MACAU：DECBEATS;SMOKINGBANASMOOTHTRANSITIONONDAY10104

1、buy buy buy deutsche bank markets research asia hong kong consumer hotels / leisure / industry macau date 2 january 2013 industry update gaming karen tang dec beats; smoking ban a smooth transition on day 1 smoking ban - smooth transition; limited impact on day 1 gaming revenue set a new high of mop

2、28.2bn in dec (+20% yoy), beating octs record (mop27.7bn). both vip and mass markets were stronger than expected, and junkets confirmed that vips are returning. smoking ban became effective on jan 1, and all casinos we visited have set up clear signs. for example, we saw in galaxy macau that smoking

3、 is allowed on all the high-limit tables in the pavilion areas, while for the remaining mass floor, all tables on the research analyst (+852) 2203 6141 top picks melco crown (mpel.oq),usd16.84 companies featured galaxy (0027.hk),hkd30.35 2011a 2012e 2013e left side are for non-smoking (right side fo

4、r smoking). while the smoking tables look slightly busier (80% occupied at 5pm), the non-smoking tables are also reasonably busy (60% occupied). we expect limited impact from this rule. p/e (x) ev/ebitda (x) price/book (x) 15.4 11.2 4.2 18.1 13.3 6.0 15.7 11.6 4.3 high-speed rail service extended to

5、 macau border on dec 31 the much-anticipated zhuhai station finally opened on dec 31. this brings the melco crown (mpel.oq),usd16.84 2011a 2012e 2013e high-speed rail very close to the macau border as the station is within 10 min walk to macaus gongbei border gate. from now on, daily scheduled servi

6、ces include 25 trains from the guangzhou south station from 7am to 10:40pm p/e (x) ev/ebitda (x) price/book (x) 16.6 8.4 1.8 23.6 11.3 2.8 18.8 10.1 2.4 (holiday season: 35 trains from 6:30am to 11pm). economy class one-way ticket costs rmb70 (first-class rmb90) and the travel time is reduced from 1

7、50 min (by bus) to now only 80 min. more importantly, guangzhou south station is also the hub for chinas high-speed rail network, linking up with major cities such as wuhan and beijing. galaxy gained market share from wynn macau based on dec 1-25 table revenue data, galaxy gained 2.4ppt market share

8、 to 18.6%. mgm china gained 0.9ppt market share to 10.5% likely due to the ramp up of new vip tables on level 2. these market share gains came mostly from wynn macau (down 2.6ppt to 9.5%) and sjm (down 0.9ppt to 26.7%). market shares were largely stable for melco crown (14.1%) and sands china (20.6%

9、). reiterate our positive view on macaus outlook in 2013 in dec, macau gaming stocks rose by an average of 1%, underperforming msci china by 4ppt and trading on par with msci hk. macau sector is now trading at 12x 2013 ev/ebitda and 16x 2013 pe, still at a big discount to chinese consumer discretion

10、ary pe (22x). key risks include smoking ban, news on anti-corruption and slower-than-expected vip recovery. mgm china (2282.hk),hkd14.02 hold 2011a 2012e 2013e p/e (x) 12.7 12.3 11.9 ev/ebitda (x) 9.7 9.4 9.1 price/book (x) 8.7 8.8 7.5 sands china (1928.hk),hkd33.95 hold 2011a 2012e 2013e p/e (x) 17

11、.5 25.4 21.6 ev/ebitda (x) 14.1 19.9 16.1 price/book (x) 4.1 7.3 6.9 sjm (0880.hk),hkd18.00 hold 2011a 2012e 2013e p/e (x) 14.3 14.8 14.7 ev/ebitda (x) 9.6 10.8 10.9 price/book (x) 4.1 5.0 4.8 wynn macau (1128.hk),hkd20.95 hold 2011a 2012e 2013e p/e (x) 17.7 16.1 16.3 figure 1: market share by gross

12、 gaming revenue mopbn aug sep 3q12 oct novdec*dec vs. nov ev/ebitda (x) price/book (x) 14.8 25.1 13.4 25.8 14.0 25.8 macau total yoy 26.1 6% 23.9 12% 74.6 6% 27.7 3% 24.9 8% 28.2 20% galaxy20.2% 18.1% 19.1% 19.2% 16.2%18.6%gained 2.4ppt melco crown 13.0% 14.2% 13.4% 13.9% 13.7% mgm china 10.4% 9.8%

