投资策略双周报：有待下一步130218

1、） 投资策略双周报 证券研究报告 2013 年 2 月 18 日 常宇亮，cfa 分析员，sac 执业证书编号： s0080511030016 刘刚 分 析 员 ， sac 执 业 证 书 编 号 ： s0080512030003 h 股市场研究部 有待下一步 保持谨慎，等待进一步确认 h 股市场（msci 中国指数）在春节前一周下跌了 2.7%，显著低于 20022012 年间同期历史回报中值 3.1%的水平。 我们在 2 月 4 日发表的 h 股策略双周报维持谨慎，静待时机中关于股市春节效应事件分析也发现，春节假期后 的市场的回报通常较为平淡。我们维持短期对 h 股相对谨慎的观点，考虑到目

2、前市场对未来国内增长的预期已经不 低，我们希望等待更为明确的信号以证实目前市场当前对未来增长前景的乐观预期后，再考虑大幅提高组合的风险 敞口。我们重点关注的是 3 月 314 日召开的两会（观察有关改革的线索），以及 3 月 8 日15 日公布的 12 月份国内 宏观经济数据（寻找经济增长重拾升势的信号）。同时，我们对密切关注近期一些国际事件，如日本、澳洲、英国央 行以及美联储的会议纪要（2 月 1921 日），意大利大选（2 月 2425 日），以及 3 月 1 日即将开始实施的美国财政自 动减赤等。 货币供应充裕，但融资成本仍居高不下 中国方面，国家统计局公布的一月份 cpi 和 ppi

3、数据基本符合预期，分别为 2%和-1.6%，而货币数据却明显超出预期， 其中新增银行贷款 1.1 万亿人民币，m1 和 m2 增速分别为 15.3和 15.9，以及创纪录的 2.5 万亿人民币的社会融资 总量。虽然这或多或少和去年春节错位有一些关系（2012 年春节在 1 月下旬，因此基数较低），但这一融资规模从任 何标准来看都是非常可观的。具体来看，社会融资总量大幅增加的主要贡献是来自于银行贷款和承兑汇票（图 1）， 这与历年年初由于新批贷款额度带来大额贷款增加的规律一致。但是，我们注意到 1 月份贷款占社会融资总量的比例 只有 42%（图 2），是过去 10 年以来的最低点，这表明银行贷款

4、这一相对便宜的融资方式对国内实体经济的支持力度 在下降。实际情况也的确如此，以 6 个月票据贴现利率来近似代表实体经济融资成本，我们看到该指标仍维持在 5.1% 的高位，远远高于 09 年上半年 1.6%的水平（图 53），当时较低的资金成本主要是由于银行贷款极其充裕（2009 年 1 月贷款占社会融资总量比例为 116，其他融资方式为净减少）。鉴于此，我们认为不必对 1 月份大规模的社会融资 感到过于兴奋，我们可能还需要更多的政策支持，确实降低实体融资成本之后，企业部门才能见到更强劲也更为持久 的盈利复苏。 香港市场卖空交易再度活跃，股票再融资升温 h 股市场方面，我们提醒投资者特别关注近期

5、的两个趋势：1）港股市场卖空交易再度活跃。卖空成交额占市场总成 交金额比例大幅快速回升，最新 5 天平均水平已经超出了 10%的警戒线，这表明不少投资者已经开始调整仓位，为市 场下跌做好准备。从历史规律来看，卖空成交占比和 h 股指数（hscei）往往存在非常显著的负相关性，因此我们将 密切监控这一指标（图 3）；2）在前期市场强劲反弹后，股票市场再融资开始升温，包括配股、增发、主要股东套现 等。分行业看，近期上涨幅度较大的板块如银行、房地产、汽车等等 9 月以来的再融资金额居前（图 4）。在我们看 来，这表明公司管理层或部份大股东在当前股价水平上无需过多犹豫即愿意增加股票供给以满足公众投资者

