HND 远古案例GU3.2

1、.仅供参考，照抄模版必挂。一切以老师要求为主。2.1 Project Plan: a project plan and schedule for writing report 2.1.1 Objectives for gathering informationThe Economic crisis of 2008 leads an economic recession throughout the whole world, especially several important indicators of economic become downturn. This crisis rapid

2、ly evolved into a global credit crisis, deflation and sharp declines in various stock indexes, and large reductions in the market value of stock. Many experts predicated that the Britain consumer spending would slow to only 0.2 percent, and investment will also drop in recent two-year. Under these w

3、orse surroundings, investing becomes more risk. Therefore, I must use the 100, 000 to invest suitable shares at the appropriate time with appropriate price. Firstly, I should collect enough information to help me confirm four shares portfolio. In this part, I must clear the background information to

4、 each company, understand the strategic management of them and analyze their financial reports. Then, I will use some fundamental analysis methods to help me calculate some ratios to make sure their share price have the large space to increase. Secondly, I should compare the same sector companies an

5、d clearly know the performance and fluctuation about each share. In addition, I will record the macro economic information to know the UK and international market performance in general. In order to know the macro economic, I must find the inflation rate, unemployment rate, and exchange rate recordi

6、ng over the 3 years. At the same time, I should also pay attention to some latest new, including the positive and negative. Because of them can affect the shares fluctuation. 2.1.2 Project plan for developingIn order to submit a perfect report, plentiful and appropriate information should be collect

7、ed in this part. I will spend 3 weeks to finish this part, which is from 16th.Feb to 7th.Mar. In this implementation part, it can be included the following stages:Stage 1: I will record the shares portfolio detail information. It requires me to collect the open and close prices for each share at fir

8、st. Then, I should record the sector index, FTSE 100, All Share Indices and other information weekly from the website. Through this, I can clearly know the performance and fluctuation for the four shares. And understand the UK stock market in general at the same time. Stage 2: Then I will collect re

9、levant materials about the company, macro economic performance and industries information. As well as, I should pay attention to some latest news, which involved positive and negative factors that can affect the shares prices.Stage 3: I will categorize the collected information and put them in order

10、. It will help me to find appropriate information quickly. Stage 4: After having categorized information, it is time for me to analyze information and then write the report for developing. It is significant for the whole plan.Stage 5: The useful information should be annexed and labeled in the end o

11、f the developing. Stage 6: I will check the developing part and then hand in them at last.2.1.3 Schedule for developing reportThe whole developing report will requires me cost three weeks. The 1st week, I will collect the information. The 2nd week, I am going to analyze the collected information. Th

12、e last week, I will write the developing part. The following table shows the detail arrangement for the developing part. Table-1 Developing part schedule Week Time DateTask1st week 2 days16thFeb.-17th.Feb.2009Collect company information for each share2 days18th.Feb-19thFeb.2009Investigate sectors or

13、 industries information for each share3 days20th.Feb-22nd.Feb.2009Collect the macro economic information for UK2nd week2 days23rd.Feb -24thFeb.2009Analyze the relevant company information about affecting the shares fluctuation2 days25th.Feb-26th.Feb.2009Analyze collated information for sector and in

14、dustries3 days27th.Feb-28th.Feb 2009Trough collected information know the UK stock market in general1day1st.Mar.2009 Summing-up information3th week3 days2nd.Mar 4th.Mar.2009Write first draft. The first day write the project planThe following day write the objectiveThe last day write the schedule 1 d

15、ay5th.Mar.2009Write second draft1 day6th.Mar.2009Take all information annexed and labelled1 day7th.Mar.2009Amend and check the developing partNote: Recording the relevant price, sector index for four shares and FSTE 100, all share index will be collected every week 2.2 Issues being considered for re

16、searchThere are many factors can influence the shares performance. Consider those factors become very important. The below investigate and analyze will help me know each share clearly. 2.2.1 Simple introduction of the companies selectedLAND Securities Real Estate Investment Trust (LAND.L)Land Securi

17、ties has a huge amount of real estate all over the UK. It is indeed one of the biggest owners in cities, especially city centers. Land Securities is a leading Real Estate Investment Trust. His national portfolio of commercial property includes some of the UKs best-known shopping centers and landmark

18、 buildings in London. They are at the forefront of urban renaissance through England multi-billion pound development program, transforming regional city centers and key sites in Central London.British American Tobacco (BATS.L)British American Tobacco undertakes some 800,000 cross-border transactions

19、 a year involving raw materials, equipment and finished products. Thereby, BATS.L is one of the biggest companies in tobacco industry. It has had very good performance in 2008, with increased profit and share growth in many markets. British American Tobacco is always committed to maintaining high st

20、andards of corporate with governance. It also has 42 % of Reynolds American Inc, which owns the Kools and GPC brands, and the Canadian leader in the sector, Imperial Tobacco. With thousand of employees, BATS.L is an empire. On top of its vast distribution network, it manages tobacco plantations, not

