual decides to continue the full use of the innovation34the adoption process many individuals play a role many factors impact the rate of adoption leaders in adoption not always in “traditional” leadership roles35innovation characteristics observability the degree to which the result

33、s of an innovation are visible to potential adopters relative advantage the degree to which the innovation is perceived to be superior to current practice compatibility the degree to which the innovation is perceived to be consistent with socio-cultural values, previous ideas, and/or perceived needs

34、 trialability the degree to which the innovation can be experienced on a limited basis complexity the degree to which an innovation is difficult to use or understand.36adopter categoriespeople fall into one of five categories of adopters or non-adopters.innovators venturesome, eager to try new ideas

35、. the innovator must be able to cope with the high degree of uncertainty about an innovation at the time they make the decision to adopt. they are risk takers and are willing to accept an occasional setback.early adopters respectable and are more integrated into the social system than are innovators

36、. this group includes the largest number of opinion leaders. these are the “people to check with” before using a new idea.early majority deliberate but adopt new ideas just before the average member of a social system. they seldom are viewed as opinion leaders.late majority skeptical and often make

37、a decision or adopt a new idea as an economic necessity or in response to pressure from peers or others.laggards traditional and offer almost no option to leadership. their focus is mostly on the past.diffusion of innovation, rogers. 198337successful diffusion depends on understanding how the needs

38、of adopters will change over time, and how adopters influence each otherearlymajority34%latemajority34%earlyadopters13.5%16%2.5%innovatorslaggardsand nonadopters risk takingvisionaries(beta testers) super-informed mobile sophisticated little influenceon market visionaries progressive opinion leaders

39、 curious visible informed mobile patient withtesting phase pragmatists cautious attentive toearly adopters require muchinformationbefore adopting must work first time very suspicious hard to reachtimenumber of new adopters conservatives suspicious ofnew ideas look to precedinggroups forinformationca

40、n negatively influence other users if brought in too early38cumulative adoption curve the “s curve”bass curve three parameters : market potential m - the total number of people who will eventually use the product external influence p - mass media coverageinternal influence q - word-of-mouthbass form

41、ula: frank bass is a marketing professor currently at univ of texas - dallasbass, frank m. (1969) “a new product growth model for consumer durables” management science 13 (5): 215-2274041number of years to reach 50 percent penetration of u.s. households technology years newspapers 100+ telephone 70

42、phonograph 55 cable television 39 personal computer 17 color television 17 vcr 10 radio 9 black & white television 8 source: electronic industry association; u.s. dept of commerce42examples of s-curves in earning per share: microsoft & xerox 43factors affecting diffusion innovation characteristics i

43、ndividual characteristics social network characteristics others44individual characteristics innovativeness originally defined by rogers: the degree to which an individual is relatively earlier in adopting an innovation than other members of his social system modified & extended by hirschman (1980):

44、inherent / actualized novelty seeking creative consumer adoptive / vicarious innovativeness45other individual characteristics reliance on others as source of information (midgley & dowling) adopter threshold (e.g. valente) need-for-change / need-for-cognition (wood & swait, 2002)46network characteri

45、stics opinion leadership: number of nominations as source of information number of contacts within each adopter category (valente) complex structure47other possible factors: lyytinen & damsgaard (2001) social environment of diffusion of innovation marketing strategies employed institutional structur

46、es (e.g., government)48the bass diffusion modelmodel designed to answer the question:when will customers adopt a new product or technology?49assumptions of thebasic bass modeldiffusion process is binary (consumer either adopts, or waits to adopt)constant maximum potential number of buyers (n)eventua

47、lly, all n will buy the productno repeat purchase, or replacement purchasethe impact of the word-of-mouth is independent of adoption timeinnovation is considered independent of substitutesthe marketing strategies supporting the innovation are not explicitly included50adoption probability over timeti

48、me (t)cumulative probability of adoption up to time tf(t)introduction of product(a)time (t)density function: likelihood of adoption at time tf(t) =d(f(t)dt(b)1.051sales growth model for durables (the bass diffusion model)st=p remaining+q adopters potentialremaining potential innovationimitation effe

49、cteffectwhere:st=sales at time tp=“coefficient of innovation”q=“coefficient of imitation”# adopters =s0 + s1 + + st1remaining =total potential # adopters potential52parameters of the bass model in several product categoriesinnovationimitationproduct/parameter parameter technology (p)(q)b&w tv0.0280.

