SECTOR：DOWNGRADETO“NEUTRAL”SEASONALTRADINGOPPORTUNITIESEXIST1116

1、rmb/tonne jan10jun10jun11apr10 sep10dec10mar11sep11mar12sep12dec11 jun12 rmb/tonne jun11 jul11 nov11 jun12 may11may12 jan11 aug11 jan12 jul12 dec11sep11aug12feb11mar11 apr11oct11 feb12mar12 apr12 sep12 sectorreport aviationsector航空行业 gtjaresearch国泰君安研究 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% sector report: aviation s

2、ector 行业报告：航空行业 harry chen 陈欢瑜 +86 755 23976683 15 november 2012 downgrade to “neutral”, seasonal trading opportunities exist 下调行业评级到“中性”,仍具有季节投机性机会 china passenger and air cargo traffic are expected to grow faster in 2013. china airlines passenger traffic (rpk) is expected to increase stably at 10.

3、9% yoy in 2012. benefiting from rapid tourist growth and the recovery of chinas economy, airlines passenger traffic of 2013 is expected to grow faster than that of 2012 and passenger load factor is estimated to remain flat. air cargo traffic (rftk) is estimated to slip 7% yoy in 2012 mainly due to t

4、he impact of european debt crisis and slow recovery of u.s. rating: 评级： neutral downgraded 中性 (下调) economy, as well as slower china economy growth. in addition, overcapacity in sea freight depressed freight charges and shifted cargo from air freight to sea freight. however, inventory level in overse

5、as is not at overhang. the international trades are monthly china traffic (rpk) airlinespassenger expected to grow faster in 2q13. therefore, air cargo traffic of 2013 is expected to recover in 2q13 中国航空公司月度客运量增长 rmb appreciation and the decrease of fuel price are expected to lift airlines 4q12 30%

6、domesticregionalinternational earnings significantly. rmb has appreciated rapidly after u.s. qe3 from august. it is estimated rmb will appreciate another 1.3% from now till end of 2012. fuel price started to decrease from september. therefore, 4q12 earnings of the airlines are expected to improve ra

7、pidly. we believe that rmb is will appreciate slightly and fuel price is expected to increase in 2013 as a result of global economic recovery. downgrade aviation sector to “neutral” rating. we revise up the 12-14 earnings for the big-three airlines. the valuations of aviation stocks are very close t

8、o their historical average which reflects the expectation of global economic recovery. high market risks still exist due to possible slow recovery in china and europe, as well as u.s. fiscal cliff. therefore, we believe that the valuation of aviation stocks is reasonable and downgrade aviation secto

9、r rating to “neutral”. however, we believe that trading opportunities may still exist in 3q13 due to peak season effects. 预计航空的客货运将在 2013 年复苏。航空客运在 2012 年增长比较稳定。预计受惠于旅游 source: caac, guotai junan international jet fuel price and domestic fuel surcharges 国内航油出厂价和国内燃油附加费 出行人数的快速增长，以及中国经济的见底复苏，预计 2013

10、年的航空客运量增长将快于 2012 年，客座率与 2012 年持平。航空货运量在 2012 年预计下滑 7%，这主要是受到欧洲 债务危机、美国经济复苏缓慢，以及中国经济增速放缓的影响。海运运力过剩使海运和航 空运输的运价偏低，使用航空运输的比例减少。但是由于国外市场的库存并没有过高，国 际贸易将在 13 年 2 季度加速增长，预计航空货运将在 2013 年复苏。 9,500 9,000 8,500 8,000 7,500 jetksifc cif(lhs) surcharges for no more than 800km(rhs) domestic jet fuel ex-factory p

11、rice(lhs) surcharges for above 800km(rhs) 160 140 120 100 80 7,000 预计人民币升值和油价下滑将大幅提升 12 年 4 季度盈利。人民币从 8 月初美国推行 qe3 后快速升值，预计到年底时将升值 1.3%。而油价也从 9 月份开始下滑，这些因素将大幅提 升航空公司 4 季度业绩。预计 2013 年人民币将继续小幅升值，油价也因为全球经济向好 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 60 40 20 0 而逐渐回升。 source: bloomberg, guotai junan international 下调行业到“中