13、9.7% 8.9% 9.6% sands china 19.0% 17.8% 19.4% 21.0% 20.8% 14.1% 10.5% 20.6% gained 0.4ppt gained 0.9ppt lost 0.2ppt sjm25.1% 27.2% 26.1% 26.9% 27.6%26.7%lost 0.9ppt wynn macau 12.3% 12.9% 12.2% 10.1% 12.1%9.5%lost 2.6ppt source: deutsche bank, government data*note: dec market share shows dec 1-25 tab

14、le-only gaming revenue market share. _ deutsche bank ag/hong kong deutsche bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. thus, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. investors shou

15、ld consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision. disclosures and analyst certifications are located in appendix 1. mica(p) 072/04/2012. nov-11dec-11 apr-11 may-11 apr-12 may-12nov-12dec-12 feb-11mar-11feb-12mar-12sep-11 oct-11jan-11 aug-11aug-12 sep-12 oct-12jun-1

16、1 jul-11 jan-12jun-12 jul-12 -20% 10.1 3.5 3.0 8.9 9.3 2.16.1 1.8 1.8 4.7 1.5 5.5 1.5 2 january 2013 hotels / leisure / gaming macau macau stocks share price performance figure 2: relative price perf of db macau share price index vs. msci hk index figure 3: absolute share price perf (jan 11 = 100) 2

17、00 31/12/2012 macau companymkt cap price us$m local cur ytd1m3m6m12m 1900027.hkgalaxy16,34430.4 113%3% 17%60%113% 180 170 160 mpel.oq 2282.hk 1928.hk 0880.hk melco crown mgm china sands china sjm 9,303 6,873 35,263 13,172 16.8 75% 10% 23% 14.0 38% -3% 4% 34.0 55% 3% 17% 18.0 42% -2% 7% 51% 22% 38% 2

18、6% 75% 38% 55% 42% 150 140 130 1128.hk wynn macau macau average msci hk msci china 14,02021.0 7% -5% 0% 55% 1% 11% 12,364.9 24% 1% 5% 62.8 19% 5% 13% 20% 36% 16% 15% 7% 55% 24% 19% 120msci china cons disc224.0 12%5% 22%23%12% 110 msci china cons stap1,202.55% -1% -1%-1%-1% 100 01/11 04/11 07/11 10/1

19、1 01/12 04/12 07/12 10/12 source: deutsche bank calculations, datastream monthly revenue and macro trends figure 4: macau gaming revenue yoy source: deutsche bank, datastream, bloomberg finance lp figure 5: vip and mass gaming revenue yoy mopbn gaming revenue (lhs)yoy change (rhs)mass table + slot r

20、evenue yoy 30 25 20 15 100% 80% 60% 120% 90% 60% vip revenue yoy 40% 10 30% 5 0 -5 jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul-11 jan-12 jul-12 source: deutsche bank, government data figure 6: aerl junkets velocity of money 20% 0% 0% -30% jan-08 jul-08 jan-09 jul-09 jan-10 jul-10 jan-11 jul

21、-11 jan-12 jul-12 source: deutsche bank figure 7: french fine wine price index (secondary market prices of 50 most traded wines) us$bn 4.0 10.4 9.1 9.3 8.4 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.4 vip rolling (lhs) 11.0 8.7 8.8 2.2 1.8 1.9 1.5 7.3 7.3 6.6 1.7 1.8 1.7 velocity of money (rhs) 7.2 6.5 1.9 5.6 5

22、.5 5.0 4.9 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.2 (x) 12 10 8 4.7 6 1.3 4 450.0 425.0 400.0 375.0 350.0 325.0 300.0 dec-28 2012 value +3% since trough in mid nov 1.0275.0 0.5 - 2 0 250.0 jan-11apr-11jul-11oct-11jan-12apr-12jul-12oct-12 source: aerl company announcements, deutsche bank calculations page 2 source: the londo

23、n international vintners exchange the fine wine 50 index is calculated by the london international vintners exchange, whose members in the wine trading and retailing business account for over 75% of global fine wine turnover. the index tracks the daily price movement of the most heavily traded commo

24、dities in the fine wine market; the ten most recent vintages (excluding en primeur, currently 2000-2009) the bordeaux first growths. deutsche bank ag/hong kong jan-09jan-10jan-11apr-09apr-10apr-11jan-12apr-12 jul-08jul-09jul-10jul-11 oct-08oct-09oct-10oct-11 jul-12 oct-12 - - - - 2 january 2013 hote

25、ls / leisure / gaming macau sector valuation figure 8: sector ev/ebitda (based on 12m forward consensus ebitda) (x) 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 source: deutsche bank estimates, ibes consensus, datastream company valuation charts figure 9: galaxy ev/ ebitda vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus ebitda) (x) +1 std d

