The international experience of financial crisis and reality think

1、 the international experience of financial crisis and reality think content abstract: since 90 time, the financial crisis that erupts often brought huge harm to each country economy. the article reviews above all and induced each country erupts the reason of financial crisis, sum up its experience a

2、nd lesson, the likelihood in integrating system of our country banking next causes the ingredient that the crisis produces, to our country prevents and resisting financial crisis undertook be discussinged benignantly, final to table a proposal. keyword: financial crisis experience and homiletic real

3、ity thinkopen financial industry stage by stage as economic globalization and our country, the financial system of our country more and more make world banking system impartible cut one share. however the financial crisis that produces often is clear however since 20 centuries wear without by accide

4、nt declare publicly the harm sex of financial crisis. especially to us a such big countries, financial crisis in a sense may be a disastrous result. although our country heretofore returns have not to be in,produce financial crisis, but the economic structure that this does not mean our country and

5、financial system have how perfect, and more but end is our country to close locatedly before condition. in fact, abroad erupts about china in recent years the argument of financial crisis never has stopped almost. for instance pulls nicholas enlighten think, financial crisis of china is already matu

6、re, what lack exclusively is the fuse that causes the crisis to erupt in the round (wu chuan fu, 2003) . have more “ far east economy is commented on “ published an article to think 2002 “ chinese banking system is destroyed in the trend “ . although these viewpoints have its jumping-off place each,

7、 but interior of chinese economic system is existing a lot of elements that cause financial crisis are the fact that does not dispute however. accordingly, open in finance what already made a trend is current, from experience of the derive in the financial crisis that other country produces, be on g

8、uard financial crisis and enhance oneself to resist the ability of financial crisis more pressing and it is important to appear. one, academic overviewabout financial crisis, more authoritative definition is you gede simisi (1982) those who give out, it is all or major finance index - short-term int

9、erest rate, asset (asset, negotiable securities, estate, land) the price, business goes broke number and financial orgnaization close down several - quick, brief worsen with what exceed cycle. its feature is to be based on expect asset price fall and a large number of casting to give capital fund of

10、 praedial or long-term banking, trade a money. financial crisis can be divided wait for a type for monetary crisis, debt crisis, bank crisis. and in recent years financial crisis more and more present the crisis that gives some kind of mixture form. (one) the financial crisis of marx is academicmarx

11、 the theory about financial crisis is to be in what critically li jia pursues “ scale “ of yi of academic, sa “ market balanced rule “ build on the foundation. marx points out, monetary occurrence makes the buying and selling of commodity is mixed on time the possibility that depart appears on the s

12、pace, bring about money and commodity as a result change process occurrence uncertainty, and the money regards the function that pays a means as the possibility that going up objectively to be able to produce debt to pay the crisis again; accordingly, the independent movement value that the key of t

13、he possibility that causes financial crisis and economic crisis depends on commodity and money differring severally is characteristic. and want commodity, money to exist only, economic crisis is inevitable, and can be behaved above all be financial crisis. marx points out further, “once the socialit

14、y of labor pledges expression is the money of commodity to exist, behave thereby be in the thing besides actual production for, independent monetary crisis or the monetary crisis that turn as real crisis acuteness, it is inevitable. “ visible, marx is monetary banking crisis cent is two sort model:

15、the monetary banking crisis that accompanies economic crisis to happen and independent monetary banking crisis. the financial crisis that accompanies economic crisis basically is with the market competition, capital is accumulated and the element such as credit development is actual condition, and i

16、ndependent monetary banking crisis is the result with financial system disorder interior. at the same time marx emphasized bank credit particularly the action in alleviation and aggravate banking crisis. as a whole, marx thinks financial crisis is mix with overproduction finance is superfluous for t

17、he condition, performance pays the crisis for the liquidity crisis of enterprise and bank, debt, but its are monetary crisis substantially. (2) financial crisis of the west is academicinchoate more influential financial crisis theory is by fisher (1933) the debt that raise - deflationary theory. fis

18、her thinks, in economic dilate process, the addition of investment basically is to pass bank credit to come true. this meeting causes a money to increase, thereby prices rises; and prices rises to be helpful for debtor again, accordingly credit can expand further, until “ excessive and indebted “ co

19、ndition, namely liquid assets cant the debt that pay off expires, the debt that causes chain as a result - deflationary process, and this process often is with extensive insolvency end. on the theoretical foundation of fisher, minsky (1963) put forward “ finance is not stable “ academic, tobin (1980

20、) put forward “ bank system is crucial “ academic, kindleberger (1978) put forward “ excessive trade “ academic, m.h.wolfson (1996) year put forward “ asset price fall “ academic, the liability that admitted fisher from different respect severally - deflationary theory. 70 time are the following fin