6、近期的热 烈需求。值得注意的是，历史规律表明，大规模股票再融资后，h 股市场指数往往出现回调（图 5）。此外，我们还 看到，对于一定规模以上的 h 股（市值大于 10 亿美元）来说，再融资后 13 月内股价取得正收益的可能性低于 50%， 而历史回报中值为-1%（图 6）。 最后，h 股 2012 年报公布期将近，大多数公司将从 3 月中旬开始发布业绩。与此同时，许多公司已经预先披露了业 绩预告。通过分析 2012 年报 a 股和 h 股的盈利预告情况，我们发现相比 2012 年上半年，盈利预喜的公司占比明显 上升而负面预警的公司占比有所收窄，这也证实了我们先前预计 2012 年下半年盈利将出

7、现环比复苏的预期（参见我 们于 9 月 23 日发表的策略报告布局复苏：2012 年四季度 h 股投资策略。目前我们对 2012 年 h 股整体盈利增 长的预测是 3.3%，其中非金融行业-5.9%，金融行业 14%。更多分析请参考第 35 页的“追踪 2012 年报业绩预告”。 注释：此报告为 h 股策略双周报“more steps needed”的中文翻译版，原文以英文撰写，已于的中文翻译版，原文以英文撰写，已于 2 月 18 日正式出版。 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 jul-10jul-11 may-10may-11may-12 mar-10nov-10sep-10jan-10

8、mar-11nov-11sep-11jan-11mar-12 jul-12 nov-12 jan-12 sep-12jan-13 ener g jan-11feb-11mar-11apr-11 may-11 jun-11 jul-11 aug-11sep-11oct-11nov-11 dec-11 jan-12feb-12mar-12apr-12 may-12 jun-12 jul-12 aug-12sep-12oct-12nov-12 dec-12 jan-13feb-13mar-13 ba rea insu r lest at anc e util ities fina nc au ia

9、to ls nim trend likely to diverge among peers in 2h12, but positive outlook in 1q13. top picks: hsbc, bochk, dsf sg banks: the aggregate constant currency loan growth of 9.7% in fy12 is in line with singapore banks managements fy1213 loan growth guidance. we maintain overweight stance, with dbs as o

10、ur top pick. 1. for february, we maintain our accumulate rating on chinas insurance sector after downgrading the sector on january 8. abc (01288.hk, buy, tp hk$4.21) crcb (03618.hk, accum, tp hk$4.7) hsbc (00005.hk, accum, tp hk$93.92) bochk (02388.hk, accum, tp hk$29.4) dsf (00440.hk, accum, tp hk$

11、46.07) dbs (dbs.sp, accum, tp sg$16.5) insuranceinsurers2. we suggest over-weighting insurers with the highest investment portfolios in thecpic (02601.hk, accum, tp hk$33) banking sector and cpic-a/-h with its solid fundamentals. we also suggest equal- weighting ctih-h and under-weighting china life

12、 a/h and nci a/h. 1. h-share brokers are at 31.7x 2013e p/e and 1.94x 2013e p/b. securitiessecurities2. we continue to see limited upside room for h-share brokers so keep citic-h and haitong-h at accumulate. 1. we believe the positives from an improving financing environment are mostly priced in and

13、 see more odds on the downside than upside for h-share property. 2. we reiterate our near-term cautious stance and recommend investors take longfor (00960.hk, buy, tp hk$19.5) greentown (03900.hk, buy, tp hk$16.8) real estatereal estateprofits on stocks with relatively weak fundamentals and that hav

14、e had the strongest rally in the past few months. 3. our pecking order: longfor, greentown, sunac china, shenzhen investment, sunac china (01918.hk, buy, tp hk$8.6) shenzhen investment (00604.hk, buy, tp hk$4) sino ocean (03377.hk, accum, tp hk$7.8) sino ocean, crland, coli, franshion, and r the lau

15、nch of china gold etf may also be a catalyst for gold stocks. 1. cement stocks rally to extend to a visible cement price hike post-cny. we favor cnbm, conch and asia cement among h-shares. 2. given the visible price hike, we raise our 2013 earnings forecasts and accordingly raise our tps for conch,