12、性”评级。我们上调了三大航空公司的 12-14 年的盈利预测，现在航空公 司的估值均到达他们的历史平均水平，反映了经济复苏的预期。我们认为市场风险仍然存 在，包括中国和欧洲的经济的复苏步伐仍有可能比较缓慢，美国的财政悬崖有可能引发信 用降级。因此相信航空公司现在的估值比较合理，我们下调行业评级到“中性”。但是我 们相信在明年航空的旺季 3 季度仍存在季节性的投机机会。 company name 公司名称 code 编号 price 股价 rating 投资评级 12 per 市盈率 13 per 市盈率 14 per 市盈率 12 roe 净资产收益率 12 p/b 市净率 12 yield

13、股息率 (hk$)(x)(x)(x)(%)(x)(%) air china china southern airlines china eastern airlines weighted average. 市值加权平均 00753.hk 01055.hk 00670.hk 5.11 3.45 2.70 neutral neutral neutral neutral 12.8 10.6 8.8 11.3 10.1 9.0 7.0 9.1 9.3 8.3 5.4 8.1 8.3 6.4 12.5 8.8 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.9 sourcethe compa

14、nies, bloomberg, guotai junan international see the last page for disclaimerpage 1 of 27 jul11 jun11 nov11 may11 jan11 may12aug11 jan12jun12 jul12 sep11dec11aug12feb11 mar11 apr11oct11 feb12mar12apr12 sectorreport aviationsector航空行业 sep12 15november2012 airlines passenger traffic analysis resilient

15、passenger traffic in 2012. in the first 9 months of 2012, china airlines passenger traffic (rpk) increased 11.4% yoy, slightly higher than expected. china airlines carried 293 million passengers, up 9.3% yoy. among all the routes, passenger traffic of international and domestic routes increased 15.4

16、% yoy ytd and 10.5% yoy ytd, respectively. the passenger traffic of international routes grew rapidly during march to august but growth narrowed down in september. this is mainly due to easing visa requirement in developed countries since these countries tried to attract more chinese tourists to spe

17、nd money in their countries and boost their economy. however, in september, international passenger traffic grew slowing 11.5% yoy, down 9pps mom, mainly due to decreased visitors to japan as a result of national friction between china and japan. domestic passenger traffic growth slowed down along w

18、ith the china economy in the 3q12 but recovered in 3q12. we believe that passenger traffic in 4q12 is expected to slow down due to the uncertainty of china economy as a result of leadership re-election. therefore, passenger traffic of 2012 is expected to increase 10.9% yoy, slightly higher than our

19、previous forecasts. figure-1: monthly china airlines rpk growthfigure-2: monthly china airlines rpk growth of different routes mn pax-km 20092010201120122012 growth%domesticregionalinternational 50,00020.0 30% 45,000 25% 40,000 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 15.0 10.0 20% 15% 10% 5% 5,000

20、 0 5.0 0% janfebmaraprmayjunjulaugsepoctnovdec source: caac, guotai junan international.source: caac, guotai junan international. tourist growth slowed down but remained stable in 1-3q12. according to the report of china tourism academy, the number of tourist increased 13.1% yoy in the first 3 quart

21、ers of 2012. ytd domestic tourist and outbound tourist number increased 13.7% yoy and 16.7% yoy, respectively, while ytd inbound tourist number dropped 1.8% yoy. the growth of tourist number decreased nearly 10pps yoy due to the slow down of china economy growth. domestic tourists still were still m

22、ajor source of china tourist, accounting nearly 93% of the total tourists. the growth of domestic and outbound tourists remained relatively stable while that of inbound tourists impacted significantly by europe debt crisis. according to the forecasts of china tourism academy, total tourist number is

23、 estimated to increase 12.9% yoy in 2012. domestic tourist and outbound tourist number are expected to increase 13.6% yoy and 16.7% yoy, respectively, while inbound tourist number may drop 2.2% yoy. airlines passenger and tourist numbers increased rapidly during “golden week” 2012. according to chin

24、a aviation administration of china (“caac”), there are 7.6 million passengers traveled through airlines during chinas “golden week” (sept. 30-oct. 7), up 27% yoy. comparing with previous years, passenger number growth of the “golden week” 2012 was the highest during the last 6 years while the daily

25、passenger number growth was close to historical average. the rapid growth of passenger number was mainly due to longer holidays and the delay of travelling as a result of frequent natural disaster during this spring and summer. in addition, easing visa requirement of developed countries, including u

26、.s., korea and japan etc, as well as rmb appreciation during these years has boosted the number of outbound tourists significantly. however, the growth of airline passenger number was lower than that of tourist number growth since some of the tourists were diverted to china railway of high-speed (“c

27、rh”) and self-drive as a result of free of toll charge in highways. consumer confidence and purchasing managers index (“pmi”) signals slower airline passenger growth in 4q12. china consumer confidence index dropped rapidly in 2008 during the financial crisis and then recovered gradually during 2009

