2012配合亮丽的色彩

De-riskingtheBroadbandBusinessModelIndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London.,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,TechnologyEconomicsTechnology,DeutscheTelekom.,Changingbusinessmodels,2,MobileOperatorGarden,CSVoice,SMS,MobileData,Network,SIM,Billing,50700MHz,Cloud,SIM,“New”Billing,Whitespace,OTTApps,Coolstuff,Smartdevices,Regulation,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,AtypicalmobiledatatrafficdayinEurope.,3,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,00:00,10:00,12:00,22:00,17:00,Illustration,6:00,8:00,voice,data,Work,Home,OntheGo,Home,OntheGo,EUBroadbandforAll&EverythingDigitalAgendaEurope2020.,4,2013+2yrs,2011now,AllEuropeanshaveaccesstoBroadband(wireless),Allhaveaccessto30Mbpsorhigher.,2020+9yrs,50+%HHsubscribeto100Mbps.,80%HSPApopcoverage,60%3Gadaptation,20%HSPAadaptation,50%FTTH/DOCSISx,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,+IoT1,1IoT=InternetofThings.,Closingcoveragegap,DigitalAgendaEurope2020.Whatdoesitmean.,5,By2013atleast30kHSPABTStocovertheEU20+%popgap.,By2020most(ifnotall)basestationssupportLTEadvanced(15todaysfixedbroadbandearnings.,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Internet-of-Things(IoT)Networkforthe15+Billionprojecteddevices1,1InEuropeforeverymobiledevicetherewillbe20+IoTdevicesin2020.,900MHz235MHz(GSM),1800MHz275MHz(GSM),2100MHz260MHz3Gcoreband,3G,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,2600MHz270MHz+50MHz(TDD)(Techneutral),70,Spectrumchallenge2012-Pre-auctiondays.,page6,10,FBO1,20,FBO2,10,20,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,IllustrationUplinkonlyAllFDD,Un-usedspectrum,MNO1,MNO2,MNO3,Note:MNO=MobileNetworkOperator&FBO=Fixed-BroadbandOperator.,10,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,900MHz235MHz(GSM),1800MHz275MHz(GSM),2100MHz260MHz3Gcoreband,3G,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,2600MHz270MHz+50MHz(TDD)(Techneutral),70,Spectrumchallenge2012-Pre-auctiondays.,page7,10,FBO1,20,FBO2,10,20,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,IllustrationUplinkonlyAllFDD,Un-usedspectrum,MNO1,MNO2,MNO3,Note:MNO=MobileNetworkOperator&FBO=Fixed-BroadbandOperator.,10,BillionsofEuroinmobilenetworkassets.2Gand3Gtightlyintegrated.By2012stillmorethan20%on2G.No100%3Gpop/geocoverage.,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,900MHz235MHz(Techneutral),1800MHz275MHz(Techneutral),2100MHz260MHz3Gcoreband,3G,5,MNO2,MNO3,MNO1,3G,3G,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,2600MHz270MHz+50MHz(TDD)(Techneutral),70,Spectrumchallenge2012majordisruptionpossible.,page8,10,FBO1,20,FBO2,10,20,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,5,5,5,5,5,5,2G(LTE),5,LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),5,5,5,5,5,5,LTE,5,2G(LTE),LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,5,5,5,5,5,5,LTE,5,800MHz230MHz(Techneutral),LTE,5,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,5,5,5,5,5,IllustrationUplinkonlyAllFDD,Note:MNO=MobileNetworkOperator&FBO=Fixed-BroadbandOperator.,Greenfieldreservation,Securemin.210MHz,Securemin.210MHz,Securemin.220+MHz,Securemin.220+MHz,MNO2loosespectrumgame!,10,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,900MHz235MHz(Techneutral),1800MHz275MHz(Techneutral),2100MHz260MHz3Gcoreband,3G,5,MNO2,MNO3,MNO1,3G,3G,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,5,2600MHz270MHz+50MHz(TDD)(Techneutral),70,Spectrumchallenge2012majordisruptionpossible.,page9,10,FBO1,20,FBO2,10,20,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,2G(3G),3G,5,5,5,5,5,5,2G(LTE),5,LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),LTE,2G(LTE),5,5,5,5,5,5,LTE,5,2G(LTE),LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,5,5,5,5,5,5,LTE,5,800MHz230MHz(Techneutral),LTE,5,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,LTE,5,5,5,5,5,IllustrationUplinkonlyAllFDD,Note:MNO=MobileNetworkOperator&FBO=Fixed-BroadbandOperator.,Greenfieldreservation,Securemin.210MHz,Securemin.210MHz,Securemin.220+MHz,Securemin.220+MHz,MNO2loosespectrumgame!,Newentrantbuyingexistingincumbentspectrum.Possible(catastrophic)lossofspectrum.