2024年Q4电动汽车销售回顾-2025-02-新能源

ElectricVehicleSales

ReviewQ42024

ForesighttodrivetheindustryJanuary2025

ThispublicationhasbeendevelopedincollaborationbetweenStrategy&,

PwC’sglobalstrategyconsultingbusiness,alongsidePwCAutofacts®’automotiveindustryandfunctionexperts.Together,wetransform

organizationsbydevelopingactionablestrategiesthatdeliverresults.

AtPwC,ourpurposeistobuildtrustinsocietyandsolveimportant

problems.We’reanetworkoffirmsin151countrieswithalmost364,000peoplewhoarecommittedtodeliveringqualityinassurance,advisory

andtaxservices.Findoutmoreandtelluswhatmatterstoyoubyvisitingusat.

PwCreferstothePwCnetworkand/oroneormoreofitsmemberfirms,eachofwhichisaseparatelegalentity.

Pleasesee/structureforfurtherdetails.

Executivesummary

MorethantenmillionBEVssoldin2024

TotalEVsalesinall

analyzedmarketsincreasedbyalmostaquarteroverthe

courseof2024

GlobalBEVsalescontinuedtoenjoysignificantgrowthinmanymarketsin2024,upby14%incomparisonwiththepreviousyear.TheincreasewaslargelypoweredbythecontinuingstrengthanddominanceoftheChinesemarket,whichgrewby20%overthecourseoftheyear.Chinaaccountedforalmosttwothirds(65%)ofmorethantenmillionBEVssoldacrosstheworld.

ThefourthquartersawparticularlysubstantialgrowthinChina,bothforBEVsandPHEVs.BEVsalesinthecountrysmashedthetwomillionbarrierforthefirsttimeinanyonequarterandalmosthitthe2.5millionmark.PHEVsalesgrewbyaremarkable78%inQ42024vs.Q42023.Chineseconsumersappearedkeentotakeadvantageofthevehicletrade-insubsidyschemebeforeitsscheduledexpirationattheendoftheyear.However,thisschemehasnowbeenextendedinto2025andevenexpanded,withabroaderrangeofoldervehiclesnoweligiblefortradingin.

24%

TotalEVsalesgrowthinallanalyzedmarketsinFY2024vs.FY2023

Q4BEVsalesintheUnitedStatesalsoarguablyprofitedfromaperceptionthatcurrentincentivesmightsoonbewithdrawnorreduced,inthiscasebytherecentlysworn-inPresident.Indeed,December2024brokethenationalmonthlyrecordforthenumberofBEVsales.

However,theend-of-yeareffectonsomeothermarketswasnegative.BEVsalesinthetopfiveEuropeanmarketsfellby5%inthefourthquarterYoY,withOEMslikelytohavesoughttodelayregistrationstoensurethattighterCO2emissionstargetsstartingintheEUinJanuary2025weremet.AsimilardynamicwasevidentintheUnitedKingdominQ42023inadvanceoftheimpendingzero-emissionsmandate,whichhelpstoexplainBEVsalesgrowthof47%YoYinQ42024.Forthesamereason,BEVsalesinotherEuropeanmarketsmaythereforebenefitfromanupturnduringthecourseof2025.

MeetingincreasinglystringentCO2targetsisonenecessityforOEMs.ButasweseeinourAnalystInsights,oneotherpressingobjectiveistoidentifyandbuildtheiroptimalsalesmodelinachangingmarket.

Review

ElectricVehicleSales

Strategy&

Source:PwC

Autofacts®analysis

3

1.Analystinsights

Futureofcarsales

ManyOEMshaverecentlyimplementedstrategicchangesintheirsalesoperations.

Dealershipshavebeenastapleintheautomotiveindustryformorethanonehundredyears.However,theadventofe-commerceandtheemergenceofnewOEMshaveintroducednewretailconceptsthatgobeyondthetraditionaldealermodel.Theseincludedirect-to-consumersales,theagencymodel,andvariousonlinesubscriptionsandmobilityservices.