21、ably in Poland and in several African countries.Shire Pharmaceutical Group Plc (SHP.L)Shire is the leading specialty biopharmaceutical company that focuses on meeting the needs of the specialist physician. Shire focuses its business on attention deficit and hyperactivity disorder, human genetic ther

22、apies and gastrointestinal diseases. Shire already has a wide range of products on the market and continues to use its search and development expertise to ensure that it can make more products available for these medically challenging diseases in the future. As a company, Shire has obtained many sig

23、nificant breakthroughs on HIV and AIDS therapies. This enables them to gain considerable expertise in these areas and build long term relationships with specialist prescribers.Liberty International Real Estate Investment Trust (LII.L)Liberty International is a highly specialized business focused on

24、quality retail property, with a very strong market position in UK regional shopping centers, which constitute 78 per cent of their overall investment properties, with retail overall comprising 93 per cent: They have interests in four of the UKs eight out-of-town super-regional centers with a combine

25、d value of 3.1 billion while in-town centers in prime city locations amount to 3.2 billion. They also have an enviable geographic spread across the UK including major cities such as Manchester, Glasgow, Newcastle, Nottingham and Cardiff as well as a strong presence in the South East of England throu

26、gh four of our major shopping centers, with an aggregate value of 2.4 billion, including our flagship Lakeside, Thurrock.2.2.2 Main issues considered for researchIn order to know the each share fluctuation clearly, I must investigate and analyze the background information, which include the economic

27、 environment, industry environment, company condition, stock price as well as other relevant information. (1) Economic environmentThe macro economic environment may be mainly influence the defined company. Accordingly, it is important for me to investigate the external environment. UnemploymentTable

28、-2 UK unemploymentYearJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec20082.502.502.502.502.602.602.702.802.903.103.303.6020072.902.902.802.802.702.702.602.602.602.602.502.5020062.802.902.902.902.903.003.003.003.003.002.902.90U.K. unemployment rose at the second- fastest pace since 1991. In 2008 December, the w

29、orsening recession lead thousand companies to cut jobs. Office for National Statistics has revealed that the number of people out of work in the UK rose by 77,900 to 1.16 million, which represented the highest level in over a decade. Till now, the pace of job cuts across almost all areas of the econ

30、omy has risen even more sharply in the opening months of 2009 with employers in the retail, manufacturing, construction and financial services sectors. The unemployment rate of 6.3 per cent, although still lagging behind most of the UKs main continental European rivals, was the highest level since 1

31、999. UK economic experts emphasize solving unemployment is become more and more important in the following year.Balance of TradeGraph-1 UK balance of trade(Source:balance of trade)United Kingdom is the worlds fifth-largest trading nation, highly dependent on foreign trade. Recently, the UK trade def

32、icit rose in November as exports of goods fell sharply, in a sign of the threat posed by collapsing global demand to the British economy. Both imports and exports fell as domestic and international demand weakened amid a global recession that is hitting most of Britains main trading partners. The go

33、ods trade deficit hit 8.3bn up from a downwardly revised 7.6bn in October, the highest level since records began in 1697. In November 2008, total exports of goods fell by 5.8 per cent, amid a sharp drop in exports to countries outside the EU, while total imports fell by 1.8 per cent.Interest rate Gr

34、aph-2 UK interest rate(Source:mbol=interest rate)Interest rates have fallen significantly in 2008. Due to the global economic crisis of 2008, worldwide central banks coordinate cut in interest rate to stimulate the economic. On 4 December 2008, the Bank of England cut interest rates from 3% to 2%, w

35、hich amounts to the lowest level since 1951. Recent falls in sterling may help exporters to limit the impact of the global slowdown. Some market participants believe that economic conditions are now so strained that an even larger cut would have been warranted. As the Monetary Policy Committee, they

36、 want try to avoid inflation slipping below their inflation target of 1-3%. Base interest rates could fall to 1.5% in 2009. Monetary Policy Committee may slash interest rate to stimulate household spending & investment into the economy to balance the economic. Many experts believe that 2009 is likel

37、y to see even lower rates.GDPGraph-3 UK GDP growth rate(Source:GDP)Britain fell deeper into recession during the final three months of 2008 as the economy contracted by 1.5 per cent. The rapid decline in UK, economic growth in the fourth quarter of 2008 was the worst performance since the second qua

38、rter of 1980. Economists on average expect UK is in the middle of steep downturn, and confirmed the economy grew at its slowest annual pace for sixteen years. Output is unlikely to climb back to last years levels until late 2011 or 2012(2) Industrial environmentUnderstand the each company industrial

39、 environment that can help me recognize the four companies in general. Thereby, industrial environment is also essential to be considered. Real Estate Investment Trust (R.E.I.T) diversified Industry In my share portfolio, both LAND.L and LII.L lies in the same industry- R.E.I.T diversified. In UK, t