16、cnbm and asia cement to hk$35, 16 and 5.5, implying 2013e p/e of 16x, 8x and 7x before the peak season arrives. 1. among h-shares, an steel and magangs valuation recovered to 0.7x and 0.6x p/b, at a 20% premium and 5% discount to a-shares. 2. we believe the expectation for economic recovery has been

17、 fully priced in; since industrial earnings can hardly expand and results can hardly improve, there is some room for shorting. anton oilfield (03337.hk, buy, tp hk$4.5) spt energy (01251.hk, buy, tp hk$4.5) honghua (00196.hk, buy, tp hk$4.0) cosl (02883.hk, buy, tp hk$20) hilong (01623.hk, buy, tp h

18、k$3.8) yitai coal (03948.hk, buy, tp hk$53.2) china shenhua (01088.hk, buy, tp hk$35.2) vinda (03331.hk, buy, tp hk$13.5) hengan (01044.hk, buy, tp hk$87.5) china moly (03993.hk, accum, tp hk$3.4) jiangxi copper (00358.hk, accum, tp hk$21.2) cnbm (03323.hk, buy, tp hk$16) anhui conch (00914.hk, buy,

19、 tp hk$35) asia cement (00743.hk, buy, tp hk$5.5) angang (00347.hk, hold, tp hk$4) maanshan (00323.hk, hold, tp hk$1.84) construction engineering 1. we advise focusing on stocks driven by central government policies in 1h13 and those with local-government impetus in 2h13 (e.g. cccc-h). 2. railway co

20、nstruction is likely to outperform until 1q13; stay with crg and cut 2013 eps forecasts by 2.7%/20.4%. we advise investors to trade zoomlion-h between a range of hk$812. to reflect weaker-than-expected demand and a worsening industry competitivedongfang elec. (01072.hk, reduce, tp electrical equipme

21、nt landscape, we downgrade harbin power equip. from buy to hold and shanghai electric from hold to reduce, and maintain our call to reduce dongfang electric. hk$8.8) shanghai elec. (02727.hk, reduce, tp hk$1.7) 下页继续 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 7 railways airports / airlines ports marine hardware internet ret

22、ail hk$0.6) power 中金公司研究部：2013 年 2 月 18 日 图表 17: 中金行业观点总结以及股票建议(续表) sectorsub-sectorsector analyst viewstop picksstocks to avoid reform may bring trading opportunities: 1) railway reform may begin after new government take over in mar. 2) we expect the separation of government body with enterprise e

23、ntity, but no much big progress in 2013. we remain optimistic about airlines as earnings bottomed in 2012 and supply and demand may moderately recover in 2013; we expect earnings to rise 3040% as airfares edge up on recovery of business travel, oil prices could drop and oil rmb might appreciate slig

24、htly. maintain buy on air china. continue to favor hub airports. maintain accumulate for bcia, but suggest taking profits as it faces capacity bottleneck and already has a relatively high valuation. bcia (00694.hk, buy, tp hk$6.39) air china (00753.hk, buy, tp hk$7.73) transportation toll roads now

25、chinas road density is almost comparable to u.s. level, with low utilization. railway diversion makes the traffic growth outlook even worse. government lacks the incentive to maintain toll level if they want to lower the logistics costs in china. 1. given that container throughput growth in 2013 wil

26、l be higher than 2012, and cimc will also do better this year, earnings recovery is sure thing. 2. since cosco pacific is trading at fair value and limited downside, any high- than-expected export data could drive share price. we maintain our neutral view of the sector. however, we now suggest profi

27、t taking after the recent rally as we did not see any fundamental upside surprise in china merchants (00144.hk, sell, tp hk$17.6) transportnthe near term. we expect second bout of opportunity likely to appear at end-2013 to reflect start of a tepid shipping sector recovery in 2014. software: we expe

28、ct the average labor cost for the china it software outsourcing industry to rise 57% in 2012. a 5% increase in labor costs could hurt net profit i.t. software accumulate skyworth and tcl multimedia on rising smart tv popularity and strong sales growth. 1. watch opportunities in 1q13 and 3q13. we are

29、 not optimistic on industry fundamentals and advise investors to focus more on timing and stock selection. 2. for h-shares, we prefer intime (breakthroughs in shopping malls and online shopping) and golden eagle. sunart has the most solid fundamentals among haier electronics (01169.hk, buy, tp hk$11

