2025年亚洲及太平洋经济社会概览

Highlights

〈〈〈〈Foreword

Withjustfiveyearstogo,theSustainableDevelopmentGoalsarefacingsignificantheadwinds–fromthedevastatingeffectsofconflictsandclimatechange,togeopoliticaldivisionsandrisingmistrust.

Thisyear’seditionoftheEconomicandSocialSurveyofAsiaandthePacifichighlightsonesuchareawhereleadershipisessentialtoaccelerateprogress:climateaction.

CountriesacrossAsiaandthePacificareparticularlyvulnerabletothedevastatingeffectsofawarmingplanet–includingclimateshocksanddisasterslikefloodsanddroughts,aswellasrisingsealevels,meltingglaciersandwarmeroceantemperatures.

ThisSurveyremindsusthatthehealthofourclimateandthehealthofoureconomiesgohandinhand.

Itcallsongovernments,businessesandpolicymakersacrossAsiaandthePacifictojoinforcestodevelopproactivepoliciesthatintegrateclimaterisksintofiscalandmonetarypolicies.

Italsourgesgovernmentstoaccelerateinvestmentsintoclimate-resilientinfrastructurethatcansafeguardhard-wondevelopmentgainsandprotectkeysectors–likeagriculture–fromworseningclimateimpacts.

Andithighlightstheneedforenergysolutionsgroundedinrenewablestocurbgreenhousegasemissionswhilecreatingnewjobsandsourcesofeconomicprosperity.

AsthisSurveymakesclear,AsiaandthePacificisuniquelypositionedtobenefitfromthegreenrevolution,and–withtherightmacroeconomicpolicies

–canbuildresilience,loweritsexposuretotheimpactsofclimatechangeandspurdevelopment.

Nowisthetimetoseizetheseopportunitiesand,guidedbythisSurvey,buildafutureofstability,sustainabilityandsharedprosperityforallacrossAsiaandthePacificandaroundtheworld.

AntónioGuterres

Secretary-GeneraloftheUnitedNations

〈〈〈〈Preface

TheAsia-Pacificregionisseekingtobalanceitsroleastheenginedrivingglobaleconomicgrowthwithemergingpolicyanddeepeningclimatechangechallenges.The2025editionoftheEconomicandSocialSurveyofAsiaandthePacifichighlightshowdomesticandexternalpressures,includingrelativelyhighinterestrates,persistingsovereigndebtrisksandrisingtradetensionsandfragmentation,aretestingtheeconomicresilienceoftheregion.

Weexpectthatmosteconomiesintheregionwillcontinuetodemonstrateresilienceinthecomingyears.Nevertheless,decelerationinproductivitygrowthandincomeconvergence,difficultyindiversifyingintoeconomicsectorswithhighervalueadditionandpolicydilemmastobalanceeconomicgrowthwithgreeneconomictransformationpresentcomplexchallenges.Increasingglobaleconomicuncertaintyanddeepeningclimaterisksarealsonotmakingiteasyformacroeconomicpolicymakers.Navigatingthisevolvinglandscaperequiresnotonlysoundnationalpoliciesbutalsocoordinatedregionaleffortstosafeguardlong-termeconomicprospectsandtackleclimatechange.

Tosecurelong-termeconomicprosperity,theSurveyunderscorestheneedtoprioritizeproductivityenhancementandsectoralupgradingwithactiveinvolvementofGovernments,capitalizeonregionalgreenvaluechainsasanewengineofeconomicgrowthandpromoteinclusiveregionalism.

Atthesametime,understandingthecomplexandconstantlyevolvingmacroeconomicandclimatenexusisessentialforcopingwithclimaterisksandeffectivelysupportingnationalclimateactionandsustainabledevelopment.AkeycontributionoftheSurveyisitscomprehensiveevaluationofthemacroeconomic-climateinterplay.Itprovidesacomprehensiveassessmentofhowclimatechangeandclimateactionaffectdifferentaspectsofsocietiesandeconomies.Thesesocioeconomicimpactsarepartlyreflectedinmacroeconomicindicators,andthereremainmanyunknownsinthisemergingresearchandpolicyarea.