21、ancial crisis erupts oftener and oftener, and often arise at the form of real economy crisis in order to become independent. on this foundation, financial crisis theory also tends maturity is changed gradually. divide roughly to 90 time from 70 time for 3 phase. the financial crisis model of the fir

22、st phase is by p.krugman (1979) put forward, try to perfect and develop by r.flood and p.garber, thinking to be not coordinated between macroscopical economic policy and exchange rate system is the cause that causes financial crisis; model of crisis of banking of the 2nd phase is by with m.obstfeld

23、(1994, 1996) for the delegate, basically introduce anticipate an element, right government and private between undertake dynamic rich play chess is analysed, because anticipate the element exists,emphasize financial crisis from facilitating property and economic base variable to producing the main e

24、ffect of financial crisis. 1997 after asian banking crisis, financial crisis manage comes by development the 3rd phase. a lot of scholars jump out the traditional macroscopical economy such as policy of system of monetary policy, exchange rate, finance, public policy analyses limits, begin to analys

25、e financial crisis from field of information of financial intermediary, asymmetry. have the representative moral risk model that offers like krugman(1998) among them, the core effect that the moral risk that emphasizes financial intermediary has in bringing about excessive venture capital investment

26、 to form asset bubble to change subsequently; liquidity crisis model (j.sachs, 1998) , side overweight explains the mechanism that financial crisis forms from the instability of financial system oneself; "twin crisis " (kaminsky&reinhart, 1998) , consider to some connection originally

27、between banking crisis and monetary crisis from respect of a case of a physically strong patient running a high fever or suffering from such disorders as stasis of blood. 2, the international experience of financial crisis and lessonlook from the history, inchoate more typical banking crisis has dut

28、ch “ tulip is enthusiastic “ , the mixixibi of the nanhai bubble of england, france the great depression 1929 waits bubble and united states a moment. because length place is restricted, the article reviews the great banking crisis that 20 centuries produce since 90 time only, try to find out the co

29、mmon element that brings about financial crisis to happen from which, think our country prevents financial crisis to offer draw lessons from. (one) 90 time altogether produced big financial crisis 5 times, be as follows according to time order: 1.1992 - the european currency crisis 1993at the beginn

30、ing of 90 time, two heart are amalgamative. to expand economy of region of the eastpart part, germany comes at raising its discount rate on june 16, 1992 8.75 . result mark exchange rate begins to rise, what cause mechanism of european exchange rate to be as long as 1 year thereby is queasy. financi

31、al disturbance erupts one after another, pound and italian lira are forced to exit mechanism of european exchange rate. european currency crisis appears in process of unifinication of european economy currency. from apparently look, because germany raises discount place to cause alone,be, but its ar

32、e deep administrative levels reason is the european union is not coordinated of policy of money of each member home products, thereby from go up at all the requirement that violated associated floating rate to make, and do not coordinate of macroscopical economic policy the difference that with euro

33、pean union interior economy develops each member nation is linked together cheek by jowl. 2.1994 - the mexican banking crisis 1995. on december 20, 1994, mexico announces suddenly to be opposite than all alone the fluctuant extent of dollar exchange rate will be enlarged to 15 , because economy is m

34、edium accumulate contradiction for a long time, this action sparks market confidence crisis, result people in succession undersell compares all alone, at the beginning of 1995, devalue than all alone 30 . subsequently the stock market also drops immediately. devalue to cause the inflation of the inp

35、ut again considerably than all alone, such, to stabilize a currency, mexico raises interest rate considerably, result home demand decreases, the enterprise closes down in great quantities, unemployed leap. in international the effort of aid and mexican government falls, financial crisis of mexico be

36、gan to alleviate later 1995. the main reason of mexican banking crisis has 3: the first, debt dimensions is giant, the structure is maladjusted; the 2nd, often the project lasts adverse balance of trade, reserve assets is insufficient as a result, pay off ability drops; the 3rd, the need that inflex

37、ible exchange rate mechanism cannot get used to economy to develop. 3.1997 - the asian banking crisis 1998asian banking crisis is the domino effect that thailand money devalues quickly to be formed in asian area. of the length of the wide, duration of the limits that this financial crisis place affe

38、cts, influence it is the history mostly infrequent, created southeast asia state not only collect city, stock market queasy, large quantities of finance orgnaizations close down, unemployment increases, economic depression, and still spread to world other area, caused serious effect to global econom

39、y. asian banking crisis involves a lot of different countries, each country erupts the reason of the crisis also is distinguished somewhat. however the happening of asian banking crisis is accidental anything but, different country is existing a lot of common elements that cause financial crisis gen

40、eration, be like macroscopical economy unbalance, financial system is weak, capital market is opened with monitoring, the money is exchangeable do not coordinate with money market development wait for a problem (li jianjun, tian guangning, 1998) . 4.1998 - the russia banking crisis 1999get crisis of