30、.5) skyworth (00751.hk, accum, tp hk$5) tcl (01070.hk, accum, tp hk5.6) intime (01833.hk, buy, tp hk$12.25) parkson (03368.hk, hold, tp hk$5.85) golden eagle (03308.hk, accum, tp hk$18.85) gome (00493.hk, sell, hk tp$ 0.77) supermarket companies, but valuation and expectations are elevated. we do no

31、t like gome and parkson. 1. overall 1h12 results lower than expected with terminal sales under pressure.anta (02020.hk, sell, tp hk$4.0) textiles cu launched its on october 18. telecom services telecom services we believe the mass-market war is the right strategy and is positive to cu and ct, but qu

32、ite negative to cm. 2. we are negative on cm in 4q as the mass-market war has started and iphone5 china telecom (00728.hk, buy, tp hk$6.0) china mobile (00941.hk, reduce, tp hk$75.0) will be launched. utilities city utilities wind: sector headwinds remain the obstacle to a sustainable rally. order o

33、f preference: huaneng renewables and longyuan power. gas: we expect the sectors strong performance to continue in 2012. order of preference: behl, cr gas, enn, towngas and china gas. water and environmental: policy likely to support healthy growth, and water tariff hikes might be the catalyst. order

34、 of preference: cei, bew, gdte, gdi and cwa. 1. we expect thermal output to grow by 01% yoy and thermal utilization to drop behl (00392.hk, buy, tp hk$60) cei (00257.hk, buy, tp hk$4.8) bew (00371.hk, buy, tp hk$2.2) gdte (01296. hk, buy, tp hk$2) cr gas (01193.hk, buy, tp hk$17.0) enn (02688.hk, ac

35、cum, tp hk$32.0) towngas (01083.hk, accum, tp hk$6) cwa (00855.hk, hold, tp hk$2.0) by some 6% yoy in 2012. we maintain our 2012/13 china power consumption growth forecast to be +5.5% and +7.0% yoy. 2. we reiterate buy on huaneng due to its coastal area exposure, decent dividend payout and nature of

36、 pure thermal generator. we also maintain buy on cr power huaneng (00902.hk, buy, tp hk$7.0) crp (00836.hk, buy, tp hk$20) with its visible profitability improvement and healthy balance sheet. we maintain hold on datang and huadian. 资料来源：彭博资讯, 中金公司研究部 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 8 may-12 aug-12 apr-12jun-12

37、jul-12 sep-12nov-12 dec-12feb-12 mar-12 jan-13oct-12 aug-12 apr-12jun-12jul-12 feb-12sep-12 may-12 mar-12nov-12 dec-12jan-13 oct-12feb-12aug-12 apr-12jun-12jul-12 sep-12 may-12 nov-12 dec-12jan-13 oct-12mar-12 中金公司研究部：2013 年 2 月 18 日 市场表现 图表 18: h 股最近两周下跌 1.2%，尽管在农历蛇年开始 的两天内上涨 1.5% 图表 19: msci 中国指数

38、2013 年至今上涨 3.2%，略微低 于 1 月份中出现的 52 周高点 cons. disc. i.t. transportation healthcare utilities capital goods materials 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 3.9% msci china index level 70 2013 ytd return: +3.2% 65 60 55 (hk$mn) 100 52-wk high: jan 18, 2013 90 80 70 60 50 cons. stap. telcos div. financials -0.0%

39、 -0.4% -0.5% 50 +28% 52-wk low: sep 5, 2012 40 30 msci china banks insurance -2.5% -3.2% -1.2% 45 40 52-wk performance 20 10 0 energy real estate -3.4% -3.9% 2-wk performance 图表 20: 纺织服装、电脑以及水务等板块在过去两周中 跑赢 图表 21: 电信、通信设备、零售和房地产过去两周中表 现落后 textiles & apparel computers water utilities paper & forest el