28、and 2010. in september, consumer confidence index was 100.8, up 1.4 pts mom but down 2.4 pts yoy, which was very see the last page for disclaimerpage 2 of 27 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f 000people nov05nov10jan05 jun05 jul07 jan10 jun10 feb07oct

29、08 mar09 may08 sep06dec07aug09sep11 feb12 apr06apr11 jul12 sectorreport aviationsector航空行业 15november2012 60 close to the level of mid 2008. low consumer confidence was related to the less active of manufacturing expansion. production manager index of august and september were 49.2 and 49.8 which su

30、ggested that manufacturing production was shrinking. therefore, we believe that the growth of tourist travel and business travel are expected to slow down further in 4q12. airlines passenger number is expected to increase in a long run due to reform of employee paid leave system. currently, the empl

31、oyee paid leave system in china has a lot of problems. according to mercer, chinese workers have average of 21 days paid leave and public holidays per year, ranking 59 out of 62 survey countries, which are considered very low. in addition, only 65% of the chinese workers are able to take all of thei

32、r holidays for the year, according to ipsos. the biggest problem for current system of paid leave is that travel demand is concentrated on “golden week” in october which create visitors overload in most of import sightseeing places and public transportation. therefore, it is expected that the govern

33、ment may reform the employee paid leave system to make sure the corporation to carry out the official holidays for their employees and gradually extend the workers paid leave. we believe that such policies will stimulate the growth of tourist number and shift the travel demand partially from “golden

34、 week” to other days. therefore, passenger traffic of “golden week” is expected to ease in the next few years while the passenger traffic during the year is expected to increase faster. overall tourist number and airline passenger number are expected to increase. tourist number and airlines passenge

35、r numbers are expected to grow rapidly due to chinese policies and easing of overseas visa requirement. the tourism spending in china accounted for nearly 15.53% of social retail sales of consumer goods and 6.05% of gdp in 2011, according to the china leisure activities development report 2012 (2012

36、 年中国休闲发 展报告). the tourism spending is becoming more and more important in china economy. since the effects from the stimulation on vehicle consumption, home appliances and real estate are limited, the stimulation of tourism spending has become more and more important during the industry transition p

37、eriod. the government continued to introduce policies to improve the quality of the tourist services and promote the development of tourism, such as the advice of promoting and directing the private investment in tourism industry (关于鼓励和引导民间资本投资旅游业的实施意见) and the advice of improving the public service

38、 in tourism industry (关于进一步做好旅游公共服务工作的意见). as a result, domestic tourist growth is expected to remain robust. in addition, overseas travel has become easier since the visa requirements for chinese residents are lowering in u.s., japan and korea. on 19 jan 2012, obama urged the u.s. government to low

39、er the visa requirement for chinese and brazilian residents to attract more overseas tourists to spend money in u.s. in 2011, 1.15 million chinese tourists had been to u.s, up 16% yoy. the u.s. government has the target of increasing 40% more in visa approvals for chinese tourists in 2012. in additi

40、on, japanese and korean governments also lowered the visa requirement for chinese residents from july and august of 2012, respectively. as a result, the outbound tourist is expected to grow rapidly. therefore, we expect the tourist number to grow more than 10% each year during the next 5 years which

41、 will support the growth of airlines passenger number. figure-3: china consumer confidence index and production manager index figure-4: china tourist number and growth 115 consumer condidence (lhs)pmi:manuf(rhs) 5,000,000 domestic tourist no. outbound tourist no. inbound tourist growth inbound touri

42、st no. domestic tourist growth outbound tourist growth 50% 4,500,000 110 105 100 55 50 45 40 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 1,000,000 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 500,000 9535 0-10% source: ceic, guotai junan international. see the last page for disclaimer source: national tourism

43、 administration of prc, guotai junan international. page 3 of 27 may07may08may09may10may11may12 jan07jan08jan09jan10jan11 sep07sep08sep09sep10sep11jan12sep12 nov06jan01jun07 jan08 jul04 oct02mar02feb05mar09oct09apr06 jul11 may03may10 aug01sep05aug08feb12sep12dec03dec10 sectorreport aviationsector航空行

44、业 15november2012 table-1: airline passenger number and tourist number during “golden week” 200720082009201020112012 number of holidays airlines passenger number(000) yoy growth daily passenger number (000) yoy growth total tourist number(000) yoy growth daily tourist number(000) yoy growth % of tour

