成本与管理会计（第15版） 课件 GE-hca15ch21

CHAPTER21CapitalBudgetingandCostAnalysisChapter21learningobjectivesUnderstandthefivestagesofcapitalbudgetingforaprojectUseandevaluatethetwomaindiscountedcashflow(DCF)methods:thenetpresentvalue(NPV)methodandtheinternalrate-of-return(IRR)methodUseandevaluatethepaybackanddiscountedpaybackmethodUseandevaluatetheaccrualaccountingrate-of-return(AARR)method21-2Chapter21learningobjectives,concludedIdentifyrelevantcashinflowsandoutflowsforcapitalbudgetingdecisionsUnderstandissuesinvolvedinimplementingcapitalbudgetingdecisionsandevaluatingmanagerialperformanceExplainhowmanagerscanusecapitalbudgetingtoachievetheirfirms’strategicgoals21-3Capitalbudgeting Workingcloselywithaccountants,topexecutiveshavetofigureouthowandwhentobestallocatethefirm’sfinancialresourcesamongalternativeopportunitiestocreatefuturevalueforthecompany.Becauseitishardtoknowwhatthefutureholdsandhowmuchprojectswillultimatelycost,thiscanbeachallengingtask,butitisonethatmanagersmustconstantlyconfront.Thischapterexplainsthedifferentmethodsmanagersusetogetthe“biggestbang”forthefirm’s“buck”intermsoftheprojectstheyundertake.21-4Capitalbudgeting,cont’d Capitalbudgetingistheprocessofmakinglong-runplanningdecisionsforinvestmentsinprojects.Inmuchofaccounting,incomeiscalculatedonaperiod-by-periodbasis.Inchoosinginvestments,managersmakeaselectionfromamongmultipleprojectseachofwhichmayspanseveraldifferentperiods.21-5Twodifferent,intersectingDimensionsofCostAnalysisHorizontallyacrossistheprojectdimension,andVerticallyupwardistheaccounting-perioddimension.Tomakecapitalbudgetingdecisions,managersmustanalyzeeachprojectbyconsideringallthelife-spancashflowsfromitsinitialinvestmentthroughitstermination.21-6ProjectandTimeDimensionsofCapitalBudgetingIllustrated21-7FiveStagesinCapitalBudgetingIdentifyprojects—identifypotentialcapitalinvestmentsthatagreewiththeorganization’sstrategy.Obtaininformation—gatherinformationfromallpartsofthevaluechaintoevaluatealternativeprojects.Makepredictions—forecastallpotentialcashflowsattributabletothealternativeprojects.21-8FiveStagesinCapitalBudgeting,concludedMakeDecisionsbyChoosingAmongAlternatives-Determinewhichinvestmentyieldsthegreatestbenefitandleastcosttotheorganization.Implementthedecision,evaluateperformanceandlearn(generallyseparatedintotwophases):Obtainfundingandmaketheinvestmentselectedinstage4.Trackrealizedcashflows,compareagainstestimatednumbersandreviseplansifnecessary.21-9CapitalbudgetingandworkingcapitalNewprojectsoftenrequireadditionalinvestmentsincurrentassets,suchasinventoriesandreceivables.Workingcapitalinthischapterreferstothedifferencebetweencurrentassetsandcurrentliabilities.Anyadditionalinvestmentrequiredforaprojectwillbeincludedinthatproject’scashflows.21-10FourCapitalBudgetingMethodsNetpresentvalue(NPV)Internalrateofreturn(IRR)PaybackperiodAccrualaccountingrateofreturn(AARR)

