发展中国家对外直接投资的决定因素【外文翻译】

1、本科毕业设计（论文）外 文 翻 译the determinants of direct foreign investment in developing countriesthe participation of developing countries in the total inflows of direct foreign investment (fdi) has varied considerably over the last 25 years, increasing from 15% in 1980 to 46% in 1982, leveling off at slightly

2、 over 20% during the last four years. it must be pointed out, however, that the motives behind these international capital flows are still substantially different than those related to the inflows of fdi to developing countries, in spite of the changes that have taken place over the last decades. fo

3、r example, the search for agricultural or mineral resources is much less important today than it was at the beginning of the 20th century.on the other hand, the current movement of these flows is extremely complex, and is subject to a wide variety of factors related to the competitive environment in

4、 which the firms operate, to their specific characteristics, and to economic factors in the home and host countries.the objective of this article is to estimate, based on panel data, the main determinants of fdi in developing countries. as shall be seen, factors such as the size and rate of growth o

5、f the product, the availability of skilled labor, the receptivity of foreign capital, the country risk rating, and the behavior of the stock market play important roles in fdi. furthermore, by applying the causality test in a panel data context, it was possible to demonstrate the non-existence of th

6、e widely held belief that direct foreign investment has a positive effect upon the product. however, the procedure used to test causality showed, to the contrary, that this phenomenon acts in the opposite sense, i.e., that generally it is the countrys product that affects direct foreign investment.o

7、ur study is structured as follows: in section 2 we provide a review of the theoretical literature dealing with the determinants of direct foreign investment. in section 3, we examine recent studies that analyze the relation between fdi and several economic factors. in section 4, we outline our model

8、 and the hypotheses to be tested, and present the results obtained (ver original). the results are then analyzed in section 5. in section 6 we test the causality relation between foreign investment and product. lastly, in section 7, we present the conclusions of our study.the determinants of fdi: th

9、eory overviewin this section, we review the theoretical literature dealing with the determinants of fdi. an aspect that stands out is that most of these studies emphasize factors that are specific to multinational firms, specifically those related to competition among the firms themselves and with l

10、ocal firms, with less attention being given to location factors.although the first theoretical studies of the determinants of fdi go back to adam smith, stuart mill and torrens, one of the first to address the issue was ohlin (1933). according to this author, direct foreign investment was motivated

11、mainly by the possibility of high profitability in growing markets, along with the possibility of financing these investments at relatively low rates of interest in the host country. other determinants were the necessity to overcome trade barriers and to secure sources of raw materials.hymer (1960)

12、ushers in a new tradition in the study of multinational enterprises (mne). if mne are able to compete with local firms that have a much better knowledge of the local and market and environment, it is because mne present some sort of compensatory advantage, such as:1、 imperfect competition, for examp

13、le, as a result of a product differentiation2、 imperfect competition in the factor market, for example, access to patented or proprietary knowledge, discrimination regarding access to capital, or skill advantages3、 internal or external economies of scale, including those arising from vertical integr

14、ation4、 governmental intervention, i.e., restriction on imports.with these advantages, mne would prefer to supply the foreign market by way of direct investments instead of through exports. in an analogous manner, mne would not be willing to license production to local firms if the local firms were

15、uncertain about the value of the license or if the know-how transfer costs (property rights) were too high.kindleberger (1969) slightly modifies hymers analysis. instead of mnf behavior determining the market structure, it is the market structure monopolistic competition - that will determine the co

16、nduct of the firm, by internalizing its production. caves (1971), also develops a similar analysis, in which structure dictates conduct. fdi will be made basically in sectors that are dominated by oligopolies. if there is product differentiation, horizontal investments may take place, i.e., in the s

17、ame sector. if there is no product differentiation, vertical investments will be made, in sectors that are behind in the productive chain of firms. the existence of fdi is further related to trade barriers, as a way of avoiding uncertainties in supplies, or as a way of imposing barriers to new firms

18、 on the external market.thus, the hypothesis of direct investment being determined by specific assets that compensate the initial disadvantage faced by foreign firms in relation to local firms went on to become the hkc tradition, named after hymer, kindleberger and caves. markusen and venables (1995

19、) developed a model along the same line, comparing the importance of multinational firms to foreign trade. the presence of multinational firms (with regard to trade) increases as countries become more similar in terms of income, and in terms of the relative allotment of factors and technology.a seco

20、nd line of studies of the determinants of fdi is based on the idea of transaction cost internalization. buckley and casson (1976) and (1981), and buckley (1985) were the first to develop this hypothesis, starting with the idea that the intermediate product markets are imperfect, having higher transa

21、ction costs, when managed by different firms. when markets are integrated by mne, these costs would be minimized. mne have proprietary assets with regard to marketing, designs, patents, trademarks, innovative capacity, etc., whose transfer may be costly for being intangible assets, or due to a good

