ChapterDecisionMakingbyIndividualsPPT教学课件

1、The Decision-Making ProcessProgrammed Decision - a simple, routine matter for which a manager has an established decision ruleNonprogrammed Decision - a new, complex decision that requires a creative solution第1页/共43页The Decision-Making ProcessRecognize the problem andthe need for a decisionIdentify

2、the objective ofthe decisionGather and evaluate dataand diagnose the situationList and evaluatealternatives第2页/共43页The Decision-Making ProcessSelect the bestcourse of actionImplementthe decisionGatherfeedbackFollow up第3页/共43页Models of Decision-Makinga timely decision that meets a desired objective a

3、nd is acceptable to those individuals affected by itGarbage Can ModelBounded Rationality ModelRational Model第4页/共43页1. The outcome will be completely rational2. The decision maker uses a consistent system of preferences to choose the best alternative3. The decision maker is aware of all alternatives

4、4. The decision maker can calculate the probability of success for each alternativeRational ModelRationality - a logical,step-by-step approachto decision making, with athorough analysis ofalternatives and theirconsequences第5页/共43页1. Managers suggest the first satisfactory alternative2. Managers reco

5、gnize that their conception of the world is simple3. Managers are comforable making decisions without determining all the alternatives4. Managers make decisions by rules of thumb or heuristicsBounded Rationality ModelBounded Rationality - a theory that suggests that there are limits upon how rationa

6、l a decision maker can actually be 第6页/共43页Garbage Can Model - a theory that contendsthat decisions in organizations are random and unsystematicGarbage Can ModelProblemsSolutionsChoiceopportunitiesParticipantsFrom M.D. Cohen, J.G. March, and J.P. Olsen in Administrative Science Quarterly 17 (March 1

7、972) 1.25. Reprinted by permission of the Administrative Science Quarterly第7页/共43页The Quality, Timeliness, Acceptance, and Ethical Appropriateness of a Decision Influence its EffectivenessQualityEthicalAppropriatenessAcceptanceTimeliness+第8页/共43页A Managers Decision-Making Styles Will Influence the W

8、ay She Attacks ProblemsLeft-brain thinkers tend to valuetechnical/task issuesRight-brain thinkers tend to valuepeople/social issuesANALYTICA problem solver who analyzesalternatives and innovatesCONCEPTUALA socially oriented personwho sees the big pictureDIRECTIVEA rapid decision maker whoexpects res

9、ults and relies on rulesBEHAVIORALA person who needs affiliation and wants to helpothersHigh CognitiveComplexityLow CognitiveComplexity第9页/共43页Managers Take Six Steps in Making an Effective Decision Using the Rational Decision-Making ProcessANALYZE THE SITUATIONWhat are the key elements in the situa

10、tion?What constraints affect the decision?What resources are available?SET OBJECTIVESIs the problem stated clearly?Do people understand what they will work on?By what criteria will decision making be judged?SEARCH FOR ALTERNATIVESDo people involved in the problem make the decision?Have they sought c

11、omplete information?Do those with information make the decision?Do they use diversity to generate ideas?Are all ideas encouraged?第10页/共43页Six Steps (Cont.)EVALUATE THE ALTERNATIVESDo participants know that they are evaluating?Are criteria for assessment clear and understood?Are differences of opinio

12、n included in evaluation?Are some alternatives pilot tested?MAKE THE DECISIONDo employees know that they are making the decision?Are they aware if they are satisficing or optimizing?Do action plans fit with the decision?Are they committed to the decision?EVALUATE THE DECISIONAre responsibilities for

13、 data collection, analysis, and reporting clear?Is there a comprehensive evaluation plan?Is there an evaluation schedule?第11页/共43页Managers Can Ask These Questions When Evaluating ObjectivesRelevancePracticalityChallengeMeasurabilitySchedulabilityBalanceDo the objectives relate to and support the bas

14、ic purpose of the organization?Do the objectives recognize obvious constraints?Do the objectives provide a challenge for managers at all levels in the organization?Can managers quantify the objectives?Can managers monitor the objectives at interim points to ensure progress?Do the objectives provide

15、a proper balance on all activities, given organizational goals?CriteriaQuestions to Ask第12页/共43页(cont.)FlexibilityTimelinessTechnologyGrowthCost effectivenessAccountabilityAre the objectives sufficiently flexible or is the organization likely to find itself locked into a particular course of action?