Since2020,theautomotiveindustryhasfacedmultiplechallenges–suchastheCOVID-19pandemic,aglobalchipshortage,andincreasedcompetitionfromChina.InEurope*,theseissuesledtoadeclineinvehiclesales.In2019,European*salespeakedatnearly16millionunitsbutfellin2020duetolockdownsandmarketuncertainty.From2021to2023,supplywaslimited,mainlyduetosupplychaindisruptions.By2024,supplyproblemshadeased,butdemandhadweakenedduetoeconomicuncertainty,inflation,highervehicleprices,andincreasedvehiclelongevity.

Duetothesefactors,futureEuropean*passengercarsalesarenotexpectedtoreturnto2019levelsandindeedarelikelytoremainmorethantwomillionunitsbelowthatfigure.Thereducedsalesvolumenecessitatesfewercardealerships,whileincreasedcompetitionfromnewmarketentrantsandinnovativemobilityconceptsarealsodisruptingtheautomotiveindustry.

Dealershipdensity:GermanycurrentlyhasanespeciallyhighdensityofdealershipsincomparisonwiththeUKorEuropeasawhole.Thecountryhasexperiencedlessconsolidation,resultinginaloweraveragenumberofvehiclessoldperdealership–just254in2024–comparedto272acrossEuropeand456intheUK.WecanthereforesaythatthedealernetworkinGermanyislessefficientlystructuredtocopewiththelowersalesvolumeinthefuture.

36,170

NumberofdealershipsinGermanyin2023**

DealershipsinGermanyhavesofarremainedviablewithlowervolumeduetostrongfixedoperations,inparticularvehiclemaintenance.TheshareofBEVscontinuestoincrease,whichwillreducethisservicerevenuesourceandthereforerequiresimprovedperformanceandconsolidation.

Innovativesalesstrategies:OEMsarenowexploringnewsalesstrategiestoadapttoevolvingconsumerdemandswhileensuringprofitabilityforbothOEMsanddealers.Thesenewstrategiesaimtoenhancecustomerexperiencesandstreamlineoperationsinresponsetothechangingautomotivelandscape.

Averagenumberofcarssoldperdealership***

456

388

272

254

233

223

GermanyEuropeUK

254

229

400

202220232024

OnesignificantinfluencehasbeenTesla’ssuccesswithitsdirect-to-consumermodel,amajorfactorinpersuadingtheindustrytoreconsiderpastsalesapproaches.AccordingtoStrategy&,approximately30%ofallcostsinthetraditionalautomotiveOEMvaluechainareattributedtomarketing,salesanddistribution.Tesla’sdirect-to-consumermodelmaintainsdirectcontactwithconsumers,allowingittoincreasesalesmarginsandcompensateforthecurrentlylowermarginofBEVsincomparisonwithtraditionalICEmodels.

Theintroductionofanewsalesmodelrequiresconsiderableinvestment,whichcaneasilyreachhundredsofthousandsofeurosforasingledealership.However,oncefullyadopted,thebenefits–suchasincreasedmarginsandenhancedconsumerexperience–canfaroutweightheinitialcosts.

ElectricVehicleSalesReviewStrategy&

*EU27+UK+EFTA;**AccordingtoZDK;***AccordingtoICDP

Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,ACEA4

1.Analystinsights

Typesofdealershipsalesmodels

AlthoughTeslahasfoundsuccesswithitsdirect-to-consumermodel,manyotherOEMsarelikelytofindthatanagencymodelworksbestforthem.

Traditionalcardealershipmodel:Inthismodel,dealershipsactasintermediariesbetweenOEMsandconsumers.DealershipspurchasevehiclesfromOEMs,thensellthemtoconsumers.Whilethismodelcanpotentiallyyieldhigherearningspersale,itcomeswithincreasedfinancialriskandhigheroverheadcostsasitisnecessarytomaintainphysicalshowroomsandinventory.

Theagencymodel:Here,dealersserveasagentsfortheOEMratherthanoperatingasindependentretailers.TheOEMretainsownershipofthevehicleuntilitissoldtotheconsumer,whothenbuysitatafixedpricesetbytheOEM.Thismodelreducesthefinancialriskfordealershipsbyreducinginventoryandpricingresponsibilitiesandallowsforamoreconsistentandtransparentbuyingexperienceforconsumers.