45、ists travelled by planes 7 3,750 24.0% 536 24.0% 146,000 9.6% 20,857 9.6% 2.6% 7 4,330 15.5% 619 15.5% 178,000 21.9% 25,429 21.9% 2.4% 8 5,290 22.2% 661 6.9% 228,000 28.1% 28,500 12.1% 2.3% 7 5,750 8.7% 821 24.2% 254,000 11.4% 36,286 27.3% 2.3% 7 5,980 4.0% 854 4.0% 302,000 18.9% 43,143 18.9% 2.0% 8

46、 7,600 27.1% 950 11.2% 425,000 40.7% 53,125 23.1% 1.8% source: national tourism administration of prc, guotai junan international. diversified travel methods diverted airline passenger traffic. people normally travel inter-cities through 5 major ways, including railway, highway coaches, cars, waterw

47、ay and airlines. railway is the major subsidies for airlines. generally, when household income increase, airfares become more affordable and more people prefer airlines to railway since air planes are comfortable and faster. therefore, weighting of airline passenger among all public transportation i

48、ncreased from 0.4% to 0.9% during 2001 to 2007. however, the development of crh improved the competition of railway as a result of being more comfortable and faster speed. as a result, crh has diverted some of passenger from airlines and the weighting of airlines passengers among all public transpor

49、tation remained relatively stable during 2008-2012. in addition, private owned passenger vehicles increased rapidly during recent years. in 2009, fuel surcharges replaced highway maintenance fees has not only boosted the vehicle sales, but also boosted the highway traffic. in “golden week” of 2012,

50、highway toll charges are waived which drove more people to travel by their own cars, instead of airlines. figure-5: china passenger number from major public transportation figure-6: percentage of airlines passengers among all public transportation 50% railwayhighway coachesairlinesweighting of pax c

51、arried by airlines(lhs) weighing of rpk of airlines(rhs) 40% 1.2%18% 16% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% 1.0% 0.8% 0.6% 0.4% 0.2% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% -20% 0.0% 2% 0% source: ceic, guotai junan international.source: caac, ceic, guotai junan international. positive long term growth for chinese airlines in the ne

52、xt 20 years. in september 2012, both boeing and airbus released their forecasts of future passenger, air cargo and aircraft demand in the next 20 years. both of the companies estimated the air passenger traffic of china domestic routes to increase about 7.0% annually during 2012-2031 since the china

53、 economy and tourist spending are expected to increase stably and the population is very large which gives great potential for the air passenger traffic to grow. chinas air passenger growth is estimated to increase 10.9%, 11.3% and 10.1% in 2012-2014, respectively. excluding special events, such as

54、financial crisis, 1989 events and sars, the elasticity between gdp and rpk growth was around 1.0 to 2.0 in china during the past 20 years. this is in-line with the global aviation development pattern which suggested that the elasticity between gdp and rpk growth tends to be more than 1.0 in developi

55、ng countries. during the last 10 years, the average elasticity value was 1.6 and gradually decreased from 1.8 to 1.4 in china. we expect such elasticity value to drop continuously from 1.4 to 1.3 in the next 3 years. since passenger traffic growth has such correlation with gdp, we estimate the china

56、 airlines rpk based on the elasticity relationship between gdp and rpk growth. in 2013, we believe that china economy may recover gradually due to more easing government policies on consumer spending and recovery of see the last page for disclaimerpage 4 of 27 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005

57、 2007 2009 2011 2013f2015f mnpax-kilometre 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012f2013f2014f2015f aviationsector航空行业 sectorreport 15november2012 5 international trade as a result of u.s. qe3. therefore, china gdp is estimate

58、d to grow 7.7%, 8.1% and 7.8% during 2012-2014, respectively, based on bloomberg. as a result, china passenger traffic (rpk) of 2012-2014 is estimated to increase 10.9%, 11.3% and 10.1%, respectively, which are considered relatively stable. figure-7: gdp and elasticity forecasts of 2012-1015figure-8

59、: china rpk forecasts of 2012-2015 rpk growth/gdp growth gdp(rhs) elasticity (5-year moving average) % 15 700,000 rpkrpk growth(rhs)% 45 40 600,000 35 4 3 2 1 0 source: caac, guotai junan international. 10 5 0 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 source: caac, guotai junan international. 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 excessive capacity in 2012 depressed passenger load factors (“plfs”) and airfares. in 2012, the big-three (ac, cea and csa) planned to introduce net 127 units of passenger aircraft, up 10.1% yoy. plf of the industry decreased 0.9pps yoy to 80.9% in the first 10 months of 201