16、Given the organizations environment , is this the proper time to adopt these objectives?Do the objectives fall within the boundaries of currenttechnological development?Do the objectives help the organization grow, not just survive?Do the objectives expected costs clearly outweigh their benefit?Can

17、managers assess the performance of those responsible for attaining the objectives?CriteriaQuestions to Ask第13页/共43页Problems Randomly Attach to Solutions in the “Garbage Can”Problem AProblem CSolution YSolution XProblem BSolution ZProblem ASolution X+SolutionsProblems第14页/共43页Gathering IdeasBrainstor

18、mingThe Nominal Group TechniqueThe Affinity DiagramThe Delphi MethodElectronic Meetings第15页/共43页BrainstormingTopicTake turns sharing ideasRecord each ideaNo comments/criticismsKeep the tempo movingOne idea per turnMembers may passKeep going until ideas are exhausted第16页/共43页Mangers Should Follow Thi

19、s Advice for Successful BrainstormingList all ideas.Do not Evaluate any ideas during the initial stages.Encourage creativity.Offer ideas related to those already listed.Ask each participant to offer a specific number (e.g. five to ten) of new ideas.Set a time for brainstorming.第17页/共43页Managers Use

20、an Affinity Diagram to Organize Brainstorming in a Group of EmployeesTHEMEWhy has the number ofdefects increased 10 timesin the past year?The employeeslack the right trainingQuality control procedures areinadequateThe productdesign is faultyMaterials receivedfrom suppliers havebeen defectiveEquipmen

21、t has notbeen repaired in atimely fashionTop management needsto reexamine workerstraining needs and findways to give them theright training for their jobs.第18页/共43页The Nominal Group Technique (Delbecq, Van de Ven and Gustafson, 1975)Silent idea generations, Round-robin sharing of ideas, Feedback to

22、the group, Explanatory group discussion, Individual re-assessment, and Mathematical aggregation of revised judgements. A generic name for face-to-face group techniques in which instructions are given to group members not to interact with each other except at specific steps in the process.第19页/共43页 A

23、ffinity DiagramDefinition: A group decision-making technique designed to sort a large number of ideas, process variables, concepts, and opinions into naturally related groups. These groups are connected by a simple concept.Purpose: To sort a list of ideas into groups.Guidelines:Insure ideas are desc

24、ribed with phrases or sentences. Minimize the discussion while sorting - discuss while developing the header cards.Aim for 5-10 groups. If one group is much larger than others, consider splitting it. 第20页/共43页How to Conduct an Affinity Sort:Clarify the list of ideas. Record them on small cards. Rand

25、omly lay out cards on table, flipchart, wall, etc. Sort the cards into similar groups in silence - based on your gut reaction. If you dont like the placement of a particular card - move it. Continue until consensus is reached. Create header cards consisting of a concise 3-5 word phrase description,

26、the unifying concept for the group. Place header card at top of group. Discuss the groupings and try to understand how the groups relate to each other. 第21页/共43页第22页/共43页Inquire if ideas are clarified. Use 3-5 words in the phrase on the header card to describe the group. If possible, have groupings

27、reviewed by non-team personnel. To sort, physically get up and gather around the area the cards are placed. Team members will ultimately reach agreement on placement - if for no other reason that exhaustion. Sorting begins when all team members are ready. If an idea fits in more that one category or

28、 group, after discussion, make a second card and place in both groups. Tips第23页/共43页Delphi TechniqueProblem statedQuestionnairesAnonymous & IndependentCompile resultsDistribute copies of resultsNew round beginsDoes not require physical presenceTime consuming第24页/共43页Electronic MeetingsHorseshoe-shap