Direct-to-consumermodel:Thismodelremovesthetraditionaldealershipintermediary,enablingOEMstoselldirectlyto

consumers.Bydoingso,theymaintaindirectcontactwithcustomers,createaseamlessonline-to-offlineprocess,boostsalesmargins,andenhancetheoverallbuyingexperiencethroughpriceandinventorytransparency.

Thisdirectcommunicationpromotesconsumerengagement,leadingtomoreopportunitiesforupsellingproductsandservices.Thisstrategyiswhatmarketerscall“conversationalsales”,engagingwiththecustomersontheirtermsandattheirconvenience,ratherthanrelyingonintrusivesalespitches.

Wefeelthattheagencyanddirect-to-consumermodelsgenerallyprovideamoreseamlessandenjoyablebuyingexperienceforconsumers,notleastbecausemostconsumersprefertoavoidhagglingoverprices.Pricenegotiationshaveaparticularlynegativeimpactonpremiumbrands,damagingtheirluxuryimage.

Delayedorabandonedplansfortheagencymodel:TheprimaryreasonwhysomeOEMshavedonethisisthatonlypartialimplementationresultsinamorecomplexsalesstructure.

Traditionaldealershipmodel

HQ/wholesale

$

Retailer/dealer

$

Consumer

Online

Retailer

$

$

Callcenter

Agencymodel(light/genuine)

HQ/wholesale

Consumer

$

Platform

Direct-to-consumermodel

Manufacturer

Consumer

Andindeed,someOEMshavelimitedtheagencymodeltoBEVs,increasingcomplexityandactuallyhinderingBEVsales.Thisinitialexperiencehasdemonstratedthatonlyfullimplementationcanensuresuccess.

AfurtherfactorofimportanceisareturntothesalescultureandanevengreaterpriorityonmanagementboardsofOEMs.Withinthepastyear,wehaveseennumerouspersonalchangesinthepositionsatOEMs.Thiscanalsobeseenonthedealershiplevel,wheretrainingandinspiringsalesstaffonsellingBEVshasincreased.

Insummary:Dealershipconsolidationisnecessarygiventheexpecteddeclineinsalesvolumesandreducedservicerevenue.Ahighernumberofdealershipsonlymakestheintroductionofnewprocessesmorecomplicated.Germandealergroupsareespeciallyripeforconsolidation.Theyarerelativelysmall,withthelargestbyturnoverrankingonly20thinEurope,behindthosefromnumerousotherEuropeancountriesandtheUSA.

TheultimateobjectiveforOEMsistocultivatealoyalcustomerbasethatcomesbackformoreproductsandservices.Ase-commercecontinuestogrowinimportance,OEMsmustalsobepreparedtoembraceemergingtrends,forexample,byofferingvehiclesthroughplatformssuchasAmazon.

EmbracingadvancementsinAIwillalsobecrucial.AIcanenhanceapplications,offeropportunitiestostrengthentieswithaudiencesalreadyreceptivetomeaningfulsalesinteractions,andestablisheffectivetwo-waycommunicationchannels.AIcanalsohelptoensurethatfixed,no-hagglepricingisaccurateandcompetitive.

Ingeneral,webelievethatanagencymodel,usingastrong,streamlineddealerbase,isthewayforwardforOEMs.

ElectricVehicleSalesReview

Strategy&Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,MarketingReviewSt.Gallen4/20235

1.Analystinsights

OEMsagencyplansfortheGermanmarket

Brands

Agencymodel

Agencyplans8/2023

Agencyplans1/2025

VWBEVs

Sincein2020

Backtodealershipsby2026

AudiBEVs

Sincein2024

Startin2023

Backtodealershipsby2026

Skoda

No

Open

Cancelled

Seat(Cupra)

Sincein2021

CupraAgencyremains

Porsche

No

MB*+Smart

Sincein2023

BMW

No

Startin2026

Startin2026

Mini

Sincein2024

Startin2024

OtherStellantis

No

Startin2026/2027

Postponedindefinitely

AlfaRomeo,DS

No

Startin2024

Postponedindefinitely

Ford

No

Startin2024

Cancelled

Toyota

No

Renault**

No

Hyundai+Kia

No

Volvo

No

Negotiations

Negotiations

Mazda

No

Startin2025(Jaguar)