Methods1and2(NPVandIRR)arediscountedcashflow(DCF)methods.21-11DiscountedCashFlowsDiscountedcashflow(DCF)methodsmeasureallexpectedfuturecashinflowsandoutflowsofaprojectdiscountedbacktothepresentpointintime.ThekeyfeatureofDCFmethodsisthetimevalueofmoneywhichmeansthatadollarreceivedtodayisworthmorethanadollarreceivedatanyfuturetime.Thereasonisthat$1receivedtodaycouldbeinvestedat,say,10%peryearsothatitgrowsto$1.10attheendofoneyear.21-12DiscountedCashFlows,cont’dThetimevalueofmoneyistheopportunitycostfromnothavingthemoneytoday.DCFmethodsusetherequiredrateofreturn(RRR),whichistheminimumacceptableannualrateofreturnonaninvestment.RRRisinternallyset,usuallybyuppermanagement,andtypicallyrepresentsthereturnthatanorganizationcouldexpecttoreceiveelsewhereforaninvestmentofcomparablerisk.RRRisalsocalledthediscountrate,hurdlerate,costofcapital,oropportunitycostofcapital.21-13NetPresentValue(NPV)MethodTheNPVmethodcalculatestheexpectedmonetarygainorlossfromaprojectbydiscountingallexpectedfuturecashinflowsandoutflowsbacktothepresentpointintime,usingtheRRR.Basedonfinancialfactorsalone,onlyprojectswithazeroorpositiveNPVareacceptable.We’llusethreestepsfortheNPVmethod.21-14Three-StepNPVMethodDrawasketchoftherelevantcashinflowsandoutflows.(seerightsideofnextslide)DiscounttheCashFlowsusingtheCorrectCompoundInterestTablefromAppendixAandSumThem.MaketheProjectDecisionontheBasisoftheCalculatedNPV(zeroorpositiveshouldbeacceptedbecausetheexpectedrateofreturnequals(zero)orexceedstherequiredrateofreturn.)21-15NPVMethod,example21-16InternalRateofReturn(IRR)MethodTheIRRMethodcalculatesthediscountrateatwhichaninvestment’spresentvalueofallexpectedcashinflowsequalsthepresentvalueofitsexpectedcashoutflows.WearelookingherefortherateofreturnthatmakesNPV=0.AprojectisacceptedonlyiftheIRRequalsorexceedstheRRR.21-17IRRMethod,cont’dManagersoranalystssolvingcapitalbudgetingproblemstypicallyuseacalculatororcomputerprogramtoprovidetheinternalrateofreturn,butamoremanualtrialanderrorapproachcanalsoprovidetheanswer.Trialanderrorapproach:Useadiscountrateandcalculatetheproject’sNPV.Goal:findthediscountrateforwhichNPV=0IfthecalculatedNPVisgreaterthanzero,useahigherdiscountrate.IfthecalculatedNPVislessthanzero,usealowerdiscountrate.ContinueuntilNPV=0.21-18IRRMethod,example21-19ComparingtheNPVandIRRMethodsNPVisgenerallypreferredbecauseitsuseleadstoshareholdervaluemaximization.NPVisexpressedindollars,notinpercentages;IRRprojectscannotbeaddedoraveragedtorepresenttheIRRofacombinationofprojects.TheNPVvaluecanalwaysbecomputedforaproject.NPVmethodcanbeusedwhentheRRRvariesoverthelifeoftheproject.21-20ComparingtheNPVandIRRMethods,concludedIRRismoreprone(thanNPV)toindicateerroneousdecisions.IRRimplicitlyassumesthatprojectcashflowscanbereinvestedattheproject’srateofreturn.NPVaccuratelyassumesthatprojectcashflowscanonlybereinvestedatthecompany’srequiredrateofreturn.Still,theIRRmethodiswidelyused.21-21PaybackMethod,overviewThePaybackmethodmeasuresthetimeitwilltaketorecoup,intheformofexpectedfuturecashflows,thenetinitialinvestmentinaproject.LiketheNPVandIRRmethods,thepaybackmethoddoesnotdistinguishamongthesourcesofcashflows.Shorterpaybackperiodarepreferable.Organizationschooseanacceptableprojectpaybackperiod.Generally,thegreatertherisk,theshorterthepaybackperiodshouldbe.Thepaybackmethodiseasytounderstand.Thetwoweaknessesofthepaybackmethodare:Failstorecognizethetimevalueofmoney.Doesn’tconsiderthecashflowbeyondthepaybackpoint.21-22PaybackMethod,calculation21-23Withuniformcashflows:Withnon-uniformcashflows:addcashflowsperiod-by-perioduntiltheinitialinvestmentisrecovered;countthenumberofperiodsincludedforpaybackperiod.Itisrelativelysimpletoadjustthepaybackmethodtoincorporatethetimevalueofmoneybydiscountingtheexpectedfuturecashflowsbeforeperformingthecalculations.AccrualAccountingRateofReturnMethod(AARR)TheAARRmethoddividestheaverageannual[accrualaccounting]incomeofaprojectbyameasureoftheinvestmentinit.That“measureoftheinvestment”intheprojectcanvarycompanybycompany.Alsocalledtheaccountingrateofreturn.TheAARRmethodissimilartotheIRRmethodinthatbothcalculatearate-of-returnpercentage;however,theIRRmethodisgenerallyregardedasbetterthantheAARR.21-24AARRMethodFormula21-25RememberthatthevalueusedforthedenominatorcanvarysobesureyouunderstandhowtheAARRisdefinedineachindividualsituation.AARRMethod,advantagesanddisadvantagesFirmsvaryinhowtheycalculateAARR.Easytounderstand,andusesnumbersreportedinfinancialstatements.Doesnottrackcashflows.Ignorestimevalueofmoney.Whendifferentmethodsleadtodifferentrankingsofprojects,moreweightshouldbegiventotheNPVmethodbecausetheassumptionsmadebytheNPVmethodaremostconsistentwithmakingdecisionsthatmaximizeacompany’svalue.21-26RelevantCashFlowsin

DCFAnalysisOneofthebiggestchallengesincapitalbudgeting,particularlyDCFanalysis,isdeterminingwhichcashflowsarerelevantinmakinganinvestmentselection.Relevantcashflowsarethedifferencesinexpectedfuturecashflowsasaresultofmakingtheinvestment.Acapitalinvestmentprojecttypicallyhasthreecategoriesofcashflows:Netinitialinvestment.After-taxcashflowfromoperations.After-taxcashflowfromterminaldisposalofanassetandrecoveryofworkingcapital.21-27Relevantafter-taxflowsWe’lllookateachcategory,butlet’sbesureweunderstandtheeffectthattaxescanhaveonthecashflows.21-28NetInitialInvestmentThreecomponentsofnet-initialinvestmentcashflows:Initialmachineinvestment.Initialworkingcapitalinvestment.After-taxcashflowfromcurrentdisposalofoldmachine.21-29CashFlowfromOperationsTwocomponentsofcashflowfromoperations:Annualafter-taxcashflowfromoperations(excludingthedepreciationeffect).Incometaxcashsavingsfromannualdepreciationdeductions.Foreconomic-policyreasons,taxlawsspecifywhichdepreciationmethodsandwhichdepreciablelivesarepermitted.Whenthereisalegalchoice,takethedepreciationsoonerratherthanlaterbecausethiswillincreaseaproject’sNPV.21-30CashflowfromTerminalDisposalofInvestmentTwocomponentsofTerminalDisposalofInvestment:After-taxcashflowfromterminaldisposalofasset(investment).After-taxcashflowfromrecoveryofworkingcapital(liquidatingreceivablesandinventorythatwasneededtosupporttheproject).21-31ProjectmanagementandperformanceevaluationWehavelookedatwaystoidentifyrelevantcashflowsandtechniquestoanalyzethem.Ourfinalstageofcapitalbudgeting(stage5)istheimplementationandcontroloftheproject,andtheevaluationofperformance.Implementationandcontrol:Managementoftheinvestmentactivityitself.Managementcontroloftheprojectasawhole.Apost-investmentauditmaybedonetoprovidemanagementwithfeedbackabouttheperformanceofaprojectsothatmanagementcancompareactualresultstothecostsandbenefitsexpectedatthetimetheprojectwasselected.21-32EvaluatingManagersand

Goal-CongruenceIssuesApost-investmentauditmaypreventmanagersfromoverstatingtheexpectedcashinflowsfromprojectsandacceptingprojectstheyshouldreject.Companiesshouldperformpost-investmentauditswiththoughtandcareandonlyaftertheprojectoutcomesarefullyknown.Thereisaninconsistencybetweenusingthe