26、iv avg 11.0 x -1 std div figure 10: melco crown ev/ ebitda vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus ebitda) (x) 20.0 galaxysector average 20.0 melco crownsector average 15.0 +1 std div avg 11.7x 15.0 +1 std div 10.0 -1 std div 10.0 avg 9.9x -1 std div 5.0 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 01/1

27、2 07/12 source: deutsche bank, ibes consensus, datastream figure 11: mgm china ev/ ebitda vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus ebitda) (x) 5.0 01/08 07/08 01/09 07/09 01/10 07/10 01/11 07/11 01/12 07/12 source: deutsche bank, ibes consensus, datastream figure 12: sands china ev/ ebitda vs. sector (on 12

28、m fwd consensus ebitda) (x) 20.0 mgm chinasector average 20.0 sands chinasector average 15.0 15.0 +1 std div avg 13.8x -1 std div 10.0 5.0 +1 std div avg 8.5x -1 std div 10.0 5.0 07/1101/1207/12 01/1007/1001/1107/1101/1207/12 source: deutsche bank, ibes consensus, datastream deutsche bank ag/hong ko

29、ng source: deutsche bank, ibes consensus, datastream page 3 2 january 2013 hotels / leisure / gaming macau figure 13: sjm ev/ ebitda vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus ebitda) (x) figure 14: wynn macau ev/ ebitda vs. sector (on 12m fwd consensus ebitda) (x) 20.0 sjmsector average 20.0 wynn macausector

30、 average 15.015.0 +1 std div avg 13.3x 10.0 +1 std div avg 8.5x 10.0 -1 std div -1 std div 5.0 - 5.0 - 07/0901/1007/1001/1107/1101/1207/1201/1007/1001/1107/1101/1207/12 source: deutsche bank, ibes consensus, datastream market share tables figure 15: overall gaming revenue market share source: deutsc

31、he bank, ibes consensus, datastream 20111q122q123q124q12e2012e1q13e2q13e3q13e4q13e2013e2014e galaxy - starworld - city clubs - galaxy macau melco crown - altira - city of dreams mgm china sands china - venetian macau - sands macau - four seasons macau - sands cotai central sjm - grand lisboa - self

32、promoted casinos - satellite casinos wynn macau industry cotai/taipa peninsula 16% 9% 2% 6% 15% 5% 9% 11% 16% 9% 5% 2% 0% 29% 9% 5% 16% 14% 100% 32% 68% 19% 7% 1% 10% 14% 4% 9% 10% 18% 9% 5% 4% 0% 27% 9% 4% 14% 13% 100% 37% 63% 21% 8% 1% 11% 13% 3% 9% 10% 18% 7% 3% 4% 3% 27% 10% 4% 13% 12% 100% 38%

33、62% 19% 7% 1% 11% 13% 3% 10% 10% 19% 9% 4% 3% 4% 26% 10% 4% 12% 12% 100% 40% 60% 19% 7% 1% 11% 13% 3% 9% 10% 21% 8% 3% 3% 6% 26% 10% 4% 12% 12% 100% 41% 59% 19% 7% 1% 11% 13% 3% 9% 10% 19% 8% 4% 4% 3% 27% 10% 4% 13% 12% 100% 39% 61% 19% 7% 1% 11% 13% 3% 10% 10% 21% 8% 3% 3% 7% 26% 10% 4% 12% 11% 100

34、% 42% 58% 19% 6% 1% 11% 13% 3% 10% 10% 21% 8% 3% 3% 7% 25% 10% 4% 11% 11% 100% 43% 57% 19% 6% 1% 11% 14% 3% 11% 10% 22% 8% 4% 3% 7% 25% 10% 4% 11% 11% 100% 44% 56% 19% 6% 1% 12% 14% 3% 11% 10% 22% 8% 3% 3% 7% 24% 10% 3% 11% 11% 100% 44% 56% 19% 6% 1% 11% 14% 3% 10% 10% 21% 8% 3% 3% 7% 25% 10% 4% 11%

35、 11% 100% 43% 57% 19% 6% 1% 12% 14% 3% 11% 10% 23% 8% 3% 3% 9% 24% 10% 3% 11% 11% 100% 46% 54% source: deutsche bank estimates, company data page 4deutsche bank ag/hong kong 2 january 2013 hotels / leisure / gaming macau figure 16: vip revenue market share 20111q122q123q124q12e2012e1q13e2q13e3q13e4q