Cancelled(Jaguar)

JLR

No

ElectricVehicleSalesReviewStrategy&

*Mercedes-Benz;**RenaultincludingDacia,NissanandMitsubishiSource:PwCAutofacts®analysis,OEMannouncements

6

2.Electricvehiclemarketsoverview

TeslaModelYleadsinallkeymarkets

Top-sellingBEVsinFY2024(rankingchangevs.Q1-Q32024)

EuropeTop4

ModelSalesFY2024

TeslaModelY71,4030

TeslaModel337,6030

SkodaEnyaq32,3532

4

VWID.329,2430

5

VWID.4,ID.528,4273

6PeugeotE-20827,4243

7

Fiat500e26,8631

8BMWiX125,7391

9

MG424,5992

10CupraBorn22,588New

China

ModelSalesFY2024

TeslaModelY

480,309

0

BYDSeagull

453,593

0

BYDYuanPlus

275,223

0

WulingHongguangMiniEV

261,141

0

WulingBingo

206,722

1

TeslaModel3

176,793

1

BYDQinPlusEV

175,637

2

BYDDolphin

160,594

1

AionY

156,503

1

BYDSongPlusEV

152,285

New

USA

ModelSalesFY2024

TeslaModelY

372,613

0

TeslaModel3

189,903

0

FordMustangMach-E

51,745

0

HyundaiIoniq5

44,400

0

TeslaCybertruck

38,965

0

FordF-150Lightning

33,510

1

HondaPrologue

33,017

New

ChevroletEquinox

28,874

New

CadillacLyriq

28,402

1

RivianR1S

26,934

4

ElectricVehicleSalesReview

Strategy&Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,KBA,AAAData,UNRAE,DGT,CPCA,KBB7

2.Electricvehiclemarketsoverview

UpcomingBEVstodrivemarketgrowth

Q12025Q22025Q32025Q42025

Polestar

Kia

EV4

Nissan

Polestar5

Micra

LiAuto

M6

Citroen

C5Aircross

Mercedes-Benz

Porsche

Cayenne

CLAEQ

Renault

4

Fangchengbao

Bao3

Hyundai

ElexioEV

Cadillac

Alpine

A390

Vistiq

ElectricVehicleSalesReview

Strategy&

Source:S&PGlobalMobilityLightVehiclePowertrainProductionForecastDecember2024release8

3.Electricvehiclemarketsanalysis

Electricvehiclesalesgrowthcontinues

FY2023vs.FY2024(inmillion)

2EVs回

8.5

14%

+13%

66%

20%

17%

FY2023FY2024

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

Battery

70%

13%

9.6

3i-EVs图

5.9

5%

3.7

8%

82%

71%

21%

13%

FY2023FY2024

+59%

4

2

6

3

0

5

1

FullandmildhybridEVs

4.8

+19%

24%

16%

18%

58%

58%

FY2023FY2024

4

26%

5.8

4

2

6

3

0

5

1

1

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

FY2023FY2024

+25%

14%

17.0

15%

54%

31%

27%

TotalEVs

59%

21.3

WE5+5ChinaUSA

ElectricVehicleSalesReview

Strategy&Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,localgovernmentalorcarassociationdata9

3.Electricvehiclemarketsanalysis

WesternEurope5+5

EuropeanTop5:France,Germany,Italy,SpainandUK

BEVsalesinthetopfivemarketsdecreasedby5%inQ42024incomparisonwiththeequivalentperiodin2023.AnnualBEVsalesoverthefullyear2024fellby6%comparedwiththeprevioustwelvemonths.

AYoYBEVsalesdecreaseinthetopfivemarketshasnowcontinuedforthelastthreequarters.ThetrendcanbelargelyattributedtotheslumpinthelargeGermanmarket.BEVsalesinGermanyfellbyalmostaquarter(-24%)inQ42024vs.Q42023,whilesalesinthefullyear2024decreasedby27%YoY.Indeed,whenGermanyistakenoutoftheequation,totalcombinedsalesfiguresfortheremainingfourtopmarketsstarttolookaltogetherdifferent–up8%YoYinthefourthquarter,and9%inFY2024.