TheSurveyalsoconductsareadinessassessmentofbothclimateexposureandmacroeconomiccopingcapacity,offeringaholisticpictureofeconomicvulnerability.ItshowsthatseveralAsianandPacificeconomiesarenotfullyreadytocopewithclimateshocksandthemuch-neededenergytransition.Robustnationaleconomicstrategies,suchasadequatefiscalspace,effective

publicfinancialmanagementandpreparednessofthefinancialsectorcanhelpstrengthentheadaptivecapacityofpolicymakers.

Regionalcooperationisequallycriticaltoaddresssharedmacroeconomicandclimatechallenges.Toachievesectoralupgrading,forinstance,economiescanleveragetheirunparallelledproductionnetworksandleadinggreentechnologiestostrengthengreenvaluechains.Torealizeclimate-alignedmacroeconomicpolicies,countriesintheregionandmultilateraldevelopmentpartnerscanshareknowledgeandexperiencestonavigatethisnewendeavour.

ESCAPwillcontinuetoplayacentralroleinprovidinganalyticalassessmentsandpolicyideas,fosteringdialoguesandenhancingcooperationacrossborderstosupportpolicymakerstoproactivelymitigatevulnerabilitiesandunlockpathwaysforinclusive,sustainableandclimate-resilientdevelopment.

AstheworldstrivestorealizethePactfortheFuture,itistimetoactcollaborativelytoregaintrustininclusivemultilateralism.Onlymultilateralsolutionscanaddresstheworryinglyuncertainanddividedglobalsustainabledevelopmentlandscape.

ArmidaSalsiahAlisjahbana

Under-Secretary-GeneraloftheUnitedNationsandExecutiveSecretaryofESCAP

〈〈〈〈Keytakeaways

TheAsia-Pacificeconomywaslargelystablein2024andcontinuedtodrivetheglobaleconomy.However,theoverallsteadypicturemasksunevenperformanceacrosseconomiesandchallengesfacedbypeople.EconomicgrowthintheleastdevelopedcountrieshasbeenbelowthetargetsetoutinSustainableDevelopmentGoal8.Manycountriesfacedhigheryouthunemploymentandweakerpost-pandemicjobrecoveryinlower-skilledsectors.Wagelevelsalsofailedtokeeppacewithinflationinseveraleconomies.

Althoughnear-termeconomicprospectsareexpectedtoremainstable,risingglobaltradetensionscouldraiseinflationandkeepinterestrateshigherforlonger.Tocopewithelevatedeconomicuncertainty,prudentfiscalandmonetarypolicymanagementandstrengthenedregionaleconomiccooperationareessential.

Overthelongerhorizon,Asia-Pacificdevelopingeconomiesfacedeeperstructuralchallenges.Bothlabourproductivitygrowthandincomeconvergencewithdevelopedeconomieshaveslowedsince2008.Developmentapproachesthatfocusedonexportsandcapitalinvestmentsdrovetheregion’seconomicsuccessinthepastbutmaynotprovesufficienttosustainlong-termeconomicdevelopment.Governmentswillneedtoproactivelyupgradeeconomicsectorsandcapitalizeongreenvaluechainstoescapethe“middle-incometrap”.

Atthesametime,climatechangeisincreasinglyhamperingtheabilityofpolicymakerstomeetmacroeconomicobjectives,suchassteadyeconomicgrowthandsustainedpricestability.Theimplicationsforeconomiesandmacroeconomicoutcomesarelikelytoincreaseastheworldfacesmoreclimatedisastersandboostsclimateaction.Yet,themyriadmacroeconomic-climateimpactchannelsandfeedbackloopsremainpoorlyunderstood,especiallyinthecontextoftheAsia-Pacificregion.

AnewESCAPanalysisshowsthatmanycountriesarelessreadytocopewiththemacroeconomicimplicationsofclimatechangeandtransitiontolow-carbondevelopment.Amongothervulnerabilities,availablefiscalresourcesaresmallrelativetolikelyeconomiclossesfromclimateshockswhilefinancialsectorstabilitycanbecompromisedifbankloandefaultssurge.

