信贷风险管理的分析指导

信贷风险管理的分析指导CREDITCULTURE

信贷文化RiskaversegivenBank’shighgearingandthinmargin倾向低风险，由于银行高负债和低利息差Propergoalsandmeasureswithcontrols适当的目标和措施及控制TheLinetakesprimary(orjoint)responsibilityofthecreditdecisions

前线部门对贷款决定负主要（或共同）责任BurdenofproofontheLine

证明应贷款责任在于前线部门Neverfeelembarrassedtoask“dumb”questions不用担心问“愚笨”的问题2CREDITRISKMANAGEMENT

信贷风险管理Prerequisite:先决条件Seniormanagement’ssupport(positiveintervention?)高层管理的支持（积极干预？）People(technicalcapability,integrityandinter-personalskills)人员（技术能力、人格和人际交往能力）OrganizationandSystem组织及系统

Attribute:特征Independent独立性Nobottom-lineresponsibility没有盈利责任Professional专业性Firmandfair坚定和公正3STRUCTUREANDAPPROVALPROCESS结构和认证程序BoardofDirectors董事会行政总裁（总部）GHQCEOAPHCEO行政总裁（亚太区）AMHGM总经理（香港及中国大陆）Line前线部门信贷总经理GMCreditCCO首席信贷官HDCredit信贷部门主管Concurrence认同Approval审批Approval审批Approval审批CountryRisk/BankRisk国家风险/银行风险MarketRisk/CreditRisk市场风险/信用风险MarketRisk/CreditRisk市场风险/信用风险Credit信用4ALTERNATIVES选择CentralizedvsDecentralized集权/分权IndividualvsCommittee(compositionanddecisionmakingprocess)个人/委员会（债务组成及决策过程）

Factorstoconsider:需要考虑的因素

Individual/CollectiveDecision/Responsibility个人/集体决策/责任Seniormanagement’strust高层管理的信任Qualityofstaff(atcentreandintheline)员工的素质（管理人员和一线职员）Specializationofstaff员工专业化Effectivenessofinternalcontrolsystem内部控制系统的功效Qualityofservice(e.g.turnaroundtime)服务的质量（例如：报废项目时间）Others(fraudpreventionetc.)其他（防范欺诈等）5CreditPolicy,GuidelinesandProceduresManual

信贷政策，指南及程序手册Keybusinessobjectives主要业务目标StructureandResponsibility结构及职责EconomicOutlook经济预期SectoralAnalysis行业分析BusinessStrategyandFocus业务战略和重点RiskAssessmentandCreditAppetite风险评估和信贷偏好LendingGuidelines贷款指南CreditProducts,ProceduresandAdvice信贷产品、程序和建议6CREDITPOLICY信贷政策Marketpositioningandriskappetite市场定位和风险偏好

Return回报

PrivateBank CommercialBank SubprimeLender

私人银行商业银行次级贷款人-Largecorporate大型企业-Middlemarket中端市场-Smallbusiness小型企业-Consumer消费者

Risk风险7MARKETSEGMENTATION–CREDITTOOLS市场细分—信贷工具CorporateBanking-Largecorporate-Judgemental(plusRating,KMV,MRA)公司金融-大型公司-主观判断（加评分，KMV,MRA)

CommercialBanking–Mediumsizedcorporate–Judgemental公司金融-中型企业-主观判断

BusinessBanking–Smallbusiness–Scoring商务理财-小型企业-评分

PersonalFinancialServices–Consumer–Scoring个人金融服务-消费者-评分

8DelinquencyRates,AllBanks,SA(USA)贷款不良率

美国所有银行

0246810121491Q191Q392Q192Q393Q193Q394Q194Q395Q195Q396Q196Q397Q197Q398Q198Q399Q199Q300Q100Q301Q101Q3Residential*住房贷款Commercial*商业房地产贷款C&ILoans工商贷款TotalLoans&Leases贷款和租赁总额%9LoanQualityinHK香港地区贷款质量-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%NPL%不良贷款比例Creditcardcharge-offratio(annualised)年信用卡冲销比例MortgageDelinquencyRate住房贷款不良率RealGDP(yearonyear%change)年实际GDP变化率10SmallBusiness小型企业Morevulnerabletoeconomicdownturn易受经济下滑的影响Informationproblematic(lowfinancialtransparencyandreliability)信息问题（财务信息透明度及可信度不高）Highoperatingrisks(relativelyweakinmanagementskills)高运营风险（较弱的管理能力）CharacteristicsoftheScorecard记分卡的特征Company’sfinancials公司财务状况Company’scredithistoryandbehavior公司信用历史和表现Company’sattributes(age,sector,sizeetc)公司性质（成立时间的长短、所属行业、规模等）Owner’sscores公司所有者的评分11英国小型公司主要业务的设立与终止设立千/每季度终止12Consumer消费贷款CriteriaBasedLending根据准则所进行的信贷Morecommonlyforsecuredproducts,e.g.mortgage,carloans,HPandloanssecuredbyliquidassets多用于担保产品，例如：住房贷款、汽车贷款、租赁及用流动资产担保的贷款Securitycoverage抵押品/贷款比例Incomecoverage收入/还款比例

13MortgageLoanQuality(HK)香港地区住房贷款质量1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%Dec-98Feb-99Apr-99Jun-99Aug-99Oct-99Dec-99Feb-00Apr-00Jun-00Aug-00Oct-00Dec-00Feb-01Apr-01Jun-01Aug-01Oct-01Dec-01Feb-02050100150200250300MortgageDelinquencyRate住房贷款不良率Unemploymentrate失业率ResidentialPriceIndex(1989=100)(RHS)住房价格指数（以1989年为100）14Scoring评分Rankordering分级ApplicationandBehavioralScores申请信贷和行为评分GenericandCustomizedScores通用评分和专用评分Creditcard,personalloans,etc信用卡，个人贷款等15CREDITRISKMONITORING

信贷风险监督ManagementInformation管理信息 (CPAN,IBIS,REMIND,SCOPE,etc)Gradeclassification/migration评级分类/变动情况Scoredistribution/flowrate分值分布/流动率16PRICINGSTRATEGY

定价战略1.Interestmargin:hurdlerates,e.g.bonds.利率边际：障碍率，例如：债券2.RORA:returnontheoverallrelationship总体关系的回报3.EP:costofcapital经济利润：资本成本

Factorstoconsider:考虑因素PD(Borrower’sgrade)违约机率LGD损失比率Term年期Costofcapital资本成本Competition竞争Businesspotential发展潜力17DEBTRECOVERY(1)

贷款收回（1）Objective

目标RiskvsRelationship

风险或关系Strategy

战略RehabilitationORExit

贷款康复或退出18DEBTRECOVERY(2)

贷款收回(2)Workout-Factorsforsuccess

债务重组-成功的因素-

legalsystem(SchemeofArrangement,IndividualVoluntaryArrangement,BankruptcyLaw)-法律体系(债务安排计划、个人自愿安排、破产法）-

professionalsupport(lawyer,accountant,financialadvisor,assetsearch