22、sense of opportunity, or even because they are diffuse, and thus difficult to sell or lease.the internalization theory emphasizes the intermediary product market and the formation of international production networks. the theorys main strength may lie in its capacity to address the dilemma between t

23、he licensing of production to a foreign agent and own production. therefore, the firm must make two decisions: location and mode of control. when production and control are located in the home country, the firm exports; when production and control take place in the host country, fdi is made. normall

24、y, these decisions concern the several stages of product internationalization.also, within a framework that could be classified as microeconomic, there is the work of john dunning. his analysis begins by stating that the ownership of dissimilar assets may be considered as one of the factors responsi

25、ble for the existence of multinational firms. dunning develops an approach that must be understood, in his view, as a paradigm (in the sense that it brings together conflicting theories, with no single outcome) known as oli (ownership, location, internalization). this paradigm may be schematically p

26、resented as follows:foreign firms hold advantages over domestic firms in a given sector as a result of privileged ownership of certain tangible or intangible assets that are only available to firms of that same nationality.based on this paradigm, dunning outlines four reasons for a firm to invest ab

27、road: the searches for resources, for markets, for efficiency, and for new strategic assets. the dynamics between knowledge assets and location factors have dictated the upsurge in multinational investments over the last decades - mainly the search for strategic assets. in spite of the shifting, in

28、recent years, of multinational activity towards developing countries, either market-seeking or resource-seeking, the main novelty is the increase in investments in developing countries in search of strategic assets, altering the nature of the location factors. if, on one hand, knowledge assets (inta

29、ngible) can cross national borders, with which multinational firms would have a competitive edge in seeking strategic assets in countries other than their own, on the other, the location of these assets is increasingly influenced by the existence of activity clusters, which are complementary.another

30、 line of thinking is represented by the product cycle model proposed by vernon (1966). according to this model, since innovations are labor savers, they initially appear in those countries that are more capital intensive, especially the us (the model was developed in the mid-60s). gradually, product

31、ion is relocated to countries that are less capital intensive, and lastly, to developing countries. at the same time, production in richer countries is reoriented towards new products that incorporate innovations in products and processes. this model was partially responsible for a set of studies th

32、at regarded the spreading of multinational firms as being sequential, taking place in stages. the firms would initially supply the export market, then establish trade representatives abroad, and eventually end up setting up production in target markets by way of subsidiaries.also along the productio

33、n internationalization line of thinking, for reasons endogenous to the firm, we have the studies developed by graham (1978), (1998) and (2000). according to these studies, the emergence of mne is a result of oligopolistic interaction as firms grow, as a risk reduction strategy. in his most recent st

34、udy, the author employs game theory in order to develop a simplified two-country, one-sector model to analyze the entrance of a firm in a foreign country, and to study the reaction to the entrance of a firm from another country in the local market. the relevant point here is that the rivalry between

35、 firms is an important dimension which is not always considered in mnf studies.one of the most promising approaches may be the work of cantwell summarized in cantwell (2000). this approach considers the technological accumulation concept as an internal and cumulative process to the firm. since techn

36、ology is tacit, meaning that it is not transferred without costs, firms will develop their capacities and knowledge in unique and different manners. thus, competition among firms is basically technological. innovation is the main profit maker. the internationalizing of production allows firms to use

37、 their knowledge and innovating potential in other environments, increasing their specific advantages. also, expansion leads to adaptation, allowing for more innovation.consequently, the firm then deploys its knowledge through international technology networks, investing in other centers so as to ga

38、in access to new knowledge. the hymer-kindleberger-caves paradigm thus does not hold, for the internationalization of production is also kindled by technological competition.determinants of fdi: empirical studiesempirical studies that attempt to estimate the importance of the different determinants

39、of fdi concentrate more on attraction factors, i.e., location factors, since available data make it difficult to identify which countries the investments come from, unless a large set of countries and years is analyzed. the capital propriety advantages, for example, mentioned in some of the studies

40、outlined in section 2 as an important push-factor, are more difficult to be observed, and depend on research involving firms. the main variables normally used are the size of the market, the rate of gnp growth, economic stability, the degree of openness of the economy, as well as several other insti

41、tutional variables, as shall be seen.however, the relation between fdi and economic growth deserves special attention. if, on one hand, economic growth is a powerful stimulant to the inflow of fdi, on the other, an increase in foreign investment since this would mean an increase in the existing capi

42、tal stock (greenfield investment) would also be one of the factors responsible for economic growth, meaning the existence of an endogenously problem. there are, also, other studies that deal with proving the relation between fdi and the level of economic activity.regarding the determinants of fdi, i

43、t must be stated that there are substantial differences between the flows that only involve developing countries, whether between home and host countries, and those in which the host countries are developing countries. according to dunning (2002), in the former case strategic asset-seeking investmen