41、 southeast asia banking affect, russia money market is in all the time after issueing defeat considerably summer 1997 not steady state, to may 1998, erupted eventually an unprecedented big shock, the stock market is immersed in the crisis, ruble is sufferred devalue badly pressure. russia banking cr

42、isis is the comprehensive report of crisis of russia politics, economy, society, be called “ russia syndrome “ . look from exterior element, because,be on one hand 1997 the influence of asian banking crisis, because world oil price drops,be on the other hand bring about its balance of payments to wo

43、rsen, finance revenue decreases. but investigate its are essential, domestic political situation is queasy, economy is long-term stagnant, financial system is diseased, external debt structure is unreasonable the reason that is deep administrative levels. 5.1999 - the brazilian banking crisis 2000on

44、 january 7, 1999, si jila of brazilian rice accept this because exchequer is dried up,the city declares this state, inside 90 days insolvent owe federally the debt of 15.4 billion dollar. this is brought about brazilian stock market weighs defeat that day 6% the left and right sides, price of brazil

45、ian government bond also steeps fall 44% , lei yaer goes weak continuously, central bank president is in 3 weeks inside for two times easy person. lei yaer is right of the dollar collect valence to issue defeat one after another, the stock market drops one after another. “sang baxuan wind “ at once

46、is blown to asia, europe and north america, pounded latin america country directly, the capital market of the country such as europe, asia. the exterior reason of brazilian banking crisis basically is to suffer asia and influence of russia banking crisis to bring about international trade environmen

47、t to worsen, and its interior reason is public debt and public deficit expand increasingly, international trade is long-term adverse balance of trade, the result of a variety of element action such as occurrence error of macroscopical economic policy. a few times from this financial crisis can see f

48、inancial crisis actually with respect to the sword as amounting to makelisi, hang on each country head constantly, just be descend on different country head in different moment just. can say, the financial crisis of different inside global limits level has year after year almost. in fact, erupted on

49、ce more 2001 argentine banking crisis, the frequent sex of crisis of this shows banking. typical financial crisis has the following characteristics since 20 centuries: (1) . infectivity; (2) . abrupt sex; (3) . ruinous; (4) . frequent sex. taking one with another, the outbreak of financial crisis is

50、 an a variety of elements the result of joint action. from the point of the incline to of development, financial system is internal more and more the direct matter that becomes financial crisis to erupt. however macroscopical economy structure is maladjusted, rigid exchange rate system, weak financi

51、al system, unreasonable external debt structure often makes the soil that brews financial crisis, also be the common cause that causes financial crisis a few times this. (2) the experience of financial crisis and lessonfinancial crisis erupts the addition of frequency offerred main experience and le

52、sson for our country. have the following roughly: 1. implements bouncy exchange rate system. to one country economy, can choose the floating rate that decides by the market and the fixed exchange rate that intervene by the central bank roughly. compare and character, fixed exchange rate is had in re

53、spect of microcosmic economy efficiency compare a dominant position, but the obligation that the central bank makes clear acceptance to maintain exchange rate to stabilize makes however the central bank must sacrifice the own advantageous position of monetary policy, and floating rate can make monet

54、ary policy can is opposite all sorts of concussion make response, bring thereby send relatively the macroscopical economy performance of actor. carry out fixed exchange rate to make however be not however mean absolutely fixed name exchange rate, and ought to trends adjusts the tendency that develop

55、s with reflecting economy. the fact proves, if the pressure with fluctuant exchange rate cannot try to dissolve with active means, release with the means of the crisis necessarily. it is with mexico and thailand exemple, rigid exchange rate system cannot reflect the trend with real fluctuant exchang

56、e rate more and more, the pressure that secures exchange rate thereby is greater and greater, the result falls in the concussion of adventurer, foreign exchange reserve can drop and cause market confidence crisis. 2. comes to help to international would rather cannot hold hopeexterior loan aid often

57、 is considered as the most effective oppose one of crisis measure. outside coming from imf to wait, ministry loan comes to help be helpful for stabilizing currency value, the economy that restores crisis happening country grows, but the play need that its organized a structure to decide its function

58、 is premise with seldom figuring national interest. the difference that imf behaves in mexican banking crisis and asian banking crisis showed this, and this is the crisis alleviates two actually time is giant one of main reasons of difference. in addition, the loan requirement of imf often is compar

59、ed slashing, can be cost with interest of sacrificial part state even, and accessary long argy-bargy time, this is very adverse to be in the country in the crisis. and this actually namely malaysia premier the reason that mahadier has auxed would rather impoverished day also does not recourse to imf. accordingly, to in financial crisis the following international comes to help to should not offer too much hope. the external debt dimensions with appropriate 3. and