Reducingrelianceonfossil-fuelindustriesandpromotingclimate-resilientagricultureandinfrastructurecanhelpcutclimateexposure.Toboostcopingability,adoptingclimate-alignedfiscal,monetaryandfinancialpoliciesisawayforward.Giventheevolvingmacroeconomic-climatenexus,policymakersneedtoconsiderinnovativedecision-makingstrategies,suchasstrategicforesightanalysis.

pursuin

whiledealingwith

InthenearfutureOveralongertimehorizon

1.EconomiesinAsiaandthePacific

mustsustaineconomicgrowthwhilemanagingthegreen

economictransformation,by

1.EconomiesofAsiaandthe

Pacificareexpectedtogrowsteadilyin2025and2026…

✓Liftinglabourproductivity

✓Upgradingeconomicsectors

✓Capitalizingongreenvaluechains

2.…butrisksarerising,especiallytradetensionsandeconomic

uncertainty

,

2.Macroeconomicpolicymakers

3.Manyeconomiesandpeople

mayfareworsethanothers

willneedtounderstandandcopewiththeimplicationsofclimatechange,by

✓Below-targeteconomicgrowthintheleast

developedcountries

✓Managing

climate-induced

economicrisks

✓Embeddingclimatefactorsinto

macroeconomicpolicystrategies

✓Slowerpost-pandemicjobrecoveryfor

lower-skilledworkers

✓Risingyouth

A

unemployment

✓Supporting

climateaction

✓Persistentpovertyandincomeinequality

CHAPTER1

Macroeconomicprospects,challengesandpolicies

1.TheeconomiesofAsiaandthePacificwerelargelyresilientin2024,althoughinflationremainedrelativelyhigh.

Asia-Pacificdevelopingeconomiesgrewby4.8percentonaveragein2024,downslightlyfrom5.2percentin2023.Robustexportsdrovetheexpansion.Averageinflationeasedto5.0percentamidlowerglobalcommoditypricesandatightmonetarypolicystanceearlier.Nevertheless,consumerspendingwassubduedaspurchasingpowerremainsweak.

2.Despitetheoverallsteadyeconomicgrowth,someeconomiesandpeoplefaredworsethanothers.

Economiesoftheleastdevelopedcountriesexpandedbyjust3.7percentin2024,farbelowthe7.0percenttargetsetoutinSustainableDevelopmentGoal8.Youthunemploymentsurgedinseveraleconomies,whilepost-pandemicjobrecoveryhasbeenweakerinlower-skilledsectors.Wagelevelsalsofailedtokeeppacewithinflationinmanyeconomies.

3.Near-termeconomicprospectsarelargelystableamidrisingrisksanduncertainties.

Theregion’seconomicgrowthisprojectedtodipslightlyto4.4-4.5percentin2025-2026duetoweakerexternaldemand,fragilemarketsentimentsandlessroomforfiscalsupport.Majorrisksarerisingglobaltradetensionsandescalatinggeopoliticalconflicts,whichcouldpushupinflationandmakeinterestrateshigherforlonger.

4.Prudentandadaptivemacroeconomicpoliciesareneededtonavigateuncertainties.

Fiscalandmonetarypolicymanagementshouldremainprudentinanticipationofeconomicdisruptionsemanatingfromrisingtradetensions.Governmentsshouldconsidersupportingindustriesaffectedbytradeprotectionismtosafeguarddomesticvaluechains.Strongerpublicrevenuemobilizationandstrengthenedregionaleconomiccooperationwouldhelpbufferexternalshocks.

Asia-Pacificregionstayedeconomicallyresilientin2024...

