在工业化国家的高新技术产品出口和经济增长【外文翻译】

1、本科毕业论文外文原文外文题目： high-tech exports and economic growth in industrialized countries 出 处： economics 作 者： martin falk 原 文：high-tech exports and economic growth in industrialized countriesmartin falkaustrian institute of economic research (wifo)abstractthe present article provides new evidence on the imp

2、act of the change in the high-tech export share on economic growth in oecd countries. we estimate a dynamic growth model on panel data for 22 oecd countries for 19802004, in which the data is measured as 5-year averages. using the system gmm panel estimator, which corrects for simultaneity, we find

3、that both business r&d intensity and the share of high-tech exports are significantly positively related to the gdp per working age population. the estimated elasticities are rather sizable but the magnitude suggests that business r&d intensity is more important than the share of high-tech exports i

4、n explaining gdp per working age population.1. introductionthe share of high-technology exports in total manufacturing exports has increased considerably in oecd countries throughout the last 25 years. some oecd countries such as finland, ireland, korea, the netherlands and the united kingdom have i

5、ncreased their high-tech export share more than other countries. similarly, the change in the ratio of business expenditures on r&d (berd) to gdp has also unevenly evolved across oecd countries. the differences in the evolution of high-technology export share and business r&d intensity have attracte

6、d substantial policy interest. business r&d intensity is commonly identified as the main input factor in the innovation process, while the share of high-tech exports is regarded as an important measure of innovation output. both measures are widely used in order to benchmark a countrys innovation pe

7、rformance. given the interest in the specific innovation indicators, it is natural to ask as to which of the two factors is more important for economic growth.the related empirical literature agrees that investment in r&d is one of the most significant factors affecting the differences in gdp and pr

8、oductivity growth (bassanini and scarpetta, 2001).however, the relationship between high-tech exports and economic growth in industrialized countries remains somewhat unclear. crespo-cuaresma and wo rz (2005) found that the export share of technology-intensive industries is significantly positively

9、related to the gdp per capita only for the sample of non-oecd countries, but not for the sample of oecd countries. using the data for oecd countries, peneder (2003) finds that exports of technology driven industries have a positive and significant impact on the level and growth of the gdp per capita

10、. what is common to all in the previous studies is that they suffer from an omitted variable bias since they exclude the r&d intensity as a measure of innovation input.the aim of the present article is to provide new insights into the impact of high-tech exports on economic growth. the growth equati

11、on is estimated using the system generalized method of moments (gmm) panel estimator based on panel of 22 oecd countries for the period 1980 to 2004, in which the data are measured as 5-year averages.2. empirical modelthe empirical model is based on the human capital augmented solow model that was i

12、ntroduced by mankiw et al. (mrw) (1992). nonneman and vanhoudt (1996) extended the mrw model by adding the ratio of r&d to gdp. we further augment the mrw model by adding a measure of innovation output such as the high-tech export share as an alternative to r&d intensity. following caselli et al. (1

13、996), the steady state level of gdp per capita based on panel data can be described as:where is per capita gdp of the working age population expressed in 1995 purchasing power parities in country i in period t, where is a country specific effect, is a period-specific effect, and it is an error-term.

14、 the set of explanatory variables includes the investment ratio, invit, the ratio of business enterprise r&d expenditures to gdp (berd), rdgdpit, average years of education in the working age population (from 25 to 64 years of age) taken from barro and lee, 2000), eduit and the share of high-tech ex

15、ports to total manufacturing exports we can derive the regression equation by taking first differences in order to remove unobserved time-invariant, country specific effects (for the sake of notational convenience, x shall comprise the explanatory variables):assuming the residuals of the level equat

16、ion are serially uncorrelated, the values of y lagged two periods or more can be used as instruments in the first-differenced equation. this implies the following moment condition:in order to deal with the potential endogeneity problem, we assume that the explanatory variables in x are predetermined

17、, rather than strictly exogenous, implying in turn the following moment conditions:the estimation equation and moment conditions are estimated using the system gmm estimator proposed by blundell and bond (1998). this requires following additional level moment conditions: and 3. estimation resultstab

18、le 1 shows the estimation results for the growth equation using three different specifications. in order to reduce the influence of potential outliers, we exclude data points whose standardized residual falls outside the interval from _2 to 2. this reduces the sample by seven observations and leaves

19、 us with 96 observations.2 in all cases, the sargan test of over identifying restrictions cannot reject the null hypothesis that the instruments are uncorrelated with the error term at the 5% level.as was expected, we find that the export share of high-technology industries enters the growth equatio

20、n with a positive sign and is significant at the 1% level (see specification ii). the short and long-term elasticities of gdp per working age population with regard to the share of high-tech exports are 0.025 and 0.29, respectively.the ratio of business r&d expenditures to gdp is also significant at

21、 the 1% implying that increased r&d activities have a significant positive impact on gdp per capita growth (see specification i). the short and long-term elasticities of business r&d intensity with regard to gdp are 0.021 and 0.21, respectively. when both variables are included, the coefficient of t