TheBEVmarketintheUnitedKingdomhasperformedparticularlywelloverthelastyear,up47%inQ42024vs.Q42023and21%inFY2024.However,itisimportanttopointoutthattheUKQ4YoYfigureslookparticularlystrongbecauseOEMsmaywellhaveheldbacksalesinQ42023aheadoftheintroductionoftheZEV*mandateformanufacturersatthestartof2024.ItislikelythatEUfigures,whichweresimilarlysuppressedinQ42024inadvanceoftighterCO2emissionstargetsthatcameintoforceinJanuary2025,couldwellseeasignificantincreaseinthecomingmonths.

With382,000BEVsales,theUKwasthelargestEuropeanmarketintermsofBEVsalesin2024,justbeatingGermany.TheBEVmarketshareintheUKwas20%fortheyear,and26%forQ42024.Forthetopfivemarketsasawhole,theBEVmarketshareswere13%and15%,respectively.

Hybridsalesinthetopfivemarketsincreasedby18%bothduringtheFY2024,andinQ42024vs.Q42023.FranceandSpainwerethetwomarketsmostresponsibleforthisincrease,withannualhybridsalesrisingby36%and30%respectivelyin2024incomparisonwithlastyear.

WE5+5Q42024ComparisontoQ42023

-0%

BEV

457,000

PHEV220,000+2%

Hybrid

+18%

862,000

TotalEV1,539,000+9%

OtherEuropeanmarkets:+5(Austria,Netherlands,Norway,Sweden,

Switzerland)

TheNetherlandsboastedthebest-performingBEVgrowthamongtheotherEuropeanmarkets,upby45%inQ42024vs.Q42023,and16%inFY2024incomparisonwithlastyear.TheNetherlandswasalsothelargestmarketintermsofunitsales,with132,000BEVsalesin2024.However,Norway’sannualBEVmarketsharewasfarhigher,at89%vs.35%intheNetherlands.ThehighestgrowthinhybridsaleswasregisteredinAustria,upby47%YoYinQ42024,andby27%inFY2024vs.FY2023.

ElectricVehicleSalesReviewStrategy&

*Zeroemissionvehicle

Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,localgovernmentalorcarassociationdata10

3.Electricvehiclemarketsanalysis

ChinaandotherAsiancountries

China

BEVsalesinthefourthquarterof2024brokeallrecords,smashingthetwo-millionbarrierforthefirsttimeandalmosthittingsalesof2.5millionunitsowingtoaYoYBEVgrowthof32%.PHEVgrowthwasevenmoreimpressive,upby78%YoY,toreachmorethan1.7millionunits.Forthesecondquarterrunning,morethanoneintwovehiclessoldinChinawereNEVs(BEVs+PHEVs).

Themainreasonfortheparticularlystrongperformanceinthelastquarterwasthatbuyerswerekeentocapitalizeonthevehicletrade-insubsidyscheme,whichwasduetoexpireattheendof2024.Asithappens,thisschemewasextendedonJanuary8fortheyear2025andevenexpanded,withawiderrangeofoldervehiclesthatcannowbetradedinunderthescheme.

PHEVsalesgrewby82%overthecourseofFY2024,andBEVsalesby20%.However,despitethefarhighergrowth,thePHEVmarketshareof19%wasstillsignificantlybelowtheBEVequivalentof26%in2024.

SouthKorea

BEVsaleshavebeenadverselyaffectedbyanincidentinIncheoninAugust2024,whenaBEVcaughtfireinanundergroundparkinglot.BEVsalesfellby19%YoYinQ42024.Thegovernmenthastakenvariousmeasurestorestoreconsumerconfidencethatincludesafetytestingunderabatterycertificationscheme,andgreatertransparencyonthetypeofbatteryusedineachvehicle.Hybridsalesdonotappeartohavesufferedinthesameway,increasingby35%inQ42024vs.Q42023.

ChinaQ42024ComparisontoQ42023

+32%

BEV

2,478,000

PHEV1,714,000+78%

Hybrid

+20%

305,000

TotalEV4,497,000+45%

Japan

TheJapaneseEVmarketcontinuestobedominatedbythesaleofhybrids,withamarketshareof61%overthecourseof2024.ThecombinedmarketshareofBEVsandPHEVsinthesameperiodwasonly3%.Despitethelowstartingpoint,BEVandPHEVsalesactuallyfellin2024,downby23%and17%,respectively.