44、ts take place, in which fdi is used in mergers and acquisitions, seeking horizontal efficiency. in the second case, investments are characterized by the search for markets, and resources, thus being of vertical efficiency.source: marcelo jos braga nonnenberg and mrio jorge cardoso de mendona. the de

45、terminants of direct foreign investment in developing countries .brazilian association of graduate programs in economics, 2004: p61-80.译文：发展中国家对外直接投资的决定因素发展中国家在近25年来参与对外直接投资有很大的差异，由1980年的15%增加到1982年的46%，在近四年内趋于20%。然而，必须指出，这些国际资本流动的最终目的仍旧与发展中国家的对外直接投资有实质的区别，尽管在过去的几十年里一直有变化。例如，如今与20世纪之初相比，寻找农业或矿物资源远远不

46、那么重要。另一方面，这些当前的现金流动是非常复杂的，其具体特点是受到母国和东道国经济因素及多种因素的相关公司操作的竞争环境的影响。本文的目的是评估，基于面板数据，找到对外直接投资在发展中国家的主要决定因素。应该看到，如规模和产品的增长速度因素，熟练劳动力的供应，外资的接受能力，国家风险评级，和在对外直接投资中发挥重要作用的股票的市场行为。此外，通过运用面板数据中的因果关系检验，它是可以证明很多人都有的一个想法，即对外直接投资对生产具有积极的影响。然而，用来测试表明因果关系的程序，相反，这一现象的行为表明的是相反的意义，即通常情况是该国的产品，会影响对外直接投资。我们的研究结构如下：在第2章我们

47、提供了理论文献回顾与对外直接投资的决定因素处理。在第3章中我们来研究分析最近研究的对外直接投资与若干经济因素的关系。在第4章，我们列出了我们的模型和假设进行测试，和现在所取得的成果。然后分析结果在第5章。在第6章我们测试的产品之间的外国投资和因果关系。最后，在第7章，我们提出我们的研究结论。外国直接投资的决定因素：理论综述在本节中，我们将回顾理论文献与外国直接投资的决定因素处理。突出的一个方面是，这些研究大多强调各公司本身的因素，并与当地企业所特有的跨国公司有关，特别是那些与竞争的相关企业自身和本地公司，比较少的重视区位因素。首先从理论上研究对外直接投资的决定因素，我们要回归亚当斯密，穆勒和托

48、伦斯的理论，解决这个问题首先就是奥林的理论。据笔者观察，外国直接投资的动机是高盈利的可能性，主要在发展中市场，随着融资利率较低的可能性，投资在东道国的可能性也就越低。需要其他的决定因素来克服贸易障碍，以确保原材料来源。海默指出在一个新的传统将迎来多国企业研究，跨国公司能够参与与那些对当地市场和环境的竞争，同时能更好地了解当地企业，这是因为目前一些跨国公司所利用的一些优势，例如：1、 不完全竞争，例如，作为一个产品的差异化的结果。2、 在要素市场不完全竞争，例如，获得专利或专有知识，获得资金方面的歧视，或技术优势。3、 内部或外部规模经济,包括纵向一体化引起的。4、 政府干预，即对进口的限制。有

49、了这些优势，跨国公司更愿意通过直接供应国外市场的投资方式，而不是通过出口。在另一个类似的方式，如果本地公司的牌照价值被确定或者如果技术转化的成本太高了，那么跨国公司不会愿意授权给当地企业生产，。金德尔伯格稍微修改海默的分析。并不是由于多重因素决定了市场结构，而是由于垄断性竞争所控制了市场，使产品主观化，它是市场结构，垄断竞争，这将决定该公司生产内部的行为。克夫斯，还开发了这种结构支配行为类似的分析。金融衍生工具将在基本上在由寡头部门主导。如果有产品差异化，投资将可能发生在同一个地方，即在同一部门。如果没有产品的差异，直接投资将在该行业中的公司生产链的背后形成。对外直接投资存在进一步的相关贸易壁

50、垒，或者是一种在外部市场的对新企业壁垒，这将成为新公司的障碍。因此，海默，金德尔伯格和克夫斯在直接投资的假设下，由特定的资产来补偿本地公司已经成为了外国公司的传统。马库森和维纳布尔斯开发了沿着相同的路线的模型，通过外贸来比较跨国公司的重要性。随着国家和地区的增长多国公司将在收入方面有更多的类似的存在，并在各种因素和技术的相对分配的条款。第二个的研究对外直接投资决定因素的观念为基础交易的成本国际化。巴克利和卡森是最早开发这一假说，开始的想法是当由不同的公司管理会使中间产品市场不完善，有较高的交易成本。当市场中的多国企业整合，这些费用将减至最低。跨国公司在营销方面有专有的资产，设计，专利，商标，创新能力等，其可能是被转让无形资产，或者由于感觉良好的机会成本，甚至因为他们是分散的，因此很难出售或出租。内部化理论强调了中介市场和产品的国际生产网络的形成。该理