40、here are 52 companies in R.E.I.T diversified Industry. The Plum Creek Timber Co. Inc, Rayonier Inc and National Retail Properties, Inc are three biggest companies in this sector around UK. Real estate development in the UK has changed in recent years. As a whole, the house price continues to fall si

41、nce the economic crisis of 2008. However, some retail real estate investment trust claim they keep healthy revenue gross in despite of the weak economy. For example, National Retail Properties Inc. said its fourth-quarter results grew 18 percent as turnover. On the other hand, the timberland price k

42、eeps a slower pace of growth, but it is growth nonetheless. The value of timberland rose 5% in UK market. In 2007, timber appreciation was a towering 15%.For Land securities and Liberty International, they are belongs to rapidly accelerating industry growth in industry life cycle. Compared with othe

43、rs, the shares price of Liberty International and Land securities are at relatively high level. Both of them have stable capital structure and begin to extension its business. Their productions begin from single, costliness to diverse and low price separately. Land securities is the maker leader in

44、large scale shopping center and the owner of other prime retail assets. However, Liberty International was built up in 1987 and was listing in London Stock Exchange in 1992. His gross retail income keeps higher increase in recent decade. Drug manufacturersShire in biopharmaceutical has higher potent

45、ial to develop. The company has a strategic focus on treatment for HIV, hepatitis B and human genetic therapies since 2006. In HIV infection and AIDS treatment area, there are few competitive pressures and minority entrants. This external surrounding will bring many opportunities to Shire. Furthermo

46、re, the development environment of HIV infection and AIDS treatment is very bright. The statistic shows that the number of people gets diverse HIV will increase in the following decade and the market needs for HIV will be continued growth in 2009. The company believes they can obtain breakthrough on

47、 innovation in HIV medicines, because of the profit that can be made in the whole world markets. Cigarettes In UK there are more than 40 companies in cigarettes industry. The 5 biggest companies include: Philip Morris, British American Tobacco, Altria Group Inc, Lorillard Inc and Reynolds American.

48、Both of then, the capital is above $10 billion. Recently, governments rules on smoking are increasing restrict, which lead cigarette makers have upped prices and wholesaler discounts are also cut down as demand drops. For example, federal tax on cigarettes will raise from 39 cents a pack to almost $

49、1.01 on April 1 in American. Many experts claim the cost of buying tobacco products is going up in 2009. In 2008 world tobacco industry, Kodiaks market share in shipments declined 0.4 percentage point to 4 percent. Its cigarette-sales volume dropped 8.4 percent in 2008, compared with a 3.3 percent d

50、ecline in the overall industry. Reynolds cigarette-market share fell 0.9 percentage point during 2008 to 28.1 percent. However, Camels market share increased 0.3 percentage point to 8 percent and Pall Malls market share increased 0.5 percentage point to 2.6 percent.(3) Company conditionsProfit comes

51、 from company performance. The company strategy decision making, dividend, capital structure and other useful information is very critical. Analyzing company condition will help me know each shares fluctuation clearly.Land Securities R.E.I.T (LAND.L)Land securities has 3 main business, they are reta

52、il portfolio, London portfolio and trillium. It includes shopping centers, retail warehouses, and long-term property outsourcing. They own 27 shopping centers and 27 retail parks, more than 260 million shopper visits per year and long-term contracts with gross income of 757.8m. Their three businesse

53、s performed well throughout the year in 2008 and demonstrated their market leadership credentials. The picture below shows the LAND.L mainly income sources in 2008. Graph-4 LAND.L mainly income sources in 2008 (Source: LAND.L annual report)LAND.Ls financing strategy is to maintain an appropriate net

54、 debt to equity ratio (gearing) to ensure that asset level performance is translated into enhanced returns for shareholders while maintaining an appropriate risk reward balance to accommodate changing financial and operating market cycles. The company has now generated compound annual growth of 14.6

55、% since 2004. The basic earnings per share were 288.80p, compared to earnings per share of 153.59p in the prior year, the change is predominantly. The dividend of LAND.L was recommending a final dividend payment of 16.0p per share. Taken together with the three quarterly dividends of 16.0p, their fu

56、ll year dividend will be 64.0p per share, compare with 2007: 53.0p, there is a 20.8% increase. Recently, the company has provided the second quarterly dividend of 16.5p per share on 12 January 2009 to shareholders. Look at this table above, which demonstrate dividends and earrings per share in recen

57、t year.Graph-5 LAND.L dividend information(Source: LAND.L annual report)British American Tobacco (BATS.L)British American Tobacco is indeed a first range harvester, producer and distributor of tobacco in the world. They are committed to maintaining high standards of corporate with governance. Innova

58、tion is central to their approach to building brands that evolve and offer consumers relevant products to meet their changing needs. Their vision is to achieve leadership of the global tobacco industry in order to create shareholder value.Their strategy to deliver their vision is based on Growth, Productivity, Responsibility and building a Winning Organization.They has four Global Drive Brands - Dunhill, Kent, Lucky St