ElectricVehicleSalesReview

Strategy&Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,localgovernmentalorcarassociationdata11

3.Electricvehiclemarketsanalysis

UnitedStates

BEVsalesgrewby11%inthefourthquarterof2024whencomparedwiththefourthquarterof2023.Partoftheincreasecamefromconsumerswhofearthattheexistingtaxcreditofupto$7,500couldsoonbereducedorcancelledbytheincomingpresidentialadministration.Indeed,December2024brokethenationalrecordforthenumberofmonthlyBEVsales.

BEVgrowthfortheyearasawholewas7%,securinganannualmarketshareof8%.

EventhoughsomePHEVmodelsqualifyforasimilartaxcredit,salesdeclinedby5%inQ42024vs.Q42023,withconsumerspossiblydeterredbythegenerallyhigherpurchasepriceoverICEs.AnotherfactorwascertainlythatsomepopularPHEVmodelslosttheireligibilitytoqualifyinQ42024duetobatterysourcingrequirementstoqualifyforthetaxcredit.PHEVmarketshareforFY2024stoodatjust2%.

Hybridsalesincreasedby45%inthefourthquarterincomparisonwithQ42023,helpingtoensurethatmorethanoneinfive(22%)ofallvehiclessoldintheUnitedStatesinQ42024wereelectrified.

USAQ42024ComparisontoQ42023

+11%

BEV

348,000

PHEV84,000-5%

Hybrid

+45%

479,000

TotalEV910,000*+24%

ElectricVehicleSalesReviewStrategy&

*Numbersmaynotaddupduetorounding

Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,localgovernmentalorcarassociationdata12

3.Electricvehiclemarketsanalysis

Sharesofelectricvehicleregistrations

ElectricvehiclesalesinFY2024

2

Totalsales:25,580,000

EVsales:12,522,000

26%19%

4%

ofwhichBEVs:6,738,000PHEVs:4,840,000Hybrids:944,000

51%49%

China

3

Totalsales:15,896,000

EVsales:3,063,000*

9%

2%

81%

8%

ofwhichBEVs:1,249,000PHEVs:320,000Hybrids:1,495,000

USA

19%

1

Totalsales:10,346,000

EVsales:5,701,000*

7%

55%32%

16%

ofwhichBEVs:1,609,000PHEVs:773,000Hybrids:3,320,000

WE5+5

45%

ICEEVBEVPHEVHybrid

ElectricVehicleSalesReviewStrategy&

*Numbersmaynotaddupduetorounding

Source:PwCAutofacts®analysis,localgovernmentalorcarassociationdata13

4.Electricvehicleproductionforecast

Regionalelectricvehicle*assemblyforecast

2025Fvs.2030F(inmillion,lightvehicles**)

2EVs回

32.4

3%

13%

17%

14.5

11%

62%

25%

17%

2025F2030F

Battery

1%10%

35

30

+123%

42%

25

20

15

10

0

5

Plug-inhybridEVs

5%

7%

8%

8.5

2%4%

78%

75%

12%

6%

2025F2030F

图

3

+61%

13.7

4%

10

12

14

4

2

6

8

0

HybridEVs

23.5

10%

+47%

16.0

5%

41%

33%

16%

17%

12%

16%

30%

20%

2025F2030F

4

25

20

15

10

0

5

TotalEVs

69.6

6%

+79%

21%

39.0

15%

3%

18%

11%

38%

47%

19%

21%

2025F2030F

1

40

20

60

50

30

70

10

0

Western+CentralEuropeChinaNAFTAAsia-Pacific(excl.China)RoW

ElectricVehicleSalesReviewStrategy&

*Electricvehicles=BEV,PHEV(incl.REEV)andhybrid(incl.FHEV,MHEVandSeries-Hybrid);**Incl.passengercarsandlightcommercialvehicles

Source:S&PGlobalMobilityLightVehiclePowertrainProductionForecastDecember2024release14

4.Electricvehicleproductionforecast

Electricvehicle*assemblyforecast

2020-203