40、ectrical equip. automobiles beverages pharmaceuticals marine 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 7.3% 7.0% div. telecom comm. equip. multiline retail real estate mgmt oil & gas electronic equip. insurance food retailing banks -5.6% -5.2% -4.5% -3.9% -3.5% -3.4% -3.2% -2.5% -2.5% household durables4.8

41、% 2-wk performance metals & mining 2-wk performance -1.6% 图表 22: 过去两周中，msci 中国指数周期性板块和防御 性板块表现基本持平 图表 23: 从 2012 年 12 月中旬以来，msci 中国指数小 盘股表面优于大盘股 (rebased)cyclicals over defensives (rhs)mxcn cyclicalsmxcn defensives(ppt)(rebased) large over small (rhs)mxcn large capmxcn small cap (ppt) 130 120 52-wk

42、performance cyclicals outperform 40 30 20 130 120 large-caps outperform 12 8 110 100 10 0 -10 110 100 4 0 90 80 -20 -30 90 small-caps outperform-4 -8 70 defensives outperform -40 -50 80 52-wk performance -12 资料来源：彭博资讯, factset, msci, 中金公司研究部 注：“周期性板块”包括可选消费、资本品、能源、it、原材料及交通；“防御性板块”包括日常消费、医疗保健、电信及公共事

43、业。 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 9 中金公司研究部：2013 年 2 月 18 日 图表 24: 过去两周表现最佳 / 最差的 10 只股票（市 值 us$20 亿美元, 日均成交量us$200 万美元） 图表 25: 年初至今表现最佳 / 最差的 10 只股票（市 值 us$20 亿美元, 日均成交量us$200 万美元） company name top performers huaneng renewables corp. byd co. ltd. sino biopharmaceutical ltd. baoxin auto china everbright interna

44、tional ltd. weifu high-technology co. ltd. geely automobile holdings co. ltd. xinyi glass holdings ltd. beijing enterprises water group ltd. shenzhou international group holdings ltd. ticker 958 hk 1211 hk 1177 hk 1293 hk 257 hk 200581 ch 175 hk 868 hk 371 hk 2313 hk sector utilities consumer discre

45、tionary health care consumer discretionary industrials consumer discretionary consumer discretionary consumer discretionary utilities consumer discretionary 2w return 37% 24% 18% 14% 13% 12% 12% 12% 11% 11% ytd return 54% 38% 26% 43% 24% 38% 26% 19% 10% 24% company name top performers chongqing chan

46、gan automobile co. ltd. truly international holdings ltd. huaneng renewables corp. yashili international holdings ltd. melco international development ltd. baoxin auto lao feng xiang co. ltd. gcl-poly energy holdings ltd. biostime international holdings ltd. hangzhou steam turbine co., ltd. ticker 2

47、00625 ch 732 hk 958 hk 1230 hk 200 hk 1293 hk 900905 ch 3800 hk 1112 hk 200771 ch sector consumer discretionary information technology utilities consumer staples consumer discretionary consumer discretionary consumer discretionary information technology consumer staples industrials 2w return 5% 9% 3

48、7% 11% -5% 14% -4% 4% 4% 2% ytd return 87% 61% 54% 47% 43% 43% 41% 40% 40% 39% bottom performers bottom performers yantai changyu pioneer wine co., ltd. baidu, inc. hopson development holdings ltd. soho china ltd. china unicom (hong kong) ltd. china vanke co. ltd. sino-ocean land holdings ltd. y, in

49、c. china shenhua energy co. ltd. longfor properties co. ltd. 200869 ch bidu us 754 hk 410 hk 762 hk 200002 ch 3377 hk yoku us 1088 hk 960 hk consumer staples information technology financials financials telecommunication servic financials financials information technology energy financials -15% -13%

50、 -12% -11% -8% -8% -8% -8% -8% -7% -11% -6% 11% -1% -7% 22% -2% 18% -9% -11% li & fung ltd. china foods ltd. renhe commercial holdings co. ltd. parkson retail group ltd. foxconn international holdings ltd. golden eagle retail group ltd. hunan nonferrous metals corp. ltd. sany heavy equipment intl ne