22、he share of high-tech exports drop from 0.025 to 0.011, and the r&d coefficient drops from 0.021 to 0.014 (see specification). interestingly, the joint effect of both r&d intensity and the high-tech export share is equal to 0.025. however, the point estimate of high-tech exports is more affected tha

23、n that of business r&d when each of the variables enters the regression equation. this indicates that business r&d intensity is more important than technological specialization in explaining economic growth.furthermore, the se of both of the coefficients is enlarged due to collinearity. therefore, w

24、e also provide the wald-test statistics of joint significance indicating that both business r&d intensity and the share of high-tech exports are jointly significant at the 5% level.4. conclusionsthe present article provides new evidence of the impact of the share of high-tech exports and business r&

25、d intensity on economic growth. failure to control for innovation input can cause high-tech exports to pick up their effect, leading to an overestimation of the impact of the share of high-tech exports. in using the system gmm estimator, which enables us to control for simultaneity bias, we find tha

26、t both measures of innovation performance are powerful determinants of economic growth when entering the growth equation separately. when both indicators are included in the growth equation, we find that business r&d is more important than high-tech exports in explaining economic growth. therefore,

27、the failure to account for the impact of innovation input leads to an overestimation of the impact of high-tech exports.the results of the present study are important for policy makers, as both business r&d intensity and the share of high-tech exports are one of the main indicators of the european i

28、nnovation scoreboard (eis), which is published by the european commission. given the results, we suggest that business r&d intensity should be given more weight in the composite summary innovation index that is published in the eis.appendix译 文：在工业化国家的高新技术产品出口和经济增长马丁.福尔克 奥地利经济研究所（wifo）摘 要本文为高新技术出口份额的

29、变化对经合组织国家的经济增长产生影响提供了新的证据。我们根据22个经合组织国家1980-2004年的数据估计出一个动态的生长模型，该测量数据为5年的平均数。使用修正性的系统广义距估计方法，我们发现企业r&d强度和高新技术产品出口份额都与工作年龄人口的人均gdp呈现显著正相关。被估计的弹性相当大，但是幅度上显示在影响工作年龄人口的人均gdp上，企业r&d强度比高新技术产品出口份额的因素更重要。一、 引言在过去的25年里，经合组织国家的高新技术产品出口份额在整个制造业出口份额中大幅增加。一些经合组织国家例如芬兰、爱尔兰、韩国、荷兰和英国已经增加了他们的高科技出口份额并超过其他国家。同样，企业研发支

30、出占gdp的比例的变化在经合组织各国之间也发展的很不平衡。高科技出口份额的发展和企业r&d强度之间的不同吸引了大量的政策兴趣。企业r&d强度一般定义为在创新过程中的主要投入因素，而高新技术产品出口份额被认为是一种重要的衡量创新成果的指标。这两项指标都被广泛使用，以衡量一个国家的创新绩效。鉴于对具体的创新指标的研究，最主要的问题是对于经济增长这两种因素哪种更重要。相关实证文献认同对r&d的投资对gdp和生产力增长（bassanini和scarpetta，2001年）都有不同程度的影响。然而，高新技术出口和经济增长之间的关系在工业化国家还是有些不清楚的。克雷斯波和沃尔斯（crespo-cuares

31、ma and worz，2005）发现，技术密集型产业的出口份额和人均gdp呈现显著正相关，但是不适用于经合组织国家，而仅仅只适用非经合组织国家。潘纳德（peneder，2003年）发现使用这些数据用于经合组织国家时，技术出口带动产业对人均gdp水平的增长有着积极而显著的影响。在以前的研究中普遍存在一个被忽略的变量偏差，直到它们排出了r&d强度作为一种创新投入的指标。本文的目的是提供新的视角研究高新技术产品出口对经济增长的影响。基于22个经合组织国家在1980-2004年之间的面板数据，使用系统广义距估计方法估计出生长方程，该测量数据为5年的平均数。二、 实证模型实证模型是基于人力资本增加索洛

32、（solow）模型，而它又是来源于mrw模型（mankiw-romeer-weil model，简称mrw模型）的。南那曼和凡浩特（nonneman and vanhoudt，1996）通过加入r&d占gdp的比重这一因素扩展了mrw的模型。我们通过增加一项衡量创新产出的指标，如选择高新技术产品出口份额作为r&d强度，来进一步扩展mrw模型。以下是凯瑟琳等（caselli，1996）建立的方程，基于面板数据人均gdp水平的稳定状态可以被描述为：其中是由工作年龄的人均gdp表示的1995年国家i在t期的购买力平价，其中代表一个国家具体的影响，代表一个时期的特定作用，然后是一个残差项。该解释变量包括投资比例，invit代表企业的r&d支出占gdp的比重（企业研发支出），rdgdpit代表在工作年龄人口（25岁至64岁）中受教育的评价年数。摘自白若和李（barro and lee,2000）,eduit和高新技术产品出口占整体制造业出口的份额由表示。我们可以通过采用第一个差异项消除不可观测且时间不变的，即国家的具体影响来得出回归方程。（为了方便记录，x包括解释性变量