AverageGDPgrowth:4.8%,

0.4%comparedwith2023Averageinflation:5.0%,

0.4%comparedwith2023

StrongRobust

exportsinvestment

flation&interestrat

Highine

opoliticaltensions

sumptiondemandOng

s

e

og

i&

e

nd

a

gtr

Growthin

high-tech

n

o

c

c

i

t

s

e

eom

sectors

f

t

e

n

dd

So

✓NorthandCentralAsia:

Resilienteconomiessupportedbygrowing

domesticdemandandintra-subregionaltrade

✓EastandNorth-EastAsia:

Weakprivatedemand,butrobustpublicinvestment&growthinhigh-techsectors

✓ThePacific:

Economicrecoverycontinued,butdebtrisksremainpersistent

✓SouthandSouth-WestAsia:Growthmoderatedfromanabove-trendhigh,but

inflationalsoeased

✓South-EastAsia:

Strongperformancedrivenbyaglobalelectronicsboom

...withvariationsacrosssubregions

Outlookfor2025-2026isbroadlystableamidrisingrisks

Majorrisks

Baseline:stableGDP

•Resurgingglobalinflation&higher-for-longerglobalinterestrates

•Risingglobaltrade

tensions&escalatinggeopoliticalconflicts

Ontheupside

•Policystimulus&better-than-expectedgrowthofChineseeconomy

2025

2026

Growth

4.5%

4.4%

Inflation

4.4%

3.7%

growth&lowerinflation

Policyconsiderations

Prudentmonetary&fiscal

managementinanticipation

ofemergingrisks

Strengthenedeconomic

cooperationasashieldagainst

externaluncertainties

Timelyandflexible

supportfordomestic

industries&valuechains

CHAPTER2

ThefutureofeconomicgrowthinAsiaandthePacific

1.EconomicdevelopmentinAsiaandthePacificisshowingsignsoffatigueafterdecadesofexceptionalsuccess.

Bothlabourproductivitygrowthandincomeconvergencewithdevelopedeconomieshaveslowedsince2008.Theoldgrowthenginesofrural-urbanstructuraltransformation,export-orienteddevelopmentmodelsandlargedomesticinfrastructureinvestmentsareincreasinglybeingtested.

2.Developingeconomiesarefindingitdifficulttotapintohighvalue-addedsectors,asituationwhichdoesnotbodewellforlong-termeconomicgrowth.

ManyAsia-Pacificdevelopingcountriesremainstuckinlow-productivitysegmentsofglobalvaluechains.Upgradingeconomicsectorsislookingevenmoredifficultduetorisingtradeprotectionismandintensifyingglobaltechnologicalcompetition.

3.Policymakersalsofaceadifficultbalancebetweensustainingeconomicgrowthandachievinggreeneconomictransformation.

Renewableformsofenergyhaveyettobecomeuniversallycost-competitive.Also,mostdevelopingcountriesstillrelyonimportedtechnologies,capitalgoodsandservicesforgreendevelopment.Countrieswithtightfiscalspacemayhavetostrikeabalancebetweenmaintainingessentialpublicservicesandsubsidizingclimatetransitiontoavoidhigherinflation.

4.Asia-Pacificeconomiesneedtoproactivelysupportsectoralupgrading,capitalizeongreenvaluechainsandembraceinclusiveregionalismtoescapethe“middle-incometrap”.

Sectoralupgradingdrivesincomeandproductivitygrowth.ProactiveStatesupportcanbeinstrumentaltoexpeditethisprocess.Astheworld’sproductionhub,theregioniswellpositionedtocapturethegreeneconomygivenitsestablishedgreenvaluechains.Inclusiveandstrengthenedregionaleconomiccooperationisneededtoensurethatthesegainsaresharedacrosscountries.

ProductivitygrowthandincomeconvergencehassloweddowninAsiaandthePacific

Declineinlabourproductivitygrowth,2000-2007vs.2011-2019

25leftfurtherbehind19catchingup

3.9%→3.4%

NorthandCentralAsia

4.5%→3.3%

South-EastAsia

Percapitaincomein44Asia-Pacificdevelopingcountries,vs.thatoftheUnitedStates

5.0%→3.5%

SouthandSouth-WestAsia

9.8%→6.9%

China

Valueadded

Mostdevelopingcountriesareatthelowvalueadded“production”segmentofthevaluechain

Headquarters

Logistics

Production

Valuechainfunctions

Pre-productionProductionPost-production

Support

R&D

Theyarealso

confrontedwitha

difficultbalancingact

transformation

Conventional

economic

growth

Green

economic

Toescapethe“middle-incometrap”,Asia-Pacificcountriesneedto:

123

Strengthentheroleofthe

Stateinchampioning

sectoraleconomicupgrading

Embraceinclusiveregionaleconomiccooperationforsharedprosperity

Capitalizeongreenvaluechainsasasourceof

futureeconomicgrowth

CHAPTER3

Macroeconomicandclimatechangenexus

inAsiaandthePacific:understandingthecontext

1.Astheworldfacesmoreclimatedisastersandboostsclimateaction,therewillbesignificantimplicationsforsocieties,economiesandmacroeconomicoutcomes.

Suddendisastersinducedbyclimatechangeandslow-onsetclimateeventsarealreadyhavingnotableimpactsontheagriculture,energyandtourismsectors,aswellaspeople’seducation,healthconditionsandmigration.Thesedevelopments,coupledwithclimatepolicies,influencekeymacroeconomicoutcomes,suchaseconomicgrowth,inflation,employment,publicdebtandfinancialstability.

2.Whilenottheirtraditionaldomain,macroeconomicpolicymakersshouldbeconcernedwithclimatechange.

Climatechangehasincreasinglyreducedtheabilityofmacroeconomicpolicymakerstomeetofficialgoalsandtargets.Macroeconomicpolicyoutcomes,suchasrapideconomicgrowthandhighinterestrates,alsoaffectclimateconditions.Fiscalandmonetarypolicymakersneedtounderstandandmanagetheimpactoftheirpolicyactionsonenvironmentalsustainability.

3.MacroeconomicauthoritiesinAsiaandthePacifichaveintroducedmanypoliciesandpracticestomanageclimate-inducedeconomicrisksandsupportclimateaction.

Amongothers,fiscalauthoritiesinmanyeconomieshaveassessedtheimpactsofclimaterisksonfiscalspending,adoptedflexiblefiscalrulesamiddisastershocks,introducedcarbonpricingschemesandimplementedclimatebudgeting.Monetaryauthoritieshavealsorequiredfinancialinstitutionstodiscloseclimaterisks,developednationalsustainablefinancetaxonomiesandmadeeffortstomakesustainablefinancemoreaffordable.

4.Policymakersneedtoconsiderseveralfactorsinrealizingclimate-alignedfiscal,monetaryandfinancialpolicies.

Manynewelementsarerequired,suchaschangesinlawsandtheuseofinnovativefinancingandpolicytools.Policymakersshouldalsoensurecoherentpolicypackagesandbemindfulofunintendedadversesocialimpactsofclimate-alignedmacroeconomicpolicies.

1.

s

e

i

t

e

o

n

o

c

E

Education

Agriculture

Health

conditions

MigrationConflict

Energy

Tourism

Infrastructure

Climateshocksandclimateactionhave

i

c

o

S

s

e

i

m

myriad,less-understoodimplicationson

c

M

自

m

i

a

c

e

s

o

o

r

oeconutcom

Inresponse,fiscaland

monetaryauthoritieshave

introducedsomepolicies,butmore

changesareneededto

Fosterclimateaction

-whichwillaffect

decisionsbybusinessesandconsumers

-whichwillrequire

adjustmentsinexistingpolicyframeworks

Analyseandcope

withclimate-inducedeconomicrisks

2.

Outputgrowth

Employment

Inflation

Financial

stabilityPublicdebt

3.Mainconsiderationsforrealizingclimate-alignedmacroeconomicpolicies

Ensurecoherenceacrosspolicymakingentities

Buy-infrombroaderstakeholders

Mitigateunintended

adverseimpactsonpeople

Makechangeshappen

Newpolicytoolsandapproaches

Innovativefinancing

Amendinglaws

CHAPTER4

Understandingandactingonthemacroeconomicimplicationsofclimatechange

1.Themacroeconomicimpactsofclimatechangeandclimateactionarenotableandwide-ranging.