29、ed tableUp to 50 participantsIssues are presentedResponses typedProjection screen displayAnonymity, honesty, & speed55% faster than traditionalLacks creditFastest typist gets there firstNo face-to-face interchange第25页/共43页Risk and the ManagerRisk aversion - the tendency to choose options that entail

30、 fewer risks and less uncertaintyRisk takers accept greater potential for loss tolerate greater uncertainty more likely to make risky decisionsEvidence: Successful Managers Take Risks第26页/共43页Escalation of Commitment Why it occurs humans dislike inconsistency optimism control How to deal with it spl

31、it responsibility for decisions provide individuals with a graceful exit have groups make the initial decisionThe tendency to continue tocommit resources to a losingcourse of action第27页/共43页Cognitive StyleCognitive Style - an individuals preference for gathering information and evaluating alternativ

32、esJungian theory offers a way of understanding andappreciating differences among individuals.第28页/共43页Jungs Cognitive StyleStyleSensing/thinkingSensing/feelingIntuiting/thinkingIntuiting/feelingIdeal OrganizationFacts/ Impersonal ControlFacts & Org. relationshipsBroad issues/ Impersonal & idealServe

33、 humankind/General valuesSTSFNTNF第29页/共43页Z Problem-Solving ModelLook at the factsand detailsCan it beanalyzedobjectively?What alternativesdo the factssuggest?What impactwill it have onthose involved?Sensing Intuition Thinking FeelingFigure from Type Talk at Work by Otto Kroeger and Janet M. Thuesen

34、. Copyright 1992 by Otto Kroegerand Janet M. Thuesen. Used by permission of Dell Publishing, a division of Random House. Inc.第30页/共43页Influences on Decision-MakingIntuition - fast, positive force in decision making utilized at a level below consciousness, involves learned patterns of information Cre

35、ativity - a process influenced by individual and organizational factors that results in the production of novel and useful ideas, products, or both第31页/共43页Four Stages of Creative Process Preparation - experience/ opportunity to build knowledge base Incubation - reflective, often unconscious thought

36、 Illumination - insight into problem Verification - thinking, sharing, testing the decision第32页/共43页Influences on Creativity Individual examples Cognitive Processes Divergent Thinking Associational Abilities Personality Factors breadth of interests high energy self confidence Organizational ex. Flex

37、ible organization structure Participative decision-making Quality, supportive relationships with supervisors第33页/共43页Organizations Can Facilitate Creative Decision-Making Reward creativity Allow employees to fail Make work more fun Provide creativity training Vary work groups (internal/external) Enc

38、ourage creative stimuli (music, art, etc.) 第34页/共43页Participative Decision Making Organizational Foundations Participative, supportive organizational culture Team-oriented work design Individual Prerequisites Capability to become psychologically involved in participative activities Motivation to act

39、 autonomously Capacity to see the relevance of participation for ones own well-beingIndividuals who are affectedby decisions influence themaking of those decisions第35页/共43页Two Brains, Two Cognitive StylesLeft HemisphereRight HemisphereVerbalSequential, temporal, digitalLogical, analyticRationalWeste

40、rn thoughtNonverbal, visuospatialSimultaneous, spatial,analogicalGestalt, syntheticIntuitiveEastern thoughtIdeal = “brain-lateralized” making use ofeither or both sides, depending on situationFrom Left Brain, Right Brain by Springer and Deutsch 1989, 1985, 1981 by Sally Springer and Georg Deutsch. U

41、sed with permission by W.H. Freeman and Company第36页/共43页Group Decision-Making Role of synergy - a positive force in groups that occurs when group members stimulate new solutions to problems through the process of mutual influence and encouragement in the group Role of social decision schemes - simple rules used to determine final group decisions (prediction 80% correct) Majority WinsTruth WinsTwo-thirds Majority WinsFirst-shift rule第37页/共43页Group Decision-Making1) more knowl