《船舶安全管理》课件ppt：第二章 现代安全管理理论及应用

第二章 现代安全管理理论及应用l 第一节 安全系统工程（ safety system engineering）系统和系统工程（ system事件数分析 ETA(Event Tree Analysis);事故数分析 FTA(Fault Tree Analysis).What is Risk Analysisl Risk analysis ,as used for the assessment of the hazards associated with ships, can be summarized by three questions:1.what can go wrong ?2.what are the effects and consequences?3.how often will it happen?The results of the analysis are used for judgement, about the acceptability of the risk and for decision making.What is Risk Analysis-Drawbacksl The methodology is sophisticated and sometime misleading;l The determination the acceptability of the risk often involves subjectiveness;l the safety cost is always concerned.The FSA(Formal Safety Assessment) Methodologyl The FSA Methodology was developed by the UK.l International Guidelines encompassing all key elements of the FSA methodology were generated by an international FSA working group convened at MSC66 and MSC67.The FSA(Formal Safety Assessment) Methodologyl The FSA approach comprises five steps:1.identification of hazards;2.assessment of risks associated with those hazards;3.consideration of alternative ways of managing those risks;4.cost benefit assessment of alternative risk management options;5.decisions on which option to select.Risk MatrixA Methodology安全管理辅助技术 (safety management techniques)l 调查表l 分层法l 水平对比法l 头脑风暴法l 因果图法l 流程图法l 树图l 控制图l 直方图l 排列图常用预测技术l 程序：确定目标；收集数据；安全预测；分析评价；提交报告。l 常用