Damagetoagriculturalproductionraisesinflation,unemploymentandimportneeds.Fiscalpositionsbecometighteramidlargereconstructionefforts,whilerisingloandefaultsweakenfinancialstability.Climate-inducedlowerlabourproductivityandagriculturalyieldsalsoconstraineconomicgrowthpotential.Meanwhile,energytransitioncangeneratefiscalrevenuesbutmaypushupinflationanderodeexportcompetitiveness.

2.Manymacroeconomic-climateimpactchannelsandfeedbackloopsremainpoorlyunderstood.

Thechannelsandmagnitudeofimpactsvaryacrosseconomicsectors,geographicallocations,levelsofsocioeconomicdevelopmentandpolicyenvironment.Asmacroeconomicindicatorsdonotadequatelycapturelong-termclimateorenvironmentalissues,thiscomplicatesmacroeconomicpolicymakingamidclimatechange.

3.Climateaction,suchasadaptationinvestmentsandcarbontaxation,offerenvironmentalbenefitsbutincureconomiccostsandhavespillovereffects.

Policyselectionandprioritizationprocessesshouldconsiderthesefactors.Policymakersalsoneedtobalanceambitiousenvironmentalgoalswithsocioeconomicobjectivesandbemindfulofavailablehumanandfinancialresources.Thesearchforeffectivedecarbonizationpathsshouldconsiderboththeirintensityandtimeframes.

4.Givenvariousunknownsandconsiderableuncertainties,policymakerswouldbenefitfrominnovativedecision-makingstrategies.

Astrategicforesightanalysiscanhelpexploredifferentfuturescenariosandprovidepre-emptiveinsights.Abottom-upapproach,whichusesavailablesectoralevidencetoinformeconomy-widepolicies,aswellasdecision-makingbasedonprecautionaryprinciplesorno-regretoptionscanalsobeconsidered.

Climatechangeandclimateactionhaveimpactsonsocietiesand

economiesincomplexways,oftenstillnotfullyunderstood.

GDP

Climatepolicies

个

Economistsshouldintensifytheir

searchforthemosteffective

decarbonizationpaths,considering

boththeirintensityandtimeframes.

3

Policymakersmustprioritizethemostimpactfulclimatepolicieswhilebalancing

investmentsbetweenclimateactionandsocioeconomicobjectives.

Adeeperunderstandingisneededregardingthe

complexinterplaybetween

climatechange,climateactionandmacroeconomicindicators.

?

?

?

2

4

Uncertaintyandriskareapartofclimateaction,andpolicymakersmustlearnhowtoembracethembetterinpolicydesignanddecision-makingprocesses.

5

CHAPTER5

AssessingthereadinessofAsia-Pacificcountriesincopingwiththemacroeconomicimplicationsofclimatechange

1.SeveralAsia-Pacificdevelopingeconomiesarelessreadytocopewiththeimplicationsofclimatechangeandtransitiontolow-carbondevelopment.

Thesocioeconomicstructureandgeographicalfactorsinthesecountriesmakethemmoreexposedtothepotentialimpactsofclimatechangeandenergytransition.Theircopingabilityfromthemacroeconomicperspectiveisalsomorelimitedthanotherregionalpeers.

2.Ofthe30Asia-PacificcountriesanalysedbyESCAP,11areconsideredmoreexposedtoclimatechange.

Thesecountriesfacelargerestimatedeconomiclossesfromclimateshocks,havealargeragriculturalsectorthatisexposedtoclimaterisks,relymoreoncarbon-intensivesectorsandareexpectedtofacehigherinflationduetoclimatefactors.Afghanistan,Cambodia,theIslamicRepublicofIran,Kazakhstan,theLaoPeople’sDemocraticRepublic,Mongolia,Myanmar,Nepal,Tajikistan,UzbekistanandVietNamaremoreexposedthantheirregionalpeersinatleasttwoofthesefourindicators.

3.Ofthe11moreexposedeconomies,3havestrongermacroeconomiccopingability.

Beingmoreexposedtoclimateshocksandclimatetransitionmaynotbeagreatconcern