36、13e2013e2014e galaxy - starworld - city clubs - galaxy macau melco crown - altira - city of dreams mgm china sands china - venetian macau - sands macau - four seasons macau - sands cotai central sjm - grand lisboa - self promoted casinos - satellite casinos wynn macau industry cotai/taipa peninsula

37、18% 11% 1% 6% 15% 6% 9% 11% 12% 6% 4% 2% 0% 28% 9% 4% 15% 15% 100% 31% 69% 20% 9% 1% 10% 14% 5% 9% 11% 15% 6% 4% 5% 0% 26% 10% 3% 13% 13% 100% 36% 64% 23% 10% 1% 12% 13% 4% 9% 11% 15% 5% 2% 4% 3% 26% 12% 3% 12% 13% 100% 38% 62% 21% 9% 1% 11% 14% 5% 10% 10% 16% 6% 3% 4% 3% 25% 11% 3% 11% 14% 100% 39%

38、 61% 21% 9% 1% 11% 14% 4% 9% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 25% 11% 3% 10% 13% 100% 40% 60% 21% 9% 1% 11% 14% 5% 9% 11% 16% 5% 3% 4% 3% 26% 11% 3% 12% 13% 100% 38% 62% 21% 8% 1% 12% 14% 4% 10% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 5% 24% 11% 3% 10% 13% 100% 40% 60% 21% 8% 1% 12% 14% 4% 10% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 24% 11% 3% 10% 13% 10

39、0% 41% 59% 21% 8% 1% 12% 14% 4% 10% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 5% 23% 11% 3% 10% 12% 100% 41% 59% 21% 8% 1% 12% 15% 4% 11% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 6% 23% 11% 3% 9% 12% 100% 42% 58% 21% 8% 1% 12% 14% 4% 10% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 5% 24% 11% 3% 10% 13% 100% 41% 59% 21% 8% 0% 12% 15% 4% 11% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 6% 23% 11% 2% 9%

40、12% 100% 43% 57% source: deutsche bank estimates, company data figure 17: mass revenue market share 20111q122q123q124q12e2012e1q13e2q13e3q13e4q13e2013e2014e galaxy - starworld - city clubs - galaxy macau melco crown - altira - city of dreams mgm china sands china - venetian macau - sands macau - fou

41、r seasons macau - sands cotai central sjm - grand lisboa - self promoted casinos - satellite casinos wynn macau industry cotai/taipa peninsula 10% 3% 2% 5% 11% 1% 10% 8% 25% 15% 8% 2% 0% 36% 9% 7% 20% 11% 100% 32% 68% 15% 3% 3% 9% 12% 1% 11% 7% 23% 15% 7% 2% 0% 33% 8% 7% 18% 10% 100% 38% 62% 15% 3%

42、3% 9% 11% 1% 10% 8% 25% 13% 6% 2% 4% 32% 8% 6% 18% 9% 100% 40% 60% 16% 3% 3% 10% 11% 1% 10% 7% 27% 14% 6% 1% 5% 31% 8% 6% 17% 9% 100% 42% 58% 16% 3% 3% 10% 11% 1% 10% 7% 26% 13% 4% 1% 8% 31% 8% 6% 17% 8% 100% 44% 56% 15% 3% 3% 10% 11% 1% 10% 7% 25% 14% 6% 2% 4% 32% 8% 6% 17% 9% 100% 40% 60% 16% 3% 2

43、% 11% 11% 1% 10% 7% 27% 12% 4% 1% 9% 31% 8% 6% 17% 8% 100% 45% 55% 16% 3% 2% 11% 12% 1% 11% 7% 28% 12% 5% 1% 10% 29% 8% 5% 16% 8% 100% 46% 54% 16% 3% 2% 11% 13% 1% 12% 7% 29% 12% 5% 1% 10% 29% 8% 6% 15% 8% 100% 48% 52% 16% 3% 2% 11% 13% 1% 12% 7% 28% 12% 5% 1% 10% 28% 8% 5% 15% 8% 100% 49% 51% 16% 3

44、% 2% 11% 12% 1% 11% 7% 28% 12% 5% 1% 10% 29% 8% 6% 16% 8% 100% 46% 54% 17% 3% 2% 12% 12% 1% 11% 7% 31% 12% 5% 1% 13% 28% 8% 5% 14% 7% 100% 49% 51% source: deutsche bank estimates, company data deutsche bank ag/hong kongpage 5 2 january 2013 hotels / leisure / gaming macau figure 18: vip rolling mark

45、et share 20111q122q123q124q12e2012e1q13e2q13e3q13e4q13e2013e2014e galaxy - starworld - city clubs - galaxy macau melco crown - altira - city of dreams mgm china sands china - venetian macau - sands macau - four seasons macau - sands cotai central sjm - grand lisboa - self promoted casinos - satellit