50、25color tv0.0050.84air conditioners0.0100.42clothes dryers0.0170.36water softeners0.0180.30record players0.0250.65cellular telephones0.0041.76steam irons0.0290.33motels0.0070.36mcdonalds fast food0.0180.54hybrid corn0.0391.01electric blankets0.0060.24a study by sultan, farley, and lehmann in 1990 su

51、ggests an average value of 0.03 for p and an average value of 0.38 for q.53technical specificationof the bass modelthe bass model proposes that the likelihood that someone in the population will purchase a new product at a particular time t given that she has not already purchased the product until

52、then, is summarized by the following mathematical.formulationlet:l(t): likelihood of purchase at t, given that consumer has not purchased until tf(t): instantaneous likelihood of purchase at time tf(t): cumulative probability that a consumer would buy the product bytime tonce f(t) is specified, then

53、 f(t) is simply the cumulative distribution of f(t), and from bayes theorem, it follows that:l(t) = f(t)/1f(t)(1)54technical specification of the bass model (contd)the bass model proposes that l(t) is a linear function:ql(t) = p + n(t)(2)nwherep = coefficient of innovation (or coefficient of externa

54、l influence)q = coefficient of imitation (or coefficient of internal influence)n(t) = total number of adopters of the product up to time tn = total number of potential buyers of the new productthen the number of customers who will purchase the product at time t is equal to nf(t) . from (1), it then

55、follows that:qnf(t) = p + n(t)1 n(t)(3)nnf(t) may be interpreted as the number of buyers of the product at time t = (t). likewise, nf(t ) is equal to the cumulative number of buyers of the product up to time t = n(t).55bass model contdnoting that n(t) = nf(t) is equal to the number of buyers at time

56、 t, and n(t) = nf(t) is equal to the cumulative number of buyers until time t, we get from (2):qnf(t) = p + n(t)1 n(t)(3)nafter simplification, this gives the basic diffusion equation for predicting new product sales:qn (t) = pn + (q p) n(t) n(t)2 (4)n56estimating the parameters of the bass model us

57、ing non-linear regressionan equivalent way to represent n(t) in the bass model is the following equation:qn(t) =p + n(t1) n n(t1)ngiven four or more values of n(t) we can estimate the three parameters of the above equation to minimize the sum of squared deviations.57estimating the parameters of the

58、bass model using regressionthe discretized version of the bass model is obtained from (4):n(t) = a + bn(t1) + cn 2(t1)a, b, and c may be determined from ordinary least squares regression. the values of the model parameters are then obtained as follows:b b2 4acn=2c ap=nq=p + bto be consistent with th

59、e model, n 0, b 0, and c 0.58forecasting using the bass modelroom temperature control unitcumulative quartersales salesmarket size = 16,000(at start price)0001160160innovation rate = 0.0144251,118(parameter p)81,2344,678 121,64611,166imitation rate = 0.411655515,106(parameter q)207815,890 24915,987i

60、nitial price = $40028115,999 32016,000final price = $40036016,000example computationsn(t) = pn + (qp) n(t1) q n(t1) 2/nsales in quarter 1= 0.01 16,000 + (0.410.01) 0 (0.41/16,000) (0)2 = 160sales in quarter 2= 0.01 16,000 + (0.40) 160 (0.41/16,000) (160)2 = 223.3559factors affecting therate of diffu