(catastrophic)LossofValueandOperation.LossoffuturegrowthpossibilitiesinLTE.,10,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,De-riskingdisruptivespectrummoves.,10,Spectrumpartnershipalliance(s).,Valueatriskgameratherthanincrementalvalueaddplay.,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Higherdegreeofnetworkin-dependenceNetworkFactory/Sharing.,Spectraldemandcouldexceedspectralefficiencybetween2014-2016.,Whendatademandexceedsspectralefficiencygains.”Houstonwehaveproblems”.,11,1Mobileoperatorwith(1)20MHz800MHz(LTE),(2)20MHz900MHz(2GHSPA),(3)50MHz1800MHz(2GLTE),(4)30MHz2100MHz(HSPA+).Totalspectrumposition120MHz.,IllustrationoftheEuropeanmarket1,(*)realWirelessreportforOfcom,:4GCapacityGains,FinalReport,January2011.,3GLTELTE-aConversion,Leapfrognetworkcapacity,e.g.,DensificationsmartantennasEarlyLTEdeploymentPrice,Control&Policy.Morespectrum.,Thespectrumcrunch.,AlotmoreComplexity,CapexandOpex,NOTGOODATALL!,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,OTTMobileAppsimpact.MobileApps“attacks”thehighestmarginservices.,12,22.41,12.7,1Source2010&2015PyramidResearchSeptember2011WesternEurope.,2010AMNOCentricARPU,15.7Voice,3.4SMS,3.3Data,6.5Voice,6.21Data,By2015morethan70%ofusershaveasmartphone,ARPU,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,13.0Voice,3.8SMS,2015EMobileCentricARPU,6.21Data,23.0,OTTMobileAppsimpact.MobileApps“attacks”thehighestmarginservices.,13,22.41,12.7,1Source2010&2015PyramidResearchSeptember2011WesternEurope.,2010AMNOCentricARPU,2015EAppsCentricARPU,15.7Voice,3.4SMS,3.3Data,6.5Voice,6.21Data,?,By2015morethan70%ofusershaveasmartphone,+9.7+DataARPU,ARPU,MoIPDeathtoSMS.,+43%,VoIPHome&maybeWork.,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Traffic&revenuechangesinthelast12month.,14,IllustrationoftheEuropeanMarket,DecliningMinutes,DecliningSMS,IncreasingData,DecliningARPU(andtop-line),#Customers,#Customers,#Customers,#Customers,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Howtoupliftthemobiledatabusinesscase.Demandfornewrevenue,partnerships&collaborationmodels.,15,Economicsofmobiledata,FreeCashFlow,MobileBusinessmodelbreakdown,Innovation,Increasedspectrumavailability.EarlyLTEdeployment.MobileFixedpartnershipmodels.,Structuraloff-loading1,NetworkAPIs.Smarter&networkfriendlierdevices.Femtocells.,NetworkAwareApps&Devices,InternetofThingsLocation/Notifications/PaymentsCustomerinsights,Newrevenuestreams,HSPAonly,noLTE,HSPA+LTEw.50%off-loadfrom2012,IllustrationoftheEuropeanmarket,1Note:off-loadingheremeansanytrafficmigrationfromlegacytechnologyorlegacyspectrumbandstosomethingelse.,LTE,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Newmobilerevenueopportunitiesmakinguplost.Howbigwillthepieceofthecakebe?,16,MobileRevenues$1,200Bn,InternetofThings$1,200Bn?,SocialMedia$30+Bn,MobileEntertain$55+Bn,OnlineAds$100+Bn,Handsets$340+Bn,Apps$12+Bn,1Sources:AppsfromBergInsight(2011),SocialMediafromGartner(2011),MobileEntertainmentfromJuniperResearch(2011),OnlineAddsfromMagnaGlobal(2011),HandsetsfromMarketsandMarkets(2011),InternetofThingsfromGSMA(2011).,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Synchednotification,Ad-hocoptimizedroute,Vision-networkawaremobileapps(1of2).Innovationisimportantremedytomitigaterisk.,17,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Optimizedservicedelivery,TrafficProfile,voice,data,Primaryindoorusageoff-loadpossibilities.,Off-busy-hourIn-filldelivery.,NEvents,vs1Event,Vision-networkawaremobileapps(2of2).CollaborationacrossNetwork,DeviceandApps.,18,Smart(interconnected)devices,Self-Optimized&CognisantNetwork,NetworkoptimizedOS&Apps,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,WhenNetworkisNOTadifferentiator.SUBSTANTIALfinancialbenefits.NOTasolutiontospectrumCRUNCH.COMPLEXGovernance.,Decreasingmargins&increasingcashpressureNetworkconsolidation&newpartnerships.,19,Sharinglogic,Experience.,Economics,Rollout5+years,LTE,HSPA+,HSPA,UMTS+GSM(LTE),SignificantCapexprevention.SubstantialOpexprevention.Bestnetworkmoreforless.,Rollout,LittleCapexbenefits.SubstantialOpexsavings.Highwrite-off&restructurecost.,SteadyState,Capexprevention(sharingofmodernization).SubstantialOpexsavings.Minorwrite-off&contractterminationcost.,Modernization,Dr.KimKyllesbechLarsen,IndustryOutlook2012,November24th2011,London,UK.,Transparentoff-loadingstrategies.Inside-outcoveragewithin-homebackhaulconnectivity(i.e.,viaVDSL,Fiber,).Honestalways-best-connectedoffers.,FixedMobileConvergence.Technology&business