46、e casinos wynn macau industry cotai/taipa peninsula 18% 1% 10% 6% 16% 6% 9% 11% 12% 6% 4% 2% 0% 28% 10% 4% 14% 15% 100% 31% 69% 21% 1% 10% 10% 13% 5% 9% 10% 15% 6% 3% 6% 0% 26% 10% 3% 13% 15% 100% 35% 65% 22% 1% 10% 11% 13% 5% 9% 10% 15% 5% 3% 4% 3% 26% 11% 4% 11% 14% 100% 37% 63% 20% 1% 9% 11% 14%

47、5% 9% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 4% 25% 12% 3% 10% 13% 100% 39% 61% 20% 1% 9% 11% 14% 4% 10% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 25% 12% 3% 10% 13% 100% 39% 61% 21% 1% 9% 11% 14% 5% 9% 10% 16% 5% 3% 5% 3% 26% 11% 3% 11% 14% 100% 38% 62% 20% 1% 9% 11% 14% 4% 10% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 25% 11% 3% 10% 12% 100% 40% 60% 21% 1% 9% 12

48、% 15% 4% 10% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 24% 11% 3% 10% 12% 100% 41% 59% 21% 1% 8% 12% 15% 4% 11% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 24% 11% 3% 10% 12% 100% 42% 58% 21% 1% 8% 12% 15% 4% 11% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 5% 23% 11% 3% 9% 12% 100% 42% 58% 21% 1% 8% 12% 15% 4% 10% 11% 17% 5% 3% 4% 5% 24% 11% 3% 10% 12% 100% 41% 59% 21% 1

49、% 8% 12% 16% 4% 11% 11% 18% 5% 3% 4% 6% 23% 12% 2% 9% 12% 100% 43% 57% source: deutsche bank estimates, company data page 6deutsche bank ag/hong kong 1. 2. 6. 7. 8. 1. 2. 6. 7. 2 january 2013 hotels / leisure / gaming macau appendix 1 important disclosures additional information available upon reque

50、st disclosure checklist company melco crown mgm china sands china sjm wynn macau ticker mpel.oq 2282.hk 1928.hk 0880.hk 1128.hk recent price* 16.84 (usd) 31 dec 12 13.96 (hkd) 31 dec 12 34.00 (hkd) 31 dec 12 18.00 (hkd) 31 dec 12 20.95 (hkd) 31 dec 12 disclosure 1,2,7,8 1,6,7,8,14,17 na na 1,2,6,7,8

51、,14 *prices are sourced from local exchanges via reuters, bloomberg and other vendors. data is sourced from deutsche bank and subject companies important disclosures required by u.s. regulators disclosures marked with an asterisk may also be required by at least one jurisdiction in addition to the u

52、nited states. see important disclosures required by non-us regulators and explanatory notes. within the past year, deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering for this company, for which it received fees. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a

53、market in securities issued by this company. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any class of common equity securities of this company calculated under computational methods required by us law. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this co

54、mpany for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) expects to receive, or intends to seek, compensation for investment banking services from this company in the next three months. 14. deutsche bank and/or its affil

55、iate(s) has received non-investment banking related compensation from this company within the past year. important disclosures required by non-u.s. regulators please also refer to disclosures in the important disclosures required by us regulators and the explanatory notes. within the past year, deut

56、sche bank and/or its affiliate(s) has managed or co-managed a public or private offering for this company, for which it received fees. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) makes a market in securities issued by this company. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) owns one percent or more of any clas

57、s of common equity securities of this company calculated under computational methods required by us law. deutsche bank and/or its affiliate(s) has received compensation from this company for the provision of investment banking or financial advisory services within the past year. 17. deutsche bank an

58、d or/its affiliate(s) has a significant non-equity financial interest (this can include bonds, convertible bonds, credit derivatives and traded loans) where the aggregate net exposure to the following issuer(s), or issuer(s) group, is more than 25m euros. deutsche bank ag/hong kongpage 7 securitypri

59、ce 1.8. 2.9. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 2 january 2013 hotels / leisure / gaming macau for disclosures pertaining to recommendations or estimates made on securities other than the primary subject of this research, please see the most recently published company report or visit our global disclosure look-up page

60、on our website at http:/ analyst certification the views expressed in this report accurately reflect the personal views of the undersigned lead analyst about the subject issuers and the securities of those issuers. in addition, the undersigned lead analyst has not and will not receive any compensati