51、w oriental edu & tech longfor properties co. ltd. 494 hk 506 hk 1387 hk 3368 hk 2038 hk 3308 hk 2626 hk 631 hk edu us 960 hk consumer discretionary consumer staples financials consumer discretionary information technology consumer discretionary materials industrials consumer discretionary financials

52、 -5% -19% -3% -13% -3% -3% 1% -5% -2% -7% -25% -25% -17% -17% -16% -16% -16% -14% -12% -11% 图表 26: msci 中国指数各板块过去两周表现最佳/最差的 10 只股票 sector tickercompany name 2w return ytd return tickercompany name 2w return ytd return top performersbottom performers consumer discretionary1211 hk byd co. ltd.24.2%38%

53、3368 hk parkson retail group ltd.-13.1%-17% consumer staples168 hktsingtao brewery co., ltd.5.5%2%506 hkchina foods ltd.-19.1%-25% energy2883 hk china oilfield services ltd.3.5%7%1088 hk china shenhua energy co. ltd.-7.6%-9% financials3360 hk far east horizon ltd.3.3%-1%410 hksoho china ltd.-11.1%-1

54、% health care460 hksihuan pharmaceutical holdings group ltd.5.2%6%1066 hk shandong weigao group medical polymer-0.7%-3% industrials3898 hk zhuzhou csr times electric co. ltd.9.2%-5%1800 hk china communications construction co. ltd.-3.1%2% information technology992 hklenovo group ltd.7.0%26%763 hkzte

55、 corp.-5.2%8% materials1208 hk minmetals resources ltd.10.0%13%2899 hk zijin mining group co. ltd.-6.4%-8% telecommunication services utilities 552 hk 916 hk china communications services corp. ltd. china longyuan power group corp. ltd. 6.1% 8.9% 13% 35% 762 hk 902 hk china unicom (hong kong) ltd. h

56、uaneng power international, inc. -8.4% -1.5% -7% 9% msci china1211 hk byd co. ltd.24.2%38%506 hkchina foods ltd.-19.1%-25% 图表 27: 东南亚市场领跑，上证指数春节假期前上涨 0.6%；s&p 500 上涨 0.4%而欧洲微跌 0.3% 图表 28: 原油小幅上涨 0.8%，工业金属普遍下跌，黄金 重挫 3.4%；波罗的海干散货指数大体持平 indonesia (jci) 2.9%gasoline2.6% australia (as51) thailand (set) s

57、outh korea (kospi) taiwan (twse) 0.6% 1.5% 1.2% 2.3% aluminum heating oil crude oil 2.0% 1.6% 0.8% china (shcomp) us (s&p500) us (nasdaq) japan (nky) us (dow jones) singapore (fssti) europe (stoxx 600) uk (ukx) canada (sptsx) hong kong (hsi) msci china (mxcn) usx china (hxc) -0.2% -0.2% -0.2% -0.3%

58、-0.3% -0.6% -1.2% -1.2% -1.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% baltic dry lead copper nickel crb wheat soybean gold natural gas -0.7% -1.0% -1.3% -2.2% -3.0% -3.4% -3.4% -4.5% 0.4% india (sensex) russian (micex) brazil (ibx) -2.5% -2.7% -1.6% 2-wk performance corn silver -5.1% -6.4% 2-wk performance 资料来源：彭博资讯, factse

59、t, msci, 中金公司研究部 请仔细阅读在本报告尾部的重要法律声明 10 jun-05jun-06jun-07jun-08jun-09jun-10jun-11 dec-04dec-05dec-06dec-07dec-08dec-09dec-10dec-11jun-12dec-12 mscichina insurance i.t. cons.stap.realestatecons.disc. healthcare banks utilities div.financials capitalgoods materials energy transportation telcos transportation healthcare div.financials capitalgoods mscichinacons.stap. insurance telcos utilities cons.disc. materials energy banks i.t. aug-11feb-11aug-12 apr-11jun-10apr-12jun-12 jul-10jul-11jul-12 sep-10sep-11 may-10may-11 nov-11mar-12dec-10dec-11nov-12dec-12feb-13 jan-11mar-10jan-12oct-10oct-12 rea